2023 recession?

[4Waters]

Fox was talking about it this morning, they interviewed several politicians R & D and they all said it appears it's coming.

 

[lbhsbz]

Fox was talking about it this morning, they interviewed several politicians R & D and they all said it appears it's coming.

Meh…don’t really give a shit. I’ve positioned myself to weather the storm. Don’t give a shit what my house is worth…I can afford the fixed rate mortgage payment. If it doesn’t double in value in 10 years it will in 20….if So Cal has any running water still at that point.

All my other shit is payed for.

 

[HotRod82]

Rates are getting cranked next Wednesday.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520019584870494210

Yep. Half a point next week and another full point by the end of the year is the current forecast. Going to be interesting to watch.....

 

[HTMike]

Everything is going to slow wayy down. This would be a great time to start paying off debt.

 

[jet496]

House inventories, on the market, have built quickly in the last couple weeks & I suspect it'll just keep growing as people won't be able to sell at the ASTRONOMICAL asking prices they are listing.

We want to move, but will wait at least another year.

 

[MSum661]

Futures are signaling fed’s benchmark rate will climb to 2% by July, something that seemed unimaginable just a month ago.
For that to happen they'll have to raise by a half a percentage point at each of next 3 fed meetings starting next week.

 

[jet496]

Futures are signaling fed’s benchmark rate will climb to 2% by July, something that seemed unimaginable just a month ago.
For that to happen they'll have to raise by a half a percentage point at each of next 3 fed meetings starting next week.

On the plus side, CD rates will rise. I remember when they were 7% on 1 year CD's which isn't a bad return. Savings interest rates will rise as well.

 

[MSum661]

On the plus side, CD rates will rise. I remember when they were 7% on 1 year CD's which isn't a bad return. Savings interest rates will rise as well.

Powell can't set rates that high without breaking something first, I think his target is 3.5%, but your right about the savings rates coming back.
Back in 2006 when Bernake was the fed CD rates were around 4-5% and it was a nice hedge against a failing RE market as we sold our home in 2006.

 

[Your ad here]

On the plus side, CD rates will rise. I remember when they were 7% on 1 year CD's which isn't a bad return. Savings interest rates will rise as well.

I have a couple grand sitting in a CD. I knew it was making at least .10% of interest... I checked it the other day after who knows how long and noticed it's paying .030% of interest. Talk about going broke safely if you have a large sum in a CD.

 

[boatdoc55]

Everything is going to slow wayy down. This would be a great time to start paying off debt.

What debt???? I can't wait for HYSAs to come WAY up!!!!

 

[c_land]

In addition to raising the federal funds rate 50bps today, the federal reserve will begin unwinding its balance sheet at the fastest pace ever. Balance sheet reduction is starting off at the max that was set in the 2017-2018 period. 2018 is when they had to pull the plug because the market was undwinding and credit was freezing.

June 2017:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20170614.htm

• For payments of principal that the Federal Reserve receives from maturing Treasury securities, the Committee anticipates that the cap will be $6 billion per month initially and will increase in steps of $6 billion at three-month intervals over 12 months until it reaches $30 billion per month.
• For payments of principal that the Federal Reserve receives from its holdings of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, the Committee anticipates that the cap will be $4 billion per month initially and will increase in steps of $4 billion at three-month intervals over 12 months until it reaches $20 billion per month.

May 2022:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20220504b.htm

• For Treasury securities, the cap will initially be set at $30 billion per month and after three months will increase to $60 billion per month. The decline in holdings of Treasury securities under this monthly cap will include Treasury coupon securities and, to the extent that coupon maturities are less than the monthly cap, Treasury bills.
• For agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, the cap will initially be set at $17.5 billion per month and after three months will increase to $35 billion per month.

 

[kurtis500]

im seeing more homes with decreased prices and longer time on the market. More open houses also..

Im thinking the slow down already begun. i wonder how far it will go, they never get the predictions just right.

 

[kurtis500]

BTW, werent mortgages in the 6-7% back in the 90's? I thought I locked my first house in around that... and it was a good number at the time with good credit and etc.

 

[HTMike]

BTW, werent mortgages in the 6-7% back in the 90's? I thought I locked my first house in around that... and it was a good number at the time with good credit and etc.

I had 5.75% on a 15 year in 2003.

