Tesla Continues to collapse.

[Dan Lorenze]

I have a model 3 and love it. I got $!0k off in rebates so it took me to $48k. I dont pay for plugging it in because I get to charge at work for free too. It looks like you can get some model S's used for a decent price. Best part about owning 1 is never going to the gas station again

Very cool Ryan, I went up to the Tesla factor with Rich Carter spotondl (RDP member) and we shot the release of the Model 3. I got to walk around, the place is spotless. Looks like you're busy, but haven't seen you in a while.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Tesla blew its overseas deliveries - poor execution more red tape better not let that keep up or they won't survive.

Musk skated the SEC thing - again. Even though he was basically right - he should have STFU.

TSLA still ahead of Ford, however - (which is unbelievable in itself)

Ford is having their own emissions problem - probably won't be as bad as Chryslers, but I wonder what will happen to their existing diesel trucks when the patch goes in? This should be another thread. Well see if someone knew and tried to hide it or if it was just a fuck up - but this could be bad news for Ford diesel owners if a software retune emasculates the truck like VW's patch did.

Tesla killers - had a big launch and outsold the hugely expensive s&X - but turned out to be a laughing stock, and the first owners are really disappointed. Audi was WAY short on the promised range by a lot and are making tons of excuses talking about battery preservation etc. and spinning a bunch of stories.
Wait for their charging network to disappoint next.

look at their range for battery pack size.

They were way behind the 10-year old Teslas - much less the last induction motor upgrade.


Musk better get the SUV and truck up and going, and should probably go find some more money.

View attachment 749463

I know 5 customers with Model 3s, all get 1/3 less than promised range. Still better than Audi, but way less than promised.

 

[boataholic]

I know 5 customers with Model 3s, all get 1/3 less than promised range.

I have a model S and it's just like any other vehicle. If you put your foot in the pedal or drive hills it changes the range. When I want to maximize my range I use the kwh gauge to ensure I am getting the rated miles.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I have a model S and it's just like any other vehicle. If you put your foot in the pedal or drive hills it changes the range. When I want to maximize my range I use the kwh gauge to ensure I am getting the rated miles.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Agreed. For whatever reason I don’t think everyone quite understands that.

 

[boataholic]

Agreed. For whatever reason I don’t think everyone quite understands that.

Trust me for the first 6 months... I was launching mine at every light. 0-60 in 3.8 seconds, was a kid in a candy store!!!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

 

[Uncle Dave]

Its nearly impossible to deny yourself the rush of footing an electric.

Drive it on a cruise like grandma and they'll return the favor.

When you think about it it kind of makes sense

Audi - Steel frame/ aluminum panels- not sure about the jag.
S&X - all aluminum
Electronic design - Silicon valley/ vs Germany India
Tech level - Space/ Automotive


UD

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Its nearly impossible to deny yourself the rush of footing an electric.

Drive it on a cruise like grandma and they'll return the favor.

When you think about it it kind of makes sense

Audi - Steel frame/ aluminum panels- not sure about the jag.
S&X - all aluminum
Electronic design - Silicon valley/ vs Germany India
Tech level - Space/ Automotive


UD

I don’t think I’d take it that far UD.

The Tesla is not by any means aerospace or space shuttle tech. It is more of a smartphone/app tech.

It is a software defined (Tesla) vs hardware defined design (traditional automotive brands) strategy. Both put hardware into a vehicle. Tesla has integrated constant software improvements into its branding and product strategy. They run that part of the business like a software company - constantly patching and improving code.

Traditional automakers bring new features out every year or upon model changes. They hide software improvements in the form of TSBs. Tesla was ingenious in spinning improvements to the car in this way. Everyone went bananas over it because it made their car like their iPad.

Tesla sort of gets around having a 7+ year old model S because of this as well. Clearly they can’t afford to keep up with the refresh cycles of the big boys.

 

[Uncle Dave]

I don’t think I’d take it that far UD.

The Tesla is not by any means aerospace or space shuttle tech. It is more of a smartphone/app tech.

