Tesla Continues to collapse.

[Uncle Dave]

So you disagree with teslas and autoblogs numbers.

1. BMW's history has nothing to do with who sold what in that timeframe in the US- zip. Don't disagree they have a great history - thats immaterial in this particular discussion however.

2. The data you gave shows BMW's 3 series numbers in the shitter comparatively. (marries teslas downward shrink of their number.)
They arent 2X what tesla built and shipped of the model 3 since nov17

3. Musk is weird - the name sucks imo.

Audi, Benz, Lexus and BMW arent all having leasing problems


UD

This number is not double 34K most have pegged model 3 production at.

 

[rrrr]

It also look like they are finally ramping the model 3


UD

View attachment 652470

At an estimated 2,200 per week they are building less than 50% of the 5,000 Musk claimed they would hit in the second quarter. He's three weeks away from another failed projection by the CEO of a public company.

When is the SEC going to step in and stop his bullshit?

 

[Uncle Dave]

At an estimated 2,200 per week they are building less than 50% of the 5,000 Musk claimed they would hit in the second quarter. He's three weeks away from another failed projection by the CEO of a public company.

When is the SEC going to step in and stop his bullshit?

Where'd you get that number?

Hes already surpassed 3500 rate for a short time. (see bloombergs tracking)

Pretty sure you know the answer - they aren't.
(kind of a silly but entertaining question)

when it come to tesla data - I always look for disclosure as to wether someone is short or long on their position like seeking alpha states- the shorts will do everything they can to save themselves- and have from the very beginning.

I dont trust either side a whole lot on this topic.


UD

 

[SBMech]

2. The data you gave shows BMW's 3 series numbers in the shitter comparatively. (marries teslas downward shrink of their number.)
They arent 2X what tesla built and shipped of the model 3 since nov17

I never said they were 2x, I said on average they SOLD 4-5k to Tesla's BUILT 2-3k.

BMW and all luxury vehicles sales rise and fall in cycles, lease ends, new models and features etc.

Tesla has a lion's share right now because it's the "new trendy thing". We'll have to wait and see how it ends up, the massive pre-orders don't mean jack if they can't deliver within a reasonable amount of time.

This number is not double 34K most have pegged model 3 production at.

The 34k comes from 9 months of production, not just in 2018. Like I said, apples to oranges the way you state things.

My statement stands, they will not even reach last years totals of 3 series sold, and those people did not have to wait a year to get their vehicle...

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I have not read all the sales data on this, but is Tesla counting committed buyers that do not have cars yet?

I am certain the Model 3 will be their most popular car to date but from a cursory look they are not going to deliver more Model 3s than BMW 3 series (of which some are now 4 series coupes) this year unless production for the next 6 months spikes and stays.

Even if they do, what happens when all orders are fulfilled in a year? What will the “real” sales numbers be after is it out 18 months to 2 years? My guess is that is will fall off, like every other new model does.

 

[SBMech]

I have not read all the sales data on this, but is Tesla counting committed buyers that do not have cars yet?

I am certain the Model 3 will be their most popular car to date but from a cursory look they are not going to deliver more Model 3s than BMW 3 series (of which some are now 4 series coupes) this year unless production for the next 6 months spikes and stays.

Even if they do, what happens when all orders are fulfilled in a year? What will the “real” sales numbers be after is it out 18 months to 2 years? My guess is that is will fall off, like every other new model does.

The data I posted does not contain the combined 3/4 series, just the 3 series. If you were to add in the 4 series as well, Tesla is just further behind.

 

[Uncle Dave]

The data I posted does not contain the combined 3/4 series, just the 3 series. If you were to add in the 4 series as well, Tesla is just further behind.

Behind in what - market share or production?

 

[Uncle Dave]

I never said they were 2x, I said on average they SOLD 4-5k to Tesla's BUILT 2-3k.

BMW and all luxury vehicles sales rise and fall in cycles, lease ends, new models and features etc.

Tesla has a lion's share right now because it's the "new trendy thing". We'll have to wait and see how it ends up, the massive pre-orders don't mean jack if they can't deliver within a reasonable amount of time.

The 34k comes from 9 months of production, not just in 2018. Like I said, apples to oranges the way you state things.

My statement stands, they will not even reach last years totals of 3 series sold, and those people did not have to wait a year to get their vehicle...

