Tighten your belts people...

[530RL]

Investopedia to be exact. So what’s you’re point? If you’re comparing a normal recession cycle to the economic meltdown of 2008, then you need to read up a little.

Here is another level One CFA principle from Investopedia.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/smoot-hawley-tariff-act.asp

 

[DrunkenSailor]

Article from MSN this morning.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...-recession-in-2020/ar-BBPUjYe?ocid=spartandhp

Cliffnote version 10 year and 2 year rates are converging and businesses are over levered. Corporate debt default will be the problem this time around and yes it is coming. Q4 earning reports will make or break 2019. So go out and spend this holiday season if you want to prolong the good times until 2020.

 

[GRADS]

I told you it was coming.

 

[78Southwind]

I told you it was coming.

So are you out of Apple?

 

[GRADS]

So are you out of Apple?

No and I'm fucking pissed. We were damn near in tears over the money we've lost in the last month. Every day I think maybe I should pull it.....and then it goes down again.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

No and I'm fucking pissed. We were damn near in tears over the money we've lost in the last month. Every day I think maybe I should pull it.....and then it goes down again.

Then sell it.

Do you understand what diversification means?

When you work at a company and have a lot of their stock.. you live by the sword and die by it.

 

[steak&lobster]

Then sell it.

Do you understand what diversification means?

When you work at a company and have a lot of their stock.. you live by the sword and die by it.

in one ear and out the other

 

[78Southwind]

Then sell it.

Do you understand what diversification means?

When you work at a company and have a lot of their stock.. you live by the sword and die by it.

This is the truth. I use to work for a subsidiary of AIG. AIG owned 250 companies, was well diversified and was a part of the Dow. AIG owned a Furniture Company, Hotels, commercial Aircraft Leasing facilities, Shopping Centers, Golf Courses and even a Ski Resort. I thought owning their stock was about as close as possible to owning a diversified portfolio of stocks since there were so many companies that were unrelated to each other. I was in the ESPP and bought the stock at a 15% discount of the lowest price during that quarter. What could go wrong. Now thank god, I was well diversified in my retirement plan I only had 1% of AIG stock in it. But I still took a good size hit, plus taking a hit in income for that year. I thought about selling it for years and it just didn't ever seem like it was a good time to sell. Not saying Apple is anything like AIG but you are compounding the risk nonetheless.

 

[GRADS]

I agree with diversification but if Apple fails this country will have bigger problems.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I agree with diversification but Apple fails this country will bigger problems.

Then don’t bitch when the stock drops 10%, 20%, 30%.

You can’t have it both ways. Apple is not gonna fail, but a 50% stock price drop is not Apple failing. It is unlikely the stock will hold the same upward trajectory forever.

 

[78Southwind]

 

[78Southwind]

I thought Grads might be interested in a quote from Maurice "Hank" Greenberg the former CEO of AIG.

"I've lost my entire net worth, literally my entire net worth," Greenberg said. "I worked 40 years building the greatest insurance company in history, one that everyone in the world envied – who was in this industry."

Greenberg, who privately or through the companies he runs still owns a private jet, an office on Park Avenue and homes in New York City and Brewster, N.Y., likely lost 95 percent of his total assets, or somewhere in the neighborhood of $3 billion, analysts say.

 

[Willie B]

I agree with diversification but if Apple fails this country will have bigger problems.

...Have a musician friend who was over about eight days ago said he was $600K down with his Apple stock...Came by 2 days ago and he had recouped $200K of that 600 he was down...he never sells when it is up... he just buys more when it is down...bought more at $200...$190 and $180...Said he tried the sell high buy low routine...at some point...but due to taxes ended up with less shares...after having to pay the ...I guess it’s capital gains tax???...
...This guy is very well read and up on finance...
...Although real estate is starting a downward trend...says bunk home loans will not be the cause of our next recession...for want of a better term... bunk commercial loans will be be the culprit...

