WELCOME TO RIVER DAVES PLACE

2023 recession?

Recession in 2023?

  • Yes

    Votes: 171 64.3%
  • No

    Votes: 54 20.3%
  • RDP Sux

    Votes: 74 27.8%

  • Total voters
    266

Done-it-again

Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 3, 2016
Messages
9,723
Reaction score
12,322
People talk about there being no workforce housing in Havasu... there is no workforce housing in all of So Cal.
Very true to most areas. You can find it in the high desert and saltine sea area, etc . But if you want to live and work in DTLA it’s not going to happen on that salary.

So. 125k yr is not/should not be buying a 650k home for the first time.
 

Looking Glass

1 = Well = Known = Member
Joined
Jan 6, 2020
Messages
9,729
Reaction score
16,932
I agree it’s nuts. I can’t afford certain locations so I live where I can. Maybe move out of CA? The hardest part for most new/young buyers is the down. They just can’t save it, even though some make damn good money. (250-350k combined).

I cannot afford CA commercial property so I’m looking in TX. I’m finding out that it’s moving sooo fast I can be left out again (unless I go to a different area in TX)

Damn I cannot offord a decent looking house in Havasu right now unless I want it to look like a 70’s palm desert home.

So I guess I’m saying you got to move to areas where it’s affordable to you. You might not like it at that time. But you move up in 5-10 yrs. Then do it again.


Nothing wrong with that!! Living with your Budget, enjoying life, maybe go out to eat once in a while and Have $'s left each month, and what else is there? I think of Steve Jobs occasionally, he had it all and in reality, had nothing.

The thing that amazes me is that so many take their "Home" for granted and can only think about the "Toys". The Home is so often just Taken for granted, until "Everything" gets serious.
Not just as the biggest investment most will ever make, but during "Covid" more than anytime I can remember, a "Home" to come back to every night is so Important, in so many ways. Maybe It is Everything!!:confused:
 

LargeOrangeFont

We aren't happy until you aren't happy
Joined
Sep 4, 2015
Messages
49,689
Reaction score
76,178
Very true to most areas. You can find it in the high desert and saltine sea area, etc . But if you want to live and work in DTLA it’s not going to happen on that salary.

So. 125k yr is not/should not be buying a 650k home for the first time.

I don’t even see how that is sustainable with fuel and tolls. Plus it turns your 8 hour work day into 13 hours.

The only option is what is happening... multiple generations stacking up in the same house.
 

grumpy88

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 10, 2013
Messages
6,189
Reaction score
8,156
I agree it’s nuts. I can’t afford certain locations so I live where I can. Maybe move out of CA? The hardest part for most new/young buyers is the down. They just can’t save it, even though some make damn good money. (250-350k combined).

I cannot afford CA commercial property so I’m looking in TX. I’m finding out that it’s moving sooo fast I can be left out again (unless I go to a different area in TX)

Damn I cannot offord a decent looking house in Havasu right now unless I want it to look like a 70’s palm desert home.

So I guess I’m saying you got to move to areas where it’s affordable to you. You might not like it at that time. But you move up in 5-10 yrs. Then do it again.
I agree with you but Canoga park is pretty low on the list of places to live . No disrespect to anybody who lives there . This is suppose to be one of those neighborhoods that people deal with the crime, traffic and illegal immigration because its affordable . At 900k not even close . So where is " affordable " honest question
 

LargeOrangeFont

We aren't happy until you aren't happy
Joined
Sep 4, 2015
Messages
49,689
Reaction score
76,178
I agree with you but Canoga park is pretty low on the list of places to live . No disrespect to anybody who lives there . This is suppose to be one of those neighborhoods that people deal with the crime, traffic and illegal immigration because its affordable . At 900k not even close . So where is " affordable " honest question

Define affordable, I guess. You talking about a family bringing in $125k and looking to buy their first home in So Cal today? Those people would have a much better quality of life elsewhere in the country.

A family making $125k that got into the market 6-10 years ago, totally different story.
 
