Power Grid

[Xring01]

Why should a rate payer in a moderately temperate region of the service territory subsidize the person who chooses to live in the hottest part of the service territory? Why should a rate payer in a low fire risk area with better fire services subsidize the person who live is a rural fire prone part of the territory. Flex alert is basically demand based pricing like Uber. Building full peak supply side infrastructure to give electric welfare to people who choose hard to service locations isn’t a supply and demand model…

Just being the devils advocate here. Monopoly electric utilities are socialist entities from day one, so you can’t just throw in a competition model based on supply and demand at your leisure.

Well I really love this post.. If you are correct
Why in fuck would CA keep building thousands of new homes in the desert when its already identified the higher cost of electricity for those homes.

NOW, LETS TALK ABOUT WATER….

 

[Taboma]

So, ”excessive heat will stress grid”, triggering flex alert.

Meaning one of two things, Supply doesnt meet demand, or the grid was not designed or maintained to handle the heat..

Because if supply met demand and the grid is designed and maintained properly, non need for a flex alert..

CORRECT?

Is it feasible that some if not most of their motivation for such an alert is financially motivated ? That using less power means utilizing less expensive purchasing costs ? That by using more during certain higher demand weather events would cause them to use more expensive options ?
That by mitigating power use, there's also a potential gain in reducing equipment failure ?
I'm sure these for profit based, shareholder owned companies keep a staff of Actuarys clacking away on their keyboards.

I write this not based on industry experience, my occupation was limited to serving the customers not the utilities. Although I had many good SCE and SDG&E engineering acquaintances I met while co-planning large campus infrastructure system designs.

It's obvious you're intelligent and well schooled in this field and have much to contribute. Unfortunately your apparent obsession with rooting for a "See, I told you so" mass system failure, detracts significantly from your delivery.
I had assumed you had a successful career in this field, yet your relentless negativity feels vindictive and reads as if you suffered a humiliating defeat.
Of course I hope that wasn't the case, but I'm struggling to recall a single positive point you've shared. Perhaps there's nothing positive you can share, I get it, I did DOD contracting for years, installed millions of dollars in infrastructure renovation only to have the government decide to shutter the base shortly thereafter. The subsequent head pounding left lumps and dents.

Personally I can only read so much Doom and Gloom, then I'm going to shut it off.

 

[Taboma]

Well I really love this post.. If you are correct
Why in fuck would CA keep building thousands of new homes in the desert when its already identified the higher cost of electricity for those homes.

NOW, LETS TALK ABOUT WATER….

Thank you for helping to make the point of my other post.

 

[mesquito_creek]

Well I really love this post.. If you are correct
Why in fuck would CA keep building thousands of new homes in the desert when its already identified the higher cost of electricity for those homes.

NOW, LETS TALK ABOUT WATER….

Why would CA, AZ, NV, CO, TX ….. And how else is everyone in the “housing crash thread” going to own 4 or 5 rental properties and kick back and rake in the passive income if you don’t build more “supply to meet the demand”!

 

[Xring01]

Is it feasible that some if not most of their motivation for such an alert is financially motivated ? That using less power means utilizing less expensive purchasing costs ? That by using more during certain higher demand weather events would cause them to use more expensive options ?
That by mitigating power use, there's also a potential gain in reducing equipment failure ?
I'm sure these for profit based, shareholder owned companies keep a staff of Actuarys clacking away on their keyboards.

I write this not based on industry experience, my occupation was limited to serving the customers not the utilities. Although I had many good SCE and SDG&E engineering acquaintances I met while co-planning large campus infrastructure system designs.

It's obvious you're intelligent and well schooled in this field and have much to contribute. Unfortunately your apparent obsession with rooting for a "See, I told you so" mass system failure, detracts significantly from your delivery.
I had assumed you had a successful career in this field, yet your relentless negativity feels vindictive and reads as if you suffered a humiliating defeat.
Of course I hope that wasn't the case, but I'm struggling to recall a single positive point you've shared. Perhaps there's nothing positive you can share, I get it, I did DOD contracting for years, installed millions of dollars in infrastructure renovation only to have the government decide to shutter the base shortly thereafter. The subsequent head pounding left lumps and dents.

Personally I can only read so much Doom and Gloom, then I'm going to shut it off.

Obviously your not picking up what I am putting down.
As I have stated many many times.
I do not blame the Utilitys for the Policys that are forced down there throats by the Gov Regulatory bodys.

But that does not change the position the Rate Payers are being put in, especially in CA.

Ca pay almost the highest price, but have some of the lowest reliability, are are being manipulated (based on your post) to reduce there load to make life easier on the Ca ISO and Politicians who do not want to build new Power Plants that are not 100% green.

