2023 recession?

[LargeOrangeFont]

You can’t sell a house if the value drops 50 percent even with a fixed rate try again

Pass me some of that peyote pops.

What if you owe less than it is worth?

 

[DRYHEAT]

Damn I guess I’ll have to go back to work.
Working on my résumé

For your consideration slightly worn truck driver can’t work on Mondays Tuesdays Wednesdays Thursdays or Fridays. Religious reasons keep me from working Saturday and Sundays. All other times I’m available any shift.

 

[regor]

Time to pay the piper boys!!!

 

[Skinny Tire AH]

Time to pay the piper boys!!!

View attachment 1124665

“Presidents and political parties have little to no effect on Inflation, Fuel prices, etc.”

“You big Government liberals always calling for more government”



()

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

“Presidents and political parties have little to no effect on Inflation, Fuel prices, etc.”

“You big Government liberals always calling for more government”



()

The laugh is silent

 

[Skinny Tire AH]

The laugh is silent

Not many up here where functional people post will get it.

 

[just_floatin]

 

[c_land]

Does that first one's CPI, "Ex-food and energy..." mean "excluding" food and energy?
Where do they hide those numbers?

Yes excluding food and energy because those 2 components are considered more volatile. The CPI does include it so it’s not hidden, they just strip those numbers for an additional metric for people like Biden to stroke his Putin price hike narrative.

Edited for a missed word

 

[monkeyswrench]

Yes excluding food and energy because those 2 components are considered more volatile. The CPI does include it so it’s not hidden, they just strip those numbers for an additional metric for people Biden to stroke his Putin price hike narrative.

Kind of messed up though..."inflation", job numbers, CPI and such...really those numbers are Greek to some of us.

Food and fuel are a kick in the nuts for all of us though. There are guys here running small to medium fleets, or having to buy heavy highway diesel, this has to have some ill effects on their bottom line. Then factor in every employee of every business eats. In some ways they may feel like they're spinning their wheels now. What seemed like a good living is being chipped away, less cushion every pay period. Not good at all.

 

[c_land]

Kind of messed up though..."inflation", job numbers, CPI and such...really those numbers are Greek to some of us.

Food and fuel are a kick in the nuts for all of us though. There are guys here running small to medium fleets, or having to buy heavy highway diesel, this has to have some I'll effects on their bottom line. Then factor in every employee of every business eats. In some ways they may feel like they're spinning their wheels now. What seemed like a good living is being chipped away, less cushion every pay period. Not good at all.

I agree. The whole thing is cooked. You should hear about the way they calculate shelter inflation for the CPI. They go around to certain homeowners and ask “what do you think your home would rent for, if you had to rent?”

CPI probably far understates the level of inflation that we are experiencing in our day to day lives.

 

[nameisbond]

I believe over summer the stock markets will build up to a big crash in fall. Inflation is already far worse then reported. Its easy for the government to hide the true inflation numbers. After the market crash, 08 will feel like a minor deal. It will take decades to recover.

 

[Dan Lorenze]

FJB

 

[CLdrinker]

You can’t sell a house if the value drops 50 percent even with a fixed rate try again

I could sell if prices drop 50% and I would still make money.

But if prices drop that far I’m buying a second house.

 

[Orange Juice]

I’m not seeing recession. I’m seeing inflation.

I just bought a 2022 Charger today, and paid $49k. Most I’ve ever paid for a car.

 

[Havasu blue label]

That’s great remember equity is fake money till you sell

 

[CLdrinker]

I’m not seeing recession. I’m seeing inflation.

I just bought a 2022 Charger today, and paid $49k. Most I’ve ever paid for a car.

49k for a charger? Wholly crap that better be 1 bad ass charger.

 

[monkeyswrench]

I could sell if prices drop 50% and I would still make money.

But if prices drop that far I’m buying a second house.

As would a lot of people. That is also under the assumption that there is either good salary coming in, or good money from investments coming in. There are serious game changers that can effect the future.
Until very recently, I had never thought about it. Having never lived through a time of both war and modern communication, I'd never seen it. In Ukraine, there are people that work for the government (albeit a shady government), that have not been able to work or get paid in 3 months...
Hell, reading Farmer John is leaving the state... The geopolitical climate is really changing, and I fear a lot of people may get screwed

 

[nameisbond]

The government reported inflation numbers give us a 40 year high. The government can fudge the numbers to make them a little better. The inflation of the 1970's (40 years ago) caused a recession. Today is no different.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

That’s great remember equity is fake money till you sell

Also remember statics you make up when you are loaded are also fake statistics.

