2023 recession?

[c_land]

I was starting to get worried since an economic doom and gloom thread hadn't been posted in a week. I got a shit ton of buyers ready and willing to pay over 5% on their mortgage rate, just can't get ANY of them into houses. In Temecula, the $500k - $600K purchase price crowd is pretty much screwed.

Question for you...

What is the length of a typical interest rate lock these days?

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

5 more years of these 30% returns and Im retiring

I just bought a singlewide in Parker for $750k. Im repainting it white and relisting it next week for 1.4.

good plan.

 

[Backlash]

Steve? Steve, is that you??

 

[Done-it-again]

I was starting to get worried since an economic doom and gloom thread hadn't been posted in a week. I got a shit ton of buyers ready and willing to pay over 5% on their mortgage rate, just can't get ANY of them into houses. In Temecula, the $500k - $600K purchase price crowd is pretty much screwed.

Nothing new there.....5-600k doesn't get much anywhere in CA.... especially in a hot area...

 

[regor]

Sitting here doing tax returns and 2021 was a year of record profits and earnings for 90% of my clients. However, most of them are shocked at the amount of taxes they owe and probably 60-70% of them don't have the money to pay their taxes. Most are going on a payment plan.

The theme for 2021 was SPEND....SPEND.....SPEND.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Question for you...

What is the length of a typical interest rate lock these days?

With most of my deals coming in as 21 day closes, I have been doing 22 day locks at UWM because it saves about .15BPS in price. Other than that, 30 days is the most prevalent.

 

[hallett21]

On the low homes that sold in our area in the last 30 days went for 10% over ask.

Anything under 1.5 million is gone 2 weeks from listing.

 

[BHC Vic]

On the low homes that sold in our area in the last 30 days went for 10% over ask.

Anything under 1.5 million is gone 2 weeks from listing.

Imo those are the ones that are going to be negative equity here shortly.

 

[hallett21]

Imo those are the ones that are going to be negative equity here shortly.

I think LA county max conforming loan is 800k ish. So I gotta imagine they’re putting down 6 figures.

A 2:1 and 1:1 duplex is asking 3400 a door down the street lol.

Wife and I have always lived within our means so if we dip I can’t wait to buy more property

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Imo those are the ones that are going to be negative equity here shortly.

Likely does not matter much with rent the way that it is.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I think LA county max conforming loan is 800k ish. So I gotta imagine they’re putting down 6 figures.

A 2:1 and 1:1 duplex is asking 3400 a door down the street lol.

Wife and I have always lived within our means so if we dip I can’t wait to buy more property

Most of the offers for my house were 6 figures down.

 

[CLdrinker]

"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2015
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2016
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2017
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2018
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2019
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2020
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2021
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2022 <---You are here.

They are finally right, we will be in a recession soon. Wake me when people start pulling down the Help Wanted signs from store windows.

Speed delivery 2020
Speed delivery 2021
Speed delivery202.....

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Speed delivery 2020
Speed delivery 2021
Speed delivery202.....

F250 delivery June
F250 delivery August
F250 delivery Octob.....

 

[Cdog]

Likely does not matter much with rent the way that it is.

This is true. Until the unemployment increases we’re looking at stagflation. But I see unemployment as the second or third domino here.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

This is true. Until the unemployment increases we’re looking at stagflation. But I see unemployment as the second or third domino here.

Agreed.

 

[CLdrinker]

So I favorite low a few truck forums to stay up to date on the status of my order.

There are more than a few guys worried about interest rates and they may not be able to afford the truck they ordered.

Some have mentioned due to the gas prices they are not going to go through with the purchase or are second guessing themselves.


Str8uptoytrader has lots of RV’s for sale lately and the prices aren’t as crazy. Normally I would blame it on riding season is over. But allot of the units are 2020-21 models. So I’m thinking people are getting rude awakenings.

House prices buy me continue to rise. We will see.

 

[CLdrinker]

F250 delivery June
F250 delivery August
F250 delivery Octob.....

I was fine until you said October .

If I had to bet my money would be August.