Last edited:

grumpy88

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 10, 2013
Messages
6,189
Reaction score
8,156
Define affordable, I guess. You talking about a family bringing in $125k and looking to buy their first home in So Cal today? Those people would have a much better quality of like elsewhere in the country.

A family making $125k that got into the market 6-10 years ago, totally different story.
I agree but a couple who makes 250 k should not be buying a house at 900k in the hood either . Govt housing is on its way . The powerful in charge are destined to drive this country in to socialism . Its fucked
 

LargeOrangeFont

We aren't happy until you aren't happy
Joined
Sep 4, 2015
Messages
49,689
Reaction score
76,178
I agree but a couple who makes 250 k should not be buying a house at 900k in the hood either . Govt housing is on its way . The powerful in charge are destined to drive this country in to socialism . Its fucked

I think what will happen is a Blackrock or some such entity will swoop in and buy these people out or put them in some kind of reverse mortgage 🤣.

How many people would take $500/month.. or even just “free” rent for 5 years to make their distressed property problem go away??

Those companies have to be licking their chops figuring out how to take advantage of the stupid, while protecting the portfolio.
 

grumpy88

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 10, 2013
Messages
6,189
Reaction score
8,156
I think what will happen is a Blackrock or some such entity will swoop in and buy these people out or put them in some kind of reverse mortgage 🤣.

How many people would take $500/month.. or even just “free” rent for 5 years to make their distressed property problem go away??

Those companies have to be licking their chops figuring out how to take advantage of the stupid, while protecting the portfolio.
The bank always win . That house was sold for 50k in 1957 . How many times has it changed hands since ? The banks always end up with it and sell another loan . Same property just bigger margins now 70 years later . Sad .
 

Go-Fly

Where Are My Shoes?
Joined
Mar 2, 2010
Messages
5,610
Reaction score
8,800
So the house down the hill from my brother's house closed for 1.2m. The bank, buyer, realitor and appraiser all agreed that was a fair value. All safty nets put in place so no one gets hurt. The house was $625k 24 months ago. It will be worth $625k or less 24 months from now. In this area, like many, everyone knows $625k was slightly inflated price already. Does smart money throw good money after bad or cut and run when the market falls on this 1.2m home?
 
Last edited:

Cdog

Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 8, 2008
Messages
8,483
Reaction score
17,929
So the house down the hill from my brother's house closed for 1.2m. The bank, buyer, realitor and appraiser all agreed that was a fair value. All safty nets put in place so no one gets hurt. The house was $625k 24 months ago. It will be worth $625k or less 24 months from now. In this area, like many, everyone knows $625k was slightly inflated price already. Does smart money throw good money after bad or cut and run when the market falls on this 1.2m home?
Housing booms every 10 years because there’s a new generation of suckers to take advantage of in this disposable society
 

Cdog

Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 8, 2008
Messages
8,483
Reaction score
17,929
Saw this quote the other day:

Housing is where some of the dumbest people have the most access to leverage.
It's lame. But we all do it to ourselves. Crazy....

I'd much rather trail braked this situation back in 2019-2020 than go full retard off the cliff like we have been since. The ups and downs are brutal.
 

HNL2LHC

What is right and what is wrong these days!
Joined
Jun 25, 2018
Messages
15,919
Reaction score
30,457
Housing booms every 10 years because there’s a new generation of suckers to take advantage of in this disposable society
What Is interesting is that back when my parents were in Real Estate sales, in the 70s to 2000s they would talk about the 7 year cycles. The 2008 debacle moved things up to 10 year this time. It is going to be interesting if this is the new norm. 🤔 🤷‍♂️
 

Cdog

Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 8, 2008
Messages
8,483
Reaction score
17,929
What Is interesting is that back when my parents were in Real Estate sales, in the 70s to 2000s they would talk about the 7 year cycles. The 2008 debacle moved things up to 10 year this time. It is going to be interesting if this is the new norm. 🤔 🤷‍♂️
My grandfather subdivided much of Torrance, Palos Verdes and Ranch PV back in the 50's-70's. I'm 3rd generation in the crazy business. The 7 yr cycles back in the day were slow downs. Not winner takes all swipe the board clean situations like we've seen since the the early 2000's.
 