 

[sdsnet]

The big problem is the Fed's actions are limited when it comes to raising interest rates. They can raise rates in small amounts but if they raise rates a full percentage point it will increase the national debt by an additional 30 trillion dollars and crash the stock markets which also impacts other countries' markets. All large countries are in a troublesome spot after so many decades of creating money out of thin air. The U.S. is in first place that's for sure.

Purposefully creating a housing bubble by handing out enormous loans at low interest rates to Blackrock and Vanguard is practically treason. They bought up entire neighborhoods of starter homes which prevents the next generation from purchasing their first home and building wealth. And they did this knowing what it would do to later generations. And this is only the housing bubble. The stock market is also highly overinflated and when bubbles burst lives are ruined and others wait in the shadows to take advantage of the losses and wealth is transferred when the markets recover.

The problem is not capitalism. It is a lack of morals, integrity, professionalism and grace. And evil people.

 

[MSum661]

In addition to raising the federal funds rate 50bps today, the federal reserve will begin unwinding its balance sheet at the fastest pace ever. Balance sheet reduction is starting off at the max that was set in the 2017-2018 period. 2018 is when they had to pull the plug because the market was undwinding and credit was freezing.

June 2017:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20170614.htm


May 2022:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20220504b.htm

The Fed cannot fix our broken banking system.
Its own balance sheet, $9 Trillion large, is ten times bigger than it was before the 2008 financial crises.
Now the Fed tells us it can reverse course and unwind those "emergency measures" it first launched back in 2008.....lol, most doubt the Fed will get very far.
The new expansion of unregulated money to lend created by shadow banks that operate like a bank but "without complying" to any bank regulation like Lehman and Bear Stearns has now put the Fed on alert......to backstop it's issuers. "Back stop it's Issuers"!
So, not only has the Fed’s lending not been enough to keep this mess moving, they'll also need to cover the "unregulated shadow banks" if anything starts to go South and breaks as they push through 50bps after 50bps after 50bps rate hikes well into 2023.

Not only is the Fed broken, but the current unregulated shadow banking system is broken too.

​

 

[foxfam312]

Maybe we should all get on the topic of precious metals, Gold, silver, Platinum, Palladium, is anybody here have a solid knowledge of this?

 

[Boatymcboatface]

When I start getting my Del Taco coupons in the mail again I’ll be happy! I’ll also know we’re heading for a recession. Then those will be followed by the 30k pool build adds in the by one get one flyer.

Sorry for quoting myself but! This just showed up today!!

 

[c_land]

Facebook slows hiring, blaming Apple, war, and its stock price

 

[Bowtiepower00]

It’s coming. Will it be different than 08? Sure. Could it be worse than 08? Absolutely. Who knows at this point. All I know is I’m preparing for the worst.

 

[EmpirE231]

It’s coming. Will it be different than 08? Sure. Could it be worse than 08? Absolutely. Who knows at this point. All I know is I’m preparing for the worst.

I agree with this!

 

[Roosky01]

Me thinks the recession is going to shift into gear before 2023. The .5 rate hike, the economy growing negatively in the first quarter, the record number of people resigning in March while there were over 11 million jobs unfilled , all combined with the inflationary pressure is like watching all the trains speeding towards each other.

Shift and protect your investments, batten down the hatches, stock up on MRE meals, and pray for the light at the other end of the tunnel. As with any recession, there is huge upside and opportunity for those that have prepared and have the means. Not sure exactly what those are as of yet, but they will present themselves. It will be interesting to see how the crypto market performs in this scenario as precious metals have usually been the hedge?

If the Ukraime war goes parabolic then all bets are off....

 

[Done-it-again]

Me thinks the recession is going to shift into gear before 2023. The .5 rate hike, the economy growing negatively in the first quarter, the record number of people resigning in March while there were over 11 million jobs unfilled , all combined with the inflationary pressure is like watching all the trains speeding towards each other.

Shift and protect your investments, batten down the hatches, stock up on MRE meals, and pray for the light at the other end of the tunnel. As with any recession, there is huge upside and opportunity for those that have prepared and have the means. Not sure exactly what those are as of yet, but they will present themselves. It will be interesting to see how the crypto market performs in this scenario as precious metals have usually been the hedge?

If the Ukraime war goes parabolic then all bets are off....