 

[BHC Vic]

I think LA county max conforming loan is 800k ish. So I gotta imagine they’re putting down 6 figures.

A 2:1 and 1:1 duplex is asking 3400 a door down the street lol.

Wife and I have always lived within our means so if we dip I can’t wait to buy more property

I’m sure you’re right especially if they sold a home to get into a bigger one. Still makes me nervous. I paid 6 for my house. I thought that was too much. Last year my neighbor paid 8. I wouldn’t have done it. I’d take 8 for mine but it’s not even worth 6 imo

 

[Havasu blue label]

But the lots at the Rivera are selling like hot cakes 5 hundred thousand plus wait it’s the next Newport

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I was fine until you said October .

If I had to bet my money would be August.

Hoping so!!

 

[JL95]

So I favorite low a few truck forums to stay up to date on the status of my order.

There are more than a few guys worried about interest rates and they may not be able to afford the truck they ordered.

Some have mentioned due to the gas prices they are not going to go through with the purchase or are second guessing themselves.


Str8uptoytrader has lots of RV’s for sale lately and the prices aren’t as crazy. Normally I would blame it on riding season is over. But allot of the units are 2020-21 models. So I’m thinking people are getting rude awakenings.

House prices buy me continue to rise. We will see.

I have noticed the trailer sell off as well on there

 

[BingerFang]

It's RD SUX, not RDP SUX.

Please make a note of it.

Lol… RDP SUX all my time.

 

[D19]

I think a lot more middle to upper middle class will get wiped out and that those in power aim for this. They want control. They want no gap between poor and rich. For the rich, the cost doesn't matter, the rules and regulations don't matter because they can pay to play. The poor are happy where they are, they're the conditioned and brainwashed ones who are delighted to accept hand outs on the backs of the middle class who they often mistake as the rich. I guess when you're poor anyone who has more than you is rich.

Now the middle class has to pay more for their own consumption and in addition increased taxes to give the higher cost goods to the poor. The burden relies on this group largely.

I think all the polices, regulations, taxes, government organizations that provide no real value, etc are designed to burden the middle class and eventually wipe them out. They want control and sadly, they'll eventually get it. Take a look at every other communist country.

The Fed is pro world government, not pro America. The Fed has set up the stage for where the economy is today and where it's going. Free market is dead.

 

[BHC Vic]

I think a lot more middle to upper middle class will get wiped out and that those in power aim for this. They want control. They want no gap between poor and rich. For the rich, the cost doesn't matter, the rules and regulations don't matter because they can pay to play. The poor are happy where they are, they're the conditioned and brainwashed ones who are delighted to accept hand outs on the backs of the middle class who they often mistake as the rich. I guess when you're poor anyone who has more than you is rich.

Now the middle class has to pay more for their own consumption and in addition increased taxes to give the higher cost goods to the poor. The burden relies on this group largely.

I think all the polices, regulations, taxes, government organizations that provide no real value, etc are designed to burden the middle class and eventually wipe them out. They want control and sadly, they'll eventually get it. Take a look at every other communist country.

The Fed is pro world government, not pro America. The Fed has set up the stage for where the economy is today and where it's going. Free market is dead.

And to think this all ties back into the titanic going down. Epic

 

[EmpirE231]

C'mon man! Don't be a downer.... Brandon is in charge and we're going to the moon! 5% mortgage rates on record high real estate prices.... $6 gas, $75k 1/2 ton trucks.... this all makes sound financial sense. Most people are financially conservative, and don't spend more than they make... which helps in uncertain times, and "recessions"

 

[c_land]

Ohhhhh boy. FOMC Minutes are out.

Participants generally agreed that monthly caps of about $60 billion for Treasury securities and about $35 billion for agency MBS would likely be appropriate.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/04/fomc-minutes-plans-for-reducing-size-of.html

 

[Cdog]

I think a lot more middle to upper middle class will get wiped out and that those in power aim for this. They want control. They want no gap between poor and rich. For the rich, the cost doesn't matter, the rules and regulations don't matter because they can pay to play. The poor are happy where they are, they're the conditioned and brainwashed ones who are delighted to accept hand outs on the backs of the middle class who they often mistake as the rich. I guess when you're poor anyone who has more than you is rich.