"2K" looks a lot like "2X" without glasses on - no intent to misdirect.

" My statement stands, they will not even reach last years totals of 3 series sold, and those people did not have to wait a year to get their vehicle..."

So far in 2018 thats not case. Does it matter what happened in 2017 if Tesla model 3 outsells and delivers the BMW 3 series in 18? You are talking about 2017 - Im talking about 2018.

I posted a chart that showed production starting 9/17 -and going through June (If I recall) I didnt say otherwise, but there wasnt much production in 17 for sure (you guys pointe this out with glee all the time) - - but its ramping pretty quick and the same cannot be said about 2018's production.

The POINT is that so far in 2018 - the model 3 is the best selling sedan in the premium category. Thats pretty amazing regardless.

Sure all new cars models have a cycle .
The highly acclaimed 3 series is losing to a startup (and the Benz and the Audi) in both bookings (not even close) and autos delivered in 2018 .

Maybe next years 3 series will do better?

In this thread the focus is on what he's missed, or gotten wrong - not what he's actually accomplished- which I find incredibly interesting.

Would you agree the 3 is ramping?

UD

 

[Uncle Dave]

I have not read all the sales data on this, but is Tesla counting committed buyers that do not have cars yet?

I am certain the Model 3 will be their most popular car to date but from a cursory look they are not going to deliver more Model 3s than BMW 3 series (of which some are now 4 series coupes) this year unless production for the next 6 months spikes and stays.

Even if they do, what happens when all orders are fulfilled in a year? What will the “real” sales numbers be after is it out 18 months to 2 years? My guess is that is will fall off, like every other new model does.

They are talking about delivered cars in that chart.

It will fall as everything comes and goes in cycles - but for now Tesla has the best selling premium sedan in the catagory.

BMW/ Benz and Audi/ lexus have real competition- FROM AN AMERICAN car company!

How many times in your lifetime has this been the case? We've never competed and won against ego euros in this category - some say there are a few caddies with LS's do Ok but I dont remember them outselling the Euros.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

They are talking about delivered cars in that chart.

It will fall as everything comes and goes in cycles - but for now Tesla has the best selling premium sedan in the catagory.

BMW/ Benz and Audi/ lexus have real competition- FROM AN AMERICAN car company!

How many times in your lifetime has this been the case? We've never competed and won against ego euros in this category - some say there are a few caddies with LS's do Ok but I dont remember them outselling the Euros.

All good points! I feel the numbers are slightly artificial vs the competition, as every car made is already accounted for and 'sold" but they do have a different sales model.

 

[Uncle Dave]

All good points! I feel the numbers are slightly artificial vs the competition, as every car made is already accounted for and 'sold" but they do have a different sales model.

Its also early so well see if holds throughout the rest of Q2,3 and 4.

Yeah the model is totally different on a couple of fronts

direct vs dealer
Manufacturing model order to your taste and wait or pick a unit off a lot.

The other guys can make as many as they want - but then if they sit unsold the metric of simply being able to build more cars doesnt mean anything.

BTW in Europe most car dealerships only have 1 car in each model - you order them and wait. Really only in North America are there acres of autos that sit as stock. My friends from Belgium were blown away by the inventory dealers carry.

UD

 

[SBMech]

"2K" looks a lot like "2X" without glasses on - no intent to misdirect.

" My statement stands, they will not even reach last years totals of 3 series sold, and those people did not have to wait a year to get their vehicle..."

So far in 2018 thats not case. Does it matter what happened in 2017 if Tesla model 3 outsells and delivers the BMW 3 series in 18? You are talking about 2017 - Im talking about 2018.

I posted a chart that showed production starting 9/17 -and going through June (If I recall) I didnt say otherwise, but there wasnt much production in 17 for sure (you guys pointe this out with glee all the time) - - but its ramping pretty quick and the same cannot be said about 2018's production.

The POINT is that so far in 2018 - the model 3 is the best selling sedan in the premium category. Thats pretty amazing regardless.

Sure all new cars models have a cycle .
The highly acclaimed 3 series is losing to a startup (and the Benz and the Audi) in both bookings (not even close) and autos delivered in 2018 .

Maybe next years 3 series will do better?

In this thread the focus is on what he's missed, or gotten wrong - not what he's actually accomplished- which I find incredibly interesting.

