Tighten your belts people...

[BHC Vic]

The southwest carpenters just bought 400+ iPads and 30 some Apple tv’s. We are pulling for you GRADS

 

[270]

Who knows what will happen.


What really blows my mind is most libs are actually hoping for this, think about that.

 

[MSum661]

How long before Trump starts subsidizing Apple like he is the farmers because of his awesome tariff war.

I predicted the night he was elected he would cause a recession within in two years, looks like it’s right on schedule.

Apple is Stale.....but regardless of that fact, why didn't you listen to your Cultural Leader?
https://www.barrons.com/articles/di...nd-sells-apple-and-facebook-stock-51546430400

 

[GRADS]

The southwest carpenters just bought 400+ iPads and 30 some Apple tv’s. We are pulling for you GRADS

That's awesome!

 

[nowski]

Tighten those Belts People!!!

2019 RDP Weight Loss Challenge has started...

https://www.riverdavesplace.com/forums/threads/2019-rdp-weight-loss-challenge.194240/

 

[PaPaG]

Let's see what tomorrow brings...could get crazy!

In morning trading on the stock market today, Apple stock plunged 9.8%, near 142.45. That's its lowest level since June 2017.

Wall Street analysts responded with a wave of price target cuts. At least three firms downgraded Apple stock to neutral or hold from buy.

Late Wednesday, Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook posted a letter to investors alerting them to a change in guidance for its fiscal first quarter ended Dec. 29. The Cupertino, Calif.-based company now expects revenue of about $84 billion in the period. Two months earlier, it predicted sales of $89 billion to $93 billion, or $91 billion at the midpoint.

 

[PaPaG]

Not sure why so many fear mongers out there, our economy is booming, housing has slowed quickly all due to the feds increases so it has caused some stagnation but they are still selling good $$, may take 20-45 days vs 1-10 days but they are still selling...they will pull back a little more and if the feds dont screw up our economy anymore they will continue to sell...there are so many folks spending big money and buying big ticket items like cars, boats, off road toys, and doing remodels on homes and additions like I have not seen in a long time etc. at such a fast pace I do not see the economy slowing much more than possibly a small or medium pull back...again, If the Fed keeps increasing rates it is going to be a problem but if he stalls for possibly 2 meetings we will be moving forward again at a fast pace...time to watch your money and invest wisely and through all this up and down panic you can make some amazing money....patience in investing folks....

 

[pronstar]

Fear mongering causes people to sit out of investing.

Regardless of market condition, the time to invest is now. Smart money makes money in rising and falling markets.

Plenty of poor people have never made an investment mistake. Because they don’t do anything at all.

Every single wealthy person makes investment mistakes - and learns from them - on the regular.

I really wish I knew then...what I know to be true now. I’d already have the financial freedom that I’m currently working toward.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

[AZMIDLYF]

Not sure why so many fear mongers out there, our economy is booming, housing has slowed quickly all due to the feds increases so it has caused some stagnation but they are still selling good $$, may take 20-45 days vs 1-10 days but they are still selling...they will pull back a little more and if the feds dont screw up our economy anymore they will continue to sell...there are so many folks spending big money and buying big ticket items like cars, boats, off road toys, and doing remodels on homes and additions like I have not seen in a long time etc. at such a fast pace I do not see the economy slowing much more than possibly a small or medium pull back...again, If the Fed keeps increasing rates it is going to be a problem but if he stalls for possibly 2 meetings we will be moving forward again at a fast pace...time to watch your money and invest wisely and through all this up and down panic you can make some amazing money....patience in investing folks....

All those "folks" are incurring one hell of a lot of debt in my mind. This is where you want to be debt free and liquid to sweep up the sell-offs.

 

[Yellowboat]

Fear mongering causes people to sit out of investing.

Regardless of market condition, the time to invest is now. Smart money makes money in rising and falling markets.

Plenty of poor people have never made an investment mistake. Because they don’t do anything at all.

Every single wealthy person makes investment mistakes - and learns from them - on the regular.

I really wish I knew then...what I know to be true now. I’d already have the financial freedom that I’m currently working toward.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

right now I am doing just short term stuff, I want too be in and out as I really do believe my industry will see a down turn soon, lots of guys getting burned by people right now. I don't know a small contractor that did not get stiffed for less than 40k. I am on my way today too check a property that I was a sub on too see if anyone else has touched it in the last month.

 

[PaPaG]

All those "folks" are incurring one hell of a lot of debt in my mind. This is where you want to be debt free and liquid to sweep up the sell-offs.

