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Tesla Continues to collapse.

Uncle Dave

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Is the collapse coming ?

Elon just put his money where his mouth is and bought 10M in Tesla stock.

When the power goes out here the gas station goes down with it.



UD
 

rrrr

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Considering Tesla blew through $785 million in cash in the first quarter, I'm not too impressed with Musk emptying his change purse to buy a little stock.

Tesla is spending $8.2 million a day, his $10 million is barely enough to pay for tomorrow.
 

Uncle Dave

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Considering Tesla blew through $785 million in cash in the first quarter, I'm not too impressed with Musk emptying his change purse to buy a little stock.

Tesla is spending $8.2 million a day, his $10 million is barely enough to pay for tomorrow.

but its his 10M not teslas

when do you predict collapse?



UD
 

LargeOrangeFont

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but its his 10M not teslas

when do you predict collapse?



UD

There will be probably be a buyout, not a collapse. The stock value will climb, Musk will get his money back and a healthy return on his investment.
 

rrrr

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They are going to pass $1 billion in cash burn this quarter, and at the end of the 1st quarter they had $2.7 billion in cash on hand. In the investor conference call two weeks ago, Musk said they wouldn't require a cash infusion in 2018 and expect to be cash flow positive by the end of the year. That sounds like nonsense to me.

There's no way they survive without more money. But where will it come from? They have collateralized literally everything of value, and on top of all that they took on another $1.2 billion in debt by buying Solar City.

Who's going to buy Tesla? The company isn't worth anything close to its $50 billion plus market capitalization. They have over $10 billion in debt.

I don't know when the whole thing is going to collapse, but it looks more like a sure thing every day.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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They are going to pass $1 billion in cash burn this quarter, and at the end of the 1st quarter they had $2.7 billion in cash on hand. In the investor conference call two weeks ago, Musk said they wouldn't require a cash infusion in 2018 and expect to be cash flow positive by the end of the year. That sounds like nonsense to me.

There's no way they survive without more money. But where will it come from? They have collateralized literally everything of value, and on top of all that they took on another $1.2 billion in debt by buying Solar City.

Who's going to buy Tesla? The company isn't worth anything close to its $50 billion plus market capitalization. They have over $10 billion in debt.

I don't know when the whole thing is going to collapse, but it looks more like a sure thing every day.

While I don’t disagree, the issue is that the brand has value. Someone will buy them as they swirl the bowl. I would imaging everyone is waiting for reality to set in first.
 

Uncle Dave

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People have been predicting collapse before Elon even got started.
Mostly analysts that got burned early seem to be riding and promoting that wave.

Tesla has something that only low volume producers have - a gigantic backlog of pre sold cars.
Unlike Ford Gm Chrysler who build randomly in hopes of selling what they built, Tesla has years of orders stacked up which is both good and bad.

Anybody see Elons new girlfriend ?

Looks like hes dating the hamburgler.


UD
 

LargeOrangeFont

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People have been predicting collapse before Elon even got started.
Mostly analysts that got burned early seem to be riding and promoting that wave.

Tesla has something that only low volume producers have - a gigantic backlog of pre sold cars.
Unlike Ford Gm Chrysler who build randomly in hopes of selling what they built, Tesla has years of orders stacked up which is both good and bad.

Anybody see Elons new girlfriend ?

Looks like hes dating the hamburgler.


UD


But it takes money to build the cars on order. Money they already spent and don’t have. The “Pending Orders” will be used to inflate and justify the sale price of the company when sold.
 

Uncle Dave

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But it takes money to build the cars on order. Money they already spent and don’t have. The “Pending Orders” will be used to inflate and justify the sale price of the company when sold.

They still have cash and revenue is growing.
Model 3 alone can cover and more if they get it rolling - they are up to what 2700 a week now?

Wall street is his go to place for money and they seem to believe it has a brighter future than the regular guys.

When do you predict it will be sold?


UD
 

LargeOrangeFont

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They still have cash and revenue is growing.
Model 3 alone can cover and more if they get it rolling - they are up to what 2700 a week now?

Wall street is his go to place for money and they seem to believe it has a brighter future than the regular guys.

