For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[TCHB]

If they are Retiree's, wages would not matter, correct?

Yes it would not matter if they paid cash. I know a few that paid 50% cash and bought a new RV. Most were not high income people. Vacation homes are a different story.

 

[HB2Havasu]

The biggest driver for a significant RE market correction, is gonna be the stock market, methinks.

If the market tanks, and many believe the worst is yet to come, then the RE market will tank right along with it.

Today might just be yore day! DOW is down -886 so far this morning.

This Bidenflation is drilling the market down to zero quick! We are down 20% in just the last 9 months. Sure glad I purged my 401K last year!!

 

[COCA COLA COWBOY]

Puts are being traded on every green candle right now.
There are some large block option bets on the SPX (S&P 500 Index) with a strike price at $3,750.
For most retail the conditions are uninvestable, that said I would either go long with the SQQQ or stay out of the way and leave it in money market.

I bought LABD yesterday before close! $$$$. I should have bought SQQQ in my IRA, but I didn't know my speculation was going to be right. Good chance SQQQ will go above $50 now.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

20-30% off of the peak?

I think we are all stating the same thing but arguing about it...LOF even agrees that we will give back COVID gains which are 20-30% on average?

If home loan rates go to 7%, I say 30%+ haircut. Hope I am wrong. Keep an eye on MORTGAGE rates...

Glad we finally got on the same page at 44 pages. I agree. I think we all agree, we just don't communicate what a crash would be properly and that is the subjective part.

I thought this video was interesting and worth a share.

 

[Englewood]

In my eyes 20-30%+ off the highs where hundreds of thousands of people bought and paid at the peak this last 20 months, then their investments losing 20-30%+ during this correction is a HAT HOLDING event don't you? I would hate to lose 20-30% off my investments that is for sure.

If they have their job, which most do (currently), the value of their home should be irrelevant.

A home is a shelter. People need to stop looking at their home as an "investment". If it goes up in value, great. The tax benefits, freedom, hedge against inflation, and a stable place for your family to reside matters much more than the current value in my opinion.

I could care less if prices drop...I'm 20+yrs from retirement anyways.

Being in real estate and seeing what 2008 did to families, was beyond sad. Suicides, divorces, etc. Financial problems are not something I wish upon anyone.

 

[Englewood]

I bought LABD yesterday before close! $$$$. I should have bought SQQQ in my IRA, but I didn't know my speculation was going to be right. Good chance SQQQ will go above $50 now.

What do you like about SQQQ, I've seen you mention it a few times?

 

[MSum661]

I bought LABD yesterday before close! $$$$. I should have bought SQQQ in my IRA, but I didn't know my speculation was going to be right. Good chance SQQQ will go above $50 now.

That will work!
I've been long and up on the SQQQ so rode out the call. Given the circumstances I can see the June lows getting taken out and a new 52 week high on deck soon with the downside macro-trend.

 

[Christopher Lucero]

I think i would be better to remove some of the 4x money supply they added in 2020 that is causing the inflation instead of smashing it with interest rates.

The fed is moving that way.

The Fed Is About to Go Full Throttle on QT. Fear Not.

Quantitative easing clearly boosted financial assets. But it would be a mistake to think that $95 billion of quantitative tightening every month would have the opposite effect.

www.bloomberg.com

hundreds of thousands of people bought and paid at the peak this last 20 months

I believe the price run up was mostly attributed to REITs buying residential rental properties. not disagreeing that perhaps 'hundreds of thousands' will end up gurgling subsurface, BUT, the REITs were wily - they need not liquidate since they were buying revenue streams with nonvariable finance rates - or ca$h - and rental rates are increasing by 10% or more.

Buy Today: Residential REITs Are A Huge Inflation Beneficiary

Currently, the economic backdrop for residential rent growth could scarcely be stronger. Click to know my five favorite residential REITs, all of which I consider strong buys right now.

seekingalpha.com

 

[Gonefishin5555]

In my eyes 20-30%+ off the highs where hundreds of thousands of people bought and paid at the peak this last 20 months, then their investments losing 20-30%+ during this correction is a HAT HOLDING event don't you? I would hate to lose 20-30% off my investments that is for sure.

