2023 recession?

[hallett21]

About 30 percent of second homes in havasu where bought by two families

Where do you get that stat?

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Where do you get that stat?

His ass, like everything else he says on here. This guy wants Havasu to fail so badly, it is comical.

 

[RiverDave]

About 30 percent of second homes in havasu where bought by two families

Lol. What?

I think maybe one of the houses we sold last year was a joint venture?

 

[Singleton]

About 30 percent of second homes in havasu where bought by two families

I call BS on that data point.
Maybe 30% were purchased by dual income (husband and wife both working) households, but 2 families is pure BS.

 

[Wheeler]

Some get it right 100% of the time. others not so much.

I hope I'm one of the fortunate.

 

[Your ad here]

As someone who was on the front lines of the refinance boom, I can tell you with 100% certainty that 1st time buyers were not refinancing within a year or so and buying toys and cars. They were refinancing into lower rates / lower mortgage insurance or getting a lower rate and eliminating mortgage insurance altogether. I don't think that people give this generation enough credit. A lot of them saw what happened to their family and friends in 2008 and know not to make the same mistakes. Granted, there are people that probably refinanced, took cash out and bought a toy, but the majority didn't. I know that it is tough for a lot of people on this site to believe, but those are the facts.

Great thing about life is that NOBODY can predict the future. Tomorrow is not guaranteed. Enjoy life, take chances and don't worry about the things that you can't control, that is how I live.

I was a 1st time buyer (2019) that refinanced in 2021. Dropped my rate from 4.49% with 28 years left to a 2.99% rate reset to 25 years. Dropped my monthly payment 12% and took 3 years off the loan.
I didn't take any money out but I did buy a boat with money I didn't physically earn. My savings account that is invested in the stock market grew in value pretty well along with my IRA. Boat cost less than what the savings account grew in a year. I bet there are plenty more people than me out there that happened to as well...

 

[Havasu blue label]

just a smart investor .

 

[brgrcru]

So it's all Trumps fault?

Well it was bushes fault . So the commies have to blame trump . Now.

Makes them feel better. With the complete disaster of a party and administration, that is running our country now.
Fucking Idiots

 

[DWC]

Some get it right 100% of the time. others not so much.

I hope I'm one of the fortunate.
View attachment 1113492

? Did you pick up a new toy?

 

[Wheeler]

? Did you pick up a new toy?

oh hell no! I'm in the selling mood. I own way too much crap and don't want my siblings to have to deal with it when I'm gone.

 

[CarolynandBob]

As someone who was on the front lines of the refinance boom, I can tell you with 100% certainty that 1st time buyers were not refinancing within a year or so and buying toys and cars. They were refinancing into lower rates / lower mortgage insurance or getting a lower rate and eliminating mortgage insurance altogether. I don't think that people give this generation enough credit. A lot of them saw what happened to their family and friends in 2008 and know not to make the same mistakes. Granted, there are people that probably refinanced, took cash out and bought a toy, but the majority didn't. I know that it is tough for a lot of people on this site to believe, but those are the facts.

Great thing about life is that NOBODY can predict the future. Tomorrow is not guaranteed. Enjoy life, take chances and don't worry about the things that you can't control, that is how I live.

This is a big country. What area do you cover? Maybe your area is better educated to not make the mistake of using your house as an ATM.

However, the commercials on the radio are being paid for by people doing just that. We also heard what you are saying back in 2006-2007 ish. Not you specifically, but from mortgage brokers.

I HOPE I am wrong. I want everyone to prosper and enjoy nice things. Live BELOW your means and it will turn out good in the end.

 

[pronstar]

If a buyer can stay in their purchase long enough, they should be fine. That is what always scared me about rentals...I didn't make enough to cover the other doors without a renter. With the eviction BS they did, I would have gone ballistic. By the time things got to where I could make that kind of move, values here skyrocketed, so I held off. Maybe this next cycle? No matter what. There will be opportunities for some, and headache for others. Pretty sure it's always been that way.

If you wait long enough, even the worst real estate asset will eventually become a good asset…but it may take longer than your lifetime LOL

If you have no money in the deal, and are using bank debt, then it’s no skin off you back if shit goes sideways and you have to walk. That’s business.