It is a software defined (Tesla) vs hardware defined design (traditional automotive brands) strategy. Both put hardware into a vehicle. Tesla has integrated constant software improvements into its branding and product strategy. They run that part of the business like a software company - constantly patching and improving code.

Traditional automakers bring new features out every year or upon model changes. They hide software improvements in the form of TSBs. Tesla was ingenious in spinning improvements to the car in this way. Everyone went bananas over it because it made their car like their iPad.

Tesla sort of gets around having a 7+ year old model S because of this as well. Clearly they can’t afford to keep up with the refresh cycles of the big boys.

Sandy Munro made this observation - he likened the Model 3 control and electronics systems to an F35

Agreed they can not keep up with the refresh cycles - they had to build in a superior car from the get to accommodate evolution.

How long was the S the only all aluminum car in the US? Is it still?

UD

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Sandy Munro made this observation - he likened the Model 3 control and electronics systems to an F35

Agreed they can not keep up with the refresh cycles - they had to build in a superior car from the get to accommodate evolution.

How long was the S the only all aluminum car in the US? Is it still?

UD

I sold the F35 team the data recording and analysis ground system gear. So I know a bit about the flight system, and Tesla is not my account but we sell to them, my coworker handles their account, so I know a bit about their workflows as well.

The F35 is not a Model 3 with wings and rockets.

However, the data gathering, analysis, machine learning, and update workflows are similar. They are also the same high level methodology as what is used on an iPhone.

I get his point, but I think the F35 was chosen for dramatic effect. It was better he chose the F35 than the 737 Max lol.

I think some Jags are all aluminum construction? There are a few today I’m sure.

 

[Flynryan]

Very cool Ryan, I went up to the Tesla factor with Rich Carter spotondl (RDP member) and we shot the release of the Model 3. I got to walk around, the place is spotless. Looks like you're busy, but haven't seen you in a while.

That would have been cool Dan, I wish I could have done it with you guys. Im on swat and waiting to hear about season 3. Keeping fingers crossed because I really like it there. Hope you are doing well

 

[Uncle Dave]

I sold the F35 team the data recording and analysis ground system gear. So I know a bit about the flight system, and Tesla is not my account but we sell to them, my coworker handles their account, so I know a bit about their workflows as well.

The F35 is not a Model 3 with wings and rockets.

However, the data gathering, analysis, machine learning, and update workflows are similar. They are also the same high level methodology as what is used on an iPhone.

I get his point, but I think the F35 was chosen for dramatic effect. It was better he chose the F35 than the 737 Max lol.

I think some Jags are all aluminum construction? There are a few today I’m sure.

Sandy claims to have worked on that project. Pretty high authority.

UD

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Sandy claims to have worked on that project. Pretty high authority.

UD

Fair enough, and I don’t necessarily disagree. The data gathering, analysis and processing workflows and requirements are certainly similar.

 

[regor]

"A Distressed Credit And Restructuring Story": Morgan Stanley Warns Tesla Is Facing Bankruptcy

 

[RitcheyRch]

Guess hoping by lowering the prices of the S and X model will help with sales.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/21/tesla-lowers-prices-on-models-s-and-x-amid-stock-slump.html

 

[Uncle Dave]

Sub 200 rough month.

UD

 

[highvoltagehands]

Hey! Where'd everyone go? We're not done here….
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ries-record-as-u-s-buyers-race-for-tax-credit

 

[sirbob]

Not a lot of wall street folks changing their positions right now - I don't think they expect them to meet yearly guidance even though they shipped more than 90k cars this qtr.

I continue to wonder if they will fit better in the Lincoln or Cadillac portfolio - or possibly split it up. The Lincoln model S and the Ford model 3 ???

 

[HCP3]

 

[Uncle Dave]

I think we just witnessed the first quarter where Elon STFU and didn't get into any real trouble.

Telsa stock bounces all over the place all the time.

They exited the quarter with 5Billion in cash.

