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For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

Looking Glass

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At this point, Im not even sure the game has started.

I have zero faith in anything this administration touches.

They failed miserably by raising rates so slowly.


BUT!!, that "MEAN OLD" President Trump, Calling people Names and Shit!!

Just wait until the "Open Border" Consequences "KICK IN"

"ENERGY" affects Every Aspect of our lives, and now with what is going on over in the Middle East, All Bets are off. Buying "OIL" at Whore House" Prices from People Who Hate, VS. Pumping our own.🤔
 

Sportin' Wood

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Interesting. I work for a founder owned company that was just picked up by a PE firm. So far so good for me. But I do see some of what you describe above. I wonder what the typical "employee won't sue the new owners" package looks like?
I don't have any direct experience with PE acquisitions. I would assume they would mostly leave the culture intact. The best opportunity seems to be the person who really knows how the business is run but was underappreciated by the founder. I've seen a few of them springboard quickly to leadership roles beyond the company they previously worked for.
 

Orange Juice

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Still selling sub $200k in some areas. 😉

 

wzuber

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Still selling sub $200k in some areas. 😉

Nice looking house. I wonder how far you have to drive to work @ walmart etc.? Haha
 

DrunkenSailor

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Market data in every other credit related industry is bad.

Auto loan defaults are at their highest point since 1994.

image001 (1).png


Credit card debt defaults:


Commercial real estate is a dumpster fire with adjustable rates that are resetting and a lack of demand. The only thing saving housing today is the low rates of the past and the resulting lack of inventory.

Housing looks like a stalwart. But what does this mean for the next generation? There will not be a next crop of home owners as investment in residential rentals has sky rocketed adding to an already tight housing market.

Investor purchases of single family residences averaged 16% year over year pre pandemic. Post 2021 that number has almost doubled to 28% through 2022 and 2023. In the fourth quarter of 2022 investors purchased 33% of homes in the lower 33% of the average metro area sales price.

None of this is good for a healthy housing market.

We can all be happy what accounts for what for most of us is our largest investments are maintaining their value but this is not a good indicator for a healthy economy and is outright devastating for the next generation unless something breaks.
 
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LargeOrangeFont

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Market data in every other credit related industry is bad.

Auto loan defaults are at their highest point since 1994.

View attachment 1293668

Credit card debt defaults:


Commercial real estate is a dumpster fire with adjustable rates that are resetting and a lack of demand. The only thing saving housing today is the low rates of the past and the resulting lack of inventory.

Housing looks like a stalwart. But what does this mean for the next generation? There will not be a next crop of home owners as investment in residential rentals has sky rocketed adding to an already tight housing market.

Investor purchases of single family residences averaged 16% year over year pre pandemic. Post 2021 that number has almost doubled to 28% through 2022 and 2023. In the fourth quarter of 2022 investors purchased 33% of homes in the lower 33% of the average metro area sales price.

None of this is good for a healthy housing market.

We can all be happy what accounts for what for most of our largest investments are maintaining their value but this is not a good indicator for a healthy economy and is outright devastating for the next generation unless something breaks.

Agreed. When this all falls apart, probably next year.. its not going to be good. I hope the FED has some balls and will hold rates and not bow to whatever pressure to drop rates, or it will be even worse.
 
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BHC Vic

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I don’t have any data or numbers but I will say in my household things have gotten tight. Normally we live very comfortably and still save just fine. Lately I’ve been much tighter than I have been in years and saving or investing has really really been tough. I did buy more Lucid stock today at a 52 week low but it was tough to make myself do it. I coach 3 baseball teams and we are very close. It’s not just our household that is feeling it. It was kind of the talk of one of our team parties last Saturday.
 

Hammer

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I've done it a few times in my life, but it was not a second job but more as seeding a startup. Both times I took downgraded decent-paying jobs, I knew how to basically automate. In both cases, I did not need the job but wanted the cash flow. Truth be told, I side-hustled the King of the Hammers while working for a guy building Chipotle restaurants all across So Cal post-great recession. If your project management skills are strong and you know the job extremely well, it's a no-brainer. I phoned that job in literally.



