Power Grid

[TCHB]

July and the temps pic up.

 

[TCHB]

Well another sleepy week and low capacity factors.

 

[TCHB]

Half way thru July. Grid not even working hard.

 

[TCHB]

Texas water grid in trouble.

 

[CLdrinker]

I just want to thank the rate payers.

 

[TCHB]

I just want to thank the rate payers.

That is true!

 

[fishing fool]

Well something changed, we stayed running One by all weekend. Looks like we will stay that way all week.

 

[TCHB]

Yes lots of units Down not needed but still get paid the capacity payments.

 

[TCHB]

 

[mbrown2]

We need some nuclear plants stat.....

1973 Richard Nixon talked about energy independence....build a 1000 nuclear plants by 2000...well that never happened and Europe just turned back on the coal plants as they are struggling due to Russian dependence... crazy how we shutter nuclear, and try and push things that are far less efficient...

 

[sintax]

We need some nuclear plants stat.....

1973 Richard Nixon talked about energy independence....build a 1000 nuclear plants by 2000...well that never happened and Europe just turned back on the coal plants as they are struggling due to Russian dependence... crazy how we shutter nuclear, and try and push things that are far less efficient...

it wont happen...

but you're right. We're around 2-3 decades behind China currently in energy production. They've been rolling out the new pebble bed nuke plants for the last few years, while we go hard towards disposable solar tech, (that is all made in China btw), and doesnt provide anywhere near the output we need.

 

[Xring01]

Texas Grid is in some serious trouble for the next week or so. I just read another article on it.

 

[JJ McClure]

A lot of you guys seem to know about this power grid business. I’m wondering how the Hoover Dam explosion fits into the matrix?

 

[CLdrinker]

Everything is fine

 

[Xring01]

A lot of you guys seem to know about this power grid business. I’m wondering how the Hoover Dam explosion fits into the matrix?

There are a few types of transformers at most Power Plants.
The GSU - Generator Step Up - pending the size of the plant, there is typically 2-4 of them in service with a spare or two. These typically step up the voltage from the Generator from a Low Voltage to a High Voltage to “Transmit” that power on the Transmission lines over longer distances. Due to the “Line Loss’s of Power lines, the Higher the voltage, allows you to increase the Voltage and reduce the ampacity and achieve the goal. They are typically very large, very heavy, hold 20,000 gallons of mineral oil (or alot more) pending the “MVA of the Units.

In addition to the GSU, typical power plants have Auxillery units, that are used for “Station Light & Power” and other items. They are typically alot smaller in size / weight and have a much smaller volume of oil.

That video didnt give me enough info, to determine if it was a GSU or a AUX.

What most people do not know. Is that as transformers age, they get “micro cracks” in the insulation surrounding the copper windings insdie the main tank of the unit. Those micro cracks, create micro arcs in the mineral oil. over time the micro arcs get hotter and hotter and grow like cancer. As they arc, they burn the “mineral oil” and a by product of dissolved gas’s are created. Those disssolved gas’s are highly combustable especially in a “sealed tank”. The industry standard is to conduct routine DGA (dissolved gas analysis) on the mineral oil to determine the health of that unit. As the gas’s increase, you increase the frequency of the DGA’s. A small amount of combustable gas’s is OK, but when the get high enough… you get a very big explosion. Do a youtube search of the transformer explosion at a FL golf corse.. That was an explosion. I will try to look it up and post it here later.

If you watch it till the end.. thats where she BLOWS…

 

[TCHB]

At the power stations we would Test all the big transformers not the small sealed used For things like lighting.
The grid cruising along with average capacity factors.

Today's Outlook | Demand | California ISO

Monitor real-time grid conditions. View current and historical data for demand, net-demand, supply, renewables, CO2 emissions and wholesale energy prices.

www.caiso.com

 

[EmpirE231]

Grid is humming along just fine, normal loads lol

Yet every messaging board I’m on, people are asking about backup generator installs because their power gets shut down for several hours.

I know you’ll say well the grid has capacity… but is it possible that we have this capacity because across CA, entire city blocks are getting no power… while the utilities are doing “maintenance”

Our power was out 3 hours yesterday, my parents the day before for 4 hours, Shinto posted his was out the other day etc etc, yet the pie and bar graphs make it all look peachy.

 

[Dan Lorenze]

Is it possible that Shintooo missed the call from SCE stating that they were doing maintenance that day? I get them regularly but most times they do the work weekdays in the morning.

 

[Riverbottom]

Grid is humming along just fine, normal loads lol

Yet every messaging board I’m on, people are asking about backup generator installs because their power gets shut down for several hours.

