Gonefishin5555
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The bigger failure was in allowing rates to go too low before that.
At this point, Im not even sure the game has started.
I have zero faith in anything this administration touches.
They failed miserably by raising rates so slowly.
I don't have any direct experience with PE acquisitions. I would assume they would mostly leave the culture intact. The best opportunity seems to be the person who really knows how the business is run but was underappreciated by the founder. I've seen a few of them springboard quickly to leadership roles beyond the company they previously worked for.Interesting. I work for a founder owned company that was just picked up by a PE firm. So far so good for me. But I do see some of what you describe above. I wonder what the typical "employee won't sue the new owners" package looks like?
Nice looking house. I wonder how far you have to drive to work @ walmart etc.? HahaStill selling sub $200k in some areas.
738 S Cherokee St, Haskell, OK 74436 | Zillow
738 S Cherokee St, Haskell OK, is a Single Family home that contains 1399 sq ft and was built in 2023.It contains 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The Rent Zestimate for this Single Family is $1,667/mo, which has increased by $1,667/mo in the last 30 days.www.zillow.com
Market data in every other credit related industry is bad.
Auto loan defaults are at their highest point since 1994.
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Credit card debt defaults:
Commercial real estate is a dumpster fire with adjustable rates that are resetting and a lack of demand. The only thing saving housing today is the low rates of the past and the resulting lack of inventory.
Housing looks like a stalwart. But what does this mean for the next generation? There will not be a next crop of home owners as investment in residential rentals has sky rocketed adding to an already tight housing market.
Investor purchases of single family residences averaged 16% year over year pre pandemic. Post 2021 that number has almost doubled to 28% through 2022 and 2023. In the fourth quarter of 2022 investors purchased 33% of homes in the lower 33% of the average metro area sales price.
None of this is good for a healthy housing market.
We can all be happy what accounts for what for most of our largest investments are maintaining their value but this is not a good indicator for a healthy economy and is outright devastating for the next generation unless something breaks.
I've done it a few times in my life, but it was not a second job but more as seeding a startup. Both times I took downgraded decent-paying jobs, I knew how to basically automate. In both cases, I did not need the job but wanted the cash flow. Truth be told, I side-hustled the King of the Hammers while working for a guy building Chipotle restaurants all across So Cal post-great recession. If your project management skills are strong and you know the job extremely well, it's a no-brainer. I phoned that job in literally.
The employer should be present enough to see high potential employees need challenges. Shame on them for wasting talent.
Not sure what I did wrong on the previous post... Spot on @Sportin' WoodHaha, Company's Trust seems like an oxymoron. A Job has a different definition for each person and, I am sure, wildly different expectations.
Do Companies really trust employees? I've been both owner and servant and never trusted either. You might have a few key employees whom you trust and perhaps even love, but on average, employees are, in most cases, faceless labor that serves a purpose and is tossed out when that need expires. A job is an exchange for labor or knowledge, and be assured when the bigger, better deal comes along, loyalty be dammed.
My comments and attitude are based on my experience of working almost every day since I was in the 5th grade. I've never collected unemployment a day in my life because I was never unemployed long enough. If you keep providing opportunities for growth and challenges to high-potential employees, they will not look for other opportunities. This is the beauty of capitalism. While I love my Job (It is the first job I have held for over ten years), My loyalty only extends so far. If I get bored, I will look for a side hustle or start another business. If I ever did that again, I would know it could be grounds for termination and would take that into consideration.
I work exclusively with our acquired portfolio of business units, and I can tell you that even in cases where the founder is perceived as being loyal to their employees, they always sell them. Yes, SELL THEM. They never share the fruits of labor they provided with the employees. They take it and leave them with new bosses, culture, and expectations to perform according to what the founder sold. BTW, including the heir apparent son or daughter. Those are the worst because the child is really angry and mostly worthless disrupters. They rarely share that wealth with them, either.
Yes, I took advantage, and they took advantage of me by gladly accepting me into a role that I was overly qualified for for an average wage. Kind of like a whore and a john relationship. Yep, I was the whore, but a whore with an agenda.
Yes, I agree, Solid............Planning. Judge all you want.
have noticed a huge slowdown in business overall the last 2 weeks. Things are definitely grinding to a haltBring the pain!!!
I don't know how it was done and can only assume because the investor had cash. But the 10k sq ft commercial industrial building next to me was taken for a 30% off of listing. Was listed for $350sq ft and sold for $245 wish I would have known. But I don't have that kind of cash available and would need to go a SBA routeSomeone PM me when it's time to buy commercial Real estate and a vacation house.... Until then I'll be working and hustling .
