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Power Grid

hallett21

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Of course..
So ironically in this little family. We have people who broker electricity and who privately contract high voltage distribution.

So I get two sides and to be fair the broker is my age, while the contractor is 60+ and carries contracts worth more than 7 figures a year.

It’s crazy that the guy distributing the electricity is worried 😉.
 

hallett21

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I wish I had seen the website you posted sooner. At a minimum it’s fun to see how the grid cycles throughout the day.

I don’t think it was on purpose but I asked you in post #22 about grid capacity. Is that a hardline number or does that fluctuate?

I’m in agreement that the grid can run for 98% of the time with no issues. But the last 2% can sometimes be a real issue. Not trying to be doom and gloom just trying to be realistic.

Obviously it’s very easy to call the Texas freeze a once in a lifetime scenario. Unless of course you lived through it and had your home ruined.

And to be clear 90% of my clients are in a location that will be shut down due to fire/wind. So I have a business bias.
@TCHB
 

hallett21

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I just did this because why not.

I’m more than happy to show a step by step video from start up to disconnect and everything in between.

The point of the video was to show what a Honda 7,000 can handle.


 
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Justfishing

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I don’t care what the cost of the bill is so long ass they can keep the power on when it actually counts. It’s easy when demand is low. Let’s see if they have the brains and fortitude when we hit a heat wave.
That is bullshit. You may be able to afford it but many others cant.

Provide quality service at affordable rate. They are no different than any other bussiness. The regulators and providers need to get it done
 

rivrrts429

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That is bullshit. You may be able to afford it but many others cant.

Provide quality service at affordable rate. They are no different than any other bussiness. The regulators and providers need to get it done

I don’t disagree with that position but I can only see so far as my own battles when it comes to the power grid. It’s fucked for anybody in the lower income segments. I have no answer how to solve it when the board members of these PUC’s are unelected thieves.
 

Xring01

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Also what happened to @Xring01
Doing my best not to beat a dead horse… cause I have beat that fucker to death…

I read more and more articles on a daily basis, backing up my positions..

Hell have you see the price of coal in the last 18 months… up 110%… Mid West and Texas are predicting major outages this summer.
If anyone wants to read the latest 80 page article, pm me… its very enlightening regarding how the Distribution grid is not up to the standards being asked of it. I think its was written by the Dept of Energy…

Again, not trying to beat that horse after its dead…

Couldnt help myself.. here is the article I mentioned.

https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2022-05/A system in transition_5.13.22_web.pdf
 

hallett21

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Doing my best not to beat a dead horse… cause I have beat that fucker to death…

I read more and more articles on a daily basis, backing up my positions..

Hell have you see the price of coal in the last 18 months… up 110%… Mid West and Texas are predicting major outages this summer.
If anyone wants to read the latest 80 page article, pm me… its very enlightening regarding how the Distribution grid is not up to the standards being asked of it. I think its was written by the Dept of Energy…

Again, not trying to beat that horse after its dead…
Just wanted to make sure you’re not living in a van down by the river lol 😆
 

brianwhiteboy

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I just did this because why not.

I’m more than happy to show a step by step video from start up to disconnect and everything in between.

The point of the video was to show what a Honda 7,000 can handle.


Definitely curious to see more of your set up.

I work at a power plant for L.A. DWP and I’m definitely investing in another genny. I know how quickly generation can come offline and stay off....and for reasons most people wouldn’t understand.

I’ve had my Honda 7000 on order for a month now. It’s supposed to ship the first week of July 🤞 Just bought a 10 circuit transfer switch I need to wire up too.

While I have faith in LA DWP to provide uninterrupted power, I’m on Edison and trust them a lot less.
 

Xring01

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Definitely curious to see more of your set up.

I work at a power plant for L.A. DWP and I’m definitely investing in another genny. I know how quickly generation can come offline and stay off....and for reasons most people wouldn’t understand.

I’ve had my Honda 7000 on order for a month now. It’s supposed to ship the first week of July 🤞 Just bought a 10 circuit transfer switch I need to wire up too.