I know you’ll say well the grid has capacity… but is it possible that we have this capacity because across CA, entire city blocks are getting no power… while the utilities are doing “maintenance”

Our power was out 3 hours yesterday, my parents the day before for 4 hours, Shinto posted his was out the other day etc etc, yet the pie and bar graphs make it all look peachy.

Quite possibly, power was off for about four hours on Balboa Island yesterday.

 

[Xring01]

Quite possibly, power was off for about four hours on Balboa Island yesterday.

Remember, the average age of the assets powering the US is beyond the “lifespan” is was designed for.
Meaning, there is a high likely hood that something on the distribution system thats feeding your house is old as fuck and could fail at any time. Combine that with higher loads and higher ambient temperatures is a key reason why there are more outages in the summer time than any other time on the west coast.

Equipment failures (transformers/switchs/cables/breakers/cap banks/etc) can and will fail over time. They will kill the pwoer on that line when they fail. There will not be a warning from the utility stating they are about to fail. Because if the utility knew they where about to fail, then they would have replaced it already, or have the mindset of “run to failure”. Which is what alot of utilitys across the US do.

 

[TCHB]

A utility has no reason to run to failure. The more money you spend the more the Utility makes. I have worked on many rate cases and not once PUC said approved first round. There was always major cuts to the utility budgets. The IPP side is all about the details of the PPA. If you have a capacity contract with no penalties for outages and very low threshold for full payment you run it completely differently. I have a friend that just took over a large utility (COO) and one of his main jobs is to increase reliability and handle the rate case. Without the cash it can not improve.

 

[Xring01]

A utility has no reason to run to failure. The more money you spend the more the Utility makes. I have worked on many rate cases and not once PUC said approved first round. There was always major cuts to the utility budgets. The IPP side is all about the details of the PPA. If you have a capacity contract with no penalties for outages and very low threshold for full payment you run it completely differently. I have a friend that just took over a large utility (COO) and one of his main jobs is to increase reliability and handle the rate case. Without the cash it can not improve.

I dare you to have this conversation with NVE….
DARE… DOUBLE DOG DARE….
Especially when feeding the strip…

If NVE see’s a problem coming, and trips the strip offline to perform maintenance and prevent a catastrophic failure. They get sued by the casino’s who force them to prove in court of law they had to trip the line, and do maintenance. Which cost them money regardless of they win or lose due to the legal costs.

If they run to failure, there is no lawsuit. Yes the casinos are down for a longer period of time if they dont have backup power.
Guess which option is cheaper… maintenance or run to failure?

BUT I PROMISE YOU ONE THING… NVE runs to failue… I have dug up the LV strip many times, and installed at least 500,000ft of 138kV/230kV EHV Cables all over Vegas. Provided alot of other assets to them over my career.

There are alot of utilitys who run to failure, for lots of reasons.

Seriously how many utility’s are replacing pole tops/pad mounts based on a condition assessment? Very freaking few, most run to failure. Because the cost outways the benefits. Transmission, Distribution and Substation assetts are all treated differently, due to the business of that utility. IOU/COOP/MUNI’s are all different finance models, which is why they operate there systems differently.

 

[TCHB]

I dare you to have this conversation with NVE….
DARE… DOUBLE DOG DARE….
Especially when feeding the strip…

If NVE see’s a problem coming, and trips the strip offline to perform maintenance and prevent a catastrophic failure. They get sued by the casino’s who force them to prove in court of law they had to trip the line, and do maintenance. Which cost them money regardless of they win or lose due to the legal costs.

If they run to failure, there is no lawsuit. Yes the casinos are down for a longer period of time if they dont have backup power.
Guess which option is cheaper… maintenance or run to failure?

BUT I PROMISE YOU ONE THING… NVE runs to failue… I have dug up the LV strip many times, and installed at least 500,000ft of 138kV/230kV EHV Cables all over Vegas. Provided alot of other assets to them over my career.

There are alot of utilitys who run to failure, for lots of reasons.

Seriously how many utility’s are replacing pole tops/pad mounts based on a condition assessment? Very freaking few, most run to failure. Because the cost outways the benefits. Transmission, Distribution and Substation assetts are all treated differently, due to the business of that utility. IOU/COOP/MUNI’s are all different finance models, which is why they operate there systems differently.

SCE has been replacing poles for 40 years that know. The new power plants are very strict on how many starts, hours and whe maintenance is performed. It is part of the financing agreements.

 

[Xring01]

SCE has been replacing poles for 40 years that know. The new power plants are very strict on how many starts, hours and whe maintenance is performed. It is part of the financing agreements.