 

[78Southwind]

Damn looks like Trump may place a 10% tariff on iPhones and Laptops. Apple down 2% in after market trading.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...s-10-tariffs-may-be-placed-on-iphones-laptops

 

[530RL]

Damn looks like Trump may place a 10% tariff on iPhones and Laptops. Apple down 2% in after market trading.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...s-10-tariffs-may-be-placed-on-iphones-laptops

The G20 will be important to the markets and growth in the economy.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trump-signals-u-likely-ahead-215953184.html

 

[ChumpChange]

Damn looks like Trump may place a 10% tariff on iPhones and Laptops. Apple down 2% in after market trading.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...s-10-tariffs-may-be-placed-on-iphones-laptops

I think Trump is specifically going after @GRADS at this point because of all the hate he spews.

 

[78Southwind]

I think Trump is specifically going after @GRADS at this point because of all the hate he spews.

Thanks for typing what I was thinking.

 

[highvoltagehands]

No and I'm fucking pissed. We were damn near in tears over the money we've lost in the last month. Every day I think maybe I should pull it.....and then it goes down again.

Sit on it Greg. Apple may drop or bounce around little bit but they'll rebound and so will you. Apple is as solid as they come. they've finished construction and done spending money on the new $5+ Billion corporate hdqtrers and R&D facilities so with all employees now moved to new campus, Apple is back to business and innovation as usual.
And with the tax break, the billions of dollars they had parked offshore is coming back into US for Apple to use and should offset any economy issues.

 

[GRADS]

Anyone see the 15,000 layoffs at GM....it's here.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Anyone see the 15,000 layoffs at GM....it's here.

No it’s not... we just had 2 of the biggest shopping days in the history of the world in the last week, and both had growth in double digit percent over last year.

Not saying we are not headed for a recession, but we have not entered it.

 

[Bigbore500r]

Yup I’ve seen t first hand. That’s why I don’t ever get comfortable just because it’s booming. They are just picking up on the towers we’re they left off in Vegas 10 years ago. Can happen over night with one at okenof the pen

The okenof of the pen always gets ya

 

[Bigbore500r]

Anyone see the 15,000 layoffs at GM....it's here.

Ford already announced they are pretty much abandoning the passenger car market in the US. GM is doing the same, but their structure is that several factories pretty much are limited to those vehicles hence they are closing. It isn't due to an economic turndown, vehicle sales are booming - just truck / suv sales, not car sales. Keeping product lines around that aren't profitable was what got GM into bankruptcy in the first place. They're doing what they should be - responding to the market in a timely manner and stopping the bleeding. Ford did so as well, but different means.

 

[BHC Vic]

The okenof of the pen always gets ya

Stroke of the pen and we signed Fullmer and hopefully get the tilt up market back. Dick head Jerry brown has been signing shit on his was out and hopefully we get the residential market back.


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[Taboma]

Stroke of the pen and we signed Fullmer and hopefully get the tilt up market back. Dick head Jerry brown has been signing shit on his was out and hopefully we get the residential market back.


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Curious since Fullmer's work is all subbed out, what their incentive is/was since securing projects and having top-notch subs was never their problem ?
Done work with Fullmer for 20 years (Prior to retiring), they've always used a mix of union and non, depending on the project and bid prices.
In other words, why fix something that surely wasn't broken ?
Does their signing force them to use only union subs ?

 

[JBS]

Damn looks like Trump may place a 10% tariff on iPhones and Laptops. Apple down 2% in after market trading.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...s-10-tariffs-may-be-placed-on-iphones-laptops

This quote from the article is quite telling. Whoever does not think these Tariffs are mostly just a tax increase is not paying attention.

“Maybe. Maybe. Depends on what the rate is,” the president said, referring to mobile phones and laptops. “I mean, I can make it 10 percent, and people could stand that very easily.”

Yes the economy has been slowing for a while. Those that are pointing to consumer sending do not understand what is going on.

 

[BHC Vic]

Curious since Fullmer's work is all subbed out, what their incentive is/was since securing projects and having top-notch subs was never their problem ?
Done work with Fullmer for 20 years (Prior to retiring), they've always used a mix of union and non, depending on the project and bid prices.
In other words, why fix something that surely wasn't broken ?
Does their signing force them to use only union subs ?

