Tighten your belts people...

[GRADS]

We're headed for a recession. Nothing like 2008 but it's coming.

 

[Dalton]

People have been saying that, I wont say you're wrong, I don't know enough. I read a book called "the greatest trade ever" to get a good grasp on what exactly happened in 2008. Those conditions don't exist now, but maybe others do. I'm not sure.

 

[attitude]

If it happens I hope home prices drop to what they were 8 or so years ago so I can buy my first house and not worry about getting bent over.

 

[Kahunajuice]

We're headed for a recession. Nothing like 2008 but it's coming.

No SHIT !!!!!!!!!

 

[ElAzul]

I would say more of a leveling out reality check if anything

 

[GRADS]

Wait for it.

 

[napanutt]

We're headed for a recession. Nothing like 2008 but it's coming.

How confident are you? Why don’t you sell high and buy, whatever? I’m pretty sure you aren’t gonna retire *insert jokes here* where you’re living now, are you?

 

[GRADS]

How confident are you? Why don’t you sell high and buy, whatever? I’m pretty sure you aren’t gonna retire *insert jokes here* where you’re living now, are you?

I have almost nothing in stocks right now. Hoarding cash at this point. It's coming. Mark my words.

 

[TCHB]

Stock market is not good for 2018 even after a tax cut for business. 2019 may be a good year for short term Tbills.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I have almost nothing in stocks right now. Hoarding cash at this point. It's coming. Mark my words.

Thanks Nostradamus. Yes it is coming, it is always coming. When the economy starts losing jobs, it is close. We are not there yet.

 

[4Waters]

This one (when it comes) will be caused by commercial lending.

 

[4Waters]

Now I know that you're not going to make money on someone else's misfortune right, because that would be wrong.

 

[ilmormark]

Not a chance thats gonna happen possibly a slow down for the holidays but it will heat up even more by next summer. The economy historically goes in 7 year cycles we are only in year 3 not a chance dont sell continue to buy

 

[napanutt]

I have almost nothing in stocks right now. Hoarding cash at this point. It's coming. Mark my words.

I was actually referring to your house. I’m sure you have a bit of equity. Sell and pay cash for your retirement house in Cabo or where ever it is you want to retire to.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

If it happens I hope home prices drop to what they were 8 or so years ago so I can buy my first house and not worry about getting bent over.

Hate to burst your bubble but that isn't going to happen.

Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk

 

[Tank]

I'm no economist, but I do know from the research I've done we ride the economic roller coaster and the low point hits every 10 years or so and has since the 70's. That time has passed so we're on borrowed time, unless, like an earthquake, we have a slight adjust / slow down which will avoid an actual recession. We'll see. It's just like the Dems taking the house, historically it happens every time and vice versa when a dem is pres. There's no "sky is falling" or "hoard your money" thinking required. It's inevitable. Things can't keep climbing, have to level off or drop slightly eventually. If it doesn't, THAT'S when you have problems. And like others stated, we're not in the same situation economically with the banks giving out bad loans like hotcakes like they were in 05-09.

 

[JD D05]

I'm no economist, but I do know from the research I've done we ride the economic roller coaster and the low point hits every 10 years or so and has since the 70's. That time has passed so we're on borrowed time, unless, like an earthquake, we have a slight adjust / slow down which will avoid an actual recession. We'll see. It's just like the Dems taking the house, historically it happens every time and vice versa when a dem is pres. There's no "sky is falling" or "hoard your money" thinking required. It's inevitable. Things can't keep climbing, have to level off or drop slightly eventually. If it doesn't, THAT'S when you have problems.

I agree. I have never understood the whole I am stacking cash comment. Unless you want to buy stuff when people are hurting I guess. I am paying shit off and increasing my investments. Cash does nothing for me.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Yield curve is definitely flattening which is a recession signal. Most analysts say 2020. Just yesterday Vice Fed Chair Clarida stated that we are close to neutral range now and neutral makes sense.

I think any more hikes this year and recession could come sooner. We are a global economy and the global Outlook is not good, which will spill over to the US.

Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk

 

[steak&lobster]

Thanks Nostradamus. Yes it is coming, it is always coming. When the economy starts losing jobs, it is close. We are not there yet.

He is posting this for the same reason he always does; ATTENTION AND CLICKS. Besides, I don't wear belts. . .

 

[DrunkenSailor]

This one (when it comes) will be caused by commercial lending.

Watch the bond markets and you will figure out pretty quick where the next crash will come from. The commercial bond market is over inflated. Profitable mutual funds, hedge funds and insurance companies have to deploy money. The mortgage bond market was dead so it all went into commercial and government bonds. With rates rising and companies over laden with debt you will see companies start to fail. Unemployment numbers will rise, stock market will crash, etc... No idea on severity but I am watching quarterly earnings reports pretty closely.

