For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[jet496]

The good thing about the higher rates right now is, in my opinion, it's keeping the prices under control. I think when they do drop rates, prices will go up, not to mention there's millions of people just waiting on the sidelines for the rate drops, meaning inventory will only get scarcer. There's an old saying "Marry the house, and date the rate". You can always refinance.

 

[attitude]

Since you’ve now defined that you were talking about the nation all this time, here is the graph for the national price average over the last 5 years. People can decide for themselves if the market tanked or not.

At the very worst in the last 3 years the market fluctuated less than 10%, and as of this moment we look to be down 5% off the mid 2022 peak.

Taking rates into account, anyone financing was better off buying 18 months to 24 months ago, and not sitting on the sidelines.


View attachment 1325705

And zoomed in to the last 3 years.

View attachment 1325706

Adjusting for inflation we still have another 10% to drop to get to 2019 pricing. Obviously very market dependent when you dive into different areas.

I doubt non adjusted pricing will ever reach 2019 again.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

The good thing about the higher rates right now is, in my opinion, it's keeping the prices under control. I think when they do drop rates, prices will go up, not to mention there's millions of people just waiting on the sidelines for the rate drops, meaning inventory will only get scarcer. There's an old saying "Marry the house, and date the rate". You can always refinance.

Yep. Any guesses what’s going to happen once they start dropping rates later this year?

 

[attitude]

Yep. Any guesses what’s going to happen once they start dropping rates later this year?

Well if the fed dropped rates in the proper way the economy would already be heading for a downturn. However, it’s an election year and all bets are off, I don’t believe we are ready to drop rates but we all know the fed will.

 

[El Rojo]

Yep. Any guesses what’s going to happen once they start dropping rates later this year?

I say mortgage rates don't change much but I think you're on to something LOF, I think RDP needs a predictions of 2024 thread, if there isn't one already...

 

[ChumpChange]

The good thing about the higher rates right now is, in my opinion, it's keeping the prices under control. I think when they do drop rates, prices will go up, not to mention there's millions of people just waiting on the sidelines for the rate drops, meaning inventory will only get scarcer. There's an old saying "Marry the house, and date the rate". You can always refinance.

Keeping prices under control by locking homeowners with low rates into their houses and keeping inventory low. Cause and effect. There’s so many things involved in housing that no one can define it by looking at a small piece of the puzzle.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I say mortgage rates don't change much but I think you're on to something LOF, I think RDP needs a predictions of 2024 thread, if there isn't one already...

It’s an election year. Rates will drop from where they are now.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Well if the fed dropped rates in the proper way the economy would already be heading for a downturn. However, it’s an election year and all bets are off, I don’t believe we are ready to drop rates but we all know the fed will.

It never works fighting the fed.

 

[El Rojo]

It’s an election year. Rates will drop from where they are now.

yes, but nothing close to what we saw in late 2020, not anywhere close...I'm saying 5.5-5.7 ...

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

yes, but nothing close to what we saw in late 2020, not anywhere close...I'm saying 5.5-5.7 ...

No you are not seeing those rates again for a decade, if ever again. Those rates were not normal.

 

[El Rojo]

No you are not seeing those rates again for a decade, if ever again. Those rates were not normal.

Pick a number then...

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Pick a number then...

Pick a number for what?

I don’t care what rate mortgages drop to. They have already started moving lower.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Pick a number for what?

I don’t care what rate mortgages drop to. They have already started moving lower.

Ha ha, C'Mon Man, point at the fence Babe Ruth.

 

[hallett21]

If I had to guess I say the Fed drops rates a 1/4 percent at a time. It would be possible to see high 5s by EOY. Anything more aggressive than that is gonna cause a run away train.

 

[hallett21]

Mortgage Rates Expected to Dip Below 6 Percent in 2024, Boosting Home Sales | Fannie Mae

The housing market is expected to begin a gradual return to a more normal balance in 2024, following years of significant oscillations in mortgage rates and divergences of key housing market measures from their historical, pre-pandemic relationships, according to the January 2024 commentary from...

www.fanniemae.com

 

[hallett21]

Here is a screen shot from the WSJ.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Ha ha, C'Mon Man, point at the fence Babe Ruth.

If you’ve learned nothing from this slow motion train wreck of a thread.. that should be it

 

[Havasu blue label]

yes, but nothing close to what we saw in late 2020, not anywhere close...I'm saying 5.5-5.7 ...

I could see that rate real soon

 

[Englewood]

My prediction…

FHA/VA will be low 5’s by Election Day.

 

[hallett21]

My prediction…

FHA/VA will be low 5’s by Election Day.

Typically what’s the spread between those and just a standard 30 yr?

 

[530RL]

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/...ite-decade-high-mortgage-rates-165950556.html

 

[hallett21]

This one sold in the same neighborhood my mom has a rental in. They’re currently being assed an extra 7k a year for insurance due to CA fires. On top of the $600 a month HOA.

