Tighten your belts people...

[cofooter]

The stock market is going to keep going up, it will rally a few times on the way. But within the next ten days, it will be way up.

Fixed it for you.

 

[GRADS]

Bumping to stoke the fears...daddy needs a new house in Tahoe.

 

[78Southwind]

Bumping to stoke the fears...daddy needs a new house in Tahoe.

Did you start tracking the ones you're interested in, asking for a friend? Just saying, but Tahoe would probably be a great place for a vacation rental.

 

[FishSniper]

The stock market is going to keep going down, it will rally a few times on the way. But within the next ten days, it will be way down.

Judging by the futures and ten year treasury right now looks like tommorow could be very ugly.

 

[78Southwind]

Damn, S & P 500 futures are already down over 4%...

 

[MSum661]

10 yr. @ 0.5 (Daaaamn!!)
Oil down 20% since the close on Friday.
Dow down 1,070 rebounding back from down 1,400 from Fridays close.
And cash is King!

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Bumping to stoke the fears...daddy needs a new house in Tahoe.

Nostradumbass back in the house!

 

[MSum661]

Damn, S & P 500 futures are already down over 4%...

The S&P futures actually dropped down 5% which tripped the limit down rule.
Once the markets open NYSE circuit breakers will work like this...Trading halts for 15 minutes if the S&P 500 falls 7% to 2,764 at any time before 3:25 p.m. ET. Another 15-minute pause is triggered if losses reaches 13% 2,586. If the decline hits 20% 2,377.9, markets will close for the day.

 

[J.P.]

Going down more, tighten your belt more.

 

[farmo83]

When others are greedy, be fearful, when others are fearful, be greedy
-Warren Buffett

 

[MSum661]

DOW, NASD and S&P futures have tripped the limit down rule.
Could likely will see a 15-min trading halt within minutes of the market opening.

 

[MSum661]

Dow Futures just Blew through 23K and deep into 22K and I would bet tomorrow we see a 21k Handle.
Buying opp's will be enormous in the coming weeks and months if sitting ready.

 

[MSum661]

NASDAQ already stopped out at "Limit Down"

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[DrunkenSailor]

Trump is giving money to sba to ensure liquidity to all the over leveraged businesses. 1 in 6 publicly traded companies cannot afford their debt service before Corona virus. If they cannot refinance they will be forced into bankruptcy. Shits gonna get real fast unless this calms down quickly.

 

[MSum661]

Trump is giving money to sba to ensure liquidity to all the over leveraged businesses. 1 in 6 publicly traded companies cannot afford their debt service before Corona virus. If they cannot refinance they will be forced into bankruptcy. Shits gonna get real fast unless this calms down quickly.

The shorts would have attacked the weak balance sheets of co.s anyway. Was Just a matter of time given the circumstances.
So its a good thing TRUMP did this to help mitigate the looming carnage. He saw it coming.
jmo.

 

[GRADS]

You guys might want to break out a nail and hammer to pound another hole in the belt.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

You guys might want to break out a nail and hammer to pound another hole in the belt.

Nope.. you want a new boat, it’s almost time to double down.

 

[GRADS]

Nope.. you want a new boat, it’s almost time to double down.

Keyword almost.

 

[78Southwind]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/overall-fed-temporary-liquidity-rises-to-283-1-billion-11584021405

In the wake of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s shock announcement that it would provide up to $1.5 trillion in new temporary liquidity, the outstanding amount of money lent to major banks and financial firms surged to its highest level on Thursday since operations restarted in September.

 

[Orange Juice]

If you've been on this plant for over 1/2 a century, you've been through a few recessions. The best part about recessions are the fire sales that follow.

First time I’ve started to look at the boat ads in a while. With fuel prices going down, a motor home might be good too.

 

[AZMIDLYF]

As factories around the world shutter, entire populations get quarantined, and consumers lock their wallets tighter than their front doors, thousands of companies are facing deep earnings cuts.

Which brings up a huge problem. Last year, outstanding debt held by non-finance corporations hit a record $13.5 trillion, according to an OECD report. A growing portion of that is held in riskier bonds, and experts worry an economic crisis spurred by coronavirus could send corporations on cost-cutting sprees or to default.

How we got here
Corporations issue bonds to raise money. And high-quality corporate bonds are considered relatively safe investments.

• What counts as high-quality? Rating agencies like S&P, Fitch, and Moody’s rank bonds by a company’s creditworthiness, from investment-grade to junk.

In the years after the financial crisis, corporations loaded up on debt. Today, an estimated one-in-six U.S. companies don’t have the cash flow to cover interest payments, a Morgan Stanley analyst told the FT.

And there’s more junk than ever: In the last decade, about one-fifth of new bonds issued were below investment-grade.

When junk hits the fan
Because of the coronavirus, investors are shedding riskier assets like a Great Pyrenees heading into spring. This week’s oil price war accelerated the sell-off in the energy industry, which accounts for the largest share of the U.S. junk bond market.

• Energy companies have about $88 billion in bonds due this year, and analysts expect defaults to surpass 2016 levels.

Rating agencies are watching particularly vulnerable industries like auto, airlines, and hospitality. S&P put Nashville's Ryman Hospitality Properties on a credit rating watch after massive cancellations threatened to whack revenue by $40 million.

Big picture: Last year, the IMF warned a crisis half as severe as the 2008 recession could put 40% of corporate debt at risk. If the pandemic makes it harder for companies to make interest payments, they might need to lean on cost-cutting measures like layoffs or pulling investments.