Everyone reading this needs to Google, the average age of the assets of the power grid… its typically around 47 years old, pending the article you read. With a 30 year design life… meaning alot of that shit can fail the moment its stressed, especially in the hot summer months. Heat and Moisture are the enemy’s of Substation, Transmission and Distribution Assetts

So… red neck math here… If CA already has extremely expensive electricity, with an average age of infrastructure at 47 years old. With those very high rates, the age continues to increase, not decrease. Meaning they are not spending $$$ from the rates, to replace the aging infrastructure.. What could go wrong??? We will get to that later.

But red neck match… if CA, decided to reduce the age of the infrastructure by replacing all of the worn out 47 year old crap, and get that age down to say less than 30 years.. WHAT WOULD THAT DO TO THE ELECTRICITY RATES? Currently time of use peak can be .48cents in some areas, would that increase to $1.48?

That doesnt even factor in the new power that has to be put onto the grid to support all the EVs that are being mandated by Newsome. No new ICE vehicles can be sold in CA by 2035… every Tesla that plugs in to charge is consuming 150kw or higher for 30-40 minutes before it starts to go down. Thats 3-4 average freaking houses….. do some redneck match on how much energy is going to be required just to support the EVs? Hummm do you think the rates will continue to rise? Or go down?

Redneck Math… shit is just not adding up.

High prices followed by no maintenance/replacement, stupid policys, and no true plan on how to dig out of that hole.

Its a freaking problem, but when I sound the alarm, I am the bad guy. Keep drinking the cool aide…

Please google average age of grid assetts… address that question, before calling me the bad guy.

 

[Xring01]

Why would CA, AZ, NV, CO, TX ….. And how else is everyone in the “housing crash thread” going to own 4 or 5 rental properties and kick back and rake in the passive income if you don’t build more “supply to meet the demand”!

I havent really looked at that other thread in a very long time..

But the fact that Ca population is declining, is a huge indicator that people are solving the expensive ca problem by moving to lower costs states… HINT HINT… I did. A key reason why I moved to Reno area. I have threads on that if you chose to read on my savings by moving.

I would not even consider owning rental property’s in CA. NOPE NOPE NOPE.

I read a very interesting article in Bloomberg about two days ago… I will dig up that article and post it..

head lines was to the effect that over 20Million people across the US are over 3 months behind on electricity bills and are about to be shut off.

Do you think the utility rate increases have anything to do with why people cant afford to pay there Utility bills, combine that with overall inflation… owe,,, and we have to continually raise your rates to meet the future green needs… wtf… yes I am being sarcastic.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...n-us-homes-behind-on-payments-facing-shutoffs

 

[mesquito_creek]

I havent really looked at that other thread in a very long time..

But the fact that Ca population is declining, is a huge indicator that people are solving the expensive ca problem by moving to lower costs states… HINT HINT… I did. A key reason why I moved to Reno area. I have threads on that if you chose to read on my savings by moving.

I would not even consider owning rental property’s in CA. NOPE NOPE NOPE.

I read a very interesting article in Bloomberg about two days ago… I will dig up that article and post it..

head lines was to the effect that over 20Million people across the US are over 3 months behind on electricity bills and are about to be shut off.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...n-us-homes-behind-on-payments-facing-shutoffs

Last post you asked why are they building thousands of homes in the desert, now we are in a population decline? Can’t keep up…

I appreciate your dedication to more infrastructure spending, its why I retired in my 50s with a utility funded pension…. Now I leave the hot part of the summers AZ and spend more time on my off grid property up north running my ACs off of solar and batteries. I don’t want to give any of my money back to the utilities after spending 29 years earning it.

 

[Xring01]

Last post you asked why are they building thousands of homes in the desert, now we are in a population decline? Can’t keep up…

I appreciate your dedication to more infrastructure spending, its why I retired in my 50s with a utility funded pension…. Now I leave the hot part of the summers AZ and spend more time on my off grid property up north running my ACs off of solar and batteries. I don’t want to give any of my money back to the utilities after spending 29 years earning it.

Honestly, I truly thank you for dedication and work.
Electricity is very dangerous career, (I hope you still have most of your fingers).

Some of my best friends in the world are Utility Engineers, Lineman, Substation Electricians, etc etc etc.

Its not a 9-5 job, and thank you for your efforts.

Back to Housing…
I moved my daughter down to San Diego recently..
Paying $2200/month sharing a 2 BR 800sq ft small house in PB. So $4400/month total rent which includes her roommate.
When we where searching. San Diego identified they needed to build 30,000 apartments minimum over the next 1 year.

There are lots of problems across the US. In my opinion, having open borders is not gonna help the houseing/water/electricity problems.

When it comes to Eletricity/Utilitys, I have 25 years of experience. So I see lots and lots of Policy/Regulatory gaps, that make the problems worse and alot more expensive for the rate payers. Which piss’s me off. How in the hell are people on social security supposed to afford a $400 electricity bill, when they only get $2000/month. A key reason why 20million people are about to get the power shut off.