While I have faith in LA DWP to provide uninterrupted power, I’m on Edison and trust them a lot less.
Really,,,
Thats some funny shit right there…
LADWP by buys its assets from the lowest bidder, from the country’s that can’t spell QA, or compliance to specifications.
Trust me when I say I have personally installed transformer monitoring equipment on your larger substation transformers that where less than 5 years old… You guys bought 5 of them from the same manufacturer within 5 years 2 had already blown up, and they wanted to install monitors on the other 3. When we energized one of the monitoring units, it immediately when into an alarm mode. Your substation techs tried to blame the monitoring equipment… Which prevented us from installing the other 2 sites..

Guess what happened 3 months later… I dare you to.. Yep the one that went into alarm mode… failed….. If memory is correct it was K or L Substation… I would have to dig into my files… yes, I have all the drawings… ALL…

We are talking about 150MVA size transformers that are supposed to last 30 years or more… 3 out of 5 failed in less than 5 years, and you think your system is more reliable than SCE… NICE… Pass that bong… please…

Do not get me started on LADWP… I can name NAMES…The guy that shut down the monitoring program… got a promotion after the 3 unit failed…. His first name is David… I will not list his last name on public forum… But you should easily be able to figure out who he is… Because we both know there are not many Davids at LADWP.
 
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DRYHEAT

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I just did this because why not.

I’m more than happy to show a step by step video from start up to disconnect and everything in between.

The point of the video was to show what a Honda 7,000 can handle.


Just curious what the ambient temperature is when you ran that test? I’m curious if it would work out here in Havasu when it’s 120° not knocking Hondas. I’m sure with the increased heat the loads would be higher, maybe maybe not. I’m not criticizing I’m just curious if it would work in my situation.
 

monkeyswrench

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In terms of grid stability or fragility, what are the weakest links? Power generation can be an issue due to "climate change", but then what? Hardware within the substations? Transformers near the end use? Too many extension cords plugged into one receptacle in the kitchen?

Aside from wildfires and Russian EMP's, what causes big outages?
 

monkeyswrench

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Just curious what the ambient temperature is when you ran that test? I’m curious if it would work out here in Havasu when it’s 120° not knocking Hondas. I’m sure with the increased heat the loads would be higher, maybe maybe not. I’m not criticizing I’m just curious if it would work in my situation.
We used Honda 10k's on jobsites roofing. Multiple hot air welders, long (100-150ft) cords, in direct sunlight at 100-110 degrees ambient Temps. I'd have to look at the heat guns to see what the draw was...but anything under a 30amp breaker would trip at welding temp on a single unit? If the genny was in open air, no problem at all. If it were confined in any way, it would start to thermal...start surging. I think that was from hot air intake, but no real proof. We'd run them 8hrs straight, never on auto idle, just ramped up.
Not quite Havasu hot, but some good abuse.
 

Xring01

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In terms of grid stability or fragility, what are the weakest links? Power generation can be an issue due to "climate change", but then what? Hardware within the substations? Transformers near the end use? Too many extension cords plugged into one receptacle in the kitchen?

Aside from wildfires and Russian EMP's, what causes big outages?
Dude… you guys want me to re kill the dead horse again…

The average age of the Power Grid powering the United States today… is about 47 years old, depending on where you quote the data… But no one states its less than 40 years old…

The industry standard on the “design life” of those grid assets is 30 years… Therefore the average age of the grid is 17 years passed the point is was supposed to be replaced…

But hold one there a bit…

When that equipment was installed 47 years ago… is was not operated like its being operated today. Back then, the equipment was way over engineered and sized for the application. What do I mean… If a 15MVA transformer was need for the area. A 25-30 MVA transformer was installed. To support future growth and “margin”…

Well in todays world when that 30 MVA transformer finally fails. The utilitys in the Urban areas can not install a larger transformer to meet the needs of the substation or the community. Why… because its in an urban area, and there are houses next to that substation, which limits the size of the assets that can be intalled, and the utility can not expand the footprint of the substation.

Where am I going with this.. The utility is forced to replace a 15 MVA with a 15 MVA, knowing they need a bigger one, because the substation will not fit a larger unit. Therefore they overload the shit out of the new unit, knowing that its not going to last the 30 year design life like the units that where installed 47 years ago.

