If you are going to sell SELL VERY SOON....

[PaPaG]

FL gulf coast property is taking a beating right now. Everything my realtor is sending me is being slashed in price up to 100k from ask and still sitting. The VRBO properties will be the first to tank along with the RV's and boats. The real estate rocket is out of fuel. I cant wait for Black Rock and other hedge funds to start dumping all their inventory, considering they bought up to 50% of inventory in a lot of markets. Nobody want to talk about that though.

On the Money!, some folks always ignore the writing on the wall, once they start dumping watch the market correct and prices start crashing. Once they do, then its time to buy that vacation or retirement property

 

[Wheeler]

Realtors are not going to be starving in the streets because no one is transacting houses either.

The strong will survive. ...

 

[HTMike]

Any one have the info on HELOC's. I am assuming that a lot of those buying toys are using HELOC's. Just like the mid 2000's. Interest rates go up and so does the heloc payment. Have to sell the toys to pay off the heloc. Can't get enough to pay the heloc or can't sell the toy. Now foreclosure.

It is what happened back then along with the subprime mess. Problem is people didn't learn. Never ever touch the equity period.

My buddy in IL owns a lending company and he said he had a stack of refi cash outs so tall it was going to take his crew of eight several months to finalize... enough to where they were not excepting any new clients.

 

[badgas]

On the Money!, some folks always ignore the writing on the wall, once they start dumping watch the market correct and prices start crashing. Once they do, then its time to buy that vacation or retirement property

I bought my vacation property in 2020 ( I thought it was the top ) when things were rocketing upward not crashing. It has increased by 30%-35% That would be risky to sell it, pay fees and then wait for $40%-45% correction to re buy so I could be ahead of where I am now.

market timing is not easy.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

The strong will survive. ... View attachment 1110131

I’ve got an excellent sausage and velveta dip recipe…

 

[Jay Dub]

I will just buy something cheap (relative) to run that I can’t get hurt on. I love my boat but financially everytime I think of what it costs and what it is worth it gives me chest pains.. lol

Went from a 55,000 dollar Schiada and a 50k Hallett to a 200+k toon that is worth about a quarter now..

I’m not a baller.. I’m not sure I have any biz running a quarter million dollar toon.

That twin-engine Hallett was very nice for the money. I'd have no problem running that all day.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I bought my vacation property in 2020 ( I thought it was the top ) when things were rocketing upward not crashing. It has increased by 30%-35% That would be risky to sell it, pay fees and then wait for $40%-45% correction to re buy so I could be ahead of where I am now.

market timing is not easy.

It took 6 years from top to bottom last time. I understand this isn’t last time but being out a vacation house for half a decade? Unless you stopped vacationing, is 10% even worth the trouble? In another 10 years you won’t even care about that 10%.

 

[Cdog]

Shit I'll sell. 2.6 brand new
View attachment 1110126
View attachment 1110117 View attachment 1110118 View attachment 1110119 View attachment 1110120 View attachment 1110121 View attachment 1110122 View attachment 1110123 View attachment 1110124 View attachment 1110125

The house looks great! You gotta live somewhere..

 

[badgas]

It took 6 years from top to bottom last time. I understand this isn’t last time but being out a vacation house for half a decade? Unless you stopped vacationing, is 10% even worth the trouble?

No sir ! 10% is not worth it that was my point. To be honest 50% would not be worth it because if things were that bad I would have nowhere to park the cash.

 

[Wheeler]

I’ve got an excellent sausage and velveta dip recipe…

Is it formulated for induction or cast iron skillet ? asking for a friend

@rivermobster

 

[Cdog]

I’m welcoming the change in the market. The last time I sold off everything late 2006 and waited till 2009 to buy again. We had our first kid in 2007 & priorities were different. Family home in the right place to give the kids the best opportunities.

This time around it’s about retirement planning & buying rentals/short sales at the bottom. Maybe a vacation rental or two and land in Florida & Wyoming or Montana. We know where it will head when shit gets retarded again………

 

[monkeyswrench]

Prices in Prescott are bat shit loony. Nothing in the local economy can support the prices I see up there. I predict a big correction there. Buckle up!!