When do you predict it will be sold?


UD


If he keeps finding people to give him money, never. Revenue is great but there is no profit. I don’t see how you run a car company with no profit, unless it is part of some larger conglomerate that is making money as a whole. Tesla is not Amazon :)

As for when.. I would say within a year, but that could change any day if they get an influx of money.
 

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How ford doesnt find a way to merge these companies is beyond me. Ford makes shit cars. Tesla makes bad ass cars. Ford has tons of capacity tesla has none. Ford just did away with their car fleet focusing on a couple cars. This is an easy buy imo. Ford gets all that tesla technology uses it to make better trucks! I dont see why it doesnt happen


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wsuwrhr

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nice... create a dip and buy. he is a genius. :)

In todays Tesla news...


Tesla loses $2 BILLION in value after Elon Musk calls an analyst a 'boring bonehead' and says the 'questions are so dry they are killing' him during a bizarre earnings call

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...alysts-For-Tesla-2-billion.html#ixzz5ESR36AP1

Is the collapse coming ?

Elon just put his money where his mouth is and bought 10M in Tesla stock.

When the power goes out here the gas station goes down with it.



UD
 

sirbob

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Here is a headline from March 21, 2018.

Tesla shareholders just approved a $2.6 billion stock option plan for Elon Musk
http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-elon-musk-net-worth-2017-10


I hardly think a guy worth 20 BILLION now and who was just granted another $2.6 BILLION in stock is really investing in tesla stock by buying $10 million.

It is nothing more than a PR stunt to try to give confidence to the millions of uninformed people who he needs to keep buying his stock...

Seriously we are talking about .5% of his net worth that he just used to buy that stock. NOTHING but a PR move.



nice... create a dip and buy. he is a genius. :)
 

highvoltagehands

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In a year from now we'll be talking about Tesla's collapse thru the roof and all the money raining in thru it. The product demand is still 1000x (1,000,000x inc. China)beyond product production with minimal in class competition. Elon has silenced the neigh sayers before, he'll do it again. Tesla will be fine.
 

Raffit78

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You guys are talking about "Tesla" while his fan base is out celebrating his "Tunnel".
 

Racey

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In a year from now we'll be talking about Tesla's collapse thru the roof and all the money raining in thru it. The product demand is still 1000x (1,000,000x inc. China)beyond product production with minimal in class competition. Elon has silenced the neigh sayers before, he'll do it again. Tesla will be fine.

I tend to agree, people are trying to look at Tesla through the lens of an auto mfg, they are a technology company, a very advanced one at that, they just happen to also mfg vehicles.
 

sirbob

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I'm not saying that the company will be out of business but I do believe that it will look different than it does today - he either needs to get out of the way of the car people he can hire or look to sell / merge with one of the big auto giants. They just can't keep doing what he has been doing... spending a shit ton of money and missing every deadline he has put out. Missing those deadlines is whats causing tesla to be in the situation that they are in from a cash point of view. If they hit the milestones that they announce they would be doing ok financially.

In a year from now we'll be talking about Tesla's collapse thru the roof and all the money raining in thru it. The product demand is still 1000x (1,000,000x inc. China)beyond product production with minimal in class competition. Elon has silenced the neigh sayers before, he'll do it again. Tesla will be fine.

And if they were acting like a manufacturer (which is what they are) they would be hitting those performance goals. Every industry wants to say they are a tech company - that is such a tired line - when you are trying to make your self look different from the competition. There are companies in my industry that say that all the time and I keep hearing it in every industry.

The fact is every company in the world today will need to use technology to get ahead. And anybody that isn't doing it already is losing share and going the wrong direction. Everybody in every industry is or will be driven by technology going forward.

That doesn't make you a "technology company" - unless by tech company you mean - to sell shares to people that want nothing but an investment that is propped up with more lip stick and botox than an Orange County housewife. The only value I see in "tech" is from an investment point of view and that investment is based on the PT Barnum premise that there is another ( ) born every min.

They build cars (pretty good ones) and they need to build them on time and on budget - if they do they will do great in the long run.