 

[RVR SWPR]

Most likely not the intention,but turned into excellent informative thread. Interesting inside opinions.

 

[nowski]

Showing off your clairvoyant skills??? LOL

 

[riverroyal]

I dunno. The largest construction boom in socal is upon us. There will be a labor shortage for the first time ever. I just dont see a recession coming.
The people and huge corporations spending to build right now know how to use money
Maybe a recession in specific areas, not here

 

[nowski]

We all know there is going to be another recession, it's not rocket science. Recessions happen about as frequent as a pitcher throwing a perfect game. Name the next pitcher that throws the next perfect game, against what team, then will talk...

Recessions = Buying Opportunities...

 

[PaPaG]

A recession is ALWAYS on the horizon...but we currently have an economy that is booming, a job market that is at record highs, we should be able to ride out this small storm..Not if but when we have another interest rate hike the IDIOT Jerome Powell will have single handedly slowed down our economy, hurt our stock market, hurt consumer confidence, and probably even hurt the job market. We did need to increase rates but at a slower level, I think another point or two is in order but again slowly, let it be eased in not shoved in all at once or in just a short period of 12 or 18 months...with the left in power in congress the idiots on the left will not only hold up a lot of the recovery we are seeing for the last 2 years they will put a stop to it as they had done when the failure in chief Obama was in office..only a financial fool thinks O's rein was good for our economy and the hard working Americans that have enjoyed Americas recovery for the last 2 years will end up paying the price once again...

 

[zhandfull]

Thanks Nostradamus. Yes it is coming, it is always coming. When the economy starts losing jobs, it is close. We are not there yet.

I was talking with two developer guys the other day about the current track housing conditions. Niether mentioned any big changes currently. Both did say in 2008 it was like turning off a light switch. One day excavating for storm drains and the next day filling the trench in without pipe and pulling off the project perminately.

I think once the job losses start it can and probably will happen quickly.

 

[Icky]

There already is a skilled labor shortage.

I dunno. The largest construction boom in socal is upon us. There will be a labor shortage for the first time ever. I just dont see a recession coming.
The people and huge corporations spending to build right now know how to use money
Maybe a recession in specific areas, not here

 

[King295]

I was talking with two developer guys the other day about the current track housing conditions. Niether mentioned any big changes currently. Both did say in 2008 it was like turning off a light switch. One day excavating for storm drains and the next day filling the trench in without pipe and pulling off the project perminately.

I think once the job losses start it can and probably will happen quickly.

I worked for a residential concrete foundation company from 2005 to 2010. A light switch is a very good analogy, it was wild.

I ultimately wound the company down with only incurring 6 months of losses. All owners of the business have retired comfortably and I moved onto bigger and better things. Sure glad I was their accountant and not tied to the actual construction side of things, lot of guys are still trying to rebuild from that one.

 

[Enen]

You should buy gold Grads.

 

[sintax]

If it happens I hope home prices drop to what they were 8 or so years ago so I can buy my first house and not worry about getting bent over.

I'm with you there man, 2008 was a blessing for me in that regard. I was 26 and able to buy a great home at the bottom of the market and lock in a pretty solid rate. If things were going the way they were going I would have gotten suckered into a 650k house in Corona and would have been struggling for the next 30 years to pay for it.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I was talking with two developer guys the other day about the current track housing conditions. Niether mentioned any big changes currently. Both did say in 2008 it was like turning off a light switch. One day excavating for storm drains and the next day filling the trench in without pipe and pulling off the project perminately.

I think once the job losses start it can and probably will happen quickly.

Last time it took 18 months. There was deceleration of the economy and job losses during that time. When lending stopped is when that industry took the hit.

They are going to continue to build housing until the second it is not profitable to do so. I’d expect a fast halt in that vertical given the conditions in 08... if banks are not lending, few can buy houses.

 

[BHC Vic]

I'm no economist, but I do know from the research I've done we ride the economic roller coaster and the low point hits every 10 years or so and has since the 70's. That time has passed so we're on borrowed time, unless, like an earthquake, we have a slight adjust / slow down which will avoid an actual recession. We'll see. It's just like the Dems taking the house, historically it happens every time and vice versa when a dem is pres. There's no "sky is falling" or "hoard your money" thinking required. It's inevitable. Things can't keep climbing, have to level off or drop slightly eventually. If it doesn't, THAT'S when you have problems. And like others stated, we're not in the same situation economically with the banks giving out bad loans like hotcakes like they were in 05-09.

