For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[Sportin' Wood]

He owns his own business. His accountant is the one who pushed him to get the loans. They tried to get me to. They forgave the 200k. He has to pay back the 250k. But he started a toy rental business under his other. Per the accountant so he could write off all the toys and make money on them.

And we wonder why we need armed IRS agents.

 

[TGIBFTGOG]

Random data point: My Dad is selling his home in HB. Listed last week and received 10 offers over asking price. Was priced right and is a beautiful floor plan. Working on counter offers now.

 

[Havasu blue label]

It’s crazy we own a duplex in hb always getting calls me and my buddy bought that party house in 1989 great memories parting

 

[NicPaus]

And we wonder why we need armed IRS agents.

His accountant did it all by the book. No need for a IRS agent to shoot him over it. His business did suffer. Still shutdown cause of covid. Losing 30k a month or so.

There are lots of people out there that received more and there business boomed with covid. Plenty of people sitting on a lot of money currently.

 

[Englewood]

Friend paid 20k over msrp on his travel trailer. But he also got 200k free money and a 250k business loan for a low apr.

He just dropped 35k on 2 quads a little buggy and a trailer. Has 213k left to buy more toys.

The PPP crap really pisses me off...I could name some names in Havasu that upgraded their program significantly with PPP funds. We are all paying the price now. You can't put that much money in the system and not have consequences. Both sides voted for the stimulus so they are all at fault.

 

[Havasu blue label]

Yes sir I could name some names I see them at Safeway I call him mr ppp and his wife thinks she is the shit but will still go to dinner and have drinks great family just don’t handle money correctly

 

[Bpracing1127]

The PPP crap really pisses me off...I could name some names in Havasu that upgraded their program significantly with PPP funds. We are all paying the price now. You can't put that much money in the system and not have consequences. Both sides voted for the stimulus so they are all at fault.

yep i know several who bought boats,houses,vacations, and a whole lot more.

 

[hallett21]

I shoulda fudged the W3…….

 

[stillhustlin]

Was at a foreclosure auction today. Lawyer said it’s the first one he has done in years. Ended up going back to the bank. Another guy called us today with 55 lots he can’t move and his lender (hard money 20%) is trying to get the debt serviced. In my opinion we are just in the phase of pre-gaming. Haven’t even arrived at the party yet .

 

[Gonefishin5555]

I shoulda fudged the W3…….

Coulda been a millionaire......and in jail now

 

[hallett21]

Coulda been a millionaire......and in jail now

From where I’m sitting I doubt it lol

 

[DC-88]

Was at a foreclosure auction today. Lawyer said it’s the first one he has done in years. Ended up going back to the bank. Another guy called us today with 55 lots he can’t move and his lender (hard money 20%) is trying to get the debt serviced. In my opinion we are just in the phase of pre-gaming. Haven’t even arrived at the party yet .

The party will be if/ when it happens in Cali and other similar locales . The last one of those I went to was in San Luis Obispo in around 1992 when the old mid state bank auctioned off the French Bros stuff ( some of which I'd worked on ) . 22 years old, and I had saved up about 38 G's with pre qual- didn't end up buying anything , but all of it is worth about 500% more currently. The developer who scooped up the tentative map parcels made bank from 96'-07' . Mid State bank made a spin off co. called "mid coast land" which got nixed by the .gov a few years later, and led to some other good deals to be had. It's a slow jam, that's for sure. The millenial instant info crowd may have a hard time with it imo . We shall see

 

[MSum661]

 

[pronstar]

Everyone keeps mentioning the fact that the fed can't stop inflation caused by supply chain. Raising interest rates will do just that. When people have to pay a higher payment from a higher interest rate, they are less likely to buy. Would people still be buying new cars at the rate they have been if their payments were double?

That assumes purchases are non-discretionary, things people want.

Discretionary purchases - things a business or person needs - are still dependent on the same broken supply chain.

Edit: Typo sorry

 

[CLdrinker]

Yup everything is fine.

 

[Done-it-again]

Again, this only applies if you are buying in this current market..... So who cares if its 10%, if you are not buying it doesn't pertain to you.

