2023 recession?

[Cdog]

I was pissed when they got rid of those.

They got high on their own supply. I haven't bought anything there since covid.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

They got high on their own supply. I haven't bought anything there since covid.

The stupid savings club they went to, is/was stupid.

 

[Boatymcboatface]

When I start getting my Del Taco coupons in the mail again I’ll be happy! I’ll also know we’re heading for a recession. Then those will be followed by the 30k pool build adds in the by one get one flyer.

 

[MSum661]

4/07/2022

 

[hallett21]

4/07/2022



View attachment 1104304

Pre foreclosure is how many missed payments?

 

[NicPaus]

Going to look at a house today at lunch with the Realtor. Fell out of escrow yesterday. $3,775,000 in Torrance. Went into escrow within 3 days. Maybe the market is crashing.

At 1 now in Lomita She just closed on. 120k over asking for a condo. Doing a full remodel on it.

 

[MSum661]

Pre foreclosure is how many missed payments?

I think it's 3

 

[hallett21]

I think it's 3

CA residential foreclosure takes like a year right?

 

[MSum661]

CA residential foreclosure takes like a year right?

I have no idea. I started keeping stats in February and its been steadily climbing.
It could be that the ending of 18 months of Mortgage/ foreclosure forebearance is starting to show up on the stats now

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Jobless claims at 54 year low today

Jobless claims match 54-year low of 166,000 in another sign of sizzling U.S. labor market

New U.S. jobless claims matched a 54-year low of 166,000 in mid-April --- the second lowest reading in history --- during a period of remarkably strong...

www.google.com

 

[D19]

My wife and I keep saying to each other. Who is paying these prices???!!!

I recently sold a house in "decent" neighborhood out in the IE. 1960s built, 1400sf, nothing really special, backs up to busy street for $710k! The buyer's were a mom, sister and brother all on the loan, barely qualified because rates went up. They had to add brother to the loan at the end to get the deal done.

That being said I'm curious to see what happens with the pendings over the next 30-60 days. I know how agents, lenders and buyers are; Especially wet behind the ears ones, and there's a lot of those in the marketplace right now. IMO, if you're a buyer/agent, you need to constantly revisit the pre-qaul w/ your lender right now, because when your are preapproved 30 days ago for X and after 5 weeks you finally get an offer accepted and into escrow, lender orders the loan and now you don't qualify w/ the new rates. Many agents and lenders will not do this. I'm wondering if we will see a lot of escrow fall outs and if so I'm thinking we'll start to see increased days on market and inventory levels. Only time will tell.

 

[EmpirE231]

it's all fine, nobody panic... according to LOF and oldschool in here, everyone should be buying as much real estate right now as they can.... because in 10 years you're gonna be up. That's where the "smart" money is going.

I'm just a dumb money guy.... studying the market and trying to figure it all out. I do have a lot of clients that are heavy in the real estate world / rentals etc.... and none of them have added a new property to their portfolio in the last 4 years. Maybe they are dumb.... but they all sure do have a lot more money than most others I know

Most clients that are invertor types that have added properties in the last few years are doing the VRBO short term rental thing, and most highly leveraged.

there are winners and there are losers.......time will tell.

 

[D19]

Pre foreclosure is how many missed payments?

1. Miss 1 pymt and see how much mail you get. LOL

But really it depends on the lender, marketplace and the scenario. I've had clients behind a year plus with no filing.

 

[Cdog]

Got this email last week from Mbanc.

 

[Wheeler]

When I start getting my Del Taco coupons in the mail again I’ll be happy! I’ll also know we’re heading for a recession. Then those will be followed by the 30k pool build adds in the by one get one flyer.

I'm waiting for Monavie sales to start back up. I'm down to my last 13 cases.

 

[badgas]

Most clients that are invertor types that have added properties in the last few years are doing the VRBO short term rental thing, and most highly leveraged.

there are winners and there are losers.......time will tell.

This is key !

You can't survive the storms with too much debt, unless you are ok with bankruptcy.

 

[badgas]

Got this email last week from Mbanc.

OMG please tell me you got this email on April 1st ?

 

[Cdog]

OMG please tell me you got this email on April 1st ?

March 31st.

 

[D19]

OMG please tell me you got this email on April 1st ?

I get those emails daily

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

March 31st.

That is April 1st in India.

 

[DMF]

I've lived through a few recessions and the signs are there.
I'm sure inflation and gas prices have a lot to do with it.
But:

Suddenly that $800 tree trimming job that I had a hard time getting anyone to do is $200 with guys begging for the job.
Hotel rooms are much easier to get anytime we want and discounted.
Masonry work crews I know were backed up a year,, now hand to mouth work.

