For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[monkeyswrench]

Five to feed. . Thats gotta be 3-4+ a month in groceries?

It's averaged an additional 100-150$ a week increase from a year ago. In reality, groceries probably account for 12-1600$ a month. Really not too bad, considering 3 of us eat 3 meals a day from home. Daughter is hit or miss, and middle son eats school lunch (and anything that isn't nailed down after school and on weekends)

The jump in cost may not seem like much to some. Even for us, it's not too bad. Younger families though, this is huge. For a person making 15$ an hour, they are working 3 weeks a month for food. True, someone shouldn't have a household of 5 on 15 bucks. In some areas though, one parent may make good money, and the other not. When you figure in rent, fuel and other things, we see how you end up with multiple incomes being needed for running a household.

 

[Havasu blue label]

We were NEVER TOLD prices will come down 30-40% in the original post, there you go again making up things to support your views. Great prices are coming, once evaluated I gave it 6-18 months and another 2 years of downturns which would put us up to the end of 2023 and mid 2024 for some great prices, I even made adjustments in the timeline if needed and said the market will adjust to the feds continual increases down the road as is fact.
Here is the copy of the original post which you seem to misquote all the time again to support your view.

My Original Post: JP Morgan Chase just announced a layoff of at least 1000 people and more to come due to the drastic drop in both housing purchases credited to CRAZY HOUSING MARKET slowing correcting and the doubling of interest rates..Redfin, Realtor.com did the same...YOU'VE seen Nothing YET.......if you planned on selling I hope you got it done or soon...if not expect some changes very soon. On the other hand, if you are a potential cash buyer TONS of great opportunities around the corner and from what I am guessing another 2 years of downturn and great prices to start very soon....

Actually I stated 50 percent drop on certain properties havasu is about 25 percent

 

[petie6464]

It's averaged an additional 100-150$ a week increase from a year ago. In reality, groceries probably account for 12-1600$ a month. Really not too bad, considering 3 of us eat 3 meals a day from home. Daughter is hit or miss, and middle son eats school lunch (and anything that isn't nailed down after school and on weekends)

The jump in cost may not seem like much to some. Even for us, it's not too bad. Younger families though, this is huge. For a person making 15$ an hour, they are working 3 weeks a month for food. True, someone shouldn't have a household of 5 on 15 bucks. In some areas though, one parent may make good money, and the other not. When you figure in rent, fuel and other things, we see how you end up with multiple incomes being needed for running a household.

That not to terrible then. For me family of three it's $1,700 for groceries. Not that we eat anything out of the ordinary and don't drink it seems like a lot. No wonder the wife is packing on some pounds!

I see that tenant applications with multiple generations applying like never before. They just can't pay the rent themselves. Sad situation and the swing with all these cigarette box housing tells the story.

 

[monkeyswrench]

That not to terrible then. For me family of three it's $1,700 for groceries. Not that we eat anything out of the ordinary and don't drink it seems like a lot. No wonder the wife is packing on some pounds!

I see that tenant applications with multiple generations applying like never before. They just can't pay the rent themselves. Sad situation and the swing with all these cigarette box housing tells the story.

A lot has changed in our diets as we've been battling some issues. Nothing from a box, which is good and bad. We also eat very little red meat...which saves a bunch. Meals in kit form aren't too bad, because we can buy in bulk, and can cycle through it with the 5 of us. The bad thing, it takes time. If I had a real job, and my wife worked late, we wouldn't eat dinner until 8 or 9.

 

[EmpirE231]

Here's a place that's already given up all of its "COVID gains"

Listed 05/11/21 for 779k
sold 06/15/21 over asking for 835K

listed 10/09/22 (listing price blocked out)
5 price drops since then
currently listed @ 840K

Still seeing a lot of places sit on the market, with multiple price decreases. Seems like the covid gains are quickly disappearing / if not already gone in some areas

16275 Constable Rd, Riverside, CA 92504 - 3 beds/2.5 baths

(CRMLS) Sold: 3 beds, 2.5 baths, 2797 sq. ft. house located at 16275 Constable Rd, Riverside, CA 92504 sold for $840,000 on Mar 3, 2023. MLS# AR23002196. Six car garages! Two oversized 3 car garages acces...

www.redfin.com

 

[Boatymcboatface]

I’ve been tracking a few houses in a couple different areas and two of them are now listed at the same price they sold for a year ago. I’m guessing these will end up being foreclosed or sold at a loss. If someone put a large chunk down then it might just be a costly learning lesson if it sells for a 10k to 20k loss. But someone is going to possibly left with a larger mortgage on their primary residence if that’s the funds they used to purchase the second home during Covid frenzy.

