For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[Cdog]

Nice.

Full auto? How long did it take to get?

Cans & SBR’s. 2-8 months. Quite a few stamps

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Cliff notes: Things are not looking good for the "You will not own anything and be happy" crowd.

 

[hallett21]

Cliff notes: Things are not looking good for the "You will not own anything and be happy" crowd.

Interesting that they’ve gone from 3% vacancies to 17%.

I wonder how their profits have done, given that rent has increased across the board.

 

[Englewood]

Interesting that they’ve gone from 3% vacancies to 17%.

I wonder how their profits have done, given that rent has increased across the board.

The rental market is changing. My wife had a vacancy that was leased at $3,000/mo last year and now $2,800 and no action yet...People are watching every penny.

 

[hallett21]

The rental market is changing. My wife had a vacancy that was leased at $3,000/mo last year and now $2,800 and no action yet...People are watching every penny.

Any idea what it was renting for in 2018-2019?

 

[Englewood]

Any idea what it was renting for in 2018-2019?

I’ll ask her. Not sure if she managed it then but I bet it was close to $2000 as rents shot up during COVID.

 

[hallett21]

I’ll ask her. Not sure if she managed it then but I bet it was close to $2000 as rents shot up during COVID.

I think it’s just interesting when you look back on the numbers.

I’d bet a lot of these properties were profitable in 17, 18, 19. And if the owners held them then they are incredibly profitable today. Even if the land lord needs to back off the rent a little bit.

Now if you bought in 22-23, you may be right on the line for profitability. I just cannot believe that very many multi door owners sold between 2019 and now. Rates were just too cheap.

 

[shintoooo]

I think it’s just interesting when you look back on the numbers.

I’d bet a lot of these properties were profitable in 17, 18, 19. And if the owners held them then they are incredibly profitable today. Even if the land lord needs to back off the rent a little bit.

Now if you bought in 22-23, you may be right on the line for profitability. I just cannot believe that very many multi door owners sold between 2019 and now. Rates were just too cheap.

I was looking at VRBO's for Super Cat Fest and Desert Storm weekend and there are so many homes available for rent and they are cheap even compared to 2016-2019.

 

[hallett21]

I was looking at VRBO's for Super Cat Fest and Desert Storm weekend and there are so many homes available for rent and they are cheap even compared to 2016-2019.

We were getting over $600 a night back in the 2020 era. And that was stupid lol. 3/3 with a bonus room, no pool, no garage access and no problem renting it.

We’ve gone back to just snow bird rentals.

Edit. But it could rent for 1/3 of that a night and still pencil 6-7 nights a week. No ones getting the big money anymore but I wonder how many home are “still profitable”.

 

[EmpirE231]

I think it’s just interesting when you look back on the numbers.

I’d bet a lot of these properties were profitable in 17, 18, 19. And if the owners held them then they are incredibly profitable today. Even if the land lord needs to back off the rent a little bit.

Now if you bought in 22-23, you may be right on the line for profitability. I just cannot believe that very many multi door owners sold between 2019 and now. Rates were just too cheap.

Factor in the property tax and insurance increases over those years, along w/ the gardener and pool guy increase etc.

Some landlords can find themselves in a pinch of rents drop too much.

 

[Orange Juice]

 

[PaPaG]

Cliff notes: Things are not looking good for the "You will not own anything and be happy" crowd.

Signs of the times, 3% to 17% for roughly 10,000 units tells a huge story. I read a report yesterday that says to own a home in California now a couple has to make 220K plus a year, when it used to be 125k just a short time ago. This is copied in almost every overpriced city in the nation. Something is going to break.

 

[hallett21]

Signs of the times, 3% to 17% for roughly 10,000 units tells a huge story. I read a report yesterday that says to own a home in California now a couple has to make 220K plus a year, when it used to be 125k just a short time ago. This is copied in almost every overpriced city in the nation. Something is going to break.

I’m more concerned that it’s been an extreme wealth shift. For instance, if you bought 10 condos when you needed to make 80k to afford one unit. Now you need to make 160k to own the same condo. As the owner of 10 units you not only have the rental income, but also the equity to borrow against and buy more units.

Even if your vacancy went from 1 unit to 3 units I bet with inflation and rental demand the properties would still cash flow.

Obviously the numbers would need to work and location is everything.

Everyone got so used to making 100% profits on real estate during covid. Now 10-20% seems like chump change lol.

 

[hallett21]

Signs of the times, 3% to 17% for roughly 10,000 units tells a huge story. I read a report yesterday that says to own a home in California now a couple has to make 220K plus a year, when it used to be 125k just a short time ago. This is copied in almost every overpriced city in the nation. Something is going to break.

