Tesla Continues to collapse.

[500bbc]

But you aren't tired of people killing thousands more than the automated cars?

Everyone focuses on every tesla fatality but ignore thousands of others.

Its hilarious.

What's the current ratio?

 

[Uncle Dave]

Hard to get current year statistics, but roughly 1 to all others so far in 2018, but there about 3300 fatalities a month on average.

If 2018 is like 2017 then it will be something like 40K to 2.

Tesla was cleared in autopilot deaths last year.

Oh the horrors of the .001%.


UD

 

[Uncle Dave]

What the hell is the point of having a self driving car if you need to drive it ?

The point is that every automated feature you add reduces your chance of an accident.

Today there is no such thing as a "self driving" car available only partial automation.
We have driver assist features and collision mitigation features and they are really nice and work exactly as intended.

Anybody with different data Id like to see it. Without data - inputs on the subject are mere opinions.

(not aimed at anyone in particular) There are facts, and there are opinions - everyone has an opinion.

 

[wsuwrhr]

The ratio of autotonomous cars on the road is rather small comparatively speaking, so ANY accident is significant....Just sayin.

Ill drive myself, thanks.

Hard to get current year statistics, but roughly 1 to all others so far in 2018, but there about 3300 fatalities a month on average.

If 2018 is like 2017 then it will be something like 40K to 2.

Tesla was cleared in autopilot deaths last year.

Oh the horrors of the .001%.


UD

 

[Uncle Dave]

The ratio of autotonomous cars on the road is rather small comparatively speaking, so ANY accident is significant....Just sayin.

Ill drive myself, thanks.

You and I will be doing the driving for some time, as there are no autonomous cars available for sale yet.

Collision mitigation and driver assist features have become standard on may autos starting at about 2014-15.
A few high end Marques before that had collision mitigation braking.

There is significant data available on comparative crash rates between cars with and without these features compiled by the IHSTA and IHLDA.

These features reduce accidents, but the accidents that do occur a a tin bit more money 109 bones on average as collisions take out the sensors.

UD

 

[wsuwrhr]

Autonomous, being a general term sir, since the media DOES call them self driving, autonomous, cars.

You and I will be doing the driving for some time, as there are no autonomous cars available for sale yet.

Collision mitigation and driver assist features have become standard on may autos starting at about 2014-15.
A few high end Marques before that had collision mitigation braking.

There is significant data available on comparative crash rates between cars with and without these features compiled by the IHSTA and IHLDA.

These features reduce accidents, but the accidents that do occur a a tin bit more money 109 bones on average as collisions take out the sensors.

UD

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Autonomous, being a general term sir, since the media DOES call them self driving, autonomous, cars.

The media knows as much about autonomous cars as they do about assault weapons.

 

[wsuwrhr]

Be that as it may, those are the terms, generally speaking, peeps use to describe said items.

Incorrect or not.

Do we need to start having lawyers review and approve our posts?

Brian

The media knows as much about autonomous cars as they do about assault weapons.

 

[Uncle Dave]

Be that as it may, those are the terms, generally speaking, peeps use to describe said items.

Incorrect or not.

Do we need to start having lawyers review and approve our posts?

Brian

God I hope not.

I would hope a bunch of guys as smart as this crew can do just a a tiny bit of investigation before they talk about "Killing machines".



UD

 

[Uncle Dave]

Sorry it was supposed to be humorous. Guess I’ll add more wink wink emojis


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

No worries here just a bunch a guys shooting the shit.
It would be more fun at a campfire because everyone would be less sensitive.

UD

 

[Uncle Dave]

The media knows as much about autonomous cars as they do about assault weapons.

Boy aint that the truth.

 

[pronstar]

Good article on Tesla’s crash statistics.

https://www.csmonitor.com/Business/...e-is-Tesla-Autopilot-A-look-at-the-statistics

One could derive a stellar record, or a terrible record, depending on what dataset is used.