Some on this thread dont like me pointing out the facts. None are argueing the average age of the infrastructure, or the costs to the rate payers, or where the price of energy is heading. They just dont want to hear it.

 

[mesquito_creek]

Honestly, I truly thank you for dedication and work.
Electricity is very dangerous career, (I hope you still have most of your fingers).

Some of my best friends in the world are Utility Engineers, Lineman, Substation Electricians, etc etc etc.

Its not a 9-5 job, and thank you for your efforts.

I wasn’t in a dangerous job… I was a bureaucrat in operational technology, but I did build a lot of the IT infrastructure that connected AZ generation assets to the CAISO real time energy imbalance market. So I have a vested interest in seeing a healthy CA rate payer continue to be able to pay their bills.

 

[hallett21]

88 degrees at 9am in the San Fernando Valley. The weather is lovely for those wondering lol

 

[Xring01]

88 degrees at 9am in the San Fernando Valley. The weather is lovely for those wondering lol

yeah… Got you beat.. its 76 in Carson City NV.. ha… and I will take my KRX 1000 for a 50 mile ride after work today. Just open the garage door, and drive into the desert/mountains… Then I will stop on my way home at the Golf Course and have dinner/drinks. While driving my KRX1000.

ohhh and the best part… I am not worried about a flex alert or power outage… at .11cent/kwH.

CRACKING MYSELF UP… I had to do it… Had to.. Hopefully yall see the humor in that..

 

[TCHB]

So, ”excessive heat will stress grid”, triggering flex alert.

Meaning one of two things, Supply doesnt meet demand, or the grid was not designed or maintained to handle the heat..

Because if supply met demand and the grid is designed and maintained properly, no need for a flex alert..

CORRECT?

Many companies sign up for flex programs that help if needed. It is called planning. Have you spent anytime in the ISO or SCE energy management Control centers. Highly complex. I get the feeling you want 100% reliability. It can not happen unless you double generation and double the transmission lines. Never going to happen.

 

[TCHB]

This is right now! Can a main turbine loose a new blade! Yes shit happens. Just ask John FORCE1

Today's Outlook | Demand | California ISO

Monitor real-time grid conditions. View current and historical data for demand, net-demand, supply, renewables, CO2 emissions and wholesale energy prices.

www.caiso.com

 

[hallett21]

This is right now! Can a main turbine loose a new blade! Yes shit happens. Just ask John FORCE1

Today's Outlook | Demand | California ISO

Monitor real-time grid conditions. View current and historical data for demand, net-demand, supply, renewables, CO2 emissions and wholesale energy prices.

www.caiso.com

What’s happening at midnight that’s causing the demand to be roughly the same as 10am today?

 

[Xring01]

Many companies sign up for flex programs that help if needed. It is called planning. Have you spent anytime in the ISO or SCE energy management Control centers. Highly complex. I get the feeling you want 100% reliability. It can not happen unless you double generation and double the transmission lines. Never going to happen.

Nope…
I feel Utility’s should strive for 100%, but no one is perfect.

Regarding the SCE EMS Control Center in Alhambra, over 90% of the SCADA RTU’s that provides all the points, to the GE XA21 Energy Master Station, was provided by me. One of my best friends in life, is the architect of that facility and the other two back up facilitys.

I thought I was quite clear in my thoughts above. Unless the utility’s start spending $$$ to reduce the average age of the infrastructure, then they are prone to more outages. Right now the $$$ is not being spent where it needs to be spent. In addition I believe we need more investment in Base Load Power Plants on the West Coast, to support the goals of EV’s. However I do not think the rate payers can afford to foot that bill. So something/somewhere has to give, or we will continue to overload a 47year system, thats needs to be overhauled, not over loaded.

I answer most of yoru questions, but you really dont return that favor.
Do you think the average age of the infrastrure in CA is not a problem.
Do you think the average rate payer gets what they pay for?
Where do you predict the rates increase’s over the next 10 years?

Again, I have stated many times, FL, GA, Carolinas all have major problems to there grids, but appear to be doing alot better job than the West Coast at much lower rates.

 

[TCHB]

It was a nice day on the golf course.

Nope…
I feel Utility’s should strive for 100%, but no one is perfect.

Regarding the SCE EMS Control Center in Alhambra, over 90% of the SCADA RTU’s that provides all the points, to the GE XA21 Energy Master Station, was provided by me. One of my best friends in life, is the architect of that facility and the other two back up facilitys.

I thought I was quite clear in my thoughts above. Unless the utility’s start spending $$$ to reduce the average age of the infrastructure, then they are prone to more outages. Right now the $$$ is not being spent where it needs to be spent. In addition I believe we need more investment in Base Load Power Plants on the West Coast, to support the goals of EV’s. However I do not think the rate payers can afford to foot that bill. So something/somewhere has to give, or we will continue to overload a 47year system, thats needs to be overhauled, not over loaded.

