For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[ChumpChange]

. NOBODY gives up $230k in todays market.

lol. Yes they do.

Block-Sized Pasadena Office Property Reverts To Lender

The opening bid was less than half of the amount owed to Heitman for the office property.

www.bisnow.com

 

[Boat 405]

lol. Yes they do.

Block-Sized Pasadena Office Property Reverts To Lender

The opening bid was less than half of the amount owed to Heitman for the office property.

www.bisnow.com

Well commercial stuff is a bit different right now.

 

[ChumpChange]

Well commercial stuff is a bit different right now.

Some residential is as well. So I wouldn’t say “nobody” does it. Because I know people who have taken losses.

 

[530RL]

Today's consumer sentiment report

Surveys of Consumers

 

[Boat 405]

Some residential is as well. So I wouldn’t say “nobody” does it. Because I know people who have taken losses.

True, lots of unique situations.

 

[BHC Vic]

Today's consumer sentiment report

Surveys of Consumers

I wonder which consumers they survey because I feel the exact opposite

 

[regor]

 

[530RL]

Today's data

Existing home prices surpass income growth for the first time in 14 months

Existing home sales increased in January on a slight easing of mortgage rates. But home prices rose too.

www.yahoo.com

 

[Boatymcboatface]

So I guess I don’t understand housing. One of the houses in my HOA in Temecula just sold for $850k that’s just crazy to me the down payment is getting really close to what I paid for my house 14yrs ago!

 

[stillhustlin]

Seems like SoCal is off the rails again. A townhome in my parents neighbor just went for $110k over ask. Ask was $1.29. $350 hoa as well. With 20% down the payment would be like $8500 all said an done. Several other properties have gone over ask in the last month in their area with a couple a few hundred thousand over.

Utah is cruising as well. Sale notifications coming in every day and our forecast is getting destroyed at work.

 

[attitude]

I must be looking at house in poor areas because l’m only seeing price drops and stagnant inventory lol

 

[Boatymcboatface]

I must be looking at house in poor areas because l’m only seeing price drops and stagnant inventory lol

Everything in Temecula that I’ve seen “priced right” has sold for asking or just over within a week of listing.

 

[attitude]

Everything in Temecula that I’ve seen “priced right” has sold for asking or just over within a week of listing.

Temecula is popular and for the most part out of my price range, beautiful area though.

 

[Boatymcboatface]

Temecula is popular and for the most part out of my price range, beautiful area though.

Yeah I know the feeling I couldn’t buy my own house right now even if I wanted to!

 

[DrunkenSailor]

Yeah I know the feeling I couldn’t buy my own house right now even if I wanted to!

This is probably true for the majority

 

[zhandfull]

How about a RV garage and pool home in Havasu for $560k?

Nothing fancy but checks a few boxes.

 

[shintoooo]

Real estate is getting hot again here. Bidding wars starting again. House around my area just sold $80K over asking at $752/sq ft. Nuts!!

 

[77charger]

Temecula is popular and for the most part out of my price range, beautiful area though.

Nice yeh esp if you work in area but if you work in oc then that 91 fwy is a turn off. Known some who moved out there years ago off the start was the drives not bad you just turn some good tunes in and go with it. Then after a few months it’s curse words and hatred for the fwy lol.

Most was at first well you get a lot of house for money. But like said if you work in area it’s great.

 

[LuauLounge]

Never thought about it, but a 20% down will be more than what I paid for my home. The first years property tax will be more than what my down payment was.
Crazy world we live in. In our area, you can still rent a bedroom for our then house payment, assuming you can find one. A 1/1 apartment starts in the $1,500 range.

 

[jet496]

Never thought about it, but a 20% down will be more than what I paid for my home. The first years property tax will be more than what my down payment was.
Crazy world we live in. In our area, you can still rent a bedroom for our then house payment, assuming you can find one. A 1/1 apartment starts in the $1,500 range.

I never thought about that either. We paid $155k for our first house in 1991. Now that same house is worth close to a million. We did increase the size with a $40k remodel (crazy how far $40k went back then), but even adding that in is less than a down payment on a million dollar home here in CA.

 

[shintoooo]

Another reason inventory is low is with all the appreciation in prices, more people will be subject to taxes even after the $250K/$500K tax exemptions. Couple that with low interest rates or paid off mortgages, inventory is going to remain low for a long time.

 

[caribbean20]

It’s a building frenzy where we live, NW Denver metro, just outside of Boulder. Both single family and high density. There’s plenty of land on which to build, and build they are.

 

[cofooter]

Another reason inventory is low is with all the appreciation in prices, more people will be subject to taxes even after the $250K/$500K tax exemptions. Couple that with low interest rates or paid off mortgages, inventory is going to remain low for a long time.

Its just going to get worse the longer they wait assuming property values keep increasing........

 

[cofooter]

It’s a building frenzy where we live, NW Denver metro, just outside of Boulder. Both single family and high density. There’s plenty of land on which to build, and build they are.