Unless you have that HELOC you are paying for.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

I might be ass-backward, but the marry your house date mortgage phrase comes to mind for the next couple of years.

I think the Fed needs to aggressively raise rates, blow this up, and rip the bandaid off. I say go for a percentage point at the first chance and throw another for good measure next round. Anything less seems to prolong the inevitable. The party was nice; let's get through the hangover.

Does it matter if it is anything less at this point? I feel the only thing standing in the way of progress is getting to the pain quickly so we can start the cycle all over again.

Same for used trucks and all the rest.

I'm shopping, BTW.

 

[shintoooo]

I think we're going to have a period of stagnation where inventory will be low because people are not selling due to having a low interest rate and low payment on their current residence and not many people buying because interest rates are high. I think prices will not change that much over the next few years. Just my opinion.

 

[Bpracing1127]

Being in the market for a house. We might end up waiting here

 

[Havasu blue label]

You might want to find the home then low ball the price take the 5 percent loan then refi when the rates go down people selling need to move on

 

[HNL2LHC]

You might want to find the home then low ball the price take the 5 percent loan then refi when the rates go down people selling need to move on

You mean 6% loan. That is about where are at these days.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

This thread is coming up on being 3 months old.............

 

[shintoooo]

 

[Sportin' Wood]

I think we're going to have a period of stagnation where inventory will be low because people are not selling due to having a low interest rate and low payment on their current residence and not many people buying because interest rates are high. I think prices will not change that much over the next few years. Just my opinion.

This could still work for anyone that has a little cash. Find a vacant lot at a decent price and take advantage of the slower construction industry and build.

I've considered this since here in Montana, in some areas, permits are not required except for the septic and well. Build a nice spot to park the RV and slowly build it with cash.
I have a friend with an amazing compound built this way over ten years. It is heaven on earth and extremely secure from a zombie attack.

 

[Done-it-again]

I think we're going to have a period of stagnation where inventory will be low because people are not selling due to having a low interest rate and low payment on their current residence and not many people buying because interest rates are high. I think prices will not change that much over the next few years. Just my opinion.

When it comes to new homes. Material prices are still very high, as long as they stay that way new homes cannot be adjust down for high interest rates. I would buy now if we see custom homes come down in price... Because historically interest rates fall and you can refi later, just doesn't work the same when you are buying high with a high rate.

 

[NicPaus]

When it comes to new homes. Material prices are still very high, as long as they stay that way new homes cannot be adjust down for high interest rates. I would buy now if we see custom homes come down in price... Because historically interest rates fall and you can refi later, just doesn't work the same when you are buying high with a high rate.

Plans not approved yet. But the next set of spec houses we had to change things up due to material costs. Lumber has come down that's about it.

 

[Done-it-again]

Plans not approved yet. But the next set of spec houses we had to change things up due to material costs. Lumber has come down that's about it.

Yea, that's the problem...... I have a web call on our home estimate cost in TX tomorrow... I'll be sitting on the floor during that call so I don't fall out of the chair..

Already thinking we are going to need to adjust our wants...

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I think we're going to have a period of stagnation where inventory will be low because people are not selling due to having a low interest rate and low payment on their current residence and not many people buying because interest rates are high. I think prices will not change that much over the next few years. Just my opinion.

Welcome the Naysayer Club. We are serving Nayderade on the rocks today.

 

[Havasu blue label]

3 months is a long time

 

[Runs2rch]

Welcome the Naysayer Club. We are serving Nayderade on the rocks today.

Not with a side of I told you so yet? haha

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

3 months is a long time

And there was 2 months of other threads before this one.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Not with a side of I told you so yet? haha

That is served with the 36oz FACT steak cooked to your taste seasoned with salty tears.

 

[HB2Havasu]

I think we're going to have a period of stagnation where inventory will be low because people are not selling due to having a low interest rate and low payment on their current residence and not many people buying because interest rates are high. I think prices will not change that much over the next few years. Just my opinion.

Inventories are going to jump over the next 6 months. There was a glut of new home startups when rates started climbing. I agree most people who don’t “have” to move are going to stay put, and others who were in the market are now on the sidelines waiting for the bottom.