I didnt bring Poles into this… Poles are alot different that Pole Top Transformers and Padmount transformers.

The key reasons why these are difficult to perform a condition assessment on, is the fact they have very small volumes of mineral oil in them. Due to that small volume if you did perform a DGA, you would have to de energize that unit and you would have to replenish the oil that your drained from that unit after that DGA.

I do not know of one IOU on the WEST COAST that does DGA’s on their Pole Tops or Padmounts…. NOT one, and a good friend of mine invented a product that creates a “drain port” for these type of units that can be installed in the field. But he cannot sell them.

Why…. Because its cheaper to run to failure on those assetts. The cost of maintenance is way to high compared to the replacedment cost.

Thinks about the cost of a 2500kva 12kV/480v padmount…
Lets say its $30k for arguements sake. We both know its alot cheaper.. .closer to $20k than 30K… But use $30k for this..

Now what does it cost for a SCE Union crew to perform annual maintenance on that unit/year.
Can you do that maintenance for less than $1000/year, when you factor in everything it costs for that crew to be in the field.
Then multiply that number times 30 years… which is the “design life” of that unit.

If you have 400,000 padmounts and 400,000 pole tops, how many more trained union crew do you need to hire just to maintain those assetts. How many more trucks/tools/safety equipment/ training staff/ HR Staff/ Management….

See… numbers dont add up… cheaper to run to failure.

Owe, and the Pole situation is an entirely different cost/benefit model… its completely apples/oranges to this conversation. But I am willing to dig in if you want to.

 

[TCHB]

Poles are alot different that Pole Top Transformers and Padmount transformers.
The key reasons why these are difficult to perform a condition assessment on, is the fact they have very small volumes of mineral oil in them. Due to that small volume if you did perform a DGA, you would have to de energize that unit and you would have to replenish the oil that your drained from that unit after that DGA.

I do not know of one IOU on the WEST COAST that does DGA’s on their Pole Tops or Padmounts…. NOT one, and a good friend of mine invented a product that creates a “drain port” for these type of units that can be installed in the field. But he cannot sell them.

Why…. Because its cheaper to run to failure on those assetts. The cost of maintenance is way to high compared to the replacedment cost.

Thinks about the cost of a 2500kva 12kV/480v padmount…
Lets say its $30k for arguements sake. We both know its alot cheaper.. .closer to $20k than 30K… But use $30k for this..

Now what does it cost for a SCE Union crew to perform annual maintenance on that unit/year.
Can you do that maintenance for less than $1000/year, when you factor in everything it costs for that crew to be in the field.
Then multiply that number times 30 years… which is the “design life” of that unit.

See… numbers dont add up… cheaper to run to failure.

Owe, and the Pole situation is an entirely different cost/benefit model… its completely apples/oranges to this conversation. But I am willing to dig in if you want tI thought

I thought you were talking about power plant main transformers not the the shopping mall small transformers or local neighborhood small units. The transformers that I delt with were on 500 MW machines. My one station alone had over 2,000MWs output. In the 50 years now we only lost one main transformer from a internal fault. It happened at year 14 in service.

 

[CLdrinker]

I happen to know a thing or 2 about SCE maintenance...

We don’t check oil on any of the distribution transformers that I know of. Maybe specific very large important customers but that would not be the norm.

Our standard for overhead transformers. I’d if you are replacing the pole and the transformer is over 25yrs it gets replaced period.

You guys would be very surprised how much money we spend on infrastructure upgrades each year.

Yes it’s not uncommon for power to go out. Especially in Metro west where infrastructure is much older.
But think about this. If we warn you and do maintenance and your power is off the customer is upset. If the power goes out due to failure the customer gets upset. If a car hits a structure and knocks out power the customer gets upset.
If a fire starts because of our asset the customer gets upset. If we turn the power off to prevent fires the customer gets upset.
If we raise rates to upgrade infrastructure customers get upset.

There are many employees that work their tail off every day to plan upgrades to make the grid more reliable day in and day out.
We are far from perfect but we are getting better.

 

[Xring01]

Well, In my prior posts, I was talking about distribution transformers, because the posts above where talking about small distribution outages. So I was filling them in on those devices/failures/maintenance practices.

But I have experience on all sized of transformers, thru 765kV. And units that had shipping weights of over 600,000lbs.

Saying that, doesnt change the fact that NVE runs transmission assetts to failure. If you look back about 8 years ago ish… The Sinatra Substation on Frank Sinatra drive just behind the Belagio is a prime example of a transformer burning to the ground.

