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For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

Gonefishin5555

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Inventory is still nowhere near pre-pandemic levels. Market distortions have not worked their way out of the system, and likely won’t for quite some time.
View attachment 1152801
So inventory is still historically low? What are we arguing about again?

I've have to lol at the Tucker Carlson comment and him being some kind of source for any kind of news. He is strictly political.
 

attitude

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Posted yesterday, ouch.

AF5B12F0-2A04-41E2-BA78-6FB2399D5AD3.png
 

pronstar

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The biggest driver for a significant RE market correction, is gonna be the stock market, methinks.

If the market tanks, and many believe the worst is yet to come, then the RE market will tank right along with it.
 

c_land

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Yeah all my deals that were offering were getting into multiple situations and losing out........🤣🤣

Activity definitely went up during that time for sure.
Some of the John burns builder survey comments are saying activity was up in August also. A lot of talk about slowing starts and low traffic. The most interesting was widespread comments on supply chains finally easing and cycle times improving on lower demand.


https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/homebuilder-comments-in-august-increased?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
 

nameisbond

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Canada raised rates again yesterday. We are already slowing down and now will slow even further.
 

c_land

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Rates are also back in 6% territory. This slammed the brakes in june for the market. not sure if it will take us another leg lower in terms of demand.

I can feel it in my world. We do a alot of contract plan check for Cities throughout Southern CA. The volume of that work has fallen off a cliff.


1662647623364.png
 

pronstar

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Canada raised rates again yesterday. We are already slowing down and now will slow even further.
Do you think China’s economic catastrophe is having more, or less, of an effect on your market compared to rate hikes?
 

Flatsix66

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Why is a 30 yr Jumbo 1% lower than a conforming 30 year loan? I thought it was always the other way around.
 

OldSchoolBoats

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Some of the John burns builder survey comments are saying activity was up in August also. A lot of talk about slowing starts and low traffic. The most interesting was widespread comments on supply chains finally easing and cycle times improving on lower demand.


https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/homebuilder-comments-in-august-increased?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
August sales in Riverside County were up 13% versus July and volume increased by $54 million too.
 

pronstar

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August sales in Riverside County were up 13% versus July and volume increased by $54 million too.

I think many folks consider the US housing market to be one giant market. Then they can make broad proclamations about what’s happening.

Instead, I believe it should be looked at as many small, regional markets.

Markets like DFW with positive population growth and already had supply issues pre-pandemic, are a lot different than Kenosha, Wisconsin for example.
 

nameisbond

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Do you think China’s economic catastrophe is having more, or less, of an effect on your market compared to rate hikes?

Yes, I think the Chinese are now selling. Seeing more listings in general around Vancouver. Prices are starting to slowly come down.
 

Boatymcboatface

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Meanwhile, in China, the dumpster fire continues…
Unfortunately, they’ll drag the world economy down with them.



View attachment 1153467
We’ll a hate to tell you this but my sisters cousins friend just listed her house and got full asking after 2 days on the market. Hold on to your hat until you come back with some credible sources like Dr Oz or someone who really knows the markets.
 

Englewood

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Strange, I never knew Dan or Tucker were financial experts and were more educated in economics than Forbes lol lol.. I think Tucker is the best out there in what he does and is my favorite TV political commentator , Dan is one of my favorites as well but I would not take financial advise from TV commentators that have zero experience in finance or investing.
Since you are the expert, how much will houses go down? I’m assuming you’ve owned a large portfolio previously?
 

attitude

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Ouch why? The lender is making a lot of $$ on that deal.

The homeowner left $100k on the table.
Buying a house and having it be valued almost a 100k less 16 years later - ouch 1

Having your house be foreclosed on - ouch 2

Leaving a 100k on the table - ouch 3
 

CarolynandBob

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Just made the trip from TN to FL. Obviously, we have been eating out. Every single restaurant has been pretty empty. From the Chick Fil a's to the MC'd's there wasn't a wait. Now we weren't in the most populated areas for those, but decent size towns.

We are in Jacksonville, FL at Mayo clinic for a procedure I needed. Staying in a pretty nice area. Went to Bonefish Grill (pretty good seafood place}. On Wednesday evening they had about 5-6 people in the bar and 8 tables in the restaurant filled. Didn't eat out on Thursday as I had to prep. Last night we hit the Friday's as it was pouring out and it was close. Friday night at 6:30 and they had 2 people in the bar and 10 tables with people. When we were done it was 8 ish and had 4 tables with people.

So I guess inflation is hitting people. As I said it is a pretty nice area.
 

OldSchoolBoats

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Why is a 30 yr Jumbo 1% lower than a conforming 30 year loan? I thought it was always the other way around.
Jumbo is lower because big banks can offer those and portfolio them. To get that rate, a bank like Chase would require you to move assets to them. Usually around $250k. If you got some dough in management at these big institutions, you can get silly rates that nobody else can touch.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Buying a house and having it be valued almost a 100k less 16 years later - ouch 1

Having your house be foreclosed on - ouch 2

Leaving a 100k on the table - ouch 3
I’m sure the house was perfectly taken care of, was full up upgraded, turn key and needed nothing and still worth less.
 

attitude

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I’m sure the house was perfectly taken care of, was full up upgraded, turn key and needed nothing and still worth less.
The house is close to original from the 70s, very similar condition to the house I live in now. I have newer floors and newer appliances but no reason someone couldn’t move into that house and be perfectly fine.