I don't know what area you are in that this is happening. I am a electrical contractor in Redlands. I own homes in Redlands and Havasu. In either area is this the case. We are slammed busy with customers waiting long periods for us to start. Anything I get quotes on for either house is the same scenario. There is no shortage of work for skilled trade craftsman. Even go away bids are being excepted and waiting for us to do the work.

 

[BingerFang]

This. Smart money that is in for the medium to longer term is always buying if it makes sense. Generally speaking and taking natural disasters out of the equation, how many times in history did anyone lose money in RE over 10 years? Even almost all that bought in 06 were at least breaking even by 2016 and have massive equity 17 years later.

Not me, but a buddy bought in 06, got a divorce and had to sell. House is worth 900k in todays market, lol.

Didn’t “lose” any money but god dam.

 

[77charger]

Oh Yeah.
I was going to mention that too.
HF is sending discount emails once again.
When it's a everything in the store coupon then we've hit bottom.

No when they give out free volt meters and flashlights then it’s bottom.

 

[Ladsm]

I cant say where but a big online retailer that starts with an "A" announced this week they are in a Post Covid reset and for the next 18-24 months they are going to cut costs, stop building mega warehouses and get the pre-pandemic productivity back up. The open checkbook just slammed shut. The fuel prices, supply shortages and social distancing took a bite out of the business.

 

[TPC]

I don't know what area you are in that this is happening. I am a electrical contractor in Redlands. I own homes in Redlands and Havasu. In either area is this the case. We are slammed busy with customers waiting long periods for us to start. Anything I get quotes on for either house is the same scenario. There is no shortage of work for skilled trade craftsman. Even go away bids are being excepted and waiting for us to do the work.

Good to read I hope it stays that way.
My electrician and plumber friends are still busy.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Not me, but a buddy bought in 06, got a divorce and had to sell. House is worth 900k in todays market, lol.

Didn’t “lose” any money but god dam.

View attachment 1104317

He bought at the peak of the peak lol. There are always Corona edge cases like that. What’s it worth today?

That is still 13 years of cheap rent...

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

No when they give out free volt meters and flashlights then it’s bottom.

Those were great, the 9v internal batteries sucked though.

 

[Jay Dub]

Well to be honest one of the only things I dislike about my Avalon is the fuel gauge and volt meters on the screens..

The fuel gauge says you are out of fuel when you have quite a bit 1/3 to a 1/2 tank left over.. I have never run it out of fuel yet so I’m not real sure how far it can go? All I know is when the gauge says low I say it’s time to go home and I fill it back up for next time.. lol

The volt meter thing is the most bizarre ducking thing I have ever seen. If you sit on a beach for a few with the keys in accessory mode to play the stereo in a few minutes the volt meters read like the batteries are dead.. (they aren’t). If you turn the keys to in all of a sudden the bars jump up to normal..

That stupid fucking thing has caused so much unnecessary anxiety in me I could not tell you..

They are all wired that way and all do it.

can you add Vessel-View? Do you have Merc power? I added Vessel-View mobile to our 210. Know I know exactly how much fuel I have remaining. Plus other features. Best $250 I have spent that is boating related.

 

[JDKRXW]

Sorry man but this is far from the truth. Foreclosures aren't starting and buyers are still lining up. They will pay 6%, because they need housing. Will prices keep accelerating at the current pace, NO but the housing market will not crash.
Here are some facts for you -

(1) 140 million millennials will enter the housing market in the next 1-2 years,
(2) millennials outnumber boomers as the largest demographic to ever enter the workplace or housing market, and
(3) builders are behind, not building as many homes as they did in the previous 10 years (5.8 million homes built since 2010, versus 27 million homes built from 2000-2010).



Housing crash bros continue and will continue to be wrong. A crash by end of summer 2022? Where do you even come up with that and based on what??

Your #1 fact is not correct.
There are only 72M millennials in the US
And, a huge percentage of them (born in 1981 and forward) already own housing.
(from Statisica)

 

[4czn10]

A little off subject...How long should i wait to purchase a 2017 Denali or Tahoe for the wife? 1 month 6 months or Fuk it you only live once??

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Pre foreclosure is how many missed payments?

90 Days late you get an NOD (Notice Of Default)

Keep missing payments, you will get Notice Of Foreclosure and then an auction date. Once that happens, you can file BK and push it off for months and months.