To Brian’s point, the sample size is simply too small to be meaningful.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

[Uncle Dave]

Good article on Tesla’s crash statistics.

https://www.csmonitor.com/Business/...e-is-Tesla-Autopilot-A-look-at-the-statistics

One could derive a stellar record, or a terrible record, depending on what dataset is used.

To Brian’s point, the sample size is simply too small to be meaningful.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Brian is 100% correct about "autonomous" vehicles

- but when it comes to level 2 (sorry I said 3 earlier its being reclassified all the time) features of which the tesla offers - there is a large dataset available.


UD

 

[Raffit78]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...l-collapse-says-hedge-fund-manager-2018-03-27


not looking good. Months from a complete collapse. All time lows today.

 

[ChumpChange]

Was kicking myself for a while when I took profits at $310 and it kept running. I feel better now.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...l-collapse-says-hedge-fund-manager-2018-03-27


not looking good. Months from a complete collapse. All time lows today.

Nothing to see here! Move along!

Musk is gonna walk with billions even when it implodes, because even though the company is a loser, the brand alone will sell cars and is worth at least something.

This is just like the end of most Silicon Valley startups.

 

[Raffit78]

Moody’s downgrades the stock to a B3, like saying you just went from a sub prime borrower looking for a hard money loan.

Pretty soon it will be called GM.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Uncle Dave]

I got out at 250 from 50 so no dog in the hunt anymore, but I don't see it failing -

If he has to - He can sell off enough bits of equity to kept going until run rate on the three realizes.


UD

 

[pronstar]

Brian is 100% correct about "autonomous" vehicles

- but when it comes to level 2 (sorry I said 3 earlier its being reclassified all the time) features of which the tesla offers - there is a large dataset available.


UD

Methinks you didn’t look at the link. It’s not Tesla hit piece, I think y’all know me better than that.

It’s really not a large dataset when literally one additional fatality/anomaly in a Tesla-involved crash can significantly skew the result.

A few thousand cars over a few million miles, over 4 years is nothing compared to hundreds of millions of cars, hundreds of billions of miles and decades of driving in conventional cars...where one anomaly won’t significicantly affect a trend.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

[Uncle Dave]

Methinks you didn’t look at the link. It’s not Tesla hit piece, I think y’all know me better than that.

It’s really not a large dataset when literally one additional fatality/anomaly in a Tesla-involved crash can significantly skew the result.

A few thousand cars over a few million miles, over 4 years is nothing compared to hundreds of millions of cars, hundreds of billions of miles and decades of driving in conventional cars...where one anomaly won’t significicantly affect a trend.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Ar you talking abut the Christian science monitors opinion article? I did - most of it was redacted out as Im not a paying member.

Ive also spend lots of time on the IHSTA and IHLDA sites looking at the data - there are reams of it, did you look at the PDF I poster earlier ?

UD

 

[pronstar]

Ar you talking abut the Christian science monitors opinion article? I did - most of it was redacted out as Im not a paying member.

Ive also spend lots of time on the IHSTA and IHLDA sites looking at the data - there are reams of it, did you look at the PDF I poster earlier ?

UD

The Tesla-specific stats.
I’ve seen the stats you posted, no disagreement there.

There’s plenty of data that shows auto braking, lane assist and the like are helping to save lives [emoji106]
Modern cars can be very safe.

If you guys are looking for a car for a significant person in your life, these 11 models are tracking a zero deaths from 2012 a 2015.

This is IIHS data, folks.

http://m.fleetfinancials.com/news/269079/overall-driver-death-rates-up

The 11 models with zero driver deaths include the Audi A6 Quattro, Audi Q7 Quattro, rear-wheel drive BMW 535i, BMW 535xi xDrive, Jeep Cherokee 4x4, Lexus CT 200h, front-wheel Lexus RX 350, front-wheel drive Mazda CX-9, Mercedes-Benz M-Class 4Matic, Toyota Tacoma Double Cab Long Bed 4x4, and front-wheel Volkswagen Tiguan.

