2023 recession?

[CLdrinker]

So $1,200 a month. That doesn’t sound like make or break on buying a home to me.

Granted it’s a kick in the nuts looking at the 2 rates

$1200 month difference? lol my 20yr is $1300.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

tThis guy in Havasu getting ready! View attachment 1104157 ready.

Did you tell him its "prepared"?

 

[Bobby V]

Do you really consider it sales when the state mandates they have to do it??? Just asking. That would be like selling the air we breathe. You have to have it.

Have to have what? Plumbing, AC, Electrical, Walls…. Not sure what your referring to.?

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Wow really? Figured in that 22 you wouldn’t notice.

Boost = drinking fuel. Today's fuel condition is why I never upsized my boat. 50 gallons of 87 will last a 4 day weekend, or 100 days in the channel.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Wow really? Figured in that 22 you wouldn’t notice.

Heck no, leaning on boost it drinks gas.

 

[2Driver]

I was actually going to start a thread this week..

Over the weekend I stopped by Campbells and "topped off" my Pontoon boat. Just to top it off was 250.00. Some quick math, and if I actually ran the boat like I usually do and burn a whole tank, it would be 800.00 FOR A DAYS WORTH OF BOATING.

It made me realize, there's just a lot of shit I'd rather spend 800.00 on than that. Especially if I did it two days in a row it's now 1600.00.

I burn money like an asshole when I'm out having fun... but those fuel prices have actually made me (for the first time ever) reconsider how I'm going to spend my day on the water, and if I'm gonna spend my day on the water. It's fucking crazy..

4 full days of boating, and I can have my backyard landscaped professionally.

RD

When we first got married we didn’t have much free cash. We would launch the Spectra at site six for free and go directly over to the coves on the Cali side and spend the day. Big weekends we went down to Copper. We were on the lake every weekend and probably put 10 hours on the boat the first year.

 

[LuauLounge]

Somewhere I heard if your neighbor is laid off, that's a recession.
If you get laid off, that's a depression.

 

[MSum661]

When we first got married we didn’t have much free cash. We would launch the Spectra at site six for free and go directly over to the coves on the Cali side and spend the day. Big weekends we went down to Copper. We were on the lake every weekend and probably put 10 hours on the boat the first year.

That's what I like about Parker. We launch at River Island, cruise just past Fox's then shut it off and float down river for the day. Maybe stop at Road Runner, maybe not....head down just past the Keys and maybe fire it up and take the short drive down to Blue water and float around some more. What I like about it is the scenery is constantly changing like a movie..lol. Then when we're done for the day, drive back to the trailer. I think I burn +/- 10 gallons. I do it anyway...high fuel prices or not.

 

[riverroyal]

The one thing that brings recession is people claiming a recession is coming.

 

[Done-it-again]

Have to have what? Plumbing, AC, Electrical, Walls…. Not sure what your referring to.?

Think he's referring to new fire codes that mandate changes to the suppression system...... They don't have those for walls and plumbing....

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

The one thing that brings recession is people claiming a recession is coming.

People have been claiming that here on Financial Daves Place for 8 years and nothing yet aside from a blip in 2020.

 

[Havasu blue label]

The homes that are under construction do not Have a lock rate so it will be bad investors want there money

 

[Havasu blue label]

mr orange the financial analyst

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

mr orange the financial analyst

I haven’t sat on a glow stick yet!

 

[Bobby V]

Think he's referring to new fire codes that mandate changes to the suppression system...... They don't have those for walls and plumbing....

That maybe true for some new buildings but not for all existing buildings. I have a GC whose client is figuring out if he wants to add a 3 hr fire rating or installing sprinklers.

BTW..Not sure of what “new codes” you are referring to. The fire sprinkler code has been around for years. At least 40 years that I have been in the trade.

 

[Havasu blue label]

enjoy the new home

 

[bonesfab]

Have to have what? Plumbing, AC, Electrical, Walls…. Not sure what your referring to.?

The state requirements for fire sprinklers in everything now. Surprised the homeless aren't required to have it in their shantees. Thats right they can't afford it.

 

[Bobby V]

The state requirements for fire sprinklers in everything now. Surprised the homeless aren't required to have it in their shantees. Thats right they can't afford it.

Not totally true....Does your building have fire sprinklers..lol

The state also requires electrical, ADA requirements and plumbing. There 's a long list what the building code requires.

 

[2Driver]

People have been claiming that here on Financial Daves Place for 8 years and nothing yet aside from a blip in 2020.

I think then it was about how long can good times last. Now the economy is throwing codes.