I answer most of yoru questions, but you really dont return that favor.
Do you think the average age of the infrastrure in CA is not a problem.
Do you think the average rate payer gets what they pay for?
Where do you predict the rates increase’s over the next 10 years?

Again, I have stated many times, FL, GA, Carolinas all have major problems to there grids, but appear to be doing alot better job than the West Coast at much lower rates

Nope…
I feel Utility’s should strive for 100%, but no one is perfect.

Regarding the SCE EMS Control Center in Alhambra, over 90% of the SCADA RTU’s that provides all the points, to the GE XA21 Energy Master Station, was provided by me. One of my best friends in life, is the architect of that facility and the other two back up facilitys.

I thought I was quite clear in my thoughts above. Unless the utility’s start spending $$$ to reduce the average age of the infrastructure, then they are prone to more outages. Right now the $$$ is not being spent where it needs to be spent. In addition I believe we need more investment in Base Load Power Plants on the West Coast, to support the goals of EV’s. However I do not think the rate payers can afford to foot that bill. So something/somewhere has to give, or we will continue to overload a 47year system, thats needs to be overhauled, not over loaded.

I answer most of yoru questions, but you really dont return that favor.
Do you think the average age of the infrastrure in CA is not a problem.
Do you think the average rate payer gets what they pay for?
Where do you predict the rates increase’s over the next 10 years?

Again, I have stated many times, FL, GA, Carolinas all have major problems to there grids, but appear to be doing alot better job than the West Coast at much lower rates.

The utility gets its budgets set by CPUC. Do I think we should spend $billions more on plants and lines. No! This would cause rates to go much higher. Vendors we’re always try to sell AES on reliability but had no clue what the contract specifically spelled put. They could never understand the PPA drove everything. If I told my boss I was shouting for 98% availability he would have fired me Because I was wasting cash on 12 individual units. I have never heard of a 100% capacity/availability contract. It can not happen with old or new units. A lot of times the new units are less reliable than the old steamers.

 

[TCHB]

What’s happening at midnight that’s causing the demand to be roughly the same as 10am today?

I am not sure what is driving the late demand.

 

[Xring01]

https://apple.news/A2k7caftNRDuDjLkNh7FfeQ

HAAAAA… This article was written/posted a few minutes ago, after the posts I made above…and have been making for how long….


Lol…. Cracks me up..
Don’t Charge your car…. But we are mandating EV’s… so how are you supposed to get home or get the kids to practice.

OMG… timing was perfect.

 

[Taboma]

Obviously your not picking up what I am putting down.
As I have stated many many times.
I do not blame the Utilitys for the Policys that are forced down there throats by the Gov Regulatory bodys.

But that does not change the position the Rate Payers are being put in, especially in CA.

Ca pay almost the highest price, but have some of the lowest reliability, are are being manipulated (based on your post) to reduce there load to make life easier on the Ca ISO and Politicians who do not want to build new Power Plants that are not 100% green.

Everyone reading this needs to Google, the average age of the assets of the power grid… its typically around 47 years old, pending the article you read. With a 30 year design life… meaning alot of that shit can fail the moment its stressed, especially in the hot summer months. Heat and Moisture are the enemy’s of Substation, Transmission and Distribution Assetts

So… red neck math here… If CA already has extremely expensive electricity, with an average age of infrastructure at 47 years old. With those very high rates, the age continues to increase, not decrease. Meaning they are not spending $$$ from the rates, to replace the aging infrastructure.. What could go wrong??? We will get to that later.

But red neck match… if CA, decided to reduce the age of the infrastructure by replacing all of the worn out 47 year old crap, and get that age down to say less than 30 years.. WHAT WOULD THAT DO TO THE ELECTRICITY RATES? Currently time of use peak can be .48cents in some areas, would that increase to $1.48?

That doesnt even factor in the new power that has to be put onto the grid to support all the EVs that are being mandated by Newsome. No new ICE vehicles can be sold in CA by 2035… every Tesla that plugs in to charge is consuming 150kw or higher for 30-40 minutes before it starts to go down. Thats 3-4 average freaking houses….. do some redneck match on how much energy is going to be required just to support the EVs? Hummm do you think the rates will continue to rise? Or go down?

Redneck Math… shit is just not adding up.

High prices followed by no maintenance/replacement, stupid policys, and no true plan on how to dig out of that hole.

Its a freaking problem, but when I sound the alarm, I am the bad guy. Keep drinking the cool aide…

Please google average age of grid assetts… address that question, before calling me the bad guy.

What you're "Putting Down" friggin Ray Charles can see.
We're not school children and you've shared this same horse beating till we're all going numb from reading it.

What is it you think these redundant rants are accomplishing ?

Don't you think those of us on this board whom are living in CA because either A. We WANT TO ---- Or B. We have to for various personal reasons, know what's going on around us ?