Or how many landlords did what you did and sold their properties (say the 30-50% of the “losers” on their balance sheet)?

You could sit on the cash or maybe pay off any remaining debt on your killer rental properties. Now you have an insanely insulated (paid off) portfolio that you can borrow against if values dip. And now you’d probably never sell the property lol.

 

[HNL2LHC]

We have had our first rental for about 20 years. Wow, that went fast. In 08/09 we had to drop our rent from $2400 to $1800 to keep it occupied. That is just what you have to do from time to time. The reason that it was at $2400 is the tenant was so bad that we jacked it every time we were able be cause we wanted them out. We raise rents minimally if they are good to work with. The problem is that most don’t understand this and really that is why they are renting to begin with…..

 

[stillhustlin]

285 Sierra Woods Dr, Sierra Madre, CA 91024 | Zillow

285 Sierra Woods Dr, Sierra Madre CA, is a Single Family home that contains 3242 sq ft and was built in 1985.It contains 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms.This home last sold for $2,480,000 in March 2024. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $2,519,100, which has decreased by $8,116 in the last 30...

www.zillow.com

This is a fun one at $500k over ask. Everything in Sierra Madre has been going over ask including townhomes if you look at 2024 sales. Supposedly getting gentrified by West Siders.

 

[Havasu blue label]

285 Sierra Woods Dr, Sierra Madre, CA 91024 | Zillow

285 Sierra Woods Dr, Sierra Madre CA, is a Single Family home that contains 3242 sq ft and was built in 1985.It contains 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms.This home last sold for $2,480,000 in March 2024. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $2,519,100, which has decreased by $8,116 in the last 30...

www.zillow.com

This is a fun one at $500k over ask. Everything in Sierra Madre has been going over ask including townhomes if you look at 2024 sales. Supposedly getting gentrified by West Siders.

Yes and Pasadena and Arcadia and San Marino those area will always sell

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Something is going to break.

I'm sad to say I tend to agree. I'm not sure what that means, but it seems like a significant shift is in motion, and I'm not sure people will accept it when the middle class starts falling into the poverty pit.

Hopelessness tends to make people do irrational things. The glue that holds together our social contract is the dream of a better life. The boiling frog is gonna jump if we keep turning up the heat.

This is further proof to me that no matter how you plan for the future, or what chess moves you make, the past does not offer a clear path forward. We can all sit here and make predictions, but none of us has a crystal ball.

 

[PaPaG]

I'm sad to say I tend to agree. I'm not sure what that means, but it seems like a significant shift is in motion, and I'm not sure people will accept it when the middle class starts falling into the poverty pit.

Hopelessness tends to make people do irrational things. The glue that holds together our social contract is the dream of a better life. The boiling frog is gonna jump if we keep turning up the heat.

This is further proof to me that no matter how you plan for the future, or what chess moves you make, the past does not offer a clear path forward. We can all sit here and make predictions, but none of us has a crystal ball.

100% agree. Someone can be king of prediction and investment one year and the next year they are losing their asses, happens all the time. I can bet most of us here on RD have experienced the good/bad ups and downs more than a few times and hopefully most have learned how to hedge against the downs and draw and bank when up.

 

[EmpirE231]

we hit the local Habit for lunch on a regular basis... to where the manager and cashier knows our order. Today the manager lets us know prices are going up next week. He said due to the new $20/hr wage going into effect. He said they have cut a lot of staff and running on skeleton crews. Kiosks going in next week. Said most people only get 3-4 Hours per day due to the new hourly. Will be interesting to see what this does to overall prices & service going forward.

 

[attitude]

we hit the local Habit for lunch on a regular basis... to where the manager and cashier knows our order. Today the manager lets us know prices are going up next week. He said due to the new $20/hr wage going into effect. He said they have cut a lot of staff and running on skeleton crews. Kiosks going in next week. Said most people only get 3-4 Hours per day due to the new hourly. Will be interesting to see what this does to overall prices & service going forward.

Funny enough, my fiancée works at Panera and she only works 20-25 hours a week now. Her position was 40+ before covid and has been dropping since. Because she is a baker the amount of time needed to do her job also decreases as people eat out less.

 

[PlanB]

San Diego Unified and another school district in the area just announced layoffs due to Covid money running out. You have to wonder how much this economy is still being propped up by government monies related to Covid.

 

[EmpirE231]

San Diego Unified and another school district in the area just announced layoffs due to Covid money running out. You have to wonder how much this economy is still being propped up by government monies related to Covid.

but where will all those migrants go to school?

 

[evantwheeler]

Cliff notes: Things are not looking good for the "You will not own anything and be happy" crowd.

