For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[Morehart]

I've been waiting for the opportunity to buy just like 2012. The pit of the market is what I'm after. If I do purchase a second home to hold on to, I'll rent my current home. No way I'm selling! Let's just say my home as quadrupled in value in 10 years. The trend is a shift, as I see it, every 10 years we are due. I'm patiently waiting. Watching 95k price cuts on multiple overpriced homes. Mark my words somebody just pulled the plug.

 

[Bpracing1127]

I’m actively searching st George area. Prices have definately dropped there but so has inventory in the last month. I think it’s because of the time of year. Search continues

 

[rivermobster]

Northern utah

Maybe you should have tried OnlyFans instead of real estate?

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Got 3 new contracts in this week and should have another over by end of the weekend. Guess people are still buying houses

Got a few HELOCS going too, we close them in a couple weeks and before anyone starts running their mouth about the HELOCS, EVERY SINGLE ONE has a CLTV under 65%.

Carry on.

 

[EmpirE231]

One house a mile away I had my eye on, actually priced very well… hit market, had to drop the price, went pending… 40 days later falls out of escrow and is back on the market.

Another down the street for 1.35 has officially hit 32 days on market. Never went pending. No price drop yet, but it’s coming. 4 months ago would have sold within a few days.

Very small scale overview, but I look at this stuff everyday, and definitely noticing a significant difference. 10yr just hit same levels as 2007, so I’m expecting rates to rise more, further constricting the market

 

[Havasu blue label]

Ok so last August how many loans did you have going helocs are great if you have plan and income behind it carryon

 

[PaPaG]

REAL ESTATE

Home prices fell for the first time in 3 years last month – and it was the biggest decline since 2011​

PUBLISHED WED, AUG 24 20229:25 AM EDTUPDATED WED, AUG 24 20222:37 PM EDT

Diana Olick@IN/DIANAOLICK@DIANAOLICKCNBC@DIANAOLICK

KEY POINTS

• Home prices declined 0.77% from June to July, the first monthly decline in nearly three years, according to Black Knight, a mortgage software, data and analytics firm.
• While the drop may seem small, it is the largest single-month decline in prices since January 2011. It is also the second-worst July performance dating back to 1991.
• “Further price corrections are likely on the horizon as we move into what are typically more neutral seasonal months for the housing market,” said a Black Knight executive.

In this article

• BKIUNCH

Could cracks in housing be good news for buyers?

Home prices declined 0.77% from June to July, the first monthly fall in nearly three years, according to Black Knight, a mortgage software, data and analytics firm.
While the drop may seem small, it is the largest single-month decline in prices since January 2011. It is also the second-worst July performance dating back to 1991, behind the 0.9% decline in July 2010, during the Great Recession.

The sharp and fast rise in mortgage rates this year caused an already pricey housing market to become even less affordable. Home prices rose sharply during the first years of the Covid pandemic because demand was incredibly strong, supply historically weak and mortgage rates set more than a dozen record lows.
First-time buyers show more demand for mortgages, even as interest rates rise

Apartment rents are finally easing after an incredible run

Home sales fell nearly 6% in July as housing market slides into a recession

Now, housing affordability is at its lowest level in 30 years. It requires 32.7% of the median household income to purchase the average home using a 20% down payment on a 30-year mortgage, according to Black Knight. That is about 13 percentage points more than it did entering the pandemic and significantly more than both the years before and after the Great Recession. The 25-year average is 23.5%.

“We’ve been advising for quite some time that the dynamic between interest rates, housing inventory and home prices was untenable from an affordability perspective, and at some point, something would have to give,” said Andy Walden, vice president of enterprise research and strategy at Black Knight.
“We’re now seeing exactly that, with July’s data providing clear evidence of a significant inflection point in the market,” he added. “Further price corrections are likely on the horizon as we move into what are typically more neutral seasonal months for the housing market.”