The employer should be present enough to see high potential employees need challenges. Shame on them for wasting talent.
Haha, Company's Trust seems like an oxymoron. A Job has a different definition for each person and, I am sure, wildly different expectations.

Do Companies really trust employees? I've been both owner and servant and never trusted either. You might have a few key employees whom you trust and perhaps even love, but on average, employees are, in most cases, faceless labor that serves a purpose and is tossed out when that need expires. A job is an exchange for labor or knowledge, and be assured when the bigger, better deal comes along, loyalty be dammed.

My comments and attitude are based on my experience of working almost every day since I was in the 5th grade. I've never collected unemployment a day in my life because I was never unemployed long enough. If you keep providing opportunities for growth and challenges to high-potential employees, they will not look for other opportunities. This is the beauty of capitalism. While I love my Job (It is the first job I have held for over ten years), My loyalty only extends so far. If I get bored, I will look for a side hustle or start another business. If I ever did that again, I would know it could be grounds for termination and would take that into consideration.

I work exclusively with our acquired portfolio of business units, and I can tell you that even in cases where the founder is perceived as being loyal to their employees, they always sell them. Yes, SELL THEM. They never share the fruits of labor they provided with the employees. They take it and leave them with new bosses, culture, and expectations to perform according to what the founder sold. BTW, including the heir apparent son or daughter. Those are the worst because the child is really angry and mostly worthless disrupters. They rarely share that wealth with them, either.

Yes, I took advantage, and they took advantage of me by gladly accepting me into a role that I was overly qualified for for an average wage. Kind of like a whore and a john relationship. Yep, I was the whore, but a whore with an agenda.

Yes, I agree, Solid............Planning. :) Judge all you want.
Not sure what I did wrong on the previous post... Spot on @Sportin' Wood
 

Done-it-again

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Someone PM me when it's time to buy commercial Real estate and a vacation house.... Until then I'll be working and hustling . 🤣
I don't know how it was done and can only assume because the investor had cash. But the 10k sq ft commercial industrial building next to me was taken for a 30% off of listing. Was listed for $350sq ft and sold for $245 wish I would have known. But I don't have that kind of cash available and would need to go a SBA route
 

Cole Trickle

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have noticed a huge slowdown in business overall the last 2 weeks. Things are definitely grinding to a halt
We are a small mom/pop shop with 3 employees. We haven't paid for leads and advertising for a long time and work of referrals and retention. We are slow but mostly because the block binds.

Ended up with a surprise contingency last week and our monthly commission check was up about 10k from last year. (rate changes)

We are built for slow times and weathering the storm...lol
 

Todd Mohr

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I am having my slowest month I can remember except when inventory was tight. High interest rates, WW3, and fear I'm thinking.
 

BHC Vic

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What’s hard for me is I’m making the same. I’m still working my 56 hours a week and umpiring on Sundays. It’s just the money isn’t going as far. Thank God I drive an EV because I couldn’t afford to put gas in my truck every week. I’ve stopped eating out for lunch, I’m not treating my teams to pizza party’s every Friday just little things like that. Normally me paying for fields or umpires is no big deal. Lately I’ve been asking the parents to each kick in 5 bucks. I can’t honestly say we are struggling but things are a lot tighter than I’m used to. It’s been years since I’ve felt like this. For guys in the field that get laid off YIKES
 

Cole Trickle

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Its funny.. of all the pain, residential housing is shaping up to feel it the least.

Even If it looses 20%... its going to go up another 40% when they start dropping rates.
agree....

Anything in the 5's rate wise this thing goes crazy again. I hope the rates stay high as a temporary dip would certainly destroy the market if values went up another 25% right now. We absolutely need a correction inflation is a middle class killer.
 

stillhustlin

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Last 2 weeks have been dead for us. We have only sold 4 homes this month. With the first snowfall/winter weather this weekend my guess is this will be the start to a slow winter. On a side note everything we are contracting has a higher land valuation and value than anything we’ve done in the past. Also seeing guys get squeezed and their loan terms are coming due and they would need to refi at current rates to keep projects that are having a much slower absorption rate the expected.
 

