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For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

Albert

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Careful ….it’s a slippery slope 😳
 
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DrunkenSailor

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Wells Fargo says home prices will continue to rise for the next three years due to lack of supply. Interest rates may stop rising but are going to stay higher for longer.


The mortgage industry is in for a world of hurt. Anyone have any career suggestions?
 

EmpirE231

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What would cause this. as I'm not sure why? 60% of Canadians have adjustable mortgages?
Canada doesn’t do 30yr fixed mortgages. To my understanding it’s similar to a 30yr w/ balloon payment / balance due @ 5 or 10yr
 

JDKRXW

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What would cause this. as I'm not sure why? 60% of Canadians have adjustable mortgages?
Canadian mortgages have terms that can be locked in (ie 15,25, 30 yrs) but the rate isn't locked in for the length of the term. 5-7 years is pretty much standard - then you renegotiate the rate.
You can also go with a floating rate mortgage for these 5-7 years. This is why Canada's house prices are the highest in the world -- Joe Schmoe could get a mortgage for 1% so he'd buy a house way beyond what he could afford at normal interest rated (6-8%). In the next 2-3 years he going to have to update the rate on his million $ home and his interest portion of payment will go from 1% to 7.5 or 8%.
He could realistically go from $15k interest per yr to $75k.
 

Englewood

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Wells Fargo says home prices will continue to rise for the next three years due to lack of supply. Interest rates may stop rising but are going to stay higher for longer.


The mortgage industry is in for a world of hurt. Anyone have any career suggestions?
I was gonna post the same article. I believe it is very accurate. 80’s here we come.

I’d be shocked if we see 5% again.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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I was gonna post the same article. I believe it is very accurate. 80’s here we come.

I’d be shocked if we see 5% again.

I agree. All the hat holders on the sidelines will wait another decade for rates to drop back to the 3s.
 

DrunkenSailor

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The 80s cycle was partially driven by a lack of market liquidity that doesn't exist today. Banks were not allowed to invest in mbs back then. There is a huge demand for yield in the secondary market. That money will find s way to be distributed. Maybe it's the second mortgage market. Time will tell.
 

COCA COLA COWBOY

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Wells Fargo says home prices will continue to rise for the next three years due to lack of supply. Interest rates may stop rising but are going to stay higher for longer.


The mortgage industry is in for a world of hurt. Anyone have any career suggestions?

So I used to be that guy that used to believe all the data and use that data to predict the future, but I was in land development up until 2007. Back then I had a deal with Lennar where they were buying 2400 acres and put 40 million into the project stating that their data shows the market will just continue to go up, up and up because the baby boomers were going to retire and the data suggested that a large number of them would be retiring to SoCal. Then about 2008, they walked away from the project/deal and stated things had changed. Everyone uses data to support the outcome they want.

Home prices aren't going to plummet, but I think it is safe to look at what happened in the late 70's and early 80's to try and help see what may happen in the future. During the early 80's homes weren't sold, assumable or wrap around loans are what people went for.

Airbnb and VRBO is where we are seeing big changes. This market is flooded and owners are either going towards long term rentals or in some cases selling. Pending on the area, so are trying to rent out rooms instead to try and cover their monthly.

No matter what, the market would have to drop a huge amount to suck up all the equity people have and I don't see it happening. We will see a small amount of foreclosures and short sales, but not enough to impact the market.

Some areas will get hammered where we saw large amounts of people move to yet there was no industry to support those home prices. Austin is sinking like the titanic right now. Idaho, NC, Tenn. are all seeing some noticeable drops.
 