And if you have no money in the deal, even a $1 profit is an infinite ROI.

Your loan dictates what happens when you make payments, and also when you’re unable to.

 

[Go-Fly]

This is a big country. What area do you cover? Maybe your area is better educated to not make the mistake of using your house as an ATM.

However, the commercials on the radio are being paid for by people doing just that. We also heard what you are saying back in 2006-2007 ish. Not you specifically, but from mortgage brokers.

I HOPE I am wrong. I want everyone to prosper and enjoy nice things. Live BELOW your means and it will turn out good in the end.

This is a big country. Back in 2006 people who had been renting for 15 years were buying. They had excellent credit and good buying powers. Not newbies just never did the home thing. I can remember the Credit unions had greeters at the doors passing out home equity loan flyers. They gave people check books that they could write a check for anything they wanted. Houses doubled in cost and yes, first time home buyers were taking equity out like a vending machine. Some people sat and watched the show. I do agree with the statement that new homeowners were NOT refinancing their underlying loan the first year they got it. They took out a different loan. A lot of people lost their first home and went back to renting. If they would of stayed with the original fixed rate loan, they would of been OK. I also remember in 2006 jet skies and ATVs stacked up at the dealers like cord wood. People buying two at a time and paying cash they didnt have.

 

[c_land]

Both of the below readings out this morning. Fed funds Rate is getting cranked. June 15th is both FOMC announcement and one of the roll off operations of this QT cycle.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1535238071829966851

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1535264046949318656

 

[angiebaby]

Janet Yellen says no recession. Nothing to worry about folks. I'm going to go and change my earlier vote.

Thank God the adults are in charge now

 

[monkeyswrench]

Both of the below readings out this morning. Fed funds Rate is getting cranked. June 15th is both FOMC announcement and one of the roll off operations of this QT cycle.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1535238071829966851

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1535264046949318656

Does that first one's CPI, "Ex-food and energy..." mean "excluding" food and energy?
Where do they hide those numbers?

 

[just_floatin]

> 261,000 new unemployment applications reported mid-May. If the government says one thing, it is surely going to be the opposite.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1535263093206417410

Jobless Claims in US Climb to Highest Level Since January

Applications for US state unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose last week to the highest level since January, led by increased filings in Kentucky and California.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[MSum661]

Janet Yellen says no recession. Nothing to worry about folks. I'm going to go and change my earlier vote.

Thank God the adults are in charge now

The fed cannot fix this without a recession.
After next weeks rate hike I believe the anti-recession crowd will start to witness demand destruction going into the two July Fed meetings and into the Sept. & Nov meetings. The soft landing crowd will be proven wrong again and employment number will be affected.

 

[CLdrinker]

Don’t worry everything is fine.

 

[Havasu blue label]

Like mr orange has mentioned everybody has a fixed rate at 3 percent according to him we should be chilling . Don’t forget the housing market will not hit the lows as expected

 

[Done-it-again]

besides inflation what I’m started to see more on LinkedIn, is the amount of layoffs that are happening. This is could be concerning if it keeps going.

Then it doesn’t matter if you have a 3% interest rate.

 

[Looking Glass]

One of the most important jobs of a Money Manager/Advisor is to keep optimistic and to give the Customer the confidence that there will always be "Up's and Downs" and everything will be just fine in the "Big Picture" Tough Job!!

I can not help but worry if this Incredible Disaster is totally the result of an Administration that is Inept, OR Worse, this is a well-thought-out Plan? The sad question I have is will the results be just as brutally damaging on whichever one it is.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

besides inflation what I’m started to see more on LinkedIn, is the amount of layoffs that are happening. This is could be concerning if it keeps going.

Then it doesn’t matter if you have a 3% interest rate.

People aren’t going to walk away from equity, if that is carried over from riding the wave up the last 10 years, or sitting on a 4 years to a decade worth of equity from a single purchase.

People with jobs were walking away last time. That isn’t happening this time when rent is more than your house payment.

If it gets bad there will be another forclosure moratorium, watch.

 

[Bpracing1127]

People aren’t going to walk away from equity, if that is carried over from riding the wave up the last 10 years, or sitting on a 4 years to a decade worth of equity from a single purchase.

People with jobs were walking away last time. That isn’t happening this time when rent is more than your house payment.