6 interest rate hikes by year end
Fed stopping its bond buying program - no more easy money
7% inflation
War by a major enemy and key supplier to the global market
record fuel costs
2 years of stock market run ups, much based on hype
Investors and supply chain running up in single family housing.

I see a funnel cloud, not calling it a tornado doesn’t make it not happen.

 

[Happy Smitty]

Ground up or TI?

Three TIs and one ground up.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I think then it was about how long can good times last. Now the economy is throwing codes.

6 interest rate hikes by year end
Fed stopping its bond buying program - no more easy money
7% inflation
War by a major enemy and key supplier to the global market
record fuel costs
2 years of stock market run ups, much based on hype
Investors and supply chain running up in single family housing.

I see a funnel cloud, not calling it a tornado doesn’t make it not happen.

Agreed.

 

[pronstar]

I'm more worried about what the government will do to us when the recession hits vs. the effects of the actual recession. A mild pull back should be welcomed by all at this point. My prediction is 3rd and 4th quarter this year. Usually by the time we realize it is here it is almost over anyway.

Exactly

Just like the plandemic…it was the government‘s response to it that was/is the real issue.

 

[Go-Fly]

The housing bubble is going to blow up by the end of summer 22. Some are going to make money and some are going to lose everything. Already seeing the starts of foreclosures and high end money is getting harder to get. The first sign you'll see is when your favorite restaurant is half full.

 

[77charger]

person making 125k year shouldn't be buying a 650k house unless they have 250k to put down.....

I aint no financial expert or in real estate but i can say roughly thats alot of money for home for someone making 125k a year.Many buy with less down too and wonder why they end up upside down.

When we bought our first home we were making about 75k combined we barely qualified for 19k and put 12k down.interest was 8 percent and that was considered good then.Within a couple years peopla making the same were getting loans for 450k plus all day long but we saw what happened in 2008.

 

[Cdog]

 

[HNL2LHC]

Boost = drinking fuel. Today's fuel condition is why I never upsized my boat. 50 gallons of 87 will last a 4 day weekend, or 100 days in the channel.

Yeah, but it will be impossible to find a spot in the Channel unless you are the ez-up guy setting up before daylight. LOL. I think that we will start to see boat parties in driveways. You will really know it is rough when boats are parked up McCulloch rather than put them on the water. :looking:

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Yeah, but it will be impossible to find a spot in the Channel unless you are the ez-up guy setting up before daylight. LOL. I think that we will start to see boat parties in driveways. You will really know it is rough when boats are parked up McCulloch rather than put them on the water. :looking:

I only go to the Channel during the week to set my Ez up for the weekend.

 

[Your ad here]

Yeah, but it will be impossible to find a spot in the Channel unless you are the ez-up guy setting up before daylight. LOL. I think that we will start to see boat parties in driveways. You will really know it is rough when boats are parked up McCulloch rather than put them on the water. :looking:

Partying on the boat in the driveway is a blast! Have had some good times and memories doing it. Really the only way everyone can have a fun time and not have to worry about DUI or pulling the boat out of the water.

 

[HNL2LHC]

Partying on the boat in the driveway is a blast! Have had some good times and memories doing it. Really the only way everyone can have a fun time and not have to worry about DUI or pulling the boat out of the water.

Didn’t know that was a thing. I should have had a drink with me when the wife and cleaned out the boat this afternoon. LOL

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Didn’t know that was a thing. I should have had a drink with me when the wife and cleaned out the boat this afternoon. LOL

Try it in August! The euphoria you are feeling is a heatstroke!

 

[RiverDave]

Lol I put 40 gallons of AV from Parker oil on Friday night after boating. Boated Saturday to Topock, Sunday to the dam and did some skiing. Still have 1/2 tank .
40 gallons was a hair over $220

Edit: instead of buying the 240/255/270 maybe I should just add a second 21 river cruiser lol

Edit 2: 50 gallons is topping off? How much does that beast hold?!

Edit 3: did the math. 160 gallons? Might be time to play with props. 80 gallons a motor is a lot, even if you’re doing havasu to topock to the dam to the sand bar in a day.

150 gallons is what they claim but I think it’s more. Lol.

 

[RiverDave]

I still wanna talk about @RiverDave fuel consumption. That just seems nuts!

Well to be honest one of the only things I dislike about my Avalon is the fuel gauge and volt meters on the screens..