Would you agree the 3 is ramping?

UD

Absolutely. If they ever get ramped up, they will probably outsell the competition handily, at least if their quality is solid and they can meet demand in a reasonable time frame. But he will have to deliver the 30k version in spades, it's not nearly as desirable when it's 80k IMO.

 

[SBMech]

So far in 2018 thats not case. Does it matter what happened in 2017 if Tesla model 3 outsells and delivers the BMW 3 series in 18? You are talking about 2017 - Im talking about 2018.

BMW is still selling more cars then Tesla is building for now, if he ever reaches his target of production, he very well could outsell BMW in it's first real year of production...that would definitely be a feather in his cap.

Part of my reluctance to give him praise is that the model 3 has not even been in production for a year. Hard to state trends and positives when there is such a small track record, and Tesla has had a pretty bumpy start with the model 3.

 

[Uncle Dave]

BMW is still selling more cars then Tesla is building for now, if he ever reaches his target of production, he very well could outsell BMW in it's first real year of production...that would definitely be a feather in his cap.

Part of my reluctance to give him praise is that the model 3 has not even been in production for a year. Hard to state trends and positives when there is such a small track record, and Tesla has had a pretty bumpy start with the model 3.

Oh for certain they sell and build more cars -huge delta.

It hard for me to praise the guy as well despite my position here. Tesla and elon are easy to dislike.

Very bumpy start - I think more so for failing to build it quickly- than for building the wrong car.


UD

 

[SBMech]

Oh for certain they sell and build more cars -huge delta.

It hard for me to praise the guy as well despite my position here. Tesla and elon are easy to dislike.

Very bumpy start - I think more so for failing to build it quickly- than for building the wrong car.


UD

Sorry I meant to say that the model 3 could potentially outsell the 3 series, not total BMW production lol, now THAT would be impressive!

 

[pronstar]

Here’s the elephant in the room that needs to be mentioned:
Entry-luxury sedan is a contracting segment.

The 3 Series and Model 3 are chasing fewer and fewer buyers.

While BMW is shifting production to be less reliant on 3 Series sales, Tesla’s got nothing on the immediate horizon.

The Model 3 may one day own the segment...but in the long game, do they really want to?

Tesla caught everyone with their pants down on the EV craze, but they’ve been equally caught when it comes to being on the right-side of the car/truck model mix.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

[rrrr]

Where'd you get that number?

Hes already surpassed 3500 rate for a short time. (see bloombergs tracking)

You better look again. They crossed 3,000 once, last week, and the week before that the number was 2,100. The consensus averages I've seen are 2,200 since April 1st. The assembly line was shut down for 10 days in April.

 

[Uncle Dave]

You better look again. They crossed 3,000 once, last week, and the week before that the number was 2,100. The consensus averages I've seen are 2,200 since April 1st. The assembly line was shut down for 10 days in April.

Happy to keep looking - but where?

Bloomberg is one of the few sources I trust.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

 

[rrrr]

Two weeks ago Tesla said they were producing 2,000 Model 3s weekly. This analyst thinks they won't reach the 5,000 weekly rate until 2Q 2019.


Tesla Seen Falling Short Of Model 3 Production Goals For A Year


https://www.investors.com/news/technology/tesla-stock-model-3-manufacturing/

 

[pronstar]

Really good article that tears-down the Model 3 and analyzes it’s components.

http://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-model-3-teardown-deconstructed-3/

As expected, brilliant electronics, some good innovation, but also trails larger automakers in some key metrics.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

[Uncle Dave]

Two weeks ago Tesla said they were producing 2,000 Model 3s weekly. This analyst thinks they won't reach the 5,000 weekly rate until 2Q 2019.
Tesla Seen Falling Short Of Model 3 Production Goals For A Year
https://www.investors.com/news/technology/tesla-stock-model-3-manufacturing/

The first sentence of that article ends with "a Wall Street analyst said Friday."

Individual analyst comments are all over the map. "Unnamed" analyst comments are worthless.

Do you know if the guy making the prediction is long or short the stock? that is typically the largest single indicator for what an analysts predictions usually are.

The publication Seeking Alpha requires disclosure of position when publishing an article so you know its its a fanboy, a hater, or a non invested third party.

Bloombergs data seems more solid to me- they use several methods including tracking vins with the DMV.