Done-it-again

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Canada doesn’t do 30yr fixed mortgages. To my understanding it’s similar to a 30yr w/ balloon payment / balance due @ 5 or 10yr
Canadian mortgages have terms that can be locked in (ie 15,25, 30 yrs) but the rate isn't locked in for the length of the term. 5-7 years is pretty much standard - then you renegotiate the rate.
You can also go with a floating rate mortgage for these 5-7 years. This is why Canada's house prices are the highest in the world -- Joe Schmoe could get a mortgage for 1% so he'd buy a house way beyond what he could afford at normal interest rated (6-8%). In the next 2-3 years he going to have to update the rate on his million $ home and his interest portion of payment will go from 1% to 7.5 or 8%.
He could realistically go from $15k interest per yr to $75k.

interesting, didn't know this. I know houses are supper pricy have, my mother is from Canada and still has family there.

Perhaps the price of homes are crazy priced due to the crafty lending. Just like what has happed here with supper low interest rates causing housing prices to jump more than usual. Now prices are high and rates are high and no one is going to move unless they have too, or have enough money that it doesn't matter.
 

EmpirE231

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interesting, didn't know this. I know houses are supper pricy have, my mother is from Canada and still has family there.

Perhaps the price of homes are crazy priced due to the crafty lending. Just like what has happed here with supper low interest rates causing housing prices to jump more than usual. Now prices are high and rates are high and no one is going to move unless they have too, or have enough money that it doesn't matter.
Yeah the problem there is they have to refi or pay off the balance / balloon payment. And with current rates…. A lot of peoples mortgages will be going way up, even if they stay put.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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How long until we start seeing 40yr loans as the new standard??

Next year?

FYI the $400k 30 year loan above at 8% is $2956 per month.

Same loan with 40 year term is $2780 per month.

That is just a difference of one days work at McDonalds @ minimum wage a month.

Mortgage houses will be pimping the 40 year terms hard. 😂
 
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evantwheeler

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Canadian mortgages have terms that can be locked in (ie 15,25, 30 yrs) but the rate isn't locked in for the length of the term.
Jeezus. What could go wrong!?! I love Canada, and most Canadians, having grown up listening to Canadian radio stations and spending the second half of my 20's living in Vancouver area, I really feel for you guys up there. It was stupid unaffordable back in 2010-2015 when I lived there, can't imagine how much worse its gotten since then....
 

EmpirE231

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How long until we start seeing 40yr loans as the new standard??
I remember this being discussed back in 06, but it seems like it never really caught on. The savings between the two, and the difference in rate made it not really pencil out.

Now if they introduce a 50yr.... some people will jump on it 🤣
 

JDKRXW

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Next year?

FYI the $400k 30 year loan above at 8% is $2956 per month.

Same loan with 40 year term is $2780 per month.

That is just a difference of one days work at McDonalds @ minimum wage a month.

Mortgage houses will be pimping the 40 year terms hard. 😂

Don't forget .... it's all about the total monthly payment. What it's going towards and length of time you'll be making it are irrelevant. 😄
 

HNL2LHC

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I remember this being discussed back in 06, but it seems like it never really caught on. The savings between the two, and the difference in rate made it not really pencil out.

Now if they introduce a 50yr.... some people will jump on it 🤣
Not bad might have to look into it. Pull some cash out, buy a few toys a new card and roll into a 40 year loan. Should be paid off right before my 100th birthday!!!
 

cofooter

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I remember this being discussed back in 06, but it seems like it never really caught on. The savings between the two, and the difference in rate made it not really pencil out.

Now if they introduce a 50yr.... some people will jump on it 🤣
If yore 60 why not!
 

regor

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Keeps getting better for realtors........................

1698781721513.jpeg


So while this may be a win for some consumers it's also a loss for a lot of small business and a big win for big corporations that definitely hate us.

The local real estate agent stands in the way of some of these corporations. Think Blackstone invested entities that intend to force regulation. The "commission" fees will be dramatically lower, but they will make just as much money off of you if not more by controlling the process and the market.


https://www.housingwire.com/article...-guilty-of-conspiring-to-inflate-commissions/

The defendants have been ordered to pay damages of $1.78 billion. Treble damages could result in the NAR and brokerages paying roughly $5.36 billion. It also opens the door to additional potential copycat lawsuits being filed in other states.

