If you are going to sell SELL VERY SOON....

[Flying_Lavey]

You illustrated my point exactly. No one is walking away from their houses... not enough to be a significant enough factor to implode the economy.

Who said there won't be a recession? I never said that. I have said for 7 years "Wake me when the economy starts shedding jobs" We did in 2020, and we probably will be again here soon.

There was 10+ years of buying into low prices at historically low rates. The majority of those people have equity, and/or have a payment lower than rent in the area. That is not a recipe for walking away. If you are holding your breath waiting for the entire housing market to drop 40% again, you will pass out.

If you bought in the last 18 months, Yea you might be paying more than rent in most parts of the country.

Where did I illustrate your point? I did not mention anything about walking away from their houses in my post.

In order for a market to change there must be a change to either the supply (which everybody has focused on with the comparisons to '08) or to demand. My point being I think there will be a MASSIVE (relative to the recent out of control demand) reduction in demand and an increase (the volume being up in the air) in supply. Resulting in a substantial weakening of the market of which nobody knows, but still does not expect the extent of '08.

Think about this as well.... how many homes were bought by corporations as assets in the last crisis versus in the last few years? What is the basic principal to making money in markets.....? Buy low sell high. All experts agree now (I've seen the articles over the past few months come into alignment) that there will be a drop in most all markets and most likely coming this year. Hence, the top of the market.

 

[MPHSystems]

My investments are down almost 20% since this thread started

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Where did I illustrate your point? I did not mention anything about walking away from their houses in my post.

In order for a market to change there must be a change to either the supply (which everybody has focused on with the comparisons to '08) or to demand. My point being I think there will be a MASSIVE (relative to the recent out of control demand) reduction in demand and an increase (the volume being up in the air) in supply. Resulting in a substantial weakening of the market of which nobody knows, but still does not expect the extent of '08.

Think about this as well.... how many homes were bought by corporations as assets in the last crisis versus in the last few years? What is the basic principal to making money in markets.....? Buy low sell high. All experts agree now (I've seen the articles over the past few months come into alignment) that there will be a drop in most all markets and most likely coming this year. Hence, the top of the market.

I agree there will be a decrease in demand, we are seeing it. Where is this massive supply of houses going to come from? Leveraged individuals that have bought rental homes? My point is people are not going to voluntarily leave their houses when they have no reason to. I don't see leveraged rentals alone driving supply in a huge way across the nation. I see areas that have had the most aggressive growth being most impacted.

That is the point.

 

[Havasu blue label]

It’s time to buy into the stock market it will move fast

 

[BHC Vic]

My buddy is in a rough spot. He can’t afford to move back. He’s going to stay with a friend during the week and go to Idaho on the weekends. This will test his marriage for sure.

 

[Flying_Lavey]

I agree there will be a decrease in demand, we are seeing it. Where is this massive supply of houses going to come from? Leveraged individuals that have bought rental homes? My point is people are not going to voluntarily leave their houses when they have no reason to. I don't see leveraged rentals alone driving supply in a huge way across the nation. I see areas that have had the most aggressive growth being most impacted.

That is the point.

reread my post. I said Massive decrease in demand. Slight increase in supply most likely.

 

[c_land]

reread my post. I said Massive decrease in demand. Slight increase in supply most likely.

I agree that we will probably have both, to what degree who knows. The US is closing in on building more houses today than it did in the 70's.

It's hard to form a forward looking opinion on that market since it moves so slow. The most current data for housing is already 30 days late by the time we get to see after an escrow closes. We probably still have a lot of people under contract with a sub 4% rate after they got a shopping rate lock. It will be interesting to see what happens to demand when we are truly experiencing buyers at 5% rates. And then again after the Fed starts letting treasuries/MBS come off the balance sheet at full tilt in august.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

reread my post. I said Massive decrease in demand. Slight increase in supply most likely.

Once again, we are saying the same thing. No one said there wont be a recession in the future.

Realtors are not going to be starving in the streets because no one is transacting houses either.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I agree that we will probably have both, to what degree who knows. The US is closing in on building more houses today than it did in the 70's.

