If you are going to sell SELL VERY SOON....

[DWC]

So we will see you in a Magic deck! Saw one with a roll bar and a CC like bimini this weekend.. Looked neat and functional.

Buddy has a Howard with some badass power with a CC hard cover. Really nice boat.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Buddy has a Howard with some badass power with a CC hard cover. Really nice boat.

Met a guy about a year ago that said him and his dad have a Howard with a hard top… wonder if it’s the same Howard.

 

[DWC]

Met a guy about a year ago that said him and his dad have a Howard with a hard top… wonder if it’s the same Howard.

Guessing it’s the same boat. The son is a good kid. Loves boats as much as anyone on RDP.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Guessing it’s the same boat. The son is a good kid. Loves boats as much as anyone on RDP.

View attachment 1110493

Yep that’s it. Small world. I was going to say blue Howard deck boat, but that describes 95% of them.

 

[kurtis500]

If the Russian nukes work as well as the rest of their armed forces I'm not losing any sleep.

The Russians can put an old Soyuz rocket, with Americans on it, dead on to a space station orbiting the earth.. And do it over and over again for decades.

They could drop dozens of ICBM's with multiple MIRV's over every major city in the US. Every major US city will have 6-10 detonations at once, and thats just the first round. Its WAY easier than hitting the space station

Their nuclear force is the one place Russia never cut back even after being split up.

 

[Danger Dave]

The Russians can put an old Soyuz rocket, with Americans on it, dead on to a space station orbiting the earth.. And do it over and over again for decades.

They could drop dozens of ICBM's with multiple MIRV's over every major city in the US. Every major US city will have 6-10 detonations at once, and thats just the first round. Its WAY easier than hitting the space station

Their nuclear force is the one place Russia never cut back even after being split up.

You should stay in your house then.

 

[LuauLounge]

So are we going broke or dying from nuclear attack?
Trying to figure out my calendar.......

 

[boatdoc55]

The Russians can put an old Soyuz rocket, with Americans on it, dead on to a space station orbiting the earth.. And do it over and over again for decades.

They could drop dozens of ICBM's with multiple MIRV's over every major city in the US. Every major US city will have 6-10 detonations at once, and thats just the first round. Its WAY easier than hitting the space station

Their nuclear force is the one place Russia never cut back even after being split up.

By-By OC nice to have known ya.

 

[Wheeler]

It's a good time to be old.

 

[Icky]

So are we going broke or dying from nuclear attack?
Trying to figure out my calendar.......

You should start a new thread with a poll

 

[kurtis500]

You should stay in your house then.

^^
this is what a response looks like when you dont know what you're talking about

 

[RiverDave]

Buddy has a Howard with some badass power with a CC hard cover. Really nice boat.

Love that boat!

 

[HNL2LHC]

So are we going broke or dying from nuclear attack?
Trying to figure out my calendar.......

Don’t forget starving to death….

 

[kurtis500]

Don’t forget starving to death….

The Fed may lack the tools to tame food prices

As Credit Suisse’s economist Zoltan Pozsar aptly observed recently: The Fed can “print money, but not oil to heat or wheat to eat.”

thehill.com

 

[brgrcru]

So are we going broke or dying from nuclear attack?
Trying to figure out my calendar.......

First will go broke
Then starve
Then the nukes will start falling
Then that fucking meteor. Will finally finish us off

 

[Wheeler]

Don’t forget starving to death….

I've been perfecting my rattle snake stew recipe. The Parkabilly will survive!

 

[Havasu blue label]

Just enjoy life and watch your spending

 

[Danger Dave]

^^
this is what a response looks like when you dont know what you're talking about

Okay Vladimir.

 

[cofooter]

First will go broke
Then starve
Then the nukes will start falling
Then that fucking meteor. Will finally finish us off

Kind of makes the personal finance and 2023 recession thread a moot point.......

 

[kurtis500]

Okay Vladimir.

Why is your IQ 75?

 

[RVR SWPR]

It's a good time to be old.

^That is the problem^,the people that could have prevented or solved all this bullshit mess we in now are too old or dead.