The fuel gauge says you are out of fuel when you have quite a bit 1/3 to a 1/2 tank left over.. I have never run it out of fuel yet so I’m not real sure how far it can go? All I know is when the gauge says low I say it’s time to go home and I fill it back up for next time.. lol

The volt meter thing is the most bizarre ducking thing I have ever seen. If you sit on a beach for a few with the keys in accessory mode to play the stereo in a few minutes the volt meters read like the batteries are dead.. (they aren’t). If you turn the keys to in all of a sudden the bars jump up to normal..

That stupid fucking thing has caused so much unnecessary anxiety in me I could not tell you..

They are all wired that way and all do it.

 

[COCA COLA COWBOY]

Yup, it’s coming. I have all the data, but I don’t feel like dealing with the peanut gallery. Instead, let’s talk about all the boats we will buy when they sell cheap!

 

[Your ad here]

Didn’t know that was a thing. I should have had a drink with me when the wife and cleaned out the boat this afternoon. LOL

When my brother and I worked on his boat on the weekends in the driveway come evening time friends would come over and we would party on the boat drinking beer, shots of Jack Daniels, listen to 80's hair metal, and having a good time. Few times we got the Coleman BBQ out and cooked bratwurst. Didn't have to worry about DUI, launch ramp, or driving. Still had to watch out for the outdrive and prop.

 

[brgrcru]

to whom it may concern. I hope it turns into a huge pile of steaming shit. asap. that, or that long lost meteor. finally makes a run at earth.
cheers.

 

[Englewood]

They ain’t selling. Most at MSRP lol

I agree. All these rookies paid MSRP++ for RV’s. They are listed for sale and not moving. It’s changing already.

 

[4Waters]

When my brother and I worked on his boat on the weekends in the driveway come evening time friends would come over and we would party on the boat drinking beer, shots of Jack Daniels, listen to 80's hair metal, and having a good time. Few times we got the Coleman BBQ out and cooked bratwurst. Didn't have to worry about DUI, launch ramp, or driving. Still had to watch out for the outdrive and prop.

You don't want to fall out of the boat either

 

[Matt Mead]

All the radio real estate adds have turned from “sell your house now and get top dollar” to “sell your house immediately the bubble is about to pop.” Those adds always make me laugh because odds are that most people selling will need to buy another house.

I had this conversation with our real estate agent friends. They say in order to make that whole situation work you need two houses. It's not worth it to rent while you wait for the market to crash, so you gotta live in your "other" house after you sell your big dollar one at the "top". I mean, I can't even afford one house, so I realize how ridiculous that sounds to most people, besides the 1%.

 

[RiverDave]

The one thing that brings recession is people claiming a recession is coming.

Actually that’s very true..

 

[badgas]

Everyone thinks they're an expert and everyone thinks they can predict it.


They all claim they knew 2008 was coming yet they all lost everything.

The economy will always ebb and flow.

The stock market will always be a roller coaster but it always goes up.

The real estate market always goes up.

I've said it many times before, keep your debt low and live below your means and you can weather the storm.

At some point that storm will come. Like Warren Buffett says "when the tide goes out you can see who's skinny dipping"



Good times !!!

 

[RiverDave]

Everyone thinks they're an expert and everyone thinks they can predict it.


They all claim they knew 2008 was coming yet they all lost everything.

The economy will always ebb and flow.

The stock market will always be a roller coaster but it always goes up.

The real estate market always goes up.

I've said it many times before, keep your debt low and live below your means and you can weather the storm.

At some point that storm will come. Like Warren Buffett says "when the tide goes out you can see who's skinny dipping"



Good times !!!

Not to sound smarter than everyone else.. but my brother was buying at the time a manufactured home in a neighborhood of vista. It was 470k..

I told him, I dunno shit about real estate but a cheeseburger is about a buck (at the time) and that ain’t worth 470,000 cheeseburgers.. lol.

He made charts and all the shit nerds do, told me I’m an idiot and I’ll never understand..

He finally got out of that piece of shit and into a normal house five or so years ago. Lol.

I rented until 2011.. I graduated high school in 1994. You can do the math on that.. if things didn’t drop then I’d still be Renting.

In 2011 my budget for a house was 200k. At that time you could buy a new 3/2 with a pool for that price or a new 3/2 with an rv garage.. but to get both you were in the 3’s..

Realtors etc said just put in a pool they are 30 grand! I kept saying I’m moving here with no job and no income.. when am I ever gonna do that?

My house was listed for 364.. waaayy out of my budget. The market was so depressed out here if I liked the house I’d offer 50k low and if the house was “ok” I’d offer a 100k low..

Ended up getting my house for 310k, and lived very house poor for years. We didn’t even have a tv in my house for the first year or two.. and we had patio furniture in the dining room.