I fully agree, and I'm just a podunk idiot! The local economy wasn't able to support what we had up here 10 years ago, let alone now.

5 years ago, I had a friend tell me I should borrow against my house to build my shop. House had been paid for for some time then, and I thought it a poor idea to have a payment again. They used the term "free money"...I've yet to see "free money". A lot of people seem to have moved here and never lived this good before. Had one (now ex) customer that borrowed against his home to buy an old car. Even I know that's stupid!

530 touched on something that I'd been thinking about, inflation. The homes' true values are being masked by multiple issues. Obviously, here we have the inflated prices due to refugees from Cali. That will slow eventually. The problem I see, as those slow, our dollar is losing buying power. Let's say 10%...that's a big number when talking about large purchases. Add to that the rising interest rates, and things can get bad.

Now, financially speaking, I'm pretty much talking out of my ass. I have no real estate experience other than owning a couple homes. I also have little to no investment knowledge. My predictions are based on common sense, which has pretty much disappeared the past few years

 

[BHC Vic]

I’m welcoming the change in the market. The last time I sold off everything late 2006 and waited till 2009 to buy again. We had our first kid in 2007 & priorities were different. Family home in the right place to give the kids the best opportunities.

This time around it’s about retirement planning & buying rentals/short sales at the bottom. Maybe a vacation rental or two and land in Florida & Wyoming or Montana. We know where it will head when shit gets retarded again………

I have some inside info for union work in Montana and Wyoming. Both are on my radar and both play into my retirement perfect as far as time and location.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Is it formulated for induction or cast iron skillet ? asking for a friend

@rivermobster

Skillet to cook the sausage.. pot to melt down the billet of processed cheese.

Party size-

1 small bag frozen corn or 1-2 cups

2-3 lbs Farmer John frozen breakfast sausage or whatever sausage you like. (I go for the sausage fest and add 3 lbs.)

Big velvetta 2 lb brick

Rotel - 2 cans ( I use 1 hot 1 regular)

Cook sausage, cut it up, throw the velveeta billet in the pot along with with everything else. Stir until molten hot and serve with chips.

Pro tip- I’ve spread this dip on burgers a few times too.

 

[Havasu blue label]

Heloc rates go up people cannot pay stock market is great but you have to pay taxes but a great story

 

[WildWilly]

Skillet to cook the sausage.. pot to melt down the billet of processed cheese.

Party size-

1 small bag frozen corn or 1-2 cups

2-3 lbs Farmer John frozen breakfast sausage or whatever sausage you like. (I go for the sausage fest and add 3 lbs.)

Big velvetta 2 lb brick

Rotel - 2 cans ( I use 1 hot 1 regular)

Cook sausage, cut it up, throw the velveeta billet in the pot along with with everything else. Stir until molten hot and serve with chips.

Pro tip- I’ve spread this dip on burgers a few times too.

thats actually a variation of "white trash dip" I was introduced to a few years back, just sub cream cheese for velveeta. and yes its pretty damn good and a bit hit at parties

 

[badgas]

Skillet to cook the sausage.. pot to melt down the billet of processed cheese.

Party size-

1 small bag frozen corn or 1-2 cups

2-3 lbs Farmer John frozen breakfast sausage or whatever sausage you like. (I go for the sausage fest and add 3 lbs.)

Big velvetta 2 lb brick

Rotel - 2 cans ( I use 1 hot 1 regular)

Cook sausage, cut it up, throw the velveeta billet in the pot along with with everything else. Stir until molten hot and serve with chips.

Pro tip- I’ve spread this dip on burgers a few times too.

Do you have a name for this dip ?

I suggest "Widowmaker "

Sounds scary good

I imagine chopped up carne asada would also work in place of the sausage

 

[240Hallett]

Construction of new homes and development will be hit hard most of those buyers don’t qualify anymore Havasu is in for big eye opener it will happen quick

Does this mean it will be easier/faster to get stuff built in Havasu?