It's hard to form a forward looking opinion on that market since it moves so slow. The most current data for housing is already 30 days late by the time we get to see after an escrow closes. We probably still have a lot of people under contract with a sub 4% rate after they got a shopping rate lock. It will be interesting to see what happens to demand when we are truly experiencing buyers at 5% rates. And then again after the Fed starts letting treasuries/MBS come off the balance sheet at full tilt in august.

View attachment 1109967

We might be at the peak but we haven't even turned down the other way yet. All those drops took YEARS from peak to valley.

 

[Wheeler]

Realtors are not going to be starving in the streets because no one is transacting houses either.

At least not while MRE's and Monavie are in great supply.

 

[Flying_Lavey]

Once again, we are saying the same thing. No one said there wont be a recession in the future.

Realtors are not going to be starving in the streets because no one is transacting houses either.

Meh.... not really. You seem to be suggesting that there is going to be a slight decrease and there are no similarities to '08 at all. I have mentioned several similarities and am suggesting there will be a much larger, but still no '08 level, drop in the market.

 

[Havasu blue label]

You make me laugh mr orange

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Meh.... not really. You seem to be suggesting that there is going to be a slight decrease and there are no similarities to '08 at all. I have mentioned several similarities and am suggesting there will be a much larger, but still no '08 level, drop in the market.

Those “several similarities” are the same ingredients in just about every recession in the last 60+ years…. High gas prices, increase costs of living, high interest rates, stalled job market.

Each recession has its own nuances, but the causes and cycles are nothing new.

I don’t know where I said “slight decrease” or what that even means. We have already seen a “slight decrease” economically from the peaks this year.

Things may go back to 2019 prices which recall everyone said could go no higher. Now everyone here is begging to buy a truck, house or toy at 2019 prices.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

You make me laugh mr orange

If I could decode most of your posts, we could laugh together I guess?

 

[HB2Havasu]

They do. We are on the cusp of the largest generational wealth transfer ever. That push alone will allow Gen Xers and Millennials previously unable to enter the market to enter the home buying market either with money or inheriting real estate.

Regardless of what happens, if we do enter a recession, rates are going back down.

IMO we are already in a recession, with stagflation just on the horizon. However the numbers to validate this won't be released until July/August timeframe. Don't be surprised when the Dems try to spend their way out of this quagmire they've created before the midterm elections with another round of Stimulus. The good news is the Cavalry is coming in November.

 

[Havasu blue label]

No decoding needed you just make me laugh you are a very smart man

 

[EmpirE231]

rates continue to rise... jobs shed
stock markets continue downward spriral..... jobs shed

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

rates continue to rise... jobs shed
stock markets continue downward spriral..... jobs shed

That is pretty much it.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

IMO we are already in a recession, with stagflation just on the horizon. However the numbers to validate this won't be released until July/August timeframe. Don't be surprised when the Dems try to spend their way of of this quagmire they've created before the midterm elections with another round of Stimulus. The good news is the Cavalry is coming in November.

Agreed on all counts. Have we already entered stagflation?

 

[Havasu blue label]

90 days son

 

[RiverDave]

I aint sellin' shit!




But seriously, Sell the truck for 10k more than I paid? Still have to buy another.
Sell the Yukon for some stupid inflated price? Wife wants an Escalade.
Sell the boat for 3 times what I paid? Then I'd want a Tiger for 4 times what I paid.
Sell the house for 2.5 mil? Now need to go move somewhere else and be taxed at new rate etc. etc.


Unless you have a fleet of toys and houses and shit and can sell without needing to replace, meh, it's all relative.

I am thinking about selling everything but the house, and seriously reducing everything..

Sell the dually, sell the motorhome, sell the boat etc.. I can get all the money for them right now. Six months from now that 1/4 million dollar boat might be worth 125. . Same with everything else

 

[530RL]

I agree that we will probably have both, to what degree who knows. The US is closing in on building more houses today than it did in the 70's.

