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For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

Englewood

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I'm surprised that nobody talks about the fact that in the past, when people bought a new house they sold the one they were in, but most people, that I know anyway, have kept their homes & are renting them for a premium. This is a huge problem for inventory.

Also, there's real estate investment firms out there buying anything that's a good deal & keeping them as rentals.

All this, to me, is another huge factor in why the prices will remain high, Economics 101 which I learned in Economics class in the 8th grade, and boils down to "Supply & Demand". Low supply, high demand thus high prices.
What firms are buying up houses?
 

Englewood

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Can you back this up with data? Dont take that as a personal attack, im attacking this narrative that keeps getting repeated but i never see anything to substantiate the claims.

I am not in the real estate industry, but this just doesnt make sense to me for the SFH market. Condos, townhome communities, trailer parks, and appartments/buildings, sure, I can see where it makes sense for the larger investors. I just dont buy that big firms are snatching up even a fraction of available SFH’s. The numbers make no sense for cashflow.

Would love to hear from realators, how many SFH’s they sell to the big bad investment groups?

IMO, there is too much cost associated with SFH’s compared to the more square footage dense options of apartments, condos, and townhomes.

I dont think anyone in here is complaining they cant afford a condo. Everyone has much higher standards than that. No one wants to change their standards to what they can afford…..they want a nice house with a 1/2 acre and RV parking in a good neighborhood for $400k….
They aren’t. It’s a myth from main stream media to pit people against these big evil corporations.
 

EmpirE231

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They aren’t. It’s a myth from main stream media to pit people against these big evil corporations.
Met a guy this weekend in glamis that works for a company that’s subbed out by black rock type corporations… said they do the evictions and cash for keys scenarios for the tenants behind on rents. He said there’s a huge backlog of people that still have not paid rent since the covid days. He said they cover phoenix, riverside, Vegas etc. hundreds of homes, and they are just one of the companies subbed out for this… meaning there are several other companies doing the same thing.

He did also say they all started buying a lot more home again starting a few weeks ago.

🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️
 

badgas

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They aren’t. It’s a myth from main stream media to pit people against these big evil corporations.
My brother and nephew are RE agents in So Cal. They have never sold a home to anyone but a regular Joe homeowner. Every realtor I know says the same thing.

I hear politicians like RFK say that these home owners are just a front and somewhere up the chain the houses are owned by blackjack vanguard etc.

I agree with @evantwheeler I would not be a great investment if they are doing this in so cal , they buy a $1,200,000 SFH that only rents for $4,000 now back out the property taxes and you are barley making a 3% return. Now factor in property management and insurance and it's it's less than 2%

You could almost buy and hold with no rent and be similar investment unless they are just using the tenants to make sure the house does not get torn down or destroyed without insurance.

I'm sure there are truths on both sides but also a LOT of hype just like everything else that media on BOTH sides is always spewing.
 
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Runs2rch

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My brother and nephew are RE agents in So Cal. They have never sold a home to anyone but a regular Joe homeowner. Every realtor I know says the same thing.

I hear politicians like RFK say that these home owners are just a front and somewhere up the chain the houses are owned by blackjack vanguard etc.

I agree with @evantwheeler I would not be a great investment. if they are doing this in so cal , they buy a $1,200,000 SFH that only rents for $4,000 now back out the property taxes and you are barley making a 3% return. Now factor in property management and insurance and it's it's less than 2%

You could almost buy and hold with no rent and be similar investment unless they are just using the tenants to make sure the house does not get torn down or destroyed without insurance.

I'm sure there are truths on both sides but also a LOT of hype just like everything else that media on BOTH sides is always spewing.
Joe homeowner, his kids, parents, and grandparents. All contributing to the household to afford it.
 

Sportin' Wood

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They aren’t. It’s a myth from main stream media to pit people against these big evil corporations.
I have mixed feelings about posting this, but what the hell. Here is my opinion.

I don't believe it is a myth that corporations see an opportunity in Sunbelt single-family RE investments.

Big Evil Corporations are, in my experience, not evil so much as singularly focused on greed. If greed is perceived as evil, then I guess they are evil.