The number of people who bought at the peak is not that high if you compare it to the total inventory. I bought a vacation home a year ago and it’s still up 10-15% and I’m paying the loan down so I can’t see losing much equity and the payment is low and only getting lower as inflation pushes my income higher. In a few years it will be like making a car payment.

The nasdaq is already down 25% so people waiting for an another 20-30% decline will be waiting a long time. It’s getting to the point where people should be thinking about jumping back in on the dips. At some point in the recession markets start pricing in the recovery.

I do have some worry about the number of Airbnb properties out there. This is an area that could cause some long term trouble as it works itself out. I looked in BHC for thanksgiving week and there is about 400 vacancies. Seems like too many.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

That will work!
I've been long and up on the SQQQ so rode out the call. Given the circumstances I can see the June lows getting taken out and a new 52 week high on deck soon with the downside macro-trend.

I shorted it at 47.5 recently and was up big before this morning. Still up a few bucks think I’ll ride it out

 

[MSum661]

I shorted it at 47.5 recently and was up big before this morning. Still up a few bucks think I’ll ride it out

did it with the QQQ?

 

[COCA COLA COWBOY]

What do you like about SQQQ, I've seen you mention it a few times?

It's just an inverse ETF. To be honest, I started buying it when Pelosi bought it. I like the way SQQQ moves. When you look at stocks a lot, you start to see trends and can predict them a bit.

I also like SOXS which has slightly better returns. I trade LABD a lot too, but it's really volatile. Be careful on any inverse stock though...Remember, the market wants to move upward so the cards are against you so you have be be ready to sell on a moments notice.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

did it with the QQQ?

it was SQQQ its a little confusing it goes down when nasdaq goes up so when the market got beat up for a few weeks I shorted it and the market rallied.. It was under 40 in premarket this morning and I fell back asleep and woke up to that stupid inflation report

 

[pronstar]

Today might just be yore day! DOW is down -886 so far this morning.

This Bidenflation is drilling the market down to zero quick! We are down 20% in just the last 9 months. Sure glad I purged my 401K last year!!

Goldman is liquidating tens of billions in stock holdings over the next few weeks.
Michael Burry has sold all of his stock holdings.
China is imploding.
The strong dollar is causing a massive liquidity crisis around the world.

IMHO we’re in the 2nd inning of a 9 inning game.

 

[Englewood]

Goldman is liquidating tens of billions in stock holdings over the next few weeks.
Michael Burry has sold all of his stock holdings.
China is imploding.
The strong dollar is causing a massive liquidity crisis around the world.

IMHO we’re in the 2nd inning of a 9 inning game.

2nd inning...Prob right...Ooff, That's alot of pain to come.

I had a much more optimistic outlook 30 days ago than I do now. Today's inflation numbers are not good. I would not put it past this administration to magically lower the numbers right before the mid-terms.

 

[pronstar]

2nd inning...Prob right...Ooff, That's alot of pain to come.

I had a much more optimistic outlook 30 days ago than I do now. Today's inflation numbers are not good. I would not put it past this administration to magically lower the numbers right before the mid-terms.

They’ve already tried to change the inflation rate, by changing how inflation is calculated.

Everyone keeps saying “the worst inflation in 40 years!”

But if we calculated inflation today, the same way we did 40 years ago, inflation would be way higher, surpassing the highest in our history.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

I do have some worry about the number of Airbnb properties out there. This is an area that could cause some long term trouble as it works itself out. I looked in BHC for thanksgiving week and there is about 400 vacancies. Seems like too many.

In our little bubble, we see the same. The only inventory seems to be vacation rentals or what looks like a death in the family or downsize. The boomer downsizing or death is pretty easy to see as the house is normally not seen update in 25-40 years.

I don't think we will see much in families trading up due to interest rates. I've got a few 30-something-year-old family guys working that have no intention of selling anytime in the foreseeable future due to the cheap mortgages. The smart millennial might be shifting their mindset if they bought a house to grow some roots. The ones with kids, at least.

 

[PaPaG]

Dow down 1276, Nasdaq down 632, if we have a mirror drop tomorrow and it does not recover before the fed meeting the fed may raise rates even higher than the anticipated .75, I have a feeling Powell would go 1% possibly for more than one fed meeting... Let's see what tomorrow brings.

 

[pronstar]

Dow down 1276, Nasdaq down 632, if we have a mirror drop tomorrow and it does not recover before the fed meeting the fed may raise rates even higher than the anticipated .75, I have a feeling Powell would go 1% possibly for more than one fed meeting... Let's see what tomorrow brings.