The jury reached its verdict after a little over two weeks of testimony from the plaintiffs and defendants. During their testimony, the home seller plaintiffs and their lead attorney Michael Ketchmark argued that despite the defendants having antitrust rules and regulations in place, the trade group and corporate brokerages knowingly violated their own rules in order to maintain high commission rates.

Judge Stephen Bough, who is overseeing the suit, still needs to issue his final judgement on the case, before the verdict is final. He has wide latitude in issuing injunctive relief.

In the worst case scenario for the defendants, Bough could ban the cooperative compensation rule nationally on the multiple listing services, which would prevent listing agents and home sellers from predetermining buyer agent commission rates. Listing agents would also be prohibited from sharing commissions with buyer agents, and buyer agent commission rates would not be published in the MLS.
 
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regor

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Under the current system, sellers pay their own agent a commission — typically 5% to 6% of a home’s selling price — which is in turn shared with the buyer’s agent. Over the course of the trial, plaintiffs’ attorneys argued this model has suppressed competition by making it difficult for buyers and sellers to negotiate for lower rates.

“NAR and corporate real-estate companies have had a stranglehold on real-estate commissions for too long,” plaintiffs’ lawyer Michael Ketchmark said outside of the courtroom.

The news sent real-estate brokerage stocks tumbling: Redfin and Zillow both plunged as much as 10% before recovering some losses. Traditiona broker Re/Max was down 3%.


1698793476202.jpeg
 

Cdog

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The whole commission lawsuit doesn’t make any sense to me. Commissions are 100% negotiable from the seller/broker. So where is the example of the price fixing conspiracy?

There is zero incentive for another agent to show the property if there is no compensation so what do they think this is accomplishing?
 

Orange Juice

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The whole commission lawsuit doesn’t make any sense to me. Commissions are 100% negotiable from the seller/broker. So where is the example of the price fixing conspiracy?

There is zero incentive for another agent to show the property if there is no compensation so what do they think this is accomplishing?

I think it has more to do with small real estate markets in rural farm towns.

I see it as more meat on the table for negotiation as buyer and seller. 😉
 

Cdog

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I think it has more to do with small real estate markets in rural farm towns.

I see it as more meat on the table for negotiation as buyer and seller. 😉
Well, the law firm is only going after the large brokerages. The ones that have money.

Meat on the table? Like under the table? Hidden from plain sight?
 

530RL

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The whole commission lawsuit doesn’t make any sense to me. Commissions are 100% negotiable from the seller/broker. So where is the example of the price fixing conspiracy?

There is zero incentive for another agent to show the property if there is no compensation so what do they think this is accomplishing?
It circles back to the closed MLS system which many have been trying to disrupt for a couple decades and have had some but not a lot of success.

If you want on MLS you gotta pay a selling commission. If you want a buyer, you gotta pay a buyers commission or as you say there is no incentive to bring the buyer. Only buying and selling realtors can “legally” access MLS by the contractual agreement which is the alleged collusion between buying and selling brokers.

This really boils down to MLS.
 

Cdog

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It circles back to the closed MLS system which many have been trying to disrupt for a couple decades and have had some but not a lot of success.

If you want on MLS you gotta pay a selling commission. If you want a buyer, you gotta pay a buyers commission or as you say there is no incentive to bring the buyer. Only buying and selling realtors can “legally” access MLS by the contractual agreement which is the alleged collusion between buying and selling brokers.

This really boils down to MLS.
I’ve not heard that the mls was involved in the current lawsuit in Missouri. Just Remax, Keller Williams & NAR. They are being accused of price fixing/collusion for charging compensation that shares with a buyers brokers. Essentially the objective is to eliminate buyer broker compensation as a sellers cost. Buyers will have to compensate their own agents moving forward.

I can’t speak for all mls systems but SoCal, Sandicor & AAR will allow you to input 0 for compensation.