 

[rrrr]

Why is your IQ 75?

My IQ is high enough to know that United States has 14 Ohio class nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines that carry 24 Trident missiles with up to 8 MIRV warheads on each missile. The warheads have yields of at least 100 kilotons, which is more than six times the yield of the Hiroshima weapon that killed around 140,000 people.

If Russia wants to start a nuclear war (and I disagree with your comments about their capabilities), the retaliatory strike will turn every major city in the country into a radioactive smoking hole.

So what would be the point of your assertion?

 

[Paradox]

Well… back to the topic at hand.

Our So. Cal. house goes live tomorrow. Open house both Saturday and Sunday. Took us 4 weeks to get it together, just too much stuff.

Guess we will see how it goes.

 

[rivrrts429]

Just enjoy life and watch your spending

Brass will be the new cash

 

[Gonefishin5555]

Well… back to the topic at hand.

Our So. Cal. house goes live tomorrow. Open house both Saturday and Sunday. Took us 4 weeks to get it together, just too much stuff.

Guess we will see how it goes.

Tells us how much traffic you get this weekend. My friend is rushing to list his place this week or next.

 

[monkeyswrench]

My IQ is high enough to know that United States has 14 Ohio class nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines that carry 24 Trident missiles with up to 8 MIRV warheads on each missile. The warheads have yields of at least 100 kilotons, which is more than six times the yield of the Hiroshima weapon that killed around 140,000 people.

If Russia wants to start a nuclear war (and I disagree with your comments about their capabilities), the retaliatory strike will turn every major city in the country into a radioactive smoking hole.

So what would be the point of your assertion?

My IQ is probably not much higher than my shoe size. I do have a fairly decent understanding of the destructive power of a nuclear warhead though. The concept of the threat of a nuclear response stopping a nuclear attack only really works if the leader actually cares for his citizens, or has a grasp on reality. I don't feel as though either party involved cares a bit about human life. Our own leader is lost, I haven't a clue about Vlad's mental acuity.

As for their nuclear ability, why should we test it? Why risk the lives of millions for a country like Ukraine? Even if their technology is lacking, and horribly inaccurate, there are still major risks to be taken. The way I think of it, even if someone has horrible aim, it only takes one pellet from 00 buck to really ruin your day. Those sailors on the subs may be the only safe Americans.

 

[rrrr]

My neighbor two doors away put up his 4 BR 2 B 2,300 SF for sale ten days ago. The listing price was $520,000, which surprised me, because everything on my street until six months ago was in the mid $400s.

The house sold in four days for $550,000. Comparing his house to mine, I'm thinking it would bring $575,000. Crazy.

I read today DFW home prices increased 28.8% from last March to this March.

 

[Paradox]

Tells us how much traffic you get this weekend. My friend is rushing to list his place this week or next.

We are pretty happy with the Broker (we’ve known her a long time), she sells a ton of houses and she is extremely detail oriented. The current thought is that we may see multiple offers over list even in light of the recent market changes.

Although it’s a track home, it is a decent sized 3 bedroom / 3 bath house (2840 sf) on a decent sized lot, has a 750 sf improved garage, is in a good (gated) Santa Clarita neighborhood and, the local public schools are decent. I’m cautiously optimistic..

I’ll post again when (or if) something solid solidifies. We are not completely married to selling. If necessary, we can weather another cycle.

 

[RiverDave]

I suppose now would be a good time to say that TRDP has expanded and we have three agents in Southern California!

They service Orange County and Inland empire and have been doing great!

Call 855-737-9328! For SOCAL. Or 928-225-3375 for AZ

RD

 

[Paradox]

I suppose now would be a good time to say that TRDP has expanded and we have three agents in Southern California!

They service Orange County and Inland empire and have been doing great!

Call 855-737-9328! For SOCAL. Or 928-225-3375 for AZ

RD

I knew that Dave and, if I didn’t go a long way back with Charity (who is helping us with the So Cal place), no question, I would have reached out for a discussion.