100%

And like always, they have no idea what they’re doing, they’ll overshoot the mark, and will drive our economy into the dumpster.

But that dumpster is still better than runaway inflation.

 

[hallett21]

I’m feeling pretty warm and cozy in my sub 3% mortgage with a payment that’s less than an apartment.

 

[Badchoices03]

The house is close to original from the 70s, very similar condition to the house I live in now. I have newer floors and newer appliances but no reason someone couldn’t move into that house and be perfectly fine.

29656 Longhorn Dr, Quail Valley, CA 92587 | Zillow

29656 Longhorn Dr, Quail Valley CA, is a Single Family home that contains 1080 sq ft and was built in 1979.It contains 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms.This home last sold for $416,800 in January 2023. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $506,100, which has increased by $2,935 in the last 30...

www.zillow.com

First problem is its listed as Quail Valley, which is a shithole, someone not familiar with Canyon Lake street names might look at that and move right along just cause it says Quail Valley.

 

[attitude]

First problem is its listed as Quail Valley, which is a shithole, someone not familiar with Canyon Lake street names might look at that and move right along just cause it says Quail Valley.

It’s about 50/50 on what the Zillow adds say, I’d much rather have it say Canyon Lake.

 

[HB2Havasu]

Dow down 1276, Nasdaq down 632, if we have a mirror drop tomorrow and it does not recover before the fed meeting the fed may raise rates even higher than the anticipated .75, I have a feeling Powell would go 1% possibly for more than one fed meeting... Let's see what tomorrow brings.

The FED is between a rock and a hard place. The economy is imploding while the Brandon Administration is spending money like a drunken sailor causing inflation to be the highest since Jimmy Carter. Raising rates could put the stock market into a Kamakasi Nose Dive, doing nothing could lead to Hyper Inflation. Is it 2024 yet?

 

[pronstar]

The FED is between a rock and a hard place. The economy is imploding while the Brandon Administration is spending money like a drunken sailor causing inflation to be the highest since Jimmy Carter. Raising rates could put the stock market into a Kamakasi Nose Dive, doing nothing could lead to Hyper Inflation. Is it 2024 yet?

Well, Powell has said inflation is his #1 priority.
The Fed will drive the economy into the ground if that’s what it takes.

Meanwhile, The Fed has nothing to combat supply-side shortages.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Somewhere in this thread, I shared this house. Here is an update. Looks like they split off the shop and are trying to subdivide. The area is not great BTW. It will be interesting to see how fast this sells.

41537 Pine Tree Ln, Polson, MT 59860 | Zillow

41537 Pine Tree Ln, Polson MT, is a Single Family home that contains 3608 sq ft and was built in 1999.It contains 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $640,600, which has increased by $3,316 in the last 30 days.The Rent Zestimate for this Single Family is...

www.zillow.com

 

[Havasu blue label]

Did you just buy at 3 percent our did you refi to 3 percent and start the 30 year all over

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Did you just buy at 3 percent our did you refi to 3 percent and start the 30 year all over

For gods sake man, just touch the “reply” button.

 

[NicPaus]

For gods sake man, just touch the “reply” button.

View attachment 1154553

Lol. You replying to Hallet21? Or anyone who recently bought?

I recently bought one at 3%. Don't plan on ever selling so the higher price doesn't concern me. Although it was cheapest property in this city as it needs work. Trying to buy another one from a member here. Same deal. Needs a ton of work and I wouldn't sell it.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Lol. You replying to Hallet21? Or anyone who recently bought?

I recently bought one at 3%. Don't plan on ever selling so the higher price doesn't concern me. Although it was cheapest property in this city as it needs work. Trying to buy another one from a member here. Same deal. Needs a ton of work and I wouldn't sell it.

Mines at 3% as well. Not selling so the value is meaningless. I will buy some more when prices level back out.

 

[c_land]

Somewhere in this thread, I shared this house. Here is an update. Looks like they split off the shop and are trying to subdivide. The area is not great BTW. It will be interesting to see how fast this sells.