They are a mfg company that uses technology to its fullest. Once they realize that, they will act like a mfg company and get out of the spiral they are in.

I tend to agree, people are trying to look at Tesla through the lens of an auto mfg, they are a technology company, a very advanced one at that, they just happen to also mfg vehicles.
 
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Justfishing

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How ford doesnt find a way to merge these companies is beyond me. Ford makes shit cars. Tesla makes bad ass cars. Ford has tons of capacity tesla has none. Ford just did away with their car fleet focusing on a couple cars. This is an easy buy imo. Ford gets all that tesla technology uses it to make better trucks! I dont see why it doesnt happen


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Because manufacturers are losing money making the card. Is telsa able to make a profit on its cars when others aren't. More production won't help if it isn't making a per unit profit .

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/...ease-a-50-000-bmw-for-less-than-a-subway-pass
 

LargeOrangeFont

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How ford doesnt find a way to merge these companies is beyond me. Ford makes shit cars. Tesla makes bad ass cars. Ford has tons of capacity tesla has none. Ford just did away with their car fleet focusing on a couple cars. This is an easy buy imo. Ford gets all that tesla technology uses it to make better trucks! I dont see why it doesnt happen


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I would not go as far as to say Fo
Because manufacturers are losing money making the card. Is telsa able to make a profit on its cars when others aren't. More production won't help if it isn't making a per unit profit .

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/...ease-a-50-000-bmw-for-less-than-a-subway-pass


Tesla does not have to and cannot afford to do cheap leases on their vehicles. They don’t need the “credits” because their entire fleet is electric.
 

rrrr

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Because manufacturers are losing money making the card. Is telsa able to make a profit on its cars when others aren't. More production won't help if it isn't making a per unit profit .

In the first quarter 2018 Tesla missed making a profit by $753,000,000.

Fourth quarter 2017 losses were 675,000,000.

That's $1.42 billion gone in six months. Today's WSJ reported Tesla is the most shorted stock in the US. Other short positions are going unfilled because there are no shares left to borrow.
 
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Bobby V

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Damn, no wonder he is trying to build a rocket to get to Mars :D
I'm bidding on Phase 1 of the BFR project at the Port of LA tomorrow. Roof structure is 110' with no columns to hold up the roof. Big ass beams. :)
 

Justfishing

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I would not go as far as to say Fo



Tesla does not have to and cannot afford to do cheap leases on their vehicles. They don’t need the “credits” because their entire fleet is electric.
The point of attching the article was the money lost by the auto makers on electric vehicles. This was in the text of the article. The auto makers can keep funding the research from the profits on other vehicles. Telsa doesn't have that. When will people buy the cars without a subsidy.
 

pronstar

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How ford doesnt find a way to merge these companies is beyond me. Ford makes shit cars. Tesla makes bad ass cars. Ford has tons of capacity tesla has none. Ford just did away with their car fleet focusing on a couple cars. This is an easy buy imo. Ford gets all that tesla technology uses it to make better trucks! I dont see why it doesnt happen


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Not so easy when Tesla has a larger market cap than Ford, and also GM for that matter.
 

Icky

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I'm bidding on Phase 1 of the BFR project at the Port of LA tomorrow. Roof structure is 110' with no columns to hold up the roof. Big ass beams. :)
BFR= Big Fucking Rocket?
 

LargeOrangeFont

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The point of attching the article was the money lost by the auto makers on electric vehicles. This was in the text of the article. The auto makers can keep funding the research from the profits on other vehicles. Telsa doesn't have that. When will people buy the cars without a subsidy.

The bigger manufactures are not losing money overall. That is why they can afford to let some go at a loss because in some cases the MUST sell a certain number of them to maintain the mandated MPG across their fleet. Tesla does not have that problem.
 

rrrr

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Not so easy when Tesla has a larger market cap than Ford, and also GM for that matter.

Ford and GM aren't carrying $11 billion in debt. Tesla also has almost $1 billion in convertible bonds maturing this year.

Ford and GM have access to billions in the credit market at favorable rates. Tesla has already collateralized everything they have of value. When they need more money later this year (after announcing they wouldn't) the only thing they can do is issue more stock.

