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2023 recession?

Recession in 2023?

  • Yes

    Votes: 171 64.3%
  • No

    Votes: 54 20.3%
  • RDP Sux

    Votes: 74 27.8%

  • Total voters
    266

Orange Juice

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BingerFang

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75 bps hike coming Wednesday.

 
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BingerFang

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LargeOrangeFont

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@LargeOrangeFont


lol.

Why would I need the talking points for CNN and MSDNC? 😋

See post # 4. We are almost there.
 
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BingerFang

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Why would I need the talking points for CNN and MSDNC? 😋

See post # 4. We are almost there.

I tagged you because you and Joe Biden’s White House are basically saying the same thing.

If you read even the first paragraph it’s saying-
Back to back quarters of negative GDP is not what indicates a recession, we use a more holistic approach so “Wake me when people start pulling down the Help Wanted signs from store windows.”

Lol.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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I tagged you because you and Joe Biden’s White House are basically saying the same thing.

If you read even the first paragraph it’s saying-
Back to back quarters of negative GDP is not what indicates a recession, we use a more holistic approach so “Wake me when people start pulling down the Help Wanted signs from store windows.”

Lol.

“Basically the same” 🤣. Glad you picked up something from your liberal think tanks!
 

MSum661

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I tagged you because you and Joe Biden’s White House are basically saying the same thing.

If you read even the first paragraph it’s saying-
Back to back quarters of negative GDP is not what indicates a recession, we use a more holistic approach so “Wake me when people start pulling down the Help Wanted signs from store windows.”

Lol.



FYiGFd3VEAA-nDW.jpg
 

MSum661

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Walmart and Target both down in AH today on profit forecasts and weak consumers.

Walmart reported full-year earnings will fall 11% to 13%.
Target reported full-year operating profits will decline between 11%-13% as well.
Amazon down on the news.

Go Brandon.
 

monkeyswrench

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The numbers will effect all of us. In one way or another, to some extent, things are going to change a bit. I'm not saying it's going to be soup lines and Grapes of Wrath kind of stuff, but I sure don't see the rainbows and unicorns some others see either.
 

MSum661

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The numbers will effect all of us. In one way or another, to some extent, things are going to change a bit. I'm not saying it's going to be soup lines and Grapes of Wrath kind of stuff, but I sure don't see the rainbows and unicorns some others see either.

Walmart is considered one of five top bellweather corporations in the U.S. and a key indicator for when the economy takes a turn.
I'd bet large that if the Fed could cut at tomorrows meeting they would......but they can't.
Quite the conundrum they have put themselves into.
 

Ladsm

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Walmart and Target both down in AH today on profit forecasts and weak consumers.

Walmart reported full-year earnings will fall 11% to 13%.
Target reported full-year operating profits will decline between 11%-13% as well.
Amazon down on the news.

Go Brandon.
Amazon is pulling back hard on spending to build new facilities and not backfilling jobs from attrition.
 

Done-it-again

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Amazon is pulling back hard on spending to build new facilities and not backfilling jobs from attrition.
As they try an finish this one....

 

rickym20

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As they try an finish this one....

Was fortunate to have a good run working on a few of these projects local and out of state including this one as well. Sad to see them go since they put a lot of construction guys to work.

Took this picture recently , was cool to see on a project this size.
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pronstar

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As they try an finish this one....

Between 2019 and 2021, Amazon doubled their warehouse capacity. We’re talking 400 million square feet in total. Their CFO says it’s costing the company tens of millions of dollars every single day.

These are largely leased, and with a slow economy they can’t find anyone they can sublet their leases to.

It’s gonna be a huge drag on earnings.
 

LuauLounge

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10 million a day is less than1% of Amazon's gross income per day. It definately will affect it, but they aren't getting hit as bad as the others. Stock up 12% after yesterdays quarterly report.
 

Paradox

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I think they will be fine as well. This post made me look. I recently bought 100 shares at $108 and today it closed at just shy of $135..
 

Orange Juice

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No recession in my home. Mostly just sticker shock on cars and homes, and realizing fewer people can afford a car.
 

TCHB

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No recession in my home. Mostly just sticker shock on cars and homes, and realizing fewer people can afford a car.
Cars selling at MSRP and some discounts. Honda and Toyota tougher to get. Stock market back in record territory.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Cars selling at MSRP and some discounts. Honda and Toyota tougher to get. Stock market back in record territory.
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2015
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2016
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2017
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2018
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2019
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2020
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2021
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2022 <---You are here.

They are finally right, we will be in a recession soon. Wake me when people start pulling down the Help Wanted signs from store windows.
Maybe in another 18 months financial armageddon will finally arrive. There are still help wanted signs in windows though. 🤣
 
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Badchoices03

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So can I let go of my hat or at least not hold on so tight? Maybe just snug it up to my head and not actually hold it?
 

EmpirE231

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Posted a job for an entry level CSR position… every applicant answered the phone or called back right away. One day I had 100% of interviews show up, the next day around 75%. I know this sounds like it should be the norm, but this reaction has been unheard of for the last 10 years or so. Most applicants said they’re getting zero calls from everywhere they’re applying 🤷‍♂️

Anecdotal info, but I thought it was interesting. Had to turn off the indeed ad after 2 days because I got way too many resumes.
 