They update this chart daily

 

[Uncle Dave]

Really good article that tears-down the Model 3 and analyzes it’s components.
http://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-model-3-teardown-deconstructed-3/
As expected, brilliant electronics, some good innovation, but also trails larger automakers in some key metrics.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Really good info there - not the typical reprint BS I usually see.

Munro hasn't put out cost, and Ill be curious to see what they add everything up to - the other well done study Ive seen puts cost at about 28K on the car

UD

 

[pronstar]

The first sentence of that article ends with "a Wall Street analyst said Friday."

Individual analyst comments are all over the map. "Unnamed" analyst comments are worthless.

Do you know if the guy making the prediction is long or short the stock? that is typically the largest single indicator for what an analysts predictions usually are.

The publication Seeking Alpha requires disclosure of position when publishing an article so you know its its a fanboy, a hater, or a non invested third party.

Bloombergs data seems more solid to me- they use several methods including tracking vins with the DMV.



They update this chart daily

View attachment 652795

Automakers use so many tricks to inflate sales, and reported numbers aren’t regulated to a standard.

Believe it or not, BMW is one of the worsts offenders. But many carmakers have been caught using various shenanigans.

Here’s just one way how they do it:

www.autonews.com/article/20160218/RETAIL01/160219869/bmw-buoyed-u-s-sales-numbers-by-paying-dealers-to-buy-loaners-report?X-IgnoreUserAgent=1&X-IgnoreUserAgent=1

Polk tracks registrations, and these should be the only numbers that count. Everyone in the industry subscribes to Polk data.

Usually these phony sales are to help make an ad claim.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

[Uncle Dave]

Bloomberg tracks vins like polk does, thats about as close as you can get - thing is you can fake that for a while buy registering the vins w the DMV then building against them but thats supposedly being tightened up with a requirement to plate them within X time of purchase.

"Cheating" auto sales #'s is an art form the established players have down pat.

UD

 

[rrrr]

Investors Business Daily is one of the most respected outlets for US financial news.

If you read farther than the first sentence in my link, it identifies the analyst and his firm, Needham.

Needham is a well known investment bank that advises its clients in growth stocks. They do not hold any Tesla stock, and they aren't some anonymous internet pundit.

Needham & Company is a globally recognized investment banking and asset management firm focused solely on growth companies and their investors. Founded in 1985, the firm is headquartered in New York City with offices in Boston, Chicago, San Francisco, and Menlo Park, CA.

You can't just slag off information that doesn't fit your agenda. I see today's Bloomberg analysis says Tesla is averaging 2,560 Model 3 builds a week. That's pretty close to the 2,200 I mentioned.

 

[Uncle Dave]

Investors Business Daily is one of the most respected outlets for US financial news.

If you read farther than the first sentence in my link, it identifies the analyst and his firm, Needham.

Needham is a well known investment bank that advises its clients in growth stocks. They do not hold any Tesla stock, and they aren't some anonymous internet pundit.

You can't just slag off information that doesn't fit your agenda. I see today's Bloomberg analysis says Tesla is averaging 2,560 Model 3 builds a week. That's pretty close to the 2,200 I mentioned.

Boombergs build data is more optimistic than almost every one of your data points so I figured you were slagging off data.

We can all go find what we want to quote and post away- can we agree on one source for the discussion ? - or should I not bother with discussion in a hater thread?

According to them the 3500 run was followed by a high 2K run - also different than your position

I read it - and that was indeed the first sentence - says a lot about that particular guy printing the article more than investor business daily.

We dont know if the guy that said that was the same guy at Needham because of the way the article is written. He makes two completely separate statements that could be two separate analysts or one. If the guys intention was to link the two he gets an F.

Needhams current position on Tesla is hold- they do indeed have a position to support.

That said - Im not slagging it off -I simply dont believe "Rajvindra Gill" puts as much effort into the subject as bloomberg does - all Ive seen is a quote.


I still prefer seeking alpha as a source of both pro and con data on almost every subject as they dont make you do the homework on someones position by posting at the end of every article.

Do you have a preferred place to get build data? Does IBD have a build tracker ?

Can one take a more pro position that most without having "an agenda"
This is a conversation - not a conspiracy.

UD

 

[rrrr]

You don't need to use quotation marks for Ravjindra Gill. He is a highly respected technology analyst.

