2023 recession?

[Havasu blue label]

I would say 50 percent of toy owners are over extended

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I would say 50 percent of toy owners are over extended

So that means 50% are ballers.

 

[Havasu blue label]

Yes sir and always will be smile son

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Yes sir and always will be smile son

Give yoreself a pat on the back. Well done

 

[Bobby V]

From a contractors point of view I'm not seeing any major slowdown. Right now there is a bit of balancing going on but no stopping in sight. Maybe in 2024.?.?

Yep..I bid on commercial projects only In So Cal. Last month was the most projects I have ever bid in 20 years of estimating. A lot of T.I’s, remodels, medical, new companies coming into So Cal

 

[DILLIGAF]

I might have been 1 1/2 years early but I think I am in a great position to weather all of this. That includes blood in the streets

 

[pronstar]

“Recession” is a trigger word for many, but it’s really just stagnant economic growth/activity. The .gov keeps shifting their definition, so I think it’s important to look beyond the word…

I’m more interested in the factors that cause things to stagnate…the “why”

What factors do folks think will cause a slowdown?
Understanding this will help us weather the storm and actually make money, to come out ahead.

The Great Recession we had 15 years ago affected many people…but it also made a lot of people a lot of money.

 

[Done-it-again]

Yep..I bid on commercial projects only In So Cal. Last month was the most projects I have ever bid in 20 years of estimating. A lot of T.I’s, remodels, medical, new companies coming into So Cal

bids are bids......Don't count your chickens before being hatched.....

 

[rivrrts429]

Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.

 

[Bobby V]

bids are bids......Don't count your chickens before being hatched.....

Ok..But I had a good month in sales in March also. April has started out pretty good so far.

 

[RiverDave]

Sitting here doing tax returns and 2021 was a year of record profits and earnings for 90% of my clients. However, most of them are shocked at the amount of taxes they owe and probably 60-70% of them don't have the money to pay their taxes. Most are going on a payment plan.

The theme for 2021 was SPEND....SPEND.....SPEND.

You need to get more aggressive with the taxes.. LOL

RD

 

[RiverDave]

Lol, did you ever get radiation suits to save us from the Fukushima disaster?
I honestly didn't take you as that much of a prepper or scaredy cat.
Your PR trip told me I was wrong. I do, however, appreciate your diligence on that front.
Not poking you, just verbalizing my somewhat surprised realization.

Dude we are one flight of locusts away from the perfect storm here.. We got war / pandemic / out of control inflation / open borders / & more.

Better get your guns / bullets / food / gas masks in order... Because when it all collapses, you are either gonna be a wolf or a sheep. If it never collapses, I'll pass it on to the kids.

RD

 

[Englewood]

I'm watching the Havasu market closely. The amount of VRBO's is staggering. The first sign of a slowdown in weekend rentals (see gas prices), along with a slower economy, could be a recipe for disaster.

Mortgage rates over 5% will bring the market to a halt (my guess). The prices have become ridiculous and I personally would be ok with a 25% haircut.

 

[RiverDave]

I was actually going to start a thread this week..

Over the weekend I stopped by Campbells and "topped off" my Pontoon boat. Just to top it off was 250.00. Some quick math, and if I actually ran the boat like I usually do and burn a whole tank, it would be 800.00 FOR A DAYS WORTH OF BOATING.

It made me realize, there's just a lot of shit I'd rather spend 800.00 on than that. Especially if I did it two days in a row it's now 1600.00.

I burn money like an asshole when I'm out having fun... but those fuel prices have actually made me (for the first time ever) reconsider how I'm going to spend my day on the water, and if I'm gonna spend my day on the water. It's fucking crazy..

4 full days of boating, and I can have my backyard landscaped professionally.

RD

 

[hallett21]

@OldSchoolBoats or @Tamalewagon if you have nothing better to do lol.

Could you post purchasing a 750k home at 3% and at 6%?

Say the maximum loan amount is 600-700k (or whatever you think is the middle of the road).

700 credit score.

And say the buyer has 100k to put down.

It would be interesting to see if 5,6,7,20% is the breaking point for affordability.

 

[Cdog]

Thread should be re-titled to

“2022 3rd or 4th quarter Recession.”

 

[hallett21]

I was actually going to start a thread this week..

Over the weekend I stopped by Campbells and "topped off" my Pontoon boat. Just to top it off was 250.00. Some quick math, and if I actually ran the boat like I usually do and burn a whole tank, it would be 800.00 FOR A DAYS WORTH OF BOATING.

It made me realize, there's just a lot of shit I'd rather spend 800.00 on than that. Especially if I did it two days in a row it's now 1600.00.

I burn money like an asshole when I'm out having fun... but those fuel prices have actually made me (for the first time ever) reconsider how I'm going to spend my day on the water, and if I'm gonna spend my day on the water. It's fucking crazy..

4 full days of boating, and I can have my backyard landscaped professionally.

RD

Lol I put 40 gallons of AV from Parker oil on Friday night after boating. Boated Saturday to Topock, Sunday to the dam and did some skiing. Still have 1/2 tank .
40 gallons was a hair over $220

Edit: instead of buying the 240/255/270 maybe I should just add a second 21 river cruiser lol

Edit 2: 50 gallons is topping off? How much does that beast hold?!