Now the middle class has to pay more for their own consumption and in addition increased taxes to give the higher cost goods to the poor. The burden relies on this group largely.

I think all the polices, regulations, taxes, government organizations that provide no real value, etc are designed to burden the middle class and eventually wipe them out. They want control and sadly, they'll eventually get it. Take a look at every other communist country.

The Fed is pro world government, not pro America. The Fed has set up the stage for where the economy is today and where it's going. Free market is dead.

The bourgeoisie must be eliminated. The proletariat will rise!!

Be prepared!!

 

[Havasu blue label]

Ok Brandon but you cashed all that free money son

 

[D19]

The bourgeoisie must be eliminated. The proletariat will rise!!

Be prepared!!

End the Federal Reserve, end the bullshit. Can you imagine America w/ no Fed and a simplified tax code? What a great place it would be (again). The Federal Gov could no longer fund their own agendas to dominate and bankrupt the middle class. They couldn't endorse states and favor districts that help push their agendas. Take California (Sacramento) for example.

Make American Great Again... Well how do you do that when you don't address those two major issues? You can't change anything in a great way without dealing with those two issues.

In RDP language: It's time to put the old prop back on. The one we tried sucks. LOL

 

[RCDave]

End the Federal Reserve, end the bullshit. Can you imagine America w/ no Fed and a simplified tax code? What a great place it would be (again). The Federal Gov could no longer fund their own agendas to dominate and bankrupt the middle class. They couldn't endorse states and favor districts that help push their agendas. Take California (Sacramento) for example.

Make American Great Again... Well how do you do that when you don't address those two major issues? You can't change anything in a great way without dealing with those two issues.

In RDP language: It's time to put the old prop back on. The one we tried sucks. LOL

Amen brother

 

[D19]

And to think this all ties back into the titanic going down. Epic

Yeah the truth in that event is incredible.

This all goes back to the Akkadian Empire. Far before the Egyptian and Roman Empires which all follow in it's foot steps. One commonality is that they want total control over the people.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

It goes back all the way to the Akkadian Empire. Far before the Egyptian and Roman Empires which all follow in it's foot steps. One commonality is that they want total control over the people.

It goes back to the dawn of man honestly. It is all the same struggle, just on different scales.

 

[Cdog]

End the Federal Reserve, end the bullshit. Can you imagine America w/ no Fed and a simplified tax code? What a great place it would be (again). The Federal Gov could no longer fund their own agendas to dominate and bankrupt the middle class. They couldn't endorse states and favor districts that help push their agendas. Take California (Sacramento) for example.

Make American Great Again... Well how do you do that when you don't address those two major issues? You can't change anything in a great way without dealing with those two issues.

In RDP language: It's time to put the old prop back on. The one we tried sucks. LOL

All great ideas. Sadly it was fucked before we got here and understood what is going on. Weak men, on the way to bad times.

 

[D19]

It goes back to the dawn of man honestly. It is all the same struggle, just on different scales.

Yes. I agree. It all starts in the heart of man. I was just talking in terms of large government and used the Akkadians as an example, but you are right (in my/our opinion). LOL

 

[Ace in the Hole]

I’m hoping we make it through 2022

The more I see with interest rates, and the incompetence of the current administration in terms of the economy make me question how rapid it can/will come. Stevie wonder can seen it coming in 20/20...We're doing all we can to prepare for it. For the first time in many years I accepted a w2 corporate position for some long term stability (ill still be doing other stuff as always).

Housing costs, fuel costs, food costs, etc etc.. Everything has gone stupid and there will be a breaking point. I know a few friends who are majorly over leveraged and finally waking up to the reality of what's to come..I'm watching them list their toys with payments in increasing numbers.

 

[YumaRivernaut]

Possibly people should focus a bit more on the spiritual and little less on all things temporal.
People are probably going to need to shore that up in future for what is coming.

And it is coming.
Just my 2 cents though.

