2023 recession?

[RiverDave]

Got this email last week from Mbanc.

And they say there’s no predatory lending anymore.. lol

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Arguing about the housing market is becoming equivalent to COVID vaccines.

 

[MSum661]

I’m curious how Covid might have sped up some of the Babyboomer wealth transfer? Starting in 2018 68 trillion was to start transferring to millennials that would most likely spend at a much higher rate. With Covid likely pulling elderly deaths forward by a couple years, I wonder how much of the cash buying over the last couple years could be driven by this? With this liquidity being possessed by people that are more likely to spend it, could the recession floor be a little softer this time?

Whatever the case, the Personal savings rate has plummeted hard since 2021 to 6.4%, the lowest level since 2013,
and at the same time, personal expenditures have spiked to new highs. So, for the most part, that money has vaporized back out of their hands

We use to say back in 2008 after the last financial crises "Prices go up like a escalator...............and fall like a elevator"
Since then, The United States Fed has became the new Angelo Mozilo of Countrywide Financial and not even they themselves will go out on a limb and promise anyone there will be a soft landing. They're truly waaay over their heads right now in several ways. jmo

Fun times ahead!!

 

[HNL2LHC]

I’m curious how Covid might have sped up some of the Babyboomer wealth transfer? Starting in 2018 68 trillion was to start transferring to millennials that would most likely spend at a much higher rate. With Covid likely pulling elderly deaths forward by a couple years, I wonder how much of the cash buying over the last couple years could be driven by this? With this liquidity being possessed by people that are more likely to spend it, could the recession floor be a little softer this time?

Sadly, that happened to my MIL. We thought that it was going to be another 10 years at least.

 

[c_land]

Arguing about the housing market is becoming equivalent to COVID vaccines.

Are you wearing yore mask?

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I’m curious how Covid might have sped up some of the Babyboomer wealth transfer? Starting in 2018 68 trillion was to start transferring to millennials that would most likely spend at a much higher rate. With Covid likely pulling elderly deaths forward by a couple years, I wonder how much of the cash buying over the last couple years could be driven by this? With this liquidity being possessed by people that are more likely to spend it, could the recession floor be a little softer this time?

Great question.

 

[Cdog]

My next door neighbor just listed their 3 bed, 3 bath, 3 car garage house for sale. It's 3,200 sqft in North Scottsdale on .70 acre. Asking is 1.4M. We will see if the market is still batshit.....

Last comp in here I sold in December for $1,039,950. It was 3/2.5/3 garage, dated but awesome view.

Anyone want to live next-door to me?

8008 E TETHER TRL, Scottsdale, AZ 85255

Elegant and pristine...this'' desert diamond'' is located in the very private North Scottsdale gated community of Hermosa Heights. Stunning views, hiking trails and privacy offers the finest of the Arizona Lifestyle. It's Santa Fe architecture, outdoor patios and courtyards, lush landscape and...

www.flexmls.com

 

[Havasu blue label]

it Will happen fast in havasu no weekend renters let it go 90 days before you see the sticker on the door

 

[Havasu blue label]

It’s Scottsdale should be fine

 

[pronstar]

Given a long-enough horizon, even a bad real estate purchase will eventually become a good asset.

It might happen decades after you die, or you might lose your ass every step of the way…but it’ll happen eventually

 

[Ace in the Hole]

it Will happen fast in havasu no weekend renters let it go 90 days before you see the sticker on the door

Hopefully my next door neighbor in Havasu is the first casualty of that...fucking air bnb

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Hopefully my next door neighbor in Havasu is the first casualty of that...fucking air bnb

A lot of these MFers paid off their pads.. not all, but not every Air BNB is 3 vacant weekends away from loosing the farm either.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

A lot of these MFers paid off their pads.. not all, but not every Air BNB is 3 vacant weekends away from loosing the farm either.

Come on man. According to River Financial Advisors Place, everyone is one bad month away from losing everything. It is fascinating to see so many people rooting for the failure of others. They all assume so much but have no clue.

 

[Havasu blue label]

Wrong again eyes and ears are working for me in havasu

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Maybe THIS is the thread that might be right!!!! Or.........will it join all the rest of the doom and gloom threads in the boneyard??

 

[Orange Juice]

I don’t see a lot of panic to sell. I see a lot of shortages, and worry that if I sell today, I can’t replace tomorrow.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

I don’t see a lot of panic to sell. I see a lot of shortages, and worry that if I sell today, I can’t replace tomorrow.

You sure as hell can’t replace your 3% interest rate we are all handcuffed to our current properties…..might as well get in line for a swimming pool addition

 

[Done-it-again]

Got this email last week from Mbanc.