It’s a sure fire way to eliminate any broker from showing it.
 

Englewood

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It circles back to the closed MLS system which many have been trying to disrupt for a couple decades and have had some but not a lot of success.

If you want on MLS you gotta pay a selling commission. If you want a buyer, you gotta pay a buyers commission or as you say there is no incentive to bring the buyer. Only buying and selling realtors can “legally” access MLS by the contractual agreement which is the alleged collusion between buying and selling brokers.

This really boils down to MLS.
There are 2 possible outcomes.

1. All MLS’ are required to allow $0 buyer agent compensation. Most do this already.

2. Splitting commission with a buyers agent will be outlawed. This would cause many years of lawsuits. I don’t see this happening.

The MLS and local associations/NAR are the modern day mob. They are extortionists and have shaken me down many times for thousands of dollars. I would love nothing more than to watch them implode.

This decision will have little impact on the industry. If anything, it will make it more expensive for a buyer as they could be forced to now pay their agent the commission a seller would normally pay. However, this is very unlikely and would be in appellate courts for years.

Like most lawsuits, the only ones who benefit from this are the attorneys.
 
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530RL

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I’ve not heard that the mls was involved in the current lawsuit in Missouri. Just Remax, Keller Williams & NAR. They are being accused of price fixing/collusion for charging compensation that shares with a buyers brokers. Essentially the objective is to eliminate buyer broker compensation as a sellers cost. Buyers will have to compensate their own agents moving forward.

I can’t speak for all mls systems but SoCal, Sandicor & AAR will allow you to input 0 for compensation.

It’s a sure fire way to eliminate any broker from showing it.
MLS and the mandate to pay both sides of the commission in order to use it are the crux of the conspiracy theory. Here is an updated article that lays out the legal theory which just won.

 

PaPaG

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My wife has had her broker licenses in both Cali and NV for a long while now because she handles all our purchases or sales in the past, also going to get her AZ Brokers lic just in case we decide to sell or buy in AZ, and when ever we have bought or sold a property in Cali or NV we have always been able to negotiate the 6% commish usually down to 4% / 2% each side without issue. I have only seen a few that were not willing to negotiate.
 

Cdog

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Having paid for NAR's BS for the last 22 years I'll be the first to say as trade group advocate they suck. They botched online protection of the MLS in conjunction with ASSOC of Realtors. The barrier of entry is way to low and the constant BS certificate training is absolutely garbage.

I'm sure many want to celebrate that this sounds like a kick in the nuts to the whole Realtor profession but I can assure you if this un ties the seller offering/covering buyers side compensation to another licensed broker expect complete havoc in the industry until solutions are formed to put it back the way it worked prior. Without an industry standards and practices policy with licensed professionals you're looking at craigslist and FB marketplace transactions. Crazy un hinged people trying to sling a deal. You only have to spend a couple of days working with the public to know 87% are not able to negotiate their way out of a wet paper bag. Let alone act professionally. You'll be expected to let Bob and his brother in your home to inspect it for 4-5 hours un supervised prior to purchase? LMFAO!

As I read, listen and understand the gotcha in the suit was the fact that the sellers offer a let's say 6% compensation that gets split or shared to some extent with the buyers side representation. The sellers in the suit feel they shouldn't have to pay that "buyer rep" compensation and it should be the buyers responsibility. I can understand that. However it's a completely voluntary transaction and sellers/consumers are free to do FSBO's or bob's online listings. So how does operating under the industry standards and practices violate anything in this case. If you don't like the deal go do something else.

If I can paraphrase Winston Churchill

The best argument against FSBO is a five-minute conversation with the average Seller.
 

Cdog

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View attachment 1296816
From circa 1880’s. This is how real estate was purchased in the US. Looks like nothing has changed in Canada. 😉


I need a story board graph to start to attempt to make sense of the points you try to make. Rural markets? Meat on the table? Now Canada?