No matter what catchy, feel-good mission statement they may rally around, they have one true mission if they are a publicly traded company. Increase shareholder value. This is to be achieved by whatever means necessary. Workers are just tools to achieve performance results. They are faceless bundles of energy to produce. Same with consumers, except they are opportunities to extract revenue.

Don't confuse a small business that files taxes as an S-Corp with a public company. They are vastly different beasts. The bureaucracy of a public company inherently produces bad behavior in an effort to reach the next rung and qualify the practitioner for stock options so that they can reap benefits. I once thought I was somehow a corporation because I was the leader of a 50-person S-Corp. I was mistaken.

The gap between leadership annual income and managers only twice removed down the pyramid can be staggering. Throw in a few politicians manipulating policy in exchange for insider trading, and you have a recipe for disastrous results for average citizens—maximum profits for shareholders. Yes, anyone can play, but we don't get to see the same data.

The system IS rigged, and it always has been. In a capitalist society, you need to learn the game. The only way to learn is to be born into it, marry into it, or play it mercilessly until you understand it and trade your morals for the acumen to win.

Most people just want to be comfortable and are happy to be told what to do. It's the same in all societies; only the master is different.

The leash has been left a little too loose on these dogs.
 

Sportin' Wood

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My brother and nephew are RE agents in So Cal. They have never sold a home to anyone but a regular Joe homeowner. Every realtor I know says the same thing.

I hear politicians like RFK say that these home owners are just a front and somewhere up the chain the houses are owned by blackjack vanguard etc.

I agree with @evantwheeler I would not be a great investment. if they are doing this in so cal , they buy a $1,200,000 SFH that only rents for $4,000 now back out the property taxes and you are barley making a 3% return. Now factor in property management and insurance and it's it's less than 2%

You could almost buy and hold with no rent and be similar investment unless they are just using the tenants to make sure the house does not get torn down or destroyed without insurance.

I'm sure there are truths on both sides but also a LOT of hype just like everything else that media on BOTH sides is always spewing.
My guess is that SCALE increases that margin profile. Throw in available working cash flow and some GAAP magic, and you can show profitable growth and drive up that shareholder value. How much do you think insurance costs when you own the insurance company? The left hand is washing the right hand is my bet. My guess is some paper losses also play a role in taking advantage of the tax code.

Working capital is one of the key performance indicators for a public company. I bet there is all kinds of upside to mortgaged property rented at scale.

S'Wood = low-performing student by no means an expert.
 

evantwheeler

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Met a guy this weekend in glamis that works for a company that’s subbed out by black rock type corporations… said they do the evictions and cash for keys scenarios for the tenants behind on rents. He said there’s a huge backlog of people that still have not paid rent since the covid days. He said they cover phoenix, riverside, Vegas etc. hundreds of homes, and they are just one of the companies subbed out for this… meaning there are several other companies doing the same thing.

He did also say they all started buying a lot more home again starting a few weeks ago.

🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️
Blackrock upper level management meeting:

Executive VP: “Sir, we have massive portfolio of homes that we havent collected rent on for almost 3 years.”

Higher Executive: ”We’re not here to make money, we buy these homes as a community service to help the less fortunate. Now go out there and start buying up more homes!”
 

evantwheeler

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My guess is that SCALE increases that margin profile. Throw in available working cash flow and some GAAP magic, and you can show profitable growth and drive up that shareholder value. How much do you think insurance costs when you own the insurance company? The left hand is washing the right hand is my bet. My guess is some paper losses also play a role in taking advantage of the tax code.

Working capital is one of the key performance indicators for a public company. I bet there is all kinds of upside to mortgaged property rented at scale.

S'Wood = low-performing student by no means an expert.
I just dont get why they would play in the SFH market. Why not buy a whole f-ing apartment complex? I would imagine the numbers make waaaay more sense from an investment standpoint on a massive building with a bunch of sqft dense units versus a 4/3 3500 sqft home on an 8000 sqft lot.
 

badgas

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My guess is that SCALE increases that margin profile. Throw in available working cash flow and some GAAP magic, and you can show profitable growth and drive up that shareholder value. How much do you think insurance costs when you own the insurance company? The left hand is washing the right hand is my bet. My guess is some paper losses also play a role in taking advantage of the tax code.