I wouldn’t say I disagree exactly but I work with a lot of guys 18-30. They are giving out loans like crazy for people that can’t afford them. 800 dollar truck payment 3k dollar mortgage. It’s not hard to get a loan. My brother qualified for a shit load even on his single small income. I hear people doing “creative financing all the time” when we applied for our loan they guy said sweet cut and dry I don’t have to make any magic happen.

 

[BHC Vic]

I was talking with two developer guys the other day about the current track housing conditions. Niether mentioned any big changes currently. Both did say in 2008 it was like turning off a light switch. One day excavating for storm drains and the next day filling the trench in without pipe and pulling off the project perminately.

I think once the job losses start it can and probably will happen quickly.

Yup I’ve seen t first hand. That’s why I don’t ever get comfortable just because it’s booming. They are just picking up on the towers we’re they left off in Vegas 10 years ago. Can happen over night with one at okenof the pen

 

[BHC Vic]

I'm with you there man, 2008 was a blessing for me in that regard. I was 26 and able to buy a great home at the bottom of the market and lock in a pretty solid rate. If things were going the way they were going I would have gotten suckered into a 650k house in Corona and would have been struggling for the next 30 years to pay for it.

Hey I just got suckered into a 600k dollar house in norco

 

[Icky]

Hey I just got suckered into a 600k dollar house in norco

At least I know where my union dues are going

 

[sintax]

Hey I just got suckered into a 600k dollar house in norco

Well hey man, at least in Norco is still fun though, love hanging out at some of those shitty bars off of 6th harassing the "cowgirls".

 

[Old Texan]

One big reason CA could go south soon.....Gavin N and Nancy P

TX is booming and loser Beto is heading west as his Irish daddy told him to follow the money. And Texans ain't got none to give his loser ass like his CA backers.

 

[AZMIDLYF]

Corporate and consumer debt is at levels right now to pre 2008...dollar is strong, interest rate high, developing nations struggling to pay their debt. One domino away.

 

[Yellowboat]

I know it's coming contractors are bouncing checks.

 

[530RL]

A recession is ALWAYS on the horizon...but we currently have an economy that is booming, a job market that is at record highs, we should be able to ride out this small storm..Not if but when we have another interest rate hike the IDIOT Jerome Powell will have single handedly slowed down our economy, hurt our stock market, hurt consumer confidence, and probably even hurt the job market. We did need to increase rates but at a slower level, I think another point or two is in order but again slowly, let it be eased in not shoved in all at once or in just a short period of 12 or 18 months...with the left in power in congress the idiots on the left will not only hold up a lot of the recovery we are seeing for the last 2 years they will put a stop to it as they had done when the failure in chief Obama was in office..only a financial fool thinks O's rein was good for our economy and the hard working Americans that have enjoyed Americas recovery for the last 2 years will end up paying the price once again...

When an administration raises fiscal stimulus via deficit spending from 3% of GDP to 6% of GDP over the last 2 years, it seems rational and logical that one should see greater job growth and economic activity as we have.

However, deficit run rates of 6% of GDP are unsustainable and sooner or later we American's are going to have to pay for it.

If anyone can figure out when that is, I would appreciate a heads up.

 

[Willie B]

This one (when it comes) will be caused by commercial lending.

...Yep...

 

[Classic Daycruiser]

We're headed for a recession. Nothing like 2008 but it's coming.

If you've been on this plant for over 1/2 a century, you've been through a few recessions. The best part about recessions are the fire sales that follow.

 

[Classic Daycruiser]

When an administration raises fiscal stimulus via deficit spending from 3% of GDP to 6% of GDP over the last 2 years, it seems rational and logical that one should see greater job growth and economic activity as we have.

However, deficit run rates of 6% of GDP are unsustainable and sooner or later we American's are going to have to pay for it.

If anyone can figure out when that is, I would appreciate a heads up.

2045 - After most of the baby boomers are dead.

 

[AZMIDLYF]

"Best Time To Buy Is When There's Blood In The Streets"...if of course, you are liquid at this time.

 

[grumpy88]

I know it's coming contractors are bouncing checks.

It was pay you or put the down payment on the new DCB !

 

[GRADS]

I saw the last recession coming in early 2006 and tried to prepare...it didn't matter, still lost everything. I see similar signs lately.

 

[CoolCruzin]

Nothing is going to happen

 

[zhandfull]

I saw the last recession coming in early 2006 and tried to prepare...it didn't matter, still lost everything. I see similar signs lately.

Do you think that you will lose everything this time around? If not what is different?

 

[GRADS]

Do you think that you will lose everything this time around? If not what is different?

This time around I have no debt. Lesson learned.

 

[J.P.]

I'm thinking the dow needs a reset back to about 17k. You have to remember the fed/gov was pumping 80 billion a month into the market for several years, that's almost a trillion a year.