 

hallett21

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The house is close to original from the 70s, very similar condition to the house I live in now. I have newer floors and newer appliances but no reason someone couldn’t move into that house and be perfectly fine.

I’d consider that a full gut in todays market
 

RogerThat99

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A house I drive by a lot has been on the market for about 9 weeks. It has had 2 price reductions for a total of $75,000. At the original price, It would have sold in 1 day with a bidding war early this year.
 

DC-88

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Here's the peak of the current market in my town imho as of yesterday. 3rd cycle for me here living and working over more than 3 decades building, flip, develop, lot splits, custom and spec, mostly tear downs at the coast . I know the owner who redid this a few years ago , its an oldie built in the 40's on a tiny lot, through fare street, and whoever just sold it walked with close to 600k in just a few years. My guess would be it will be down 320-400k in 30 months or so. They also aren't making any more of this property, so maybe whoever bought it could care less . STR, covid, and unfortunately the bay area coming to town more often may prove me wrong, but this one seems out of line .
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Crash pad in Havasu for under $200k



Should be worth roughly half that in another 2 weeks based on the facts here.

It sold for about half that in 2019.
 

Dalton

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When you factor in property tax and maintenance someone lost there ass. The opportunity cost on that is the real killer.

Agreed, and 1200 dollar rent does not cover a 460k mortgage if there was one.
 

PaPaG

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Since you are the expert, how much will houses go down? I’m assuming you’ve owned a large portfolio previously?
I am not Not an expert by any means as some are here on RDs but the market is heading in a downward trend and the facts are in black and white that they are. Americans lost 1.6 TRILLION in wealth the worst in history this last month, the cost of goods and services have risen at an average of $400.00 per month per family (food and fuel), inflation increased this month, 10 year treasury going higher and highest it has been in 3 months, 2 year highest it has been in 14 years and going up, the largest builders are stating slowing sales, recent interview with Perot Jr he is one of the largest builders in Texas stated they build 58k homes this last 12 months and have planned a major slow down due to demand and interest rate hikes down to 40k this next 12 months in the fastest growing state, he stated he would advise everyone to wait on purchasing a home due to the dropping prices, layoffs are slowing gaining speed, for a non baller like me I had a decent portfolio of investment properties and sold them all and reallocated the funds to other investments. Since I only posted this thread a few months ago and so far the trend I saw is still heading lower and will continue with each prime interest rate hike. I have no exact idea where it is going to stop and how low prices are going to get, if Fed keeps increasing rates as the experts say they are going to be doing for at least another 2 to 4 meetings I am guessing 20-25% maybe 30% of asking prices during the crazy high asking price timeframe. Last but not least Again, I started this thread a few months ago not years so we are just in the beginning so lets see where the next 12-18 months go...
 
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HNL2LHC

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I am not Not an expert by any means as some are here on RDs but the market is heading in a downward trend and the facts are in black and white that they are. Americans lost 1.6 TRILLION in wealth the worst in history this last month, the cost of goods and services have risen at an average of $400.00 per month per family (food and fuel), inflation increased this month, 10 year treasury going higher and highest it has been in 3 months, 2 year highest it has been in 14 years and going up, the largest builders are stating slowing sales, recent interview with Perot Jr he is one of the largest builders in Texas stated they build 58k homes this last 12 months and have planned a major slow down due to demand and interest rate hikes down to 40k this next 12 months in the fastest growing state, he stated he would advise everyone to wait on purchasing a home due to the dropping prices, layoffs are slowing gaining speed, for a non baller like me I had a decent portfolio of investment properties and sold them all and reallocated the funds to other investments. Since I only posted this thread a few months ago and so far the trend I saw is still heading lower and will continue with each prime interest rate hike. I have no exact idea where it is going to stop and how low prices are going to get, if Fed keeps increasing rates as the experts say they are going to be doing for at least another 2 to 4 meetings I am guessing 20-25% maybe 30% of asking prices during the crazy high asking price timeframe.
So you are saying we should lace up our shoes a little bit more too????
 

PaPaG

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So you are saying we should lace up our shoes a little bit more too????
I would say so in regards to waiting to buying something in this over priced and declining market.
 

Magic Mike

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I hear you bro, you had some bitchin’ 7.3’s!!!
Things are no bueno, nobody can call it!
 