That and their continued failure to produce 3s will tighten the spiral dive, probably past the point of return.
 

pronstar

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Ford and GM aren't carrying $11 billion in debt. Tesla also has almost $1 billion in convertible bonds maturing this year.

Ford and GM have access to billions in the credit market at favorable rates. Tesla has already collateralized everything they have of value. When they need more money later this year (after announcing they wouldn't) the only thing they can do is issue more stock.

That and their continued failure to produce 3s will tighten the spiral dive, probably past the point of return.

GM and Ford are currently profitable, but they both have debt.

As of last year, GM carried over $67B in long-term debt, with liquidity of about $30B (about half cash, the rest credit)

Ford has $102B in long-term debt, with liquidity of about $37B ($26B in cash, the rest credit).

It wouldn’t be easy for either company to simply buy Tesla, which has a market cap of $50B.


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McGruff38

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Tesla will have to scale back their auto division considerably if they plan to survive. The model S is bad ass, no doubt, but even the longevity of that car in the real world is questionable. The proposed numbers of the Model 3 will only magnify the problem. Tesla hasnt figured out that he needs to be able to mass produce parts in higher numbers than the number of cars on the road. There has been quite a few Model S owners break suspension components, and be told that the replacement part is "back ordered". Making hand crafted parts is definitely cool, but when someone breaks one, they cant get a replacement because the priority is making them for the new cars. Tesla really should be looking to merge with one of the Big 3, or even lease his technology to as many manufacturers as possible.
 

pronstar

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Every other carmaker has literally tens of thousands of brilliant engineers who are feverishly working on EVs to compete against Tesla and one another’s upcoming offerings.

Pride alone will prevent any of them from merging with, or buying, Tesla IMHO.

But there’s really no need. Tesla has blue-sky brand value, their technology isn’t a mystery. And no automaker is going to be adopting Tesla manufacturing methods (or lack thereof) anytime soon.

Tesla’s EV technology isn’t that difficult - big battery, powerful electric motors. It’s all limited by the cost and production capacity for batteries, and that’s where Tesla had a head-start. But there’s a lot of battery capacity that’s coming online.

One has to keep in mind that manufacturing on an automaker’s scale takes years to plan and develop. Cars under development today go on sale in 5 years minimum, and that’s without introducing all-new drivetrain technology.

Tesla caught every other automaker snoozing when it came to EV’s. But they’ll soon have competition, and a lot of it.

Whenever you disrupt an industry, you have a small window to capitalize until everyone else wises-up.

It remains to be seen if Tesla can maintain momentum and/or increase demand...or can even meet an increase in demand.

Their current backlog of Model 3 orders is good for them. They need to sell in RAV4-like numbers to turn a profit.

But herein lies the problem: it’s also a sedan and people want crossovers...the allure of an electric car may not be enough to sway future buyers.

Sure, Tesla has crossovers planned. But who knows how long they’ll take to reach the market.




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pronstar

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Tesla will have to scale back their auto division considerably if they plan to survive. The model S is bad ass, no doubt, but even the longevity of that car in the real world is questionable. The proposed numbers of the Model 3 will only magnify the problem. Tesla hasnt figured out that he needs to be able to mass produce parts in higher numbers than the number of cars on the road. There has been quite a few Model S owners break suspension components, and be told that the replacement part is "back ordered". Making hand crafted parts is definitely cool, but when someone breaks one, they cant get a replacement because the priority is making them for the new cars. Tesla really should be looking to merge with one of the Big 3, or even lease his technology to as many manufacturers as possible.

Their problem won’t be solved by scaling back production. That would literally sink them.

They need to make more cars if they’re to remain afloat.

I dunno if there’s a parts shortage, or if it’s affecting the company significantly or not.
But the solution to a parts shortage isn’t make fewer cars.
The solution is to make more parts.

This is what Musk and Wall Street want, and have stated publicly.

They want - they need - operations to grow, not shrink.


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SJP

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I am going to the Costa Mesa Service Center today. o_O I hope the simple door handle issue does not turn into an ordeal...
 