Working capital is one of the key performance indicators for a public company. I bet there is all kinds of upside to mortgaged property rented at scale.

S'Wood = low-performing student by no means an expert.
Probably true just not in So Cal with a SFH
 

bowtiejunkie

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Blackstone. They are the big headline grabbing SFH purchaser. That portfolio become Invitation Homes, which is now a public company and Blackstone sold its remaining stake in. They made billions of dollars.

If an individual can make money buying a SFH and paying all the costs, why can't an investor make money doing the same at scale? There are only a few investment firms that have bought tens of thousands of SFH's. But, there are likely thousands of investors who have 1 to 100 SFH's in their portfolio. There are a number of RDPers who can be classified as SFH investors. How much the SFH market is held by an "investor" is hard to determine due to the manner in which measured.
 

hallett21

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I just dont get why they would play in the SFH market. Why not buy a whole f-ing apartment complex? I would imagine the numbers make waaaay more sense from an investment standpoint on a massive building with a bunch of sqft dense units versus a 4/3 3500 sqft home on an 8000 sqft lot.
I would only say that those properties are priced insanely high. Some of these apartments only make sense if you pay cash.
 

DC-88

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I just dont get why they would play in the SFH market. Why not buy a whole f-ing apartment complex? I would imagine the numbers make waaaay more sense from an investment standpoint on a massive building with a bunch of sqft dense units versus a 4/3 3500 sqft home on an 8000 sqft lot.
Or mini storages etc. which would end up with much less deferred maintenance . SFR in my own experience only worked out due to buying in dare I say ... California or other appreciating markets . Of course upon sale you get pounded on that gain from the depreciation you were forced to take unless 1031 to "like" property .
The business model of 1000's of bundled SFH's relates in my mind to the panicked calls I receive every so often from one of my kids buddies for advice who works for Sun Run.... where they made him do an out of state LLC to get paid ( gotta' be illegal ?) and the train wreck after each sale of who is going to upgrade the panel, patch the stucco, match the paint, fix the siding, fix the shitty roof tie in's, deal with the subsequent complaints etc. as if all SFR's are all just these standardized high quality cash cows lmao.
 

Sportin' Wood

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I just dont get why they would play in the SFH market. Why not buy a whole f-ing apartment complex? I would imagine the numbers make waaaay more sense from an investment standpoint on a massive building with a bunch of sqft dense units versus a 4/3 3500 sqft home on an 8000 sqft lot.
I'm not keen on how valuation works for selling a company, but I do know the multiplier changes when you reach a certain threshold. Why not bundle a portfolio of SFH assets to reach a specific multiplier and sell while you can show profitable growth?

I'm not sure of the threshold for the multiplier change, but let's call it $100M hypothetically.

I buy an RE investment firm for $10M at a 4x annual revenue multiplier. I do that ten times and hit my multiplier threshold of $100M. Now, let's say my valuation multiplier goes to 10X. Regardless of how much operating profit I am producing, I get a massive ROI on the multiplier, and I sell it off to private equity or who/whatever.

The interest rates really don't hurt me because I can adjust my rent accordingly. I also leverage my processes, best practices, and scale to improve my margin. Everything looks good on paper, and I sell the whole enchilada and make a hefty profit.

My guess is they do multi-family as well. Why California? Location Location Location. Past results favor an upside, no matter how crazy things seem.

I would love to hear from someone smarter than me about this theory and if I'm remotely correct.
 

Englewood

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Blackstone. They are the big headline grabbing SFH purchaser. That portfolio become Invitation Homes, which is now a public company and Blackstone sold its remaining stake in. They made billions of dollars.

If an individual can make money buying a SFH and paying all the costs, why can't an investor make money doing the same at scale? There are only a few investment firms that have bought tens of thousands of SFH's. But, there are likely thousands of investors who have 1 to 100 SFH's in their portfolio. There are a number of RDPers who can be classified as SFH investors. How much the SFH market is held by an "investor" is hard to determine due to the manner in which measured.
There is nothing in the data to show that Wall Street has been the big buyer of homes in the U.S since 2000. If you want to pin the blame on someone, you’re going to have to blame the Millennials, who started buying homes in 2013 and we're the largest percentage of homebuyers until mortgage rates rose in 2022. Either way, it’s not Wall Street, but that isn’t a sexy talking point in the class warfare dialogue.