We had a recession in 2020. Did shit hit the fan then? We need one to curve inflation, we just don’t need a collapse. If we can walk that line we should be good.

 

[4Waters]

On Fox 11 this morning

The 80k in debt does not include a mortgage

 

[Roosky01]

We had a recession in 2020. Did shit hit the fan then? We need one to curve inflation, we just don’t need a collapse. If we can walk that line we should be good.

I truly hope you are right, Sir and that I am wrong.

 

[Done-it-again]

I truly hope you are right, Sir and that I am wrong.

I’ve been wrong more times than not. Just following what’s happened most recently.

If what I head (people smarter than me) is that rates need to be higer than the inflation % to curve it. How’s that going to work IDK, but some thing needs to happen. I expect the feds to raise points next time at .75 as this .50 was a test to see how it plays out.

What I do not expect or wishing for is a collaps as some are here are wanting.
I’m running the business now for 5yrs. and I’m not sure I can handle 07-08 collapse like my father did.

 

[JDKRXW]

We had a recession in 2020. Did shit hit the fan then? We need one to curve inflation, we just don’t need a collapse. If we can walk that line we should be good.

This was a recession 'on paper'.
The fed gov. in every country in the world competed with each other to see who could give away the most money to backstop what they thought was going to be the collapse of the free world.
IMO, they all pissed 75% of it away - and this is exactly what caused the supply chain problems we're having right now.

 

[Looking Glass]

I overhear people talking "Everywhere", the Supermarket, Fueling, Walmart ETC. people are worried and also are trying everything from clipping coupons to switching to "Store Brands" to "?" and from what I observe it crosses All lines of people,

Damn, this is getting to look like "California" and Not "One" Thing it is "Everything"

 

[TPC]

More things are available, tradesmen are available, hotel rooms available,, in the past that was a sign economy is slowing down.

 

[bonesfab]

On Fox 11 this morning

The 80k in debt does not include a mortgage

View attachment 1113108

I am going to have to step up my game.

 

[cofooter]

On Fox 11 this morning

The 80k in debt does not include a mortgage

View attachment 1113108

Can't be RDP members.........

 

[530RL]

More things are available, tradesmen are available, hotel rooms available,, in the past that was a sign economy is slowing down.

Certainly not my experience. Nor the current statistics?

But if true, that would help bring down inflation as we can not keep up the current pace of business activity without an influx of new labor as there is none left in America that is currently available.

Record high U.S. job openings, resignations likely to fuel wage inflation

U.S. job openings increased to a record high in March as worker shortages persisted, suggesting that employers could continue to raise wages and help keep inflation uncomfortably high.

www.reuters.com

 

[MSum661]

I overhear people talking "Everywhere", the Supermarket, Fueling, Walmart ETC. people are worried and also are trying everything from clipping coupons to switching to "Store Brands" to "?" and from what I observe it crosses All lines of people,

Damn, this is getting to look like "California" and Not "One" Thing it is "Everything"

Bubbling markets blindly climb up like an Escalator,
.......and fall like an Elevator.

 

[lbhsbz]

On Fox 11 this morning

The 80k in debt does not include a mortgage

View attachment 1113108

Finally…I’m above average at something. No debt except the mortgage.

That number looks big, but when you look at what new cars cost…it doesn’t sound as bad. I could go buy a new f250 and be 80K in debt tomorrow.

 

[monkeyswrench]

The "average" American has 80k in debt?!
I've never been so happy to be a below average American...it's finally paying off

The inflation and interest rate hikes are needed to pay down the debt. There are problems with that though. In order for the hole to be filled, they have to quit digging. They raise it quickly, and things stop. In order for them to make a dent, both inflation and interest will have to be much higher.

As it's been said, it may be the same impact as 07-08, or it may not. It isn't the same causes though. The triggers seem much different. What I fear isn't the downturn, it's the combination of other variables. Supply chain, food production, war...
I don't have serious investments to protect or lose value. I have my family to worry about. That said, regardless of the cause or nature of this cycle, I'm not "ready", but more "prepared".

 

[hallett21]

I believe total consumer debt divided by population equals 80k.

I find it hard to believe people are carrying the average household income in debt. Put another way a family house hold making 90k has 80k in non mortgage debt.