They currently have the #10 selling passenger car in the US- and the only auto with triple digit growth mtm and yty

The model 3 came within 10K cars of outselling ALL of BMWs autos combined in the US year to date

UD

 

[rrrr]

I think we just witnessed the first quarter where Elon STFU and didn't get into any real trouble.

Telsa stock bounces all over the place all the time.

They exited the quarter with 5Billion in cash.

They currently have the #10 selling passenger car in the US- and the only auto with triple digit growth mtm and yty

The model 3 came within 10K cars of outselling ALL of BMWs autos combined in the US year to date

UD

View attachment 779515

The stock fell over 13% based on 2Q results, not because it's bouncing around. The company lost $408 million last quarter.

They raised over $2B in a debt offering earlier this year, so that's no surprise they have cash. If Tesla was stealing away BMW customers, your comparison might be valid. It's not. Besides that, you're comparing worldwide Tesla sales to BMW US sales.

 

[Uncle Dave]

Heres a snapshot of the stock - at the end of last month it was 179 now its 228. Down from 260 a day ago.

I'd consider this bouncing around - Telsa has always bounced around.

Herr präsident (sorry CEO) of BMW resigned last month. Why do you think that happened?

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/jul/5/bmw-ceo-to-step-down-in-wake-of-disappointing-earn/

You are incorrect on sales comparison.

I'm referring to the US only using goodbadcar as the data source you can go run the numbers yourself but I'll pop them up here.

BMW's entire line up of cars have moved 51K.
Teslas model 3 alone has moved 46K so the gap is about 5K cars.

NO BMW model has come close to the model 3 in the US this year.

Those steep double-digit declines on some models went somewhere.

Impossible !
Can't happen!
It will never happen! They'll be out of business!
They are losing money!

 

[pronstar]

Meanwhile...

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

[spectras only]

^^^
I'd buy the Taycan 5 times over any Tesla model. Don't see Porsche going bankrupt anytime soon.

 

[pronstar]

Tesla’s carmaking future will depend on how much the competition eroded their sales.

I do see a massive demand for their semi truck, should the company last long enough to see it into production.

Supposedly they’ve got quite a few multi-truck preorders.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

[Uncle Dave]

^^^
I'd buy the Taycan 5 times over any Tesla model. Don't see Porsche going bankrupt anytime soon.

You mean volkswagen AG isn't likely to go bankrupt. Prob not - they get too much subsidy from their government to go broke.

Porsche seemed to side step the dieselgate that VW and Audi guys are indicted or going to prison for fraud for.

They can theoretically pul off a great car. I hope its better the disappointing cousin the E-Tron the tesla killer that landed on the market with worse specs than the 2012 model S.

I like the idea of what it could be better, wether its a viable car on a trip anytime soon we'll see.

UD

 

[Uncle Dave]

Not surprised the peanut gallery was quiet as a mouse....

Q3 profitable.
Just shy of 100K units.
Stock up to about 300 again.
#9 selling passenger car in the US
Model 3 outsold all BMW passenger autos in the US
Elon kept this mouth shut.

all " impossible" outcomes according to many.


UD

 

[KingofBeers]

Im still overall bearish on the name. I just dont think they will survive. I dont trade it unless we have days like today, then I buy puts.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/24/tes...d-real-problems-with-its-earnings-report.html

And while I dont give much on Seekingalpha strong credibility, there are some solid points made in this article.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4298514-teslas-surprise-profit-conceals-deteriorating-fundamentals

 

[Singleton]

Not surprised the peanut gallery was quiet as a mouse....

Q3 profitable.
Just shy of 100K units.
Stock up to about 300 again.
#9 selling passenger car in the US
Model 3 outsold all BMW passenger autos in the US
Elon kept this mouth shut.

all " impossible" outcomes according to many.


UD

If Elon STF up and stays that way, the company has a future.
It was priced right for acquisition, but with the stock back up no one will buy them now.

