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For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

JL95

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There's a sucker born every minute. And this week it's me. Closed on a 8% second mortgage refi from the original 4.5% I had on it. Primary is 2.85% though.

The new loan is 100k of interest on 140k principal over the life of it lmao. Let's hope I can refi it in the next few years. No toys either just boring debt sadly.
 

jet496

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There's a sucker born every minute. And this week it's me. Closed on a 8% second mortgage refi from the original 4.5% I had on it. Primary is 2.85% though.

The new loan is 100k of interest on 140k principal over the life of it lmao. Let's hope I can refi it in the next few years. No toys either just boring debt sadly.
I've always wondered how they get away with charging so much interest up front. Literally paying 50%, maybe more, on a payment. The banks collect that huge interest & then most people refi or sale so it starts all over again. I say it's a scam. I pay a house off as quick as possible now.
 

cofooter

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I've always wondered how they get away with charging so much interest up front. Literally paying 50%, maybe more, on a payment. The banks collect that huge interest & then most people refi or sale so it starts all over again. I say it's a scam. I pay a house off as quick as possible now.
Not a scam, just simple amortization......
 

Sportin' Wood

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Ran into an old friend that owns a manufacturing business in California last night. I was not surprised by his comments when I asked him how his business was doing. I'll paraphrase. Business is good except:

  • My employees are the working poor after paying for rent, insurance, food, cars, and iPhones.
  • I can't sustain the salary increases to give them a decent life.
  • California is bleeding me dry.
  • You have no idea how bad it has gotten living there.
He wholeheartedly echoed my opinions I posted yesterday that any businesses that are not run well with cash reserves and good credit ratings are gonna get pounded into submission.

My company's third-quarter earnings report came out this morning. Record Sales-Profit and Cash.

This is seems like a big reset is the works and the rich are going to get richer. The hurdles to stay in the middle class are getting taller.
 

530RL

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Ran into an old friend that owns a manufacturing business in California last night. I was not surprised by his comments when I asked him how his business was doing. I'll paraphrase. Business is good except:

  • My employees are the working poor after paying for rent, insurance, food, cars, and iPhones.
  • I can't sustain the salary increases to give them a decent life.
  • California is bleeding me dry.
  • You have no idea how bad it has gotten living there.
He wholeheartedly echoed my opinions I posted yesterday that any businesses that are not run well with cash reserves and good credit ratings are gonna get pounded into submission.

My company's third-quarter earnings report came out this morning. Record Sales-Profit and Cash.

This is seems like a big reset is the works and the rich are going to get richer. The hurdles to stay in the middle class are getting taller.
My personal experience is there is more opportunity today for the young generation than there ever was in my time.

And that is due to the lack of competition in that generation for those willing to do what it takes to succeed in a competitive system.
 

Hammer

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I don't know how it was done and can only assume because the investor had cash. But the 10k sq ft commercial industrial building next to me was taken for a 30% off of listing. Was listed for $350sq ft and sold for $245 wish I would have known. But I don't have that kind of cash available and would need to go a SBA route
It would probably behoove me to get an SBA loan for when that time comes. By the time the loan funds and approves, the opportunity may be gone.
 

petie6464

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With the insanity throughout the world and right here at home combined with an election year right around the corner; I see next year being a challenge probably to surpass past election years stalls.
 

JL95

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Ran into an old friend that owns a manufacturing business in California last night. I was not surprised by his comments when I asked him how his business was doing. I'll paraphrase. Business is good except:

  • My employees are the working poor after paying for rent, insurance, food, cars, and iPhones.
  • I can't sustain the salary increases to give them a decent life.
  • California is bleeding me dry.
  • You have no idea how bad it has gotten living there.
He wholeheartedly echoed my opinions I posted yesterday that any businesses that are not run well with cash reserves and good credit ratings are gonna get pounded into submission.

My company's third-quarter earnings report came out this morning. Record Sales-Profit and Cash.

This is seems like a big reset is the works and the rich are going to get richer. The hurdles to stay in the middle class are getting taller.
Your friend sounds like a decent business owner. Many hardly consider the first bullet point lmao.
 

Done-it-again

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It would probably behoove me to get an SBA loan for when that time comes. By the time the loan funds and approves, the opportunity may be gone.
Unfortunately it doesn't work that way. You need to find the building first so the SBA can do their diligence on it. It kind of sucks and it also take 60+ plus days to close so the seller needs to be aware and sometimes they don't want to deal with it. What you can do is get a bank letter that issues SBA loans for an amount they believe you would be accepted for. Its a tier under a pre approval letter that you would use to buy a house.