 

[CLdrinker]

As would a lot of people. That is also under the assumption that there is either good salary coming in, or good money from investments coming in. There are serious game changers that can effect the future.
Until very recently, I had never thought about it. Having never lived through a time of both war and modern communication, I'd never seen it. In Ukraine, there are people that work for the government (albeit a shady government), that have not been able to work or get paid in 3 months...
Hell, reading Farmer John is leaving the state... The geopolitical climate is really changing, and I fear a lot of people may get screwed

This fear is why my wife and I keep each other in check.
We live way below our means. We can make it on just my income. And if we made some sacrifices we could make it on just her income.

In all honesty we will thrive in a poor economy. We both have very secure jobs. I feel bad for those not prepared.

 

[monkeyswrench]

This fear is why my wife and I keep each other in check.
We live way below our means. We can make it on just my income. And if we made some sacrifices we could make it on just her income.

In all honesty we will thrive in a poor economy. We both have very secure jobs. I feel bad for those not prepared.

Last go around I wasn't prepared...but I thought 6 years in my primary job was good enough to keep it. It was a PERS type gig, the layoffs in our department landed on those below, and me

That was 10 years ago. Yep, prepared more now than I ever dreamt. Hard lessons learned are well remembered

 

[Done-it-again]

You can be prepared all you want, no one knows what’s going to happen.

 

[CLdrinker]

You can be prepared all you want, no one knows what’s going to happen.

Oh come on. Just listen to the real estate agents and mortgage brokers. Everything is fine.
In my position we are looking at hiring more planners and the CPUC will pull funding if we don’t spend money so I’m pretty safe.
Wife handles insurance for some fairly large companies that won’t be going anywhere. Unless people stop drinking beer. And people stop shipping stuff on trucks.

Yes we aren’t immune but it would have to get Great Depression type bad before I worry. And I only have 2 things I owe money on. House and Jeep and the Jeep will be for sale soon as I get my truck.

 

[HTMike]

All I know is everyone who levered up with " free money " HELOC's and over priced houses are going to get smmoookkkkeeeeddddd.

 

[HNL2LHC]

All I know is everyone who levered up with " free money " HELOC's and over priced houses are going to get smmoookkkkeeeeddddd.

Funny when I was at the bank TODAY and the teller needed to approve me closing one of our 6 accounts.…..

I wish I was could be able to see their faces when everything is pulled from the Hawaii bank, but that is another story. This is when I grabbed the masked up photo of everyone.

The teller next to me was explaining to a lady that the reason that her HELOC payment increased and said you could always lock in the rate so that it will not continue to go up as the rate does. WTF is wrong with people?

HELLO don’t just pull cash out not knowing what is going on…..

 

[ElAzul]

 

[regor]

View attachment 1125047 View attachment 1125048 View attachment 1125049

The piñata......

 

[buck35]

2023??
We are there, here .

 

[monkeyswrench]

You can be prepared all you want, no one knows what’s going to happen.

This is very true, but I think I have most bases covered. No debt, no job to lose, some supplies and a fair amount of skills. I have limited assets to depreciate, but some possessions may actually increase in value...I'm not worried like I was before. Life will throw a storm at you, just another test.

 

[Orange Juice]

49k for a charger? Wholly crap that better be 1 bad ass charger.

After license/ taxes, it’s $49k. It’s a loaded Charger GT with a v6. It gets 19/30mpg.

Sticker price was $44k

Top speed is suppose to be 147mph…..

 

[CLdrinker]

After license/ taxes, it’s $49k. It’s a loaded Charger GT with a v6. It gets 19/30mpg.

Sticker price was $44k

Top speed is suppose to be 147mph…..

Dam prices have gotten crazy. My wife’s Durango GT was 37otd in ‘18. Hits the speed limiter hard at 120mph

 

[Gonefishin5555]

Crypto hit a speed bump yesterday ETH dropped into 1400s being the high roller that I am I bought $250

 

[Havasu blue label]

Yes sir buy and buy again

 

[just_floatin]

Terrible start to the week with the Dow futures tumbling 550 points and S&P 500 poised to fall back into bear market territory. Inflation is well over 8% and the economy appears to be tanking. The Government is going to have to print more stimi money and reopen the PPP loan forgiveness program . The time to pay the Piper is among us.