Until China takes all the IP and starts building cars cheaper

 

[Uncle Dave]

Im still overall bearish on the name. I just dont think they will survive. I dont trade it unless we have days like today, then I buy puts.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/24/tes...d-real-problems-with-its-earnings-report.html

And while I dont give much on Seekingalpha strong credibility, there are some solid points made in this article.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4298514-teslas-surprise-profit-conceals-deteriorating-fundamentals

At the bottom of that article -

"Disclosure: I am/we are short TSLA."

UD

 

[KingofBeers]

At the bottom of that article -

"Disclosure: I am/we are short TSLA."

UD

So? Technically as of today so am I. You can be bearish, with a position, and still make a valid argument for your position. Are you a fan of the product, or are you a fan of their fundamentals? I am neither

 

[Uncle Dave]

So? Technically as of today so am I. You can be bearish, with a position, and still make a valid argument for your position. Are you a fan of the product, or are you a fan of their fundamentals? I am neither

Or you can be bearish from the get go but just keep at it time and time again like Engle has.

I'm a fan of them and happy that American tech is finally leading somewhere in the US Market-
After ceding the auto market to japan in the 80's its good to see us back in the top 10 lists.

 

[KingofBeers]

Or you can be bearish from the get go but just keep at it time and time again like Engle has.

I'm a fan of them and happy that American tech is finally leading somewhere in the US Market-
After ceding the auto market to japan in the 80's its good to see us back in the top 10 lists.

Its too bad that Musk is about to hand it all over to the Chinese with his new gigafactory over there. Making those cars in China is really the only way Tesla will survive.

Id be willing to bet you will see the numbers of cars being built in Fremont really start to drop when the Chinese start making them.

 

[Uncle Dave]

On that note it's too bad every manufacturer in America that opened in China has done the same.

Yeah if wed have just supported the endeavor vs pushed it public we could keep our tech - but wall street and shareholders all want only one thing - growth so off to china everyone goes.....

can't bitch about profit - then bitch about going to china.

Ill take that bet - The chinese cars will stay in china - too expensive to import - subject to tariffs.
If fremont drops it will be because the model y is late.


Not concerned with GM in Mexico building for the American market?

UD

 

[Uncle Dave]

Back earlier in this thread - the order cancellation boogeyman turned out to be bullshit

So did the connection between tax credits and model 3 sales - according to some sales would drop like a rock when the credits waned - also bullshit.

 

[KingofBeers]

On that note it's too bad every manufacturer in America that opened in China has done the same.

Yeah if wed have just supported the endeavor vs pushed it public we could keep our tech - but wall street and shareholders all want only one thing - growth so off to china everyone goes.....

can't bitch about profit - then bitch about going to china.

The chinese cars will stay in china - too expensive to import - subject to tariffs.

Not concerned with GM in Mexico building for the American market?

UD

If the Feds hadnt supported them in the first place there wouldnt be a Tesla. Musk took the 'green' fad to the bank during the last administration.

 

[Uncle Dave]

If the Feds hadnt supported them in the first place there wouldnt be a Tesla. Musk took the 'green' fad to the bank during the last administration.

No automaker would be here without the feds, tax breaks, subsidies and loans. - Especially GM.

You only seem concerned about tesla vs what the others are doing?

Why can GM gp bankrupt screw the investors the re- build in Mexico ?
Ford owes us billions

UD

 

[KingofBeers]

No automaker would be here without the feds, tax breaks, subsidies and loans. - Especially GM.

UD

That may be true. I dont support the Feds saving any poorly run business.

 

[KingofBeers]

That may be true. I dont support the Feds saving any poorly run business.

Just let the market work...not prop it up.

 

[Uncle Dave]

That may be true. I dont support the Feds saving any poorly run business.

Then where's your hate for GM and others that ran to mexico to avoid paying Americans a fair wage after we got them going with loans, subsidies, tax breaks then bailed them out when they made bad decision after bad decision and gave the market to the Japanese?

Without Tesla America would be sucking automotive hind tit worldwide - yet people bash them continuously.

UD

 

[KingofBeers]

Then where's your hate for GM and others that ran to mexico to avoid paying Americans a fair wage after we got them going with loans, subsidies, tax breaks then bailed them out when they made bad decision after bad decision and gave the market to the Japanese?