EmpirE231

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We are a small mom/pop shop with 3 employees. We haven't paid for leads and advertising for a long time and work of referrals and retention. We are slow but mostly because the block binds.

Ended up with a surprise contingency last week and our monthly commission check was up about 10k from last year. (rate changes)

We are built for slow times and weathering the storm...lol
same... we will weather the storm... just interesting to see the slow down.

Endorsements to add new vehicles are way down.... which means a lot less cars being sold. Home quotes for new purchases are way down, meaning a lot less homes being sold.... those two things alone will be a big gut punch to the economy. Impacts a lot of industries and jobs.
 

Sportin' Wood

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What’s hard for me is I’m making the same. I’m still working my 56 hours a week and umpiring on Sundays. It’s just the money isn’t going as far. Thank God I drive an EV because I couldn’t afford to put gas in my truck every week. I’ve stopped eating out for lunch, I’m not treating my teams to pizza party’s every Friday just little things like that. Normally me paying for fields or umpires is no big deal. Lately I’ve been asking the parents to each kick in 5 bucks. I can’t honestly say we are struggling but things are a lot tighter than I’m used to. It’s been years since I’ve felt like this. For guys in the field that get laid off YIKES

I had to take a second look at my salary this week because, between rates and inflation, the salary just is not providing the same bang.

I tend to agree with PBD on the crash-up.

 

BHC Vic

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I had to take a second look at my salary this week because, between rates and inflation, the salary just is not providing the same bang.

I tend to agree with PBD on the crash-up.

Good watch thank you. I want to jump back into Bitcoin and eth but after losing money w BlockFi I’m scared. I like what he said about drinking you own success and arrogance. I don’t hope for anyone to fail but I’ve been seeing it a lot and it’s always in the back of my mind. I never brag about money anymore.
 

OldSchoolBoats

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My mortgage business is dead. We did just over $1 million last month but nothing this month and nothing in the pipeline. All my pre approved borrowers want to wait until after the first of the year to see what happens....... All Dry is keeping us afloat, but we haven't really taken much out of it. Revenue is up month over month and we have been busy, but we would need to get much more busy to replace the mortgage business revenue.
 

Cole Trickle

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same... we will weather the storm... just interesting to see the slow down.

Endorsements to add new vehicles are way down.... which means a lot less cars being sold. Home quotes for new purchases are way down, meaning a lot less homes being sold.... those two things alone will be a big gut punch to the economy. Impacts a lot of industries and jobs.
For sure new house quotes and car changes are down.

Only good news is I feel like the market is more stable right now than it was a year ago. At least all companies/rates are fucked. It sucked loosing long time clients to carriers that hadn't raised rates at that point. Sadly I'm getting clients that are trying to return after AAA jacked the rates only to find out I can't write the Auto due to MVR activity or the House no longer qualifies.
 

HTMike

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Did people really think the eye watering covid pricing on everything was permanent ? I think in the next 24 month we are going to see shit getting cheaper than anyone could have imagined.
 

BHC Vic

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I’ve been holding onto my hat since this thread started but I’m holding on with both hands now…. And I’m not doom and gloom Im just scared and being cautious. Glad I didn’t buy the new truck and trailer. Things are tight but I’m not in any big debts so at least there’s that.
 

EmpirE231

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The fact that the discussion has shifted in here, just from today... means we'll start seeing the impact very soon. Most people are just a few bad weeks away from losing it all.... and if a lot of people cut back 10% ...20% on discretionary spending, it'll have a ripple effect through a lot of industries.
 

Orange Juice

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There are still two jobs for every applicant. The housing market is not going anywhere but up.

Most cash has worked itself into the 5%+ bond market, and it’s really hard to give that up, when the stock market is loosing 1%+ a day.

