WELCOME TO RIVER DAVES PLACE

For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

LargeOrangeFont

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...amily-landlord-to-halt-purchases-in-38-cities

BlackSTONE (Home Partners of America) is stepping out of the buying game in 38 Cities.

There is both a Blackstone and a Blackrock investment bank. I didn't know that until just now. The only Blackstone I knew makes camping griddles lol.

FbCOjXzXoAEWBMA


@MSum661 I caught the Michael Gayed reference

What are they doing with what they bought? Holding? Liquidating? Renting?
 

c_land

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What are they doing with what they bought? Holding? Liquidating? Renting?
Here it is , sounds like $25bn investor money and $300Bn of their own, not in the same entity though (home partners)

https://www.reuters.com/business/fi...mmitments-latest-real-estate-fund-2022-07-20/

https://moneywise.com/investing/rea...kstone-keeps-raising-money-to-buy-real-estate
In a regulatory filing last month, Blackstone said that it has secured $24.1 billion of commitments for its latest real estate fund called Blackstone Real Estate Partners X. The company will invest $300 million of its own capital in the fund, and has also allocated an additional $5.9 billion to investors.
 

PaPaG

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WOW still going strong. I Had to take a road trip today to find 2 SquareD 240V 50/50 Quad breakers, and 2 SquareD 240v 30/30 Quad breakers....went to Boulder City, then Henderson, then Vegas and then back to BC and back down to the river...stopped at Avi on the way up and won a nice little jackpot spending the 100 bucks they give me twice a week to come in and play, on the way back hit Tropicana, played the $1000.00 that they give me twice a week to play there and I got lucky and hit a really nice jackpot then lost 1/2 of it back and then hit it again...Didn't find what I was looking for in BC, Henderson or Vegas everyone was out and on back order but at least I came home with 20x what I left with...Today was a good day...well except for the time wasted looking for the breakers...:)
 

hallett21

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WOW still going strong. I Had to take a road trip today to find 2 SquareD 240V 50/50 Quad breakers, and 2 SquareD 240v 30/30 Quad breakers....went to Boulder City, then Henderson, then Vegas and then back to BC and back down to the river...stopped at Avi on the way up and won a nice little jackpot spending the 100 bucks they give me twice a week to come in and play, on the way back hit Tropicana, played the $1000.00 that they give me twice a week to play there and I got lucky and hit a really nice jackpot then lost 1/2 of it back and then hit it again...Didn't find what I was looking for in BC, Henderson or Vegas everyone was out and on back order but at least I came home with 20x what I left with...Today was a good day...well except for the time wasted looking for the breakers...:)
I’m not sure they make a Homeline 50/50/50/50 breaker. They do make a 50/30/30/50.
 

angiebaby

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Sister in Law works for a title company. Today they asked staff to voluntarily take time off without pay on a rotation so everyone can keep their jobs and avoid layoffs. But we’re also told layoffs may not be avoided.


Don’t worry everything is fine.

Ahh, yes. Furloughs. I remember those from 2007-8 in the public sector because people were not paying their property taxes.
 

MSum661

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Powell earlier today in Jackson Hole....

“While higher rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households & businesses.
These are unfortunate costs of reducing inflation.”

Code words for they will break something attempting to meet their inflation target of 2.5%
 

MSum661

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Other Powell comments....

"Will likely require restrictive policy for some time"
"Size of September rate hike hinges on totality of Data"
"History cautions against prematurely loosening policy"
 

PaPaG

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And the market is paying the price right now...Dow down over 410, Nasdaq down over 235, S&P down 63. Time to buy some panic price dropped stocks if you have the stomach for it.... :)
 

PaPaG

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I’m not sure they make a Homeline 50/50/50/50 breaker. They do make a 50/30/30/50.
I have no clue lol... I hit up City Electric in Henderson as one of the supply houses I searched for it, they said they make them BUT are hard to find right now, he guided me to House of Breaker waiting to give them a call in a bit.
 

hallett21

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I have no clue lol... I hit up City Electric in Henderson as one of the supply houses I searched for it, they said they make them BUT are hard to find right now, he guided me to House of Breaker waiting to give them a call in a bit.
It’s been a nightmare the last 18 months with electrical. At one point I couldn’t get PVC 90s
 

Gonefishin5555

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Sister in Law works for a title company. Today they asked staff to voluntarily take time off without pay on a rotation so everyone can keep their jobs and avoid layoffs. But we’re also told layoffs may not be avoided.


Don’t worry everything is fine.
The layoffs have not been that many most of these companies built up a ton of reserves I'm sure so they are willing to give some back to see if the market bounces back sooner rather than later.
 

MSum661

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And the market is paying the price right now...Dow down over 410, Nasdaq down over 235, S&P down 63. Time to buy some panic price dropped stocks if you have the stomach for it.... :)

Some highly respected street strategists have put a target on the S&P at 3,100. I strongly beleieve it. That's a 25% haircut from where it stands today.
The only way I can realistically see working the wrecking ball action for the foreseeable future is keep it simple and go short with the SQQQ but... remain nimble and keep a short leash with stops. Or, stay in money market.
25% downside sounds appealing to me with a posible and very doable 2x coming off the SQQQ.
Jmo.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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buy what? rental houses? I'd wait another six months at least.

His 90 day clock to 50% off in Havasu is running out.

I think a year + from now will be buying time.

Stocks.. I think they are going to falter around up and down from where they are now for awhile.
 

Gonefishin5555

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His 90 day clock to 50% off in Havasu is running out.

I think a year + from now will be buying time.