 

[Cdog]

I have some inside info for union work in Montana and Wyoming. Both are on my radar and both play into my retirement perfect as far as time and location.

Wyoming is a no income tax state.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Do you have a name for this dip ?

I suggest "Widowmaker "

Sounds scary good

I imagine chopped up carne asada would also work in place of the sausage

Yes carne would be excellent! Great idea!

I’ve caught more than one person eating the dip like a soup. I refuse to turn them in to the sodium police though.

 

[MPHSystems]

It is a blood bath on the market today

 

[Cdog]

I fully agree, and I'm just a podunk idiot! The local economy wasn't able to support what we had up here 10 years ago, let alone now.

5 years ago, I had a friend tell me I should borrow against my house to build my shop. House had been paid for for some time then, and I thought it a poor idea to have a payment again. They used the term "free money"...I've yet to see "free money". A lot of people seem to have moved here and never lived this good before. Had one (now ex) customer that borrowed against his home to buy an old car. Even I know that's stupid!

530 touched on something that I'd been thinking about, inflation. The homes' true values are being masked by multiple issues. Obviously, here we have the inflated prices due to refugees from Cali. That will slow eventually. The problem I see, as those slow, our dollar is losing buying power. Let's say 10%...that's a big number when talking about large purchases. Add to that the rising interest rates, and things can get bad.

Now, financially speaking, I'm pretty much talking out of my ass. I have no real estate experience other than owning a couple homes. I also have little to no investment knowledge. My predictions are based on common sense, which has pretty much disappeared the past few years

I’ll be the contrarian to your move there. A couple years ago would’ve been a great time to pull out some equity and build a shop if you were using that shop to make money. Provided that shop made you money and you were able to show that on a W-2 or 1099 you would’ve been able to refinance at 2.7% on a 30 year fixed. Hedging for inflation and utilizing your assets to make money in any market moving forward.

 

[941Punk]

FL gulf coast property is taking a beating right now. Everything my realtor is sending me is being slashed in price up to 100k from ask and still sitting. The VRBO properties will be the first to tank along with the RV's and boats. The real estate rocket is out of fuel. I cant wait for Black Rock and other hedge funds to start dumping all their inventory, considering they bought up to 50% of inventory in a lot of markets. Nobody want to talk about that though.

The guy next door to me was on the market for about 12 hours last week, I wouldn't surprised if he got 50k over. Who knows..

 

[MSum661]

It is a blood bath on the market today

Across the board due to more Russian nuke war warning rhetoric today

Russia’s Lavrov: Threat of nuclear war ‘should not be underestimated’

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov late on Monday said that the threat of nuclear war amid the war in Ukraine “should not be underestimated.” In an interview with Russian-state medi…

thehill.com

 

[Your ad here]

I’ll be the contrarian to your move there. A couple years ago would’ve been a great time to pull out some equity and build a shop if you were using that shop to make money. Provided that shop made you money and you were able to show that on a W-2 or 1099 you would’ve been able to refinance at 2.7% on a 30 year fixed. Hedging for inflation and utilizing your assets to make money in any market moving forward.

Good debt? As long as you work it, which would be the shop.

 

[Cdog]

Good debt? As long as you work it, which would be the shop.

Also locks in security not being screwed over by a landlord renting a shop. Commercial properties in Arizona are traded like baseball cards or rich assholes buying hot rods at Barrett Jackson.

 

[MPHSystems]

Across the board due to more Russian nuke war warning rhetoric today

Russia’s Lavrov: Threat of nuclear war ‘should not be underestimated’

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov late on Monday said that the threat of nuclear war amid the war in Ukraine “should not be underestimated.” In an interview with Russian-state medi…

thehill.com

Fucking Russians. Why didn’t they hack the election to get Trump a 2nd term?

