Tesla Continues to collapse.

[LargeOrangeFont]

I have never owned TSLA as a stock, I would probably short it, before I would go long. Either way has risk.

Negatives of TSLA have been discussed at length on this thread. I will not get into them in much details. But Cash Flow, Debt, Manufacturing, Meeting Goals are all items of concern. Most of all, future competition.. Jaguar, Porsche, all the other majors will have a competitive product soon. These are the reasons why I have never owned TSLA...

Positives of TSLA. Brand Recognition, they are the best of breed in Electric Cars, at least most consider them. Battery's - The Gigafactory is being built to build more battery's than Tsla cars will need. Why? So that other manufacturers buy those battery's and install them in their new cars. Which also brings in the Charging Stations. Rapid charging is key to winning the Electric Car race. 80% Charge in 40 mins = 220 mile range in S90... Thats solves most peoples transportation problems, especially when those charging stations are near a coffee shop, mall, shopping etc. Thats the biggest weakness to TSLA competition is a network of Rapid Chargers. These are the reasons why I have never shorted TSLA.

The key thing I havent figured out yet. Why havent the major gas stations put in Rapid Chargers. The biggest profit at a gas station is the slurpees, hot dogs, beer, cokes, chips ice.. Not gas. So add Rapid Chargers... Why havent they embraced this???? To much money not to.

As you can see, I am watching them... they will not stay at this stock price much longer... It will go up $100, or down $150....

They are making batteries for houses, not cars Until you can buy an all electric normal sized car for $30K that can go 300 miles, electric cars are not going to have significant market share.

Gas stations have not embraced rapid charging because of the cost of infrastructure to bring that kind of electrical power to the property. How many stations are they going to have? 1? 2? They are not going to have 10, at least not anytime soon. The charging station will not be filled all the time, and if more than a couple people want to charge, you are turning customers away.

They are better off installing a car wash with that space or another set of gas pumps.

Even at 40 minutes, there are only certain places where people would want to "rapid" charge. The fast chargers are more conducive to be located at shopping centers, restaurants, and malls, not gas stations. Few people want to sit in their car in a gas station parking lot in their $70-$130K Tesla for 40 minutes.

 

[Xring01]

They are making batteries for houses, not cars Until you can buy an all electric normal sized car for $30K that can go 300 miles, electric cars are not going to have significant market share.

Gas stations have not embraced rapid charging because of the cost of infrastructure to bring that kind of electrical power to the property. How many stations are they going to have? 1? 2? They are not going to have 10, at least not anytime soon. The charging station will not be filled all the time, and if more than a couple people want to charge, you are turning customers away.

They are better off installing a car wash with that space or another set of gas pumps.

Even at 40 minutes, there are only certain places where people would want to "rapid" charge. The fast chargers are more conducive to be located at shopping centers, restaurants, and malls, not gas stations. Few people want to sit in their car in a gas station parking lot for 40 minutes.

Below is cut and paste from the Gigafactory Website:
"Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy through increasingly affordable electric vehicles and energy products. To achieve its planned production rate of 500,000 cars per year by 2018, Tesla alone will require today’s entire worldwide supply of lithium-ion batteries. The Tesla Gigafactory was born out of necessity and will supply enough batteries to support Tesla’s projected vehicle demand."

https://www.tesla.com/gigafactory

So, they make Car Battery's there correct?

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Below is cut and paste from the Gigafactory Website:
"Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy through increasingly affordable electric vehicles and energy products. To achieve its planned production rate of 500,000 cars per year by 2018, Tesla alone will require today’s entire worldwide supply of lithium-ion batteries. The Tesla Gigafactory was born out of necessity and will supply enough batteries to support Tesla’s projected vehicle demand."

https://www.tesla.com/gigafactory

So, they make Car Battery's there correct?

Oh yes let's take the Tesla marketing jargon as truth.

They make batteries there, period. The batteries are used for cars, houses, etc. There is probably legitimate money to be made making batteries for other manufacturers and purposes. Tesla is not making enough cars alone to keep that factory operational, which was the point of my comment above.

If Tesla were making 500,000 cars per year by 2018, this thread would not exist. They just had their most productive quarter in company history last quarter and made just under 35,000 cars. If they have 3 more quarters like that, they will be at about 28% of their marketing projections you quoted above. So the reality is, they are not making that many cars, and the factory is not built out fully and/or is underutilized based on Tesla's production alone.