IIHS based the new driver death rates on fatalities that occurred from 2012 to 2015. The organization looked at 2014 models, as well as equivalent models from 2012, 2013 and 2015, in calculating the driver death rates.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

[lbhsbz]

The Tesla-specific stats.
I’ve seen the stats you posted, no disagreement there.

There’s plenty of dat that shows auto braking, lane assist and the like are helping to save lives [emoji106]
Modern cars can be very safe.

If you guys are looking for a car for a significant person in your life, these 11 models are tracking a zero deaths from 2012 a 2015.

This is IIHS data, folks.

http://m.fleetfinancials.com/news/269079/overall-driver-death-rates-up

The 11 models with zero driver deaths include the Audi A6 Quattro, Audi Q7 Quattro, rear-wheel drive BMW 535i, BMW 535xi xDrive, Jeep Cherokee 4x4, Lexus CT 200h, front-wheel Lexus RX 350, front-wheel drive Mazda CX-9, Mercedes-Benz M-Class 4Matic, Toyota Tacoma Double Cab Long Bed 4x4, and front-wheel Volkswagen Tiguan.

IIHS based the new driver death rates on fatalities that occurred from 2012 to 2015. The organization looked at 2014 models, as well as equivalent models from 2012, 2013 and 2015, in calculating the driver death rates.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

I've experienced zero deaths in my 17 year old truck for 17 years...it has power windows and A/C.

Train your significant person to put the damn phone down and pay attention, and they can have the same non-death experience in any car or truck.

 

[Uncle Dave]

I've experienced zero deaths in my 17 year old truck for 17 years...it has power windows and A/C.

Train your significant person to put the damn phone down and pay attention, and they can have the same non-death experience in any car or truck.

If only we could teach everyone to do the same thing we wouldn't have any problems, but we can't.


UD

 

[wsuwrhr]

If my Aunt had a dick, I would call her Uncle, too.

All this BS just another link in the chain to make people stoooopeder.

Brian

If only we could teach everyone to do the same thing we wouldn't have any problems, but we can't.


UD

 

[Uncle Dave]

If my Aunt had a dick, I would call her Uncle, too.

All this BS just another link in the chain to make people stoooopeder.

Brian

If my Aunt had a dick, I would call her Uncle, too.

All this BS just another link in the chain to make people stoooopeder.

Brian

They are already there.

Almost all the level 2 collision mitigation nannies will be on base corollas and low end cars in a few years time.

Were headed to the johnny cab model from total recall. I ordered my own sprinter without all the nannies.

With the Honda it came with the package.

UD

 

[wsuwrhr]

Obviously.

Along with 100's of other factors "Darwin" warned about that ensures for a species to survive. People that are not intelligent by "natural" means, I guess, that are not forced to educate themselves, are the downfall of us all.

The FIRST thing I do when I start my Magnum SRT is turn off all the nanny bullshit. Irritates me that I even have to do that. If someone cannot drive a type of car successfully without causing accidents, then they fucking shouldn't be driving that car, or any other car.

The state reminds me on all my renewals that driving is a privilege, not a right.

Not to mention the every increasing costs associated with automobiles with all this extra bullshit installed that the majority of the people don't even need.

Rant off.

Brian

They are already there.

Almost all the level 2 collision mitigation nannies will be on base corollas and low end cars in a few years time.

Were headed to the johnny cab model from total recall. I ordered my own sprinter without all the nannies.

With the Honda it came with the package.

UD

 

[spectras only]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/com...questions-swirl-around-fatal-crash/ar-BBKNDIZ

 

[rrrr]

I got out at 250 from 50 so no dog in the hunt anymore, but I don't see it failing -

If he has to - He can sell off enough bits of equity to kept going until run rate on the three realizes.

UD

This is a long reply, but worth reading if you are at all interested in the ability of Tesla to continue operations.