Who the hell do you think is reading this, the LIBERALS that are voting for Newsome ??
Jesus man, you're treating fellow members like morons, you're singing to the God Damned Choir.

Do what you want, write what you want, and thanks for your valued contribution.

 

[Xring01]

What you're "Putting Down" friggin Ray Charles can see.
We're not school children and you've shared this same horse beating till we're all going numb from reading it.

What is it you think these redundant rants are accomplishing ?

Don't you think those of us on this board whom are living in CA because either A. We WANT TO ---- Or B. We have to for various personal reasons, know what's going on around us ?

Who the hell do you think is reading this, the LIBERALS that are voting for Newsome ??
Jesus man, you're treating fellow members like morons, you're singing to the God Damned Choir.

Do what you want, write what you want, and thanks for your valued contribution.

Again, I answer lots of questions.
Do you think the average age of the grid infrastructure acceptable? If not what is?
How much more do you think the average rate payer in Ca should pay? Or can afford?
If rates are at to expensive now, then where does the $$$ come from to rebuild the grid???

Lets start answering some of my questions for a change, instead of just hating on me?

FACTS ARE FACTS…They are very difficult to debate…
Which is why no one ever answers those questions, but they keep telling you all is good, No Need to Worry…

I am saying there are reasons to be worried, and many have different opinions, but they dont answer the simple questions that I bring to the table…

WHY NOT?

Owe please read the article I posted above before you respond.. cause it outlines alot of what I have been saying… for years on RDP.

 

[CLdrinker]

Money for infrastructure?
How could we afford that?

https://www.erieri.com/executive/salary/pedro-pizarro-4h4i

 

[Xring01]

Money for infrastructure?
How could we afford that?

https://www.erieri.com/executive/salary/pedro-pizarro-4h4i

Nice…
So, is the average age of SCE infrastructure decreasing…with all this spending..

The reason I am asking this question, is when a very good friend of mine (and mentor), was the Manager of Apparatus Engineering at SCE, told me a few years ago, with unprecedented spending, the age was still increasing. His initials are DK, so you should be able to figure out who he is. He retired a few years ago, and is a transformer consultant to them now. That should give you another key hint who he is. I dont want to put his name on the interweb… PM if you want his name.

I worked very closely with him for 20 years on Transformers, Substation Monitoring, Sub Maintenance, and he taught me alot about what I know about transformers…

Owe, a key reason I bring this up.. was If I recall correctly, PG&E CPUC filing basically admitted with all the spending they do, the average age of their infrastrure was increasing not decreasing. Again that was years ago. Not sure if thats still the case today.

Fun fact… I guess about 6 years ago, SCE had a transformer still humming along at over 90 years old. WOW… I doubt its alive today, but lasting 90 years… wow.

 

[CLdrinker]

Nice…
So, is the average age of SCE infrastructure decreasing…with all this spending..

The reason I am asking this question, is when a very good friend of mine (and mentor), was the Manager of Apparatus Engineering at SCE, told me a few years ago, with unprecedented spending, the age was still increasing. His initials are DK, so you should be able to figure out who he is. He retired a few years ago, and is a transformer consultant to them now. That should give you another key hint who he is. I dont want to put his name on the interweb… PM if you want his name.

I worked very closely with him for 20 years on Transformers, Substation Monitoring, Sub Maintenance, and he taught me alot about what I know about transformers…

Owe, a key reason I bring this up.. was If I recall correctly, PG&E CPUC filing basically admitted with all the spending they do, the average age of their infrastrure was increasing not decreasing. Again that was years ago. Not sure if thats still the case today.

Fun fact… I guess about 6 years ago, SCE had a transformer still humming along at over 90 years old. WOW… I doubt its alive today, but lasting 90 years… wow.

I could probably figure it out if I wanted too.

Our standard is to replace transformers over 25yrs old. But we don’t go looking for those. We only deal with them if we are doing another project and come across them.

We are spending a shit load on distribution upgrades. I have planned 13.5m this year. And I’m a small fish in a very big pond.

 

[Xring01]

I could probably figure it out if I wanted too.

Our standard is to replace transformers over 25yrs old. But we don’t go looking for those. We only deal with them if we are doing another project and come across them.

We are spending a shit load on distribution upgrades. I have planned 13.5m this year. And I’m a small fish in a very big pond.

We would all love to hear the answer to the question.
How many billions of spending will it take to start putting a dent in reducing the average age of infrastructure.

We both know, you can spend billions and make no progress at all.

 

[TCHB]

Let’s see if we break the old record demand set in 2005. http://www.caiso.com/todaysoutlook/pages/default.aspx

 

[mesquito_creek]

Who cares if you lose a transformer. Smart meter last gasp register read goes out, notifies distribution operations before the customer barely notices. Circuit switching operator re-routes the circuit in real time. Work order has already been automatically created and trucks are rolling. This is where we invested capital and O&M dollars… not chasing macro metrics like “avg age”.