The grid is operating at a much higher ampacity than in the past, of when those substations where designed, with no way to upgrade that substation.

NERC/FERC is hoping we can operate the distribution system as in ways its not designed to do. Hoping that BESS solutions can be installed fast enough to prevent the problems I have outlined 100x. The Transmission systems are being taxed hard, because no one in CA/West Coast/NY/NJ/CT etc etc etc, wants a Power plant in there back yard, so they rely on importing more and more energy after dark. The substations and power plants have been covered by me in many posts… over and over again.. thats a dead fucking horse.

These are real problems that are getting worse, but the good news is that the national news agencys are starting to catch on to the problem. Fox news has had many segments on this recently.

Its a major problem, and people will die. No doubt about it.

Then factor in the price of the fuel for Nat Gas / Coal, and how it impacts the cost of electricity… simple fucking math… fuel costs have more than doubled since Biden took office… So where do you think energy prices are headed??? Up/down… combine that with the cost of gasoline…

This is gonna hurt… not a little bit… a whole lot.
 

fishing fool

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Well here we go again. Just shut down 160mw and in 2hrs we will shut down anoher 223mw CT and ST
 

Xring01

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Well here we go again. Just shut down 160mw and in 2hrs we will shut down anoher 223mw CT and ST
What is the average age of those assets, of the Power plants you referenced? 20, 25? Will they be allowed to repower at 25-30years?
Would you say they are maintained properly?
Who owns those assets? A utility or a Independent Power Producer?

Have you seen the data from New Mexico recently and there reserves for this summer. Last I saw they where short over 20% of the needed power.
Any thoughts on problems in Texas about 3 weeks ago? 3 Plants where down for maintenance and they almost had rolling blackouts. That was May, not Aug? There grid was maxed out.

Any thoughts on the recent articles regarding the shortages of power generation in the Mid West?

What happens to the West Coast if another wild fire shuts show BPA this summer? How longs with West Coast grid be able to support the lack of import capacity from that 500kv Inter-tie?

Any thoughts on the impacts of the reduction of Hydro Capacity on the West Coast due to the water shortages at the major lakes in the west and the reduced capacity of the Co River.

Do you think the strategy of BESS is economically feasible based on the cost of those assets, versus the limitation of the power they can relay back to the grid. How will the impacts of supply chain for rare earth minerals impact the costs/lead times of BESS?

What are the long term impacts of reverse flowing a distribution system. How much will it age those assets? What are those cost implications. Reliability Implications?

I have lots of questions… LOTs.
 

fishing fool

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Maybe 20 years old but was shut down for years because "no one wanted to buy the power". VERY well maintained by a large power company that is across the United States.

What is the average age of those assets, of the Power plants you referenced? 20, 25? Will they be allowed to repower at 25-30years?
Would you say they are maintained properly?
Who owns those assets? A utility or a Independent Power Producer?

Have you seen the data from New Mexico recently and there reserves for this summer. Last I saw they where short over 20% of the needed power.
Any thoughts on problems in Texas about 3 weeks ago? 3 Plants where down for maintenance and they almost had rolling blackouts. That was May, not Aug? There grid was maxed out.

Any thoughts on the recent articles regarding the shortages of power generation in the Mid West?

What happens to the West Coast if another wild fire shuts show BPA this summer? How longs with West Coast grid be able to support the lack of import capacity from that 500kv Inter-tie?

Any thoughts on the impacts of the reduction of Hydro Capacity on the West Coast due to the water shortages at the major lakes in the west and the reduced capacity of the Co River.

Do you think the strategy of BESS is economically feasible based on the cost of those assets, versus the limitation of the power they can relay back to the grid. How will the impacts of supply chain for rare earth minerals impact the costs/lead times of BESS?

What are the long term impacts of reverse flowing a distribution system. How much will it age those assets? What are those cost implications. Reliability Implications?

I have lots of questions… LOTs.
 