You are 100% correct....I don't want anyone who works hard and tries to better their lives losing anything but it happens and some of the smarter folks that plan ahead and have saved up the cash to buy up those items have a field day of savings

 

[PaPaG]

312,000 new jobs added in December, blew away the estimate of 165,000 that had been estimated, job market is booming, stock market is going to be swinging up and down in larger numbers so expect it and don't panic...Good stocks are booming, crappy hype over bought stocks are tanking and money is being made if FOLKS buy big ticket items as has always occurred during booming economies the ones that bought out of their financial comfort zone will be in trouble when markets and economy changes as it always does...the idiot chair of the fed has now said we are aware of the impact of the raises and hopefully he does not tank the economy again by raising the rate too quickly.

 

[RCDave]

Q4 job numbers always look rosy (holiday season).

Lets see what Q1/Q2-2019 brings on the new job front. This will provide some deeper insight on the state of employment demand

 

[Waffles]

Very interesting read on Forbes yesterday morning

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenmcbride1/2019/01/21/the-end-of-apple/amp/

Sent from my FRD-L14 using Tapatalk

 

[DB / HAV]

Very interesting read on Forbes yesterday morning

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenmcbride1/2019/01/21/the-end-of-apple/amp/

Sent from my FRD-L14 using Tapatalk

Time to buy more Apple stock

 

[DrunkenSailor]

Steve Eisman (the big Short) is seeing the same thing I am. The commercial bond market is a mess.

https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/05/09/big-short-investor-steve-eisman-is-worried-about-the-bond-market-its-where-the-pain-will-be.html?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1#referrer=https://www.google.com&amp_tf=From %1$s&ampshare=https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/09/big-short-investor-steve-eisman-is-worried-about-the-bond-market-its-where-the-pain-will-be.html

His belief is a trade war will be the catalyst, and while I agree that a trade war would be a match and would definitely accelerate things, I think the corporate debt market is pretty much a dump full of old tires, used oil, gasoline soaked rags and a chemical factory where Nancy Pelosi is in charge of the safety inspections.

Companies have gobbled up the available cheap money as cash flows have taken a back seat to ebitda and irr. Toys R Us is a perfect example of this. Yes Amazon cut into their bottom line but they could have survived had they not maxed out their corporate debt lines in an attempt to increase investor irr and in turn falsely inflate their share prices. All one has to do is take a look at the historical levels of the corporate bond market and the unparalleled growth of the stock market and it's easy to see what's coming.

A rate hike on corporate debt rates, a step up on bond interest or a tightening on corporate lending could all be a match as well.

 

[78Southwind]

I wasn't going to post this but this interview pretty much sums it up for me (but who am I). As stated last year my hopes were that the S&P 500 would come back to the 2200 range and consolidate from there with some slower growth in the market. This would clear some of the gaps and retrace some of those important levels in the S&P 500. This would build some confidence for those that got out of the stock market to slowly return back to the stock market. However, it looks like pension funds and corporate buy backs won't let it happen. Instead we got the V-shaped recovery.

We had a black-out of corporate buy backs in the last 30 days and the market didn't go down at all (I am not yet sure what happened there). My fear is that the smart-money will come back heavy into the market and the mom and pops will follow holding the bags when everything takes a hit. I don't think the delayed trade deal will pull back the S&P 500 as far as it needs to come back unless there is a full on trade war. Which at that point the Fed will drop rates and if that doesn't work they will bring on more welfare for the wealthy, QE.

If nothing dramatic happens in the next four months it will be interesting to see what happens when the Fed stops QT in September. This may be the catalyst that brings the smart-money heavily back into the stock market followed by the mom and pops. This could create euphoria in the stock market that I haven't yet seen in 2019. I look at my everyday life for examples of this, for example when I was in Costco back in early December of 2017 and the stock people were talking about investing in Bitcoin. I figured Bitcoin must be close to a top and sure enough we saw what happened. In late August of 2018 a friend of mine who knows nothing about investing and who has never invested in anything was talking about investing in Apple and sure enough that was the near all time high for Apple. But most important don't follow anything that I write cause I am just guessing.

 

[AZMIDLYF]

That video is eye-opening.

 

[78Southwind]

Pre 2008 I saw some pretty telling things as well. I saw them mostly in the mid 2000's. An elementary teacher I knew started borrowing from their 403(b) plan to flip houses. Followed, the house flipping to Miami and lost everything, even their retirement. A friend of a friend left their minimum wage job to work for a lender and made huge money with very little to no experience or even education. Yep, they lost everything. A friends wife who he personally told me his wife was an idiot and he wouldn't hire her to answer his phone in his business became a real estate agent and made huge money. Though I know everyone doesn't have to be highly educated in their industry to make good money, I do think they need to have at least a good amount of experience and work ethic. Experience was lacking in all of these examples yet they went all in, had short-term success but lost in the end.