An aerial view from a drone shows homes in a neighborhood on January 26, 2021 in Miramar, Florida. According to two separate indices existing home prices rose to the highest level in 6 years.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images
Prices historically rise on average 0.4% between June and July, because the market is heavily weighted toward families buying larger, more expensive homes. Families like to move during the summer, when school is out.
Even during the Great Recession home prices typically rose marginally from March through May, due to the seasonality of the market. All the price declines during that era happened in the months from July through February.
Some local markets are seeing even steeper declines over the last few months. San Jose, California, saw the largest, with home prices now down 10% in recent months, followed by Seattle (-7.7%), San Francisco (-7.4%), San Diego (-5.6%), Los Angeles (-4.3%) and Denver (-4.2%).
Home prices were still 14.3% higher in July compared with July 2021, which is more than three times the historical annual price growth, but the majority of that growth took place over the first five months of 2022, before the big spike in mortgage interest rates.
The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage began this year right around 3%, according to Mortgage News Daily. It climbed slowly month to month, pulling back slightly in May but then shot more dramatically to just over 6% in June. It is now hovering around 5.75%.

 

[Havasu blue label]

It’s only certain areas

 

[bowtiejunkie]

My mom put a house on the market 8/15/22 Bakersfield on Friday 8/15. Got a full price offer, but 50% of closing costs. Another potential buyer was shown house on Saturday afternoon, but no offer.

Mom counter to a higher sale price equal to the expected 50% of closing costs and maintained covering the 50% closing costs. Buyer accepted. It’s in escrow, so hopefully it goes smoothly. This is just under $400k. Mom wanted it gone before next payment. Supposedly it’s a 15 day close.

Oh, oak cabinets and Corian countertops with gray walls and carpet. Lol

quoting myself here to follow-up. The house closed 8/31 after 15 days, with zero issues. I don't know what the comps were, but Zillow estimate was ~$405k. House sold for $395k and 50% of closing costs ($6,000). Mom was happy.

 

[WhatExit?]

Related to the economy...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...es-abandons-plans-for-dozens-of-us-warehouses

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

REAL ESTATE

Home prices fell for the first time in 3 years last month – and it was the biggest decline since 2011​

PUBLISHED WED, AUG 24 20229:25 AM EDTUPDATED WED, AUG 24 20222:37 PM EDT

Diana Olick@IN/DIANAOLICK@DIANAOLICKCNBC@DIANAOLICK

KEY POINTS

• Home prices declined 0.77% from June to July, the first monthly decline in nearly three years, according to Black Knight, a mortgage software, data and analytics firm.
• While the drop may seem small, it is the largest single-month decline in prices since January 2011. It is also the second-worst July performance dating back to 1991.
• “Further price corrections are likely on the horizon as we move into what are typically more neutral seasonal months for the housing market,” said a Black Knight executive.

In this article

• BKIUNCH

Could cracks in housing be good news for buyers?

Home prices declined 0.77% from June to July, the first monthly fall in nearly three years, according to Black Knight, a mortgage software, data and analytics firm.
While the drop may seem small, it is the largest single-month decline in prices since January 2011. It is also the second-worst July performance dating back to 1991, behind the 0.9% decline in July 2010, during the Great Recession.

The sharp and fast rise in mortgage rates this year caused an already pricey housing market to become even less affordable. Home prices rose sharply during the first years of the Covid pandemic because demand was incredibly strong, supply historically weak and mortgage rates set more than a dozen record lows.
First-time buyers show more demand for mortgages, even as interest rates rise

Apartment rents are finally easing after an incredible run

Home sales fell nearly 6% in July as housing market slides into a recession

Now, housing affordability is at its lowest level in 30 years. It requires 32.7% of the median household income to purchase the average home using a 20% down payment on a 30-year mortgage, according to Black Knight. That is about 13 percentage points more than it did entering the pandemic and significantly more than both the years before and after the Great Recession. The 25-year average is 23.5%.

“We’ve been advising for quite some time that the dynamic between interest rates, housing inventory and home prices was untenable from an affordability perspective, and at some point, something would have to give,” said Andy Walden, vice president of enterprise research and strategy at Black Knight.
“We’re now seeing exactly that, with July’s data providing clear evidence of a significant inflection point in the market,” he added. “Further price corrections are likely on the horizon as we move into what are typically more neutral seasonal months for the housing market.”