 

[hallett21]

What’s everyone’s thoughts on KB Homes earnings this week?

Stock ticker KBH

 

[c_land]

What’s everyone’s thoughts on KB Homes earnings this week?

Stock ticker KBH

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1572683652869378054

Some Q3 stats. Their FY ends 11/30. Q4 captured some of the worst of mortgage rates for KB.

That cancellation rate….

 

[hallett21]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1572683652869378054

Some Q3 stats. Their FY ends 11/30. Q4 captured some of the worst of mortgage rates for KB.

That cancellation rate….

I’m thinking the same.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

I'm surprised they are still making any profit at all. Also I think the cancellation rate thing isn't that big a deal. Even if I wanted the house I would cancel as a negotiating tactic cause they would surely come back with a significant discount. The number I am looking for is charge-offs resulting from projects now projected to be unprofitable. They have to book loss immediately and it will tell us of the pending bloodbath.

 

[zhandfull]

Hold on to your hat! $200k discount from original asking price and still on the market.

 

[hallett21]

I'm surprised they are still making any profit at all. Also I think the cancellation rate thing isn't that big a deal. Even if I wanted the house I would cancel as a negotiating tactic cause they would surely come back with a significant discount. The number I am looking for is charge-offs resulting from projects now projected to be unprofitable. They have to book loss immediately and it will tell us of the pending bloodbath.

Does the buyer not lose a deposit if they cancel?

 

[Runs2rch]

Does the buyer not lose a deposit if they cancel?

Probably varies. If you order with options you specifically want then money from the deposit would be released for them. I know a couple out here in Vegas that was screwed by Toll Brother's. When rates jumped and the house was finished they had to back out.

 

[jet496]

Probably varies. If you order with options you specifically want then money from the deposit would be released for them. I know a couple out here in Vegas that was screwed by Toll Brother's. When rates jumped and the house was finished they had to back out.

Was the house price the same but just a rate jump?

 

[PaPaG]

Hold on to your hat! $200k discount from original asking price and still on the market.

View attachment 1187155

I bet they wish they sold before April 2022...

Price history​

Date	Event	Price
1/8/2023	Listed for sale	$424,000 (-13.5%) $202/sqft
Source: Lake Havasu Association MLS #1024258 Report a problem
9/7/2022	Listing removed	$490,000 $233/sqft
Source: Lake Havasu Association MLS #1021509 Report a problem
7/20/2022	Price change	$490,000 (-10.9%) $233/sqft
Source: Lake Havasu Association MLS #1021509 Report a problem
6/23/2022	Price change	$550,000 (-8.1%) $262/sqft
Source: Lake Havasu Association MLS #1021509 Report a problem
6/2/2022	Price change	$598,800 (-4.2%) $285/sqft
Source: Lake Havasu Association MLS #1021509 Report a problem
5/23/2022	Price change	$624,800 (0%) $297/sqft
Source: Lake Havasu Association MLS #1021509 Report a problem
5/20/2022	Listed for sale	$624,900 $297/sqft
Source: Lake Havasu Association MLS #1021509 Report a problem

 

[c_land]

Was the house price the same but just a rate jump?

The builders don't like to reduce prices because it can spook people in their backlog and lead to cancellations.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I bet they wish they sold before April 2022...