LargeOrangeFont

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I am going to the Costa Mesa Service Center today. o_O I hope the simple door handle issue does not turn into an ordeal...

Should be fine. They will just take a door off of one of the the other cars in there for service waiting for a backordered part.. You should be out of there in 15 minutes. ;)
 

McGruff38

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I guess what I was getting at, was that Tesla needs to come to the realization that they are not a mass production operation. When you are making parts one at a time, you will never keep up with the projected numbers. Yes they need to make more cars, but they are maxed out. Thats why I was saying they need to partner with the auto manufacturers. let them mass produce the parts, and continue with the tech/battery side of it. The name has value as of now, and would make a good marketing plan. "The new Ford Kilowatt, Powered by Tesla!". That kind of thing. If Tesla was capable of simply making more parts, they would be doing it. They should stick to building higher end, lower production cars, if they even stay in building cars at all. As we have seen in the past, Musk can "state" all the things he wants. Musk delivering on things, is an entirely different story. Partnering with the manufacturers would cut operating cost tremendously, and Tesla might actually be able to turn a profit.

Their problem won’t be solved by scaling back production. That would literally sink them.

They need to make more cars if they’re to remain afloat.

I dunno if there’s a parts shortage, or if it’s affecting the company significantly or not.
But the solution to a parts shortage isn’t make fewer cars.
The solution is to make more parts.

This is what Musk and Wall Street want, and have stated publicly.

They want - they need - operations to grow, not shrink.


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rrrr

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GM and Ford are currently profitable, but they both have debt.

As of last year, GM carried over $67B in long-term debt, with liquidity of about $30B (about half cash, the rest credit)

Ford has $102B in long-term debt, with liquidity of about $37B ($26B in cash, the rest credit).

It wouldn’t be easy for either company to simply buy Tesla, which has a market cap of $50B.


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I should have been more specific. Looking at debt compared to any other metric, like revenue or profits, shows that Tesla is on a path that can't be sustained. Compare their 1Q revenues of $3.42 billion to the $753 million loss they posted. Their cash and cash equivalents on hand fell around $570 million in the first quarter.

GM's numbers were $36.1 billion in revenue and profit of $1.05 billion. Ford posted $36.8 billion and $1.74 billion, respectively.

Tesla's market cap has built in optimism about a rosy future, yet so far they have shown a stunning inability to place an assembly line in steady production. With ten times the revenues of Tesla, and an engineering juggernaut that can easily shift to EV production when demand requires it, Ford and GM will bury Tesla when the market shifts.

Tesla's weaknesses can be illustrated by a simple fact. Their chief engineering officer came to the company from Apple. The knowledge and skills to successfully build a complex automobile and produce it in quantities of 1,000 units per day do not have anything to do with making iPads. You are aware of the complexity of the auto industry.

Musk's comments about Tesla's 1Q performance was more of the same old song. He claimed Model 3 production will hit 5,000 units weekly in the second quarter. Actual 1Q production of the vehicle averaged 721 units per week. Bridging that gap seems unlikely to say the least.

So far this quarter, their VP of engineering has taken a leave of absence, the Model 3 production line was shut down for ten days, dozens of third party vendors were pronounced superfluous to Model 3 production and slain on the alter, and hundreds of workers were shifted from the Model S production to the Model 3 line in an attempt to boost production.

Musk also said Tesla will not need to seek additional funding this year, while their 2018 financial numbers thus far make the need for more cash almost a certainty. Musk also dismissed investor's questions about money and production issues as "boring" on a conference call.

Meanwhile, CNBC reported the following information about Ford. GM issued similar forward looking positive statements about growth and revenues.

"The company has found another $11.5 billion in cost cuts and efficiencies, bringing the total to $25.5 billion expected by 2022, Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told reporters. Savings will come from engineering, product development, marketing, materials and manufacturing. The company previously predicted $14 billion in cuts by 2022.

One-third of Ford's belt-tightening will come by the end of 2020, Shanks said.

"We're starting to understand what we need to do and making clear decisions there," Hackett said.