Your ad here

Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 16, 2014
Messages
5,011
Reaction score
8,398
So true. Had a friend that just was forced to move to a new rental when the owners sold. They were having a hard time until the found someone willing to rent out their vacation home. The cost was almost double what they had moved from.

This is the reason why I keep trying to get the next generation to buy ASAP. It you do you will never have your monthly housing expense go up. 👍
Not to mention when you buy it will only be you that makes the decision if you want to stay there or move somewhere else and it's your rules. Living by someone's rules or the uncertainty if you'll have to be looking and competing for a new place to live in a month is real nice not to have to deal with.
 

LargeOrangeFont

We aren't happy until you aren't happy
Joined
Sep 4, 2015
Messages
49,689
Reaction score
76,178
So the house down the hill from my brother's house closed for 1.2m. The bank, buyer, realitor and appraiser all agreed that was a fair value. All safty nets put in place so no one gets hurt. The house was $625k 24 months ago. It will be worth $625k or less 24 months from now. In this area, like many, everyone knows $625k was slightly inflated price already. Does smart money throw good money after bad or cut and run when the market falls on this 1.2m home?

Buy the house back in 24 months and do it again.
 

Your ad here

Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 16, 2014
Messages
5,011
Reaction score
8,398
I do see similarities from the 2007 era with the crazy house prices, amount of work, and demand in the toy market. The one I haven't heard yet is someone saying they work 3 to 3.5 weeks to pay their mortgage. I heard this a lot back in 2007. I've yet to hear it in these times. For people that refinanced I hear they pulled money, reset their loans anywhere from 25 to 28 years back to 30 years, and their payment went up $150. $150 is going out to dinner 3 times for a couple. 2 times for a family.
 

D19

Well-Known Member
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
2,446
Reaction score
4,883
I agree but a couple who makes 250 k should not be buying a house at 900k in the hood either . Govt housing is on its way . The powerful in charge are destined to drive this country in to socialism . Its fucked

Yep!


Saw this a few weeks ago. Why NAR and CAR is not making anyone aware or fighting against it is ridiculous. Sometimes I wonder where my dues go? LOL.. Actually never mind, I know where they go. :rolleyes:

This isn't for equality- it's about control (socialism). Most of the distressed homes aren't for the first time, down-payment assistance/FHA buyer. The person who flipped it makes that possible (making it a financeable home). And it's not just about distressed homes, who cares if someone buys something and sells for a profit. This is America dammit! With the ever-growing cost of living, regulations and taxes, people need to find ways to prosper. Now they want to take that away?

Also, the people bidding the homes up are a majority retail buyers. Investors are not paying these prices. Their entire argument is false rhetoric. Fake news! lol

This agenda combined with the one about giving CA first dibs on all trustee sales is very very scary. The powers that be want total control, they want to own everything. Their mentality; "The common man is too stupid to own property, we will own them all and decide who gets one" :mad:
 
Last edited:

Havasu blue label

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 30, 2018
Messages
5,324
Reaction score
3,121
Good one you think they did a 10 yr are went back to 30 yr but there payment savings is 300 per month
 

EmpirE231

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 10, 2008
Messages
4,849
Reaction score
10,008
So the house down the hill from my brother's house closed for 1.2m. The bank, buyer, realitor and appraiser all agreed that was a fair value. All safty nets put in place so no one gets hurt. The house was $625k 24 months ago. It will be worth $625k or less 24 months from now. In this area, like many, everyone knows $625k was slightly inflated price already. Does smart money throw good money after bad or cut and run when the market falls on this 1.2m home?
might was well buy it, because 8-10 yrs from now, it will be worth 2.4 million according to some smart money people.
 

EmpirE231

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 10, 2008
Messages
4,849
Reaction score
10,008
You think real estate value over the long term will deflate?
No, but to pretend that real estate values never deflate is silly. Obviously you go back historically and long term it will keep climbing, at what pace... nobody really knows. Some people who bought in 05&06 were lucky to be back to ground zero in 2016/2017... currently they are up 10 + yrs later, but who knows for how long, as we are back in record territory. I wouldn't recommend a friend or family member to buy in this market, unless they were relocating / absolutely HATED where they live / or if they are just balling Catalina wine mixer style.
 

