For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[EmpirE231]

salesforce 10k jobs cut

mortgage demand, lowest level since 1996

Mortgage demand falls in December to the lowest level since 1996

Mortgage applications fell 13.2% in the latest week, the Mortgage Bankers Association said. The average rate for a 30-year mortgage is 6.58%

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Tamalewagon]

salesforce 10k jobs cut

mortgage demand, lowest level since 1996

Mortgage demand falls in December to the lowest level since 1996

Mortgage applications fell 13.2% in the latest week, the Mortgage Bankers Association said. The average rate for a 30-year mortgage is 6.58%

www.marketwatch.com

Those "average" 30-year fixed rates are from banks. (They should stick to checking, savings and money market accounts). Wholesale rates are quite a bit lower.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

salesforce 10k jobs cut

mortgage demand, lowest level since 1996

Mortgage demand falls in December to the lowest level since 1996

Mortgage applications fell 13.2% in the latest week, the Mortgage Bankers Association said. The average rate for a 30-year mortgage is 6.58%

www.marketwatch.com

Keep in mind they hired 20,000 people in the prior year alone.

 

[EmpirE231]

Keep in mind they hired 20,000 people in the prior year alone.

yep... hired due to high demand... but now the pendulum swings the other way. It'll be interesting to see how the rest of this year plays out with job cuts.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

yep... hired due to high demand... but now the pendulum swings the other way. It'll be interesting to see how the rest of this year plays out with job cuts.

They hired on expected demand. Many tech companies did.

There will be more. Wake me when a couple more million are cut. A year after that we might see housing bottom.

 

[shintoooo]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1610778198295322624

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1610778198295322624

Takes a lot of minimum wage workers to run those warehouses. Most of which, don't own homes. Are they renting? Living at home? I would bet A LOT are the latter........

Guess we will have to wait and see how this affects the housing market.

 

[shintoooo]

Takes a lot of minimum wage workers to run those warehouses. Most of which, don't own homes. Are they renting? Living at home? I would bet A LOT are the latter........

Guess we will have to wait and see how this affects the housing market.

I think it's a lot of temporary holiday workers.

 

[LuauLounge]

Amazon has 1,500,000 employees. Assuming everyone gets 2 weeks vaca, and my math is correct, they need 38,500 employees just covering vacation time.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I think it's a lot of temporary holiday workers.

Damn.. they only hired 200,000 people last year, and 300,000 a year before that.

This 17k person layoff puts their 1.5m+ workforce on a skeleton crew!

 

[monkeyswrench]

Well, roughly 20% of the nations workforce makes less than 15$ an hour. I know that may be hard to fathom, but it's actually much better than it was around 2010. 30k a year isn't enough to survive in many areas, and thus over the past decade we've seen multiple generations in homes, and multiple names on loans.

Sure, it may only be what are deemed as entry level jobs, but what if they are part of a home that needs their rent or income to help make the payments? I don't know how it would effect the housing market, but I'd think late rents would happen before foreclosures.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Damn.. they only hired 200,000 people last year, and 300,000 a year before that.

This 17k person layoff puts their 1.5m+ workforce on a skeleton crew!

Think about how much the demand increased for Amazon during the lockdowns!! Had to have hired tons of people.

 

[shintoooo]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1610787616181440515

 

[Gonefishin5555]

I think the layoff thing is not the real news. The $8B unsecured borrowing tells you they expect to lose a lot of money in the near future.

 

[attitude]

Well, roughly 20% of the nations workforce makes less than 15$ an hour. I know that may be hard to fathom, but it's actually much better than it was around 2010. 30k a year isn't enough to survive in many areas, and thus over the past decade we've seen multiple generations in homes, and multiple names on loans.

Sure, it may only be what are deemed as entry level jobs, but what if they are part of a home that needs their rent or income to help make the payments? I don't know how it would effect the housing market, but I'd think late rents would happen before foreclosures.

Yup, I was just talking to one of the managers at my work about how much living expenses have gone up in the last couple years and she told my if her kids didn’t live at home and pay rent she would be in a world of hurt.

 

[monkeyswrench]

Yup, I was just talking to one of the managers at my work about how much living expenses have gone up in the last couple years and she told my if her kids didn’t live at home and pay rent she would be in a world of hurt.

Everyone sees the events on the horizon through a different prism. Most here aren't "over the hill", but have made a fair climb towards the peak. You're a few steps younger than me, young family. Most my age are more towards their peak, I'm sitting atop a foothill, enjoying the views.