There are 4.3 weeks in a month (52/12). In a conference call six months ago, Musk told analysts that the company would be building 1,395 Model 3 automobiles per week. In the first two weeks of February, Tesla built 958 Model 3s per week. The production line was shut down for four days later in the month to adjust some production line issues, and e company is now building 1,076 per week. That is 23% less than the goal stated in September 2017.

All equity and goodwill in Tesla is spoken for by bond issues, recourse loans, convertible notes, and other financial obligations. These have the company leveraged in such a way that its liabilities outweigh its assets out of all proportion with any other automobile manufacturer, and probably any publicly traded company in the US. One obvious example is the $3.4 billion in debt related to its acquisition of SolarCity.

Articles posted yesterday and today on the Forbes website provide some detail of that debt, which is all convertible notes due in stages this year and next, with the final payments due in November 2019. The articles were written by Jim Collins, a respected analyst of automotive companies' financial dealings.

Tesla’s convertible notes issued in 2013 and 2014 were a huge success for investors and the company, with infinitesimal coupon rates and conversion prices well below the current stock price. In contrast, SolarCity's convertibles, now fully guaranteed by Tesla, are well underwater and need to be redeemed soon.

Tesla has $230 million in face value of SCTY converts due in November 2018 with a conversion factor of $560/Tesla share. It gets worse next year, as $566 million of old SCTY converts mature in November 2019, and those notes carry a pie-in-the-sky conversion factor of $759/TSLA share. So, that's nearly $800 million of liabilities that will, in all likelihood, need to be settled in cash.

That $800 million in cash has to come from free cash flow or more debt. At this point, the most likely source is a large sale of Musk's personal shares, which will dilute the value and further reduce the price per share. In January, Tesla sold its lease receivables to a factoring entity, a move usually practiced by small companies on their way into oblivion.

That fate, unthinkable in September 2017, seems increasingly likely. On February 28, 2018, Tesla's market capitalization (the share price multiplied by the number of issued shares) was $59.29 billion. Yesterday that number had fallen to $43.54 billion. That is a reduction of 26.5% in the last thirty days, a shocking decline.

Collin's analysis of Tesla's situation predicts a grim future for the firm, and it's a scenario that is literally just months away.

If Tesla does not raise capital in the next three months, I believe it will be increasingly difficult for TSLA to convince its business partners that it is a viable entity. And let me tell you, that is exactly what the other automakers want to see.

It may indeed be better to burn out than to fade away, but if you hold TSLA shares you need to prepare yourself for the very real possibility that Tesla will cease to exist within 12 months. Without fresh capital that’s the most likely outcome, in my opinion. It's scary prospect, but with a market valuation of $49 billion--still not even remotely priced into TSLA shares.

The market cap of $49 billion mentioned above represents an indication of the tightening spiral. On Wednesday that figure dropped $5.46 billion, and the price per share fell to $257.78, a decline of 7.67% compared to Tuesday's price. On September 17, 2017, shares were quoted at $385.00. The stock has declined 18.5% in one week and 33% since the September high.

Links to Forbes articles:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcol...hat-musk-is-running-out-of-time/#24c35353578a

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcol...eing-exposed-in-its-stock-price/#24a2b1be75f2

 

[Pesky Varmint]

Tesla buyers are not buying P100D ludicrous for 150k because they are saving the planet, they are buying it because it is an emotional purchase no different than someone driving a 488GTB every day in traffic or buying a big boat.

Is Tesla a long-term business model that can succeed? Who knows?

But the buyer of the P100D doesn't really give a shit, he just cares he has a car that can at least til the next light give the 488 a run for its money.

And then, when you see them on the long haul freeways or rural highways they are poking along at 70 mph while the flow of car traffic is doing 85. Gotta maximize range. I always wanted to have a race with a Tesla from Phoenix to LA and back. $1000 purse. We'll use my wifes 1-ton Duramax. Oh yes, we'll never need to exceed the legal speed limit (although normally we always do).

 

[lard ass]

Fill them full of illegals and push "south".