We are a small mom/pop shop with 3 employees. We haven't paid for leads and advertising for a long time and work of referrals and retention. We are slow but mostly because the block binds.have noticed a huge slowdown in business overall the last 2 weeks. Things are definitely grinding to a halt
Bring the pain!!!
agree....Its funny.. of all the pain, residential housing is shaping up to feel it the least.
Even If it looses 20%... its going to go up another 40% when they start dropping rates.
same... we will weather the storm... just interesting to see the slow down.We are a small mom/pop shop with 3 employees. We haven't paid for leads and advertising for a long time and work of referrals and retention. We are slow but mostly because the block binds.
Ended up with a surprise contingency last week and our monthly commission check was up about 10k from last year. (rate changes)
We are built for slow times and weathering the storm...lol
What’s hard for me is I’m making the same. I’m still working my 56 hours a week and umpiring on Sundays. It’s just the money isn’t going as far. Thank God I drive an EV because I couldn’t afford to put gas in my truck every week. I’ve stopped eating out for lunch, I’m not treating my teams to pizza party’s every Friday just little things like that. Normally me paying for fields or umpires is no big deal. Lately I’ve been asking the parents to each kick in 5 bucks. I can’t honestly say we are struggling but things are a lot tighter than I’m used to. It’s been years since I’ve felt like this. For guys in the field that get laid off YIKES
Keep stacking your chips.Home inventory in Phoenix has gone up 20% in the last month, from 10-12k. Everyday my email is lined with price drops too.
California on the other hand just seems stagnant.
Good watch thank you. I want to jump back into Bitcoin and eth but after losing money w BlockFi I’m scared. I like what he said about drinking you own success and arrogance. I don’t hope for anyone to fail but I’ve been seeing it a lot and it’s always in the back of my mind. I never brag about money anymore.I had to take a second look at my salary this week because, between rates and inflation, the salary just is not providing the same bang.
I tend to agree with PBD on the crash-up.
For sure new house quotes and car changes are down.same... we will weather the storm... just interesting to see the slow down.
Endorsements to add new vehicles are way down.... which means a lot less cars being sold. Home quotes for new purchases are way down, meaning a lot less homes being sold.... those two things alone will be a big gut punch to the economy. Impacts a lot of industries and jobs.
The fact that the discussion has shifted in here, just from today... means we'll start seeing the impact very soon. Most people are just a few bad weeks away from losing it all.... and if a lot of people cut back 10% ...20% on discretionary spending, it'll have a ripple effect through a lot of industries.
if they can keep their jobs, yes.There are still two jobs for every applicant. The housing market is not going anywhere but up.
Most cash has worked itself into the 5%+ bond market, and it’s really hard to give that up, when the stock market is loosing 1%+ a day.
I think “most” people have always been one paycheck away from losing it all.
Unless you’re debt free, higher interest rates will fuck up your life quick. The good news is these people have good jobs, and will be paying on their debt, hoping to capitalize when rates drop again.
There are still two jobs for every applicant. The housing market is not going anywhere but up.
Most cash has worked itself into the 5%+ bond market, and it’s really hard to give that up, when the stock market is loosing 1%+ a day.
I think “most” people have always been one paycheck away from losing it all.
Unless you’re debt free, higher interest rates will fuck up your life quick. The good news is these people have good jobs, and will be paying on their debt, hoping to capitalize when rates drop again.
agreed...feels different for sureOne big difference between this time around and 06-08 is the inflation. These higher prices may be here to stay now. Last time around we had a crash, but not much inflation before or after that (other than housing)
PBD is my favorite opinion show right now.Good watch thank you. I want to jump back into Bitcoin and eth but after losing money w BlockFi I’m scared. I like what he said about drinking you own success and arrogance. I don’t hope for anyone to fail but I’ve been seeing it a lot and it’s always in the back of my mind. I never brag about money anymore.
Your bring up a super valid point. People do not for the most part view trades in a field as "career/high paying" jobs. Americans don't want to do work like that.Everyone is short workers and unemployment is at an all time low but I know of very few jobs that I would consider career/high paying jobs out there.
I think there are a ton of shit jobs available and people that don't want to work those positions.
The mortgage and real-estate guys are going to be hurting very soon unfortunately unless you diversified like Joe or saved for a rainy day.