Of the investor purchases, the following is the breakdown:

1-9 unit owners = 19.6%
10-99 Unit owners = 2.7%
100-999 Unit owners = 0.7%
1000+ unit owners = 0.3%

As you will see below, Investor ownership is less now than in 2011.
1707155928561.png



I just dont get why they would play in the SFH market. Why not buy a whole f-ing apartment complex? I would imagine the numbers make waaaay more sense from an investment standpoint on a massive building with a bunch of sqft dense units versus a 4/3 3500 sqft home on an 8000 sqft lot.
They don't. Multi-family is WAYYYYY more profitable than a single family home! The big boys don't play with individual single family rentals.
 
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Sportin' Wood

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There is nothing in the data to show that Wall Street has been the big buyer of homes in the U.S since 2000. If you want to pin the blame on someone, you’re going to have to blame the Millennials, who started buying homes in 2013 and we're the largest percentage of homebuyers until mortgage rates rose in 2022. Either way, it’s not Wall Street, but that isn’t a sexy talking point in the class warfare dialogue.

Of the investor purchases, the following is the breakdown:

1-9 unit owners = 19.6%
10-99 Unit owners = 2.7%
100-999 Unit owners = 0.7%
1000+ unit owners = 0.3%

As you will see below, Investor ownership is less now than in 2011.
View attachment 1331388



They don't. Multi-family is WAYYYYY more profitable than a single family home! The big boys don't play with individual single family rentals.
Thanks for sharing this. I assume 2Q22 was consistently up across all types at the same rate?
 

Englewood

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Thanks for sharing this. I assume 2Q22 was consistently up across all types at the same rate?
Per the inter webs...Investors purchased 19.4% of the homes sold in Q2, down slightly from a record 20.1% in Q1 2022
 

NicPaus

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Open house Saturday was 90% investors or flippers. Several offers were sight unseen per the agent. Wholesalers. They buy them and turn them before escrow closes she told me.

They were looking for owner occupied offers. Said the 70 year old seller would prefer it. I told my clients to write her a letter. And have there kids do the same. They have cash to buy but they only left them with 150k to spend. So they weren't sure if they wanted it. My rough bid was 200k to move in then another 100k for outside.
 

Englewood

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Open house Saturday was 90% investors or flippers. Several offers were sight unseen per the agent. Wholesalers. They buy them and turn them before escrow closes she told me.

They were looking for owner occupied offers. Said the 70 year old seller would prefer it. I told my clients to write her a letter. And have there kids do the same. They have cash to buy but they only left them with 150k to spend. So they weren't sure if they wanted it. My rough bid was 200k to move in then another 100k for outside.
Those are wholesalers...Met hundreds and can count on one hand the ones who actually succeed at it.

Friendly advice - Don't write letters. Everyone has prejudices and this can easily hurt as much or more than it helps.

Most flippers and investors have pivoted to focusing on ADUs. They can buy a house, convert garage, then add ADU...Boom, 3 units.
 

BHC Vic

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Those are wholesalers...Met hundreds and can count on one hand the ones who actually succeed at it.

Friendly advice - Don't write letters. Everyone has prejudices and this can easily hurt as much or more than it helps.

Most flippers and investors have pivoted to focusing on ADUs. They can buy a house, convert garage, then add ADU...Boom, 3 units.
I’ve only bought 4 houses so I’m far from an expert but wrote letters each time and was told we got the house because of the letter twice 🤷‍♂️
 

attitude

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I’ve only bought 4 houses so I’m far from an expert but wrote letters each time and was told we got the house because of the letter twice 🤷‍♂️
I only rent, but when we applied for our current home we submitted a letter and family picture. According to my landlord that is why he and his wife chose us, still to this day he talks about how much his wife loved that letter.
 

Cdog

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I only rent, but when we applied for our current home we submitted a letter and family picture. According to my landlord that is why he and his wife chose us, still to this day he talks about how much his wife loved that letter.
Current trend is to not accept those anymore as a seller/landlord might discriminate when they see the picture.