Ford also promised to raise its operating profit margin from 5.2 percent to 8 percent by 2020, two years earlier than a previous forecast. That includes a 10 percent pretax margin in North America.

The company said its first-quarter net income rose 9 percent due largely to a lower income tax rate.

Ford made $1.74 billion from January through March, or 43 cents per share, compared with $1.59 billion, or 40 cents per share a year ago. Revenue rose 7 percent to $41.96 billion."

The above issues indicate Tesla is painting themselves into a corner at an increasingly rapid pace. Musk, hailed as a "genius" by the faithful, continues to set goals that are never reached, and in my estimation the results of 2Q performance will once again show shocking losses and failure to increase production of the Model 3.
 

Sleek-Jet

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Tesla announced over the weekend that the 35,000 dollar Model 3 is all but dead for the time being.

Musk announced a $78,000 performance version to be produced soon. Saying the company would lose money and die if they continued immedietly with plans for the mass market base model.
 

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One of the car magazines did a test on the Model 3 and they said the car is no where near $35K and is closer the $56K mark.

Tesla announced over the weekend that the 35,000 dollar Model 3 is all but dead for the time being.

Musk announced a $78,000 performance version to be produced soon. Saying the company would lose money and die if they continued immedietly with plans for the mass market base model.
 

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Tesla announced over the weekend that the 35,000 dollar Model 3 is all but dead for the time being.

Musk announced a $78,000 performance version to be produced soon. Saying the company would lose money and die if they continued immedietly with plans for the mass market base model.

Like this was a surprise. They have does this with EVERY car they have brought to market. It costs 50% more than promised and delivered a year late :)
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Even at that, it could be a 3 Series killer.

How? They cant make enough of them. And when BMW comes out with an electric 3 series, people would just buy that. Few people want a $56K electric car, except brand zealots that want a Tesla.

A ~ 45K gas powered luxury midsize car, and $10K worth of gas will get you pretty far.
 
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KENDOG689

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I cant believe the dumb shits that are buying these things.Its a talking point for them.Fuckin idiots.
 

pronstar

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One of the car magazines did a test on the Model 3 and they said the car is no where near $35K and is closer the $56K mark.

It’s not all that uncommon in the auto biz.

You’ll often see commercials for Car X starting at $20,000.
Then the fine print at the bottom of the screen “Model shown $32,500”.

Porsche is the most notorious for such “option bloat”.

But to your point its different for Tesla, because they’ve basically stated they aren’t making the base model. If this were any other automaker, or and other retailer, the FTC would be on their ass.


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Xring01

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How? They cant make enough of them. And when BMW comes out with an electric 3 series, people would just buy that. Few people want a $56K electric car, except brand zealots that want a Tesla.

A ~ 45K gas powered luxury midsize car, and $10K worth of gas will get you pretty far.


I have never owned TSLA as a stock, I would probably short it, before I would go long. Either way has risk.

Negatives of TSLA have been discussed at length on this thread. I will not get into them in much details. But Cash Flow, Debt, Manufacturing, Meeting Goals are all items of concern. Most of all, future competition.. Jaguar, Porsche, all the other majors will have a competitive product soon. These are the reasons why I have never owned TSLA...

Positives of TSLA. Brand Recognition, they are the best of breed in Electric Cars, at least most consider them. Battery's - The Gigafactory is being built to build more battery's than Tsla cars will need. Why? So that other manufacturers buy those battery's and install them in their new cars. Which also brings in the Charging Stations. Rapid charging is key to winning the Electric Car race. 80% Charge in 40 mins = 220 mile range in S90... Thats solves most peoples transportation problems, especially when those charging stations are near a coffee shop, mall, shopping etc. Thats the biggest weakness to TSLA competition is a network of Rapid Chargers. These are the reasons why I have never shorted TSLA.

The key thing I havent figured out yet. Why havent the major gas stations put in Rapid Chargers. The biggest profit at a gas station is the slurpees, hot dogs, beer, cokes, chips ice.. Not gas. So add Rapid Chargers... Why havent they embraced this???? To much money not to.

As you can see, I am watching them... they will not stay at this stock price much longer... It will go up $100, or down $150....
 
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