Stocks.. I think they are going to falter around up and down from where they are now for awhile.
Stocks are okay plenty of money to be made off the volatility of stuff getting manipulated. Even long term I'd be looking for stuff to accumulate but I'm playing with my trading account right now.
 

pronstar

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Lumber has been dropping. Copper is still high, abs through the roof. Only other thing I have seen go down is the vinyl plank floors I buy. $1.79 last year peaked at $4 cause of shipping now $3.19.

That’s sorta surprising about copper, because as a commodity it was down as much as 30% recently, but has clawed back a bit and is now down 20% YOY
 

NicPaus

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That’s sorta surprising about copper, because as a commodity it was down as much as 30% recently, but has clawed back a bit and is now down 20% YOY
12/2 romex $156. I think it was $62. Might take a while to drop on the shelf. I am a few months out on my addition. Hopefully everything drops by then. Be nice to be at $100 a sq ft instead of $2-250.
 

HB2Havasu

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I always find it amusing how people freak out over the value of there primary residence like it’s an S&P 500 Stock or something, lol. Unless your moving before Brandon leaves office in 2025 why stress about it? It’s not worth losing sleep over. You have to live somewhere, and unless you bought in the last 12 months the dip isn’t going to put you under water. Everybody needs to go drink a beer and chill. 🍻
 

Havasu blue label

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Not a keyboard monkey just watching one market and that’s havasu my California property and rental have been fun
 

DC-88

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Just a quick observation from today in one market I watch, because one of my kids wants to buy here or similar general location of Phoenix in a year or so. Would this starting as a vacant lot, 3200 sq foot house with 4 bathrooms, retaining walls, pool, plans, permits, contractor fee, etc cost more or less than this asking price in today's const. and land purchase prices factoring in it's slightly dated ? I know what it would cost to build in Az. and in California because that's what I've done for 30 yrs . In my Ca. coastal town we are still holding profit margin, which slipped here as well in both 90' to 96' and 08' -11'
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/13231-N-El-Pueblo-Blvd-Fountain-Hills-AZ-85268/7878183_zpid/
 
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havasujeeper

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I know Zillow is crap, but in 3 months, I have lost $93K on my house value. Hold onto your hats folks.
 

Instigator

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Just a quick observation from today in one market I watch, because one of my kids wants to buy here or similar general location of Phoenix in a year or so. Would this starting as a vacant lot, 3200 sq foot house with 4 bathrooms, retaining walls, pool, plans, permits, contractor fee, etc cost more or less than this asking price in today's const. and land purchase prices factoring in it's slightly dated ? I know what it would cost to build in Az. and in California because that's what I've done for 30 yrs . In my Ca. coastal town we are still holding profit margin, which slipped here as well in both 90' to 96' and 08' -11'
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/13231-N-El-Pueblo-Blvd-Fountain-Hills-AZ-85268/7878183_zpid/
You would be hard pressed to build that house for what they are asking for it right now in that area and it would take well over a year to build it right now.
 

Instigator

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I always find it amusing how people freak out over the value of there primary residence like it’s an S&P 500 Stock or something, lol. Unless your moving before Brandon leaves office in 2025 why stress about it? It’s not worth losing sleep over. You have to live somewhere, and unless you bought in the last 12 months the dip isn’t going to put you under water. Everybody needs to go drink a beer and chill. 🍻
Unless they bought over their head and lose a Jon and can't replace their income, everything will be fine as long as they aren't forced to sell.
 

Sportin' Wood

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You would be hard pressed to build that house for what they are asking for it right now in that area and it would take well over a year to build it right now.
I agree; I don't know this house, but I have seen Zillow ads that use old pictures, and it would be difficult to appraise value based on images. We all agree it is worth what someone is willing to pay regardless of the replacement value. Location will continue to be a driving force in home values irrespective of what the interest rates or economy throw our way.

This is a gorgeous home; sometimes, half the battle is finding listings in desirable neighborhoods. We may discount listing availability in our discussions. If someone with the means wants a home in a desirable area, they may be willing to pay just for the opportunity.

The STR season is over here in Montana, and we have seen popular STR lake view homes with LTR signs in front of them. Normally they would have been shuttered for winter. With a rental housing shortage here, Many are shifting, but with that shift comes challenges. Leading indicators are suggesting next year could be interesting. I suspect, at least in this market, the spring might provide an opportunity we are hoping for. When I say this, I mean a return to pre-C-19 prices.

The last summer holiday seems to be going out with a whisper here. Our little lakefront town is pretty quiet. The weather is expected to be perfect, which is not a contributor.
 

COCA COLA COWBOY

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You would be hard pressed to build that house for what they are asking for it right now in that area and it would take well over a year to build it right now.
But, what if it's value goes down to $700k which is very possible?
 

2FORCEFULL

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Sister in Law works for a title company. Today they asked staff to voluntarily take time off without pay on a rotation so everyone can keep their jobs and avoid layoffs. But we’re also told layoffs may not be avoided.


Don’t worry everything is fine.
Jack and jill were working, time slowed to where they had to let some one go.... manager didn't know what to do as he liked the workers equally , he see's jill at the water cooler and figures good time to let here know.... he says to Jill.s times are getting tough.,,, I need to lay you, or Jack off..... Jill replies.... go ahead and Jack off.... I've got a head ache
 

Good Stuff

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Sister in Law works for a title company. Today they asked staff to voluntarily take time off without pay on a rotation so everyone can keep their jobs and avoid layoffs. But we’re also told layoffs may not be avoided.


Don’t worry everything is fine.
Orange Coast? They love to do that.
 

stillhustlin

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If anyone is looking for some real life examples we’ve got 2 subdivisions we were under contract to purchase that will be going back to the lender through foreclosure. This has unfolded in the last week. Both have hard money lenders as the primary. 77 lots in total. I don’t know as far as how actual housing will due but we have seen raw/developed land drop about 30% in our market. Most land developers have significantly smaller margins so people will walk away from projects.
 
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