C level leaders collect JD power awards for customer satisfaction and that’s what the customer wants in terms of reliability.

Our bonuses were based on customer service scores and never once did a customer base tell us they want us to come replace the transformer on their feeder because it was old.

That’s probably why you won’t get your question answered here…

 

[EmpirE231]

The California ISO has issued a statewide Flex Alert for today, Aug. 31, from 4-9 p.m. due to excessive heat and high energy demand. Consumers are encouraged to reduce their energy use to protect grid reliability. Read the news release: https://bit.ly/3PYyU9D

"grid reliability"

plug in those EV's early

 

[mesquito_creek]

@Xring01 So 20 some years ago when the utilities had this same discussion and I had my first white paper published in Transmission and Distribution magazine (remember paper)? It was titled “Reliability Asset Management”, it was focused on distribution asset inspections and how to use this brand new technology called “GIS” to catalog and prioritize pole inspections and direct bury cable replacement. Basically we knew that you couldn’t replace all the failing distribution assets based on age so you had to optimize your inspection process to properly prioritize your capital replacement dollars at the right targets. I distinctly remember meeting the CEO of SCE in Maine at the EEI but I was too focused on double servings of Maine lobster tails to remember his name…. Having said that the program we were on to replace all the failing direct cable with cable in conduit finished on time over the goal of 10 years. Reactive vs proactive maintenance has been on the table as long as I can remember and customers with the most dollars win. Ask big time commercial customers if they are being “flexed” today unless they volunteered..

 

[Xring01]

Who cares if you lose a transformer. Smart meter last gasp register read goes out, notifies distribution operations before the customer barely notices. Circuit switching operator re-routes the circuit in real time. Work order has already been automatically created and trucks are rolling. This is where we invested capital and O&M dollars… not chasing macro metrics like “avg age”.

C level leaders collect JD power awards for customer satisfaction and that’s what the customer wants in terms of reliability.

Our bonuses were based on customer service scores and never once did a customer base tell us they want us to come replace the transformer on their feeder because it was old.

That’s probably why you won’t get your question answered here…

Or maybe its a metric you do not want to be measured on, or be held accountable for?

 

[CLdrinker]

We would all love to hear the answer to the question.
How many billions of spending will it take to start putting a dent in reducing the average age of infrastructure.

We both know, you can spend billions and make no progress at all.

I know off Atleast a billion this year we are doing.
We are doing more than we ever have and are ramping up to continue to do more each number.

I don’t have access the the numbers to answer the questions. All I can tell you is we are going in the right direction but I have no way to know if it’s enough.

 

[Xring01]

@Xring01 So 20 some years ago when the utilities had this same discussion and I had my first white paper published in Transmission and Distribution magazine (remember paper)? It was titled “Reliability Asset Management”, it was focused on distribution asset inspections and how to use this brand new technology called “GIS” to catalog and prioritize pole inspections and direct bury cable replacement. Basically we knew that you couldn’t replace all the failing distribution assets based on age so you had to optimize your inspection process to properly prioritize your capital replacement dollars at the right targets. I distinctly remember meeting the CEO of SCE in Maine at the EEI but I was too focused on double servings of Maine lobster tails to remember his name…. Having said that the program we were on to replace all the failing direct cable with cable in conduit finished on time over the goal of 10 years. Reactive vs proactive maintenance has been on the table as long as I can remember and customers with the most dollars win. Ask big time commercial customers if they are being “flexed” today unless they volunteered..

Then why havent the costs gone down if your doing such a great job for your customers.
From what I see, the rates keeping going up at an alarming rate. And will be going alot higher.
Considering you have some of the highest rates in the county. Please help me understand why you doing such a great job, and the end result is higher rates, and lower reliability, flex alerts????

Please expand on why it should not be compared to FL, GA, Carolinas, or IOUS that have far more natural disasters than SCE or PG&E does.

See, I have lots of questions?

Again, I am not blaming the West Coast IOUs for the problems, I blame the CA PUC and overall Regulations/Policys that force where you invest your $$$.

 

[CLdrinker]

Who cares if you lose a transformer. Smart meter last gasp register read goes out, notifies distribution operations before the customer barely notices. Circuit switching operator re-routes the circuit in real time. Work order has already been automatically created and trucks are rolling. This is where we invested capital and O&M dollars… not chasing macro metrics like “avg age”.

C level leaders collect JD power awards for customer satisfaction and that’s what the customer wants in terms of reliability.

Our bonuses were based on customer service scores and never once did a customer base tell us they want us to come replace the transformer on their feeder because it was old.

That’s probably why you won’t get your question answered here…

I tend to agree. Distribution transformers typically serve 5-15 customers.

Having 50 customers down is no big deal unless you are 1 of them. The money it would cost to prevent that from happening would be astronomical.

We are looking bigger picture.