You also would need to occupy the building and cannot use it for an investment.
 

Sportin' Wood

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It would probably behoove me to get an SBA loan for when that time comes. By the time the loan funds and approves, the opportunity may be gone.
Read the fine print on any SBA loan. I took an SBA loan in the mid-2000s, and when the crash happened, that SBA loan was the biggest PITA of all the debt I had to settle. I would encourage not doing a PG if possible. I'm guessing there are smarter people than me on this forum in regard to SBA loans, but I would be hard-pressed ever to take out another one. 100% I would not PG any significant commercial debt outside of using it as a tool to build commercial credit with a very specific term and cash reserves to cover it.

It is a very quick way to pierce your corporate veil.

PG = Personal Guarantee
What is a personal guarantee? A personal guarantee is a legal promise. By signing a contract with this provision, you agree that you will be personally responsible for the business's debts if the loan goes into default. SBA loans require personal guarantees, as do many loans from online and traditional lenders
 

Done-it-again

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Read the fine print on any SBA loan. I took an SBA loan in the mid-2000s, and when the crash happened, that SBA loan was the biggest PITA of all the debt I had to settle. I would encourage not doing a PG if possible. I'm guessing there are smarter people than me on this forum in regard to SBA loans, but I would be hard-pressed ever to take out another one. 100% I would not PG any significant commercial debt outside of using it as a tool to build commercial credit with a very specific term and cash reserves to cover it.

It is a very quick way to pierce your corporate veil.

PG = Personal Guarantee
What is a personal guarantee? A personal guarantee is a legal promise. By signing a contract with this provision, you agree that you will be personally responsible for the business's debts if the loan goes into default. SBA loans require personal guarantees, as do many loans from online and traditional lenders
Depending if its a LLC business, you are PG most everything you do... So you make sure you know what your are signing.
 

Hammer

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Read the fine print on any SBA loan. I took an SBA loan in the mid-2000s, and when the crash happened, that SBA loan was the biggest PITA of all the debt I had to settle. I would encourage not doing a PG if possible. I'm guessing there are smarter people than me on this forum in regard to SBA loans, but I would be hard-pressed ever to take out another one. 100% I would not PG any significant commercial debt outside of using it as a tool to build commercial credit with a very specific term and cash reserves to cover it.

It is a very quick way to pierce your corporate veil.

PG = Personal Guarantee
What is a personal guarantee? A personal guarantee is a legal promise. By signing a contract with this provision, you agree that you will be personally responsible for the business's debts if the loan goes into default. SBA loans require personal guarantees, as do many loans from online and traditional lenders
The entire point of having a corporation is when you default and file BK, you liquidate the business and start a new one all while you are still living large and the wife is driving a G Wagon and getting her botox injections... 🤣

rinse and repeat....

I guess I need to rethink the SBA loan strategy.....
 

Done-it-again

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The entire point of having a corporation is when you default and file BK, you liquidate the business and start a new one all while you are still living large and the wife is driving a G Wagon and getting her botox injections... 🤣

rinse and repeat....

I guess I need to rethink the SBA loan strategy.....
ha ha ha..... That's the new MBA degree...
 

Hammer

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Ran into an old friend that owns a manufacturing business in California last night. I was not surprised by his comments when I asked him how his business was doing. I'll paraphrase. Business is good except:

  • My employees are the working poor after paying for rent, insurance, food, cars, and iPhones.
  • I can't sustain the salary increases to give them a decent life.
  • California is bleeding me dry.
  • You have no idea how bad it has gotten living there.
He wholeheartedly echoed my opinions I posted yesterday that any businesses that are not run well with cash reserves and good credit ratings are gonna get pounded into submission.

My company's third-quarter earnings report came out this morning. Record Sales-Profit and Cash.

This is seems like a big reset is the works and the rich are going to get richer. The hurdles to stay in the middle class are getting taller.
It doesn't help when Californians vote for $20.00/hr minimum wage. A general laborer used to make $18.00/HR and that was good. Now we have to give them $25.00- $30.00/HR and a company truck just to keep them around( We are a Commercial GC). We aren't talking SKILLED LABOR either, this is a mid 20 year old guy that needs to be taught everything.