An aerial view from a drone shows homes in a neighborhood on January 26, 2021 in Miramar, Florida. According to two separate indices existing home prices rose to the highest level in 6 years.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images
Prices historically rise on average 0.4% between June and July, because the market is heavily weighted toward families buying larger, more expensive homes. Families like to move during the summer, when school is out.
Even during the Great Recession home prices typically rose marginally from March through May, due to the seasonality of the market. All the price declines during that era happened in the months from July through February.
Some local markets are seeing even steeper declines over the last few months. San Jose, California, saw the largest, with home prices now down 10% in recent months, followed by Seattle (-7.7%), San Francisco (-7.4%), San Diego (-5.6%), Los Angeles (-4.3%) and Denver (-4.2%).
Home prices were still 14.3% higher in July compared with July 2021, which is more than three times the historical annual price growth, but the majority of that growth took place over the first five months of 2022, before the big spike in mortgage interest rates.
The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage began this year right around 3%, according to Mortgage News Daily. It climbed slowly month to month, pulling back slightly in May but then shot more dramatically to just over 6% in June. It is now hovering around 5.75%.

Hahahahaha! Diana Olick is a perpetual doom and gloomer. She, like some of you guys, has been giving bad advice and calling for a housing crash since 2014. She is so deep into it, even if she didn't actually believe the crap that comes out of her mouth, she can't go back.

 

[PaPaG]

Hahahahaha! Diana Olick is a perpetual doom and gloomer. She, like some of you guys, has been giving bad advice and calling for a housing crash since 2014. She is so deep into it, even if she didn't actually believe the crap that comes out of her mouth, she can't go back.

That is strange, the numbers she stated were accurate from many sites related to the housing market. Amazing how some never admit facts about housing market correction and asking prices dropping all over the country slowly but surely as the Fed raises rates and the market catches up to the increases. Time will tell..PS I am not a doom and gloomer, I am an investor that is happy when the market booms and tries to be ready as the market collapses. I do have issues with some of the folks in Real Estate and Mortgage finance that are so afraid to admit facts so they do not lose any business, some are like used car salesman always trying to make the sale.

 

[PaPaG]

Let me Guess, the Naysayers will say Forbes is ALSO A GLOOM AND DOOM report lol lol.

The Real Impact Of A Housing Market Recession​

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Key Takeaways:

• A housing market recession occurs when home sales decline for six months straight, which officially happened in July 2022.
• Two main forces are driving the housing market recession: increasing interest rates and increasing construction costs.
• When the housing recession is done, we will enter a housing recovery cycle. This is the best time to buy below-market value properties.

Across the United States, we have seen prospective buyers struggle to find an affordable home and get an offer accepted in the last couple of years. Now we’re seeing those same prospective buyers turn up skittish as home prices fall. Many experts are debating whether this is a housing recession or simply a correction of the meteoric climb of home prices during and after the pandemic. The recent data officially points to a housing market recession, but some believe it’s a housing recession simply because builders aren’t building.

How much are housing prices dropping?
We’re finally witnessing a pullback from the quick jump in real estate prices, but the real question is how far will home prices drop? As interest rates climb higher and home sales decrease, the prices of real estate have come down. Gone are the days of the COVID-19 housing boom that led to bidding wars, all cash offers, and increased home prices across the country.

When is it a reasonable time to enter the housing market?
This is one of the most important questions that folks are asking these days because buying a property is one of the most expensive decisions that we will ever make. It’s a reasonable time to enter the market when you can find a home that you can afford; this means the overall purchase price as well as the monthly mortgage costs. Unfortunately, higher mortgage rates are making this a challenging time for many folks to enter the housing market.

What inputs drive the current real estate market?​

Home sales, new housing starts, and mortgage rates are the inputs that drive the real estate market. In a previous article here, we shared the following numbers:

MORE FROMFORBES ADVISOR

​

“Housing starts, or homes newly under construction, plunged 9.6% in July, 2022. The number of new construction projects totaled just 1.4 million, or 100,000 fewer than expected, while building permit applications fell 1.8% from June levels.”