I'm still fit to dig ditches if need be. When it comes down to it, I wonder who will have the ability and drive to adapt? Many people have been taught that this or that is beneath them. Those people may struggle. Family bonds will be tested, as will friendships. Time will tell.

 

[angiebaby]

Takes a lot of minimum wage workers to run those warehouses. Most of which, don't own homes. Are they renting? Living at home? I would bet A LOT are the latter........

Guess we will have to wait and see how this affects the housing market.

I think it's a lot of temporary holiday workers.

From the article, "As of September, Amazon employed 1.5 million people, with a large percentage of them in its warehouses. The layoffs are concentrated in the company’s corporate ranks."

 

[Havasu blue label]

Those "average" 30-year fixed rates are from banks. (They should stick to checking, savings and money market accounts). Wholesale rates are quite a bit lower.

Yes sir and they cost more

 

[monkeyswrench]

From the article, "As of September, Amazon employed 1.5 million people, with a large percentage of them in its warehouses. The layoffs are concentrated in the company’s corporate ranks."

I believe there was an inmate that posted in this thread about the layoffs before Christmas some time. They seemed legitimately worried, and I'm sure they aren't a warehouse type...and that's one of our own

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Takes a lot of minimum wage workers to run those warehouses. Most of which, don't own homes. Are they renting? Living at home? I would bet A LOT are the latter........

Guess we will have to wait and see how this affects the housing market.

Some are nomadic and spend winter near Lake Havasu on BLM land after the holiday rush waiting for their seasonal jobs to restart in the north.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Here is your Modern Day housing crisis.......

Can't make this shit up.

My wife and I live ‘an average life’ in the Bay Area making $320K. Last year, we bought a house for $200K over asking — now we don’t want to live in it. Should we get professional help?

Have an issue with your financial adviser or looking for a new one? Email [email protected].

www.marketwatch.com

 

[CarolynandBob]

Well, roughly 20% of the nations workforce makes less than 15$ an hour. I know that may be hard to fathom, but it's actually much better than it was around 2010. 30k a year isn't enough to survive in many areas, and thus over the past decade we've seen multiple generations in homes, and multiple names on loans.

Sure, it may only be what are deemed as entry level jobs, but what if they are part of a home that needs their rent or income to help make the payments? I don't know how it would effect the housing market, but I'd think late rents would happen before foreclosures.

I was shocked when I found out what a cop earns in the county of my TN house. $18 an hour/ 36K. Just amazing to do that job for that low. I think correction officers were $14.

 

[monkeyswrench]

I was shocked when I found out what a cop earns in the county of my TN house. $18 an hour/ 36K. Just amazing to do that job for that low. I think correction officers were $14.

A few months back that was a topic for conversation around my house. Inlaw laughed, and bragged about how he was able to crack 100k his first year in LE. I was talking to him about my neighbor, pretty high up in local sheriff's, just breaching that.

Both are willing to risk their lives. As a whole though, can't pick out one here by just talking to them...different breed for sure. Also, out here at least, all are in better shape than me. Not the case in big cities

 

[angiebaby]

Here is your Modern Day housing crisis.......

Can't make this shit up.

My wife and I live ‘an average life’ in the Bay Area making $320K. Last year, we bought a house for $200K over asking — now we don’t want to live in it. Should we get professional help?

Have an issue with your financial adviser or looking for a new one? Email [email protected].

www.marketwatch.com

I love that the article acts like they have the option to sell it and make money "What would you do with the money if it sold?" Even though they bought it at the very top of the market, for $200K over asking, and the bay area is already seeing a significant drop in housing prices.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Job growth way higher than expected by markets in December.

Private payroll growth surged by 235,000 in December, well above estimate, ADP reports

Private payrolls rose by 235,000 for the month, well ahead of the 153,000 Dow Jones estimate.

www.cnbc.com

The end is near.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

Initial claims dropped and there are 10M job opening. Somehow this is bad news. Oh and bomb cyclone

 

[bonesfab]

Job growth way higher than expected by markets in December.

Private payroll growth surged by 235,000 in December, well above estimate, ADP reports

Private payrolls rose by 235,000 for the month, well ahead of the 153,000 Dow Jones estimate.

www.cnbc.com

The end is near.

And you are believing the corporate news media?? Is that where you get the latest speed updates too??

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

And you are believing the corporate news media?? Is that where you get the latest speed updates too??