 

[TCHB]

Not exactly sure on the specific contracts the different casinos have with their energy supplier. I know a couple of the big ones have direct power with IPPs. https://www.reviewjournal.com/busin...megawatt-solar-power-array-on-monday-2388379/

 

[Xring01]

I happen to know a thing or 2 about SCE maintenance...

We don’t check oil on any of the distribution transformers that I know of. Maybe specific very large important customers but that would not be the norm.

Our standard for overhead transformers. I’d if you are replacing the pole and the transformer is over 25yrs it gets replaced period.

You guys would be very surprised how much money we spend on infrastructure upgrades each year.

Yes it’s not uncommon for power to go out. Especially in Metro west where infrastructure is much older.
But think about this. If we warn you and do maintenance and your power is off the customer is upset. If the power goes out due to failure the customer gets upset. If a car hits a structure and knocks out power the customer gets upset.
If a fire starts because of our asset the customer gets upset. If we turn the power off to prevent fires the customer gets upset.
If we raise rates to upgrade infrastructure customers get upset.

There are many employees that work their tail off every day to plan upgrades to make the grid more reliable day in and day out.
We are far from perfect but we are getting better.

I have had the pleasure to work with many of guys at SCE over the years, and they have taught me alot of what I know today.
I am a huge supporter of the Utility’s and I feel the regulatory bodys are forcing the utility’s to spend their budgets in areas that sacrifices the replacement/maintenance budgets.

WHICH IS A KEY REASON WHY THE AVERAGE OF OF THE ASSETTS IS BEYOND ITS DESIGN LIFE…

I am not blaming SCE for the CPUC/NERC/FERC/CONGRESS/GOVERNORS or any of the other idiots that force stupid policys.

Its just where we are today, and as I know the average age is increasing, not decreasing. THATS ANOTHER MAJOR PROBLEM, meaning we are just kicking the can down the road further.

To clarify… I am also referencing NATION WIDE assett age… not just SCE/PGE/SDGE. Politicians are way to short sited and pushing a green agenda without focusing on costs to consumer or the impacts to the grid.

I was a SCE customer from 1997-2022…. Lived in Murrieta CA… but today, I live in Reno… and I pay almost 11cents/kwh… My electricity bill dropped by 70%… SCE and NVE are both IOU’s why is there such a huge difference in the costs to the rate payers…. Yep bad CA policys of deregulation/renewable goals.

 

[TCHB]

I have had the pleasure to work with many of guys at SCE over the years, and they have taught me alot of what I know today.
I am a huge supporter of the Utility’s and I feel the regulatory bodys are forcing the utility’s to spend their budgets in areas that sacrifices the replacement/maintenance budgets.

WHICH IS A KEY REASON WHY THE AVERAGE OF OF THE ASSETTS IS BEYOND ITS DESIGN LIFE…

I am not blaming SCE for the CPUC/NERC/FERC/CONGRESS/GOVERNORS or any of the other idiots that force stupid policys.

Its just where we are today, and as I know the average age is increasing, not decreasing. THATS ANOTHER MAJOR PROBLEM, meaning we are just kicking the can down the road further.

To clarify… I am also referencing NATION WIDE assett age… not just SCE/PGE/SDGE. Politicians are way to short sited and pushing a green agenda without focusing on costs to consumer or the impacts to the grid.

I was a SCE customer from 1997-2022…. Lived in Murrieta CA… but today, I live in Reno… and I pay almost 11cents/kwh… My electricity bill dropped by 70%… SCE and NVE are both IOU’s why is there such a huge difference in the costs to the rate payers…. Yep bad CA policys of deregulation/renewable goals.

I was right in the middle of deregulation and it was a huge mess.

 

[TCHB]

Almost August and the Grid has been going it’s job. Capacity factors continue to be low and price of power not too bad considering natural gas prices close to record highs. http://www.caiso.com/todaysoutlook/pages/default.aspx

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Grid is humming along just fine, normal loads lol

Yet every messaging board I’m on, people are asking about backup generator installs because their power gets shut down for several hours.

I know you’ll say well the grid has capacity… but is it possible that we have this capacity because across CA, entire city blocks are getting no power… while the utilities are doing “maintenance”

Our power was out 3 hours yesterday, my parents the day before for 4 hours, Shinto posted his was out the other day etc etc, yet the pie and bar graphs make it all look peachy.

The grid has plenty of capacity when the power goes offline and they are doing rolling blackouts

I think I said it before in here but that bar graph and pie chart will never show the grid is out of capacity.

 

[CLdrinker]

Electricity and water are allot alike.

We can’t charge you more if there isn’t a problem....

 

[TCHB]

We go into August with plentyof real time capacity. Almost time to take the units down-for annual maintenance cycles.