To put all that into perspective, Ford sells on average just under 2500 F series trucks PER DAY in America.

 

[squeezer]

They are making batteries for houses, not cars Until you can buy an all electric normal sized car for $30K that can go 300 miles, electric cars are not going to have significant market share.

Gas stations have not embraced rapid charging because of the cost of infrastructure to bring that kind of electrical power to the property. How many stations are they going to have? 1? 2? They are not going to have 10, at least not anytime soon. The charging station will not be filled all the time, and if more than a couple people want to charge, you are turning customers away.

They are better off installing a car wash with that space or another set of gas pumps.

Even at 40 minutes, there are only certain places where people would want to "rapid" charge. The fast chargers are more conducive to be located at shopping centers, restaurants, and malls, not gas stations. Few people want to sit in their car in a gas station parking lot in their $70-$130K Tesla for 40 minutes.

I don't think we will see commercial/consumer scale DC fast charging for a long time. My wife bought an I3 in November for her work commute. She has needed to charge away from home exactly twice in six months. And keep in mind its a short range car at 75 miles/charge (And she does not have a charge station at work). You will see more and more of the 220V A/C stations at retail points however.

We really like the I3. The driving experience is more fun than it should be and the energy costs are 1/4 of her old car (A Mini Cooper S). It is very much an in city commuter and would be terrible as a persons only car because of range limitations.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I don't think we will see commercial/consumer scale DC fast charging for a long time. My wife bought an I3 in November for her work commute. She has needed to charge away from home exactly twice in six months. And keep in mind its a short range car at 75 miles/charge (And she does not have a charge station at work). You will see more and more of the 220V A/C stations at retail points however.

We really like the I3. The driving experience is more fun than it should be and the energy costs are 1/4 of her old car (A Mini Cooper S). It is very much an in city commuter and would be terrible as a persons only car because of range limitations.

Agreed. As the ranges go up, the need for a dense infrastructure of quick chargers is not needed anyway. That will drive the cost up of a "quick charge" though. With the way housing is going in populated areas, I could see chargers on the streets and in parking garages like parking meters. If you live in an apartment or condo without an attached garage, how the hell do you charge your car? That has got to be a non starter for a bunch of people that a small electric car would be otherwise perfect for.

I would have a Fiat 500e, i3 or some such small electric car for commuting around, but some of my clients are too far away.

 

[pronstar]

Which also brings in the Charging Stations. Rapid charging is key to winning the Electric Car race. 80% Charge in 40 mins = 220 mile range in S90... Thats solves most peoples transportation problems, especially when those charging stations are near a coffee shop, mall, shopping etc. Thats the biggest weakness to TSLA competition is a network of Rapid Chargers. These are the reasons why I have never shorted TSLA.

The key thing I havent figured out yet. Why havent the major gas stations put in Rapid Chargers. The biggest profit at a gas station is the slurpees, hot dogs, beer, cokes, chips ice.. Not gas. So add Rapid Chargers... Why havent they embraced this???? To much money not to.

Consider where the charging stations need to be...it’s not like a gas car.

Most folks do the same drive day in and day out, and visit the same gas stations along their daily commute.

An EV with a 300 mile range way different.

Nearly everyone drives within a 150 mile radius daily, so the vast majority of charging happens in peoples garages at night.

A significant number of charging stations at urban gas stations really aren’t needed to service the locally owned fleet. Sure, there are out of town visitors and the like, but that’s a very small percentage of owners, and they don’t require a lot of infrastructure due to the small numbers.

The greatest need for charging stations is between population centers, where the electric range gets stretched.

That gets me to the Level 2 chargers we currently see at shopping centers and the like. They’re servicing yesterday’s EVs, and really are just virtue signaling IMHO. They charge so slowly, who in their right mind is shopping at Walgreens for 4 hours? And plugging-in for a quick 15 minute stop is only giving I’ve you a mile or two in range, which is a waste of time.


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[Sleek-Jet]

They are making batteries for houses, not cars Until you can buy an all electric normal sized car for $30K that can go 300 miles, electric cars are not going to have significant market share.

Gas stations have not embraced rapid charging because of the cost of infrastructure to bring that kind of electrical power to the property. How many stations are they going to have? 1? 2? They are not going to have 10, at least not anytime soon. The charging station will not be filled all the time, and if more than a couple people want to charge, you are turning customers away.