Price history​

Date	Event	Price
1/8/2023	Listed for sale	$424,000 (-13.5%) $202/sqft
Source: Lake Havasu Association MLS #1024258 Report a problem
9/7/2022	Listing removed	$490,000 $233/sqft
Source: Lake Havasu Association MLS #1021509 Report a problem
7/20/2022	Price change	$490,000 (-10.9%) $233/sqft
Source: Lake Havasu Association MLS #1021509 Report a problem
6/23/2022	Price change	$550,000 (-8.1%) $262/sqft
Source: Lake Havasu Association MLS #1021509 Report a problem
6/2/2022	Price change	$598,800 (-4.2%) $285/sqft
Source: Lake Havasu Association MLS #1021509 Report a problem
5/23/2022	Price change	$624,800 (0%) $297/sqft
Source: Lake Havasu Association MLS #1021509 Report a problem
5/20/2022	Listed for sale	$624,900 $297/sqft
Source: Lake Havasu Association MLS #1021509 Report a problem

Another house that was never worth that asking price to begin with…

The only reason the price spiked to $600k for a month is because they listed an older home with no modern upgrades for sale at $200k over what it was worth

 

[PaPaG]

Another house that was never worth that asking price to begin with…

The only reason the price spiked to $600k for a month is because they listed an older home with no modern upgrades for sale at $200k over what it was worth


View attachment 1187185

Yup I was expecting that kind of comment, never worth that while others were selling easily just in prior months lol. The fact is other houses SOLD for the high dollars during the peak with long lines of buyers and bidding wars, too late to the selling market lost this owner a possible 200k loss from what he could have possibly sold it back at the peak before the start of the crash.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Yup I was expecting that kind of comment, never worth that while others were selling easily just in prior months lol. The fact is other houses SOLD for the high dollars during the peak with long lines of buyers and bidding wars, too late to the selling market lost this owner a possible 200k loss from what he could have possibly sold it back at the peak before the start of the crash.

The FACTS are - the peak was not in mid 2022. And not that house.

 

[hallett21]

Yup I was expecting that kind of comment, never worth that while others were selling easily just in prior months lol. The fact is other houses SOLD for the high dollars during the peak with long lines of buyers and bidding wars, too late to the selling market lost this owner a possible 200k loss from what he could have possibly sold it back at the peak before the start of the crash.

What about the possibility that people knew they were over paying? But because they were now using their boat and off road vehicles almost every weekend, they were willing to take the “loss”.

A lot of families have quit taking trips to Hawaii, cruises etc.

I don’t agree with overpaying but if a family spends 10-15k a year on vacations normally. I can see them saying screw it and putting that money to a vacation house. Even if they overpaid.

Either way the above house in my opinion was never “worth” 600k. I’m not arguing that people paid that or more though.

 

[PaPaG]

What about the possibility that people knew they were over paying? But because they were now using their boat and off road vehicles almost every weekend, they were willing to take the “loss”.

A lot of families have quit taking trips to Hawaii, cruises etc.

I don’t agree with overpaying but if a family spends 10-15k a year on vacations normally. I can see them saying screw it and putting that money to a vacation house. Even if they overpaid.

Either way the above house in my opinion was never “worth” 600k. I’m not arguing that people paid that or more though.

I agree, money was easy to get and spend and a crap load of people overspent not looking into the future or not caring which is up to each person to decide. In my opinion very few houses that were selling for the ridiculous prices with all the bidding wars all over the country were not worth what they were asking especially when they recently went up some as high as 50-100% in a few years. My basic point has and always will be people should be aware and if they wanted to sell sell at or near the peaks and hot market, that time is OVER now and we are and going to be in the adjustment phase, correction or crash time will tell. As the Fed decides to increase this year time will tell the true results hopefully by the end of 2023 maybe mid 2024 before things hopefully stabilize and we don't end up in a big crash vs a correction. Again just my opinion.

 

[Havasu blue label]

The FACTS are - the peak was not in mid 2022. And not that house.

Funny guy

 

[angiebaby]

The FACTS are - the peak was not in mid 2022. And not that house.

?? Everything I've read states the peak was May-June of '22. And what do you mean not that house? A 3/2 2000 sq ft seems like a pretty average home to me.

"Average U.S. house prices peaked in June on this measure and are already down about 4% since then. They are expected to drop 12% in total, according to the median forecast, with estimates ranging as high as 30%." https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-house-prices-fall-12-peak-trough-analysts-2022-12-02/

"Morgan Stanley, the investment management firm, predicted home prices will fall 7 percent, from the peak of pricing in June 2022" https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/04/realestate/housing-market-interest-rates.html


"The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index has so far declined 2.2% from the peak in home prices which was roughly over the summer of 2022." https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562564-where-us-housing-crash-will-hit-hardest

"The typical U.S. home sold for roughly $352,000 during the four weeks ending December 18, down 10% from a peak of $391,000 in June and up just 1% year over year. " https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-demand-uptick-sales-decline/


So, please tell us, when was the peak, so that we can properly educate those at Case-Shiller and Redfin?