No I believe what I see with my eyes. The markets are still estimating job growth, and they underestimated it by 80k. The employment number is surely wrong but it is not inverted. If you are rooting for economic failure you need to have a years worth of -200k+ jobs per month.

Rates have been on the rise for a year. Mortgages are stalled, RE prices have only fallen marginally and we have an economy that is net gaining jobs. A RE collapse that does not make.

It does make for a buying opportunity at some point though.

I get my latest Speed updates from Dave .

 

[beaverretriever]

Here is your Modern Day housing crisis.......

Can't make this shit up.

My wife and I live ‘an average life’ in the Bay Area making $320K. Last year, we bought a house for $200K over asking — now we don’t want to live in it. Should we get professional help?

Have an issue with your financial adviser or looking for a new one? Email [email protected].

www.marketwatch.com

A lot of funny things in that story. First off if you are making 320k combined in Frisco, you're poor, literally!(Unfortunately 320k a year for a family anywhere in the West isn't what it used to be). Only getting 3250 for rent? Must be a complete shithole they bought. My buddy who has two homes in the bay area is getting about 10k a month for one which is not really much to look at and 5800 for another shitbox closer to San Jose.

But after all said and done, they are having someone else pay their mortgage on a pricey home for only 1200 a month out of their pocket? They need to buck up and just eat that 1200 a month and ride it out.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

No I believe what I see with my eyes. The markets are still estimating job growth, and they underestimated it by 100k. The employment number is surely wrong but it is not inverted. If you are rooting for economic failure you need to have a years worth of -200k+ jobs per month.

Those job numbers seem suspect to me, but I'm pessimistic. Leisure and Hospitality? Low-paying part-time jobs don't drive the economy. There is a reason you can't get service workers.

Let's pause for a moment and be honest about what we see with our own eyes. Not what the media tells us. We all agree that the "News" is no longer a reputable source of information.

I see a demand for low-skill workers and a demographic that has been coddled and believes those jobs are beneath them. It appears they can survive without doing that work. Unless by Leisure and Hospitality, they mean OnlyFans in that case, those bitches are driving more than the economy.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Those job numbers seem suspect to me, but I'm pessimistic. Leisure and Hospitality? Low-paying part-time jobs don't drive the economy. There is a reason you can't get service workers.

Let's pause for a moment and be honest about what we see with our own eyes. Not what the media tells us. We all agree that the "News" is no longer a reputable source of information.

I see a demand for low-skill workers and a demographic that has been coddled and believes those jobs are beneath them. It appears they can survive without doing that work. Unless by Leisure and Hospitality, they mean OnlyFans in that case, those bitches are driving more than the economy.

If that is the case, then we can’t be on both sides of the fence.. either these low paying jobs help keep the RE market afloat or they don’t.

If the argument is several low paid workers are renting a house, then it is probably unlikely that enough of them will lose work and be unable to pay rent causing the landlord to be forced to sell. Those people are certainly not buying houses.

And we aren’t gaining so many low paying jobs but some how losing massive amounts of high paying jobs.

I don’t claim the number to be accurate either, but when you have markets missing the estimate by 80k.. that is significant and even if revised, likely won’t drop below the market estimate.

 

[bonesfab]

If that is the case, then we can’t be on both sides of the fence.. either these low paying jobs help keep the RE market afloat or they don’t.

If the argument is several low paid workers are renting a house, then it is probably unlikely that enough of them will lose work and be unable to pay rent causing the landlord to be forced to sell. Those people are certainly not buying houses.

And we aren’t gaining so many low paying jobs but some how losing massive amounts of high paying jobs.

I don’t claim the number to be accurate either, but when you have markets missing the estimate by 80k.. that is significant and even if revised, likely won’t drop below the market estimate.

How many low paying job people can you pack in a house in order to make the house payment??

 

[El Rojo]

How many low paying job people can you pack in a house in order to make the house payment??

Answer: as many as it takes lol…

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

How many low paying job people can you pack in a house in order to make the house payment??

There were 10-12 across the street from me in So Cal. 4 bed 2000 sq foot house.

 

[Boatymcboatface]

One thing I’ve noticed lately is a lot more Target/Vons people shopping at Winco/Walmart than before. The Albertsons by my house is almost always empty but the Winco 5miles away is always packed! The looks on some of these peoples faces is priceless like how dare they have to shop here!

 

[PaPaG]

There were 10-12 across the street from me in So Cal. 4 bed 2000 sq foot house.