Yes... it was a big win for us. Been chasing them over 20 years. Owner said they’ll sign over his dead body. Was a pretty big win


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[BHC Vic]

Curious since Fullmer's work is all subbed out, what their incentive is/was since securing projects and having top-notch subs was never their problem ?
Done work with Fullmer for 20 years (Prior to retiring), they've always used a mix of union and non, depending on the project and bid prices.
In other words, why fix something that surely wasn't broken ?
Does their signing force them to use only union subs ?

We aren’t doing things the way we used to. We get politicians on our side which basically pass agreements saying that work in that city needs to be done union. We’ve been taking the ie by storm. Basically no choice.


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[Done-it-again]

Ford already announced they are pretty much abandoning the passenger car market in the US. GM is doing the same, but their structure is that several factories pretty much are limited to those vehicles hence they are closing. It isn't due to an economic turndown, vehicle sales are booming - just truck / suv sales, not car sales. Keeping product lines around that aren't profitable was what got GM into bankruptcy in the first place. They're doing what they should be - responding to the market in a timely manner and stopping the bleeding. Ford did so as well, but different means.

Agree mostly with what you say. But comparing last year auto sales to this years, Sales are slightly down. Doesn’t mean rescission, what it does mean is that people are waiting to see what happens with taxes before dropping big money on a new car/truck. At that point I think we will see a shift bad or good at that time. I don’t know what will happen, But I have my thought and people are going to be surprised not in a good way.

 

[D19]

Anyone see the 15,000 layoffs at GM....it's here.

Yes I read about that yesterday. I think we area ready in the beginning of a recession.

In So Cal RE, pending sales are down 40%+ from last year and prices are falling.

Many people are saying a small correction is what's happening... I'm calling BS. The president of national Association Of Realtors said prices will go up 3% in 2019. I think he pulled that number out of his butt and is ignoring all the present and recent data.

Refi applications just dropped to an 18 year low. What's that tell us?

It's time to pay for 10 years of cheap borrowing.

 

[Gelcoater]

We aren’t doing things the way we used to. We get politicians on our side which basically pass agreements saying that work in that city needs to be done union. We’ve been taking the ie by storm. Basically no choice.


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Uhhh, lol.
Aren’t doing things the way you used to?

Greasing politicians is how unions have ALWAYS operated, Vic.

 

[BHC Vic]

Uhhh, lol.
Aren’t doing things the way you used to?

Greasing politicians is how unions have ALWAYS operated, Vic.

I meant as far as picket lines and holding up signs in front of buildings. You don’t see that anymore


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[LargeOrangeFont]

I meant as far as picket lines and holding up signs in front of buildings. You don’t see that anymore


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They realized that the people sitting on the curb or standing in the shade smoking a cigarette with the “labor dispute” sign on the ground behind them was bad optics.

 

[Gelcoater]

I meant as far as picket lines and holding up signs in front of buildings. You don’t see that anymore


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Of course not. “Basically by no choice” in your words you’ve taken over the IE, so, you’ve greased all the politicians to the point the wheel no longer squeaks. For now.

 

[TCHB]

1. The politicians need votes.
They are very good at behind the scenes gathering support of union workers to help them win the elections. You help me and I will help you. Been on going for a lot of years.

 

[Reddy Too]

1. The politicians need votes.
They are very good at behind the scenes gathering support of union workers to help them win the elections. You help me and I will help you. Been on going for a lot of years.

Symbiosis at its worst.

 

[Taboma]

We aren’t doing things the way we used to. We get politicians on our side which basically pass agreements saying that work in that city needs to be done union. We’ve been taking the ie by storm. Basically no choice.


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Just so I understand. You're not just referring to city or county funded projects ?
You're saying if a private company is having a large distribution center constructed (Common for the IE), the city is offering incentives for using a union general contractor ? Or are they mandating it ? Subs as well ? And who is "WE", the carpenters or all trades ?