It's hard to form a forward looking opinion on that market since it moves so slow. The most current data for housing is already 30 days late by the time we get to see after an escrow closes. We probably still have a lot of people under contract with a sub 4% rate after they got a shopping rate lock. It will be interesting to see what happens to demand when we are truly experiencing buyers at 5% rates. And then again after the Fed starts letting treasuries/MBS come off the balance sheet at full tilt in august.

View attachment 1109967

That is Single and Multi Family construction.

Here is SF alone which is roughly half of the total.

 

[HTMike]

FL gulf coast property is taking a beating right now. Everything my realtor is sending me is being slashed in price up to 100k from ask and still sitting. The VRBO properties will be the first to tank along with the RV's and boats. The real estate rocket is out of fuel. I cant wait for Black Rock and other hedge funds to start dumping all their inventory, considering they bought up to 50% of inventory in a lot of markets. Nobody want to talk about that though.

 

[Flying_Lavey]

FL gulf coast property is taking a beating right now. Everything my realtor is sending me is being slashed in price up to 100k from ask and still sitting. The VRBO properties will be the first to tank along with the RV's and boats. The real estate rocket is out of fuel. I cant wait for Black Rock and other hedge funds to start dumping all their inventory, considering they bought up to 50% of inventory in a lot of markets. Nobody want to talk about that though.

Exactly why I mentioned it in post #151

 

[Hammer]

I am thinking about selling everything but the house, and seriously reducing everything..

Sell the dually, sell the motorhome, sell the boat etc.. I can get all the money for them right now. Six months from now that 1/4 million dollar boat might be worth 125. . Same with everything else

Sell Dave…. I’ll rent you my 300 when you want to go boating. Win/win

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

FL gulf coast property is taking a beating right now. Everything my realtor is sending me is being slashed in price up to 100k from ask and still sitting. The VRBO properties will be the first to tank along with the RV's and boats. The real estate rocket is out of fuel. I cant wait for Black Rock and other hedge funds to start dumping all their inventory, considering they bought up to 50% of inventory in a lot of markets. Nobody want to talk about that though.

Explain to me why they would “dump” their holdings in a down market to further dilute the market when they have infinite monies to buy up distressed properties in a down market.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Exactly why I mentioned it in post #151

Yep, buy high and sell low is how they make their money

 

[Havasu blue label]

Yes including parts of Nevada and Arizona investers want there money pulled out

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

90 days son

Until what dad?

 

[530RL]

FL gulf coast property is taking a beating right now. Everything my realtor is sending me is being slashed in price up to 100k from ask and still sitting. The VRBO properties will be the first to tank along with the RV's and boats. The real estate rocket is out of fuel. I cant wait for Black Rock and other hedge funds to start dumping all their inventory, considering they bought up to 50% of inventory in a lot of markets. Nobody want to talk about that though.

If it is happening, this number should come up very quickly.

And this one also if it is not just a local trend.

 

[gqchris]

I am thinking about selling everything but the house, and seriously reducing everything..

Sell the dually, sell the motorhome, sell the boat etc.. I can get all the money for them right now. Six months from now that 1/4 million dollar boat might be worth 125. . Same with everything else

You better do it soon Dave. Its exactly what I did, but I sold during the Covid Gold. You better act now because things have already started to fizzle.

 

[Havasu blue label]

Until your 18 months are up

 

[Havasu blue label]

It’s always good to have cash on hand sold 2 Havasu properties in 2 years paid the taxes and ready for the next investment

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Until your 18 months are up

Remember the decoder conversation?

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

If it is happening, this number should come up very quickly.

View attachment 1109995
And this one also if it is not just a local trend.

View attachment 1109996

Like quicker than it ever has in the history they have been keeping track

 

[Havasu blue label]

Just chilling in the shade today long weekend

 

[BHC Vic]

I remember the part in the big short when investors wanted out…

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I remember the part in the big short when investors wanted out…

Recall they wanted out of their subprime mortgage derivatives, that were suddenly worth nothing. An assload of residential RE is never worth nothing.. in fact you can sit on it and receive a monthly dividend in the form of rent.