 

[hallett21]

A little off subject...How long should i wait to purchase a 2017 Denali or Tahoe for the wife? 1 month 6 months or Fuk it you only live once??

The automobile peaked at the 2002 7.3 excursion. Anything else is for the stupid peasants.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

it's all fine, nobody panic... according to LOF and oldschool in here, everyone should be buying as much real estate right now as they can.... because in 10 years you're gonna be up. That's where the "smart" money is going.

I'm just a dumb money guy.... studying the market and trying to figure it all out. I do have a lot of clients that are heavy in the real estate world / rentals etc.... and none of them have added a new property to their portfolio in the last 4 years. Maybe they are dumb.... but they all sure do have a lot more money than most others I know

Most clients that are invertor types that have added properties in the last few years are doing the VRBO short term rental thing, and most highly leveraged.

there are winners and there are losers.......time will tell.

I am not buying real estate to invest in right now, but always stand by the fact that no matter what, your biggest expenditure should be fixed. It is a shame how many people continue to rent (some since 2015) waiting for the dip, who now are so behind it isn't even funny. My house payment is $2,199 / month PITI. Try to rent an apartment in Temecula for that. But what do I know..........just another stupid mortgage broker with an agenda.

 

[bonesfab]

A little off subject...How long should i wait to purchase a 2017 Denali or Tahoe for the wife? 1 month 6 months or Fuk it you only live once??

Depends on how soon you want to get laid???

 

[caribbean20]

The FED has $9 TRILLION of US debt on its balance sheet. That’s TRILLION with a T.

The total US economy in a full year is only $23 Trillion. Just mind blowing how much the government propped up the economy last several years by suppressing interest rates.

Of course higher interest rates are coming as the FED unwinds, and it can’t come too dam soon! Enough already.

 

[4czn10]

The automobile peaked at the 2002 7.3 excursion. Anything else is for the stupid peasants.

Sure easy for you to say! I can't afford $100K for one of those!! JK

 

[hallett21]

A little off subject...How long should i wait to purchase a 2017 Denali or Tahoe for the wife? 1 month 6 months or Fuk it you only live once??

Take 10,000 and divide it over the year you’re going to wait plus however long you plan on owning it. If you can stomach that “loss” buy it now. If not wait and see.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

Sorry man but this is far from the truth. Foreclosures aren't starting and buyers are still lining up. They will pay 6%, because they need housing. Will prices keep accelerating at the current pace, NO but the housing market will not crash.
Here are some facts for you -

(1) 140 million millennials will enter the housing market in the next 1-2 years,
(2) millennials outnumber boomers as the largest demographic to ever enter the workplace or housing market, and
(3) builders are behind, not building as many homes as they did in the previous 10 years (5.8 million homes built since 2010, versus 27 million homes built from 2000-2010).


Supply and demand........simple.

The problem is the lack of starter homes. They were all bought up by huge investment firms between 2009 - 2014.

Did you know that they are building master planned communities now and not selling the homes, they are renting them?? The rental market is even more insane then the housing market. These renter only communities will be causes of even more constricted supply.

Housing crash bros continue and will continue to be wrong. A crash by end of summer 2022? Where do you even come up with that and based on what??

Credit tightening alone is going to have an immediate impact. Regional banks are doing margin calls. One major originator couldn't meet it this week. The dominoes are going to start falling. Industry layoffs have started.

Right now today securitization on Ginnie 3.5s are underwater. When was the last 3.5 you locked? 21 days on average for loans to get through the pipe plus another week to sell equals thirty days. Rates have risen more than a point in that time frame. 21 days is about as fast as it gets. 45 is the average for nonqm, and prime jumbo due to the appraisal delays. Commercial is even longer. These deals take another 90 days to securitize. Where were mortgage rates 4 months ago?

Performance for all securities has been stellar with interest rates at zero and prepay speeds at 40%. In a rising rate environment that prepay rate is going to drop to under 10%. This will increase the duration of the bond. The time a bond is outstanding effects the amount of yield the investor seeks annually. This combined with rising rates means that bond interest rates are rising. Quickly. Too quickly for the origination world to supply enough loan coupon to pay down the debt as the time delay is too great and pipelines are lagging behind.

Angel oak, the largest nonqm originator, just cancelled all locks. They aren't the only one. Rate extension policies are being killed industry wide. Your lock expires and you price to new rate sheet.

The supply chain is a problem in mortgage too. It may be transitory but only if origination pipelines can get in front of bond spreads.