So have any of you in 2019 seen some examples of what you would call euphoria? I have seen a little bit of it at the small business and of course the large corporation buy back level but that doesn't concern me as much as seeing it at the everyday people level. If not maybe the next down turn in 2019 (if we get one) is more contained to small business and larger corporations that have made bad decisions.

 

[78Southwind]

That video is eye-opening.

It sure is. It pretty much sums up what I have been watching happen over the years all in one video. It is even worse though, the corporate multi-employer pensions have the same thing going on but the PBGC will not be able to save them. It's going to be interesting when more of these pensions move to private equity and private credit to chase return when liquidity is needed in the future during the baby boomers distributions in retirement.

 

[78Southwind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/vide...ng-notable-risks-to-financial-stability-video

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...g-isn-t-posing-crash-threat-fed-chairman-says

Powell acknowledges that business debt is at near record levels and recent issuance has been concentrated in the riskiest segments, blah, blah, blah but he says were all good for now.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/f...the-threat-subprime-mortgages-were-2019-05-20

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Monday evening made the case that business borrowing doesn’t represent the threat to the U.S. economy that subprime mortgages did a decade ago.

Acknowledging that there’s a category of debt that is growing faster than the income of the borrowers even as lenders loosen underwriting standards, and that much of the borrowing is financed outside the banking system, Powell argued at an Atlanta Fed banking conference that the parallels stop there.

“The financial system today appears strong enough to handle potential business-sector losses, which was manifestly not the case a decade ago with subprime mortgages,” he said.

“And there are other differences: Increases in business borrowing are not outsized for such a long expansion, in contrast to the mortgage boom; business credit is not fueled by a dramatic asset price bubble, as mortgage debt was; and CLO structures are much sounder than the structures that were in use during the mortgage credit bubble.”

Related: Fed’s Quarles says leveraged loan buildup isn’t a replay of subprime crisis

Powell pointed out the risks from business lending. “Some businesses may come under severe financial strain if the economy deteriorates. A highly leveraged business sector could amplify any economic downturn as companies are forced to lay off workers and cut back on investments,” he said.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the Massachusetts Democrat, and former Fed chief Janet Yellen are among those warning about the risks of such lending. Powell’s colleague on the Fed’s board of governors, Lael Brainard, also has sounded increasing concerns about the market segment.

Powell did acknowledge that regulators are, in his words, “working to stitch these parts together so we can collectively see that larger picture and the risks it holds.” The Securities and Exchange Commission is looking at the potential for liquidity strains at mutual funds, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is working to understand the use of derivatives to hedge risks associated with leveraged loans.

Since most of the CLOs are not held by U.S. banks, the Fed is working with the Financial Stability Board in determining the size of the global leveraged loan market and the holders of the loans, Powell said.

A couple more sources:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mayrar...veraged-lending-and-clo-markets/#59645b587309

https://institutional.voya.com/docu...eralized-loan-obligations-market-overview.pdf

 

[78Southwind]

If have the time this one is pretty good.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/vide...ng-notable-risks-to-financial-stability-video

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...g-isn-t-posing-crash-threat-fed-chairman-says

Powell acknowledges that business debt is at near record levels and recent issuance has been concentrated in the riskiest segments, blah, blah, blah but he says were all good for now.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/f...the-threat-subprime-mortgages-were-2019-05-20

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Monday evening made the case that business borrowing doesn’t represent the threat to the U.S. economy that subprime mortgages did a decade ago.

Acknowledging that there’s a category of debt that is growing faster than the income of the borrowers even as lenders loosen underwriting standards, and that much of the borrowing is financed outside the banking system, Powell argued at an Atlanta Fed banking conference that the parallels stop there.

“The financial system today appears strong enough to handle potential business-sector losses, which was manifestly not the case a decade ago with subprime mortgages,” he said.

“And there are other differences: Increases in business borrowing are not outsized for such a long expansion, in contrast to the mortgage boom; business credit is not fueled by a dramatic asset price bubble, as mortgage debt was; and CLO structures are much sounder than the structures that were in use during the mortgage credit bubble.”

Related: Fed’s Quarles says leveraged loan buildup isn’t a replay of subprime crisis

Powell pointed out the risks from business lending. “Some businesses may come under severe financial strain if the economy deteriorates. A highly leveraged business sector could amplify any economic downturn as companies are forced to lay off workers and cut back on investments,” he said.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the Massachusetts Democrat, and former Fed chief Janet Yellen are among those warning about the risks of such lending. Powell’s colleague on the Fed’s board of governors, Lael Brainard, also has sounded increasing concerns about the market segment.