 

[PaPaG]

Correction is here folks.....expect more losses for now, DO NOT invest more than 5-10% at a time of your cash for a while. DO your research and look for stocks with great balance sheets and great track records with good outlooks during this recession and load up slowly.... (Exception is: Unless you are an experienced Day Trader, this is Christmas for experienced Day Traders that is for sure)....

 

[Havasu blue label]

Tough day but there is some long term stocks buy in buy again if it drops

 

[MSum661]

10yr. pops to 3.30

 

[Orange Juice]

Another crazy down day in the market.
Crypto is messed up with Bitcoin hitting 22,000.
Gold/Silver appear stable around $1800/$21.

I suggest, if you have ever desired to purchase a new car with a v8, you do it ASAP. 2023 is the last year of the Dodge Charger, and Chrysler 300.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

I’m going to have to buy some more crypto and coin

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Another crazy down day in the market.
Crypto is messed up with Bitcoin hitting 22,000.
Gold/Silver appear stable around $1800/$21.

I suggest, if you have ever desired to purchase a new car with a v8, you do it ASAP. 2023 is the last year of the Dodge Charger, and Chrysler 300.

Lies. Caddy also said they’ed never make another supercharged V8 again.. they just came out with their biggest gas guzzling v8 SUV ever, the supercharged Escalade V.

 

[c_land]

2Y/10Y portion of the yield curve is inverted again. Edit: almost inverted.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

With these disruptions comes opportunity. Shaking the snowglobe is a good thing. In 2007, my world started to crumble but forced a pivot that positions us better this time and much wiser. Sure, it took a dozen years to recover, but we did not die, or go hungry. We always had a roof over our heads. I hope people will find some comfort in the luck they have living in America and rise to the occasion. This has the potential to go pretty bad and I am half writing this as a reminder to myself.

In good times everyone is an expert, you don't have to play that well to win. Now we go back to skill and business acumen playing a role. It's pretty easy to make money when times are good, now let's see who the real hustlers are.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

My daughter started her real estate job about a month ago I already told her she can move back in.

 

[Wheeler]

My daughter started her real estate job about a month ago I already told her she can move back in.

She's not late to the game but early for the next go-round.

 

[Waterjunky]

My daughter started her real estate job about a month ago I already told her she can move back in.

A good friend of mine's wife is new in real estate. She has sold several houses over the last year but the market has been absolutely on fire in their area and she is the newbie at the agency. I do not see this ending well for them. The good news is that she is actually a hustler and is of reasonable intelligence (only met her a few times) so she might make it though.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Does anyone else follow J Bravo? I have had the RE venture consultant and Steven Van Metre on my daily watch list for about a year. I find Bravo the most entertaining. Today was pretty good. Could be a wild ride.

 

[zhandfull]

Does anyone else follow J Bravo? I have had the RE venture consultant and Steven Van Metre on my daily watch list for about a year. I find Bravo the most entertaining. Today was pretty good. Could be a wild ride.

Bravo is funny but wears me out sometimes.

Micheal Zuber I can watch everyday and he is pretty spot on most of the time with his daily financial news.

 

[Orange Juice]

Lies. Caddy also said they’ed never make another supercharged V8 again.. they just came out with their biggest gas guzzling v8 SUV ever, the supercharged Escalade V.

Camaro and Impala are also ending in 2024.
Ford is already down to Mustang.
Caddy has two car models. Neither has a v8.

SUV’s and trucks will continue to offer v8’s.

 

[regor]

18% layoff from Coinbase yesterday and now...................

"Facing Years Of Fewer Home Sales" - Compass, Redfin Slash Workforce Amid Affordability Crisis​

With May demand 17% below expectations, we don't have enough work for our agents and support staff...

TUE JUN 14, AT 11:05 AM


THIS is where the shiza starts to hit the fan.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

18% layoff from Coinbase yesterday and now...................

"Facing Years Of Fewer Home Sales" - Compass, Redfin Slash Workforce Amid Affordability Crisis​

With May demand 17% below expectations, we don't have enough work for our agents and support staff...

TUE JUN 14, AT 11:05 AM


THIS is where the shiza starts to hit the fan.

Coinbase was already a sinking ship.. as was carvana.

I have a meeting with my mortgage customer in 10 mins.. interested to hear what they say. They asked yesterday to close out a project we are working on that isn’t even complete yet and there are still hours on the books.