What the part time fast food guy doesn't realize is he didn't get a raise because your vote just upped the cost of living, you created inflation by making more money to not have a skilled job. All your boss did is raise the cost of the goods you provide in order to keep you employed and keep the business open. Fast food will be fully automated in 5 years I bet. touch screens are already in the lobby to keep overhead down... Supermarkets and retail already have self checkout..

This country needs skilled labor.

Clients want to know why costs are rising 30%. Are margins aren't rising either, they are actually dropping.

I see projects going from full build out to no permits and just paint and patch back the carpet. Our clients are all publicly traded companies that typically need to spend for the tax breaks. Not the last three quarters though...
 
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hallett21

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It doesn't help when Californians vote for $20.00/hr minimum wage. A general laborer used to make $18.00/HR and that was good. Now we have to give them $25.00 $30.00/HR and a company truck just to keep them around( We are a Commercial GC). We aren't talking SKILLED LABOR either, this is a mid 20 year old guy that needs to be taught everything. Clients want to know why costs are rising 30%. Are margins aren't rising either, they are actually dropping.

I see projects going from full build out to no permits and just paint and patch back the carpet. Our clients are all publicly traded companies that typically need to spend for the tax breaks. Not the last three quarters though...
A sheet of drywall used to be $9 lol. After you factor in labor I’d bet your costs are 80%+

What’s Tbar going for these days?
 

Englewood

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I don't know how it was done and can only assume because the investor had cash. But the 10k sq ft commercial industrial building next to me was taken for a 30% off of listing. Was listed for $350sq ft and sold for $245 wish I would have known. But I don't have that kind of cash available and would need to go a SBA route
This is because it is extremely challenging for the “Average Joe” to purchase a commercial building. It requires a large amount down, which is way more than most people could ever accumulate. By the time an SBA loan funds it will be long gone.

It’s a tough sector to get into.

The best option is seller finance if the seller can swing it.

Keep in mind a commercial blood-bath is coming.
 

Done-it-again

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This is because it is extremely challenging for the “Average Joe” to purchase a commercial building. It requires a large amount down, which is way more than most people could ever accumulate. By the time an SBA loan funds it will be long gone.

It’s a tough sector to get into.

The best option is seller finance if the seller can swing it.

Keep in mind a commercial blood-bath is coming.
I'm 100% in this situation and been trying to find a place were I know my yearly building cost for the next 30yrs. . We have been renting for a long time and its been cheap, like real cheap. But that is all changing now the last 3 years it to goes up 2k month every year, till market value.

I keep hearing this commercial blood-bath that is coming. But I don't see it for the industrial buildings much and mostly for office stuff that is sitting empty.
Look around for a 15k sq ft light industrial building, they are binging in stoopid money and keep building new ones at 100k-1mil sq ft.
 

hallett21

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I'm 100% in this situation and been trying to find a place were I know my yearly building cost for the next 30yrs. . We have been renting for a long time and its been cheap, like real cheap. But that is all changing now the last 3 years it to goes up 2k month every year, till market value.

I keep hearing this commercial blood-bath that is coming. But I don't see it for the industrial buildings much and mostly for office stuff that is sitting empty.
Look around for a 15k sq ft light industrial building, they are binging in stoopid money and keep building new ones at 100k-1mil sq ft.
Industrial is through the roof. My brother can’t get buyers/tenants into buildings because they’re expecting 50% less than current costs.
 

77charger

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Well..........just got a call from one of my past clients this afternoon. Got him into his first house in 2016 and refinanced him a couple times since. He wants to buy an investment property for his daughter instead of doing a college savings account. Also is sending me a referral from his friend who is an ER nurse looking to buy and doesn't have an LO. Even when things look bleak, just take a drive and look at all the people and all the houses. There are loans and RE clients everywhere........

I don't know what I am trying to say, but for the mortgage/RE peeps in here, stay in front of your database!!! It is your ticket to survival. Also keep a good mindset!!

I just went to a seminar today and a speaker talked about database strategies and this one is solid!!! 26 letters in the alphabet and 52 weeks in a year. Call all your A's for a week, B's for a week......etc. You can touch them twice a year. Some of you will be hearing from me soon, just to shoot the shit and say hello 😉😁
Got a friend in our desert group who does loans for a while he was working a lot and skipping trips for work. He went through 08 and saw it slow. He said a few years ago it can slow anytime but kept pushing hard stacking the money. Said when it does slow he will then have the time and money.