Its crazy in Longmont, have you driven through Loveland lately??? My god..........

 

[caribbean20]

Its crazy in Longmont, have you driven through Loveland lately??? My god..........

I have. Broomfield, Louisville, Erie all the way north is just crazy the amount of construction. Not to mention all of the new warehouses along I-25. Literally a building boom.

 

[jet496]

It’s a building frenzy where we live, NW Denver metro, just outside of Boulder. Both single family and high density. There’s plenty of land on which to build, and build they are.

Yea, we just came from Colorado a few months ago where we have family all up & down the I-25 corridor & everywhere you look are houses going up & huge-ass warehouses outside of Denver. And I mean HUGE.

All of our young nieces & nephews live in brand new houses from Loveland down to Pueblo & some even have others that they rent out, yet they're barely 30 years old. One 32 year old nephew has 10 houses. Something tells me money's a little too easy right now & a bubble's going to burst. Not sure how that'll look but something just ain't right.

But here in CA both my boys would by a house but they can't even find one since anything good is scooped up in days. Even if they did find one, they'd need $250k down, $5k monthly payments, plus insurance, property taxes, etc. Quite a difference from Colorado & the rest of the country.

 

[shintoooo]

Its just going to get worse the longer they wait assuming property values keep increasing........

Yep, unless you’re happy where you live and don’t want to move. Then it will just go to the kids which at that point will get a step up to fair market value and they can sell it for no gains.

 

[530RL]

Yep, unless you’re happy where you live and don’t want to move. Then it will just go to the kids which at that point will get a step up to fair market value and they can sell it for no gains.

If they don’t renew the doubling of the estate tax exemption after 25 and houses keep rising, the kids may get a step up and no capital gains, but the house will eat up one persons estate tax exemption.

 

[2Driver]

Things can look ok but change in just months. You have to keep an eye on the numbers, Sky isn't falling but things are changing

Rio Verde in N Scottsdale was the canary in the coal mine in 2007

Rio Verde now



All of Phx metro: 50% increase in listings on the market since summer

 

[NicPaus]

Going to another one today in Redondo. Clients are in escrow this time. Last one they didn't get a counter offer with a full price cash offer. Needs a lot of work from the home inspection report they sent.

Was at another one yesterday the tenant is looking to buy. Was showing me 1 in Lawndale for only 525. Fixer but 100k less than I thought it would be.

 

[angiebaby]

Things can look ok but change in just months. You have to keep an eye on the numbers, Sky isn't falling but things are changing

Rio Verde in N Scottsdale was the canary in the coal mine in 2007

Rio Verde now

View attachment 1339779

All of Phx metro: 50% increase in listings on the market since summer


View attachment 1339780

This chart is kind of difficult to read without the information at the bottom. Does it go Feb to Feb? If so, that looks pretty normal. Maybe no one purchases homes in Phoenix area in the summer for some weird reason

 

[2Driver]

This chart is kind of difficult to read without the information at the bottom. Does it go Feb to Feb? If so, that looks pretty normal. Maybe no one purchases homes in Phoenix area in the summer for some weird reason

Fixed it

 

[HNL2LHC]

This chart is kind of difficult to read without the information at the bottom. Does it go Feb to Feb? If so, that looks pretty normal. Maybe no one purchases homes in Phoenix area in the summer for some weird reason

They are out enjoying the weather since that is the best time in AZ. :looking:

 

[regor]

US New Home Sales Disappoint In January, Median Prices At 2 Year Lows As Supply Jumps | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[mesquito_creek]

When “kids” inherit the family home, under most circumstances they are probably in their 60s… so let’s not hope that’s how they are planning on getting their first home.

I also should be in my 60s, maybe my 70s… when my parents die and that’s probably not the time to dip the toes into the water of landlording. Simple step up in basis via the family trust and liquidate everything and pay taxes. Let my kids work out of our trust to deal with it second hand.

Transfer of generational wealth and the USA is the best place in the world to demonstrate how it’s done.

 

[shintoooo]

https://x.com/burrytracker/status/1762881794724999204

 

[hallett21]

https://x.com/burrytracker/status/1762881794724999204

Ahhh Mr. Burry lol. Wrong till he’s not. He’s gotta be batting 1% at this point lol.

Can’t argue what he posted though.

 

[shintoooo]

The condo we helped our son buy in April of 2019 at $360K, two doors down they listed one for $509K last week and it lasted 4 days on the market and it's in escrow now. He's excited because he's got $200K in equity now and will help him buy his future house.

 

[Orange Juice]

Real estate is getting hot again here. Bidding wars starting again. House around my area just sold $80K over asking at $752/sq ft. Nuts!!

You only live once

 

[hallett21]

The condo we helped our son buy in April of 2019 at $360K, two doors down they listed one for $509K last week and it lasted 4 days on the market and it's in escrow now. He's excited because he's got $200K in equity now and will help him buy his future house.