The fact that the discussion has shifted in here, just from today... means we'll start seeing the impact very soon. Most people are just a few bad weeks away from losing it all.... and if a lot of people cut back 10% ...20% on discretionary spending, it'll have a ripple effect through a lot of industries.

I think “most” people have always been one paycheck away from losing it all.

Unless you’re debt free, higher interest rates will fuck up your life quick. The good news is these people have good jobs, and will be paying on their debt, hoping to capitalize when rates drop again.
 

EmpirE231

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There are still two jobs for every applicant. The housing market is not going anywhere but up.

Most cash has worked itself into the 5%+ bond market, and it’s really hard to give that up, when the stock market is loosing 1%+ a day.



I think “most” people have always been one paycheck away from losing it all.

Unless you’re debt free, higher interest rates will fuck up your life quick. The good news is these people have good jobs, and will be paying on their debt, hoping to capitalize when rates drop again.
if they can keep their jobs, yes.

The flip side to people spending less, is that those industries get impacted. When that happens, they tend to scale back and shed some jobs.... it's kinda a cycle
 

530RL

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There are still two jobs for every applicant. The housing market is not going anywhere but up.

Most cash has worked itself into the 5%+ bond market, and it’s really hard to give that up, when the stock market is loosing 1%+ a day.



I think “most” people have always been one paycheck away from losing it all.

Unless you’re debt free, higher interest rates will fuck up your life quick. The good news is these people have good jobs, and will be paying on their debt, hoping to capitalize when rates drop again.

We are short workers in every business I am involved in.

A slowdown is certainly possible, but if one looks at the real GDP number today and the super tight labor market, it will take a big dump in aggregate demand.

A slowdown would help businesses shed the bad labor that they have no choice but to keep right now. That would be a welcome realignment from the standpoint of management.
 

Cole Trickle

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Everyone is short workers and unemployment is at an all time low but I know of very few jobs that I would consider career/high paying jobs out there.

I think there are a ton of shit jobs available and people that don't want to work those positions.

The mortgage and real-estate guys are going to be hurting very soon unfortunately unless you diversified like Joe or saved for a rainy day.

In certain ways I could see the economy being hurt worse than 06-08 but I think it won't be so much the housing market this time around as people are now accustomed to living way above there pay grade. Be interesting to see bankruptcy statistics here shortly as I think people will be forced top default on the toys and cc debt first. Houses will be the last to go as I saw some data the other day and the amount of people locked under a 4% mortgage interest rate was huge....People won't walk with high rents and low house payments.
 

Cole Trickle

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One big difference between this time around and 06-08 is the inflation. These higher prices may be here to stay now. Last time around we had a crash, but not much inflation before or after that (other than housing)
agreed...feels different for sure

I'm in a much better place finically and have money to buy investment properties but honestly I'm not buying high at a shit interest rate.

I'm like LOF shopping for a new camaro and sitting on my wallet:D
 

Sportin' Wood

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Good watch thank you. I want to jump back into Bitcoin and eth but after losing money w BlockFi I’m scared. I like what he said about drinking you own success and arrogance. I don’t hope for anyone to fail but I’ve been seeing it a lot and it’s always in the back of my mind. I never brag about money anymore.
PBD is my favorite opinion show right now.

Based on the entry list for the U4 race this weekend, someone still has cash. These cars cost a fortune to race and maintain. The race culture with U4 tends to like to party, and there was no shortage of that happening at Cha-Bones last night.

I will be attending SEMA next week for the full week for the first time in years. ( I normally pop in for a day.) I'm planning to do some recon and determine the temperature in the room on what the manufacturers are seeing with this economy. I mostly want to confirm what I believe to be true.
  • Significant skilled labor shortage
  • Inflationary pressure
  • Availability of raw material challenges
  • Margin erosion.
Just in Time, manufacturing seems a distant past.