Are you Rain Man?
 

530RL

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Having paid for NAR's BS for the last 22 years I'll be the first to say as trade group advocate they suck. They botched online protection of the MLS in conjunction with ASSOC of Realtors. The barrier of entry is way to low and the constant BS certificate training is absolutely garbage.

I'm sure many want to celebrate that this sounds like a kick in the nuts to the whole Realtor profession but I can assure you if this un ties the seller offering/covering buyers side compensation to another licensed broker expect complete havoc in the industry until solutions are formed to put it back the way it worked prior. Without an industry standards and practices policy with licensed professionals you're looking at craigslist and FB marketplace transactions. Crazy un hinged people trying to sling a deal. You only have to spend a couple of days working with the public to know 87% are not able to negotiate their way out of a wet paper bag. Let alone act professionally. You'll be expected to let Bob and his brother in your home to inspect it for 4-5 hours un supervised prior to purchase? LMFAO!

As I read, listen and understand the gotcha in the suit was the fact that the sellers offer a let's say 6% compensation that gets split or shared to some extent with the buyers side representation. The sellers in the suit feel they shouldn't have to pay that "buyer rep" compensation and it should be the buyers responsibility. I can understand that. However it's a completely voluntary transaction and sellers/consumers are free to do FSBO's or bob's online listings. So how does operating under the industry standards and practices violate anything in this case. If you don't like the deal go do something else.

If I can paraphrase Winston Churchill

The best argument against FSBO is a five-minute conversation with the average Seller.

The argument by the plaintiff is that a FSBO has a distinct disadvantage today as it can not get its data/listing into the MLS without agreeing to pay a commission to both buyer and seller. And a non-represented buyer is at a distinct disadvantage as it can not find out what is in the MLS system, without working with an agent who has access. And agents have a financial incentive to prefer showing their buyers things on the MLS as opposed to a FSBO property, as then they know they get paid by the seller.

Therefore, the plaintiffs theory is that sellers are forced to pay both sides of the transaction and forced into a contract with an agent because of the power of the MLS to control the data and who can have direct access to the data.

Beats me, but it would appear in this case the plaintiff was more persuasive.
 

Cdog

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The argument by the plaintiff is that a FSBO has a distinct disadvantage today as it can not get its data/listing into the MLS without agreeing to pay a commission to both buyer and seller. And a non-represented buyer is at a distinct disadvantage as it can not find out what is in the MLS system, without working with an agent who has access. And agents have a financial incentive to prefer showing their buyers things on the MLS as opposed to a FSBO property, as then they know they get paid by the seller.

Therefore, the plaintiffs theory is that sellers are forced to pay both sides of the transaction and forced into a contract with an agent because of the power of the MLS to control the data and who can have direct access to the data.

Beats me, but it would appear in this case the plaintiff was more persuasive.

It doesn't make any sense. You cant force somebody with free will to do a job for less than they are willing to accept.

Imagine a world where you get access to things others built and invested in without paying for them. WTF???

Did they have to go to Missouri to find a jury stupid enough to support this claim?
 

530RL

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It doesn't make any sense. You cant force somebody with free will to do a job for less than they are willing to accept.

Imagine a world where you get access to things others built and invested in without paying for them. WTF???

Did they have to go to Missouri to find a jury stupid enough to support this claim?
I agree with your point. But they dont have to go to Missouri to find that, you can go anywhere in America.

The legal conundrum is that the MLS is not owned by a company that buys and compiles data and charges people to use it, it is a consortium of members of an association that pool their data and only allow fellow members to use that data under the condition that they follow their rules.

And because the rules do not allow access to be available to those outside of their group, it gets construed as a conspiracy by the group to keep commission rates high by controlling and monopolizing the listing data only within eligible NAR members making "fair" competition "impossible". Which quite honestly is the whole point of MLS, to prevent listing data from being widely disseminated keeping fees high and barriers to entry high, like all businesses wish to do.........