Xring01

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Maybe 20 years old but was shut down for years because "no one wanted to buy the power". VERY well maintained by a large power company that is across the United States.
So its an IPP…. Without a PPA??? Wow, they must have bought it at a damn good deal to take that risk. I doubt they built it from scratch without a PPA.
Will it be allowed to repower at the appropriate time?
No cooling water hurdles to overcome?
If no PPA, what are the impacts to your energy pricing with the recent increases of Nat Gas prices?
Are you guys spot bidding the market?
If so, then the ROI is all based on profits of the high summer demand costs in 3-4 months out of the year…
Ahhh… starting to figure this one out. Operating it like a peaker plant right?
Just waiting for $5000/mWh peak rate… and rake in that money…
 
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hallett21

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Definitely curious to see more of your set up.

I work at a power plant for L.A. DWP and I’m definitely investing in another genny. I know how quickly generation can come offline and stay off....and for reasons most people wouldn’t understand.

I’ve had my Honda 7000 on order for a month now. It’s supposed to ship the first week of July 🤞 Just bought a 10 circuit transfer switch I need to wire up too.

While I have faith in LA DWP to provide uninterrupted power, I’m on Edison and trust them a lot less.
I’ll try and do a more thorough video showing start to finish. That video was tonight and nothing was over 80 degrees.

House is 1,111 sq ft on record. HVAC is on a 30amp service. House is 100% LED lighting.

I’m fully confident that the Honda can run most households. HVAC being the question mark.
 

monkeyswrench

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20220531_194201.jpg

Others here are doing a gas powered back up generator. Some have solar with battery back up. I finally started amassing parts for my back up. Been rather interesting...
 

hallett21

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View attachment 1123520
Others here are doing a gas powered back up generator. Some have solar with battery back up. I finally started amassing parts for my back up. Been rather interesting...
I’m installing a 24kw in Malibu tomorrow. Part of the issue is the size of the home. Eventually the portable generators do not have the capability.
 

monkeyswrench

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I’m installing a 24kw in Malibu tomorrow. Part of the issue is the size of the home. Eventually the portable generators do not have the capability.
Luckily, my home is pretty modest. My main concerns are the freezers and the well pump. Solar array is going to start out at 3650w with a 6k split phase inverter and a couple of 5.1Kwh 48v batteries. All of that stuff will be mounted on a "hay wagon" type utility cart. Basically, a large solar generator. In my case, I have open space around my house. In the cities, no way to position something like this....panels out will be almost 25ft long.
 

530RL

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Putting aside transmission and delivery costs, the greatest cost is the plant itself.

For example the Palo Verde Nuclear plant cost 5.6 billion in 76 or over 15 billion today.

The avoided cost of electricity out of Palo Verde, basically just the cost of producing power without the capital expenditure of the plant is about 1.33 cents per kilo watt hour. A price we wold all love to pay. However the reality is that the plant must be put in the calculation which raises all our costs well above 1.33 cents per KW.

Everyone wants power at all times, even at peak demand. But few want to pay for excess capacity in the system.

The economic truth is that to have the lowest cost of electricity to the customer, you can not have ”excess” capacity in the sytem as that raises costs dramatically as rate payers must pay for expensive plant sitting idle.

So utilities know that they have to balance the cost of capital of having excess capacity with what the consumer wants to pay and/or regulators will allow in the rate base. And that means during real high demand, or natural incidences such as fire, the power is going off.

The alternative is build a bunch of excess capacity and put it in the rate base, but no one wants to put that in the rate base and pay for it. And then add in what others have brought up such as highly aged distribution systems, and the fight for capital dollars versus total costs becomes a tough economic reality.

There is no such thing as a free lunch.
 

brianwhiteboy

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Do not get me started on LADWP… I can name NAMES…The guy that shut down the monitoring program… got a promotion after the 3 unit failed…. His first name is David… I will not list his last name on public forum… But you should easily be able to figure out who he is… Because we both know there are not many Davids at LADWP.
You are absolutely “right” :cool:
 

Taboma

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I just did this because why not.

I’m more than happy to show a step by step video from start up to disconnect and everything in between.

The point of the video was to show what a Honda 7,000 can handle.