 

[gqchris]

Whenever I am feeling like the sky is falling i spin up this video and I realize that I really have not one fucking thing to complain about.

 

[Orange Juice]

Let's be real. Continued growth in the jobs market is sending a signal to the Fed that inflation is not decreasing. They released the minutes of their most recent meeting this week. It states that the .5% increase made in the last decision cycle was inadequate, and that larger and repeated increases will be made in 2023.

The payrolls number that the Department of Labor releases this week will be part of the Feds' reaction to market conditions, so your smug dismissal of the ADP numbers ignores the reality that increases will result in even higher interest rates, and that is eventually going to trigger the recession that just about everyone from the CEO of ChaseJPM to the barber at your local strip mall has predicted.

I don’t know anyone who is looking for a job…..a few are looking for better jobs.

I see only a few new cars in my neighborhood. All are electric small electric cars, except my 2022 Dodge Charger, and I opted for the V6 model GT.

Nothing has sold in my neighborhood, in 6 months. Same 5 houses for sale. 2 are same price as 6 months ago, and rent for $7500 a month or $2500 a week.

The other 3 need a lot of work, and either have no pool, or an original 40 yr old roof that’s been obviously patched a few times, but never replaced. Those prices have dropped 20% and still on the market. ( NE Phoenix).

I’ve got my eye on one, for rental property, I might make an offer late spring/summer, after Super Bowl and MLB spring training.

Water rights have become a problem in the Phoenix area, so to build further out, is no longer an option.

This just happened to Rio Verde in North Scottsdale. They have to truck in water from Apache Junction.

People living in Rio Verde Foothills will lose access to Scottsdale water in 15 days

The City of Scottsdale announced in 2021 that Rio Verde Foothills residents would not be able to use the city's water.

www.12news.com

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

?? Everything I've read states the peak was May-June of '22. And what do you mean not that house? A 3/2 2000 sq ft seems like a pretty average home to me.

"Average U.S. house prices peaked in June on this measure and are already down about 4% since then. They are expected to drop 12% in total, according to the median forecast, with estimates ranging as high as 30%." https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-house-prices-fall-12-peak-trough-analysts-2022-12-02/

"Morgan Stanley, the investment management firm, predicted home prices will fall 7 percent, from the peak of pricing in June 2022" https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/04/realestate/housing-market-interest-rates.html


"The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index has so far declined 2.2% from the peak in home prices which was roughly over the summer of 2022." https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562564-where-us-housing-crash-will-hit-hardest

"The typical U.S. home sold for roughly $352,000 during the four weeks ending December 18, down 10% from a peak of $391,000 in June and up just 1% year over year. " https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-demand-uptick-sales-decline/


So, please tell us, when was the peak, so that we can properly educate those at Case-Shiller and Redfin?

If that was an average home at an average price for what it was at the peak of the market, it would have sold, would it have not?

Is your stance the prices for a 3/2 regular garage home in Havasu went up 200k and back down 200k all in the 12 months of 2022? You are quoting articles saying we have suffered single digit % price reductions from the peaks to date. If you believe the house is an average 3/2 and you believe your cited references, you just disproved your point, and proved mine. That house was never worth the asking price, and that is why it didn’t sell.

The issue in Havasu is home age and how the city was built out. A newer house is worth more than an older house, all things being equal. You can have 4 identical houses, one from 1994, one from 2004, one from 2014, and one from 2020. And let’s say each had little to no modernization. If they all were identical, same view, same street, same condition, force rank the 4 houses.

Would you buy the lowest one on your list for the same price as the nearly new house? No you would not. No one would.

That is why that house was over priced. Look at the pictures. There is no compelling reason to choose that lot. You could have got a newer house with newer finishes for the “average” price of that “average” place.

I’m not talking shit about the house, it looks fine. It is just not worth the same as a more modern place as it sits and where it sits.

 

[Havasu blue label]

If that was an average home at an average price for what it was at the peak of the market, it would have sold, would it have not?