They are better off installing a car wash with that space or another set of gas pumps.

Even at 40 minutes, there are only certain places where people would want to "rapid" charge. The fast chargers are more conducive to be located at shopping centers, restaurants, and malls, not gas stations. Few people want to sit in their car in a gas station parking lot in their $70-$130K Tesla for 40 minutes.

Buy a Chevy Bolt. Everyone I've talked to loves them, really a good car by all accounts.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Consider where the charging stations need to be...it’s not like a gas car.

Most folks do the same drive day in and day out, and visit the same gas stations along their daily commute.

An EV with a 300 mile range way different.

Nearly everyone drives within a 150 mile radius daily, so the vast majority of charging happens in peoples garages at night.

A significant number of charging stations at urban gas stations really aren’t needed to service the locally owned fleet. Sure, there are out of town visitors and the like, but that’s a very small percentage of owners, and they don’t require a lot of infrastructure due to the small numbers.

The greatest need for charging stations is between population centers, where the electric range gets stretched.

That gets me to the Level 2 chargers we currently see at shopping centers and the like. They’re servicing yesterday’s EVs, and really are just virtue signaling IMHO. They charge so slowly, who in their right mind is shopping at Walgreens for 4 hours? And plugging-in for a quick 15 minute stop is only giving I’ve you a mile or two in range, which is a waste of time.


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If ranges don't increase, the idea of having quick swap battery stations is intriguing, but that functionality would probably have to be engineered in future cars to make the swap a 10-20 minute deal.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Buy a Chevy Bolt. Everyone I've talked to loves them, really a good car by all accounts.

Thought about that, but it did not pencil out. I bought a new Toyota Yaris sedan at the end of last year for just over $16K OTD. The $20k I saved will buy a ton of fuel, and it gets 36MPG driving like I stole it anyway.

It costs me less than $45 in fuel to get to Havasu and back.

 

[sirbob]

I saw recently where Porsche has filed patent applications for tech that will leapfrog all these super charging stations. Those will need to be converted or scraped because the tech will skip a generation as soon as they get it up and running. (could be long time) The article seems to think they would have it in test mode in about 3 years and in 5 they would be out full scale in all Porsche EVs. Recharges in mins, not 30 or "while you have lunch" but more like 5.

They might not even use the same battery tech??? All that build out of the battery plant may need to be updated in 5-10 years!

Tech moves fast.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I saw recently where Porsche has filed patent applications for tech that will leapfrog all these super charging stations. Those willed to be converted or scraped because the tech will skip a generation as session as they get it up and running. (could be long time) The article seems to think they would have it in test mode in a bout 3 years and in 5 they would be out full scale in all Porsche EVs. Recharges in mins, not 30 or "while you have lunch" but more like 5.

They might not even use the same battery tech??? All that build out of the battery plant may need to be updated in 5-10 years!

Tech moves fast.

But are the batteries air cooled???

 

[thmterry]

In our town of 1000 people we have a 4 bay Tesla charging station at the local country store

 

[pronstar]

I saw recently where Porsche has filed patent applications for tech that will leapfrog all these super charging stations. Those will need to be converted or scraped because the tech will skip a generation as soon as they get it up and running. (could be long time) The article seems to think they would have it in test mode in about 3 years and in 5 they would be out full scale in all Porsche EVs. Recharges in mins, not 30 or "while you have lunch" but more like 5.

They might not even use the same battery tech??? All that build out of the battery plant may need to be updated in 5-10 years!

Tech moves fast.

The electric infrastructure won’t be easy...can you imagine the size of the cable that can deliver 100 kWh of energy in 5 minutes?


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[hallett21]

The electric infrastructure won’t be easy...can you imagine the size of the cable that can deliver 100 kWh of energy in 5 minutes?


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Depends.....

You giving the average joe a 480 plug lol?


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[Sleek-Jet]

The electric infrastructure won’t be easy...can you imagine the size of the cable that can deliver 100 kWh of energy in 5 minutes?


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Cable(s)... Plural. You average trophy wife in stilletos won't be able to handle it.

The fault.current alone at that service size is enough to cook a Porsche driver.

My guess is there will be some sort of docking system.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

The electric infrastructure won’t be easy...can you imagine the size of the cable that can deliver 100 kWh of energy in 5 minutes?


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But but but about wireless charging?? My phone can charge 50% in 10 mins wirelessly!