Very good video sir 👍 I was wondering what that Honda sounded like under load, specs claim 52-58 dba. One chart I read lists 55 db as equivalent to a household refrigerator --- ummmm, not the one running in my kitchen thank God !!!!!! 😁
Impressed with the genny, 120/240V 7000W max. (58.3/29.1A) 5500W rated (45.8/22.9A), seems the 6300 isn't where you'd want to run this at for too long, unless you take one of those large patio fans and give it a blow job. 😁
 
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mesquito_creek

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Luckily, my home is pretty modest. My main concerns are the freezers and the well pump. Solar array is going to start out at 3650w with a 6k split phase inverter and a couple of 5.1Kwh 48v batteries. All of that stuff will be mounted on a "hay wagon" type utility cart. Basically, a large solar generator. In my case, I have open space around my house. In the cities, no way to position something like this....panels out will be almost 25ft long.
There’s “talkers” and there is “do’ers”… welcome to the do’ers. Nice starter kit with lots of scalable options . I hope your plan is to run it full time and use it all up!
 
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TCHB

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Prior to 2000 the power plants under SCE were maintained to a very tight standard. Manpower and money were no issue. After deregulation everything changed with new owners of the plants. It was more about stretching maintenance cycles and saving cash.
 

Joe mama

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I’ll try and do a more thorough video showing start to finish. That video was tonight and nothing was over 80 degrees.

House is 1,111 sq ft on record. HVAC is on a 30amp service. House is 100% LED lighting.

I’m fully confident that the Honda can run most households. HVAC being the question mark.
Manual transfer switch/switches?
Back fed service w/ interlock? Solar?
Good video showing what the 7k is able to accomplish.
Maybe Show the peeps the installation to give them an idea what it takes to do the installation properly.
You may end up with a lot more installs lol
 

Xring01

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Prior to 2000 the power plants under SCE were maintained to a very tight standard. Manpower and money were no issue. After deregulation everything changed with new owners of the plants. It was more about stretching maintenance cycles and saving cash.
Exactly my point…
IPPs are a profit based companys, not a reliability business model. Off course the cut costs. Thats the business model.

So they use duct tape, bailing wire, and hope to maintain the power plants. Combine that with the age of that infrastructure and compare it to its design life.

What could go wrong, in the middle of Aug on a 105 degree day and all the ACs running and a few EV cars plug in to charge to get home…. Even after dark is when those plants are going to be really needed… Because all the solar goes offline..

Yet the West Coast is trusting those 25 year old assets with minimal maintenance to meet the load.

Please tell me what I have missed?
 

Racey

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What kind of confuses me about the CAISO site they show running all this Renewable capacity, but when nighttime comes the total "available" power doesn't seem to drop enough (or at all really) to pencil out. If you have all this solar, the available power in the evenings should drop off significantly? Makes it look like there is all this extra power waiting in reserves, but is it really there?
 
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LargeOrangeFont

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What kind of confuses me about the CAISO site they show running all this Renewable capacity, but when nighttime comes the total "available" power doesn't seem to drop enough to pencil out. If you have all this solar the available power in the evenings should drop off significantly? Makes it look like there is all this extra power waiting in reserves, but is it really there?

Just look at the damn bar graphs and pie charts and be satisfied.

I can’t wait to see the bar graphs and pie charts when the rolling blackouts start.
 

hallett21

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Manual transfer switch/switches?
Back fed service w/ interlock? Solar?
Good video showing what the 7k is able to accomplish.
Maybe Show the peeps the installation to give them an idea what it takes to do the installation properly.
You may end up with a lot more installs lol
Honda’s are so powerful they push against the utility 😉🤣.

Interlock on 100amp sub panel that feeds house. I’ll try and do a start to finish video later this week on a Reliance manual transfer switch system.

For customers I only install the Reliance panels. Keeps the client and linemen safe.
 

TCHB

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Exactly my point…
IPPs are a profit based companys, not a reliability business model. Off course the cut costs. Thats the business model.

So they use duct tape, bailing wire, and hope to maintain the power plants. Combine that with the age of that infrastructure and compare it to its design life.

What could go wrong, in the middle of Aug on a 105 degree day and all the ACs running and a few EV cars plug in to charge to get home…. Even after dark is when those plants are going to be really needed… Because all the solar goes offline..

Yet the West Coast is trusting those 25 year old assets with minimal maintenance to meet the load.