How can low labor participation rate AND low unemployment be used in the same sentence, like they are two different things? Wouldn't these two things be the inverse of each other? High labor participation = low unemployment and low labor participation = high unemployment? No?

San Diego Unified and another school district in the area just announced layoffs due to Covid money running out. You have to wonder how much this economy is still being propped up by government monies related to Covid.

Another thing that makes no sense. With no in person teaching during Covid, I can't imagine they increased personnel count during covid? Schools are funded by attendance. The only thing Covid money should have done is help cover disruptions from transition from in person to tele-schooling, and back to in-person. What do they need covid money for post covid? It sounds to me like they're blaming covid for other shortcomings in management, just like everyone else has across every sector. In my experience, "due to covid" became a synonym for "we cannot perform because we suck, we don't care, and you just have to deal with our shitty or non-existent service".

 

[Cole Trickle]

but where will all those migrants go to school?

same place with half the staff and more kids per classroom.

 

[PlanB]

How can low labor participation rate AND low unemployment be used in the same sentence, like they are two different things? Wouldn't these two things be the inverse of each other? High labor participation = low unemployment and low labor participation = high unemployment? No?

Another thing that makes no sense. With no in person teaching during Covid, I can't imagine they increased personnel count during covid? Schools are funded by attendance. The only thing Covid money should have done is help cover disruptions from transition from in person to tele-schooling, and back to in-person. What do they need covid money for post covid? It sounds to me like they're blaming covid for other shortcomings in management, just like everyone else has across every sector. In my experience, "due to covid" became a synonym for "we cannot perform because we suck, we don't care, and you just have to deal with our shitty or non-existent service".

Here is an article talking about this subject.

California Schools Gained Billions During COVID-19. Now the Money is Running Out

Low-income schools that got the most in federal pandemic relief money may be hardest hit when the funds expire.

www.the74million.org

"Meanwhile, federal COVID relief funding for schools will end in September. In a series of grants known as Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief, the federal government gave California schools $23.4 billion to pay for everything from air purifiers to after-school tutoring."

 

[RVRKID]

we hit the local Habit for lunch on a regular basis... to where the manager and cashier knows our order. Today the manager lets us know prices are going up next week. He said due to the new $20/hr wage going into effect. He said they have cut a lot of staff and running on skeleton crews. Kiosks going in next week. Said most people only get 3-4 Hours per day due to the new hourly. Will be interesting to see what this does to overall prices & service going forward.

Sandwich, Chips and Large Drink at Jimmy Johns today was $17.60, Chili's lunch specials run about $14 with a drink. Fast food is getting crazy.

 

[petie6464]

Jobs are starting to slow, debt at the highest level in history...lets see what the year brings. NO ONE has made OR Lost a PENNY on their house unless they have sold, high desired areas will always hold out the longest but check out the rest of the country... the wind has started...time will tell if history repeats itself or not.

Election year; Like them all nothing much is going to happen till after that. Then either a reprieve from insanity and a massive uplift or a continued slow moving implosion..

 

[angiebaby]

How can low labor participation rate AND low unemployment be used in the same sentence, like they are two different things? Wouldn't these two things be the inverse of each other? High labor participation = low unemployment and low labor participation = high unemployment? No?

When people exit the labor market (stop looking for work) they are no longer counted in the unemployment rate. Very convenient for government statisticians. They did not do this during the Great Depression when unemployment was recorded at 25-30%. People on welfare, for example, are not considered unemployed. They are not participating in the labor market. So what they are saying is the actual number of people participating in the labor market has dropped. They have decided to get a side-hustle, or public aid, or mooch off mom & dad or granny.

 

[shintoooo]

Everything is going to keep going up until the election is over and then shit will hit the fan. They are flooding the real estate, stock, and crypto markets with money and artificially raising the prices of these assets so people will feel like they are worth something and will want to vote for the status quo (Biden) as to not rock the boat, because hey, this all happened under Biden (sarcasm).

If you're going to try and time it, I would list your house for sale in July-August and hope to close escrow by October and then sit back and watch the shit show. If Biden gets elected, he's going to destroy all these markets because he doesn't give a shit about reelection. If Trump gets elected, he's going to destroy these markets as well because he doesn't give a shit about reelection. So either way, after the election, it's lose lose!!

I'm just throwing different ideas out there. This is just my opinion. If you don't agree, you'll get banned until after the election!!

 

[attitude]

Funny but sad lol

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[hallett21]

Funny but sad lol

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I wonder how “slick” the self checkout has gotten lol.

I’ve seen wild stuff at Home Depot. Ironically Lowe’s is set up to handle the theft.

 

[angiebaby]

I wonder how “slick” the self checkout has gotten lol.