I said they’d discriminate when they see a 520 fico score lol!
 

attitude

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Current trend is to not accept those anymore as a seller/landlord might discriminate when they see the picture.

I said they’d discriminate when they see a 520 fico score lol!
Well I know they sure do in Eastvale, I had to give up looking for a rental there because the Asian landlords only rent to other Asians. lol

It all worked out though, I’ve had two awesome landlords since then.
 

evantwheeler

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Current trend is to not accept those anymore as a seller/landlord might discriminate when they see the picture.

I said they’d discriminate when they see a 520 fico score lol!

If they're going to discriminate due to a photo, they'll discriminate based on how the buyers names are spelled..... shitty people will always be shitty people.

I got my first apartment lease due to writing letters in 2008. In 2020, I was driving past that community on my way back across the country from NY (the community was Edwards, Colorado, down valley from Vail). I swung by the apartment an lo and behold, old Gene was out front washing his BMW adventure bike - he had moved into the apartment after selling his home. It was super cool seeing him again after all those year, and he remembered me and my roommates. He specifically brought up the letters we provided with our application, said it was the first and only time he ever got letters. It obviously made a lasting impression. Maybe it only worked because all parties were white? I did include pictures with my letter....
 

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For our Norco home the owners were home when we did a walk through. The husband Tim called me a punk kid 😂😂they didn’t want to move so I get it, there were no hard feelings
 

angiebaby

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This was posted at our delegates meeting yesterday. For some reason I instantly thought you would get a kick out of it. It’s was a hard meeting to sit through 😂 View attachment 1331121
What does the "D" and "R" stand for? I originally thought they were trying to say that at these moments they had a "D" or an "R" governor, but that's not accurate.
 
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wet hull

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Not a myth but little more to it. My wife company over sees a major fund and this is their angle. They are funding entire master planned communities that will only be for rent. All over the country. There is one like it going up in Menifee area just north of Temecula. This is not a $$ millions deal, its close a a $billion plus. They can steamroll everything and make these communities happen especially when the cities are so hot for the tax revenue. To be clear myself and wife are not fans of this. Going to be nice out of the gate but then they will deteriorate like all other rentals when the tennant could care less about up keep.
 

Englewood

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Not a myth but little more to it. My wife company over sees a major fund and this is their angle. They are funding entire master planned communities that will only be for rent. All over the country. There is one like it going up in Menifee area just north of Temecula. This is not a $$ millions deal, its close a a $billion plus. They can steamroll everything and make these communities happen especially when the cities are so hot for the tax revenue. To be clear myself and wife are not fans of this. Going to be nice out of the gate but then they will deteriorate like all other rentals when the tennant could care less about up keep.
I believe the difference is they are building them from scratch. That’s a solid plan. It makes maintenance much easier when everything is uniform.
 

DrunkenSailor

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Can you back this up with data? Dont take that as a personal attack, im attacking this narrative that keeps getting repeated but i never see anything to substantiate the claims.

I am not in the real estate industry, but this just doesnt make sense to me for the SFH market. Condos, townhome communities, trailer parks, and appartments/buildings, sure, I can see where it makes sense for the larger investors. I just dont buy that big firms are snatching up even a fraction of available SFH’s. The numbers make no sense for cashflow.

Would love to hear from realators, how many SFH’s they sell to the big bad investment groups?

IMO, there is too much cost associated with SFH’s compared to the more square footage dense options of apartments, condos, and townhomes.

I dont think anyone in here is complaining they cant afford a condo. Everyone has much higher standards than that. No one wants to change their standards to what they can afford…..they want a nice house with a 1/2 acre and RV parking in a good neighborhood for $400k….

Here is a good article on the subject.


Sfr labeled securitizations are when a company takes out a loan based on the companies credit and balance sheet to purchase a 1-4 unit residential rental. This isn't your neighbor and their LLC buying shit hole properties. It's large portfolios bought by large companies who are qualifying based on cash held by the LLC. Some of these loans are backed by multiple properties. For instance one loan may be cross collateralized by 80 individual homes. These loans are then aggregated and rolled into securitizations and typically carry an sfr tag in the securitizations name.the most recent issue was prog 2024-sfr1.