 

[BHC Vic]

Just so I understand. You're not just referring to city or county funded projects ?
You're saying if a private company is having a large distribution center constructed (Common for the IE), the city is offering incentives for using a union general contractor ? Or are they mandating it ? Subs as well ? And who is "WE", the carpenters or all trades ?

I’m referring to all projects in the county. That’s why we just had the huge change with all the locals. There’s no more 1506, 2361, 944 etc. there’s 714, 909, 951, 213 etc. based on where you live is where you ended up. Started the whole we live here we work here movement. A union carpenter shouldn’t have to drive 2 hours to make a buck a minute. We should be able to do it in our backyard. And we is carpenters


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[TCHB]

Symbiosis at its worst.

The back door deals have been going on since the Roman Days.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

The back door deals have been going on since the Roman Days.

In the bath houses...literally.

 

[78Southwind]

Anyone see the 15,000 layoffs at GM....it's here.

Yep, just let me know when you sell your Apple stock so I can pick some up.

 

[Taboma]

I’m referring to all projects in the county. That’s why we just had the huge change with all the locals. There’s no more 1506, 2361, 944 etc. there’s 714, 909, 951, 213 etc. based on where you live is where you ended up. Started the whole we live here we work here movement. A union carpenter shouldn’t have to drive 2 hours to make a buck a minute. We should be able to do it in our backyard. And we is carpenters


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Since retiring, I've got a vested interest in the IBEW keeping the guys busy and the (my) pensions funded

I've learned how to forgive

 

[Yellowboat]

Anyone see the 15,000 layoffs at GM....it's here.

Maybe the union should pay thier unemployment

 

[ChumpChange]

Anyone see the 15,000 layoffs at GM....it's here.

Layoffs? I thought it was the announcement of future plant closures. I know a couple of those plants also have contracts coming up with the UAW around the time of the announced closures. Negotiating tactic? Maybe. I guess it depends on where gas prices go in the next year.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

I wonder if Ford is going to regret focusing on the truck market? Seems like it's shortsighted. Anybody remember the 1970's? A gas crisis happens and suddenly you are dealing with lots of expensive iron you can't give away because no one can afford to put fuel in them...

I could see Ford reviving an old marquee like Mercury and start building cheaper versions of Lincolns if that happened though.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I wonder if Ford is going to regret focusing on the truck market? Seems like it's shortsighted. Anybody remember the 1970's? A gas crisis happens and suddenly you are dealing with lots of expensive iron you can't give away because no one can afford to put fuel in them...

I could see Ford reviving an old marquee like Mercury and start building cheaper versions of Lincolns if that happened though.

No one wants sedans. If they want a small sedan it is hard to compete with Corolla, Civic, Camry and Accord. People want crossovers, and there are more margins in crossovers. Until people decide they want to get into lower and lighter cars that truly get the best fuel mileage, Ford will have made a good decision.

 

[pronstar]

No one wants sedans. If they want a small sedan it is hard to compete with Corolla, Civic, Camry and Accord. People want crossovers, and there are more margins in crossovers. Until people decide they want to get into lower and lighter cars that truly get the best fuel mileage, Ford will have made a good decision.

And even then, Camry and Accord sales are in the crapper.

Toyota can’t get their model mix switched to crossovers and suvs fast enough.


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[GRADS]

Dow down almost another 800 today after being down 800 on Tuesday...it's coming.

 

[RodnJen]

Dow down almost another 800 today after being down 800 on Tuesday...it's coming.

What’s coming, a recession or a correction?

 

[GRADS]

What’s coming, a recession or a correction?

yes

 

[DrunkenSailor]

Its all about perspective.

Here's the 5 day.

Ouch doesnt look good.

Here's the 1 month.

Ok really not that bad.

6 month

Again just moving up and down as expected.

YTD

Still above the median.

Last 5 years

Holy shit that's a ton of growth.

Last 50 years

Ok now I am starting to understand why some people are worried. The corrections of 1987's black monday, the tech bubble of 2000, and the 2008 recession appear to be small dips compared to what the next one could be. Notice the timing of each? I think concern is warranted.