41537 Pine Tree Ln, Polson, MT 59860 | Zillow

41537 Pine Tree Ln, Polson MT, is a Single Family home that contains 3608 sq ft and was built in 1999.It contains 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $640,600, which has increased by $3,316 in the last 30 days.The Rent Zestimate for this Single Family is...

www.zillow.com

Seems like it is going to be on the market for a while either as a listing or pending. I don't think either party would be interested in closing until that lot split is recorded.

 

[240Hallett]

Somewhere in this thread, I shared this house. Here is an update. Looks like they split off the shop and are trying to subdivide. The area is not great BTW. It will be interesting to see how fast this sells.

41537 Pine Tree Ln, Polson, MT 59860 | Zillow

41537 Pine Tree Ln, Polson MT, is a Single Family home that contains 3608 sq ft and was built in 1999.It contains 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $640,600, which has increased by $3,316 in the last 30 days.The Rent Zestimate for this Single Family is...

www.zillow.com

What’s going on with all the pipes in the plumbing room?

 

[evantwheeler]

What’s going on with all the pipes in the plumbing room?

Probably radiant in floor heat.

 

[c_land]

6.30%. A new Year to date high on the 30 year mortgage for the MND Index:

 

[MSum661]

6.30%. A new Year to date high on the 30 year mortgage for the MND Index:

Including the 5/1 Adjusted Rate Mortgage now at 6.00%

 

[hallett21]

Including the 5/1 Adjusted Rate Mortgage now at 6.00%

 

[hallett21]

I bet a broker could match or beat the above. Assuming those are accurate for today

 

[Havasu blue label]

Pretty sure a broker can but they charge more

 

[SLT Kota]

Everyone keeps mentioning the fact that the fed can't stop inflation caused by supply chain. Raising interest rates will do just that. When people have to pay a higher payment from a higher interest rate, they are less likely to buy. Would people still be buying new cars at the rate they have been if their payments were double?

 

[Done-it-again]

Everyone keeps mentioning the fact that the fed can't stop inflation caused by supply chain. Raising interest rates will do just that. When people have to pay a higher payment from a higher interest rate, they are less likely to buy. Would people still be buying new cars at the rate they have been if their payments were double?

Some car mfg's are giving 0% interest or very low ones @ 1.9-3.9% and if their home is around 3% then car buying will stay the same.

 

[Englewood]

Just came across this infographic...Can we all agree that Havasu is NOT 65% overvalued?

If so, I'm gonna own half the city when it drops

 

[TCHB]

Everyone keeps mentioning the fact that the fed can't stop inflation caused by supply chain. Raising interest rates will do just that. When people have to pay a higher payment from a higher interest rate, they are less likely to buy. Would people still be buying new cars at the rate they have been if their payments were double?

People were drunk with free money! Spending over MRSP on a RV was nuts.

 

[EmpirE231]

everything I'm watching that is pending is definitely taking much longer to close... 30+ days. No more 15 day closing.

Sometimes falling out of escrow, etc getting re-listed

 

[NicPaus]

People were drunk with free money! Spending over MRSP on a RV was nuts.

Friend paid 20k over msrp on his travel trailer. But he also got 200k free money and a 250k business loan for a low apr.

He just dropped 35k on 2 quads a little buggy and a trailer. Has 213k left to buy more toys.

 

[TCHB]

Friend paid 20k over msrp on his travel trailer. But he also got 200k free money and a 250k business loan for a low apr.

He just dropped 35k on 2 quads a little buggy and a trailer. Has 213k left to buy more toys.

I would not hire him.

 

[Havasu blue label]

If you have the income to qualify it’s yours

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Just came across this infographic...Can we all agree that Havasu is NOT 65% overvalued?

If so, I'm gonna own half the city when it drops
View attachment 1154660

And I’ll own the other half. By the expert accounts here, Havasu should be dropping 50% any second now.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

I would not hire him.

You don't need to; he has free money.

 

[Havasu blue label]

Soon

 

[NicPaus]

I would not hire him.

He owns his own business. His accountant is the one who pushed him to get the loans. They tried to get me to. They forgave the 200k. He has to pay back the 250k. But he started a toy rental business under his other. Per the accountant so he could write off all the toys and make money on them.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

He owns his own business. His accountant is the one who pushed him to get the loans. They tried to get me to. They forgave the 200k. He has to pay back the 250k. But he started a toy rental business under his other. Per the accountant so he could write off all the toys and make money on them.

Funny thing one of my clients had the same idea.