Is your stance the prices for a 3/2 regular garage homes in Havasu went up 200k and back down 200k all in the 12 months of 2022? You are quoting articles saying we have suffered single digit % price reductions from the peaks to date. If you believe the house is an average 3/2 and you believe your cited references, you just disproved your point, and proved mine. That house was never worth the asking price, and that is why it didn’t sell.

The issue in Havasu is home age and how the city was built out. A newer house is worth more than an older house, all things being equal. You can have 4 identical houses, one from 1994, one from 2004, one from 2014, and one from 2020. And let’s say each had little to no modernization. If they all were identical, same view, same street, same condition, force rank the 4 houses.

Would you buy the lowest one on your list for the same price as the nearly new house? No you would not. No one would.

That is why that house was over priced. Look at the pictures. There is no compelling reason to choose that lot. You could have got a newer house with newer finishes for the “average” price of that “average” place.

I’m not talking shit about the house, it looks fine. It is just not worth the same as a more modern place as it sits and where it sits.

location is what counts 10 foot ceilings needs some up grades but definitely a great lake house

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

location is what counts 10 foot ceilings needs some up grades but definitely a great lake house

Any house at the lake is better than not having a house at the lake.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Is this thread specific for Lake Havasu, or are we talking about real estate in general?

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Is this thread specific for Lake Havasu, or are we talking about real estate in general?

Yes.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Yes.

This response is a summary of every LOF argument ever. We all should make a note

Right on both accounts. Bajajajaja.

 

[angiebaby]

If that was an average home at an average price for what it was at the peak of the market, it would have sold, would it have not?

Is your stance the prices for a 3/2 regular garage home in Havasu went up 200k and back down 200k all in the 12 months of 2022? You are quoting articles saying we have suffered single digit % price reductions from the peaks to date. If you believe the house is an average 3/2 and you believe your cited references, you just disproved your point, and proved mine. That house was never worth the asking price, and that is why it didn’t sell.

The issue in Havasu is home age and how the city was built out. A newer house is worth more than an older house, all things being equal. You can have 4 identical houses, one from 1994, one from 2004, one from 2014, and one from 2020. And let’s say each had little to no modernization. If they all were identical, same view, same street, same condition, force rank the 4 houses.

Would you buy the lowest one on your list for the same price as the nearly new house? No you would not. No one would.

That is why that house was over priced. Look at the pictures. There is no compelling reason to choose that lot. You could have got a newer house with newer finishes for the “average” price of that “average” place.

I’m not talking shit about the house, it looks fine. It is just not worth the same as a more modern place as it sits and where it sits.

Once again, you dance around the point of my post because it proves you wrong. You said: "The FACTS are - the peak was not in mid 2022." I listed several reliable sources that prove it was. Then you post a bunch of "blah, blah, blah" nonsense that has nothing to do with the point of my post and instead focus on Havasu. I did not prove your point, and you ignored mine. The pattern is laughable, really.

 

[pronstar]

Labor doesn’t need to fire people to contract.

Given the preponderance of people making hourly wages, a contracting labor market could simply cut hours and not fire anyone.

 

[Orange Juice]

Once again, you dance around the point of my post because it proves you wrong. You said: "The FACTS are - the peak was not in mid 2022." I listed several reliable sources that prove it was. Then you post a bunch of "blah, blah, blah" nonsense that has nothing to do with the point of my post and instead focus on Havasu. I did not prove your point, and you ignored mine. The pattern is laughable, really.

I think you‘re both wrong.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Once again, you dance around the point of my post because it proves you wrong. You said: "The FACTS are - the peak was not in mid 2022." I listed several reliable sources that prove it was. Then you post a bunch of "blah, blah, blah" nonsense that has nothing to do with the point of my post and instead focus on Havasu. I did not prove your point, and you ignored mine. The pattern is laughable, really.

That makes 2 of us laughing then. Because my post was specifically related to a house in Havasu.

The peak didn’t last 2 months and go up 50% and right back down…. like I said in that post, specifically relating to a house… In Havasu.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

This response is a summary of every LOF argument ever. We all should make a note

Right on both accounts. Bajajajaja.

It’s not an argument, it’s a discussion. I’m just parroting that logic from other members

 

[Orange Juice]

It’s not an argument, it’s a discussion. I’m just parroting that logic from other members

Havasu real estate depends on Southern California‘s economy, and boat traffic.