Maybe they do

But a family earning 800k a year could have 200-300k in debt. That’s a lot but it’s manageable and it skews the stat.

 

[Orange Juice]

Most current mortgages are locked in, and under 4%. There’s not going to be a huge dumping of homes on the market.

Throw in unemployment and job security, and its easy to realize housing is going to be expensive for the foreseeable future.

 

[4Waters]

Finally…I’m above average at something. No debt except the mortgage.

That number looks big, but when you look at what new cars cost…it doesn’t sound as bad. I could go buy a new f250 and be 80K in debt tomorrow.

The "average" American has 80k in debt?!
I've never been so happy to be a below average American...it's finally paying off

The inflation and interest rate hikes are needed to pay down the debt. There are problems with that though. In order for the hole to be filled, they have to quit digging. They raise it quickly, and things stop. In order for them to make a dent, both inflation and interest will have to be much higher.

As it's been said, it may be the same impact as 07-08, or it may not. It isn't the same causes though. The triggers seem much different. What I fear isn't the downturn, it's the combination of other variables. Supply chain, food production, war...
I don't have serious investments to protect or lose value. I have my family to worry about. That said, regardless of the cause or nature of this cycle, I'm not "ready", but more "prepared".

I've got 3k of debt, so I'm looking good too

 

[Looking Glass]

Bubbling markets blindly climb up like an Escalator,
.......and fall like an Elevator.

The Best Line, I have heard, and possibly has been quoted in here before, by Warren Buffet "We Are Going To See Who's Been, Swimming Naked"

 

[MSum661]

California Foreclosure numbers continue to accelerate to the upside from 13,494 on 2/23/22, to 15,001 on 5/5/22.

Listings also continue to climb higher from 26,950 to 30,712
& Recently Sold Properties dropped from 480,698 to 459,772 in the same time frame.



72 day time period

 

[EmpirE231]

Are rates only going up from here?

Some people believe this will be a repeat of what we had a few years ago, in which rates rise for a short period, we have "recession" and then they dump rates back to zero and print trillions of dollars again to "save" the economy.

or.... is this the 70's/80's where they actually tried to fix inflation by raising rates to the moon and keeping them there

 

[RCDave]

The first one

 

[Waterjunky]

About all I can say for sure is things are changing rapidly and its going to be a wild ride.

 

[cofooter]

The first one

Correct, problem is they are always 6 mths behind the curve........

 

[HTMike]

What I do not expect or wishing for is a collaps as some are here are wanting.
I’m running the business now for 5yrs. and I’m not sure I can handle 07-08 collapse like my father did.

People can wish all they want but the reality is we all are just passengers on this roller coaster. Its all going to crash and crash hard. The powers that be set it up to be this way and nothing can be done to change it. This time around everyone except the .001% will be led to slaughter.

 

[HTMike]

Are rates only going up from here?

Some people believe this will be a repeat of what we had a few years ago, in which rates rise for a short period, we have "recession" and then they dump rates back to zero and print trillions of dollars again to "save" the economy.

or.... is this the 70's/80's where they actually tried to fix inflation by raising rates to the moon and keeping them there

Rates will be near 10% by the end of the year and continue climbing.

 

[rivrrts429]

You guys are a little much on the panic. It’s totally out of our control and there’s little we can do to prepare for the worst. Ya’ll need to get busy living instead of dying. Replace the word recession with the word Covid in some of these posts and it feels like March of 2020 all over again lol

If you’ve been responsible the last 10 years there’s nothing to worry about. Those of you who’ve been living a little large are the ones who should be concerned.

Right now is the busiest time to sell a home. People want to be settled in to their new homes before the new school year begins.

It would be interesting to quantify homes for sale by comparing inventory numbers year over year or the past three years.

Go live life. Trying to control the uncontrollable is pissing into the wind.

 

[EmpirE231]

Rates will be near 10% by the end of the year and continue climbing.

so you think they're actually gonna try and fix this mess? not just keep kicking it down the road...

 

[Havasu blue label]

It’s going to hit Havasu hard equity lines rates climbing quickly get your cash ready

 

[HTMike]

so you think they're actually gonna try and fix this mess? not just keep kicking it down the road...

They have followed through on every rate hike so far. They said 7 more by the end of the year. If every one is only .5 then we should be between 9 and 10 percent.