 

[rrrr]

Here's a quote from a story linked above. This fund manager cuts through the bullshit and lays out the real real.

“As a reality check, Tesla is worth twice as much as Ford [estimate of the enterprise value of both companies], yet Ford F, +2.03% made 6 million cars last year at a $7.6 billion profit while Tesla made 100,000 cars at a $2 billion loss,” Thompson said. “Further, Ford has $12 billion in cash held for ‘a rainy day’ while Tesla will likely run out of money in the next 3 months. I’ve never seen anything so absurd in my career."

 

[rrrr]

Now Tesla is using tactics pioneered by the failed Soviet Union.


"Tesla Inc. exhorted its factory workers to disprove the “haters” betting against the company and is letting a small number of volunteers join the effort to ramp up output of the crucial Model 3 line.

In a pair of internal memos last week, the heads of engineering and production spelled out measures to free up workers for the Model 3 line and challenged them to reach production goals.

Doug Field, the engineering chief, told staff that if they can exceed 300 Model 3s a day, it would be an “incredible victory” at a time when short-sellers and critics are increasingly doubting the company’s ability to fulfill CEO Elon Musk’s vision of building a mass-production electric-vehicle manufacturer".

 

[wsuwrhr]

Motivate them with cash, the same cash that motivates the genius.

That is how you get it done.

Now Tesla is using tactics pioneered by the failed Soviet Union.


"Tesla Inc. exhorted its factory workers to disprove the “haters” betting against the company and is letting a small number of volunteers join the effort to ramp up output of the crucial Model 3 line.

In a pair of internal memos last week, the heads of engineering and production spelled out measures to free up workers for the Model 3 line and challenged them to reach production goals.

Doug Field, the engineering chief, told staff that if they can exceed 300 Model 3s a day, it would be an “incredible victory” at a time when short-sellers and critics are increasingly doubting the company’s ability to fulfill CEO Elon Musk’s vision of building a mass-production electric-vehicle manufacturer".

 

[PainterShane]

If tesla went out of business everyone who owns one of their cars would be screwed because they wouldnt be able to get parts for their cars anymore. Im sure Tesla will just keep using government money....

 

[rrrr]

.

Has anyone heard of Alexei Stakhanov? His supposed ability to outwork several other men by himself turned into a movement named after him. It was all fabricated by the Soviet Communist Party.

.

"Stakhanov was born in Lugovaya, a village near Livny, Oryol Governorate, in 1906. He began working in a mine called "Tsentralnaya-Irmino" in Kadievka (Donbass). In 1933, Stakhanov became a jackhammer operator. In 1935, he took a local course in mining. On 31 August 1935, it was reported that he had mined a record 102 tonnes of coal in 5 hours and 45 minutes (14 times his quota).[2]

On 19 September, Stakhanov was reported to have set a new record by mining 227 tonnes of coal in a single shift.[3] His example was held up in newspapers and posters as a model for others to follow, and he appeared on the cover of Time magazine in the United States.[4][5][6]


Stakhanov on the cover of Time Magazine, 16 December 1935
In 1936–1941, Stakhanov was a student of the Industrial Academy in Moscow. In 1941–1942, he was appointed director of mine No. 31 in Karaganda. Between 1943 and 1957, Stakhanov worked in the Ministry of Coal Industry of the USSR. In 1957–1959, he was deputy director of the Chistyakovantratsit trust, and after that, assistant chief engineer at the mine management office No. 2/43 of the Torezantratsit trust until his retirement in 1974.

Stakhanov was a deputy of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR of the first convocation. He was awarded two Orders of Lenin, Order of the Red Banner of Labour, and numerous medals. The last Sunday of August was designated "Coal Miner's Day", also apparently in his honor.

The town of Kadievka in eastern Ukraine where he started his work was renamed Stakhanov in his honour in 1978, after his death."

 

[jet496]

Tesla is here to stay. I'd buy right now if I had freed up money.