Please tell me what I have missed?
15 years ago most power plants were put into service from 1956 to 1966. Since that point a bunch of new combined cycles put in to modernize and update the fleet. Yes the IPPs operate on profits just like any other business except the PPA can hammer the profits if you do not perform to the agreements. PPAs are very specific about plant performance, start up times, fuel performance, scheduled maintenance hours and replacement power.
 

TCHB

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My Ebill. Never changes
22AD0394-A31D-489B-BA85-2C6531DA524F.jpeg
 

TCHB

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Flex Alerts people sign up to have their pool motors shut down or air conditioners for about a hour. Not sure on the specifics of residential flex. On the buisness side the customer gets a break on the EBills if they are part of the flex program.
 

DLow

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While generation is definitely an issue these days with all the green initiatives. There is a massive utility shortage on distribution transformers and associated distribution equipment. When the equipment starts failing due to heat related issues, wildfires or storms replacements are hard to get these days and most utilities have very low emergency stock in the West.
Who do you work for? My wife is with APS and she is having a big problem with newly installed transformers failing in 3-6 months of use. Their new equipment is junk. Going to be a huge equipment shortage… well worse than there already is.
 

monkeyswrench

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There’s “talkers” and there is “do’ers”… welcome to the do’ers. Nice starter kit with lots of scalable options . I hope your plan is to run it full time and use it all up!
Shh, don't tell anyone, but primarily it will become my "shop generating station". That will give me some leeway to mess with it and see what takes what in a somewhat "real world" environment. Kind of a large science project. If there are major outages, then I can use it as a backup for the house, but this way I hope to have some hours on it first.

It's not the "top of the line" stuff, but it's definitely not the low end either. Had to balance needs and abilities with both current availability and funding. I was kind of afraid if I waited to get started, I may not be able to aquire all the parts before they may be needed. "One in the hand..." logic.
 

DaveC

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Must be made by the same people that make the global warming charts. 🤣

"DONT YOU SEE WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE BIGOT!"
I had to take a class called government accounting. Yes they have their own method of accounting. No it doesn’t make any sense. Nor does it resemble reality.

Bottom line is if a private entity compiled their books and reports in that manner they would go to jail for fraud….
 

EmpirE231

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lets see what it looks like this Friday and Saturday... on a cool early June.

You can spin it however you want, but it is 2022! and we are in America.... the power should damn near NEVER go out. You know where the power goes out all the time? Lebanon... it did 40 years ago, and still does today. All building's have backup generators on the roof tops.... somehow they have never been able to solve a problem that is now 40+ years old.
 
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HTTP404

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I’ll try and do a more thorough video showing start to finish. That video was tonight and nothing was over 80 degrees.

House is 1,111 sq ft on record. HVAC is on a 30amp service. House is 100% LED lighting.

I’m fully confident that the Honda can run most households. HVAC being the question mark.

I'd be interested in your transfer switch setup and how your circuits are segmented to make best use of the power. I have the generator and fuel I just need to finish the wiring.

We need to run:
AC
2 fridges
1 freezer
1 microwave
misc lighting
 

hallett21

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I'd be interested in your transfer switch setup and how your circuits are segmented to make best use of the power. I have the generator and fuel I just need to finish the wiring.

We need to run:
AC
2 fridges
1 freezer
1 microwave
misc lighting
It’s pretty straight forward if all of those circuits are in one panel and are dedicated circuits.

The Reliance panels come in a few variations, but we usually use the 10 circuit 50amp panel.

It gets tricky when there are multiple panels or if the sub panel is far from an exterior wall (generator receptacle).

What size HVAC unit?
 

Mike K

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I’m expecting brown outs for sure.
I need my freezer, refrigerator and some devices to stay on for a few hours or maybe a day.
I researched portable gas generators.
I found that gas generators are old school that’s why they’re so cheap and loud.
So I bought a solar generator that is powerful enough to power those 2 appliances & it gets all charged up from my working outlet first before the electricity is shut off and can be recharged in 8 hours from the 4 included solar panels.
It cost me $2500.
So that’s my half ass plan.
( what’s cool about this solar generator stuff is some dudes get into this stuff full on … kinda a hobby thing for em … some of their pictures look like survivalist stuff🍻)
 
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