I think manufacturing is going to find itself in a tough spot if it is not already there. Those with cash will have to invest in automation, and those without cash are going to be challenged.

Of course, I also want to see if SEMA has completely sold American manufacturing out to the Chinese. Have we reached 70% of the halls for the CCP yet?
 

530RL

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Everyone is short workers and unemployment is at an all time low but I know of very few jobs that I would consider career/high paying jobs out there.

I think there are a ton of shit jobs available and people that don't want to work those positions.

The mortgage and real-estate guys are going to be hurting very soon unfortunately unless you diversified like Joe or saved for a rainy day.

In certain ways I could see the economy being hurt worse than 06-08 but I think it won't be so much the housing market this time around as people are now accustomed to living way above there pay grade. Be interesting to see bankruptcy statistics here shortly as I think people will be forced top default on the toys and cc debt first. Houses will be the last to go as I saw some data the other day and the amount of people locked under a 4% mortgage interest rate was huge....People won't walk with high rents and low house payments.
Your bring up a super valid point. People do not for the most part view trades in a field as "career/high paying" jobs. Americans don't want to do work like that.

We have jobs where one drives around in and operating $200,000 of equipment making over 50 bucks an hour fully loaded with benefits and yet we have equipment sitting with a backlog of work. Truck drivers, framers, electricians, field superintendents, equipment operators and the list goes on. And they remain empty and will probably remain empty as many in American society views those jobs as now beneath them.

That will be a true struggle for our economy, especially when the same who clamor for more manufacturing and other things done in America, would never dream of having their offspring working as labor in a manufacturing plant or on a construction site. Something will have to give.
 

Raffit78

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Wrote an offer on this property for a client of mine. 20% down conventional loan at 1.8m on Friday when it was listed. It is currently in escrow for 200k above ask, cash offer with a 2 week close. They had 11 offers.


 

hallett21

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I just ran the numbers for our house if we were to buy today with roughly the same down we put in. All in the payments would be 3x what we pay today.

Other than deaths, divorce etc I don’t see properties selling when they are so “cheap” to own.
 

Cole Trickle

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PBD is my favorite opinion show right now.

Based on the entry list for the U4 race this weekend, someone still has cash. These cars cost a fortune to race and maintain. The race culture with U4 tends to like to party, and there was no shortage of that happening at Cha-Bones last night.

I will be attending SEMA next week for the full week for the first time in years. ( I normally pop in for a day.) I'm planning to do some recon and determine the temperature in the room on what the manufacturers are seeing with this economy. I mostly want to confirm what I believe to be true.
  • Significant skilled labor shortage
  • Inflationary pressure
  • Availability of raw material challenges
  • Margin erosion.
Just in Time, manufacturing seems a distant past.

I think manufacturing is going to find itself in a tough spot if it is not already there. Those with cash will have to invest in automation, and those without cash are going to be challenged.

Of course, I also want to see if SEMA has completely sold American manufacturing out to the Chinese. Have we reached 70% of the halls for the CCP yet?
Rich get richer....

I live in a somewhat pricey area of St. George/Washington. Our neighborhood is typically 2800-5000 sq ft houses and there are 7 builds that have started in the last month. What's bonkers is out behind me the same developer has 1acre lots that sold out fast for 750k + and we are watching 10,000+++ sq foot monster houses with 6+ car garages going up daily like there is zero care in the world.

Moral of the story is nobody cares about 8% interest rates when you are paying cash and somehow a lot of people seem to be doing that.
 

OldSchoolBoats

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Well..........just got a call from one of my past clients this afternoon. Got him into his first house in 2016 and refinanced him a couple times since. He wants to buy an investment property for his daughter instead of doing a college savings account. Also is sending me a referral from his friend who is an ER nurse looking to buy and doesn't have an LO. Even when things look bleak, just take a drive and look at all the people and all the houses. There are loans and RE clients everywhere........

I don't know what I am trying to say, but for the mortgage/RE peeps in here, stay in front of your database!!! It is your ticket to survival. Also keep a good mindset!!