Powell did acknowledge that regulators are, in his words, “working to stitch these parts together so we can collectively see that larger picture and the risks it holds.” The Securities and Exchange Commission is looking at the potential for liquidity strains at mutual funds, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is working to understand the use of derivatives to hedge risks associated with leveraged loans.

Since most of the CLOs are not held by U.S. banks, the Fed is working with the Financial Stability Board in determining the size of the global leveraged loan market and the holders of the loans, Powell said.

A couple more sources:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mayrar...veraged-lending-and-clo-markets/#59645b587309

https://institutional.voya.com/docu...eralized-loan-obligations-market-overview.pdf

I completely disagree with Powell. There is a bubble and it was caused not by a boom but a vacuum. There was no other place to put the money. Lending on mortgage was tighter than a girl on prom night and everyone with money to invest was running from the stock like ole river Dave is running from his wife right now for buying another boat.

Commercial debt was looked at as a safe Haven. Hedge funds struggling to recover poured every dollar they had in to try and generate much needed cash flow. Insurance companies, China, pension funds, retirement funds all the same players who just lost their ass on the real estate market needed a return better than treasury bonds could yield.

Clo structures are just as bad as 2006 vintage mortgage securities. The highest the rmbs default rate on subprimes was 35% on prime loans it was 10% both are 2006 vintages. I have no doubt that small business loans will hit similar levels. With big businesses reaching the 10% number when their customers start closing and the employees are out of work. Leverage was just too easy to get.

If clos are so much more safe then rmbs was why are the regulators "trying to stitch these parts together"? I think I remember hearing that sentence before in my past. The regulators are trying to determine if they got it wrong when they rated these bonds at issuance. They are pouring through bond performance, original underwriting, collateral, trying to determine how bad the damage could be.

I still think we are a ways off and steps can be taken. Just hope they don't spend too much time trying to figure out what to do.

 

[94Nautique]

We're headed for a recession. Nothing like 2008 but it's coming.

When is that going to happen??

 

[GRADS]

When is that going to happen??

Soon.

 

[78Southwind]

Soon.

How soon?

 

[AZMIDLYF]

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

How soon?

Yield curve has been flattening for awhile now, which has been a long time indicator for recession. IMO, wont happen until 3rd/4th QTR of 2021.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

 

[milkmoney]

Yield curve has been flattening for awhile now, which has been a long time indicator for recession. IMO, wont happen until 3rd/4th QTR of 2021.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Bullshit

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

 

[78Southwind]

View attachment 756551

 

[78Southwind]

Yield curve has been flattening for awhile now, which has been a long time indicator for recession. IMO, wont happen until 3rd/4th QTR of 2021.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

I hear ya. So, if the yield curve inverts in late 2021 we should have a rally through most if not all of 2022 maybe even part of 2023. Sounds Good. I can't wait for euphoria. It will be interesting to see what experiment the Fed deploys in the next recession. I wonder if they will start with the first couple of dominoes or if they will wait for all the dominoes to fall. I can't help but wonder, "what if the Fed would have bought all the failed real estate debt at the home owner level instead of waiting for the derivatives to fail."

 

[78Southwind]

Check out Tesla Bonds, pretty good example of what could happen.

 

[GRADS]

I actually have a car payment now...it should be crashing any day now.

 

[78Southwind]

I actually have a car payment now...it should be crashing any day now.

Did you pass on the Not-So-Smart car and get a Tesla 3?

 

[GRADS]

Did you pass on the Not-So-Smart car and get a Tesla 3?

No, still want that smart car!

 

[TITTIES AND BEER]

Smoke a dick grads

 

[RCDave]

No, still want that smart car!

Then get one. It's smaller than you're favorite dildo!! Lol....j/k

 

[MohavValley]

Fed has already said it'll set target rates and support those through purchasing what ever it takes to get there, they'll go to zero, but publically stated No QE. I'm sure QE will come in to play if the other strategies don't work and it gets bad enough but there still trying to dump QE from crash 1.

Sailor is right, there's a lot of unreported "shadow" corporate debt that was forced in to riskier investments due to the lack of return in most everything else, remember Obama's new GDP norm was to grow at 1%. But I will say for all the increase in debt vs. GDP growth it's diminished returns.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

• Markit Manufacturing PMI
  • 50.6 vs 52.5 forecast
  • Lowest Since September 2009
  • New Orders also lowest since 2009 and in contractionary territory
• Markit Non-Manufacturing PMI
  • 50.9 vs 53.2 forecast
  • Lowest since Feb 2016

This, coupled with the British drama, is causing the rally in treasuries today and a sell off of stocks. Looks like we may be in for some trouble ahead for econ data, after Memorial Day.