Just curious, did they kick you out of the Speed Car thread? was surprised I did not see you post there lately.

 

[NicPaus]

There were 10-12 across the street from me in So Cal. 4 bed 2000 sq foot house.

Similar next door to our property we are getting ready to build on. Rent is $4500 a month.

Plan was build 3 homes. Small lot subdivision and sell separately like we have done previously on same block. Plan changed to add on to existing house and add attached ADU. Build 2 more ADUs connected 1200 sq ft each. And build another house in back. So 5 units. Rent all 5 and sell the property.

Subdivision requires widening the street and moving power pole. And takes 18 months to do the lot split.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Similar next door to our property we are getting ready to build on. Rent is $4500 a month.

Plan was build 3 homes. Small lot subdivision and sell separately like we have done previously on same block. Plan changed to add on to existing house and add attached ADU. Build 2 more ADUs connected 1200 sq ft each. And build another house in back. So 5 units. Rent all 5 and sell the property.

Subdivision requires widening the street and moving power pole. And takes 18 months to do the lot split.

They are turning my old house into a halfway house with a giant ugly ADU. The community is up in arms over it.

 

[RiverDave]

Here is your Modern Day housing crisis.......

Can't make this shit up.

My wife and I live ‘an average life’ in the Bay Area making $320K. Last year, we bought a house for $200K over asking — now we don’t want to live in it. Should we get professional help?

Have an issue with your financial adviser or looking for a new one? Email [email protected].

www.marketwatch.com

That is click bait

 

[RiverDave]

Similar next door to our property we are getting ready to build on. Rent is $4500 a month.

Plan was build 3 homes. Small lot subdivision and sell separately like we have done previously on same block. Plan changed to add on to existing house and add attached ADU. Build 2 more ADUs connected 1200 sq ft each. And build another house in back. So 5 units. Rent all 5 and sell the property.

Subdivision requires widening the street and moving power pole. And takes 18 months to do the lot split.

Mehta is an ADU?

 

[EmpirE231]

most people can comfortably afford their mortgages once they add an ADU and rent out 2 other rooms lol

 

[Cole Trickle]

most people can comfortably afford their mortgages once they add an ADU and rent out 2 other rooms lol

Especially when you make 320k a year...haha

 

[TCHB]

I think there is a high percentage of people living on the edge. Toys are all financed along with the new cars. One little problem and the house is crashing down.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Especially when you make 320k a year...haha

And must have had $200k to purchase a house for $200k over asking… while keeping their condo they bought in 2016.

 

[NicPaus]

most people can comfortably afford their mortgages once they add an ADU and rent out 2 other rooms lol

My ADU is currently storage. Once my garage is built. I can easily get $1200 a month to my Nephew or Friend. More like $1800 going rate. Making my part of my Mortgage payment $950.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

My ADU is currently storage. Once my garage is built. I can easily get $1200 a month to my Nephew or Friend. More like $1800 going rate. Making my part of my Mortgage payment $950.

Yore overlevered and will lose it all.

 

[NicPaus]

Mehta is an ADU?

Aren't you the real estate guru!

Additional Dwelling Unit.

CA has approved them to be added to any property. Our property is a R2 so 2 houses can be built. And 2 ADU. If 1 is attached it is considered a junior ADU. You can have a junior and ADU on some properties depending on setbacks.

 

[c_land]

Aren't you the real estate guru!

Additional Dwelling Unit.

CA has approved them to be added to any property. Our property is a R2 so 2 houses can be built. And 2 ADU. If 1 is attached it is considered a junior ADU. You can have a junior and ADU on some properties depending on setbacks.

Parking is going to be so bitchin after those things go up all over beach communities lol

 

[NicPaus]

I think there is a high percentage of people living on the edge. Toys are all financed along with the new cars. One little problem and the house is crashing down.

Thanks to you Guys I paid off all 5 of my vehicles. Wrote a check for my Can Am. Toys are paid for. All these posts in this thread have me working my ass off.

My house would be less than I paid 11 months ago. But I have done a lot of work to it myself already.

 

[NicPaus]

Parking is going to be so bitchin after those things go up all over beach communities lol

It has been a nightmare on that block for last 5 years. When I moved in 10 years ago. Street was wide open. There is a few going up with 4 units and no garages. 2 houses 2 ADUs. The previous ones I built had to have 2 car garages and 1 additional off street parking spot. That property I added 5 parking spots while I lived there.