For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[zhandfull]

How’s the short term rentals in Havasu. I closed on a place back in July. I haven’t seen my neighbor or anybody else for that matter next door since. Come to find out it’s a short term rental.

 

[2Driver]

When friends come to stay from out of town they have a great place to stay down the street!

View attachment 1281074 View attachment 1281075

I know someone that stayed there, they said it was intense.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I know someone that stayed there, they said it was intense.

Contact high from all the peyote smoke?

 

[arch stanton]

Hey Dave I like the different perspectives of all the inmates, even among the so called professionals that post on investment media are not unanimous on what the end result will be or what will cause a down turn in the housing market or the the stock market.

The thing I think that gets missed is location will greatly affect values in real-estate and one’s perspective the other thing not discussed is the person posting financial situation,you have people hear from a very diversified wealth positions some in rental apartments storing a 30 year old boat outside to guys with 3 boat’s worth more than a million stored inside and climate controlled.
When a wealthy person gives his opinion on what he’s investing in like houses and flips it in a few months it’s a great perspective on what can be done but may not be what a first time buyer or new investor should be doing.
So for me I will acknowledge as a business owner i make a good net profit at the size I am I have decided not to expand at this time the reason is if i expanded say 20 percent and netted the same percentage I currently do would It change my financial situation well not really I would have more money to invest but I could retire now but if I expand and things do slow down I would have to come out of pocket cash to cover the costs at some point work would pick back up, but I have decided to expand at later time after i am more confident in what will happen in construction in my area.
I will not insist that someone should follow my lead or they are wrong hell I know i could be wrong but it’s a safe position for me and I’m on conservative financial side and sleep well knowing more money will not make me happier, I work because I chose to and enjoy the game

 

[Racer56]

Problem is there is actually more houses on the market in Havasu month to month.. but the prices are increasing as well?

I think a lot of these guys are just shooting for the moon and hoping to get it. Days on market is increasing month after month as well... as well as median rent in LHC.

RD

There are 3 or 4 Riviera spec houses nearing completion. I'm really curious to see what they get listed for and how long it will take to sell them. I have a feeling that the builder's are going to, as you say "Shoot for the Moon".

 

[RiverDave]

If i remember right you do real estate? When you say turning do you mean inventory is sitting longer? Or....

I looked at a house in north scottsdale 2 weeks ago and the agent said it was the first short sale she has seen in 10 years. Not sure if that indicates anything but its interesting.

My wife and I own one of the more successful real estate teams in Havasu. I don’t do real estate personally.. I got a license and did a few transactions and it just isn’t “me.”

I do a lot of the marketing for their listings with our in house video guy. We use the same guys that shoot the boats etc to shoot the houses.

I don’t follow the market as close as some, but I sit in on most of our team meetings on Monday at noon.

We also have agents in Wrightwood and other socal areas.

This was the selfie from this mondays meeting. It was at the end so the zoom part of the meeting with the California and bullhead groups had already ended.

 

[RiverDave]

This is a seriously bad ass house on the water that I went and shot with our film guy tonight.. it’s on the water by the needles bridge. Owner is selling and picking up 2 lots in “the sands” which is the new development we are representing with white sand beaches on the water..

I would live here..

The fun part is seeing some of these bad ass houses, and other houses and seeing what the pros and cons of them are etc..



RD

 

[bonesfab]

This is a seriously bad ass house on the water that I went and shot with our film guy tonight.. it’s on the water by the needles bridge. Owner is selling and picking up 2 lots in “the sands” which is the new development we are representing with white sand beaches on the water..

I would live here..

The fun part is seeing some of these bad ass houses, and other houses and seeing what the pros and cons of them are etc..



RD View attachment 1282690 View attachment 1282691 View attachment 1282692 View attachment 1282693 View attachment 1282694 View attachment 1282695 View attachment 1282696 View attachment 1282697 View attachment 1282698 View attachment 1282699 View attachment 1282700 View attachment 1282701 View attachment 1282702 View attachment 1282703 View attachment 1282704 View attachment 1282705 View attachment 1282706 View attachment 1282707 View attachment 1282708 View attachment 1282709 View attachment 1282710 View attachment 1282711 View attachment 1282712 View attachment 1282713

Bad ass place. Nice to see how the other half lives

 

[kurtis500]

I watched the whole thing and this guy seems right...?? thoughts?