Does it pencil as a rental?

 

[Runs2rch]

The condo we helped our son buy in April of 2019 at $360K, two doors down they listed one for $509K last week and it lasted 4 days on the market and it's in escrow now. He's excited because he's got $200K in equity now and will help him buy his future house.

Yes and no, because a step up will be 1-1.2 Mil. Yesterday's 500k home is now a million.

 

[shintoooo]

Does it pencil as a rental?

Yeah but they're not ready to move yet. His wife is due in May and it's a nice 2 bedroom condo so they're staying put. They're happy where they are and are not looking for additional expenses right now lol.

 

[shintoooo]

Yes and no, because a step up will be 1-1.2 Mil. Yesterday's 500k home is now a million.

Yeah, they're not moving. It's just a thought that goes through his head as a 26 year old lol.

 

[caribbean20]

Simple step up in basis via the family trust and liquidate everything and pay taxes.

You probably know this already, but you get a step up in basis on ALL assets inherited, not just the stuff in the family trust. There’s almost never any taxes paid, unless stuff appreciates further after inheritance, unless, of course, the estate exceeds $13MM, under current law.

IRC Section 1014.

Sadly just went through this with both sets of parents.

 

[angiebaby]

Did you see the proposed law to help illegals with the 20% down for first-time homebuyers? They are already doing it for some folks (limited supply of these opportunities, something like 2500 of them), but now they want to extend it "regardless of immigration status." It'll pass, guaranteed. There was no opposition to free healthcare and free college for them in CA, why would this be any different?

LA Times article today.

 

[El Rojo]

Did you see the proposed law to help illegals with the 20% down for first-time homebuyers? They are already doing it for some folks (limited supply of these opportunities, something like 2500 of them), but now they want to extend it "regardless of immigration status." It'll pass, guaranteed. There was no opposition to free healthcare and free college for them in CA, why would this be any different?

LA Times article today.

Even if they did help out with 20% of the down, who's gonna lend them the other $800,000?...sounds like more of political huffing and puffing...

 

[angiebaby]

Even if they did help out with 20% of the down, who's gonna lend them the other $800,000?...sounds like more of political huffing and puffing...

They aren't buying a million-dollar home. They are buying this or this, and are happy to do so. Also, this is statewide, not just the greater LA area. So, Tulare, Indio, Palmdale, Red Bluff, etc.

 

[Englewood]

They aren't buying a million-dollar home. They are buying this or this, and are happy to do so. Also, this is statewide, not just the greater LA area. So, Tulare, Indio, Palmdale, Red Bluff, etc.

They still have to qualify. Without 2yrs of steady employment, they aren’t buying anything.

 

[regor]

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In Recent History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month​

The Biden Department Of Propaganda has hit it out of the park with this one.

FRI MAR 8, AT 10:30 AM

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K, a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

 

[regor]

50 different mass layoffs that we have seen recently…

1. Everybuddy: 100% of workforce
2. Wisense: 100% of workforce
3. CodeSee: 100% of workforce
4. Twig: 100% of workforce
5. Twitch: 35% of workforce
6. Roomba: 31% of workforce
7. Bumble: 30% of workforce
8. Farfetch: 25% of workforce
9. Away: 25% of workforce
10. Hasbro: 20% of workforce
11. LA Times: 20% of workforce
12. Wint Wealth: 20% of workforce
13. Finder: 17% of workforce
14. Spotify: 17% of workforce
15. Buzzfeed: 16% of workforce
16. Levi’s: 15% of workforce
17. Xerox: 15% of workforce
18. Qualtrics: 14% of workforce
19. Wayfair: 13% of workforce
20. Duolingo: 10% of workforce
21. Rivian: 10% of workforce
22. Washington Post: 10% of workforce
23. Snap: 10% of workforce
24. eBay: 9% of workforce
25. Sony Interactive: 8% of workforce
26. Expedia: 8% of workforce
27. Business Insider: 8% of workforce
28. Instacart: 7% of workforce
29. Paypal: 7% of workforce
30. Okta: 7% of workforce
31. Charles Schwab: 6% of workforce
32. Docusign: 6% of workforce
33. Riskified: 6% of workforce
34. EA: 5% of workforce
35. Motional: 5% of workforce
36. Mozilla: 5% of workforce
37. Vacasa: 5% of workforce
38. CISCO: 5% of workforce
39. UPS: 2% of workforce
40. Nike: 2% of workforce
41. Blackrock: 3% of workforce
42. Paramount: 3% of workforce
43. Citigroup: 20,000 employees
44. ThyssenKrupp: 5,000 employees
45. Best Buy: 3,500 employees
46. Barry Callebaut: 2,500 employees
47. Outback Steakhouse: 1,000
48. Northrop Grumman: 1,000 employees
49. Pixar: 1,300 employees
50. Perrigo: 500 employees

"We Will Have A Hard Landing At Some Point. I Guarantee You That..." | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com