Anyhow I figured my house 4/4 rv garage : pool / lake view reverse corner lot etc was worth the 310,000 cheeseburgers..

Our mortgage was 1200 bucks a month and I can’t tell you how many months we had to beg borrow money to pay it. Doing bullshit machining jobs for Pennie’s on the dollar just to make the nut.

My wife just bought a 415,000 dollar lot up in the foothills and it scares the ever living shit out of me.. I know I could sell it right now and probably make 150-200k on it.. the build cost of developing an acre though is gonna be monstrous.. it’s what she wants though, and I’ll rewind ya to my original budget and how we ended up with something over 50% more than the original budget.. lol. Stacy gets what she wants.

And fuck it.. if I lose it all I can go get it again. So long as I keep this network alive we will be alright in just about any circumstance.

RD

 

[76sanger]

I voted no. Why? Because I will be surprised if we make through the end of 22. I may be wrong and hopefully I am, but i have been saying since the election "i" believe that we will be running on trumps economy for two years. Because it was (so strong) and continuing to grow exponentially year after year.

 

[Riverbound]

I’m no fortune teller but if credit approval ratings for home improvement projects is any indicator, I have seen a change recently.

 

[boatdoc55]

I hate to admit it..... But I'm starting to think that a recession is the only way to bring cost/wages back to normal.... I don't want to live through one again but everything is out of control.

I've been saying that for over 3 years and I hope it's a BIGLY one!!!

 

[Ace in the Hole]

We didn’t even have a tv in my house for the first year or two.. and we had patio furniture in the dining room.

This gave me a good laugh..when Brianna and I got our first house (townhouse 2/1 with two parking spots) the payment was the top of our budget (yay Hawaii real estate). We didn't have a couch..we bought a patio set off craigslist and used that for like a year and a half till we could afford a Costco couch. There are a lot of times I wish I could go back to those days...life was simple then.

 

[530RL]

3.6 percent unemployment, 10 million open jobs, if one has a pulse they can get a job, and demand far exceeds supply for most things from workers to goods people want to buy.

Could a recession happen, sure. But it is going to take a major overnight shift in demand to get two quarters of contraction in 2022 given all the shortages existing today.

 

[boatdoc55]

I think a lot more middle to upper middle class will get wiped out and that those in power aim for this. They want control. They want no gap between poor and rich. For the rich, the cost doesn't matter, the rules and regulations don't matter because they can pay to play. The poor are happy where they are, they're the conditioned and brainwashed ones who are delighted to accept hand outs on the backs of the middle class who they often mistake as the rich. I guess when you're poor anyone who has more than you is rich.

Now the middle class has to pay more for their own consumption and in addition increased taxes to give the higher cost goods to the poor. The burden relies on this group largely.

I think all the polices, regulations, taxes, government organizations that provide no real value, etc are designed to burden the middle class and eventually wipe them out. They want control and sadly, they'll eventually get it. Take a look at every other communist country.

The Fed is pro world government, not pro America. The Fed has set up the stage for where the economy is today and where it's going. Free market is dead.

Agree 100%!!! I already climbed the mountain and I'm looking down the other side. Just VERY glad I don't have kids and grandkids. It's going to be tough for them to learn how to speak China Talk.

 

[boatdoc55]

Exactly!! I just took a sizable amount of our cash savings to purchase a business. Of course I am kind of stressed since my buyers can't find homes and mortgage applications are WAY down, but not getting anywhere without taking chances. YOLO!!!!

Did you just take yore rosey glasses off and set them on yore desk???????????????

 

[boatdoc55]

I was actually going to start a thread this week..

Over the weekend I stopped by Campbells and "topped off" my Pontoon boat. Just to top it off was 250.00. Some quick math, and if I actually ran the boat like I usually do and burn a whole tank, it would be 800.00 FOR A DAYS WORTH OF BOATING.

It made me realize, there's just a lot of shit I'd rather spend 800.00 on than that. Especially if I did it two days in a row it's now 1600.00.

I burn money like an asshole when I'm out having fun... but those fuel prices have actually made me (for the first time ever) reconsider how I'm going to spend my day on the water, and if I'm gonna spend my day on the water. It's fucking crazy..

4 full days of boating, and I can have my backyard landscaped professionally.

RD

I just told the wife the other day, there's going to be a lot of beaching on the white sand at the North end of the channel for us this summer. On weekdays of course.

 

[Bigbore500r]

Do you have a decent supply of food on hand? What about gas masks?

I can help ya on both those fronts.

Not having decent food is why people need gas masks