What is a housing market recession?​

A housing market recession occurs when home sales decline for six months straight, which officially happened in July 2022. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) just published new data stating that existing home sales were down 5.9% for July 2022 and 20.2% from one year ago.
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun went on record to state, “We’re witnessing a housing recession in terms of declining home sales and home building … However, it’s not a recession in home prices. Inventory remains tight, and prices continue to rise nationally, with nearly 40% of homes [on the market] still commanding the full list price.”

So what exactly is causing this apparent housing market recession?​

Two main forces are driving the housing market recession: increasing interest rates (thanks to recent rate hikes from the Federal Reserve) and increasing construction costs. In an environment with higher interest rates than we’ve seen in decades, many new buyers are reluctant to purchase a home.
The cost of construction materials increased substantially during the pandemic supply chain slowdowns. Post pandemic, these prices haven’t returned to normal as widespread inflation has driven the prices of goods even higher.
The combination of these two forces have driven many would-be home buyers from the real estate market.
At this point, it’s important to note that experts in the media aren’t future tellers with clairvoyant abilities. While professionals do their best to predict what’s going to happen based on accessible information, there’s nobody that can state with certainty what will happen in the future. This is why we must look at accurate inputs to help us track and forecast real estate movements.

Tracking and Forecasting Real Estate Movements​

You must track real estate movements to see the impact of a housing market recession on the economy and vice versa.
How do you track real estate movements?

Homebuilding starts​

Homebuilding starts are a leading indicator of the real estate market. The Census Bureau recently released some disappointing news. Housing starts (new construction) dropped 9.6% in July 2022.
Since builders react to housing demand, we must take notice of this number as it can impact the real estate market for years to come. For instance, what will happen if interest rates drop and there’s an insufficient supply of houses to match demand?

Sentiment index​

According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), homebuilder sentiment has dropped for eight straight months, hitting 49 in August (a 6-point decrease). Anything under 50 is considered negative. Since buyers and builders are struggling with higher costs, the index is in the negative for the first time since 2014 (aside from a brief plunge at the start of the pandemic).

The number of home sale cancellations​

According to a new analysis by Redfin, about 63,000 home purchase agreements were canceled in July 2022, which represents about 16% of total home contracts for the month. This is the highest percentage of cancellations since the pandemic stalled home sales in March and April of 2020.
With homes staying on the market longer, buyers are starting to realize they have more power. With this newfound bargaining capability, buyers are requesting additional repairs since they can make conditional offers now that they’re not so desperate. Other buyers were unable to close the deals because they no longer qualified for a mortgage due to the increased interest rates. Homes were much more affordable with an interest rate of around 3% compared to 5%.
New home sales dropped 9.6% in July 2022 because builders are responding to the pullback in demand for new projects.

National Association of Realtors report on sales of existing homes​

Since NAR announced that sales of existing homes were down 5.9% for July, this indicated to many experts that a housing recession has officially begun.
The median existing-home sales price went up 10.8% from last year to $403,800. That's down $10,000 from the previous month's record high.

The recent increases in mortgage rates​

What impact has the recent increase in mortgage rates had on the housing market? The increased mortgage rates have priced many folks out of the market since they either no longer qualify for the mortgage or don’t want to be stuck with astronomical mortgage payments from buying a house at an inflated price.

Home price index​

Recent data released by NAR shows that buying a home is the least affordable that it has been in over three decades. The housing affordability index, calculated using median single-family home prices, mortgage interest rates, and median family incomes, reached 98.5 in June. This number is a 32.2% decrease since June 2021 and the worst monthly score since 1989.
Declining housing affordability coincides with the highest inflation levels in over 40 years, making this real estate recession a real concern.

The Housing Cycle​

To understand the true importance of a housing market recession, we must look at the housing market’s cycle from a historical perspective. The four phases of the real estate cycle are recovery, expansion, hyper supply, and recession. Since it’s evident that we’re currently in a recession, we have to look at the next phase of the cycle.