The financed and securitized portion of the housing market that is rental is roughly 20% but that's a dated number and I think it's a bit higher. 3% of 1-4 family properties securitized are classified as sfr.
Screenshot_20240205-074332.png


Screenshot_20240205-074442.png

An inv labeled securitization is a mom and pop decr pool and roughly 50% of all nonqm securitizations are business purpose loans for rentals.

It's not the blackrocks of the world who own the rental properties in your neighborhood, although they do own quite a few. It's more likely someone who owns 3-5 properties around town.

Nonqm was roughly 80bn in 2024 and I would guess that 40bn of that was rental.

As mentioned build to rent is rapidly growing. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.gl...ass-poised-to-become-institutionalized/?amp=1
 

DC-88

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Not a myth but little more to it. My wife company over sees a major fund and this is their angle. They are funding entire master planned communities that will only be for rent. All over the country. There is one like it going up in Menifee area just north of Temecula. This is not a $$ millions deal, its close a a $billion plus. They can steamroll everything and make these communities happen especially when the cities are so hot for the tax revenue. To be clear myself and wife are not fans of this. Going to be nice out of the gate but then they will deteriorate like all other rentals when the tennant could care less about up keep.
Saw a couple of these in PHX area the other day. Like a sea of double wide Tuff Sheds in the middle of an otherwise nice developing growth area.
 

Sportin' Wood

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It was shared with me by a friend. I'm not sure of the source, but I figured it was worth tossing in the mix. Not really a game-changing surprise, but perhaps validation of the erosion of the market.

For Americans who lacked savings prior to the pandemic, financial stress is rising. A combination of inflation, increased interest rates, and the end of pandemic-tied relief, such as the moratorium on student loan payments, has led to record credit card debt, experts say.
In the fourth quarter of 2023, Americans held $1.13 trillion on their credit cards, and aggregate household debt balances increased by $212 billion, a 1.2% rise, according to the latest data from the New York Federal Reserve.
Delinquencies are also on the rise. As of December, 3.1% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, up by 0.1 percentage point from the third quarter. The New York Fed's report found that 6.4% of credit card debt was delinquent by 90 days or more, up from 4% in the last quarter of 2022.
“Credit card and auto loan transitions into delinquency are still rising above pre-pandemic levels,” said Wilbert van der Klaauw, economic research advisor at the New York Fed. “This signals increased financial stress, especially among younger and lower-income households.”
The average interest rate on a given credit card is now roughly 21.5%, the highest it’s been since the Federal Reserve started tracking rates in 1994.
Silvio Tavares, president and CEO of VantageScore, one of the country’s two major credit scoring systems, said, “the reality is that there are starting to be some significant signs of stress,” despite consumers generally being in good financial health.
 

530RL

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Saw a couple of these in PHX area the other day. Like a sea of double wide Tuff Sheds in the middle of an otherwise nice developing growth area.
We refer to them as single story unattached apartments.

People don't want to pay up in rent, so you build down to what they are willing to pay.
 

Flatsix66

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Does anyone have any experience with real estate investing via a REIT, specifically Fundrise? It looks like they invest in multi-family mainly in sunbelt states. Seems like it would be an easy way to get some RE exposure at a low entry...or someone else get rich off of my money?
 

pkrrvr619

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Does anyone have any experience with real estate investing via a REIT, specifically Fundrise? It looks like they invest in multi-family mainly in sunbelt states. Seems like it would be an easy way to get some RE exposure at a low entry...or someone else get rich off of my money?
I invest with them and the returns have been less than desirable. the portfolio relies heavy on commercial real estate which has been pounded. lately.
 

lakemadness

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Does anyone have any experience with real estate investing via a REIT, specifically Fundrise? It looks like they invest in multi-family mainly in sunbelt states. Seems like it would be an easy way to get some RE exposure at a low entry...or someone else get rich off of my money?
There are so many better ways to get into RE investing. That way is for the lazy people who dont want to search for better options yet are still passive. A Fundrise type of deal finds you, the lazy person. You could search for a financial advisor who handles syndication deals for developers and/or buyers. There a plenty of deals out there where you're a limited partner in a real deal.
 
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