JFMFG

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Posted a job for an entry level CSR position… every applicant answered the phone or called back right away. One day I had 100% of interviews show up, the next day around 75%. I know this sounds like it should be the norm, but this reaction has been unheard of for the last 10 years or so. Most applicants said they’re getting zero calls from everywhere they’re applying 🤷‍♂️

Anecdotal info, but I thought it was interesting. Had to turn off the indeed ad after 2 days because I got way too many resumes.
Yes got flooded with applicants last week im
Talking 50 within 24 hours.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Posted a job for an entry level CSR position… every applicant answered the phone or called back right away. One day I had 100% of interviews show up, the next day around 75%. I know this sounds like it should be the norm, but this reaction has been unheard of for the last 10 years or so. Most applicants said they’re getting zero calls from everywhere they’re applying 🤷‍♂️

Anecdotal info, but I thought it was interesting. Had to turn off the indeed ad after 2 days because I got way too many resumes.

So definitely another 18 months then? 😁
 

monkeyswrench

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@EmpirE231 and @JFMFG are the applications you're receiving qualified, over qualified or "hopefuls"? In the past, it seems getting a bunch of over qualified has been a bad sign. The past few years been a influx of "hopefuls", those that felt they "deserve" the job, but that was when most really needed warm bodies anyway.
 

EmpirE231

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@EmpirE231 and @JFMFG are the applications you're receiving qualified, over qualified or "hopefuls"? In the past, it seems getting a bunch of over qualified has been a bad sign. The past few years been an influx of "hopefuls", those that felt they "deserve" the job, but that was when most really needed warm bodies anyway.
A mix of both, way too many with college degrees (job is for entry level CSR). One thing that stood out from talking to the applicants is a lot of people recently laid off.

Previously I’d be lucky to get 20% of scheduled interviews to show up. Would get around 8-10 resumes per day. This time around it was around 50-60 per day and I even set a lower than recommended daily budget on the ad.
 

HNL2LHC

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A mix of both, way too many with college degrees (job is for entry level CSR). One thing that stood out from talking to the applicants is a lot of people recently laid off.

Previously I’d be lucky to get 20% of scheduled interviews to show up. Would get around 8-10 resumes per day. This time around it was around 50-60 per day and I even set a lower than recommended daily budget on the ad.
Looks like @Badchoices03 might want to look into a chin strap after all….
 

rickym20

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Not saying it’s the case for all companies and may just be the one I work for but we are down 28% for 2024 sales vs this point last year.
 

RaceTec

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Our industry is getting hit pretty bad now, layoffs are starting at different places... Sales are down all over the place.
 

HNL2LHC

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High inventories, tight credit, high interest rates, high inflation that outpaces wage growth, these are happening now, regardless of the labels we choose to describe the economy.
Yeah, things are getting a little dicey in CA. Hawaii is typically 6 months behind. There is a lot going on with past raw material issues and labor. Now that the suppliers have inventory back up to normal timelines manufacturers are flushed with material. Back logs are being caught up. The orders are a bit slow but could be that they don’t have to rush to order as production times are only 8-12 weeks not 32. So that creates a lull for a bit of time. New projects are not bad but I see that we will need to work harder to keep the numbers up. Competition is dropping their $$$ to gain market share. It will be interesting to see where we are at in December. 2024 is going to be interesting….
 

Cole Trickle

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A mix of both, way too many with college degrees (job is for entry level CSR). One thing that stood out from talking to the applicants is a lot of people recently laid off.

Previously I’d be lucky to get 20% of scheduled interviews to show up. Would get around 8-10 resumes per day. This time around it was around 50-60 per day and I even set a lower than recommended daily budget on the ad.
Curious what kind of pay for a entry level csr? I'm guessing un licensed?
 

regor

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They're all lying...........................just like they do about EVERYTHING.

This party is coming to an end, but until then, they'll play the music as long as they can.


Wheels Come Off The "Strong Jobs" Myth: Job Openings Drop To 2 year Low As Number Of Hires And Quits Plunge

teaser image
Friday's payrolls report may be a doozy.

TUE AUG 1, AT 7:38 AM


US Manufacturing Surveys Confirm Contraction; Employment Weakest Since COVID Lockdowns

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"Manufacturing continues to act as a drag on the US economy, the recent spell of malaise persisting at the start of the third quarter..."

TUE AUG 1, AT 7:07 AM


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Cole Trickle

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We might not be able to call it a recession in the typical sence but I feel like the middle class are being absolutely hammered.

$$$ cost a bunch more than it did a couple years back.

Food, utilities, gas, insurance has gone up a ton in the past 12 months while most pay checks have stayed stagnant.

If you bought or refid when the rates were good that will at least stabilize the biggest outlay of $$$. I have friends that makegood $$$ but never bought houses and rent continues to climb to what i would consider outrageous levels and it's pinching them hard.
 

Cole Trickle

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15.50-17/HR

correct, unlicensed... very basic CSR to answer phones, process payments and follow ups etc.
Awesome that you are getting some interest . Like you have mentioned hiring young girls over the last couple years at an entry level has been a nightmare. Its been so bad that we have actually put off hiring a part time csr because its such a pita.

We got crazy fortunate about 5 years back and hired an amazing girl her sr year. She has been one of the best we have ever had and a complete outlier from the previous 5 we had. We had 20 year olds that refused to answer the phone as they were scared and also girls that said they needed 3 weeks vacation 2 months in to go to europe with the family.
 
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