What comes after the housing recession?​

When the housing recession is done, we will enter a housing recovery cycle. This is the best time to buy below-market value properties. However, it’s not always easy to tell when this cycle has begun.

How soon will a housing recovery happen following a recession?​

This is where things get tricky in the housing cycle as the lingering effects of the recession are present, and many folks are hesitant to invest in or purchase real estate. Of course, you’ll never know for sure when the recovery stage is beginning, but two key signs include:

• Real estate prices are rising after bottoming out, prices are increasing from their lowest point.
• The general economy is recovering, employment is increasing and there are signs that the economy is doing well.

You also can’t ignore the role of government policies in boosting the economy. This is why many experts are eagerly awaiting the Fed’s September interest rate announcement.

What does a housing recession mean?​

For sellers, a housing recession means you may need to temper your expectations. You may not get that bidding war that you hoped for, and high prices may scare some potential buyers away. Your home could be on the market for a longer period of time, and potential buyers could demand more from you in terms of repairs.
As a buyer, you must accept the reality of a limited inventory and higher interest rates. You may want to seek out other asset classes if you’re simply looking at real estate as an investment since the uncertainty will continue for an unknown time frame.

Should you buy a home during a housing market recession?​

We’ve looked at the idea of buying a home during a recession in general, but what about a housing recession? With high-interest rates and increasing costs of construction, you may want to hold off on purchasing real estate until the market stabilizes so that you don’t get locked into a higher interest rate on a home that you purchased for an above-market price.
However, if you notice that housing prices are dropping and you find yourself sitting on a decent-sized down payment for your home, you may want to take advantage of this unique opportunity.
There are five long-term benefits of owning real estate:

• When you get a 30-year mortgage, it is a hedge against inflation. Rents will go up, but your 30-year mortgage will keep the same rate unless you refinance to a lower one.
• There are tax benefits to owning real estate.
• Over longer time horizons, you can expect to see price appreciation in real estate.
• You’re paying down the loan over time, providing you with equity in an asset.
• You need somewhere to live, so owning a home has a functional use.

Sometimes real estate is an amazing investment that provides you with steady yearly appreciation. At other times, your primary residence will just be a place for you to raise your family in the right community. Timing is not always an option for all of us.

Real estate as an Investment in your portfolio.​

We look at stocks, bonds, cash and real estate as the four main asset classes of investing. Real estate can also be looked at as an alternative asset class because there are times in which the real estate market will behave in an uncorrelated manner relative to the stock & bond markets. This becomes an attractive way to diversify a portfolio by having proper real estate holdings as investments.
When you consider owning real estate in your investment portfolio, there are many public companies to choose from and ways to own real estate with your accounts, Q.ai can help pull real estate-driven assets into your portfolio and weather the coming volatility. Best of all, you can activate Portfolio Protection at any time to protect your gains and reduce your losses, no matter what industry you invest in.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

That is strange, the numbers she stated were accurate from many sites related to the housing market. Amazing how some never admit facts about housing market correction and asking prices dropping all over the country slowly but surely as the Fed raises rates and the market catches up to the increases. Time will tell..PS I am not a doom and gloomer, I am an investor that is happy when the market booms and tries to be ready as the market collapses. I do have issues with some of the folks in Real Estate and Mortgage finance that are so afraid to admit facts so they do not lose any business, some are like used car salesman always trying to make the sale.

Based on your consistent copy and paste from mainstream media, I assume that is where you get all your information from.

Biggest change in my life over the last 2 years is to completely eliminate mainstream media from my life. I don't waste time reading articles with an agenda and news that is meant to promote fear and control.

I will sell a house or give a loan to anyone who wants one right now because the smart money knows that purchasing a home is the best way to build wealth.

Prices are leveling out and we are returning to a normal market. Diana Olick has been wrong for years and has an agenda. She has ZERO credibility in my book. If you want to buy into it, suit yourself.

 

[Havasu blue label]

correct owning profitable properties is fun when you buy at the right price

 

[PaPaG]

Based on your consistent copy and paste from mainstream media, I assume that is where you get all your information from.

Biggest change in my life over the last 2 years is to completely eliminate mainstream media from my life. I don't waste time reading articles with an agenda and news that is meant to promote fear and control.