 

[BHC Vic]

Across the board due to more Russian nuke war warning rhetoric today

Russia’s Lavrov: Threat of nuclear war ‘should not be underestimated’

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov late on Monday said that the threat of nuclear war amid the war in Ukraine “should not be underestimated.” In an interview with Russian-state medi…

thehill.com

Oddly enough country 105 was testing the emergency broadcast system this morning

 

[Go-Fly]

Can’t sell the jet.. how would ya come visit?

Gotta show ya the new shop

It's been awhile. We're gonna need 8 hrs and a case of beer just to catch up. You would not believe what I was doing back in DC.

 

[monkeyswrench]

I’ll be the contrarian to your move there. A couple years ago would’ve been a great time to pull out some equity and build a shop if you were using that shop to make money. Provided that shop made you money and you were able to show that on a W-2 or 1099 you would’ve been able to refinance at 2.7% on a 30 year fixed. Hedging for inflation and utilizing your assets to make money in any market moving forward.

You see, that's how smart people handle things.

I threw an LS motor in a 49 pickup and sold it for the extra money. Total money invested in truck was roughly 7k. Time was hard to track, but roughly 40 hours. No, not a show winner, but it was "resale red". So, in it for under 10, because I'm cheap and don't pay myself much, and sold for just under 20k. In my eyes, that was a good return on investment, as it was now added to my home, which I already owned.

The way I see it, if I get racked up, and can't used the shop for anything, it would be foolish to be paying. Having spent a few months in that position before, it would kill me for my wife or kids to have to pay for my stuff, if I'm injured or dead.

 

[MSum661]

Fucking Russians. Why didn’t they hack the election to get Trump a 2nd term? View attachment 1110143

They probably could've but maybe becuase JoeBama Obrandon is so easy to beat up on. Just think....they still have two years to work the old man.

 

[Cdog]

You see, that's how smart people handle things.

I threw an LS motor in a 49 pickup and sold it for the extra money. Total money invested in truck was roughly 7k. Time was hard to track, but roughly 40 hours. No, not a show winner, but it was "resale red". So, in it for under 10, because I'm cheap and don't pay myself much, and sold for just under 20k. In my eyes, that was a good return on investment, as it was now added to my home, which I already owned.

The way I see it, if I get racked up, and can't used the shop for anything, it would be foolish to be paying. Having spent a few months in that position before, it would kill me for my wife or kids to have to pay for my stuff, if I'm injured or dead.

Cash business building HOt rods. See the light my friend !!!!

 

[Bpracing1127]

My friend who is a realtor in Lexington KY has had the worst 4 months since he became a realtor 7 years ago. Only sold 2 homes.

Another friend who does mortgages in KY said refi have stopped altogether.

 

[JDKRXW]

Is the cleaning Lady / Sammich maker included in sale?

Shit ... I can't afford the appliances in that place

 

[monkeyswrench]

Cash business building HOt rods. See the light my friend !!!!

Whatever do you speak of?

It's just a shed to store tools and equipment...

 

[Cole Trickle]

My friend who is a realtor in Lexington KY has had the worst 4 months since he became a realtor 7 years ago. Only sold 2 homes.

Another friend who does mortgages in KY said refi have stopped altogether.

inventory sucks and rates are now almost 5.25% if not worse on cash out or investment properties.

Refi's sold themselves for many years as you could buy a new rzr/rv/boat with the cash out and your payment stayed the same or was decreased. The guy i used to refi the CA house into a 15 year about 20 months ago reached out and when we talked he said his office was dead. New purchases were still happening but the boom is over. This is a guy that was slaying it and i wouldn't be surprised if he was making 300-500k a year. (hopefully he put some of the $$$ away i know he spent about 250k on his backyard last year)

The free money is over (for now) and the true long term professionals will prevail just like last time.....I imagine the lay off's in that industry will be huge.

Something is definitely coming.. How bad it is nobody really knows.

 

[clarence]

If it's in Boise, he better get out of it. That place could be the epicenter of the downturn. If it's in CDA, he should be able to get out of it, still tons of demand up there. For now.

"If you're wondering where the U.S. real estate market might start to show its first cracks, keep an eye on Boise, Idaho."