Customer outage don’t turn into a multi million dollar fire ignition lawsuit.

 

[TCHB]

When SCE sold its Generation to the Private Generators price of energy went way up. SONGs was shut down after a $1Billion dollar mistake and rate payers paid for the early retirement. Mohave was shut down for a lot of reasons but SCE bought the replacement power through new RFPs with private generators. I think the old model of utilities owning the generation was a better model. The utilities are bound by CPUC rate of return of around 10%.. NO IPP would even touch a deal at 10% return on capital investment. Try 25%! Another big cost for California utilities is fire mitigation and fire insurance. The cost for this is huge.

 

[mesquito_creek]

Or maybe its a metric you do not want to be measured on, or be held accountable for?

We are accountable to our customers not metrics…

 

[Danger Dave]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1565046413196529664

 

[mesquito_creek]

Then why havent the costs gone down if your doing such a great job for your customers.
From what I see, the rates keeping going up at an alarming rate. And will be going alot higher.
Considering you have some of the highest rates in the county. Please help me understand why you doing such a great job, and the end result is higher rates, and lower reliability, flex alerts????

Please expand on why it should not be compared to FL, GA, Carolinas, or IOUS that have far more natural disasters than SCE or PG&E does.

See, I have lots of questions?

Again, I am not blaming the West Coast IOUs for the problems, I blame the CA PUC and overall Regulations/Policys that force where you invest your $$$.

The last rate change for the utility I worked for was 2019 and it was a 2.2% decrease… but that could be from making a lot of money on the EIM of CASIO…

 

[TCHB]

Electricity Rates by State | January 2025 | Choose Energy

Discover which state has the highest and lowest kWh costs throughout the country with our January 2025 Electricity Rates Report.

www.chooseenergy.com

 

[Xring01]

The last rate change for the utility I worked for was 2019 and it was a 2.2% decrease… but that could be from making a lot of money on the EIM of CASIO…

Thats awesome, seriously.
I see boatloads of money spent areas that I feel are not in the best interest of the rate payers.

How many Billions of $$$ will be spent through out the US on BESS projects. Every one of them will be paid for by the Rate Payer. Who has no idea what about to hit them, until its to late.. and there rates jump 10%..

And we will have another article just like I posted above, with 20Million people about to have there electricity shut off.

I believe the rank/file Utility Employee is doing one hell of a good job. They do there best, but that does not mean $$$ is being spent where it needs to be spent. Nor does it mean the Regulatory Bodys, have the Rate Payers in mind, when they pass alot of the stupid regulation/policys that force the Utility into spending $$$ on problems that do not exist to meet a political agenda.

 

[mesquito_creek]

Thats awesome, seriously.
I see boatloads of money spent areas that I feel are not in the best interest of the rate payers.

How many Billions of $$$ will be spent through out the US on BESS projects. Every one of them will be paid for by the Rate Payer. Who has no idea what about to hit them, until its to late.. and there rates jump 10%..

And we will have another article just like I posted above, with 20Million people about to have there electricity shut off.

I believe the rank/file Utility Employee is doing one hell of a good job. They do there best, but that does not mean $$$ is being spent where it needs to be spent. Nor does it mean the Regulatory Bodys, have the Rate Payers in mind, when they pass alot of the stupid regulation/policys that force the Utility into spending $$$ on problems that do not exist to meet a political agenda.

I said earlier that all utilities at the end of the day are basically socialist monopolies… I don’t work for the electric utilities anymore. I personally provide my own energy solutions with solar and batteries. In Arizona I just pay my bill to the electric company because it’s still the cheapest solution with high reliability.

On my down time I sit at the bar starting about 1pm and poke fun at the forums of RDP and see what type of reactions I can get.

 

[Xring01]

I tend to agree. Distribution transformers typically serve 5-15 customers.

Having 50 customers down is no big deal unless you are 1 of them. The money it would cost to prevent that from happening would be astronomical.

We are looking bigger picture.

Customer outage don’t turn into a multi million dollar fire ignition lawsuit.

Well what happens when the concept of using EV’s storage capacity to backfeed the grid starts coming to fruition.
How will that impact an older assett that was designed to be step down, and now you reverse flow it and it becomes a Step Up.

Remember the new Buzz Words in the Industry… DER - Distributed Energy Resources, we must flex those assetts in order to meet our green agenda.

Thefore we will be asking alot more of the Distribution System in the future.

I know its coming, I dont think its a good idea, but I have been proven wrong before. Because I foresee lots of distribution failures if this comes to fruition.

Do you think its a real possibility at CA IOUs. PG&E has several projects going right now on this concept. But I still dont see how you can meter a assett thats behind the meter, to infront of the meter, without replacing a whole lot of meters, especially when you consider the new NEM policys that are about to be handed down.

 

[Wolskis]

@TCHB. Does CAISO show the imports?