 

[TCHB]

Hot week in a pretty big area and schools back in session. http://www.caiso.com/todaysoutlook/pages/default.aspx

 

[Taboma]

Hot week in a pretty big area and schools back in session. http://www.caiso.com/todaysoutlook/pages/default.aspx

Would seem that Labor Day weekend temps for most all of CA could be punishing. I'm optimistic, but I think I'll fill up a couple of gas cans I've allowed to get a bit low --- oh and fire up the baby Honda, as it's getting to be that time of the year again.

 

[Xring01]

https://apple.news/ATv-TL63eQ06BoA0bCt_lnw

 

[TCHB]

Would seem that Labor Day weekend temps for most all of CA could be punishing. I'm optimistic, but I think I'll fill up a couple of gas cans I've allowed to get a bit low --- oh and fire up the baby Honda, as it's getting to be that time of the year again.

The weekends and especially holiday weekends drop demand.

 

[TCHB]

Here is the forward trend. Lots of capacity. At this time many power plants that get paid for capacity will start up and sit at low loads until needed. http://www.caiso.com/todaysoutlook/pages/default.aspx#section-ra-capacity-trend

 

[Taboma]

The weekends and especially holiday weekends drop demand.

The high local temps clear to the beach as forecast for this weekend, will "Test" the local distribution components, aside from the grid capacity.

 

[Danger Dave]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564774571244265473

 

[Xring01]

Watching Fox News…
Tucker just reported that Ca will have Rolling Blackouts / Flex Alerts tomorrow….

CAISO didnt show it… wondering how they got there info?

 

[TCHB]

1. flex alerts are normal. People get a break on their bill if they need their air conditioner or pool flexed for a about a hour. My sister is a flex customer for the past 11 years and has been flexed 4 hours in total.
Tucker is all about ratings.
Grid not even pushed yet.

 

[TCHB]

10,000 MWs lower than a all time peak.

Today's Outlook | Demand | California ISO

Monitor real-time grid conditions. View current and historical data for demand, net-demand, supply, renewables, CO2 emissions and wholesale energy prices.

www.caiso.com

 

[TCHB]

Alerts

https://www.caiso.com/Documents/Emergency-Notifications-Fact-Sheet.pdf

 

[Xring01]

1. flex alerts are normal. People get a break on their bill if they need their air conditioner or pool flexed for a about a hour. My sister is a flex customer for the past 11 years and has been flexed 4 hours in total.
Tucker is all about ratings.
Grid not even pushed yet.

Normal for Ca…

If supply met demand, then why is there a Flex Alert…

I agree you CAISO Chart shows something different.

Bottom Line is quite simple for me. There is no need for a Flex alert if Supply met demand. Flex Alerts prove the grid is being pushed pretty hard, which creates the Flex Alert.

 

[FreeBird236]

Right now Tucker's on a mission to show what's happening to energy in Europe and show what's possible here if we move away from fossil fuel too fast.

 

[TCHB]

Normal for Ca…

If supply met demand, then why is there a Flex Alert…

I agree you CAISO Chart shows something different.

Bottom Line is quite simple for me. There is no need for a Flex alert if Supply met demand. Flex Alerts prove the grid is being pushed pretty hard, which creates the Flex Alert.

In 2000 the alerts started to change at different points. The utilities were made to come up contingency plans and alerts for all kinds of things including earthquakes where we loose load.

 

[mesquito_creek]

Normal for Ca…

If supply met demand, then why is there a Flex Alert…

I agree you CAISO Chart shows something different.

Bottom Line is quite simple for me. There is no need for a Flex alert if Supply met demand. Flex Alerts prove the grid is being pushed pretty hard, which creates the Flex Alert.

Why should a rate payer in a moderately temperate region of the service territory subsidize the person who chooses to live in the hottest part of the service territory? Why should a rate payer in a low fire risk area with better fire services subsidize the person who live is a rural fire prone part of the territory. Flex alert is basically demand based pricing like Uber. Building full peak supply side infrastructure to give electric welfare to people who choose hard to service locations isn’t a supply and demand model…

Just being the devils advocate here. Monopoly electric utilities are socialist entities from day one, so you can’t just throw in a competition model based on supply and demand at your leisure.

 

[Xring01]

In 2000 the alerts started to change at different points. The utilities were made to come up contingency plans and alerts for all kinds of things including earthquakes where we loose load.

So, ”excessive heat will stress grid”, triggering flex alert.

Meaning one of two things, Supply doesnt meet demand, or the grid was not designed or maintained to handle the heat..

Because if supply met demand and the grid is designed and maintained properly, no need for a flex alert..

CORRECT?