I will sell a house or give a loan to anyone who wants one right now because the smart money knows that purchasing a home is the best way to build wealth.

Prices are leveling out and we are returning to a normal market. Diana Olick has been wrong for years and has an agenda. She has ZERO credibility in my book. If you want to buy into it, suit yourself.

So Forbes is main stream media, I think of them more of an expert with a track record of accurate reporting and information? People staying away from data and facts presented by credible sources are not people I would be listening too in regards to the largest investment in most peoples lives and or retirement planning. I bow down to your higher knowledge and expertise even though you do not follow any media lol lol lol.....

 

[Havasu blue label]

You hit that on the papag

 

[badgas]

correct owning profitable properties is fun when you buy at the right price

Also fun when you don't sell them.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

So Forbes is main stream media, I think of them more of an expert with a track record of accurate reporting and information? People staying away from data and facts presented by credible sources are not people I would be listening too in regards to the largest investment in most peoples lives and or retirement planning. I bow down to your higher knowledge and expertise even though you do not follow any media lol lol lol.....

Chinese investors own a majority stake in Forbes so it is actually worse than mainstream media........lol, but by all means keep feeding your brain with that garbage.

I have my sources for data and facts that I use when advising my clients

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Hot damn, contract #4 just came in!!! $700k PP,.....20% down in Canyon Lake. BOOM!!

 

[badgas]

I always find it amusing how people freak out over the value of there primary residence like it’s an S&P 500 Stock or something, lol. Unless your moving before Brandon leaves office in 2025 why stress about it? It’s not worth losing sleep over. You have to live somewhere, and unless you bought in the last 12 months the dip isn’t going to put you under water. Everybody needs to go drink a beer and chill.

Bingo !

Unless you plan on day trading with your primary residence who cares. Buy a home you can afford and go live your life.

 

[PaPaG]

Chinese investors own a majority stake in Forbes so it is actually worse than mainstream media........lol, but by all means keep feeding your brain with that garbage.

I have my sources for data and facts that I use when advising my clients

OK, If you insist on an excuse for everything factual I post on this topic what are some of your non Chinese or doom and gloom sources? lets check their factual records. Just curious where you find your data it may enlighten me a bit.

 

[PaPaG]

Hot damn, contract #4 just came in!!! $700k PP,.....20% down in Canyon Lake. BOOM!!

View attachment 1151938

Great for you, glad you are doing well, wish you all the success possible.. I just did a quick research into Canyon Lake, Ca. out of just over 125 house for sale 26 have dropped their asking prices ranging from 10-125k one or two even a larger drop... https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Canyon-Lake_CA
I know I know Realtor.com is owned by aliens or the Chinese and they are doom and gloom site...lol lol...

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

OK, If you insist on an excuse for everything factual I post on this topic what are some of your non Chinese or doom and gloom sources? lets check their factual records. Just curious where you find your data it may enlighten me a bit.

Excuse....what excuse? Forbes is owned by Chinese.

Just a few places I get my news and information from.

Pomp Podcast
Mortgage News Daily
Calculated Risk
Trading Experts
Dan Bongino Show

And the one person who I think actually reports without an agenda, Tucker Carlson.

I also like to listen to audio books and podcasts for things I am interested in learning everything about. Right now, I am listening to a sales podcast that specifically is for the restoration, mitigation and remediation industry.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Great for you, glad you are doing well, wish you all the success possible.. I just did a quick research into Canyon Lake, Ca. out of just over 125 house for sale 26 have dropped their asking prices ranging from 10-125k one or two even a larger drop... https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Canyon-Lake_CA
I know I know Realtor.com is owned by aliens or the Chinese and they are doom and gloom site...lol lol...

So 20% of the houses listed were overpriced, not marketed properly or are undesirable.

Market is crashing everyone.......hold on to your hats.....

 

[badgas]

like @OldSchoolBoats said the RE Market is going back to normal and the crazy refi boom is over I think everyone agrees on that. That does not indicate a collapse.

What homes were selling for with phony interest rates and sucker buyers is irrelevant.