 

[530RL]

America experienced one of the worst recessions in our history in 2020 with the economy contracting more than 31 percent in the second quarter after contracting 5 percent in the first quarter.

If there is another, it will unlikely come anywhere near as bad as that one.

 

[jetboatperformance]

Partly Mind set , sheeples will panic .... the rest live like theres no tommorow ....

 

[Happy Smitty]

From a contractors point of view I'm not seeing any major slowdown. Right now there is a bit of balancing going on but no stopping in sight. Maybe in 2024.?.?

 

[Ace in the Hole]

A good friend of mine is the main HVAC supplier to the Hawaiian islands. Projects there are being mothballed as we speak.

Hawaii is a unique deal and gets impacted in a different timeline than the mainland does/will historically. Just something to think about. HVAC is also only really used on certain sections of islands..I never had it until my last townhouse while living there..and we just did window units for like 2 months of the year at night to sleep. High rise projects are slowing/getting shelved though and that will definitely impact your friend. Single family is wild on Oahu right now.

 

[Looking Glass]

The more I see with interest rates, and the incompetence of the current administration in terms of the economy make me question how rapid it can/will come. Stevie wonder can seen it coming in 20/20...We're doing all we can to prepare for it. For the first time in many years I accepted a w2 corporate position for some long term stability (ill still be doing other stuff as always).

Housing costs, fuel costs, food costs, etc etc.. Everything has gone stupid and there will be a breaking point. I know a few friends who are majorly over leveraged and finally waking up to the reality of what's to come..I'm watching them list their toys with payments in increasing numbers.

Are you saying that "Elections Do Have Consequences"?

When things were Humming Along there were plenty who didn't think so.

 

[Cdog]

Hawaii is a unique deal and gets impacted in a different timeline than the mainland does/will historically. Just something to think about. HVAC is also only really used on certain sections of islands..I never had it until my last townhouse while living there..and we just did window units for like 2 months of the year at night to sleep. High rise projects are slowing/getting shelved though and that will definitely impact your friend. Single family is wild on Oahu right now.

These are big builder projects on the main island. All new construction. He says the only projects moving forward are the pre paid/sold projects. I don’t have the particulars but his family is in a unique position and have a finger on the pulse.

 

[TCHB]

it Is about time interest rates go up. Way too many years of free money.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Partly Mind set , sheeples will panic .... the rest live like theres no tommorow ....

Exactly!! I just took a sizable amount of our cash savings to purchase a business. Of course I am kind of stressed since my buyers can't find homes and mortgage applications are WAY down, but not getting anywhere without taking chances. YOLO!!!!

 

[Ace in the Hole]

These are big builder projects on the main island. All new construction. He says the only projects moving forward are the pre paid/sold projects. I don’t have the particulars but his family is in a unique position and have a finger on the pulse.

I understand what you mean..most projects on Oahu (which I'm assuming you mean since you called it the "main" island) are pre-sold often via lottery (especially tower projects) but they haven't been selling out like they previously would which is not a good sign at all.. I know a lot of huge projects have been put on hold or scrapped as a whole recently.

 

[EmpirE231]

it Is about time interest rates go up. Way too many years of free money.

now only if they can bump up interest rates on savings accounts and money market accounts as fast....

 

[warpt71]

I have a house to sell in the next 4 months, after that, I hope it dips and I can pick up my next house. I will be able to rent something for a year and sit on my profits until the right deal comes around. At least thats my plan...........and this is Havasu specific

 

[REVENGE 97]

It should happen petty soon so the Damn Dems can try and repair it before the 24 elections so they can look like hero's. Typical Damn Dem move, destroy it then make it look and seem like they fixed it to try and take credit for saving the world......FJB!

 

[HNL2LHC]

I know a few friends who are majorly over leveraged and finally waking up to the reality of what's to come..I'm watching them list their toys with payments in increasing numbers.

“List toys with payments”….so you are saying they are not RDP members? :lookking:

 

[Havasu blue label]

Don’t panic there is people that sat on the side lines with cash and didn’t move out of California to be a baller in the new state