 

[Enen]

Here's a quote from a story linked above. This fund manager cuts through the bullshit and lays out the real real.

“As a reality check, Tesla is worth twice as much as Ford [estimate of the enterprise value of both companies], yet Ford F, +2.03% made 6 million cars last year at a $7.6 billion profit while Tesla made 100,000 cars at a $2 billion loss,” Thompson said. “Further, Ford has $12 billion in cash held for ‘a rainy day’ while Tesla will likely run out of money in the next 3 months. I’ve never seen anything so absurd in my career."

It's hard to argue with these facts. The valuations seem to be way out of line. Anyone shorting Tesla now?

 

[thmterry]

Is SpaceX part of Tesla money numbers or is it a totally separate business?

 

[Paul65k]

So update on day to day business dealings..........I wrote at the beginning of this thread that I had asked for a refund of my deposit for the model 3 which looking back was given on 4/2/2016.......almost 2 years ago today!

I ashed my my refund on November 17th, 2017 and never really followed up but when checking found that it never came back

Well I just got off the phone with them and bottom line is......the cancellation is noted and the check was ordered but................it never went out, according to the person on the phone "It fell through the cracks".......I'm guessing that I'll need to be the squeeky wheel from this point on and they may run out of $$ before I get paid so I'm siding with the folks that think they are truly running out of $$$.

 

[spectras only]

So update on day to day business dealings..........I wrote at the beginning of this thread that I had asked for a refund of my deposit for the model 3 which looking back was given on 4/2/2016.......almost 2 years ago today!

I ashed my my refund on November 17th, 2017 and never really followed up but when checking found that it never came back

Well I just got off the phone with them and bottom line is......the cancellation is noted and the check was ordered but................it never went out, according to the person on the phone "It fell through the cracks".......I'm guessing that I'll need to be the squeeky wheel from this point on and they may run out of $$ before I get paid so I'm siding with the folks that think they are truly running out of $$$.

Worked for a company back in 1973 who's owner was the president of the Rotary Club. One day , decided to change company and was at the recieving end of bouncing check. Royal Bank who managed his payroll tells me, he's a good customer and after moaning and groaning, they cleared the check. Found out later, he was pumping all his money to the club and his Costa Rica investment deals. All my ex colleagues got bouncing checks for 6-8 months with promises to get paid, before they all decided to quit. The company folded. There will always be entrepreneurs with a pipe dream, ripping honest working people off.

 

[pronstar]

So update on day to day business dealings..........I wrote at the beginning of this thread that I had asked for a refund of my deposit for the model 3 which looking back was given on 4/2/2016.......almost 2 years ago today!

I ashed my my refund on November 17th, 2017 and never really followed up but when checking found that it never came back

Well I just got off the phone with them and bottom line is......the cancellation is noted and the check was ordered but................it never went out, according to the person on the phone "It fell through the cracks".......I'm guessing that I'll need to be the squeeky wheel from this point on and they may run out of $$ before I get paid so I'm siding with the folks that think they are truly running out of $$$.

You could sell it.
If it’s an early spot, you can make some dough.

Look on Craigslist, Tesla forums and the like. People are selling their reservations [emoji106]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

[wsuwrhr]

So, a true Ponzi scheme. Nice.

You could sell it.
If it’s an early spot, you can make some dough.

Look on Craigslist, Tesla forums and the like. People are selling their reservations [emoji106]

 

[Paul65k]

You could sell it.
If it’s an early spot, you can make some dough.

Look on Craigslist, Tesla forums and the like. People are selling their reservations [emoji106]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

So........when I called today to follow up on the refund the guy said "You're in luck we have a cancellation and I can get you a car today"........it get's fishyer and fishyer

 

[KENDOG689]

Half the cars recalled???

 

[500bbc]

So update on day to day business dealings..........I wrote at the beginning of this thread that I had asked for a refund of my deposit for the model 3 which looking back was given on 4/2/2016.......almost 2 years ago today!