The only reason I made the trip from Phoenix, was to participate in Copper Canyon, and later the sand bar, (late 80’s/ 90’s 2000’s, on big weekends).

Havasu needs families in So Cal to buy boats, for thsir real estate market to thrive. I think 2A also helps, along with miles of desert off roading out your garage door.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Havasu real estate depends on Southern California‘s economy, and boat traffic.

The only reason I made the trip from Phoenix, was to participate in Copper Canyon, and later the sand bar, (late 80’s/ 90’s 2000’s, on big weekends).

Havasu needs families in So Cal to buy boats, for thsir real estate market to thrive. I think 2A also helps, along with miles of desert off roading out your garage door.

I like this point, but I'm curious if this is true. I'm fascinated with city planning and tourism strategy. LHC is especially interesting because it has a four-seasonal offering.

• SoCa & Phoenix summer boating
• Winter Snowbirds
• Offroading
• 2A Favorable politics (Debatable, I guess)

Are there any other desirable factors? These seem to all carry risks associated with a healthy economy and the assumption that people will maintain current habits.

What happens when the current snowbird demographic ages out? GenX is significantly smaller in population size, and something we overlook is they are not known to be joiners. GenX does not naturally join an animal club, church, or other decade-long habits like the Boomers. I talk to Boomers at Islander who have been coming back for more than ten years. I don't see a lot of GenXers here, but it is early yet. Is the weather enough to keep me coming, or invest in a home? I'm not sure yet. Boomers are creatures of habit. GenX, not as much. I still want to check out winter in San Felipe, Florida, and maybe even Alabama or Georgia. If I'm lucky, maybe Belize. None of those seems to have the diversity of LHC, IMHO.

I don't come to LHC in the summer anymore, so I can't speak to the millennial crowds, but they see the most significant opportunity for LHC.

It does not seem like there is a lot of manufacturing opportunity here. It's not that easy to get here or ship from here. That means service jobs, retirement, or vacation homes.

I see opportunities for LHC because there is so much year-round recreation.

• Invest in high-speed internet, and market this town as a remote work paradise
• Figure out how to get Air service to Las Vegas, LA, and Phoenix.
• Aggressively market to younger people. The snowbirds' money could be drying up.

When I was a young man, LHC was the place to go. Like it or hate it, MTV Spring Break introduced a lot of kids to this place. It was on our winter shortlist because we wanted to experience memories from our younger days. 90's and 2000's for us.

I love spending Winter here, that is for sure.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I like this point, but I'm curious if this is true. I'm fascinated with city planning and tourism strategy. LHC is especially interesting because it has a four-seasonal offering.

• SoCa & Phoenix summer boating
• Winter Snowbirds
• Offroading
• 2A Favorable politics (Debatable, I guess)

Are there any other desirable factors? These seem to all carry risks associated with a healthy economy and the assumption that people will maintain current habits.

What happens when the current snowbird demographic ages out? GenX is significantly smaller in population size, and something we overlook is they are not known to be joiners. GenX does not naturally join an animal club, church, or other decade-long habits like the Boomers. I talk to Boomers at Islander who have been coming back for more than ten years. I don't see a lot of GenXers here, but it is early yet. Is the weather enough to keep me coming, or invest in a home? I'm not sure yet. Boomers are creatures of habit. GenX, not as much. I still want to check out winter in San Felipe, Florida, and maybe even Alabama or Georgia. If I'm lucky, maybe Belize. None of those seems to have the diversity of LHC, IMHO.

I don't come to LHC in the summer anymore, so I can't speak to the millennial crowds, but they see the most significant opportunity for LHC.

It does not seem like there is a lot of manufacturing opportunity here. It's not that easy to get here or ship from here. That means service jobs, retirement, or vacation homes.

I see opportunities for LHC because there is so much year-round recreation.

• Invest in high-speed internet, and market this town as a remote work paradise
• Figure out how to get Air service to Las Vegas, LA, and Phoenix.
• Aggressively market to younger people. The snowbirds' money could be drying up.

When I was a young man, LHC was the place to go. Like it or hate it, MTV Spring Break introduced a lot of kids to this place. It was on our winter shortlist because we wanted to experience memories from our younger days. 90's and 2000's for us.

I love spending Winter here, that is for sure.