You guys (via Stacy) certainly did us right on the Havasu place.

 

[RiverDave]

I knew that Dave and, if I didn’t go a long way back with Charity (who is helping us with the So Cal place), no question, I would have reached out for a discussion.

You guys (via Stacy) certainly did us right on the Havasu place.

I was saying for everyone else.. lol

We also have Arlene up in bullhead now!

 

[WTR&PWR]

I think we all agree 2008 vs 2022 are apples and oranges. So why do so many of you think that what would’ve worked out great in 2008 will work out great in 2022?

If it was that simple to sell it all now put a bunch of cash away and buy twice as much for your money in a couple years then isnt everyone else doing the same thing?

I like to hear all the different opinions but I don’t see anyone factoring in how inflation will offset most of this. Housing will soften but when you have 10% inflation and houses stay the same price, they have technically gone down in price.

The difference is this time as interest rates go up properties will stay stable and banks will make their money every time interest rates tick up. They are not setting themselves up to foreclose on houses again.

Here’s the question if you believe in selling everything now because the stock market and housing market are going to crash- where are you going to park your money While inflation soars? Every month you sit on cash it loses value with hyperinflation. The easy answer is gold and silver but that’s a whole other thread.

Rant over.

 

[c_land]

Saw a post elsewhere that sums up the last 2 years pretty well:



‘In the middle of a global pandemic, governments lowered interest rates to near or below zero in real terms. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each rose 100% off their initial lows in a two year period. Many lower wage workers earned more from generous government stimulus packages than their prior wage. At one point in the pandemic auto, student, and loan payments were paused for those in need while restrictions were placed on evictions. An electric car company was valued at more than all other automakers combined despite EVs making up under 2% of all cars in the US. Home prices doubled and tripled in ‘desirable’ neighborhoods despite the US population remaining flat. The trend was attributed to a younger generation becoming first time homebuyers, despite the fact that over 60% of them owned homes prior to the pandemic. Mortgage debt, credit, and margin debt in the stock market all went to historical highs while US debt to GDP increased to over 120%. Alternative assets like cryptocurrencies swelled in value despite constituting a negligible portion of transactions. NFTs, a digital record anything, sold for millions of dollars.

By April of 2022: Core CPI was at 8.5%. 30YR fixed Mortgage rates had increased 80% in 6 months. Buying a home for 40-50% of gross income became the norm. Consumer credit reached all time highs against a Nasdaq that had lost 20% since December of 2021. Many share prices of profit-less ‘growth’ companies had collapsed over 75% since the summer of 2021, but optimism remained that a concentrated group of tech companies were immune to inflationary pressures as the world braced itself for the opportunities in Web 3.0. Real wages were declining as cost of living could not keep pace with inflation. Corporate revenues were rising on price increases as volumes shipped fell. New forms of hidden leverage were emerging in the system.’

Now ask 10-year-from-now self: What happened next?

 

[WTR&PWR]

I got to believe if there is a change in any specific market it’s the luxuries- motorhomes boats and pools. Most people pulling money out the last few years have been able to do so at 3% and make little to no monthly payment change. When people look to pull money out and go from 3% to 5 or 6% they will have to rethink that idea.

 

[NicPaus]

My neighbor two doors away put up his 4 BR 2 B 2,300 SF for sale ten days ago. The listing price was $520,000, which surprised me, because everything on my street until six months ago was in the mid $400s.

The house sold in four days for $550,000. Comparing his house to mine, I'm thinking it would bring $575,000. Crazy.

I read today DFW home prices increased 28.8% from last March to this March.

My Realtor is on way to Texas now to do final walk thru for her Son's new house. Basic starter home $425K. I asked what happened to the 200k houses in Texas. Not happening.