I just went to a seminar today and a speaker talked about database strategies and this one is solid!!! 26 letters in the alphabet and 52 weeks in a year. Call all your A's for a week, B's for a week......etc. You can touch them twice a year. Some of you will be hearing from me soon, just to shoot the shit and say hello 😉😁
 

jet496

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Your bring up a super valid point. People do not for the most part view trades in a field as "career/high paying" jobs. Americans don't want to do work like that.

We have jobs where one drives around in and operating $200,000 of equipment making over 50 bucks an hour fully loaded with benefits and yet we have equipment sitting with a backlog of work. Truck drivers, framers, electricians, field superintendents, equipment operators and the list goes on. And they remain empty and will probably remain empty as many in American society views those jobs as now beneath them.

That will be a true struggle for our economy, especially when the same who clamor for more manufacturing and other things done in America, would never dream of having their offspring working as labor in a manufacturing plant or on a construction site. Something will have to give.
Which is why we need the economy to take a shit with no bailout. People need to learn to produce again. Hell we just hired a 29 year old guy, $55 hr, 1 month vacation, brand new company truck, all the benefits & this is our typical guy now. We are competing against the government & unions. This is the saddest work ethic I've seen my entire life.

As far as housing, we'll continue to have a housing shortage in CA because tons of people are buying rentals & don't sell the homes they lived in when they move to another. It's more lucrative to collect $4K rent a month & build equity. I have a good friend, who's a long time developer, who has over 400 houses, builds them & keeps them. A nephew & niece who buy one each year as their plan (have 10 now). Their business partner owns 100 homes. I'm surprised nobody talks about this being part of the shortage problem.
 
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Englewood

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I just ran the numbers for our house if we were to buy today with roughly the same down we put in. All in the payments would be 3x what we pay today.

Other than deaths, divorce etc I don’t see properties selling when they are so “cheap” to own.
I would be 341% more expensive to buy at todays prices.
Which is why we need the economy to take a shit with no bailout. People need to learn to produce again. Hell we just hired a 29 year old guy, 55 hr, 1 month vacation, brand new company truck, all the benefits & this is our typical guy now. We are competing against the government & unions. This is the saddest work ethic I've seen my entire life.

As far as housing, we'll continue to have a housing shortage in CA because tons of people are buying rentals & don't sell the homes they lived in when they move to another. It's more lucrative to rent & build equity. I have a good friend, who's a long time developer, who has over 400 houses, builds them & keeps them. A nephew & niece who buy one each year as their plan (have 10). Their business partner owns 100 homes. I'm surprised nobody talks about this being part of the shortage problem.
what type of work?
 

riverroyal

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I haven't spoke much but...we sold our house about 5 weeks ago. 20 day escrow. Over asking offers and gone in a day.
Moving into new home Thursday next week.

It has been less than enjoyable! Our realtors are good. But the rest of the process has been a heart attack in the making. The entire real estate, inspection, termite, blah blah is basically extortion.
More details after the smoke settles.

Good bye beach and close neighbors!
 

Orange Juice

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I haven't spoke much but...we sold our house about 5 weeks ago. 20 day escrow. Over asking offers and gone in a day.
Moving into new home Thursday next week.

It has been less than enjoyable! Our realtors are good. But the rest of the process has been a heart attack in the making. The entire real estate, inspection, termite, blah blah is basically extortion.
More details after the smoke settles.

Good bye beach and close neighbors!
I paid I think $300 to inspect a Pulte home I bought new during the walk through inspection. Nothing is ever supposed to be easy. If it is, you missed something. 😉. Pulte was not happy, and neither was I.
 

c_land

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Wrote an offer on this property for a client of mine. 20% down conventional loan at 1.8m on Friday when it was listed. It is currently in escrow for 200k above ask, cash offer with a 2 week close. They had 11 offers.



About 6% over what Zillow said it was worth in 2020? Doesn’t seem unreasonable for a 5,200 sqft house in a nice part of Rancho.
 
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