Edit 3: did the math. 160 gallons? Might be time to play with props. 80 gallons a motor is a lot, even if you’re doing havasu to topock to the dam to the sand bar in a day.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

I'm more worried about what the government will do to us when the recession hits vs. the effects of the actual recession. A mild pull back should be welcomed by all at this point. My prediction is 3rd and 4th quarter this year. Usually by the time we realize it is here it is almost over anyway.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

@OldSchoolBoats or @Tamalewagon if you have nothing better to do lol.

Could you post purchasing a 750k home at 3% and at 6%?

Say the maximum loan amount is 600-700k (or whatever you think is the middle of the road).

700 credit score.

And say the buyer has 100k to put down.

It would be interesting to see if 5,6,7,20% is the breaking point for affordability.

650k @ 6% = $4,092.08 p&i + $195 for MI on this scenario. That rate is paying me 1.6% comp today

$650k @ 3.25% = $3,023.84 p&i

To get 3.25% it is a 7.6 point buydown today (which you couldn't do if you wanted to)

 

[Gonefishin5555]

Regarding gas, my boat partner wants to put a tip jar by the steering wheel. We use 40 gallons in 2 days its not really that much maybe an extra $80 with the high prices

 

[bonesfab]

Ok..But I had a good month in sales in March also. April has started out pretty good so far.

Do you really consider it sales when the state mandates they have to do it??? Just asking. That would be like selling the air we breathe. You have to have it.

 

[hallett21]

650k @ 6% = $4,092.08 p&i + $195 for MI on this scenario. That rate is paying me 1.6% comp today

$650k @ 3.25% = $3,023.84 p&i

To get 3.25% it is a 7.6 point buydown today (which you couldn't do if you wanted to)

So $1,200 a month. That doesn’t sound like make or break on buying a home to me.

Granted it’s a kick in the nuts looking at the 2 rates

 

[BHC Vic]

@OldSchoolBoats or @Tamalewagon if you have nothing better to do lol.

Could you post purchasing a 750k home at 3% and at 6%?

Say the maximum loan amount is 600-700k (or whatever you think is the middle of the road).

700 credit score.

And say the buyer has 100k to put down.

It would be interesting to see if 5,6,7,20% is the breaking point for affordability.

I don’t know if you follow joe on fb or Instagram but his what will it take weds are basically this. I like watching em

 

[Cdog]

So $1,200 a month. That doesn’t sound like make or break on buying a home to me.

Granted it’s a kick in the nuts looking at the 2 rates

It does for a buyer that was capped out pushing to spend 650k at sub 4%.

Also consider the property taxes in some areas of the IE are easily $800-1000.

 

[D19]

So $1,200 a month. That doesn’t sound like make or break on buying a home to me.

Granted it’s a kick in the nuts looking at the 2 rates

But it changes ratios and some may not qualify for a payment that's $1,200 per month higher.

 

[foxfam312]

Ok guys, I got to throw this out there, when this recession does hit, and some say the fiat dollar will be turned into a digital currency of some sort, do any of you believe that, or am I taking it all little too far?

 

[D19]

I'm watching the Havasu market closely. The amount of VRBO's is staggering. The first sign of a slowdown in weekend rentals (see gas prices), along with a slower economy, could be a recipe for disaster.

Mortgage rates over 5% will bring the market to a halt (my guess). The prices have become ridiculous and I personally would be ok with a 25% haircut.

Yes and then you think about how the big hotels (big $) can afford to incentivize guests to stay at their hotels rather than a VRBO/ Airbnb. I think when the competition comes into play it will be harder for the mom and pops rental business to compete. Maybe not all areas but many.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

So $1,200 a month. That doesn’t sound like make or break on buying a home to me.

Granted it’s a kick in the nuts looking at the 2 rates

Could definitely be the difference in qualifying for some people.

 

[hallett21]

It does for a buyer that was capped out pushing to spend 650k at sub 4%.

Also consider the property taxes in some areas of the IE are easily $800-1000.

But it changes ratios and some may not qualify for a payment that's $1,200 per month higher.

Agreed.

But let’s say 5k a month including property taxes. That’s a gross W2 household income of 125k with no debt qualifying.

I think everyone would agree the “new” 100k a year income is 185-200 now.

125k between a husband and wife is $30 an hour. Agreed that it would put some buyers in a tight spot.

 

[Done-it-again]

You need to get more aggressive with the taxes.. LOL

RD

It also sounds like he does a lot members taxes too.......

 

[MSum661]

I

Ok guys, I got to throw this out there, when this recession does hit, and some say the fiat dollar will be turned into a digital currency of some sort, do any of you believe that, or am I taking it all little too far?

No, I don't believe that. Digital currency is still considered a risk asset.
Risk assets traditionally don't do well in a high inflation/ high interest rate cycle compaired to physical assets.
Recession is coming but stagflation has better odds of happening before that, imo

 

[Done-it-again]

Agreed.