Funny how Redfin says it’s worth 100k less. I’ve noticed the Redfin algorithm doing this all over So Cal. But Zillow hasn’t changed more than 1-3% on the same properties.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Westlake-Village/5621-Roundtree-Pl-91362/home/4686096

 

[DrunkenSailor]

There's some talk that the fed needs to lower rates so it doesn't default on its national debt... That thought gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling...

 

[RiverDave]

Well I'm not going to present a bunch of charts and theories.. I can only tell you what I observe personally. Havasu RE is back on fire again.. Stacy put 3 in escrow yesterday, and is on the hunt for a bunch more right now aka Early Mornings and Late nights. The rest of the team is quite busy as well.. I drop a golf cart off once a week for one of our newer agents so she can pound the pavement. We have had to reschedule the last two weeks because she was either out showing houses, writing offers, or the place I was gonna drop it off was put in escrow (today's reschedule).

RD

 

[Havasu blue label]

Well I'm not going to present a bunch of charts and theories.. I can only tell you what I observe personally. Havasu RE is back on fire again.. Stacy put 3 in escrow yesterday, and is on the hunt for a bunch more right now aka Early Mornings and Late nights. The rest of the team is quite busy as well.. I drop a golf cart off once a week for one of our newer agents so she can pound the pavement. We have had to reschedule the last two weeks because she was either out showing houses, writing offers, or the place I was gonna drop it off was put in escrow (today's reschedule).

RD

What price range

 

[HNL2LHC]

RDP

Well I'm not going to present a bunch of charts and theories.. I can only tell you what I observe personally. Havasu RE is back on fire again.. Stacy put 3 in escrow yesterday, and is on the hunt for a bunch more right now aka Early Mornings and Late nights. The rest of the team is quite busy as well.. I drop a golf cart off once a week for one of our newer agents so she can pound the pavement. We have had to reschedule the last two weeks because she was either out showing houses, writing offers, or the place I was gonna drop it off was put in escrow (today's reschedule).

RD

Good to hear of movement Dave.

 

[stillhustlin]

Well I'm not going to present a bunch of charts and theories.. I can only tell you what I observe personally. Havasu RE is back on fire again.. Stacy put 3 in escrow yesterday, and is on the hunt for a bunch more right now aka Early Mornings and Late nights. The rest of the team is quite busy as well.. I drop a golf cart off once a week for one of our newer agents so she can pound the pavement. We have had to reschedule the last two weeks because she was either out showing houses, writing offers, or the place I was gonna drop it off was put in escrow (today's reschedule).

RD

Have you been seeing the same amount of action in Bullhead and other surrounding areas or it is primarily just Havasu that is hot?

 

[EmpirE231]

Well I'm not going to present a bunch of charts and theories.. I can only tell you what I observe personally. Havasu RE is back on fire again.. Stacy put 3 in escrow yesterday, and is on the hunt for a bunch more right now aka Early Mornings and Late nights. The rest of the team is quite busy as well.. I drop a golf cart off once a week for one of our newer agents so she can pound the pavement. We have had to reschedule the last two weeks because she was either out showing houses, writing offers, or the place I was gonna drop it off was put in escrow (today's reschedule).

RD

Aare most buyers still CA transplants?

 

[Englewood]

Well I'm not going to present a bunch of charts and theories.. I can only tell you what I observe personally. Havasu RE is back on fire again.. Stacy put 3 in escrow yesterday, and is on the hunt for a bunch more right now aka Early Mornings and Late nights. The rest of the team is quite busy as well.. I drop a golf cart off once a week for one of our newer agents so she can pound the pavement. We have had to reschedule the last two weeks because she was either out showing houses, writing offers, or the place I was gonna drop it off was put in escrow (today's reschedule).

RD

My real estate company has went nuts since 1/1/24...We've had more new deals in the first 2 weeks of January than we did in November and December combined.

 

[NicPaus]

My Realtor is busy again also.

My Buddy with the real estate magazine just paid the printer. First edition he has put out in a year or more.

We are slammed with work. My first easy day today cause of the rain. Been putting in a lot of 14 hour days lately and few longer. Not enough hours in the day.

 

[shintoooo]

Lmao. Sad but true.

 

[530RL]

Today’s economic numbers

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-02-02/us-employment-report-for-january

 

[angiebaby]

My prediction…

FHA/VA will be low 5’s by Election Day.

I hope you are right, for our sake and that of our kids. I'd love to refinance our home for a lower rate (or switch to a 15-year) and have the kids buy the house they are currently renting from us. They would have to go FHA. They have great credit and income, but that down payment is a problem.

 

[ChumpChange]

Who loves a good roller coaster ride?