In certain ways I could see the economy being hurt worse than 06-08 but I think it won't be so much the housing market this time around as people are now accustomed to living way above there pay grade. Be interesting to see bankruptcy statistics here shortly as I think people will be forced top default on the toys and cc debt first. Houses will be the last to go as I saw some data the other day and the amount of people locked under a 4% mortgage interest rate was huge....People won't walk with high rents and low house payments.
Rich get richer....PBD is my favorite opinion show right now.
Based on the entry list for the U4 race this weekend, someone still has cash. These cars cost a fortune to race and maintain. The race culture with U4 tends to like to party, and there was no shortage of that happening at Cha-Bones last night.
I will be attending SEMA next week for the full week for the first time in years. ( I normally pop in for a day.) I'm planning to do some recon and determine the temperature in the room on what the manufacturers are seeing with this economy. I mostly want to confirm what I believe to be true.
Just in Time, manufacturing seems a distant past.
- Significant skilled labor shortage
- Inflationary pressure
- Availability of raw material challenges
- Margin erosion.
I think manufacturing is going to find itself in a tough spot if it is not already there. Those with cash will have to invest in automation, and those without cash are going to be challenged.
Of course, I also want to see if SEMA has completely sold American manufacturing out to the Chinese. Have we reached 70% of the halls for the CCP yet?
The real estate market will forever be changed in my opinion until we all die off with our 3% mortgages.
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I’d give up mine to cash out some equity for a second home But not for any sort of remodeling or toys or………I think if we ever settle back into a 4.25 - 5.25 range, you will see people give up those mortgages.
Which is why we need the economy to take a shit with no bailout. People need to learn to produce again. Hell we just hired a 29 year old guy, $55 hr, 1 month vacation, brand new company truck, all the benefits & this is our typical guy now. We are competing against the government & unions. This is the saddest work ethic I've seen my entire life.Your bring up a super valid point. People do not for the most part view trades in a field as "career/high paying" jobs. Americans don't want to do work like that.
We have jobs where one drives around in and operating $200,000 of equipment making over 50 bucks an hour fully loaded with benefits and yet we have equipment sitting with a backlog of work. Truck drivers, framers, electricians, field superintendents, equipment operators and the list goes on. And they remain empty and will probably remain empty as many in American society views those jobs as now beneath them.
That will be a true struggle for our economy, especially when the same who clamor for more manufacturing and other things done in America, would never dream of having their offspring working as labor in a manufacturing plant or on a construction site. Something will have to give.
I would be 341% more expensive to buy at todays prices.I just ran the numbers for our house if we were to buy today with roughly the same down we put in. All in the payments would be 3x what we pay today.
Other than deaths, divorce etc I don’t see properties selling when they are so “cheap” to own.
what type of work?Which is why we need the economy to take a shit with no bailout. People need to learn to produce again. Hell we just hired a 29 year old guy, 55 hr, 1 month vacation, brand new company truck, all the benefits & this is our typical guy now. We are competing against the government & unions. This is the saddest work ethic I've seen my entire life.
As far as housing, we'll continue to have a housing shortage in CA because tons of people are buying rentals & don't sell the homes they lived in when they move to another. It's more lucrative to rent & build equity. I have a good friend, who's a long time developer, who has over 400 houses, builds them & keeps them. A nephew & niece who buy one each year as their plan (have 10). Their business partner owns 100 homes. I'm surprised nobody talks about this being part of the shortage problem.
I paid I think $300 to inspect a Pulte home I bought new during the walk through inspection. Nothing is ever supposed to be easy. If it is, you missed something. . Pulte was not happy, and neither was I.I haven't spoke much but...we sold our house about 5 weeks ago. 20 day escrow. Over asking offers and gone in a day.
Moving into new home Thursday next week.
It has been less than enjoyable! Our realtors are good. But the rest of the process has been a heart attack in the making. The entire real estate, inspection, termite, blah blah is basically extortion.
More details after the smoke settles.
Good bye beach and close neighbors!
Wrote an offer on this property for a client of mine. 20% down conventional loan at 1.8m on Friday when it was listed. It is currently in escrow for 200k above ask, cash offer with a 2 week close. They had 11 offers.
5175 Paddock Pl, Rancho Cucamonga, CA 91737 | Zillow
5175 Paddock Pl, Rancho Cucamonga CA, is a Single Family home that contains 5217 sq ft and was built in 2002.It contains 5 bedrooms and 5 bathrooms.This home last sold for $1,900,000 in November 2023. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $1,775,400, which has decreased by $15,568 in the...www.zillow.com