 

[grumpy88]

Sounds like the drought to me . I am supposed to turn off my sprinklers because water is scares . I still hear commercials to turn my thermostat up to 78 and only do laundry at night . Meanwhile the world should embrace electric car concept and plug in everyday and night ? I can't run my a.c. but you can charge your car ? FUCK OFF !!

 

[pronstar]

Sounds like the drought to me . I am supposed to turn off my sprinklers because water is scares . I still hear commercials to turn my thermostat up to 78 and only do laundry at night . Meanwhile the world should embrace electric car concept and plug in everyday and night ? I can't run my a.c. but you can charge your car ? FUCK OFF !!

The model they’ve sold lawmakers has people charging at night when there’s excess capacity.

So basically, they’ll increase PM demand to the point where electricity will be massively expensive no matter when you use it.


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[LargeOrangeFont]

The model they’ve sold lawmakers has people charging at night when there’s excess capacity.

So basically, they’ll increase PM demand to the point where electricity will be massively expensive no matter when you use it.


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Correct. In 15 years it will cost as much to charge a car as it does to fill it up with gas.

 

[TX Foilhead]

Wheres that green energy source thats avalible in the middle of the night?

 

[Pesky Varmint]

The electric infrastructure won’t be easy...can you imagine the size of the cable that can deliver 100 kWh of energy in 5 minutes?


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Only you good electrical guys understand the math behind this. Compress 100 kWh into 5 minutes and you are talking 1.2 megawatt feed. Watts being V*A do the math. The numbers are huge either way. And the world is going to have thousands of these stations running simultaneously (oh, I forgot, we have plenty of petroleum to generate tons of electricity).

 

[Xring01]

Wheres that green energy source thats avalible in the middle of the night?

Hydro, Geo thermal, elevated pump storage, might i say Nuke...
Next big thing will be batterys

 

[Xring01]

Oh yes let's take the Tesla marketing jargon as truth.

They make batteries there, period. The batteries are used for cars, houses, etc. There is probably legitimate money to be made making batteries for other manufacturers and purposes. Tesla is not making enough cars alone to keep that factory operational, which was the point of my comment above.

If Tesla were making 500,000 cars per year by 2018, this thread would not exist. They just had their most productive quarter in company history last quarter and made just under 35,000 cars. If they have 3 more quarters like that, they will be at about 28% of their marketing projections you quoted above. So the reality is, they are not making that many cars, and the factory is not built out fully and/or is underutilized based on Tesla's production alone.

To put all that into perspective, Ford sells on average just under 2500 F series trucks PER DAY in America.

Ok
First its not fully built yet... its being built in stages..will ramp up to max capacity
As i mentioned, they plan to be the electric car battery of choice, that many manufacturers can use...
thats why the plan is to build higher volume of batterys than they can consume..themselves...

I am a bigger believer in the gigafactory business model over the tesla car business model.. not a fan of either, and have never owned tsla stock or tsla vehicles... pro and cons...

i will not buy tesla stocks for the reasons i outlined earlier...

I was pointing out the fact the giga factory build car batterys.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Ok
First its not fully built yet... its being built in stages..will ramp up to max capacity
As i mentioned, they plan to be the electric car battery of choice, that many manufacturers can use...
thats why the plan is to build higher volume of batterys than they can consume..themselves...

I am a bigger believer in the gigafactory business model over the tesla car business model.. not a fan of either, and have never owned tsla stock or tsla vehicles... pro and cons...

i will not buy tesla stocks for the reasons i outlined earlier...

I was pointing out the fact the giga factory build car batterys.

I am in violent agreement with you, and all I am saying is that everything Tesla says publically about products, timelines, costs and the company to date has been inaccurate.

Maybe the plan is to make a battery company and just have the cars from the same company be a loss.. who knows.

 

[WhatExit?]

And then there's this...

Consumer Reports Says It Found 'Big Flaws' With The Tesla Model 3 And Won't Recommend It

Kristen Lee
Yesterday 2:01pm

Photo: Justin Westbrook (Jalopnik)
The Tesla Model 3 has been billed as Tesla’s mass-market, affordable electric sedan, but with a bunch of fancy options, the car can easily get into the high $70,000-range. Even then, Consumer Reports found some issues with it that keep it from earning a Consumer Reports recommendation. However, Tesla claims that its braking figures aren’t as bad as the famous publication says.