I ashed my my refund on November 17th, 2017 and never really followed up but when checking found that it never came back

Well I just got off the phone with them and bottom line is......the cancellation is noted and the check was ordered but................it never went out, according to the person on the phone "It fell through the cracks".......I'm guessing that I'll need to be the squeeky wheel from this point on and they may run out of $$ before I get paid so I'm siding with the folks that think they are truly running out of $$$.

I recently had a douche bag that wouldn't pay use the excuse (5th or 6th), "Shoot! I made the check out but I forgot to tear it at the little perforations".
Sounds like he's related.

 

[530RL]

Beat expectations but down in aftermarket trading.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/tesla-beats-expectations-202145050.html

 

[sirbob]

While I have never been a fan of Teslas - even though one of my best friends has 3 of them - I can appreciate the car they build. That said - I would rely on Bob Lutzs' opinion and working knowledge of what it takes to keep a car company afloat much more then I would Musks'.

Here is an article and a video that was recently published regarding Bobs opinion about the long term viability of Tesla.


https://www.teslarati.com/bob-lutz-vs-elon-musk-history/

In this corner, the father of the Chevrolet Volt, an auto industry veteran who has held senior positions at Chrysler, Ford and BMW, an unlikely advocate for EVs – a cigar-chomping ex-Marine who has called climate change “a crock.” Bob Lutz!

In the other corner, the mastermind of PayPal, SolarCity, and SpaceX, the archetypal Silicon Valley entrepreneur, who wants to electrify transportation and save Planet Earth – and if that doesn’t work, he’ll take us to Mars to start over. Elon Musk!

Back in the day, Bob Lutz was a champion of Tesla and Musk, citing the Roadster as a major inspiration for the Volt, and saying that he would “always owe them a debt of gratitude for having kind of broken the ice.” After Lutz left GM, he founded Via Motors, which set out to build plug-in hybrid vans and pickup trucks for commercial fleets, but has had a difficult time finding its market. The 85-year-old Lutz has written extensively about the auto industry. For whatever reason, he has evolved into a harsh critic of EVs, and especially Tesla. In 2016, he compared Musk to the leader of a religious cult. (Musk responded on Twitter, saying, “Dear cult members, I love you.”)




Lutz launched his latest salvo against the California upstarts at a forum sponsored by a provider of insurance for collectible cars, suggesting that collectors buy a Model S now before Tesla goes belly-up. He had nothing but praise for the car itself: “A Model S, especially with the performance upgrades, is one of the fastest, best handling, best braking sedans that you could buy in the world today,” he said. “The acceleration times will beat any $350,000 European exotic.”

However, Lutz said Elon Musk “hasn’t figured out the revenues have to be greater than costs…when you are perennially running out of cash you are just not running a good automobile company. I don’t see anything on the horizon that’s going to fix that, so those of you who are interested in collector cars, may I suggest buying a Tesla Model S while they’re still available.”


Above: Bob Lutz starts to discuss Tesla and Elon Musk at the 1:06:19 mark in the video (Youtube: Hagerty via InsideEVs)

“Twenty-five years from now, [the Model S] will be remembered as the first really good-looking, fast electric car,” Lutz told the LA Times. “People will say ‘Too bad they went‎ broke.’”

This time, Musk does not appear to have responded publicly to Lutz’s zinger, but naturally, a number of his disciples have come to his defense. Enrique Dans, writing in Forbes, notes his admiration for Lutz’s writings on the auto industry, but believes that “he has missed something enormously important. In fact, possibly the most important difference between the old and the new economy: fundamentally, timeframes.”

Lutz (along with legions of stock-market analysts) sees Tesla’s ongoing losses as a sign of the company’s inevitable failure. However, according to Dans, “Seeing the bottom line as the be-all and end-all of management is problematic…The principle that revenue must exceed costs is Management 101. The tricky bit is how you define the timeframe in which that has to happen.”