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[MSum661]

Some current "60 day" stats using California as the bellwether.

Foreclosure inventory stats have jumped from 13,169 in February to 14,695 today.
For Sale inventory stats have also jumped from 25,781 in February to 30,405 today.

Recently Sold Properties (last 6 months) dropped from 496K to 463K. A difference of 33,000.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Seasonality may play a part in the increase and inventory, but in the last few days, I am seeing inventory increases and price reductions in the markets we are watching. In Montana, the homes listed for a little over $1M have been reduced to the $900's. ($100K price reductions are common it seems) This will drive the $850K homes down and so forth with some time if it holds.

It seems activity to the downward trend is accelerating and more people are shifting from bulls to bears on housing. This spring selling season could set the trend for 2022-2023.

The best-case scenario I can see is a housing market correction that shifts from sellers to buyers followed by a reversal of FED policy so anyone taking advantage of the housing dip, could refinance at a lower rate in 2 years. It's a stretch, but a boy can dream.

 

[PlumLoco]

Things are definitely cooling off, and in a big way. https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-new-home-sales-crashed-march

 

[Havasu blue label]

It means the contractor that floats draws from one job to another is in deep shit .can’t pay the subs but they have the new boat

 

[MSum661]

It means the contractor that floats draws from one job to another is in deep shit .can’t pay the subs but they have the new boat

Sounds like somebody I once knew in the boat building business

 

[cofooter]

The strong will survive. ... View attachment 1110131

Wheeler, I'll be joining you out in Fort Bou-se

 

[Havasu blue label]

By next week there should be two lots that are 60 days late sad but people get greedy

 

[monkeyswrench]

It means the contractor that floats draws from one job to another is in deep shit .can’t pay the subs but they have the new boat

I saw that when I was bidding roofs. I'd see competing bids and I'd tell people I couldn't even get the materials for that price. I couldn't figure it out. Later, I found that some were running tabs at the yards, and skipped on them. Constantly digging a hole. Don't know if they meant to pay, or just meant to bail

 

[gqchris]

I saw that when I was bidding roofs. I'd see competing bids and I'd tell people I couldn't even get the materials for that price. I couldn't figure it out. Later, I found that some were running tabs at the yards, and skipped on them. Constantly digging a hole. Don't know if they meant to pay, or just meant to bail

my friends and I call that "Jacking off the Dog to Feed the Cat!"

Never ends well!

 

[monkeyswrench]

my friends and I call that "Jacking off the Dog to Feed the Cat!"

Never ends well!

Well, it does for the dog...

 

[Danger Dave]

Across the board due to more Russian nuke war warning rhetoric today

Russia’s Lavrov: Threat of nuclear war ‘should not be underestimated’

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov late on Monday said that the threat of nuclear war amid the war in Ukraine “should not be underestimated.” In an interview with Russian-state medi…

thehill.com

If the Russian nukes work as well as the rest of their armed forces I'm not losing any sleep.

 

[Danger Dave]

Seasonality may play a part in the increase and inventory, but in the last few days, I am seeing inventory increases and price reductions in the markets we are watching. In Montana, the homes listed for a little over $1M have been reduced to the $900's. ($100K price reductions are common it seems) This will drive the $850K homes down and so forth with some time if it holds.

It seems activity to the downward trend is accelerating and more people are shifting from bulls to bears on housing. This spring selling season could set the trend for 2022-2023.

The best-case scenario I can see is a housing market correction that shifts from sellers to buyers followed by a reversal of FED policy so anyone taking advantage of the housing dip, could refinance at a lower rate in 2 years. It's a stretch, but a boy can dream.

We chased a house near Kalispell last week, I gave up at $65K over asking, there's not much inventory so the nice ones are going quick and over asking for the most part.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

We chased a house near Kalispell last week, I gave up at $65K over asking, there's not much inventory so the nice ones are going quick and over asking for the most part.

I'm hopeful it slows down. We are looking in the same area. The first choice is Bigfork.