In its report, the outlet found “flaws—big flaws” in the Model 3's braking distance, controls and ride quality.

In CR’s testing, Model 3's braking distance from 60 mph was 152 feet, a distance that the outlet claimed is “far worse than any contemporary car [it has] tested” and was nearly seven feet longer than the braking distance than that of a Ford F-150.

To conduct the braking test, testers make sure a car’s brake pads and tires are up to par, drive the car up to 60 mph and slam on the brakes to record the distance. They do this multiple times and, of course, they let the brakes cool between tests.

CR found some inconsistencies that it wasn’t able to rectify during the Model 3's braking test. It wrote:

In our testing of the Model 3, the first stop we recorded was significantly shorter (around 130 feet, similar to Tesla’s findings), but that distance was not repeated, even after we let the brakes cool overnight.

To make sure that this wasn’t just an issue stemming from a single test car, the testers got a second Model 3 and found nearly identical results:

In our tests of both Model 3 samples, the stopping distances were much longer than the stopping distances we recorded on other Teslas and other cars in this class.

In response to CR’s findings, Tesla issued a statement to Jalopnik:

“Tesla’s own testing has found braking distances with an average of 133 feet when conducting the 60-0 mph stops using the 18” Michelin all season tire and as low as 126 feet with all tires currently available. Stopping distance results are affected by variables such as road surface, weather conditions, tire temperature, brake conditioning, outside temperature, and past driving behavior that may have affected the brake system. Unlike other vehicles, Tesla is uniquely positioned to address more corner cases over time through over-the-air software updates, and it continually does so to improve factors such as stopping distance.”

Additionally, CR’s testers found issues with the Model 3's big center touch screen. Because most of the car’s controls can be accessed through this screen, the interior of the car is pretty minimalist: very few buttons, dials and gauges on the inside surfaces.

When trying to perform tasks like messing with the AC and adjusting the mirrors, the testers had to use that touch screen alone. That’s too complex and distracting, CR argued, forcing drivers to take their eyes off the road to operate.

And finally, the “stiff ride, unsupportive rear seat and excessive wind noise at highway speeds” didn’t do the Model 3 any favors. The outlet argued that other competitors in the compact luxury sedan segment have a better ride quality and more comfortable rear seat.

The testers did find the Model 3 to be exciting to drive, at least. And the car managed to set a CR range record, going 350 miles on a single charge. This was the longest distance that CR ever tested with an electric car.

Despite that, though, Consumer Reports concluded that the Model’s problems outweighed its pros and couldn’t give it a recommendation, kind of an unexpected outcome for such a hugely important (particularly for Tesla) and extremely hyped vehicle. Tesla has been working like mad to even build Model 3s on time. You don’t want to put in all that effort for a car only to get not recommended by CR.

You can read the full story here and the full road test here.

 

[mjc]

If ranges don't increase, the idea of having quick swap battery stations is intriguing, but that functionality would probably have to be engineered in future cars to make the swap a 10-20 minute deal.

Tesla was or is supposed to have charging places that will drop the battery pack out and swap it in minutes

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Tesla was or is supposed to have charging places that will drop the battery pack out and swap it in minutes

Yea, sure they were.

The infrastructure to support that makes no sense at the level of output they are currently at.

 

[rivrrts429]

Yea, sure they were.

The infrastructure to support that makes no sense at the level of output they are currently at.

It’s supposed to be a battery swap in a time frame equal to filling an average fuel tank.

I agree that the infrastructure doesn’t support their output but it is indicative of the future of electric vehicles. I imagine these battery swap stations will begin popping up sooner rather than later.

 

[sirbob]

The electric infrastructure won’t be easy...can you imagine the size of the cable that can deliver 100 kWh of energy in 5 minutes?
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Depends.....
You giving the average joe a 480 plug lol?
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Cable(s)... Plural. You average trophy wife in stilletos won't be able to handle it.
The fault.current alone at that service size is enough to cook a Porsche driver.
My guess is there will be some sort of docking system.

But but but about wireless charging?? My phone can charge 50% in 10 mins wirelessly!

The new Porsche EV will be charged by an 800V charger - that is where they will open ...

From there they plan to be totally wireless with what they have in mind.

Another big part of their pitch is the power won't fade like it does in"ludicrous mode" They are trying to make it linear no matter how many times you floor it off the stop light. Unlike the current EV hot shoe that fades more each time you do it if it hasn't been recharged.