But let’s say 5k a month including property taxes. That’s a gross W2 household income of 125k with no debt qualifying.

I think everyone would agree the “new” 100k a year income is 185-200 now.

125k between a husband and wife is $30 an hour. Agreed that it would put some buyers in a tight spot.

person making 125k year shouldn't be buying a 650k house unless they have 250k to put down.....

 

[paradise]

So $1,200 a month. That doesn’t sound like make or break on buying a home to me.

Granted it’s a kick in the nuts looking at the 2 rates

Really? $14k a year after taxes, so a roughly $20k/year salary increase. I would say for most people that would be a solid deal breaker...

Good on you for not being in that club but most people have payments that total up to exactly what they make. As long as everything goes perfect they are good to go LOL

 

[Happy Smitty]

I

Yep..I bid on commercial projects only In So Cal. Last month was the most projects I have ever bid in 20 years of estimating. A lot of T.I’s, remodels, medical, new companies coming into So Cal

Last week i signed more work in total revenue than I do in a year. So there is that to consider.

 

[BingerFang]

Thread should be re-titled to

“2022 3rd or 4th quarter Recession.”

I originally had it labeled 22/23 but changed it to 2023. Lol

 

[Badchoices03]

Dude we are one flight of locusts away from the perfect storm here.. We got war / pandemic / out of control inflation / open borders / & more.

Better get your guns / bullets / food / gas masks in order... Because when it all collapses, you are either gonna be a wolf or a sheep. If it never collapses, I'll pass it on to the kids.

RD

You're starting to sound like some dude from yuma....lol

 

[Your ad here]

What's going to cause the recession and what businesses and or markets will be affected?

 

[TCHB]

You're starting to sound like some dude from yuma....lol

tThis guy in Havasu getting ready!

ready.

 

[Your ad here]

I
Last week i signed more work in total revenue than I do in a year. So there is that to consider.

Ground up or TI?

 

[mbrown2]

Sitting here doing tax returns and 2021 was a year of record profits and earnings for 90% of my clients. However, most of them are shocked at the amount of taxes they owe and probably 60-70% of them don't have the money to pay their taxes. Most are going on a payment plan.

The theme for 2021 was SPEND....SPEND.....SPEND.

I just thought it was my CPA sleeping on the job ....they could have moderated my tax returns better

 

[mbrown2]

tThis guy in Havasu getting ready! View attachment 1104157 ready.

Is that RD's place....MRE Depot....

 

[hallett21]

person making 125k year shouldn't be buying a 650k house unless they have 250k to put down.....

I think that ship sailed in 2015. If you factor rent paid from say 2017 to the impending doom and gloom of 2023 your 250k down would almost be gone.

Agreed people shouldn’t over extend themselves but success is also achieved with risk.

 

[Singleton]

Exactly!! I just took a sizable amount of our cash savings to purchase a business. Of course I am kind of stressed since my buyers can't find homes and mortgage applications are WAY down, but not getting anywhere without taking chances. YOLO!!!!

So what do you have cooking. Always willing to support businesses owned by RDP inmates

 

[hallett21]

Really? $14k a year after taxes, so a roughly $20k/year salary increase. I would say for most people that would be a solid deal breaker...

Good on you for not being in that club but most people have payments that total up to exactly what they make. As long as everything goes perfect they are good to go LOL

Starting to think I can “afford a 300k boat” lol.

I’ll carry debt on appreciating assets and I’ll carry a loan on a toy if I’m making better money with the cash.

Outside of that we try to live in our means

 

[paradise]

Starting to think I can “afford a 300k boat” lol.

I’ll carry debt on appreciating assets and I’ll carry a loan on a toy if I’m making better money with the cash.

Outside of that we try to live in our means

Same, sometimes it’s hard to believe how far people will stretch themselves

 

[CLdrinker]

I have noticed the trailer sell off as well on there

They ain’t selling. Most at MSRP lol

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

I was actually going to start a thread this week..

Over the weekend I stopped by Campbells and "topped off" my Pontoon boat. Just to top it off was 250.00. Some quick math, and if I actually ran the boat like I usually do and burn a whole tank, it would be 800.00 FOR A DAYS WORTH OF BOATING.

It made me realize, there's just a lot of shit I'd rather spend 800.00 on than that. Especially if I did it two days in a row it's now 1600.00.

I burn money like an asshole when I'm out having fun... but those fuel prices have actually made me (for the first time ever) reconsider how I'm going to spend my day on the water, and if I'm gonna spend my day on the water. It's fucking crazy..

4 full days of boating, and I can have my backyard landscaped professionally.

RD

One of the reasons I got rid of my 400r outboard. Not only did it have to run 91, the damn thing was thirsty!!

 

[hallett21]

I still wanna talk about @RiverDave fuel consumption. That just seems nuts!

 

[hallett21]

One of the reasons I got rid of my 400r outboard. Not only did it have to run 91, the damn thing was thirsty!!

Wow really? Figured in that 22 you wouldn’t notice.

 

[D19]

What's going to cause the recession and what businesses and or markets will be affected?

Well our nation runs on credit, so I think when you see available credit begin to disappear.

Everything that people buy with credit will be effected