Rajvindra Gill
Needham
Wall Street Analyst
Ranked #21 out of 4,828 Analysts on TipRanks (#25 out of 11,361 overall experts)

https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/rajvindra-gill

 

[Uncle Dave]

I dont follow up on these guys much so I dont really know him or any analysts - and I write like hell specially while Im ordering boat parts .

The interesting thing about Rajvindra Gills position on the battery manufacturing being a factor in manufacturing slowdown in interesting as Tesl didnt really have any other options than to build themselves.

Munros tear down assessment is tha the battery is pretty incredible with way better than industry standard deviation per cell - a major factor in the lifespan of the pack at large.

They had to build it themselves Panasonic couldn't deliver what they needed.

UD

 

[Sleek-Jet]

9% reduction in force announced.

 

[sirbob]

About 3000 laid off ...

 

[lbhsbz]

About 3000 laid off ...

That should get the cars built faster.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

About 3000 laid off ...

Should be about 3x that number.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

That should get the cars built faster.

It will certainly get them built cheaper.

We talked about this earlier.. way too many people for the amount of cars they build.

 

[Uncle Dave]

Dont know though if they are cutting bone and not fat - could be bad.

Guessing that probably most needed only to get the line going - might have been planned.


UD

 

[Uncle Dave]

Heres todays update from Bloomberg

 

[rrrr]

I dont follow up on these guys much so I dont really know him or any analysts - and I write like hell specially while Im ordering boat parts .

The interesting thing about Rajvindra Gills position on the battery manufacturing being a factor in manufacturing slowdown in interesting as Tesl didnt really have any other options than to build themselves.

Munros tear down assessment is tha the battery is pretty incredible with way better than industry standard deviation per cell - a major factor in the lifespan of the pack at large.

They had to build it themselves Panasonic couldn't deliver what they needed.

UD

I guess you don't know Panasonic and Tesla are partners in the Nevada gigafactory, a solar panel gigafactory in New York, and are in discussions with the Chinese government to build another gigafactory in that country.

Panasonic does not impede production at Tesla's car manufacturing plant. Musk's claims last year that battery production was affecting the build of Model 3s was more of the deflection he has successfully used for three years regarding the Model 3.

Tesla's battery Gigafactory hits new output levels

https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...gigafactory-hits-new-output-levels/576017002/

 

[rrrr]

Subtract 12,452 from 36,387 then divide that by the 10.6 weeks that have passed in 2Q. What do you get?

Try 2,258 per week. Now do you understand the that Tesla is materially misrepresenting its production numbers? Where's the 5,000 per week and profit that Musk promised for 2Q? Where is the SEC?

 

[highvoltagehands]

That should get the cars built faster.

Dont know though if they are cutting bone and not fat - could be bad.

Guessing that probably most needed only to get the line going - might have been planned.
UD

Tesla is cutting out only salary employees in redundant positions, not production line employees. According to Musk the explosive growth added "barnacles on barnacles" of redundant salary positions and "contractors running wild" that need to be removed. 800 of the positions being cut are Tesla Solar sales reps that work in Home Depot stores. Tesla will no longer be selling solar thru Home Depot, it will be done thru Tesla company stores.

 

[rrrr]

Tesla is cutting out only salary employees in redundant positions, not production line employees. According to Musk the explosive growth added "barnacles on barnacles" of redundant salary positions and "contractors running wild" that need to be removed. 800 of the positions being cut are Tesla Solar sales reps that work in Home Depot stores. Tesla will no longer be selling solar thru Home Depot, it will be done thru Tesla company stores.

So they will have to lease space and hire personnel to replace that sales effort to maintain revenue.

Solar City convertible bonds with +- $280 million face value are maturing in the next two quarters.

If they have "barnacles on barnacles" and "contractors running wild", what does that say about the management of Tesla and Solar City? By making those characterizations, they admit chaos exists in the executive suites.

 

[Uncle Dave]

Subtract 12,452 from 36,387 then divide that by the 10.6 weeks that have passed in 2Q. What do you get?

Try 2,258 per week. Now do you understand the that Tesla is materially misrepresenting it's production numbers? Where's the 5,000 per week and profit that Musk promised for 2Q? Where is the SEC?

The last time you said "I guess you didnt know " - you said tesla killed the base model 3 completely and it turns out that was quite wrong - they didnt.