If you ran out and waived an appraisel and paid $1.6 million for home and then 3 months later the same model goes on list for $1.65 but only appraises for $1.55 and gets a $100K drop in price that does not mean home prices are tanking that means that the buyers were being WAY too emotional and got house fever and over paid for homes.

I know many people don't like Dave Ramsey but he was preaching hard for the last year+ telling people to "not to get caught up in the hype" " Don't get house fever " " Always get a proper inspection and proper appraisel " " you people in a hurry are going to get burned "

The good news is that even though the hasty buyers paid too much for home they got a killer low rate .....unlike 2007/08

 

[c_land]

Hot damn, contract #4 just came in!!! $700k PP,.....20% down in Canyon Lake. BOOM!!

View attachment 1151938

Did you have a lot of people jumping on rate locks when they were in the low 5’s a few weeks back?

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Did you have a lot of people jumping on rate locks when they were in the low 5’s a few weeks back?

Not a ton. Was slower then, vs now, go figure. I had a few purchases that we closed who were able to take advantage of that drop.

 

[Havasu blue label]

No comment I don’t live from one project to another but congrats on the sale what’s that loan costing the buyer with a 800 credit score and 20 percent down

 

[stillhustlin]

I’m actively searching st George area. Prices have definately dropped there but so has inventory in the last month. I think it’s because of the time of year. Search continues

Wait out st George, once construction dries up there that town gets wacked. There is a ton of speculation down there right now. A lot of keeping up with the jones in that city with the Morman culture down there.

 

[rivermobster]

Wait out st George, once construction dries up there that town gets wacked. There is a ton of speculation down there right now. A lot of keeping up with the jones in that city with the Morman culture down there.

I'll let my good friends that moved up there, well over a decade or so, their town is about to get wacked.

 

[c_land]

Not a ton. Was slower then, vs now, go figure. I had a few purchases that we closed who were able to take advantage of that drop.

Oh Really. I figured august may have a bump in sales when rates caught that break mid July/early august.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Oh Really. I figured august may have a bump in sales when rates caught that break mid July/early august.

Yeah all my deals that were offering were getting into multiple situations and losing out........

Activity definitely went up during that time for sure.

 

[havasujeeper]

Damn, seems Biden has his minions infiltrating RDP, with their "everything is fine" attitude.

 

[rivermobster]

Damn, seems Biden has his minions infiltrating RDP, with their "everything is fine" attitude.

Lol...

I wouldn't go quite That far, but the truth of the matter is that home sales drop off every year at this time. Why?

The same reason the river is less crowded now. School is back in full swing!

No one wants to move when their kids are in school. The housing market will pick back up once school gets out in the spring. Same shit has been happening forever.

No one needs to panic about the RE market. The price of gas? I'm FAR more concerned about that.

Let's go Brandon!!!

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Wait out st George, once construction dries up there that town gets wacked. There is a ton of speculation down there right now. A lot of keeping up with the jones in that city with the Morman culture down there.

They are still building like crazy trying to build inventory…

I’ve been waiting for them to
Stop for 90 days.. no signs of letting up yet. Entire neighborhoods are going up still.

 

[PaPaG]

So 20% of the houses listed were overpriced, not marketed properly or are undesirable.

Market is crashing everyone.......hold on to your hats.....

Excuse....what excuse? Forbes is owned by Chinese.

Just a few places I get my news and information from.

Pomp Podcast
Mortgage News Daily
Calculated Risk
Trading Experts
Dan Bongino Show

And the one person who I think actually reports without an agenda, Tucker Carlson.

I also like to listen to audio books and podcasts for things I am interested in learning everything about. Right now, I am listening to a sales podcast that specifically is for the restoration, mitigation and remediation industry.

Strange, I never knew Dan or Tucker were financial experts and were more educated in economics than Forbes lol lol.. I think Tucker is the best out there in what he does and is my favorite TV political commentator , Dan is one of my favorites as well but I would not take financial advise from TV commentators that have zero experience in finance or investing.

 

[Cdog]

Steven Thomas is saying inventory is drying up in Orange County. Could be in for some interesting times.