He would tell the younger ones getting into the loan biz at his office there will be slow times prepare if you could instead they alll said not in these days etc most spent good said in last year some were payed off.

I was in construction kind of same deal there are busy waves and slow times through the year I took all the ot I could work Saturday’s if I wasn’t going anywhere that weekend.atleast these days I’m in a different position with alot less payments and a 650 dollar house payment.
 
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EmpirE231

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Got a friend in our desert group who does loans for a while he was working a lot and skipping trips for work. He went through 08 and saw it slow. He said a few years ago it can slow anytime but kept pushing hard stacking the money. Said when it does slow he will then have the time and money.

He would tell the younger ones getting into the mon biz at his office there will be slow times prepare if you could instead they alll said not in these days etc most spent good said in last year some were payed off.

I was in construction kind of same deal there are busy waves and slow times through the year I took all the ot I could work Saturday’s if I wasn’t going anywhere that weekend.atleast these days I’m in a different position with alot less payments and a 650 dollar house payment.
$650 house payment!! are you over 80? lol
 

Hammer

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Got a friend in our desert group who does loans for a while he was working a lot and skipping trips for work. He went through 08 and saw it slow. He said a few years ago it can slow anytime but kept pushing hard stacking the money. Said when it does slow he will then have the time and money.

He would tell the younger ones getting into the mon biz at his office there will be slow times prepare if you could instead they alll said not in these days etc most spent good said in last year some were payed off.

I was in construction kind of same deal there are busy waves and slow times through the year I took all the ot I could work Saturday’s if I wasn’t going anywhere that weekend.atleast these days I’m in a different position with alot less payments and a 650 dollar house payment.
I wish I would have saved the extra cash I made on prevailing wage jobs back In the day. My old man said save the money, I decided to invest in strippers and bar tenders college funds instead 😂🤷‍♂️
 

77charger

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$650 house payment!! are you over 80? lol
Na took the equity from house in so cal bought house in az put large down
Payment with a small loan. It’s actually 450 but need to add taxes and ins. 😱

Plus I dont buy a lot of new toys still have an older boat and basic sand toys. I do have many hobbies though. Not the best of everything but make the best of it all.

I’m only 50 I’d be happy to make 80 though. 🤣
 

EmpirE231

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Na took the equity from house in so cal bought house in az put large down
Payment with a small loan. It’s actually 450 but need to add taxes and ins. 😱

Plus I dont buy a lot of new toys still ah e an older boat and basic sand toys. I do have many hobbies though. Not the best of everything but make the best of it all.

I’m only 50 I’d be happy to make 80 though. 🤣
That's the way to do it!

I was about to say, my taxes and insurance alone are over $650 per month... and I bought at what most would consider a good time lol.

Good for you! best way to weather any financial storm is low overhead.... at least that's my opinion.
 

hallett21

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Can someone explain why ARMS are not very attractive today?

I remember them being 1-2% less than a fixed rate back in the day. Looks like they are only 0.75% better than a fixed rate.

Are they being priced this way because banks think rates will come down?
 

77charger

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That's the way to do it!

I was about to say, my taxes and insurance alone are over $650 per month... and I bought at what most would consider a good time lol.

Good for you! best way to weather any financial storm is low overhead.... at least that's my opinion.
Bought first house in 2000 Fullerton 190k. Sold in 2020 585k. Could have been better off but wife wanted to refi twice 🙈🤷‍♂️ But still ahead.

Right now I work part time week on week off love it. Wife is full time any minimum wage job will float us not really worried

Now if we still lived in so cal I’d be in trouble but when we first moved here I could work a week take two off.todays dollar like bhc Vic said doesn’t go far and I’ll back that up.
 

Orange Juice

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I'm 100% in this situation and been trying to find a place were I know my yearly building cost for the next 30yrs. . We have been renting for a long time and its been cheap, like real cheap. But that is all changing now the last 3 years it to goes up 2k month every year, till market value.

I keep hearing this commercial blood-bath that is coming. But I don't see it for the industrial buildings much and mostly for office stuff that is sitting empty.
Look around for a 15k sq ft light industrial building, they are binging in stoopid money and keep building new ones at 100k-1mil sq ft.

Location Location Location.

This looks reasonable.

 

Orange Juice

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Hard to determine which ones the home? haha

It looks like a great place to hide from the world. I think it has at least 50 motor homes storage spots, and a shop in the back to make warranty repairs. Looks like a cheap entry point, if you can generate cash flow. $280k
 

jet496

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Not a scam, just simple amortization......
Call it what you like it's still a scam. I realize it's an accepted practice that nobody questions but that's the scam. Peeps are easily brainwashed.