Rates won’t come down until either inflation falls below 2% or the economy goes tits up. Whichever comes first

 

[angiebaby]

Inventories are going to jump over the next 6 months. There was a glut of new home startups when rates started climbing. I agree most people who don’t “have” to move are going to stay put, and others who were in the market are now on the sidelines waiting for the bottom.

Rates won’t come down until either inflation falls below 2% or the economy goes tits up. Whichever comes first

Once again, the unknown is the baby boomers dying off or downsizing and the STR market. The unknown is how many of those situations are out there that could impact available inventory.

 

[CarolynandBob]

I think we're going to have a period of stagnation where inventory will be low because people are not selling due to having a low interest rate and low payment on their current residence and not many people buying because interest rates are high. I think prices will not change that much over the next few years. Just my opinion.

I agree

If that happens then it effects other businesses. When you move you paint, buy different furniture, buy flooring, redo landscaping etc... Those will probably lay off employees which will make the problem worse. I hope it doesn't happen, but that is what I see.

 

[boatpi]

I live in Southwest Las Vegas area, it is called Rural Enterprise. Not far from Rhodes Ranch area. Outskirts of my area regular size home on lots are still being built. Inside the perimeter of the major streets it is all zones 1/2 acre minimum lot size. The standard homes are 400K++ new, more are being built as we type. I just received a county zoning notice for a proposal to build on 22.5 acres about 4 blocks from me. These is all 1/2 acre zoned areas. Some limited to single story houses by code.

The last development in this area for 1/2 acre homes is all sold out, and some in final framing stages still. They sold out for 1.3 Mil plus options in 10 weeks. Most of this 1 mil+ is Cali residents moving in, getting away from the mess. The building is continuing as land is still available and Cali residents are leaving.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

I live in Southwest Las Vegas area, it is called Rural Enterprise. Not far from Rhodes Ranch area. Outskirts of my area regular size home on lots are still being built. Inside the perimeter of the major streets it is all zones 1/2 acre minimum lot size. The standard homes are 400K++ new, more are being built as we type. I just received a county zoning notice for a proposal to build on 22.5 acres about 4 blocks from me. These is all 1/2 acre zoned areas. Some limited to single story houses by code.

The last development in this area for 1/2 acre homes is all sold out, and some in final framing stages still. They sold out for 1.3 Mil plus options in 10 weeks. Most of this 1 mil+ is Cali residents moving in, getting away from the mess. The building is continuing as land is still available and Cali residents are leaving.

I wonder how they plan to provide a reliable water source for the continued growth we see in desert climates.

20 years ago, we laughed at an HS friend who left his job at EMWD and moved his family to Oregon. He was preaching about water driving his decision to get out of the southwest while he could. Maybe he was 20 years too early, but I think his message rings true. Water is a problem.

 

[boatpi]

Las Vegas sewer water is 100% recycled and dumped into Lake Mead. Every drop.

Per all water agreements, we will receive water from Mead first in line, the dam can stop below the turbines, we will still have water. We gain a huge amount of water from all mountain run offs, remember we are in a valley. Only evaporation and minimal yard bubblers are wasted water here. No new pools over 600 square feet in size, no new grass, most commerical grass is being replaced. No new golf courses, ever.

 

[COCA COLA COWBOY]

They keep building until they don't! I was in land development from 2000 until 2008. Yup, 2008. We had some great deals that I did really well on, but at the end we had 2400+ acres with Lennar. Lennar put 40 million into the deal and in late 2008, they just walked away. The market had shifted in 2007 and the writing was on the wall, but they kept pushing until the end. Corporations are like trains...when the money starts flowing the projects keep going until the presidents realize they won't be getting the bonus' that year...then they pull the plug and go into survival mode.

 

[84miller]

Listened to very long winded so called experts. Anyway, expected 3/4 point increase will impact buyers, however it is expected on the other side that investors/corporations who purchased homes will sell off and flood the market with housing inventory. It was also stated when the time comes that the fed starts to reduce rates, which could be a year or more out, it would be a trigger to buy as a investment. They stated the first down rate correction would be the cheapest home prices. Till then they recommend 6 month government bonds as the best place to wait it out. Do I believe them, not sure, but will keep the information in mind.