Pretty much the only way to combat the increase in interest rates and get people in homes.

Arms will also become very popular agin.

 

[Ace in the Hole]

A lot of these MFers paid off their pads.. not all, but not every Air BNB is 3 vacant weekends away from loosing the farm either.

Oh I'm well aware of that..I've posted previously about my issues with them, and their tenants/property manager. It's no secret regarding my dislike for them. It's a higher end pad and last I checked was rented out quite a while in the future. One can hope though lol. The friendly stage wore off a long time ago.

 

[Carrera205]

The automobile peaked at the 2002 7.3 excursion. Anything else is for the stupid peasants.

Can confirm. I drive a 7.3 the wife has the Denali. I’ve already put more money into the Denali. And the 7.3 has 350k on the clock.

 

[Ace in the Hole]

I don’t see a lot of panic to sell. I see a lot of shortages, and worry that if I sell today, I can’t replace tomorrow.

This...especially in "destination places" including havasu.

 

[Cdog]

Pretty much the only way to combat the increase in interest rates and get people in homes.

Arms will also become very popular agin.

These were popular last time just before the end.

 

[evantwheeler]

Agreed.

But let’s say 5k a month including property taxes. That’s a gross W2 household income of 125k with no debt qualifying.

I think everyone would agree the “new” 100k a year income is 185-200 now.

125k between a husband and wife is $30 an hour. Agreed that it would put some buyers in a tight spot.

You think its do-able for someone/a couple making $125k a year W2 to spend $5k a month on P&I and property taxes? Am I reading that right?

 

[Orange Juice]

These were popular last time just before the end.

But it was zero down to get in, and cash back.

 

[hallett21]

You think its do-able for someone/a couple making $125k a year W2 to spend $5k a month on P&I and property taxes? Am I reading that right?

I was pointing out the bare minimum to be able to “afford” that loan.

Plenty of couples making 40, 50, 60 an hour each.

 

[zhandfull]

60-70% of people may not have money to pay their tax bill. New mortgage originations down 40% and refinancing down 60%. No big deal! But when River Dave is starting to complain about fuel cost and consumption. That does make my pause and think am I missing something here.

 

[Your ad here]

60-70% of people may not have money to pay their tax bill. New mortgage originations down 40% and refinancing down 60%. No big deal! But when River Dave is starting to complain about fuel cost and consumption. That does make my pause and think am I missing something here.

Wouldn't refinancing be down because money isn't on "sale" right now? Is it really down or has it leveled off from an influx of people buying or re buying the same money cheaper while it was on sale?

 

[CLdrinker]

I was pointing out the bare minimum to be able to “afford” that loan.

Plenty of couples making 40, 50, 60 an hour each.

It’s not what you make it’s what you spend.

 

[BHC Vic]

It’s not what you make it’s what you spend.

I don’t think I’ve heard that but I like it. I’m writing it on my white board

 

[zhandfull]

Wouldn't refinancing be down because money isn't on "sale" right now? Is it really down or has it leveled off from an influx of people buying or re buying the same money cheaper while it was on sale?

I’m sure it’s just due to higher rates. The smart money will not be taking a 3% mortgage and refinancing into a 5% mortgage without some type of life event happening.

 

[MSum661]

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/a-recession-shock-is-coming-bofa-warns

 

[dancinbear]

Interesting read...seems about every 10 years, with some exceptions of course.

History of Recessions in the United States

There have been 19 major recessions in the United States. Learn how GDP, unemployment, and more were affected, how bad they were, and when they ended.

www.thebalance.com

 

[CLdrinker]

I’m sure it’s just due to higher rates. The smart money will not be taking a 3% mortgage and refinancing into a 5% mortgage without some type of life event happening.

Don’t under estimate the amount of stupid people who will cash out refi to go buy a new toy. House payment only goes up a couple hundred but hey they got that new boat!

 

[FROGMAN524]

The only thing for sure is anyone here who sells homes or mortgages will say there is no recession coming and if there is one it will be mild and not affect their lifestyle in anyway. As a matter of fact, they’ve got millions on the sidelines just waiting to scoop up cheap foreclosure properties just in case.

 

[Cdog]

I don’t think I’ve heard that but I like it. I’m writing it on my white board View attachment 1104476

The chair is against the wall.

 

[Cdog]

The only thing for sure is anyone here who sells homes or mortgages will say there is no recession coming and if there is one it will be mild and not affect their lifestyle in anyway. As a matter of fact, they’ve got millions on the sidelines just waiting to scoop up cheap foreclosure properties just in case.