 

[RiverDave]

Saw a post elsewhere that sums up the last 2 years pretty well:



‘In the middle of a global pandemic, governments lowered interest rates to near or below zero in real terms. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each rose 100% off their initial lows in a two year period. Many lower wage workers earned more from generous government stimulus packages than their prior wage. At one point in the pandemic auto, student, and loan payments were paused for those in need while restrictions were placed on evictions. An electric car company was valued at more than all other automakers combined despite EVs making up under 2% of all cars in the US. Home prices doubled and tripled in ‘desirable’ neighborhoods despite the US population remaining flat. The trend was attributed to a younger generation becoming first time homebuyers, despite the fact that over 60% of them owned homes prior to the pandemic. Mortgage debt, credit, and margin debt in the stock market all went to historical highs while US debt to GDP increased to over 120%. Alternative assets like cryptocurrencies swelled in value despite constituting a negligible portion of transactions. NFTs, a digital record anything, sold for millions of dollars.

By April of 2022: Core CPI was at 8.5%. 30YR fixed Mortgage rates had increased 80% in 6 months. Buying a home for 40-50% of gross income became the norm. Consumer credit reached all time highs against a Nasdaq that had lost 20% since December of 2021. Many share prices of profit-less ‘growth’ companies had collapsed over 75% since the summer of 2021, but optimism remained that a concentrated group of tech companies were immune to inflationary pressures as the world braced itself for the opportunities in Web 3.0. Real wages were declining as cost of living could not keep pace with inflation. Corporate revenues were rising on price increases as volumes shipped fell. New forms of hidden leverage were emerging in the system.’

Now ask 10-year-from-now self: What happened next?

That is enough to give you chills..

 

[rrrr]

My Realtor is on way to Texas now to do final walk thru for her Son's new house. Basic starter home $425K. I asked what happened to the 200k houses in Texas. Not happening.

It's unbelievable. In January 2021, we were contemplating selling the house to a flipper. The underslab cast iron waste plumbing was leaking in several places, and that, assisted by Texas expanding clay soil, had caused foundation problems and dozens of drywall cracks.

I had bids totaling about $60K for installing foundation piers, tunneling under the house to replace the cast iron with PVC, repairing all of the drywall, painting every room, and spray painting all of the doors and trim. That was with me acting as GC.

We had offers around $325K for the house from flippers, and at the time I thought it would sell for maybe $425K repaired. We went ahead with the work, and it was done by November 2021.

Now, five months later, based on sales on my street, I'm confident we can sell it for $550K or more. We have a pretty nice rental I completely remodeled in 2020, so we have someplace to move to. We don't care that it's a smaller house.

I think we're going to sell. That half mil will make for a much nicer retirement.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

It's unbelievable. In January 2021, we were contemplating selling the house to a flipper. The underslab cast iron waste plumbing was leaking in several places, and that, assisted by Texas expanding clay soil, had caused foundation problems and dozens of drywall cracks.

I had bids totaling about $60K for installing foundation piers, tunneling under the house to replace the cast iron with PVC, repairing all of the drywall, painting every room, and spray painting all of the doors and trim. That was with me acting as GC.

We had offers around $325K for the house from flippers, and at the time I thought it would sell for maybe $425K repaired. We went ahead with the work, and it was done by November 2021.

Now, five months later, based on sales on my street, I'm confident we can sell it for $550K or more. We have a pretty nice rental I completely remodeled in 2020, so we have someplace to move to. We don't care that it's a smaller house.

I think we're going to sell. That half mil will make for a much nicer retirement.

Take the money and run.

 

[Xtrmwakeboarder]

My Realtor is on way to Texas now to do final walk thru for her Son's new house. Basic starter home $425K. I asked what happened to the 200k houses in Texas. Not happening.

I really, really wish we moved 3 years ago with our friends. I’m guessing our house would have been several hundred k cheaper. Shoot, their house was purchased for half the price of ours and is still awesome.

 

[regor]

Recession On Deck: US GDP Shockingly Contracts In Q1 Driven By Inventory, Exports Plunge​

One more negative GDP print quarter and technical recession here we come.

THU APR 28, AT 5:46 AM


The party of shrinkage......................

 

[c_land]

Recession On Deck: US GDP Shockingly Contracts In Q1 Driven By Inventory, Exports Plunge​

One more negative GDP print quarter and technical recession here we come.