 

[Havasu Rehab]

Here's an interesting take. Essentially he says no crash, lower rates (potentially 3's in 2025 or 2026), inventory is down. Not ground breaking stuff that hasn't already been said on this thread.

 

[RiverDave]

I asked Stacy for an update yesterday and this is what she sent me. I’ll get the price ranges and other data today.

Team RDP week Recap
Jason -Wrightwood New Listing signed
Victoria- Havasu New Pocket Listing Signed 40x46 garage!
Jennifer Havasu -1 Buyer under contract
Stacy - Havasu - 1 listing under contract 1 sand lot closed, 1 new duplex listing going live
Carole - Havasu - 1 Buyer under contract another one with offers out
Ellen - Havasu - 1 Buyer under Contract
Ellen - Officially Team RDP/ St George! 1 Offer out in St George
Amy - 2 listings under contract 1 new Kingman Subdivision listing (working on finding a builder to purchase and have Team RDP List homes before it hits market)
Arlene - New Bullhead land listing coming soon

 

[Cdog]

Here's an interesting take. Essentially he says no crash, lower rates (potentially 3's in 2025 or 2026), inventory is down. Not ground breaking stuff that hasn't already been said on this thread.

I like this guy he gives a pretty well thought out explanation in language most people can understand but he has been wrong on how far and how much the current situation would correct. I think in order to predict what happens beyond the election is equivalent to asking a magic ball, and he should be more careful with attempting to predict what happens beyond the election.

 

[Havasu Rehab]

I like this guy he gives a pretty well thought out explanation in language most people can understand but he has been wrong on how far and how much the current situation would correct. I think in order to predict what happens beyond the election is equivalent to asking a magic ball, and he should be more careful with attempting to predict what happens beyond the election.

That's a valid point. I really don't think the rates will go back down to 3's though. Only time will tell.

 

[Havasu blue label]

Great news

 

[jet496]

I'm surprised that nobody talks about the fact that in the past, when people bought a new house they sold the one they were in, but most people, that I know anyway, have kept their homes & are renting them for a premium. This is a huge problem for inventory.

Also, there's real estate investment firms out there buying anything that's a good deal & keeping them as rentals.

All this, to me, is another huge factor in why the prices will remain high, Economics 101 which I learned in Economics class in the 8th grade, and boils down to "Supply & Demand". Low supply, high demand thus high prices.

 

[Orange Juice]

Powell this week on interest rates. Patience.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/04/economy/powell-interview-interest-rates-inflation/index.html

 

[NicPaus]

I went to a open house yesterday in Redondo. Holy shit it was busier than the drive thru at McDonald's. Needed about 300k in work. They had 6 offers by the time I got there at 2. Only 1.45 million. They had several full price offers sight unseen.

 

[regor]

Today’s economic numbers

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-02-02/us-employment-report-for-january

 

[Xtrmwakeboarder]

View attachment 1331114

Where is the any key?!

 

[evantwheeler]

.

Also, there's real estate investment firms out there buying anything that's a good deal & keeping them as rentals.

Can you back this up with data? Dont take that as a personal attack, im attacking this narrative that keeps getting repeated but i never see anything to substantiate the claims.

I am not in the real estate industry, but this just doesnt make sense to me for the SFH market. Condos, townhome communities, trailer parks, and appartments/buildings, sure, I can see where it makes sense for the larger investors. I just dont buy that big firms are snatching up even a fraction of available SFH’s. The numbers make no sense for cashflow.

Would love to hear from realators, how many SFH’s they sell to the big bad investment groups?

IMO, there is too much cost associated with SFH’s compared to the more square footage dense options of apartments, condos, and townhomes.

I dont think anyone in here is complaining they cant afford a condo. Everyone has much higher standards than that. No one wants to change their standards to what they can afford…..they want a nice house with a 1/2 acre and RV parking in a good neighborhood for $400k….

 

[regor]

Where is the any key?!

Take your pick…..

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In Recent History | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

or it would be if one didn't think of checking how the average rose: well, it turns out that, since average hourly earnings is a fraction, it did not rise due to a jump in actual wages but - since it is earnings over a period of time - "rose" because the BLS decided to sharply slash the number of estimated hours that everyone was working, from 34.3 to just 34.1, which may not sound like a lot until one realizes that the last time the workweek was this low was when the economy was shut down during covid.

 

[BHC Vic]

Take your pick…..

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In Recent History | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

This was posted at our delegates meeting yesterday. For some reason I instantly thought you would get a kick out of it. It’s was a hard meeting to sit through

 

[evantwheeler]

We (Americans) should also be really grateful for what we do have. Our neighbors to the North are in a much worse situation.

 

[shintoooo]

https://x.com/tictoctick/status/1754284427205587274

 

[regor]

This was posted at our delegates meeting yesterday. For some reason I instantly thought you would get a kick out of it. It’s was a hard meeting to sit through View attachment 1331121

2020 LMFAO……..