 

[kurtis500]

This is a seriously bad ass house on the water that I went and shot with our film guy tonight.. it’s on the water by the needles bridge. Owner is selling and picking up 2 lots in “the sands” which is the new development we are representing with white sand beaches on the water..

I would live here..

The fun part is seeing some of these bad ass houses, and other houses and seeing what the pros and cons of them are etc..



RD

Wow, that is amazing!

 

[TCHB]

Today I would not touch a second home with inflated prices and high interest rates. Very risky is you need to sell!
You could upside down very quickly.
Primary house is different. Location location location.

 

[regor]

Starting to get a bit dicey..................

Disclaimer: Regor Enterprises is not a financial advisory, we will not be held liable for you sitting on the sidelines due to our doom & gloom forecasts.

 

[Runs2rch]

View attachment 1282901


Starting to get a bit dicey..................

Disclaimer: Regor Enterprises is not a financial advisory, we will not be held liable for you sitting on the sidelines due to our doom & gloom forecasts.

Now the disclaimer! Hahaha!

 

[c_land]

My word…

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1707144154772389960

 

[Orange Juice]

This is a seriously bad ass house on the water that I went and shot with our film guy tonight.. it’s on the water by the needles bridge. Owner is selling and picking up 2 lots in “the sands” which is the new development we are representing with white sand beaches on the water..

I would live here..

The fun part is seeing some of these bad ass houses, and other houses and seeing what the pros and cons of them are etc..



RD View attachment 1282690 View attachment 1282691 View attachment 1282692 View attachment 1282693 View attachment 1282694 View attachment 1282695 View attachment 1282696 View attachment 1282697 View attachment 1282698 View attachment 1282699 View attachment 1282700 View attachment 1282701 View attachment 1282702 View attachment 1282703 View attachment 1282704 View attachment 1282705 View attachment 1282706 View attachment 1282707 View attachment 1282708 View attachment 1282709 View attachment 1282710 View attachment 1282711 View attachment 1282712 View attachment 1282713

Lottery money!!!!!!!!

 

[Sportin' Wood]

I talked to a colleague last night who works in commercial finance. He said that his company's transportation portfolio which he does not work in; is recording fantastically shocking delinquency rates on payments. He would not give me details but he said it does not paint a pretty picture as a leading indicator. His words: Buckle Up. In his division which is commercial equipment, he said the divide between creditworthiness is getting wider. Lots of highly leveraged small to medium-sized businesses are not qualifying due to the debt ratio impacts of interest rates. They can't get labor, they can't buy automation. He said his best customers have cash reserves and are using interest-rate buy-downs and payment skips to leverage a softening market to drive purchase bargains.

Do with this what you like. Not a prediction, just his perception of the temperature in the room.

 

[TCHB]

My word…

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1707144154772389960

I paid 13% in 1977 for our first home.

 

[bonesfab]

I paid 13% in 1977 for our first home.

That was still probably only a 100k house. My parents bought in 76 and it was 68k. House sold recently for over a million.

 

[EmpirE231]

I paid 13% in 1977 for our first home.

And purchase price was maybe around 150k for a nice place in HB back then.

 

[Runs2rch]

That was still probably only a 100k house. My parents bought in 76 and it was 68k. House sold recently for over a million.

Exactly. Would gladly pay 13% on 68k.

8% on even a 400k loan on a million dollar house is ridiculous.

 

[TCHB]

And purchase price was maybe around 150k for a nice place in HB back then.

We bought our house in HB for $130k in 1980. It was only 6 years old.
A top step Electrician at SCE was around $8to9 an hour.