THU APR 28, AT 5:46 AM


The party of shrinkage......................

Took about a year for the Democrats to put us in negative growth territory. #bidenboom

The experts here told us recession was impossible in January.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

I think we all agree 2008 vs 2022 are apples and oranges. So why do so many of you think that what would’ve worked out great in 2008 will work out great in 2022?

If it was that simple to sell it all now put a bunch of cash away and buy twice as much for your money in a couple years then isnt everyone else doing the same thing?

I like to hear all the different opinions but I don’t see anyone factoring in how inflation will offset most of this. Housing will soften but when you have 10% inflation and houses stay the same price, they have technically gone down in price.

The difference is this time as interest rates go up properties will stay stable and banks will make their money every time interest rates tick up. They are not setting themselves up to foreclose on houses again.

Here’s the question if you believe in selling everything now because the stock market and housing market are going to crash- where are you going to park your money While inflation soars? Every month you sit on cash it loses value with hyperinflation. The easy answer is gold and silver but that’s a whole other thread.

Rant over.

Great questions,
I don't think we can buy twice as much for half the price, but for most of my life I have lived in RE markets with volatility (SoCa) and I have seen this movie and its sequels. I'm gambling this time it is the same storyline. Inflation is historically followed by recession, and in my ignorant view, it looks like we are headed sooner than later to volatility in the bond market, the equities markets, and the real estate markets.

I believe the housing inventory numbers will remain tight but should free up enough to allow an opportunity for negotiations. I don't need repos to stack up like cordwood, just the FOMO hysteria to go away. Retraction in these markets lets me take a seat at the table, where the game was too rich previously. I prefer to look at this as keeping my powder dry rather than hoarding cash.

Your last question is extremely concerning for me, so I have carefully been making conservative swing trades to try and offset the inflation erosion of our cash.

This opportunity might be the last chance to accumulate some wealth and get back what we lost in 2008, so we are all in on our strategy. Retirement will be comfortable, or cat food dependent on how this plays out.

This guy is gloom and doomer, but his data offers an interesting opinion on where we might be headed.

 

[2Driver]

Don’t forget starving to death….

 

[just_floatin]

Take the money and run.

Run where? Where do you park the depreciating asset otherwise known as cash?

 

[JDKRXW]

This guy is gloom and doomer, but his data offers an interesting opinion on where we might be headed.

That is a solid presentation and he backs it up by covering all angles - except 1. Interest rates.
When he adds in the recent increases and potential scale for how high these rates might go - the story even gets worse.
I saw a related article yesterday about one of the topics he touched on - the boomer and elderly populations. They're exploding as compared to millenials who need to carry the majority of the economic load for the next or so 20 years - problem is, they're (boomers and elderly) are basically mooches. They're not overall 'contributors' (buying new houses/cars/diapers etc) and they are going to exhaust any social safety nets currently in place VERY soon.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Run where? Where do you park the depreciating asset otherwise known as cash?

He already owns the other home. The property will go down in value faster than the cash will. Inflation will be temporary as well. Inflation will retreat and asset prices will still be low.

You can’t win every day. But you can minimize your losses.

 

[2Driver]

Run where? Where do you park the depreciating asset otherwise known as cash?

Like I said, I’m laddering 3-6-9-12 month treasuries while shit shakes out. Every 3 months one is coming due to reinvest.

Why risk principal for some small return when the market is falling apart.

 

[Havasu blue label]

Ok mr water and power can you pay your bills with no overtime they will be cutting back overtime soon retirement pay is based on pay not overtime. Three of my neighbors lost there homes last time around

 

[Havasu blue label]

I would pick some stocks and buy low and enjoy the ride it will turn around quick

 

[monkeyswrench]

I would pick some stocks and buy low and enjoy the ride it will turn around quick

Define "quick"? I know it has in the past, but this is a bit different. This is not the same as the last go around, as stated by all the financial people here. Usually, there are not all the different facets at play at once. A lot of moving parts, and it's more like Wheel of Fortune than what was taught in Econ class.