BHC Vic

cobra performance boats
Joined
May 24, 2014
Messages
25,663
Reaction score
20,223
I do see similarities from the 2007 era with the crazy house prices, amount of work, and demand in the toy market. The one I haven't heard yet is someone saying they work 3 to 3.5 weeks to pay their mortgage. I heard this a lot back in 2007. I've yet to hear it in these times. For people that refinanced I hear they pulled money, reset their loans anywhere from 25 to 28 years back to 30 years, and their payment went up $150. $150 is going out to dinner 3 times for a couple. 2 times for a family.
I didn’t pull any money went from 30 years to 20 years. Payment went up about 400 a month
 

LargeOrangeFont

We aren't happy until you aren't happy
Joined
Sep 4, 2015
Messages
49,689
Reaction score
76,178
No, but to pretend that real estate values never deflate is silly. Obviously you go back historically and long term it will keep climbing, at what pace... nobody really knows. Some people who bought in 05&06 were lucky to be back to ground zero in 2016/2017... currently they are up 10 + yrs later, but who knows for how long, as we are back in record territory. I wouldn't recommend a friend or family member to buy in this market, unless they were relocating / absolutely HATED where they live / or if they are just balling Catalina wine mixer style.
No, but to pretend that real estate values never deflate is silly. Obviously you go back historically and long term it will keep climbing, at what pace... nobody really knows. Some people who bought in 05&06 were lucky to be back to ground zero in 2016/2017... currently they are up 10 + yrs later, but who knows for how long, as we are back in record territory. I wouldn't recommend a friend or family member to buy in this market, unless they were relocating / absolutely HATED where they live / or if they are just balling Catalina wine mixer style.
Lol so you are saying it’s a solid investment even after being in the red for 10 years.

You are painting yourself into an indefensible position that defies modern history. If you don’t think you are going to have to move for the better part of a decade, RE is probably a pretty safe bet overall.

Thank you.
 

LargeOrangeFont

We aren't happy until you aren't happy
Joined
Sep 4, 2015
Messages
49,689
Reaction score
76,178
Yep!


Saw this a few weeks ago. Why NAR and CAR is not making anyone aware or fighting against it is ridiculous. Sometimes I wonder where my dues go? LOL.. Actually never mind, I know where they go. :rolleyes:

This isn't for equality- it's about control (socialism). Most of the distressed homes aren't for the first time, down-payment assistance/FHA buyer. The person who flipped it makes that possible (making it a financeable home). And it's not just about distressed homes, who cares if someone buys something and sells for a profit. This is America dammit! With the ever-growing cost of living, regulations and taxes, people need to find ways to prosper. Now they want to take that away?

Also, the people bidding the homes up are a majority retail buyers. Investors are not paying these prices. Their entire argument is false rhetoric. Fake news! lol

This agenda combined with the one about giving CA first dibs on all trustee sales is very very scary. The powers that be want total control, they want to own everything. Their mentality; "The common man is too stupid to own property, we will own them all and decide who gets one" :mad:
FWIW I got 17 offers on my house. More than half were investors for 8-15% over asking. The lower offers from individuals were still over asking but less than what the investors offered.
 

Havasu blue label

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 30, 2018
Messages
5,324
Reaction score
3,121
My calls where Mgm at 6. 80 and mgp properties and Tesla at 680 sell Tesla wait for the split the buy it back win win mr orange
 

MSum661

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2014
Messages
4,524
Reaction score
6,829
30 Yr. Fixed moving onward and upward at a 12 year high @ 5.25% today.

10 Yr. Treasury climbing again to 2.78% with some street predictions claiming it could top 3.00% by Friday.

Also heard today that tomorrows CPI number could top the current 7.9% and hit 8.4%.

Carry on



Screenshot 2022-04-11 at 11-31-10 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates - Mortgage News Daily.png
 

hallett21

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 9, 2010
Messages
18,308
Reaction score
23,459
Do I continue to live in my 2.99% mortgage? Or is that the one I rent while the wife and I live in the 50% off home at 6% interest?
 