Yes I know they get the individual cells from panasonic but not the assembled pack - thats wha the gigafactory does.

The article you linked directly contradicts the previous article you sent where Mr gill is quoted as saying the big problem is the batteries. - in the article you linked here - Elon says they are at 3K now - and and exponentially ramping.

You get that the deliveries to date is a ramp right? - so linear division wont work on the numbers.
I havent seen a source from you or anyone I trust more than bloombergs data, but Im open to new or different data

He already slipped the 5K timeframe over week ago and still kept his job and the stock still went up and killed the shorts


Where was the SEC when 08 hit ?
Where was the SEC When boeing was late on the 787 -
- all big projects are late whats the SEC do - rarely anything.



UD

 

[Uncle Dave]

So they will have to lease space and hire personnel to replace that sales effort to maintain revenue.

Solar City convertible bonds with +- $280 million face value are maturing in the next two quarters.

If they have "barnacles on barnacles" and "contractors running wild", what does that say about the management of Tesla and Solar City? By making those characterizations, they admit chaos exists in the executive suites.

It was always their personnel not home depots - and I'm sure space at home depot probably wasnt free - I always thought that was a terrible place to pimp from myself.

Do we know they cant work out of the spaces they have? seem like they 3000 open slots now.

Agreed on the bond maturation- if they didnt factor this into their flow they could be fucked.

UD

 

[highvoltagehands]

So they will have to lease space and hire personnel to replace that sales effort to maintain revenue.

Solar City convertible bonds with +- $280 million face value are maturing in the next two quarters.

If they have "barnacles on barnacles" and "contractors running wild", what does that say about the management of Tesla and Solar City? By making those characterizations, they admit chaos exists in the executive suites.

That is correct. But Tesla already has sales reps & multi-purpose car dealerships/ PowerBlock showrooms across the state and will add solar products to lineup. Elon admitted to making a few mistakes along way and is trying to correct them going forward. He also believes Tesla has gotten over some mighty big humps and once they hit a target milestone like 5K cars week, replicating those figures weekly, only requires minimal adjustments.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2018/06/12/tesla-job-cuts/695042002/

 

[rrrr]

If I use Bloomberg's weekly figures (click on the columns on their website) I get 2,102 per week 2Q average. The week ending 5/29 they built 1,416 cars.

This from USA Today:

"Tesla said it was able to make more than 2,000 Model 3 cars a week during three weeks in April, a big boost from past production levels. It is aiming to hit at least 5,000 a week by summer."

Well, it's summer.

The dates of the articles mentioning batteries are months apart, and even so 3,000 a week is the full output. They can't increase production "exponentially". Don't you think saying they will be building 30,000 per week is a bit ridiculous?

You said:

"They had to build it themselves Panasonic couldn't deliver what they needed."

Now you say:

"Yes I know they get the individual cells from panasonic but not the assembled pack - thats wha the gigafactory does."

So which is it?

Forbes and Kelley Blue Book are on record saying they believe Tesla may not ever build the $35,000 car. Maybe you remember when the Model S base price was $49,900, and then one day it wasn't, going up over $20,000.

 

[Uncle Dave]

If I use Bloomberg's weekly figures (click on the columns on their website) I get 2,102 per week 2Q average. The week ending 5/29 they built 1,416 cars.

This from USA Today:

"Tesla said it was able to make more than 2,000 Model 3 cars a week during three weeks in April, a big boost from past production levels. It is aiming to hit at least 5,000 a week by summer."

Well, it's summer.

The dates of the articles mentioning batteries are months apart, and even so 3,000 a week is the full output. They can't increase production "exponentially". Don't you think saying they will be building 30,000 per week is a bit ridiculous?

You said:

"They had to build it themselves Panasonic couldn't deliver what they needed."

Now you say:

"Yes I know they get the individual cells from panasonic but not the assembled pack - thats wha the gigafactory does."

So which is it?

Forbes and Kelley Blue Book are on record saying they believe Tesla may not ever build the $35,000 car. Maybe you remember when the Model S base price was $49,900, and then one day it wasn't, going up over $20,000.

Yes I said that and its true -

You are confusing the individual cells with the finished packs - I'm not.

Since the Model S tesla has used Panasonic cells. (not sure what the roadster used)

No change in cell suppliers for model X or Model 3 only the pack AH sizes and dimensions are different.