 

[SoCalDave]

We are on the Edison BIP program here at work and I'm expecting a notification anytime to shed our load. Currently consuming about 1.2MW...24/7...

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1565046413196529664

Watch the BS pie chart tell you “everything is fine” tomorrow .

 

[TCHB]

Thats awesome, seriously.
I see boatloads of money spent areas that I feel are not in the best interest of the rate payers.

How many Billions of $$$ will be spent through out the US on BESS projects. Every one of them will be paid for by the Rate Payer. Who has no idea what about to hit them, until its to late.. and there rates jump 10%..

And we will have another article just like I posted above, with 20Million people about to have there electricity shut off.

I believe the rank/file Utility Employee is doing one hell of a good job. They do there best, but that does not mean $$$ is being spent where it needs to be spent. Nor does it mean the Regulatory Bodys, have the Rate Payers in mind, when they pass alot of the stupid regulation/policys that force the Utility into spending $$$ on problems that do not exist to meet a political agenda.

This is FERC order that has been in place for years Each state follows the FERC for compliance. It takes a army of people to comply.

 

[TCHB]

@TCHB. Does CAISO show the imports?

Yes at the bottom of the page http://www.caiso.com/todaysoutlook/pages/supply.html

 

[mesquito_creek]

Well what happens when the concept of using EV’s storage capacity to backfeed the grid starts coming to fruition.
How will that impact an older assett that was designed to be step down, and now you reverse flow it and it becomes a Step Up.

Remember the new Buzz Words in the Industry… DER - Distributed Energy Resources, we must flex those assetts in order to meet our green agenda.

Thefore we will be asking alot more of the Distribution System in the future.

I know its coming, I dont think its a good idea, but I have been proven wrong before. Because I foresee lots of distribution failures if this comes to fruition.

Do you think its a real possibility at CA IOUs. PG&E has several projects going right now on this concept. But I still dont see how you can meter a assett thats behind the meter, to infront of the meter, without replacing a whole lot of meters, especially when you consider the new NEM policys that are about to be handed down.

In Arizona we replaced smart meters at least 3 times since 2008…. Actually, one of more competitive parts of the business was meter vendors fighting for our business from EAMs to L&G and beyond. DER is a huge emerging industry with smart inverters leading the way. DER is easy but DERM is harder. The M being management systems. The problem isn’t the distribution system, it’s big data and transformation and delivery of the 100s of millions of messages every hour from the smart meter and inverter. It’s a tech problem not an electric problem. OSI systems were a leader from that tech side of the problem. They solved a lot of these problems from the gas and oil industry years ago and are entering into the electric space now.

Like I said, you have the choice of playing with your personal solar generation on your own or connecting to the grid. The most disruptive thing the customer could do with solar is start using it all (batteries) and stop giving away free DER to the utilities..

 

[Xring01]

When SCE sold its Generation to the Private Generators price of energy went way up. SONGs was shut down after a $1Billion dollar mistake and rate payers paid for the early retirement. Mohave was shut down for a lot of reasons but SCE bought the replacement power through new RFPs with private generators. I think the old model of utilities owning the generation was a better model. The utilities are bound by CPUC rate of return of around 10%.. NO IPP would even touch a deal at 10% return on capital investment. Try 25%! Another big cost for California utilities is fire mitigation and fire insurance. The cost for this is huge.

This we 100% agree on.
Deregulation has gone way off the rails in my opinion, resulting in most of the problems I have outlined in my posts.

 

[Xring01]

In Arizona we replaced smart meters at least 3 times since 2008…. Actually, one of more competitive parts of the business was meter vendors fighting for our business from EAMs to L&G and beyond. DER is a huge emerging industry with smart inverters leading the way. DER is easy but DERM is harder. The M being management systems. The problem isn’t the distribution system, it’s big data and transformation and delivery of the 100s of millions of messages every hour from the smart meter and inverter. It’s a tech problem not an electric problem. OSI systems were a leader from that tech side of the problem. They solved a lot of these problems from the gas and oil industry years ago and are entering into the electric space now.

Like I said, you have the choice of playing with your personal solar generation on your own or connecting to the grid. The most disruptive thing the customer could do with solar is start using it all (batteries) and stop giving away free DER to the utilities..

I know alot about DERMS also. Spent some time in my Career in that world.

 

[mesquito_creek]

I know alot about DERMS also. Spent some time in my Career in that world.

The final months of my career were spent scoping and proof of concept for retiring home grown legacy outage management, circuit switching and other distribution systems. 5 year project to implement new vendor platforms for OMS/DERMs etc… The largest problem was that smart meters and smart inverters were owned by customer service not operations. Inside turf wars over who owned the data and who gets to drive the innovation. That was my cue to leave having fought that battle with upgrades to finance systems vs customer systems etc.. over 20 years.

 

[TCHB]

I am hoping this thread will help people understand our power grid And view the daily generation and demand trends.