Without Tesla America would be sucking automotive hind tit worldwide - yet people bash them continuously.

UD

GM currently trades at ~$35/share
Ford trades at ~$8/share

Tesla trading at ~$300/is insane. At some point it will be where it belongs.

 

[KingofBeers]

Even if you could value Tesla even steven with GM in terms of outstanding shares it should be in the $180ish....not $300.

 

[Uncle Dave]

GM currently trades at ~$35/share
Ford trades at ~$8/share

Tesla trading at ~$300/is insane. At some point it will be where it belongs.

Im not sure I understand it either which is why I bailed out from 50-250.
When these questions come up institutional investors will say they believe it will be a trillion dollar company in 10-15 years.
When you look at how fast they ramped the 3 with the y coming and factories opening globally maybe the money guys in it large are onto something?

UD

 

[KingofBeers]

Im not sure I understand it either which is why I bailed out from 50-250.
When these questions come up institutional investors will say they believe it will be a trillion dollar company in 10-15 years.
When you look at how fast they ramped the 3 with the y coming and factories opening globally maybe the money guys in it large are onto something?

UD

Tesla institutional ownership isnt really that high at ~56ish%.
Insider ownership is a very small number @ .2% according to finviz. Im not digging through their fillings to see what the accurate numbers are.

What is not known, is what the institutional SHORT positions are. Those are not required to be disclosed by "insiders".

 

[rrrr]

Tesla making a profit for one quarter is like your uncle the drunk sobering up for a week. They have to make a $550 million dollar payout on Solar City convertible debt in two weeks. The factory in China won't reach 2Q promised output levels of 4,000 units per week until 4Q 2020, and by then the current collapse in Chinese auto sales (see link below) will worsen, and sales will be a fraction of current projections. Tesla will have to borrow more money from Chinese sources (currently at $750 million), effectively ceding control of the factory to the Chinese state.

Volkswagen's 3id lineup is going into production, and the price for the base model is less than $30,000 in the UK, including government subsidies. The base vehicle has a range of 143 miles, and optional models have a range of up to 342 miles and an equivalent 200 HP motor. It's not a microcar either, about the same size as the Golf, with plenty of storage space and interior room. It has an 8 year/100,000 mile battery warranty.

At the recent Frankfurt auto show, Volkswagen's CEO said the battery powered platform for the 3id is scalable for larger vehicles, and they have agreements with nine other auto manufacturers, including Ford, to share the technology. The coming tide of EVs from real automobile manufacturers will dwarf the puny 2019 360,000 vehicle output of Tesla. India's Tata Motors recently debuted an EV with a 120 mile range selling for $14,500.

Tesla's aging models and Musk's inability to focus will increase losses in the next 24 months. The plans to build the Model Y, pickup, and heavy truck production lines beginning next year will require issuing billions more in debt. With Europe teetering into recession, the reluctance of commitments for the IPO scene, and recent skepticism regarding profitless tech companies (Uber, Lyft, and WeWork for example), that debt will be costly.

VW's 3id is just the beginning. The 3Q numbers will quickly be forgotten.


https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/volks...gen-id3-electric-car-arrives-at-frankfurt?amp

https://amp.ft.com/content/ff5df696-addb-11e9-8030-530adfa879c2

 

[Uncle Dave]

We've been hearing about the "coming tide" for years now and it hasnt materialized.

VW hah....VW has said a lot of things - like the Etrons range would be 300 miles - 220 was closer.
Then they said the same thing about the taycan
Then they said the taycan would charge at a crazy rate (at all 18 chargers at the dealerships) and it cant surpass an el cheapo model 3.
VW will take years before any significant % of their fleet is EV based- but it won't matter because the germans will subsidize whatever they need.

Tesla will get the money it needs like it always does.

UD

 

[rrrr]

The EV market in Europe is changing drastically because of EU requirements, and the continental automakers have no choice but to build electrics. They will have to price them attractively, and they will sell.