 

[OutCole'd]

These threads do not help with my anxiety.... Anyone have some Tums???

 

[78Southwind]

Kind of interesting

https://observer.com/2019/05/china-recall-giant-panda-san-diego-zoo-us-trade-war/

China Takes Back Giant Pandas From San Diego Zoo Amid Bitter Trade War
By Sissi Cao • 05/17/19 3:33pm

• 
  

Bai Yun and one of her cubs at the San Diego Zoo. Sandy Huffaker/Corbis via Getty Images

President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war with China has just caused a new damage that can’t be measured in dollar terms.

Amid a new round of tariff battles between the U.S. and China on each other’s exports, China has recalled two cute giant pandas from the San Diego Zoo in California, British tabloid Mirror first reported on Friday.

Subscribe to Observer’s Business Newsletter

The two iconic animals for the zoo, 27-year-old Bai Yun (meaning “white cloud”) and her six-year-old cub Xiao Liwu (“little present”) have been sent back to China after the country scrapped its conservation loan agreement with the U.S.

They landed at China’s Conservation and Research Center for Giant Pandas in Sichuan Province on Thursday morning, ChinaNews.com reported. “They will be under quarantine for a month to help them adapt to the conditions in China,” said Zou Wenyong, the research center’s spokesman.

Bai Yun was born in China in 1991 and moved to the San Diego Zoo in 1996 under the conservation loan agreement between the U.S. and China. During her 22 years at the Californian zoo, Bai Yun gave birth to six cubs, with Xiao Liwu being her youngest. All five of Xiao Liwu’s siblings returned to China between 2007 and 2011.


Giant pandas, a highly endangered species only found in central China, have been a crucial diplomatic symbol for the Middle Kingdom. Since the 1940s, China has gifted or loaned dozens of giant pandas to 14 countries.

Three U.S. zoos—the National Zoo in Washington, D.C.; Zoo Atlanta in Atlanta, Georgia; and the Memphis Zoo in Memphis, Tennessee—still house giant pandas.

The San Diego Zoo has expressed its intention to renew the conservation loan agreement with China. But for now, the zoo’s live streaming “panda cam” shows nothing but the emptiness of the two adorable pandas’ former home.

 

[78Southwind]

I wonder how true this one is...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/29/cor...the-bull-market-but-now-they-are-selling.html

 

[zhandfull]

I wonder how true this one is...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/29/cor...the-bull-market-but-now-they-are-selling.html

Reads like stocks are a house of cards and the game is about to end.

 

[AZMIDLYF]

 

[CoolCruzin]

Stocks are up and growing
Homes are selling
People speeding money
I see all good

But calif sucks ass - hate this state
Tax and more tax

 

[78Southwind]

This will be interesting
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/07/deu...-business-and-scale-back-investment-bank.html

• Deutsche Bank announced Sunday that it will pull out of its global equities sales and trading business as part of a sweeping restructuring plan to improve profitability.
• The bank will also slash 18,000 jobs for a global headcount of around 74,000 employees by 2022. The bank aims to reduce costs by 6 billion euros.
• Deutsche expects its restructuring plan to cost 7.4 billion euros by the end of 2022.
• The German bank also expects to report a net loss of 2.8 billion euros in the second quarter of 2019. It will release its second quarter results on July 25.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

This will be interesting
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/07/deu...-business-and-scale-back-investment-bank.html

• Deutsche Bank announced Sunday that it will pull out of its global equities sales and trading business as part of a sweeping restructuring plan to improve profitability.
• The bank will also slash 18,000 jobs for a global headcount of around 74,000 employees by 2022. The bank aims to reduce costs by 6 billion euros.
• Deutsche expects its restructuring plan to cost 7.4 billion euros by the end of 2022.
• The German bank also expects to report a net loss of 2.8 billion euros in the second quarter of 2019. It will release its second quarter results on July 25.

they got bit on two big commercial deals. I know i keep saying the same thing but follow the money. There is too much money invested in commercial debt. The way the banks are lending is to hedge funds and the funds are investing the money and then issuing the bonds back to the market.

This is 2.8bn by deutsche on two deals. Drop in the bucket. Its only gonna get worse.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deutsche-bank-db-incurrs-losses-121212764.html

 

[78Southwind]

Entire discussion, if you have time it's pretty good.

 

[Activated]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/11/investing/dow-stock-market-today/index.html

 

[DrunkenSailor]

Entire discussion, if you have time it's pretty good.

This is exactly what I'm talking about. Her breakdown is perfect.