The lesson learned from investment firms in 08 was to control the RE market directly without any middlemen. When they control enough of the RE they can manipulate the market.

 

[HTMike]

Yep, buy high and sell low is how they make their money

When the government has your back you always make money.

 

[HTMike]

If it is happening, this number should come up very quickly.

View attachment 1109995

I said house prices were being slashed not more houses were becoming available. I am on a private hub with her and all the listing prices in the particular area and price spread ( 750k - 1.4mm ) have a red arrow down.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

When the government has your back you always make money.

More reason why there is no reason to sell.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I said house prices were being slashed not more houses were becoming available. I am on a private hub with her and all the listing prices in the particular area and price spread ( 750k - 1.4mm ) have a red arrow down.

Of course they are being slashed.. I don't think anyone by 2FF is arguing that prices are gonna go up another 20% this year.

 

[Tank]

I am thinking about selling everything but the house, and seriously reducing everything..

Sell the dually, sell the motorhome, sell the boat etc.. I can get all the money for them right now. Six months from now that 1/4 million dollar boat might be worth 125. . Same with everything else

Yep. I agree. But not willing to sell everything and sit and wait. Historically speaking, Bubble should’ve popped or adjusted 2018 as the market historically corrects every 10 years. So those that said fuck it I’m out! 4 years ago are still waiting.

I do think it’s coming though. Inflation and this administration’s horrendous policies will ensure it.

 

[530RL]

I said house prices were being slashed not more houses were becoming available. I am on a private hub with her and all the listing prices in the particular area and price spread ( 750k - 1.4mm ) have a red arrow down.

Out of curiosity is it asking prices or sales prices?

In any event if housing prices did not go down, but simply quit going up, and inflation remained at 8 percent a year, every homeowner is losing 8% per year in real terms.

High inflation can help a lot to keep nominal prices flat, while real prices are falling.

 

[HTMike]

Out of curiosity is it asking prices or sales prices?

In any event if housing prices did not go down, but simply quit going up, and inflation remained at 8 percent a year, every homeowner is losing 8% per year in real terms.

High inflation can help a lot to keep nominal prices flat, while real prices are falling.

Asking.

I was getting into bidding wars ( and losing ) 3 months ago.. now inventory is magically sitting and asking prices are going down at a good pace.


If I knew exactly what was going on I'd be flying around on a jet, not posting on here.

 

[badgas]

I am thinking about selling everything but the house, and seriously reducing everything..

Sell the dually, sell the motorhome, sell the boat etc.. I can get all the money for them right now. Six months from now that 1/4 million dollar boat might be worth 125. . Same with everything else

If you can afford them or they are paid off and you really enjoy them then keep them. I you don't use them then sell them anyway as they are not worth keeping around.

Hard to time it all

 

[530RL]

If I knew exactly what was going on I'd be flying around on a jet, not posting on here.

I think the goal is to be able to do both simultaneously......

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Regardless of what happens, if we do enter a recession, rates are going back down.

I totally agree. This tightening of monetary policy is designed to provide room for future quantitative easing and combat recession fear.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

My buddy is in a rough spot. He can’t afford to move back. He’s going to stay with a friend during the week and go to Idaho on the weekends. This will test his marriage for sure.

Free advice, he needs to figure it out quickly. About ten years ago, Angie and I had to do this. It was extremely hard on our marriage. I would never do this again. The cost of travel goes from weekends to once a month (or less). Maintaining two households was expensive. The emotional toll of not having your partner is like a wound that does not heal and starts to get infected.

If he likes the job and the wife, sell the Idaho property and go back. Take the hit now. It could be bigger later. Or find a job in Idaho.

 

[RiverDave]

Sell Dave…. I’ll rent you my 300 when you want to go boating. Win/win

I will just buy something cheap (relative) to run that I can’t get hurt on. I love my boat but financially everytime I think of what it costs and what it is worth it gives me chest pains.. lol

Went from a 55,000 dollar Schiada and a 50k Hallett to a 200+k toon that is worth about a quarter now..

I’m not a baller.. I’m not sure I have any biz running a quarter million dollar toon.