If I'm paying 4% for a loan, I want to pay 4% as I go. Just sayin'.
 

cofooter

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Call it what you like it's still a scam. I realize it's an accepted practice that nobody questions but that's the scam. Peeps are easily brainwashed.

If I'm paying 4% for a loan, I want to pay 4% as I go. Just sayin'.
???? Go to any bank in the universe and its the same. People want return on their investment. When you sign a loan they make you sign the amortization schedule as well. Either take the loan, go to your loan shark, or walk away. Or better yet, save some money and become a lender. 🤣 Its not that hard!🤣
 

mesquito_creek

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???? Go to any bank in the universe and its the same. People want return on their investment. When you sign a loan they make you sign the amortization schedule as well. Either take the loan, go to your loan shark, or walk away. Or better yet, save some money and become a lender. 🤣 Its not that hard!🤣
Compounding interest = good
Amortized interest payments = bad
 

DrunkenSailor

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While I agree that their are issues with commercial debt I do not agree with the article that this is what's causing the massive deposit flight. People aren't just taking money out of banks and putting it under their mattress they are spending it. As inflation continues and corporate profitability drops we will see more "deposit flight" but it will have nothing to do with fears about the banking industry and everything to do with the actual shape of the economy. Our country is rapidly losing the ability to save.
 

jet496

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???? Go to any bank in the universe and its the same. People want return on their investment. When you sign a loan they make you sign the amortization schedule as well. Either take the loan, go to your loan shark, or walk away. Or better yet, save some money and become a lender. 🤣 Its not that hard!🤣
No shit it's not that hard. You miss my point so follow the herd my friend, blindly. I was just saying something that I see as ridiculous but because it's accepted & not questioned it's okay LOL.

Or better yet, just pay cash & leave the lender out.
 
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cofooter

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While I agree that their are issues with commercial debt I do not agree with the article that this is what's causing the massive deposit flight. People aren't just taking money out of banks and putting it under their mattress they are spending it. As inflation continues and corporate profitability drops we will see more "deposit flight" but it will have nothing to do with fears about the banking industry and everything to do with the actual shape of the economy. Our country is rapidly losing the ability to save.
0.6% - seems like a small number. Maybe pouring it into bonds, CD's etc
 

Racer56

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Who wants to be my nextdoor neighbor?

 

LargeOrangeFont

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I haven't spoke much but...we sold our house about 5 weeks ago. 20 day escrow. Over asking offers and gone in a day.
Moving into new home Thursday next week.

It has been less than enjoyable! Our realtors are good. But the rest of the process has been a heart attack in the making. The entire real estate, inspection, termite, blah blah is basically extortion.
More details after the smoke settles.

Good bye beach and close neighbors!
See you soon
 

hallett21

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C_J_J_C

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Who wants to be my nextdoor neighbor?

If it sells at full price how fast will you be listing?
 

Sportin' Wood

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Does anyone know when Carmagedon is expected to start? I heard that it was coming many months ago and still no signs of the used car market glut. I'd like to buy a truck next year.
 

Racer56

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If it sells at full price how fast will you be listing?
We have been having the conversation about that all week since the listing came up Monday. My realtor in Havasu already called me about listing my house. It would be a smart financial decision and I would be able to retire.

I've been putting my heart and soul into my dream home and I'm not sure I could sell it. If I was having a better year business wise, I would buy another lot and build a spec house before the land prices go through the roof.
 

Boatymcboatface

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Does anyone know when Carmagedon is expected to start? I heard that it was coming many months ago and still no signs of the used car market glut. I'd like to buy a truck next year.
I’ve been watching a few cars, boats, and motorhomes ones that would’ve sold in less than a day a couple months ago. They’ve all had a couple price drops and haven’t sold.

Also if you’re in the market for a good low miles KTM 500 exc you should be able to pick one up for half what people paid during Covid. I’ve already seen a few ads that say they’ll sell for less than they owe and will meet you at the bank to pay the difference so you can get the title. Just a sign of things to come in a lot of different markets.
 

sirbob

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Havasu down 87% in sales according to this article about second homes…

FWIW

Sales of US vacation homes fall by 75%, figures show


https://mol.im/a/12688777


1698694732868.png
 
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