Yes

 

[TCHB]

Yes

Snowbirds bought homes because it was cheap in Havasu. There is a huge population of snowbirds aging out that will sell in the next couple of years. I think the the next group will not be able to afford a vacation home that is more expensive then their primary home.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Snowbirds bought homes because it was cheap in Havasu. There is a huge population of snowbirds aging out that will sell in the next couple of years. I think the the next group will not be able to afford a vacation home that is more expensive then their primary home.

Havasu is going to be unaffordable for common people in the next 10 years. Just like every other vacation spot near the water.

 

[Havasu blue label]

Common people good one

 

[monkeyswrench]

Havasu is going to be unaffordable for common people in the next 10 years. Just like every other vacation spot near the water.

I wouldn't narrow it down to Havasu, or vacation areas. In general, housing costs are increasing. Yes, bubbles rise and burst, but it tends to always ratchet upwards. That is why real estate long term is a good investment. (even I know that ) The problem I see is the general cost for housing is increasing across the board, but the income levels are not. What used to be middle class housing now requires multiple middle class incomes. In effect, a middle class income is now lower. As society moves to decrease it's dependence on human labor, there will be less entry level jobs. I know some here don't care much about the lower levels of the economy, but they are a large part of the pyramid.

Havasu is much like my area from a demographic standpoint. Both have a large and aging population, mostly from Cali. The people who actually work here, can now hardly afford a home here. As the older population goes away, we will be dependent upon "fresh" outside money to maintain any value here. As pointed out, the younger Gen Z or even X crowd, may not be as attracted to the same things. The next 10 years from a real estate point of view is going to be very interesting in a wide variety of ways.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I wouldn't narrow it down to Havasu, or vacation areas. In general, housing costs are increasing. Yes, bubbles rise and burst, but it tends to always ratchet upwards. That is why real estate long term is a good investment. (even I know that ) The problem I see is the general cost for housing is increasing across the board, but the income levels are not. What used to be middle class housing now requires multiple middle class incomes. In effect, a middle class income is now lower. As society moves to decrease it's dependence on human labor, there will be less entry level jobs. I know some here don't care much about the lower levels of the economy, but they are a large part of the pyramid.

Havasu is much like my area from a demographic standpoint. Both have a large and aging population, mostly from Cali. The people who actually work here, can now hardly afford a home here. As the older population goes away, we will be dependent upon "fresh" outside money to maintain any value here. As pointed out, the younger Gen Z or even X crowd, may not be as attracted to the same things. The next 10 years from a real estate point of view is going to be very interesting in a wide variety of ways.

To put it simply, I don’t see a tourism collapse in Havasu (or anything below Mohave) unless the desert runs out of dirt or the lake runs out of water. The summers are getting busier, not lighter. There is more money in the town than ever. It’s going to take another decade at least for the Riviera to be built out. That rising tide raises all boats.

Niether of those are a possibility, especially with Mead and Powell running low, it will push boating tourism further south.

If the feds got involved and said no human to water contact on the Colorado, that would be a problem.

As long as there are people that like outdoor activities that want out of CA.. but just out of CA, Havasu will be ok. It is the Gen X empty nesters with money that are buying and building up there now.

 

[monkeyswrench]

To put it simply, I don’t see a tourism collapse in Havasu (or anything below Mohave) unless the desert runs out of dirt or the lake runs out of water. The summers are getting busier, not lighter. There is more money in the town than ever. It’s going to take another decade at least for the Riviera to be built out. That rising tide raises all boats.

Niether of those are a possibility, especially with Mead and Powell running low, it will push boating tourism further south.

If the feds got involved and said no human to water contact on the Colorado, that would be a problem.

As long as there are people that like outdoor activities that want out of CA.. but just out of CA, Havasu will be ok. It is the Gen X empty nesters with money that are buying and building up there now.

The current administration is a wildcard there...if there ever was a fuktard to close water and dirt, we have him! Hopefully, he does not, so let's leave that aside. Summers getting busier? Well, the past two, most definitely. This coming summer will be the first "normal" one. I'm curious to see what happens. Reports from Glamis over New Years were it wasn't as busy, so that may be a small sign. (or people stayed at home waiting for their Speed Car to be delivered) Yes, there is more money in Havasu then ever before...same thing here. You missed, or avoided, my point. That money is not "young" money. Contrary to popular belief, we all die. Roughly one third of Havasu residents are 65+, and nearly 10% are considered "disabled"...these aren't great stats. It's not just about people leaving Cali, it's also about the ability to do so. More houses are being built, and the prices are still high, but will it be a sustainable program?