 

[Sleek-Jet]

That is 1500 amps DC.

I would like to order up a couple dozen for my system, we could use the load.

Sounds like Porsche is going to use the same technology that Tresla is for the trucks. Unless they have found a way to rewire the universe.

 

[squeezer]

I think we are two technology generations away from a 100% user scalable electric car. Don’t pretend to know what that will even look like but it will happen...

Take a look at existing technology points. When you have to move something in business model where pennies per ton matter the drivetrain of choice is usually diesel/electric. (100% of the torque at zero RPM is a pretty amazing feature). Locomotives, Mine Haul trucks, ships, etc. Now with that in mind electricity is the only form of energy that can be produced and distributed in a 100% carbon neutral manner. (I know this is not actually true but many consumers don’t so let’s hold the line for the time being). So we have large scale economic factors and large scale consumer appeal... That will drive the demand for a long time to come...

Looping back around to right now. Solar is becoming cost competitive with hydrocarbon based power generation in most countries outside of the USA. The pricing will continue to come down on conventional silicon wafer based panels and there is technology on the horizon that will make that obsolete. ( Paint on PV arrays for instance). Taken together this means we will not be facing an energy generation problem but a distribution and storage problem. The storage problem should be tackled first as it influences what the distribution should look like...

Imagine a system that integrates your home/car storage/generation.

Your residence has a PV array that feeds into a storage array. (Could do this with current tech fairly easy... Gets easier with future tech) Your car is electric with an onboard range extender. ( Look at the i3Rex or i8 for examples). The car is not a hybrid in conventional sense as there is no connection between the combustion engine and the wheels. Under normal conditions you generate enough electricity to function off the grid and charge the car. Extremes in weather will require additional energy sources.

The above scenario is available now but is not cost or space efficient.

If you were to refine the model a bit more your car battery system becomes the center of the tech. It is ( Much) larger than it needs to be for commuting, gets charged during the day... Becomes the power source for your home at night.

Obviously there is no single scenario that suits everyone but there are many ways of going about this that are different that what w are doing now.

 

[Flying_Lavey]

If ranges don't increase, the idea of having quick swap battery stations is intriguing, but that functionality would probably have to be engineered in future cars to make the swap a 10-20 minute deal.

]

Tesla was or is supposed to have charging places that will drop the battery pack out and swap it in minutes

Yea, sure they were.

The infrastructure to support that makes no sense at the level of output they are currently at.

The Tesla battery packs in the model S and X are both designed with quick disconnects and few fasteners to drop the battery quickly. From what I have read, a slightly modified Jiffy lube could handle the actual battery swap. As far as charging the batteries and if or when Tesla would be able to accomplish this, god only knows. But they are designed for such an operation.

That is 1500 amps DC.

I would like to order up a couple dozen for my system, we could use the load.

Sounds like Porsche is going to use the same technology that Tresla is for the trucks. Unless they have found a way to rewire the universe.

Jacketed lines with coolant running through them would GREATLY improve charging speeds and capability. As far as weight of the connector or what not, there are plenty of rail type systems to aid with that.

But are the batteries air cooled??? [/QUOTE

I don't think there is a single EV with an air cooled battery anymore.

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[Paul65k]

The electric infrastructure won’t be easy...can you imagine the size of the cable that can deliver 100 kWh of energy in 5 minutes?


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No problem if they install a "Flux Capacitor"

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

]

The Tesla battery packs in the model S and X are both designed with quick disconnects and few fasteners to drop the battery quickly. From what I have read, a slightly modified Jiffy lube could handle the actual battery swap. As far as charging the batteries and if or when Tesla would be able to accomplish this, god only knows. But they are designed for such an operation.
...
I don't think there is a single EV with an air cooled battery anymore.

Correct on the quick change battery, but again, I don't see "Jiffy Battery" as profitable until there are more EVs on the road. If one ever comes out, you will see it in Barstow or somewhere between 2 city centers first. Maybe if they did it as a loaner service, to get you to Vegas for instance, and swapped your battery back in on the trip home. The batteries are not like propane tanks, they do wear out, and someone would be pissed if they swapped in a battery and started getting 20% less range. Or you swap your bad battery at a station for a better one. That turns into some battery testing and prorating procedure.

If one ever comes out, you will see it in Barstow or somewhere between 2 city centers first.


You missed the air cooled Porsche joke there.