As anyone following the Tesla story knows by now, the company’s stock market valuation has no apparent connection to the number of vehicles it’s producing. Tesla’s market cap, currently around $59 billion, exceeds that of Ford, and rivals those of GM and Honda (which, interestingly, was once the subject of the same sort of criticismnow leveled at Tesla). Stock-market pundits tend to see this lofty valuation as madness, proof of the irrationality of Elon Musk’s mindless minions. However, Enrique Dans finds the reason in fundamental differences in the companies’ missions, and the timeframes in which they expect to fulfill them.

If you parse the pedantic “mission statements” on the legacy automakers’ web sites, you’ll find that they basically amount to: “We want to sell cars.” Tesla’s mission statement is very different: “To accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible.”

Tesla doesn’t just want to sell cars, it wants to change the world. This massive difference of ambition is reflected in the longer timeframe that Tesla envisions.

“In the economy Bob Lutz and other traditional car industry players understand, the goal and the metrics were clear: the quarterly results,” Dans writes. “If they were below what the analysts expected, bad; if they were higher, good. End of story. But the rules have changed…For today’s companies, profits are not the goal, they’re the cherry on the cake. Because the idea is, in the long term, to move toward an infinitely more ambitious goal, one that entails a whole new level of change. Companies that have grasped this can spend many years, even decades, without making a profit, as long as they are able to create a narrative that shows they are on the right track toward the defined goal.”

Tesla’s long road to ultimate triumph is not unprecedented – it’s a path that’s been trodden by other tech companies that set out to transform an industry. “For how many years did Amazon continue turning in negative quarterly results while its share price rose steadily?” asks Dans. “Did Jeff Bezos…supply his investors with drugs to maintain their confidence? Yes, he did, actually: a powerful substance called growth and clarity in the use of funds obtained. Amazon’s mission was never to sell stuff, but to change the world.”

Amazon is not the only example. In this age of instant communication, in which whole industries can be radically transformed, or even disappear, “reporting a profit each quarter has never been less important.”

“If Lutz is right, if the grand plans for a new economy that will change the world are bullshit, Tesla will go bust,” Dans concedes. “But if Tesla’s plans and strategy make sense, it may well spend a long time in the red, but it will end up as the auto industry’s benchmark.”

Change is taking place ever faster, and humans’ attention spans are growing ever shorter, so it may seem counter-intuitive that the timeline for corporate success should grow longer. However, even in the fast-paced internet era, changing the world, or even one industry, can’t be done in the space of one quarter. Tesla’s mission is a risky one, but so far investors are willing to accept that risk.

Bob Lutz and Elon Musk look at the world in two different ways, and they have very different visions of the future. Which one will prove prophetic? We shall see.

 

[SBMech]

Funny, missions statements from companies that "want to change the world" always seem to rub me the wrong way.

So far, the only change I have seen has not really done anything to "change the world" from these giant companies (Google, Amazon, Tesla).

They have changed privacy, they have changed the media (not in a good way), they have changed how their "industry" works, but all I really see is them (like every other company) making money.

I continue to watch and see what will come of Tesla, being in the "Industry" it is certainly interesting.

 

[RitcheyRch]

We had a SCE maintenance power outage in our neighborhood yesterday and it was kind of funny to see those with EV's being stuck at home.

EDIT: the power outage was from 8am until about 8pm.

 

[Sleek-Jet]

So update on day to day business dealings..........I wrote at the beginning of this thread that I had asked for a refund of my deposit for the model 3 which looking back was given on 4/2/2016.......almost 2 years ago today!

I ashed my my refund on November 17th, 2017 and never really followed up but when checking found that it never came back

Well I just got off the phone with them and bottom line is......the cancellation is noted and the check was ordered but................it never went out, according to the person on the phone "It fell through the cracks".......I'm guessing that I'll need to be the squeeky wheel from this point on and they may run out of $$ before I get paid so I'm siding with the folks that think they are truly running out of $$$.

Elon Musk = Jim Bede ?