Panasonic could not deliver the completed packs in sufficient numbers to meet quota while building in the US or japan- no way they can barely meet S and X demand.

They would have to expand the japanese plants to do so and would charge very hefty price to do so just for tesla demand.

Assembling the pack from the batteries in such a way that the interconnection all have the same resistance is a real trick thats very hard to do. Munro (3rd part teardown guys) confirmed this when they said the test battery was orders of magnitude better than they've seen.
Its so hard Rajindra Gill (SP?) just placed an open bet against him not being able t do it.

Rather than sending the money to Japan it was decided to make the factory for final assembly here.

Can you imagine the moaning if Telsa did that? " Amercian tax dollars going to create battery factories in japan"! " whose that suumbitch think hee is anyway"

Better to build here, so etc guy invests in American capability and capacity and people still hate him! All they want to talk about s the short time it takes to get it right because you made the harder but way better call for the US and the business itself.

Agreed 30K a week is ridiculous quote for the 3.

Send me the data on the USA todays quote, and the conflicting build quote so I can look at it and the timing of who said what when- there is tons of quoting going on without sources.

If somebody has a better established position on paper lets go with it .

I trust bloomberg has the current production and the total quantity with a few vehicles.




UD

 

[rrrr]

They were making 3,000 batteries a week and Musk said they are making an "exponential" increase, that's 30,000.

He also said they have reduced pack build time from seven hours to seventy minutes. If that were true, they would be making 18,000 per week.

The guy is a charlatan and liar.

Here's your link:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...s-earnings-amid-worries-cash-drain/570753002/

 

[Uncle Dave]

They were making 3,000 batteries a week and Musk said they are making an "exponential" increase, that's 30,000.

He also said they have reduced pack build time from seven hours to seventy minutes. If that were true, they would be making 18,000 per week.

The guy is a charlatan and liar.

Here's your link:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...s-earnings-amid-worries-cash-drain/570753002/

They were making 3,000 batteries a week and Musk said they are making an "exponential" increase, that's 30,000.

He also said they have reduced pack build time from seven hours to seventy minutes. If that were true, they would be making 18,000 per week.

The guy is a charlatan and liar.

Here's your link:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...s-earnings-amid-worries-cash-drain/570753002/

When did the guy say the curve went endlessly to 30K on the batteries?
You are saying that not him.

Complete charlatan no substance at all to anything he ever done - not going with your assessment on the guy but you make you position clear.

Ill read up on the link and check back. Thanks for it.




UD

 

[rrrr]

"Exponential" means an increase of an order of magnitude.

3,000 X 1,000=30,000.

Musk said it, not me. If he doesn't know what big words mean, maybe he shouldn't use them.

 

[Uncle Dave]

"Exponential" means an increase of an order of magnitude.

3,000 X 1,000=30,000.

Musk said it, not me. If he doesn't know what big words mean, maybe he shouldn't use them.

Maybe he doesnt know math - its not like he's a rocket scientist or anything.

Couple definition he could have used.

Ya think maybe he was thinking definition one?

Because he sure didn't say 30K

ex·po·nen·tial
ˌekspəˈnen(t)SH(ə)l/
adjective

1. 1.
   (of an increase) becoming more and more rapid.
   "the social security budget was rising at an exponential rate"
2. 2.
   MATHEMATICS
   of or expressed by a mathematical exponent.
   "an exponential curve"

UD

 

[KENDOG689]

Maybe he doesnt know math - its not like he's a rocket scientist or anything.

Couple definition he could have used.

Ya think maybe he was thinking definition one?

Because he sure didn't say 30K

ex·po·nen·tial
ˌekspəˈnen(t)SH(ə)l/
adjective

1. 1.
   (of an increase) becoming more and more rapid.
   "the social security budget was rising at an exponential rate"
2. 2.
   MATHEMATICS
   of or expressed by a mathematical exponent.
   "an exponential curve"

UD

"Exponential" means an increase of an order of magnitude.

3,000 X 1,000=30,000.

Musk said it, not me. If he doesn't know what big words mean, maybe he shouldn't use them.

You guys are fucking great entertainment.Keep it up.

 

[rcmike]

I'm gonna miss talking to those guys in Home Depot.. I could keep them going for the better part of an hour...