All real estate is local. Some areas could be in limbo for a while to come while others adjust to over supply & market demand

 

[530RL]

Steven Thomas is saying inventory is drying up in Orange County. Could be in for some interesting times.

All real estate is local. Some areas could be in limbo for a while to come while others adjust to over supply & market demand

New house inventory is at the current time, a function of available developed land and labor. We have had no slowdown in the builders we finance. Buyers are certainly asking for concessions, but with margins at all time highs, there is plenty of room for interest rate buydowns or upgrades and fat margins.

Who knows if it changes, but demand for new construction still far exceeds the ability to supply. That is AZ, NV and CA.

The irrefutable fact is that if we would have quit financing or quit deals 5 or 7 years ago when all the talk about collapse was being predicted, we would have missed out on 5 or 7 years of record margins. Even if it goes down here, there is a lot of margin available before building becomes a loss and even if that happens, the amount one gives back is a fraction of what was made the last five years.

No one is supposed to always win, but you can never win if you don’t play.

 

[Cdog]

New house inventory is at the current time, a function of available developed land and labor. We have had no slowdown in the builders we finance. Buyers are certainly asking for concessions, but with margins at all time highs, there is plenty of room for interest rate buydowns or upgrades and fat margins.

Who knows if it changes, but demand for new construction still far exceeds the ability to supply. That is AZ, NV and CA.

The irrefutable fact is that if we would have quit financing or quit deals 5 or 7 years ago when all the talk about collapse was being predicted, we would have missed out on 5 or 7 years of record margins. Even if it goes down here, there is a lot of margin available before building becomes a loss and even if that happens, the amount one gives back is a fraction of what was made the last five years.

No one is supposed to always win, but you can never win if you don’t play.

I’m still doing deals in residential & commercial. Multi family is at a standstill this year due to cap rates & 1% rate hike for investors

 

[Havasu blue label]

Some areas will be hit differently havasu is the only area we are watching . One realtor has 5 hard money loans on properties and a hard money loan on a lot dirt waiting for a call

 

[ChumpChange]

I’m still doing deals in residential & commercial. Multi family is at a standstill this year due to cap rates & 1% rate hike for investors

Yeah it’s not a good investment when you’re paying the bank a higher rate than your return.

 

[badgas]

Some areas will be hit differently havasu is the only area we are watching . One realtor has 5 hard money loans on properties and a hard money loan on a lot dirt waiting for a call

ouch

playing with loan sharks is never a good idea

 

[Havasu blue label]

It’s crazy and it’s just beginning

 

[kurtis500]

In Park City Utah, the inventory is definitely going up. Open House signs everywhere and almost every day.

 

[badgas]

In Park City Utah, the inventory is definitely going up. Open House signs everywhere and almost every day.

Nice !

I missed open houses for those two years. Every week for the last 3 decades we had open houses. Glad to see a normal real estate market again. Everyone can slow down, breathe and make a wise choice rather than feeling like you are fetching a cab in NYC while buying a home.

 

[HB2Havasu]

Steven Thomas is saying inventory is drying up in Orange County. Could be in for some interesting times.

All real estate is local. Some areas could be in limbo for a while to come while others adjust to over supply & market demand

That is probably accurate. In the area I live 90% of the buyers are Foreign All Cash Investors so interest rates are having no bearing on sales. I know there is zero homes available in the tract I live in.

 

[Badchoices03]

So 20% of the houses listed were overpriced, not marketed properly or are undesirable.

Market is crashing everyone.......hold on to your hats.....

Agreed...my moms house is actually one of those on the link that has a reduced price....realtor admittedly listed high hoping to get someone to bite...it actually started escrow at the asking price but it fell our due to an issue with the buyers credit...so they reduced the price a bit hoping to get it back in escrow quicker..

 

[pronstar]

Inventory is still nowhere near pre-pandemic levels. Market distortions have not worked their way out of the system, and likely won’t for quite some time.

 

[retaocleg]

'nothing to see here, move on........'- everyone in 2008
years after they admit, but during it is all booooom.......get your house in order