I’m not bull shitting anyone…

I’m focused on commercial deals at the moment

 

[BHC Vic]

The chair is against the wall.

That whole corner is in need of some attention… maybe I’ll get to it today but the list of shit to do is pretty long, and I’m not sure how me posting on RDP is helping

 

[Your ad here]

The only thing for sure is anyone here who sells homes or mortgages will say there is no recession coming and if there is one it will be mild and not affect their lifestyle in anyway. As a matter of fact, they’ve got millions on the sidelines just waiting to scoop up cheap foreclosure properties just in case.

What's the cause that will generate cheap foreclosures?

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Don’t under estimate the amount of stupid people who will cash out refi to go buy a new toy. House payment only goes up a couple hundred but hey they got that new boat!

According to the Sodium Awareness Dave’s Place members the memories made in the boat are priceless.

 

[angiebaby]

2008 went crickets in a matter of months.

2008 started in late 2006. We saw the writing on the wall and began to attempt to downsize Jeff's construction business around that time. By March 2007 it was plain as day. That's when we walked away and sold the business to his partner, who was bankrupt within 6 months.

 

[Instigator]

Got this email last week from Mbanc.

That is how the New Ballers are made. Lmao

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

That is how the New Ballers are made. Lmao

That’s how people live rent free for a couple years...

 

[Havasu blue label]

It takes 90 days guys tough for the people that have homes under construction and equity lines

 

[angiebaby]

Nothing new there.....5-600k doesn't get much anywhere in CA.... especially in a hot area...

It doesn't get you much anywhere in the West, from Montana/Idaho/Washington to Arizona/California.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

The only thing for sure is anyone here who sells homes or mortgages will say there is no recession coming and if there is one it will be mild and not affect their lifestyle in anyway. As a matter of fact, they’ve got millions on the sidelines just waiting to scoop up cheap foreclosure properties just in case.

There aren't going to be any cheap foreclosure properties this time around because people have equity and will sell if they get in a bind. Not sure how many times I have to say it, but this market is not 2008 and you will not see properties going for pennies on the dollar at the courthouse steps. The dynamics are completely opposite.

 

[Runs2rch]

There aren't going to be any cheap foreclosure properties this time around because people have equity and will sell if they get in a bind. Not sure how many times I have to say it, but this market is not 2008 and you will not see properties going for pennies on the dollar at the courthouse steps. The dynamics are completely opposite.

How about now?

 

[Your ad here]

There aren't going to be any cheap foreclosure properties this time around because people have equity and will sell if they get in a bind. Not sure how many times I have to say it, but this market is not 2008 and you will not see properties going for pennies on the dollar at the courthouse steps. The dynamics are completely opposite.

Isn't a big thing too that most everyone has a fixed interest rate now as before in 2008 when most had an ARM the interest rate would change causing the monthly payment to become unaffordable even though the person was still making the same amount each month? Then it became cheaper to rent a place like theirs instead of making a mortgage payment?
Dont think a lot of people will walk away from a low fixed interest rate and a place that the mortgage is cheaper than rent. Even if the economy slows down.

 

[Havasu blue label]

If you don’t have buyers that have the income to buy and qualify it’s called a forclouser

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Isn't a big thing too that most everyone has a fixed interest rate now as before in 2008 when most had an ARM the interest rate would change causing the monthly payment to become unaffordable even though the person was still making the same amount each month?

Here is what caused the last bubble and subsequent crash -

• 100% Financing (no equity to start)
• Interest Only and NEGATIVE AMORTIZATION Payments
• ARM’s (high margins and 2 years fixed) ****Payments skyrocketed at the end of the 2 year term****
• Very few cash transactions
• Appraisers were loosely regulated and pressured by commissioned parties for valuations
• Unqualified / Unstable Buyers (Stated Income)
• No Credit, No problem! (SUB PRIME LOANS)
• Double escrows (buying and selling the same property on the same day)
• Job growth in cyclical industries like; Real Estate, Construction and Tourism

Here is what dominates our current market -

• Down Payments (built in equity / skin in the game)
• Principal & Interest Payments
• Fixed Rates at historic lows
• More cash transactions
• Appraisers more regulated (HOEPA) and answer to underwriters on valuations, separated from commissioned parties
• More stable buyers
• Intent to occupy with renter or owner
• Mandatory wait time between purchase and sale
• Job growth in health, financial and tech industries (more diversified)

Now take the current market dynamics and then add appreciation to that. Homeowners are sitting on a ton of equity so there won't be any foreclosures, regardless of what the resident financial advisors in here tell you.

 

[Havasu blue label]

Remember there primary home take money out buy a Vaction home and a boat bill is due