If it gets bad there will be another forclosure moratorium, watch.

What do you do if you no longer can afford your house due to inflation and can’t move because rent is higher? Something has to give

 

[Gonefishin5555]

What do you do if you no longer can afford your house due to inflation and can’t move because rent is higher? Something has to give

inflation makes paying your mortgage easier cause your wages increase but your payment is fixed. I think you mean losing your job? That would be a problem. They will do a foreclosure moratorium and you can float up to 18-24 months. Rent a couple rooms out if you can. In the end you will sell and cash out your equity and buy a 100k boat and a yeti

 

[Havasu blue label]

Sleeping in mr orange

 

[Bpracing1127]

Pretty sure people are not getting raises to combat this inflation tho

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Sleeping in mr orange

I think you are a 12 pack ahead of me already

 

[Your ad here]

besides inflation what I’m started to see more on LinkedIn, is the amount of layoffs that are happening. This is could be concerning if it keeps going.

Then it doesn’t matter if you have a 3% interest rate.

Loosing your job is never a good thing but having a low fixed interest rate and a mortgage less than rent makes the pain a lot less than the 2008 market and easier to recover from. 2008 had adjustable interest rates, stated income mortgages, and mortgages that became more than rent...

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

What do you do if you no longer can afford your house due to inflation and can’t move because rent is higher? Something has to give

Rent is never going down. Your mortgaged house is a fixed cost. If that is your situation you have a couple options. Make sacrifices in other parts of your life, or bring more people into the house to cover costs.

Or move to a market where housing is cheaper.

 

[Your ad here]

What do you do if you no longer can afford your house due to inflation and can’t move because rent is higher? Something has to give

Don't see how one would be unable to move but if you cant afford your current living situation just move somewhere you can afford.

 

[angiebaby]

What do you do if you no longer can afford your house due to inflation and can’t move because rent is higher? Something has to give

You move out onto BLM land in your RV. Even if you stop making payments on your RV, they will have a difficult time finding it to repossess it. I was telling Jeff a couple of months ago (as we were driving by all of the RV dwellers living on BLM land surrounding Havasu) that this will get worse. These will be the new homeless camps, much like Hoovervilles. Mark my words. It's already begun.

 

[just_floatin]

HONK HONK to “WE” if you think we are not headed into a Jimmy Carter seventies stagflation recession.

Have you researched the parallels. History has a way of, well you know the rest. Same goberment BS different year.

FLASHBACK: NYT Tried to Spin 1970s Stagflation to Protect Jimmy Carter Too

Remember when The New York Times attempted to spin the 1970s stagflation crisis in order to protect former President Jimmy Carter’s political image before the 1980 elections? MRC Business does.

www.newsbusters.org

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1534269367608823813

 

[BingerFang]

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

You move out onto BLM land in your RV. Even if you stop making payments on your RV, they will have a difficult time finding it to repossess it. I was telling Jeff a couple of months ago (as we were driving by all of the RV dwellers living on BLM land surrounding Havasu) that this will get worse. These will be the new homeless camps, much like Hoovervilles. Mark my words. It's already begun.

This. And if you cant afford your house, rent it or sell it.

 

[regor]

"The Fed Now Has Good Reason To Surprise Markets": Barclays Is First Bank To Call For 75bps Next Week​

We realize it is a close call and that it could play out in either June or July. But we are changing our forecast to call for a 75bp hike on June 15. We have also lifted our forecast for the terminal rate by 25bp, to 3.00-3.25%, in early 2023.

FRI JUN 10, AT 8:33 AM

"The economy is in a better place than it has been historically."

 

[MSum661]

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Makes sense.
As the consumer savings rate crashes to 2008 levels the easy go-to mechanism for the crowd to resort to and keep swimming is Plastic.

 

[Done-it-again]

Loosing your job is never a good thing but having a low fixed interest rate and a mortgage less than rent makes the pain a lot less than the 2008 market and easier to recover from. 2008 had adjustable interest rates, stated income mortgages, and mortgages that became more than rent...

I agree. But when said person looses his job at 200k yr and only gets a job to get by making 130k. That house payment is still what it is and maybe not affordable anymore

Most of the time said person lives in the means with what they currently make, not when they have to take a cut.