MSum661

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I am not Not an expert by any means as some are here on RDs but the market is heading in a downward trend and the facts are in black and white that they are. Americans lost 1.6 TRILLION in wealth the worst in history this last month, the cost of goods and services have risen at an average of $400.00 per month per family (food and fuel), inflation increased this month, 10 year treasury going higher and highest it has been in 3 months, 2 year highest it has been in 14 years and going up, the largest builders are stating slowing sales, recent interview with Perot Jr he is one of the largest builders in Texas stated they build 58k homes this last 12 months and have planned a major slow down due to demand and interest rate hikes down to 40k this next 12 months in the fastest growing state, he stated he would advise everyone to wait on purchasing a home due to the dropping prices, layoffs are slowing gaining speed, for a non baller like me I had a decent portfolio of investment properties and sold them all and reallocated the funds to other investments. Since I only posted this thread a few months ago and so far the trend I saw is still heading lower and will continue with each prime interest rate hike. I have no exact idea where it is going to stop and how low prices are going to get, if Fed keeps increasing rates as the experts say they are going to be doing for at least another 2 to 4 meetings I am guessing 20-25% maybe 30% of asking prices during the crazy high asking price timeframe. Last but not least Again, I started this thread a few months ago not years so we are just in the beginning so lets see where the next 12-18 months go...

Stripped away from all the Bull****, politics, agenda, elections...blah blah blah, the "real" rate of inflation is around 16.6%.
Its not a matter of if "they" will......they have to. The only thing stopping a straight up solid 2-3 bps hike right now, which is what they should actually do, is a disruption like that would send everything right through the windshield. So you're right.....we should wait 12-18 months out then assess where things are "at that time".
 

bentprops

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Stripped away from all the Bull****, politics, agenda, elections...blah blah blah, the "real" rate of inflation is around 16.6%.
Its not a matter of if "they" will......they have to. The only thing stopping a straight up solid 2-3 bps hike right now, which is what they should actually do, is a disruption like that would send everything right through the windshield. So you're right.....we should wait 12-18 months out then assess where things are "at that time".
I think i would be better to remove some of the 4x money supply they added in 2020 that is causing the inflation instead of smashing it with interest rates.
 

MSum661

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I think i would be better to remove some of the 4x money supply they added in 2020 that is causing the inflation instead of smashing it with interest rates.

Kinda hard to do over night when the money supply went parabolically vertical to new record highs....unmitagated.
 

COCA COLA COWBOY

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I'm more worried about what's going to happen after the mid-term elections. We are seeing very little for layoffs at the moment. I think we will really start feeling the trouble coming right after the elections are over.

I have many buyers at the lower price points right now, but the middle and upper is quite slow for me. However, everyone is a seller at February pricing :) ~!
 

MSum661

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30 year fixed mortgage rate just slapped the 52 week high.

Screenshot 2022-09-13 at 08-46-20 Today&#39 s Mortgage Rates.png
 

PaPaG

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Michael Burry liquidated $165,000,000 in stocks last month, maybe he can call it?
He is a smart cookie that is for sure. Days like today are great for day trading that is for sure. Long term investments, that is another topic.
 

TCHB

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In general I think people overpaid for the homes bought recently. I noticed in Havasu most of retires sold their homes in California and bought in Havasu. The local wages in Havasu do not support the todays price.
 

MSum661

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He is a smart cookie that is for sure. Days like today are great for day trading that is for sure. Long term investments, that is another topic.
Puts are being traded on every green candle right now.
There are some large block option bets on the SPX (S&P 500 Index) with a strike price at $3,750.
For most retail the conditions are uninvestable, that said I would either go long with the SQQQ or stay out of the way and leave it in money market.
 

Englewood

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In general I think people overpaid for the homes bought recently. I noticed in Havasu most of retires sold their homes in California and bought in Havasu. The local wages in Havasu do not support the todays price.
If they are Retiree's, wages would not matter, correct?
 

Englewood

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I am guessing 20-25% maybe 30% of asking prices during the crazy high asking price timeframe.
20-30% off of the peak?

I think we are all stating the same thing but arguing about it...LOF even agrees that we will give back COVID gains which are 20-30% on average?

If home loan rates go to 7%, I say 30%+ haircut. Hope I am wrong. Keep an eye on MORTGAGE rates...
 

PaPaG

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Puts are being traded on every green candle right now.
There are some large block option bets on the SPX (S&P 500 Index) with a strike price at $3,750.
For most retail the conditions are uninvestable, that said I would either go long with the SQQQ or stay out of the way and leave it in money market.
I have no experience in and do not want to get into the options markets. I day trade daily, very few long term holds for me now that the markets are all so volatile. Nasdaq has been exceptional for my trades this past 12 months that is for sure. I like the idea of being totally out of the market on a nightly basis.
 

PaPaG

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20-30% off of the peak?

I think we are all stating the same thing but arguing about it...LOF even agrees that we will give back COVID gains which are 20-30% on average?

If home loan rates go to 7%, I say 30%+ haircut. Hope I am wrong. Keep an eye on MORTGAGE rates...
In my eyes 20-30%+ off the highs where hundreds of thousands of people bought and paid at the peak this last 20 months, then their investments losing 20-30%+ during this correction is a HAT HOLDING event don't you? I would hate to lose 20-30% off my investments that is for sure.
 
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