 

[TCHB]

Havasu workers need a raise.

https://govsalaries.com/cat/city?state=AZ&employer=Lake+havasu

 

[shintoooo]

Pending home sales down 7.1% in August.

https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1707397026500010388

 

[EmpirE231]

We bought our house in HB for $130k in 1980. It was only 6 years old.
A top step Electrician at SCE was around $8to9 an hour.

The good old days… that same house today is probably 1.5M, 50 years old and needs to be gutted. @ 7.5-8% interest

 

[Sportin' Wood]

We bought our house in HB for $130k in 1980. It was only 6 years old.
A top step Electrician at SCE was around $8to9 an hour.

The first house for us was in 1992 1445 sq ft in California Oak Murrieta, CA. Paid $90K at a 7 1/2% interest rate. I made $9.00 an hour, I think Angie might have been making $12.00 and we had a newborn. The payment was like $1500 bucks. We made a decent profit when we sold it. The house was a repo and pretty thrashed.
It's Zillow worth about $530k today. I can't imagine paying $500K for that place today, it kind of sucked.

23898 Red Clover Cir, Murrieta, CA 92562 | Zillow

23898 Red Clover Cir, Murrieta CA, is a Single Family home that contains 1445 sq ft and was built in 1988.It contains 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms.This home last sold for $154,500 in July 2000. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $539,200, which has decreased by $560 in the last 30...

www.zillow.com

 

[TCHB]

The good old days… that same house today is probably 1.5M, 50 years old and needs to be gutted. @ 7.5-8% interest

Yes it expensive to live in HB.

 

[HTMike]

My parents bought a brand new house in 1980 ( chicago ) for 68k. Interest rate was 12% and my Dad said they felt like they won the lottery. LOL

 

[mesquito_creek]

People act like it was no big deal to buy 100-200k houses at 12%? When my parents bought a house 1982 for 120k at 12%, we had a big family sit down about how there was going to be major belt tightening so we could afford the house and we could go to better schools. No family vacations for a couple years etc…

When my wife and I bought our 150k house at 9.25 in 1997 we didn’t have a penny to our name at closing. We had to barrow money to pad our savings account so we could get the loan. Back then you had to have reserves in addition to closing costs and credit scores. I drove a 20 year old truck with 240k miles on it.

We still live in that house 26 years later and 90% of the people on RDP wouldn’t be caught dead in a 3/2 slump block ranch! Sorry but I don’t plan on attending the pity party! Lol

 

[HTMike]

90% of the people on RDP wouldn’t be caught dead in a 3/2 slump block ranch!

I had to look up what that was. Christ, you aint lyin !!

 

[mesquito_creek]

I had to look up what that was. Christ, you aint lyin !!

 

[COCA COLA COWBOY]

Facts:

The increase in the price of oil/fuel will most likely affect inflation in a negative way prompting Jerome Powell to do another rate increase of .25 at the next meeting.

A high number of property owners have current interest rates from 2-4% which most likely will prevent those owners from selling their homes and keeping inventory levels very low. Simple supply and demand dictates prices and without an increase in supply, demand will continue to be relatively strong.

Prices have stabilized in most areas, and in hot areas where people still want to live are gradually still increasing due to low inventory.

Real Estate Prices in areas that have increased exponentially yet lack industry to support those values/lack jobs to support those price points most likely will see decreased property values. I personally expect areas such as Idaho, Texas, Tenn. N. Carolina, etc to eventually decline as I truly don't see the jobs there to support median home prices. I am still up in the air when it comes to Austin, Texas and Florida. People are vacating New York fast due to their failed governing policies and many are heading to Florida. Austin does have the jobs to support higher prices for the time being.

Most in my industry seem to feel that interest rates will continue to rise to forth quarter 2024. Will we see double digit interest rates....maybe. We most likely will see 8% interest rates this year.

I've been hearing conflicting ideas on if Airbnb's will be the glut of new inventory. As we go into a recession, less people will travel and spend money on frivolous vacations. I hear some state that Airbnb's will flood the market. Personally, I just think those properties in most cases will become long term rentals.