Can they sell with equity in there current home, sure only if they have been there for min of 2 years. If you just bought then it might be a small loss with realtor fees.

All hypothetical.

 

[badgas]

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

That's the American way !

If you can't afford it then go in debt.

Cars, Phones, TV's, exercise equipment , vacations, food, clothing etc.

keep kicking the can.

 

[Your ad here]

I agree. But when said person looses his job at 200k yr and only gets a job to get by making 130k. That house payment is still what it is and maybe not affordable anymore

Most of the time said person lives in the means with what they currently make, not when they have to take a cut.

Can they sell with equity in there current home, sure only if they have been there for min of 2 years. If you just bought then it might be a small loss with realtor fees.

All hypothetical.

See post #680 in this thread.

 

[bowtiejunkie]

Mortgage vs Rent:

I think people here are assuming rent for any (most?) home owners will be higher than a mortgage payment. If you are currently affording a $4k mortgage, but lose job(s) and can’t afford the payment, you’re likely selling or walking away. If you can rent for $2.5k or even $3k, you just decreased your savings burn rate (if you have savings). How would you tap any home equity to live on when jobless without selling?

Maintenance isn’t covered in a mortgage payment either. That maintenance can add additional burden in distressed (jobless) times. With renting, maintenance is close to nothing (especially apartment living).

Many variables. But, remember most people are horrible with their personal finances. RDP, certainly doesn’t represent the average Joe or Jane.

In other news, federal student loan payments still have not re-started. How many of the over 700,000 recipients of loan relief in last year (totaling $17 billion) are on brink of financial Armageddon? They’ll be pulling more spending out of the overall market if student loan payments start again Sept 1st.

 

[just_floatin]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1535330910421360646

 

[Havasu blue label]

You can’t sell a house if the value drops 50 percent even with a fixed rate try again

 

[Done-it-again]

See post #280 in this thread.

That you only live once?

I do live by that to a point and also that tomorrow is never guaranteed. Still needs balance though.

 

[Your ad here]

That you only live once?

I do live by that to a point and also that tomorrow is never guaranteed. Still needs balance though.

Whoops! I meant 680.

 

[regor]

 

[Done-it-again]

Whoops! I meant 680.

Those are good ideas, but can they be done? I wouldn’t know who to bring in to live with our family? Diffinitly no Craigslist people, no family members either. I would mostly likely would sell for something less expensive.

There a sacrifices you can make, but if the 4K mortgage can’t be had by your new job then and need a 2500 mortgage. That 1500 is hard to do.

That’s not sacrificing, and more of a life style change. That’s harder to do.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Those are good ideas, but can they be done? I wouldn’t know who to bring in to live with our family? Diffinitly no Craigslist people, no family members either. I would mostly likely would sell for something less expensive.

There a sacrifices you can make, but if the 4K mortgage can’t be had by your new job then and need a 2500 mortgage. That 1500 is hard to do.

That’s not sacrificing, and more of a life style change. That’s harder to do.

Some think living within their means is a sacrifice.

 

[bowtiejunkie]

You can’t sell a house if the value drops 50 percent even with a fixed rate try again

Well, for one, if you still have equity after a 50% drop in value, you can sell easily. Two, a short sale is possible if negative equity and the lender approves.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

Those are good ideas, but can they be done? I wouldn’t know who to bring in to live with our family? Diffinitly no Craigslist people, no family members either. I would mostly likely would sell for something less expensive.

There a sacrifices you can make, but if the 4K mortgage can’t be had by your new job then and need a 2500 mortgage. That 1500 is hard to do.

That’s not sacrificing, and more of a life style change. That’s harder to do.

Get a rich girlfriend and have her move in and pay rent. Problem solved AND you get blow jobs.. Or for the married guys the wife has to go back to work or already works so one spouse taking a pay cut is not gonna kill the household income. Also foreclosure moratorium is coming soon...you can stop paying mortgage and drag it out doing a loan mod... i did this after my divorce it was cheap money and I now have $1M of equity in the house. It was a bit nerve racking to do this but it worked well in the end.

In many areas a 4K mortgage is better than renting a shitty 2br apt for 3K. I think its people with the $6K or higher monthly nut that is going to be causing problems.