I’ve seen wild stuff at Home Depot. Ironically Lowe’s is set up to handle the theft.

Yes. They pad the prices of everything to cover the shrinkage. So all of us law-abiding people pay for the others to get free stuff. They don't even attempt to stop them. I saw a bum load up his jacket pockets with batteries and walk out at HD one day. I told the clerk and he just shrugged.

 

[Cdog]

Funny but sad lol

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That’s definitely Costco

 

[NicPaus]

Yes. They pad the prices of everything to cover the shrinkage. So all of us law-abiding people pay for the others to get free stuff. They don't even attempt to stop them. I saw a bum load up his jacket pockets with batteries and walk out at HD one day. I told the clerk and he just shrugged.

Now at HD the cart will stop in its tracks. Happened to me. I was like WTF. They used a remote and it unlocked. They told me I was not at self check out long enough. It stops people from filling cart and walking right out.

 

[PlanB]

Yes. They pad the prices of everything to cover the shrinkage. So all of us law-abiding people pay for the others to get free stuff. They don't even attempt to stop them. I saw a bum load up his jacket pockets with batteries and walk out at HD one day. I told the clerk and he just shrugged.

I talked to a HD employee recently when I was buying a tool that he had to unlock for me. He said they are not even allowed to take pictures of suspects anymore as they are stealing items and leaving the store. They just lock up as much as possible to attempt to make it harder to steal certain items. It ridiculous.

 

[attitude]

I wonder how “slick” the self checkout has gotten lol.

I’ve seen wild stuff at Home Depot. Ironically Lowe’s is set up to handle the theft.

I can only imagine lol

 

[4Waters]

Now at HD the cart will stop in its tracks. Happened to me. I was like WTF. They used a remote and it unlocked. They told me I was not at self check out long enough. It stops people from filling cart and walking right out.

So you get red flagged because you are efficient? Probably more efficient than their own checkers

 

[hallett21]

I’ve watched guys roll out drywall and 20 2x6s lol.

It’s ridiculous.

 

[shintoooo]

Lmao

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[bentprops]

How can low labor participation rate AND low unemployment be used in the same sentence, like they are two different things? Wouldn't these two things be the inverse of each other? High labor participation = low unemployment and low labor participation = high unemployment? No?

Another thing that makes no sense. With no in person teaching during Covid, I can't imagine they increased personnel count during covid? Schools are funded by attendance. The only thing Covid money should have done is help cover disruptions from transition from in person to tele-schooling, and back to in-person. What do they need covid money for post covid? It sounds to me like they're blaming covid for other shortcomings in management, just like everyone else has across every sector. In my experience, "due to covid" became a synonym for "we cannot perform because we suck, we don't care, and you just have to deal with our shitty or non-existent service".

Smoke and mirrors

 

[bentprops]

Interesting that they’ve gone from 3% vacancies to 17%.

I wonder how their profits have done, given that rent has increased across the board.

Thats not what he said, evictions and skip outs are up to 17% He never mentioned his vacancy rate.

 

[PaPaG]

I hate Thief's! I was at Sam's Club a few days ago and watched a guy walk out with a shopping cart through the entrance doors past staff and they did nothing. Pisses me off the honest folks have to pay for these Pieces of Shit Actions.

 

[Done-it-again]

I hate Thief's! I was at Sam's Club a few days ago and watched a guy walk out with a shopping cart through the entrance doors past staff and they did nothing. Pisses me off the honest folks have to pay for these Pieces of Shit Actions.

We do this all the time. Scan and go is the shit.

 

[PaPaG]

We do this all the time. Scan and go is the shit.

Problem is he did not do Scan and Go, we do that as well at times, he walked out and an associate just looked at him and I said What the F out the entrance and she shrugged and mumbled "Nothing we can do"

 

[cofooter]

Problem is he did not do Scan and Go, we do th qtyat as well at times, he walked out and an associate just looked at him and I said What the F out the entrance and she shrugged and mumbled "Nothing we can do"

Yet everyone else needs to wait in line while they check their receipt vs their groceries

 

[RVRKID]

I heard Walmart might be shutting down self check outs because people are scanning $1.99 powdered punch bar code in front of the bar code on diapers and so on. These people come up with such great ideas knowing about all the crime in this country.

 

[evantwheeler]

I’ve watched guys roll out drywall and 20 2x6s lol.

It’s ridiculous.

Should have put a 16 penny in each of their tires as they loaded their truck. Fuck thieves.

 

[Mr. C]

but where will all those migrants go to school?

And get their free breakfasts, lunches and dinners. Weekends included.

 

[angiebaby]

And get their free breakfasts, lunches and dinners. Weekends included.

and spring and summer break