According to the numbers, we have built less homes than needed since 2008. Especially in Southern California and it's quite difficult to do so. By the data, there is still a shortage of inventory that will affect the market for some time.

These are just my observations and I am not a crystal ball reader. I think the next year will be most interesting due to politics. The market will most likely be propped up on the democrat side until the elections. After that, look out. Remember what happened in 2008....the market was propped up until November 2008 and after that it was a bloodbath.

 

[Ace in the Hole]

How’s the short term rentals in Havasu. I closed on a place back in July. I haven’t seen my neighbor or anybody else for that matter next door since. Come to find out it’s a short term rental.

Second highest drop in the nation... over 50% down on bookings year over year. Articles have been posted on other threads about it.

 

[RiverDave]

View attachment 1283282

But do you have one? Or maybe 2?

 

[stillhustlin]

Popped up on my feed today. Hit a buddy up that actually worked on the deal. It was lender forced.

 

[78Southwind]

Popped up on my feed today. Hit a buddy up that actually worked on the deal. It was lender forced.

So how big of a hit did the lender take?

 

[~JM~]

...A top step Electrician at SCE was around $8to9 an hour.

SCE P.E.O.

 

[EmpirE231]

Popped up on my feed today. Hit a buddy up that actually worked on the deal. It was lender forced.

ouch

 

[stillhustlin]

So how big of a hit did the lender take?

Depends on ltv. Honestly no clue. Assuming 60% ltv would be like a 30 mil loss. Depends on how much they collected in payments as well.

 

[78Southwind]

Depends on ltv. Honestly no clue. Assuming 60% ltv would be like a 30 mil loss. Depends on how much they collected in payments as well.

Damn, that would be a pretty big hair cut right there.

 

[RaceTec]

My friend is involved with that property and it was a tough deal! I think they lost their ass...

 

[stillhustlin]

Damn, that would be a pretty big hair cut right there.

From what I understand it’s a drop in the bucket in the grand scene of things. Industrial properties are still killing it. Just office is dead.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

Ally with 18% unrealized loss is a big number. The ten year Treasury bond closed at 3.843 on June 30th (end of q2). Today that bond is 4.567. The thirty year closed at 3.863 on june 30th and is 4.698 today. Unless there is an unexpected market event the bonds are gonna close 70-80bps higher at the end of q3 than q2 which means more unrealized losses for these banks on their long term debt. Eventually those losses will be realized...

 

[havasujeeper]

For those of us, heavily banking at Ally, what do you recommend? Let the FDIC deal with it if they fold?

 

[arch stanton]

Try and keep no more than FDIC limits of 250k you may need multiple banks or at least one that’s considered to big to fail

 

[Albert]

From what I understand if it’s a joint account it’s FDIC FOR 500k meaning married or whatever your situation

 

[HNL2LHC]

From what I understand if it’s a joint account it’s FDIC FOR 500k meaning married or whatever your situation

I was told that it is also dependent on the account type. From what I understand an account of a trust with 4 beneficiaries you are covered up to $1m of cash. I have not confirmed this as I only have just over 5 figures in the bank…..that is including the two decimals.

 

[HTMike]

I thought I read somewhere that the FDIC has enough funds to cover only 8% of insured funds. I wonder who will be the first ones to get paid out of that 8% ?

 

[DrunkenSailor]

For those of us, heavily banking at Ally, what do you recommend? Let the FDIC deal with it if they fold?

The fdic has been quick to force mergers and keep the lights on. I would make sure your under the fdic limits. There's no telling if they will keep covering full account balances moving forward or not.

Ally is big in the auto finance game which is starting to see some losses. Just keep an eye on it. I wouldn't worry too much but the stock price is gonna take a hit when the q3 earning report comes out.

 

[HNL2LHC]

I thought I read somewhere that the FDIC has enough funds to cover only 8% of insured funds. I wonder who will be the first ones to get paid out of that 8% ?

The government staffing….duh!!!!

 

[zhandfull]

The government staffing….duh!!!!

That was the first thing I thought as well, Senate and Congress members.