 

[PaPaG]

This thread is coming up on being 3 months old.............

And the resulted warning is slowly coming to fruition catching up to the feds increases each and every time they increase the fed rate. Lets see what the numbers are in another 3-6 months after the fed raises in a week, then again in Nov....anyone that knows anything about interest rates and finance knows that when the fed increases interest rates it takes a few months to really effect the market. 3 month old post is nothing, lets see what the total numbers and percentages of lowered prices are when the fed stops raising rates....

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I wonder how they plan to provide a reliable water source for the continued growth we see in desert climates.

20 years ago, we laughed at an HS friend who left his job at EMWD and moved his family to Oregon. He was preaching about water driving his decision to get out of the southwest while he could. Maybe he was 20 years too early, but I think his message rings true. Water is a problem.

Water is not a problem water retention is a problem

 

[pronstar]

Interest rates honestly are level-setting the what used to be considered normal.

Here’s what I don’t get:
Pundits want inflation to subside, so our roaring economy can get back to zero % interest.

In what clown world does a health economy require 0% interest???

That’s just gonna give more heroin to the addict.

In what clown world is a rate of inflation that’s higher than a 30 year mortgage interest rate sustainable?

Central bankers have caused so much distortion in the global economy, we can’t even identify what a healthy economy is anymore.

Great reset indeed…

 

[MSum661]

Real Estate movements always lag real-time leading macro market forces.
Reassess in 12-18 months.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Interest rates honestly are level-setting the what used to be considered normal.

Here’s what I don’t get:
Pundits want inflation to subside, so our roaring economy can get back to zero % interest.

In what clown world does a health economy require 0% interest???

That’s just gonna give more heroin to the addict.

In what clown world is a rate of inflation that’s higher than a 30 year mortgage interest rate sustainable?

Central bankers have caused so much distortion in the global economy, we can’t even identify what a healthy economy is anymore.

Great reset indeed…

There has literally been a generation of these conditions, they are the “new normal” and people think aggressive gains must be consistent and daily.

People call the stock losses from the heady 38k Dow peak a terrible decline. Is it? After all this we are still higher today than the Dow peak in 2020. Historically speaking, that isn’t that bad in the least.

Clown world indeed.

 

[MSum661]

There has literally been a generation of these conditions, they are the “new normal” and people think aggressive gains must be consistent and daily.

People call the stock losses from the heady 38k Dow peak a terrible decline. Is it? After all this we are still higher today than the Dow peak in 2020. Historically speaking, that isn’t that bad in the least.

Clown world indeed.

The Dow never hit 38,000.
The All time record high close still stands at 36,799.65

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

The Dow never hit 38,000.
The All time record high close still stands at 36,799.65

My point is still the same.

Not every new truck costs $80k either

 

[PaPaG]

January 5nd 2022, the Dow briefly (Under 90 seconds) hit 36,952.00 the highest it has ever been, MS is correct on the highest close. I just heard a report that said that every 1/2 percent home interest rates go up takes out 50,000-60,000 people from being able to afford buying a house. As of today mortgage rates are up an average of 66% and going higher as the Fed increases. (I had to make a correction).

 

[pronstar]

January 2nd 2022, the Dow briefly (Under 90 seconds) hit 36,592.62 the highest it has ever been, MS is correct on the highest close. I just heard a report that said that every 1/2 percent home interest rates go up takes out 50,000-60,000 people from being able to afford buying a house. As of today mortgage rates are up an average of 66% and going higher as the Fed increases.

Playing devils advocate for a moment… one could argue that ultra-low rates created a pool of buyers who were otherwise unable to afford homes in a “normal” market.

 

[PaPaG]

Playing devils advocate for a moment… one could argue that ultra-low rates created a pool of buyers who were otherwise unable to afford homes in a “normal” market.

FOR SURE, so many were able to buy that could not afford the monthly payments with the higher rates and were able to with the crazy low rates. Also, reports just came in that 33% of all homes bought this year were bought using cash. No one knows exactly what is going to happen only time will tell.