I'm seriously looking at credit default swaps as I know of 7 recently securitized deals that will default

 

[DrunkenSailor]

CA residential foreclosure takes like a year right?

Depends on what the borrower does. Apply for mod etc... Anywhere from 180 days from going delinquent to years if they are good at the game. No one should be foreclosed on today with the amount of equity still available.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Credit tightening alone is going to have an immediate impact. Regional banks are doing margin calls. One major originator couldn't meet it this week. The dominoes are going to start falling. Industry layoffs have started.

Right now today securitization on Ginnie 3.5s are underwater. When was the last 3.5 you locked? 21 days on average for loans to get through the pipe plus another week to sell equals thirty days. Rates have risen more than a point in that time frame. 21 days is about as fast as it gets. 45 is the average for nonqm, and prime jumbo due to the appraisal delays. Commercial is even longer. These deals take another 90 days to securitize. Where were mortgage rates 4 months ago?

Performance for all securities has been stellar with interest rates at zero and prepay speeds at 40%. In a rising rate environment that prepay rate is going to drop to under 10%. This will increase the duration of the bond. The time a bond is outstanding effects the amount of yield the investor seeks annually. This combined with rising rates means that bond interest rates are rising. Quickly. Too quickly for the origination world to supply enough loan coupon to pay down the debt as the time delay is too great and pipelines are lagging behind.

Angel oak, the largest nonqm originator, just cancelled all locks. They aren't the only one. Rate extension policies are being killed industry wide. Your lock expires and you price to new rate sheet.

The supply chain is a problem in mortgage too. It may be transitory but only if origination pipelines can get in front of bond spreads.

I'm seriously looking at credit default swaps as I know of 7 recently securitized deals that will default

OK, great. That will affect mortgage companies and some will fail or maybe a lot will fail, who knows. How does this trickle down to a massive increase in supply to drive prices down?? Yeah some layoffs in the space will happen but that isn't enough to dent the market. Not really understanding how what you are describing plays into more houses on the market.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Depends on what the borrower does. Apply for mod etc... Anywhere from 180 days from going delinquent to years if they are good at the game. No one should be foreclosed on today with the amount of equity still available.

This.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

OK, great. That will affect mortgage companies and some will fail or maybe a lot will fail, who knows. How does this trickle down to a massive increase in supply to drive prices down?? Yeah some layoffs in the space will happen but that isn't enough to dent the market. Not really understanding how what you are describing plays into more houses on the market.

Tightening liquidity = tighter lending standards = less buyers. LTV and Fico restrictions on the rate sheet alone will make a huge difference. Remember that the fed has been buying billions in mortgages. That is ending.

The government is working on a homes for all strategy. When they aren't the end buyer the person who is left holding the bag is gonna look at those sub 600 fico's and those 97% ltvs with a little more scrutiny.

Yes agency loans are insured but it wasn't that long ago when mortgage insurance companies were reducing payouts by as much as 50% or outright denying claims.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

it's all fine, nobody panic... according to LOF and oldschool in here, everyone should be buying as much real estate right now as they can.... because in 10 years you're gonna be up. That's where the "smart" money is going.

I'm just a dumb money guy.... studying the market and trying to figure it all out. I do have a lot of clients that are heavy in the real estate world / rentals etc.... and none of them have added a new property to their portfolio in the last 4 years. Maybe they are dumb.... but they all sure do have a lot more money than most others I know

Most clients that are invertor types that have added properties in the last few years are doing the VRBO short term rental thing, and most highly leveraged.

there are winners and there are losers.......time will tell.

Some "highly leveraged" types have already paid off their 2020 notes with that VRBO money over the last 2 years.

Clearly they are idiots

Anyone looking to buy RE in this thread would jump at the chance to buy a property they like right now at the price it was 4 years ago.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

There are 7 PMI companies in the us. Arch (formerly PMI group bankrupt 2010). Genworth financial all over the news for financial instability. Mgic former owner of cbass. Radian guarantee bankrupt in 2011. Essent, national mortgage insurance and old republic. 3 out of 7 being solid ain't bad.

 

[shintoooo]

A housing bubble is on everyone's mind right now — here's what it is and how to know if the US is in one

Demand is booming and supply is lagging, triggering a heated debate about whether or not the US is in a housing bubble that's about to burst.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[c_land]

Tightening liquidity = tighter lending standards = less buyers. LTV and Fico restrictions on the rate sheet alone will make a huge difference. Remember that the fed has been buying billions in mortgages. That is ending.
The government is working on a homes for all strategy. When they aren't the end buyer the person who is left holding the bag is gonna look at those sub 600 fico's and those 97% ltvs with a little more scrutiny.