 

[spectras only]

Elon Musk admitted yesterday, there's a problem with the Model 3's braking system. He said it only takes a firmware upgrade to fix it,lol. Fuck that, old fashion hydraulics worked great, I don't need no stinking computers with glitches to operate my brakes.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

It’s supposed to be a battery swap in a time frame equal to filling an average fuel tank.

I agree that the infrastructure doesn’t support their output but it is indicative of the future of electric vehicles. I imagine these battery swap stations will begin popping up sooner rather than later.

I agree it is coming. Probably as an add on or 3rd party subscription service. Something like this is needed to make an EV your only car.

 

[Sleek-Jet]

]




Jacketed lines with coolant running through them would GREATLY improve charging speeds and capability. As far as weight of the connector or what not, there are plenty of rail type systems to aid with that.

I've got a couple dozen or so services right now running those kinds of amps, nothing more than aluminum wire.

Of course those are bolted cables that never move. And to work on them you have to dress up like the Michelin man.

But the current and load size is nothing out of the ordinary.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

The new Porsche EV will be charged by an 800V charger - that is where they will open ...

From there they plan to be totally wireless with what they have in mind.

Another big part of their pitch is the power won't fade like it does in"ludicrous mode" They retrying to make it linear no matter how many times you floor it off the stop light. Unlike the current EV hot shoe that fades more each time you do it if it hasn't been recharged.

Either that will be some leap of tech, or they will just limit the voltage output of the battery to make the output linear throughout the discharge.

 

[spectras only]

https://www.dailydot.com/debug/china-electric-highway/

 

[lbhsbz]

https://www.dailydot.com/debug/china-electric-highway/

"transparent concrete"

noted.

 

[SBMech]

"transparent concrete"

noted.

OHHHH are we going to see "Transparent Aluminum" soon?!?!

Holy Fuck....we are....!

Now, it's happened again: "Transparent aluminum," a technology first suggested in the film Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home, has been developed for real.

As reported via a video posted to Discovery, the revolutionary ceramic alloy (officially called Aluminum Oxynitride or "ALON") is created by fusing aluminum, oxygen and nitrogen in precise measures; and was first observed by researchers at Oxford University by using a FLASH laser to remove electrons from aluminum atoms without altering their overall crystalline structure. The result was a material that retained the properties of aluminum but was also effectively transparent.

The applications for such a technology would be near limitless: The material serves the same function as extra-strength or bullet-proof glass, but is much stronger while also requiring significantly less overall mass-density. Providing windows for deep-space and undersea vehicles are among the top planned uses, but lenses for high-impact cameras and other manners of security glass are also a sought-after possibility. However, methods will first need to be developed to manufacture ALON at a reasonable expense, as current costs are quite high.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

I think we are two technology generations away from a 100% user scalable electric car. Don’t pretend to know what that will even look like but it will happen...

Take a look at existing technology points. When you have to move something in business model where pennies per ton matter the drivetrain of choice is usually diesel/electric. (100% of the torque at zero RPM is a pretty amazing feature). Locomotives, Mine Haul trucks, ships, etc. Now with that in mind electricity is the only form of energy that can be produced and distributed in a 100% carbon neutral manner. (I know this is not actually true but many consumers don’t so let’s hold the line for the time being). So we have large scale economic factors and large scale consumer appeal... That will drive the demand for a long time to come...

Looping back around to right now. Solar is becoming cost competitive with hydrocarbon based power generation in most countries outside of the USA. The pricing will continue to come down on conventional silicon wafer based panels and there is technology on the horizon that will make that obsolete. ( Paint on PV arrays for instance). Taken together this means we will not be facing an energy generation problem but a distribution and storage problem. The storage problem should be tackled first as it influences what the distribution should look like...

Imagine a system that integrates your home/car storage/generation.

Your residence has a PV array that feeds into a storage array. (Could do this with current tech fairly easy... Gets easier with future tech) Your car is electric with an onboard range extender. ( Look at the i3Rex or i8 for examples). The car is not a hybrid in conventional sense as there is no connection between the combustion engine and the wheels. Under normal conditions you generate enough electricity to function off the grid and charge the car. Extremes in weather will require additional energy sources.

The above scenario is available now but is not cost or space efficient.

If you were to refine the model a bit more your car battery system becomes the center of the tech. It is ( Much) larger than it needs to be for commuting, gets charged during the day... Becomes the power source for your home at night.