 

[nameisbond]

The Royal Bank Of Canada, CIBC (RBC is Canada's biggest bank, CIBC is also large) and Bank Of America, all announced today they believe Canada will enter a recession this year.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

As factories around the world shutter, entire populations get quarantined, and consumers lock their wallets tighter than their front doors, thousands of companies are facing deep earnings cuts.

Which brings up a huge problem. Last year, outstanding debt held by non-finance corporations hit a record $13.5 trillion, according to an OECD report. A growing portion of that is held in riskier bonds, and experts worry an economic crisis spurred by coronavirus could send corporations on cost-cutting sprees or to default.

How we got here
Corporations issue bonds to raise money. And high-quality corporate bonds are considered relatively safe investments.

• What counts as high-quality? Rating agencies like S&P, Fitch, and Moody’s rank bonds by a company’s creditworthiness, from investment-grade to junk.

In the years after the financial crisis, corporations loaded up on debt. Today, an estimated one-in-six U.S. companies don’t have the cash flow to cover interest payments, a Morgan Stanley analyst told the FT.

And there’s more junk than ever: In the last decade, about one-fifth of new bonds issued were below investment-grade.

When junk hits the fan
Because of the coronavirus, investors are shedding riskier assets like a Great Pyrenees heading into spring. This week’s oil price war accelerated the sell-off in the energy industry, which accounts for the largest share of the U.S. junk bond market.

• Energy companies have about $88 billion in bonds due this year, and analysts expect defaults to surpass 2016 levels.

Rating agencies are watching particularly vulnerable industries like auto, airlines, and hospitality. S&P put Nashville's Ryman Hospitality Properties on a credit rating watch after massive cancellations threatened to whack revenue by $40 million.

Big picture: Last year, the IMF warned a crisis half as severe as the 2008 recession could put 40% of corporate debt at risk. If the pandemic makes it harder for companies to make interest payments, they might need to lean on cost-cutting measures like layoffs or pulling investments.

Yup this is what I have been saying for a year. Corporate debt market needed a match to explode. They just got carpet bombed with napalm... Fed released a trillion yesterday to fund liquidity Trump released 200bn two days ago to the sba. As long as these companies can refi the debt they can hold the line.

 

[pronstar]

Honda has just re-opened a factory in China.
Other carmakers are expected to follow.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

[DrunkenSailor]

Honda has just re-opened a factory in China.
Other carmakers are expected to follow.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

That's good news

 

[78Southwind]

I wasn't going to post this but this interview pretty much sums it up for me (but who am I). As stated last year my hopes were that the S&P 500 would come back to the 2200 range and consolidate from there with some slower growth in the market. This would clear some of the gaps and retrace some of those important levels in the S&P 500. This would build some confidence for those that got out of the stock market to slowly return back to the stock market. However, it looks like pension funds and corporate buy backs won't let it happen. Instead we got the V-shaped recovery.

We had a black-out of corporate buy backs in the last 30 days and the market didn't go down at all (I am not yet sure what happened there). My fear is that the smart-money will come back heavy into the market and the mom and pops will follow holding the bags when everything takes a hit. I don't think the delayed trade deal will pull back the S&P 500 as far as it needs to come back unless there is a full on trade war. Which at that point the Fed will drop rates and if that doesn't work they will bring on more welfare for the wealthy, QE.

If nothing dramatic happens in the next four months it will be interesting to see what happens when the Fed stops QT in September. This may be the catalyst that brings the smart-money heavily back into the stock market followed by the mom and pops. This could create euphoria in the stock market that I haven't yet seen in 2019. I look at my everyday life for examples of this, for example when I was in Costco back in early December of 2017 and the stock people were talking about investing in Bitcoin. I figured Bitcoin must be close to a top and sure enough we saw what happened. In late August of 2018 a friend of mine who knows nothing about investing and who has never invested in anything was talking about investing in Apple and sure enough that was the near all time high for Apple. But most important don't follow anything that I write cause I am just guessing.

Well we are here...

Looks like the Fed is ready to backstop corporate bonds and stocks at least at the primary dealer level. I tried to find out where the numbers were last week but I can't find them. They haven't updated the Fed Balance Sheet either.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200317b.htm

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

 

[78Southwind]

Nice little bounce off the S & P 500, 2200 range, it only cost us 6 Trillion... I hope there isn't another shoe that falls off...

I wonder if we will get our crackers (check) before they serve the alphabet soup...? (ESF), (PMCCF), (SMCCF), (TALF). (ABS), (MMLF), (VRDNs), (CPFF) and (PDCF)

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200323b.htm

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200317b.htm

 

[nameisbond]

Canada is in worse shape, we have Trudeau after all. Jobless claims hit 1million last week. Considering our population is 30 million people, 1 million jobless claims in one week is great depression numbers.

Gold will now do great with the fed printing like crazy and the US going to helicopter money, i.e. checks for Americans. For the US and the world economies its now inflate or die. They can over inflate and again good for gold. we could see hyperinflation.

 

[AZMIDLYF]

 

[DrunkenSailor]

Dont fall for the early falling crap... Bide your time. The real deals are coming...

 

[4Waters]

How long before Trump starts subsidizing Apple like he is the farmers because of his awesome tariff war.

I predicted the night he was elected he would cause a recession within in two years, looks like it’s right on schedule.

This didn't age well

 

[Drew]

If it happens I hope home prices drop to what they were 8 or so years ago so I can buy my first house and not worry about getting bent over.

Prices will drop but interest rates will be ridiculous

 

[DILLIGAF]

This didn't age well

Chicken with his stupid ass head cut off comes to mind. Lol

 

[attitude]

Prices will drop but interest rates will be ridiculous

That’s fine, I’ll take low prices and high interest rates. Rates will go back down eventually.