MSum661

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2014
Messages
4,524
Reaction score
6,829
They've resorted to the "Deep in Denial" Formulas now.
Just think...Fed funds rate is currently at 0.50%......I'm losing count now to how many none stop rate hikes they'll need to get around 8+% CPI if this denial keeps up

lol

Let’s be real inflation is higher than 8% already but we’re using the massaged numbers formula.
 

EmpirE231

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 10, 2008
Messages
4,849
Reaction score
10,008
Lol so you are saying it’s a solid investment even after being in the red for 10 years.

You are painting yourself into an indefensible position that defies modern history. If you don’t think you are going to have to move for the better part of a decade, RE is probably a pretty safe bet overall.

Thank you.
not painting myself into any corner... there is still timing to consider for the market... re-read what I wrote.

why sell your CA home? Obviously you felt you were near the top of this current cycle. Just because we all know that over LONG term real estate trends up, does not mean that cycles in the market do not exist, and there are better time to buy/sell, rather than just "anytime is a good time to buy"
 

Hammer

Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 17, 2010
Messages
22,352
Reaction score
14,252
I do too but he just dumped a bunch of money into his primary and he’s tapped out now. Like someone said he didn’t stop the spending. My job is a little more recession proof than his and I’m still nervous. View attachment 1104896 View attachment 1104897 View attachment 1104898
So let me get this straight. He's posting on FB during work time hiring Non union guys with no PPE working on his pad?

Just giving you shit Vic

RDP needs a reset. There is nothing "River" related on RDP. I do appreciate the knowledge on here though.

I can tell I'm doing life wrong. 🤷‍♂️
 

BHC Vic

cobra performance boats
Joined
May 24, 2014
Messages
25,663
Reaction score
20,223
So let me get this straight. He's posting on FB during work time hiring Non union guys with no PPE working on his pad?

Just giving you shit Vic

RDP needs a reset. There is nothing "River" related on RDP. I do appreciate the knowledge on here though.

I can tell I'm doing life wrong. 🤷‍♂️
And he wants to be a union Business Agent 😂

You aren’t wrong and people do monitor fb. Weird times we live in
 

monkeyswrench

To The Rescue!
Joined
Sep 7, 2018
Messages
29,136
Reaction score
82,775
And he wants to be a union Business Agent 😂

You aren’t wrong and people do monitor fb. Weird times we live in
Just remember...stepping into the BA roll requires you be a politician, and no longer just "one of the guys". There are pros, no doubt, but there are cons you won't see.
Pops did it. One of the reasons I went the route I did. Never been good at politicking.
might was well buy it, because 8-10 yrs from now, it will be worth 2.4 million according to some smart money people.
You may be right...
The saying "a dollar waiting on a dime" comes to mind though. The home may be worth 2.4, but I fear it may be because the dollar will be worth a dime.
 

BHC Vic

cobra performance boats
Joined
May 24, 2014
Messages
25,663
Reaction score
20,223
Just remember...stepping into the BA roll requires you be a politician, and no longer just "one of the guys". There are pros, no doubt, but there are cons you won't see.
Pops did it. One of the reasons I went the route I did. Never been good at politicking.

You may be right...
The saying "a dollar waiting on a dime" comes to mind though. The home may be worth 2.4, but I fear it may be because the dollar will be worth a dime.
Even as an instructor you have to play the game
 

monkeyswrench

To The Rescue!
Joined
Sep 7, 2018
Messages
29,136
Reaction score
82,775
Even as an instructor you have to play the game
Figured as much. It works for some. Hell, Pops made a good living, and ended up with a decent retirement. After seeing what could happen...and did...I wasn't going that route. Pops was a much nicer person than I me, and more trusting. Unfortunately, that caused issues. I have no time nor tolerance for those who may wish to harm my livelihood, and such, my family. I was still young, so it effected me pretty heavily.
Probably only one in a million have bad issues with "unions". Long odds, but I think I was that one. No doubt it would have changed my path, retirement and medical would be great. I'm happy with the path I chose, even if I still don't know where it's going.
 
Top