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

The current administration is a wildcard there...if there ever was a fuktard to close water and dirt, we have him! Hopefully, he does not, so let's leave that aside. Summers getting busier? Well, the past two, most definitely. This coming summer will be the first "normal" one. I'm curious to see what happens. Reports from Glamis over New Years were it wasn't as busy, so that may be a small sign. (or people stayed at home waiting for their Speed Car to be delivered) Yes, there is more money in Havasu then ever before...same thing here. You missed, or avoided, my point. That money is not "young" money. Contrary to popular belief, we all die. Roughly one third of Havasu residents are 65+, and nearly 10% are considered "disabled"...these aren't great stats. It's not just about people leaving Cali, it's also about the ability to do so. More houses are being built, and the prices are still high, but will it be a sustainable program?

I didn’t miss your point, my last paragraph addressed it. Those dying/older people will be backfilled by younger people.. investors, owners or whatever. Havasu is a tourist town essentially on an island.

You want cheaper housing in Havasu? that is where it is going to come from, the older folks with the older more modest houses. I dont know the stats, but a not insignificant amount of those older people rent as well.

Last summer felt close to normal and gas was as high as its ever been… we’ll see if all the covid boats come out again or if they get sold.

Over time RE only goes up, just as sure as we are to die. So is it sustainable? And long as Havasu attracts tourism successfully, yes.

 

[Hardly Satisfied]

Whenever I am feeling like the sky is falling i spin up this video and I realize that I really have not one fucking thing to complain about.

Wow what a vide. Sad to watch but I’m thankful for what we have

 

[monkeyswrench]

Wow what a vide. Sad to watch but I’m thankful for what we have

Seeing the rest of the world through the eyes of travel channels is so far from everything else. I've been to some areas in Mexico that aren't far off of that video. It really should make people truly appreciate what they have. Sometimes though, a person still cannot understand. That is both good and bad. It means they've never been close, which is good. It is also bad, because they have no fear of it.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

I need to make an edit to my opportunity list for LHC.

Health care. Does LHC have a good reputation for health care services? If it wants to be a proper retirement community, it needs exceptional health care. I've not heard great things.

If Offroading and Boater access are paramount to LHC, they should work toward protecting those things. I'm unsure how to protect boaters' access, but I know a thing or two about OHV access. I would not depend on BLM to maintain access; I would work to establish a dedicated OHV recreation area.

The events are significant that LHC has. I was unaware of all these until we came here for winter. LHC tourism board could do a better job outside the area promoting the events. I heard an interesting point from a local friend about the events. I asked him about concerts, and he said the following:

• Snowbirds are cheap and like free or low-cost events
• Californians are too busy with recreation to bother with paying for additional entertainment
• Full-time working-class residents don't have enough free cash to pay for top-tier entertainment.

I think the weather is the biggest asset. I have to go to Denver tomorrow for the week, and I am dreading shoes and pants.

 

[TCHB]

I need to make an edit to my opportunity list for LHC.

Health care. Does LHC have a good reputation for health care services? If it wants to be a proper retirement community, it needs exceptional health care. I've not heard great things.

If Offroading and Boater access are paramount to LHC, they should work toward protecting those things. I'm unsure how to protect boaters' access, but I know a thing or two about OHV access. I would not depend on BLM to maintain access; I would work to establish a dedicated OHV recreation area.

The events are significant that LHC has. I was unaware of all these until we came here for winter. LHC tourism board could do a better job outside the area promoting the events. I heard an interesting point from a local friend about the events. I asked him about concerts, and he said the following:

• Snowbirds are cheap and like free or low-cost events
• Californians are too busy with recreation to bother with paying for additional entertainment
• Full-time working-class residents don't have enough free cash to pay for top-tier entertainment.

I think the weather is the biggest asset. I have to go to Denver tomorrow for the week, and I am dreading shoes and pants.

The hospital had a D rating in 2022 by a national ranking company.

Havasu Regional Medical Center - AZ - Hospital Safety Grade

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