Obviously there is no single scenario that suits everyone but there are many ways of going about this that are different that what w are doing now.

That was a hell of a rabbit hole you just sent me down. The new tech looks promising. Upping efficiency and decreasing cost are paramount to making solar viable and the new tech, substrates and battery technologies that are on the horizon are exciting. Neat article: https://www.theguardian.com/sustain...-energy-thin-film-technology-perovskite-cells

 

[DrunkenSailor]

OHHHH are we going to see "Clear Aluminum" soon?!?!

 

[sirbob]

Either that will be some leap of tech, or they will just limit the voltage output of the battery to make the output linear throughout the discharge.

Its all greek to me - I have no idea how electricity works!

Its magic!

 

[wet hull]

Question. I have been looking at used Tesla and possibly new due to the rebate. Lately I have seen people putting their pre ordered car up for sale. They typically are right around the original sticker price. Is this now considered used? Did they get the tax rebate and I will not. They never had possession of the car yet. Can I still get a rebate even if its used? I am a diesel guy, new world to me

 

[pronstar]

Question. I have been looking at used Tesla and possibly new due to the rebate. Lately I have seen people putting their pre ordered car up for sale. They typically are right around the original sticker price. Is this now considered used? Did they get the tax rebate and I will not. They never had possession of the car yet. Can I still get a rebate even if its used? I am a diesel guy, new world to me

It’s a brand new car, never titled. You’re buying their place in line.
All subsidies happen for the registered owner, which would be you.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

[rrrr]

In another example of genius by Elon Musk, yesterday he announced new Model 3 packaging that included models with four wheel drive and dual motors (one for performance, the other for cruising). With this announcement Tesla conceded they will not be building any of the $35,000 base models. Every car will have some combination of upgrades, with costs up to $80,000. The FTC will be examining their sales claims unless they drop the $35,000 language.

This is plain stupid. How many people can afford a $60,000-$80,000 small car that can only travel around 200 miles without a time consuming charge? Yeah, I know they claim a greater range. But you would probably want to use the heater, air conditioner, and headlights while driving, wouldn't you?

Does Tesla not understand the issue of market classes? While a million people might buy a $60K version, five million can afford a less expensive model. They have locked themselves into a limited market segment. What they need to build is a car that costs $27-$30K all in.

After several years of lackluster sales, Henry Ford dropped the price of the Model T by almost 50%. The sales numbers doubled, then doubled again. This logic seems to be lost on the 'genius'.

 

[spectra3279]

Why has nobody brought up the fact that these quick chargers are gonna pull a massive amount from the grid. So how many more brown outs are there gonna be. How much more are they gonna raise the electrical rates?

Sent from my SM-G900T using Tapatalk

 

[pronstar]

In another example of genius by Elon Musk, yesterday he announced new Model 3 packaging that included models with four wheel drive and dual motors (one for performance, the other for cruising). With this announcement Tesla conceded they will not be building any of the $35,000 base models. Every car will have some combination of upgrades, with costs up to $80,000. The FTC will be examining their sales claims unless they drop the $35,000 language.

This is plain stupid. How many people can afford a $60,000-$80,000 small car that can only travel around 200 miles without a time consuming charge? Yeah, I know they claim a greater range. But you would probably want to use the heater, air conditioner, and headlights while driving, wouldn't you?

Does Tesla not understand the issue of market classes? While a million people might buy a $60K version, five million can afford a less expensive model. They have locked themselves into a limited market segment. What they need to build is a car that costs $27-$30K all in.

After several years of lackluster sales, Henry Ford dropped the price of the Model T by almost 50%. The sales numbers doubled, then doubled again. This logic seems to be lost on the 'genius'.

If your capacity to build widgets is limited, then you’re only gonna build the most profitable widgets until supply constraints are solved.

Glad to hear the FTC is getting involved. Having spent my career in car advertising, I can tell you that there’s hell to pay if you advertise a low price, but that model isn’t commonly available to consumers.

A few years ago, the FTC setup a specific division just to monitor car ads from a national level, all the way down to local dealers.

It seems Musk’s expertise doesn’t extend to being a national advertiser.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

[KENDOG689]

Why has nobody brought up the fact that these quick chargers are gonna pull a massive amount from the grid. So how many more brown outs are there gonna be. How much more are they gonna raise the electrical Why think about that,they are just selling cars to people that don't think about that.