VW isn't making a converted ICE Golf this time around, and Tesla can't come close to competing on price.

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/eu...cars-as-new-emission-targets-loom-11561139522

Tesla will never come close to being a trillion dollar company. That's ludicrous.

Analysts are musing that "peak auto" has already occurred. Tesla isn't going to take over the auto industry.

World-wide sales fell in 2018, are expected to drop again this year, and Moody’s Investors Service projects another decline in 2020.

Some forecasters think this is mostly a temporary result of a troubled global environment. But structural headwinds may be more important. Rising trade barriers and stricter emissions controls are making cars more costly just as many countries’ markets have become saturated and alternatives like ride-sharing have sprung up. In the U.S., car sales peaked in 2016; in the European Union, in 2000; and in Japan, in 1990. Emerging markets were supposed to pick up the slack, but they too show signs of plateauing: Sales in the last 12 months are down 12% from mid-2018 in China and 14% in India. “Peak car,” loosely defined as a world with all the cars it needs, may be approaching.

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/auto-sectors-struggles-threaten-global-growth-11571830251

 

[Uncle Dave]

The EV market in Europe is changing drastically because of EU requirements, and the continental automakers have no choice but to build electrics. They will have to price them attractively, and they will sell.

VW isn't making a converted ICE Golf this time around, and Tesla can't come close to competing on price.

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/eu...cars-as-new-emission-targets-loom-11561139522

Yes it is changing drastically in the EU. VW has it own challenges including spend billions making battery factories where tesl ahas already made that investment and they won't have to re invest much to tool the 3 line for the model Y which will likely sell fantastically.

The trucks will take new capital for sure unless they can somehow make the 3 line work - but I dont see that happening.

The continental strategy with EV and the euros has been to lose money on them because they could subsidize the loss with the rest of the line - that's going to get harder and harder as they convert more and more sales to Ev's so well see what one gets for the price - the cheapo model 3 is 39K - pretty close to that 35K car no one actually wanted. Well see what these cheap EV's do to the makers profitability.

The europeans need to get real with quoting the WLTP driving cycle mileage. They are making themselves look stupid when the tests come back with 2/3 the actual range claimed.
Those cars won't get the rated mileage even you drove them off the side of the matterhorn.

UD

 

[rrrr]

Yes it is changing drastically in the EU. VW has it own challenges including spend billions making battery factories where tesl ahas already made that investment.

UD

Tesla hasn't "made that investment". They don't own anything, having borrowed billions, which included mortgaging the plants, and lost billions more. Panasonic is making noises about ending their relationship with Tesla.

VW has spent $1.5 billion retooling the Zwickau factory, and it's ready to produce EVs in numbers that will exceed 90% of Tesla's production in three years. They can spend a few billion more without breaking a sweat, having committed $50 billion to the changeover to production of EVs.

 

[Uncle Dave]

Tesla hasn't "made that investment". They don't own anything, having borrowed billions, which included mortgaging the plants, and lost billions more. Panasonic is making noises about ending their relationship with Tesla.

VW has spent $1.5 billion retooling the Zwickau factory, and it's ready to produce EVs in numbers that will exceed 90% of Tesla's production in three years. They can spend a few billion more without breaking a sweat, having committed $50 billion to the changeover to production of EVs.

Tesla has a battery factory up and running and did make the investment - one can argue about the bill the gigafactory 1 is up and producing assembled packs. Zwickau hasn't made a single pack or EV car yet.
Vw has yet to hit a timeline, an efficiency spec, or show it can make any profit on an ev. Agreed - it can spend ton of dough
Well see what panasonic does vs what they rumble about.

Meanwhile the model 3 was the number 3 selling car in the UK in August.
Not bad for a company that was supposed to go out of business in 2012.
https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/tesla-model-3-was-uks-no-3-selling-car-august

UD

 

[Xtrmwakeboarder]

Hope Tesla keeps it up. I love our model 3, and am excited to see what they come up with next month with the truck reveal.