If it was one agent firm that had a proprietary system competing against another agent firm or agent firms proprietary system(s), that would be legal. But because it is all firms in the industry compiling the data for their use solely and keeping sellers and buyers from using it, it is deemed a conspiracy by the industry against the consumer.

The prospective solution is fairly interesting. For if MLS is made available for a fee to anyone, not just NAR members, it will be interesting what happens to commissions. I suspect that is the true goal of the plaintiffs, wide dissemination of all listing data, not past damages.
 
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Englewood

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I agree with your point. But they dont have to go to Missouri to find that, you can go anywhere in America.

The legal conundrum is that the MLS is not owned by a company that buys and compiles data and charges people to use it, it is a consortium of members of an association that pool their data and only allow fellow members to use that data under the condition that they follow their rules.

And because the rules do not allow access to be available to those outside of their group, it gets construed as a conspiracy by the group to keep commission rates high by controlling and monopolizing the listing data only within eligible NAR members making "fair" competition "impossible". Which quite honestly is the whole point of MLS, to prevent listing data from being widely disseminated keeping fees high and barriers to entry high, like all businesses wish to do.........

If it was one agent firm that had a proprietary system competing against another agent firm or agent firms proprietary system(s), that would be legal. But because it is all firms in the industry compiling the data for their use solely and keeping sellers and buyers from using it, it is deemed a conspiracy by the industry against the consumer.

The prospective solution is fairly interesting. For if MLS is made available for a fee to anyone, not just NAR members, it will be interesting what happens to commissions. I suspect that is the true goal of the plaintiffs, wide dissemination of all listing data, not past damages.
The MLS has been available to everyone for years. Zillow and millions of other sites have a direct feed. A FSBO can list their home on the MLS for $199 through a listing service.

I would love to see the public conduct real estate transactions. It will be a shit show beyond anything we’ve ever seen 😂😂😂. I say give ‘em access. I could absolutely DESTROY a FSBO if I wanted to (wouldn’t, just saying 99.99% lack the needed knowledge).

The whole buyer broker compensation issue is a joke. Let the free market prevail. If people want access and to list their homes for $0 commission, go right ahead. Don’t be surprised when agents won’t show it. They need to make a living.
 
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Cdog

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The MLS has been available to everyone for years. Zillow and millions of other sites have a direct feed. A FSBO can list their home on the MLS for $199 through a listing service.

I would love to see the public conduct real estate transactions. It will be a shit show beyond anything we’ve ever seen 😂😂😂. I say give ‘em access. I could absolutely DESTROY a FSBO if I wanted to (wouldn’t, just saying 99.99% lack the needed knowledge).

The whole buyer broker compensation issue is a joke. Let the free market prevail. If people want access and to list their homes for $0 commission, go right ahead. Don’t be surprised when agents won’t show it. They need to make a living.
Thanks for posting that. I’ve been too busy to make a response but you nailed it.

The sad part about dealing with the public is learning how few well adjusted normal people there are. You put money between what they have and what they want and the horns come out.
 

Orange Juice

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Thanks for posting that. I’ve been too busy to make a response but you nailed it.

The sad part about dealing with the public is learning how few well adjusted normal people there are. You put money between what they have and what they want and the horns come out.
The only reason I use a realtor, is so I can be an idiot during the negotiations. I get my money’s worth. 😁
 

Runs2rch

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Thanks for posting that. I’ve been too busy to make a response but you nailed it.

The sad part about dealing with the public is learning how few well adjusted normal people there are. You put money between what they have and what they want and the horns come out.
Agree 100 percent.

" It's just business nothing personal"

Just tell me your a piece of shit with this line. After you did everything in your power to make their transaction possible.
 

OldSchoolBoats

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Listening to a podcast right now and check this number. The average housing payment today is 120% higher than what it was 2.5 years ago.

Great episode and an interesting theory on FED rate hikes and cash out refinances too.

 
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