Yes agency loans are insured but it wasn't that long ago when mortgage insurance companies were reducing payouts by as much as 50% or outright denying claims.

This guys gets it. I don't buy the demographics/under supply NARrative.

There is no supply issue, we have more supply that has come online since 2019. Right now there is 1.6 million homes under construction, more than in 2006 and still ramping. Almost more that anytime since the data has been recorded.

There is a demand issue. You didn't flip a demographic switch in March of 2020 and millions of millennials decided to buy a house/car/boat. The gov flipped the shutdown, monetary, and fiscal switch that pumped trillions into the economy and drove rates into the ground (buying treasuries and MBS) to spur elevated demand.

The Fed will actively reversing that trend this year from a monetary standpoint.

It's already been mentioned here that the unemployment rate is at some of the lowest levels in 50 years. The Fed has a dual mandate, maximum employment and stable prices. With the employment goal fully realized, the Fed is shifting focus under enormous pressure to the stable prices portio of their mandate.

Stabilizing prices means getting inflation under control. Inflation is measured using the PCE and the CPI. The largest component of the CPI is shelter, and it is one of the largest components in the PCE.

The Fed knows this, and they want inflation to come down. They are going to target housing. The largest buyer of MBS is exiting and will now become a seller to the tune of $35B/month. Some of the FOMC members have said this outloud, as recently as this week:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511712010253357061

Housing had massive unnecessary support and investment attention the past two years, don't fight the fed.

BTW, Japan is waiting for prices to always go up:

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

This guys gets it. I don't buy the demographics/under supply NARrative.

There is no supply issue, we have more supply that has come online since 2019. Right now there is 1.6 million homes under construction, more than in 2006 and still ramping. Almost more that anytime since the data has been recorded.

View attachment 1104375


There is a demand issue. You didn't flip a demographic switch in March of 2020 and millions of millennials decided to buy a house/car/boat. The gov flipped the shutdown, monetary, and fiscal switch that pumped trillions into the economy and drove rates into the ground (buying treasuries and MBS) to spur elevated demand.

The Fed will actively reversing that trend this year from a monetary standpoint.

It's already been mentioned here that the unemployment rate is at some of the lowest levels in 50 years. The Fed has a dual mandate, maximum employment and stable prices. With the employment goal fully realized, the Fed is shifting focus under enormous pressure to the stable prices portio of their mandate.

Stabilizing prices means getting inflation under control. Inflation is measured using the PCE and the CPI. The largest component of the CPI is shelter, and it is one of the largest components in the PCE.

The Fed knows this, and they want inflation to come down. They are going to target housing. The largest buyer of MBS is exiting and will now become a seller to the tune of $35B/month. Some of the FOMC members have said this outloud, as recently as this week:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511712010253357061

Housing had massive unnecessary support and investment attention the past two years, don't fight the fed.

BTW, Japan is waiting for prices to always go up:

View attachment 1104372

The question is can the fed stabilize housing and inflation with out screwing up everything else. I think we know the answer.

 

[Your ad here]

it's all fine, nobody panic... according to LOF and oldschool in here, everyone should be buying as much real estate right now as they can.... because in 10 years you're gonna be up. That's where the "smart" money is going.

I'm just a dumb money guy.... studying the market and trying to figure it all out. I do have a lot of clients that are heavy in the real estate world / rentals etc.... and none of them have added a new property to their portfolio in the last 4 years. Maybe they are dumb.... but they all sure do have a lot more money than most others I know

Most clients that are invertor types that have added properties in the last few years are doing the VRBO short term rental thing, and most highly leveraged.

there are winners and there are losers.......time will tell.

As long as you're in a good location when has real estate ever not gone up over an extended period of time? In 10 years it should be up unless there is a dip. There will be dips and rises so you may have to ride it out a few years. On the flip side the gain may come sooner that expected.

 

[Cdog]

The question is can the fed stabilize housing and inflation with out screwing up everything else. I think we know the answer.

If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there'd be a shortage of sand.

Milton Friedman

 

[pkbullet]

I’m curious how Covid might have sped up some of the Babyboomer wealth transfer? Starting in 2018 68 trillion was to start transferring to millennials that would most likely spend at a much higher rate. With Covid likely pulling elderly deaths forward by a couple years, I wonder how much of the cash buying over the last couple years could be driven by this? With this liquidity being possessed by people that are more likely to spend it, could the recession floor be a little softer this time?