For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[RiverDave]

Glad it has, never want anyone to lose money BUT facts are facts and the writing on the wall is starting to show, some hot areas will always do well, take a look at the rest of the country fact after fact that things are slowing, prices are lowering, people don't want to sell due to interest and if we raise one more time just watch....maybe not in my 1.5 year time frame but it is coming. Now since your home has gone up in value lets see how long it takes to sell for that increase .....

Your one of those guys that does the rain dance until it rains.. then claims it rained because of the dance.. lol

I’m agreeing that things are slowing down across the board now.. but your initial predictions in this thread and the one before it were WILDLY inaccurate..

There has been quite a few members that I have talked too that held off buying because of this thread that are all now kicking themselves because of rate hikes and price hikes.

Hopefully there is some relief on both fronts in the future…. But if that happens it doesn’t mean your predictions are correct.. it just means it finally rained..

That said if they lower interest rates.. better put your hat on because it’s gonna go even higher.

 

[NicPaus]

So if a 4 million dollar property dropped 150k that's huge? That same property 6-10 years ago was 2.5. So I would say they are still way ahead. Unless they bought in the last year.

Still very little inventory here in the Southbay. Yes things are slowing down. But that is to be expected with 7.2 percent interest. If interest dropped to 3 even 4. Prices will not go down more likely up.

 

[riverroyal]

Houses we’re looking at are sitting longer and dropping. Definitely a slow down going on right now. These are significant reductions, no small discount. It’s finally starting to happen I’d say.

View attachment 1274901 View attachment 1274902

for every one that drops these minor percentages there are 2 that get sold for over asking. You're not seeing that info. The best locations have low to no inventory. These are still going up.

 

[Tank]

for every one that drops these minor percentages there are 2 that get sold for over asking. You're not seeing that info. The best locations have low to no inventory. These are still going up.

Yep, I know there’s houses still selling in a day. And I realize location is important (3 most important rules of real estate) Just seems to me (from looking at the havasu market every day for the past 5 years) I haven’t seen this many price reductions or homes sitting like this. I see it as a tell. It’s a sign is all. Maybe it’s a sign that the ceiling was hit and there’s a little reverb.

Im not arguing either way. Just what I noticed last couple months. I’ve been listening to “the sky is falling” ever since trump was elected and then all through his presidency and all through bidens. Never saw it. But the things I’m seeing now I’ve never seen in that time. I think the “gotta feeling” is turning into actual “signs”. Don’t think we’ll see a huge crash like 07/09 but slow turn down. I think it’s begun is all.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Yep, I know there’s houses still selling in a day. And I realize location is important (3 most important rules of real estate) Just seems to me (from looking at the havasu market every day for the past 5 years) I haven’t seen this many price reductions or homes sitting like this. I see it as a tell. It’s a sign is all. Maybe it’s a sign that the ceiling was hit and there’s a little reverb.

Im not arguing either way. Just what I noticed last couple months. I’ve been listening to “the sky is falling” ever since trump was elected and then all through his presidency and all through bidens. Never saw it. But the things I’m seeing now I’ve never seen in that time. I think the “gotta feeling” is turning into actual “signs”. Don’t think we’ll see a huge crash like 07/09 but slow turn down. I think it’s begun is all.

We’ve had a giant run up in Havasu the last 5 years. The 3-4 years before that things were actually pretty “normal” and there was pretty slow growth.

I agree things are starting to slow down price wise coupled with the normal seasonality of the market.

Just look through this thread, people said the same thing last September-October.

 

[PaPaG]

Your one of those guys that does the rain dance until it rains.. then claims it rained because of the dance.. lol

I’m agreeing that things are slowing down across the board now.. but your initial predictions in this thread and the one before it were WILDLY inaccurate..

There has been quite a few members that I have talked too that held off buying because of this thread that are all now kicking themselves because of rate hikes and price hikes.

Hopefully there is some relief on both fronts in the future…. But if that happens it doesn’t mean your predictions are correct.. it just means it finally rained..

That said if they lower interest rates.. better put your hat on because it’s gonna go even higher.

As you have said before when someone makes a stupid comment about you or your opinions, I will do the same. You have no clue who I am, what I know, what my education is, what the level of investment expertise I have or don't have so your rain dance comment is a fairly ignorant comment. According to the real estate sky's the limit folks the few that you have talked with that did not buy and are now kicking themselves shouldn't care according to all the real estate experts here because Havi is just going to go up and up and up so no real loss again according to the Havi cheerleaders. This is a country issue not just a Havi or Cali issue, I think the Naysayers are a bit ignorant if they think timelines cannot change and mine did several months ago when the data changed but facts remained in the same direction. I can guarantee one thing for sure, you or I are no where near as educated or savvy as so many in the financial world that have actual facts and feel that the housing market has been correcting for the last 6 months and have lots to go, once rates do what they are supposed to do by curbing inflation then slowly start to drop sometime in 2024 or 2025 to normalize we will see a bit of a rebound that is obvious but by then I can bet housing prices are going to do what the financial experts say they are going to do.

 

[PaPaG]

So if a 4 million dollar property dropped 150k that's huge? That same property 6-10 years ago was 2.5. So I would say they are still way ahead. Unless they bought in the last year.

Still very little inventory here in the Southbay. Yes things are slowing down. But that is to be expected with 7.2 percent interest. If interest dropped to 3 even 4. Prices will not go down more likely up.

I think any price home dropping 150k is huge, at least to me it is. And YES things are slowing and YES according to the high interest rates, of course exactly what I have been saying.
PS you made up some figures there, here is my exact quote: some active areas in Hot Spots in Cali where homes were 2.5 -4 million and have dropped 250-300k and more, if losing 100k-300k is not a hat holding incident I don't know what is. So 250k-300k or losing 100k-300k is what I said and it is a lot... I guess you So. Cal Ballers that is pocket change lol.

 

[Orange Juice]

Houses we’re looking at are sitting longer and dropping. Definitely a slow down going on right now. These are significant reductions, no small discount. It’s finally starting to happen I’d say.

View attachment 1274901 View attachment 1274902

$726 would scare me off.

 

[c_land]

This thread has become about the least serious thing on the site at this point.

But If anyone is still interested in a serious opinion, this interview has something for everyone:

 

[NicPaus]

I think any price home dropping 150k is huge, at least to me it is. And YES things are slowing and YES according to the high interest rates, of course exactly what I have been saying.
PS you made up some figures there, here is my exact quote: some active areas in Hot Spots in Cali where homes were 2.5 -4 million and have dropped 250-300k and more, if losing 100k-300k is not a hat holding incident I don't know what is. So 250k-300k or losing 100k-300k is what I said and it is a lot... I guess you So. Cal Ballers that is pocket change lol.

Not saying it's pocket change. But those houses have gone up so much a few hundred k is not a big deal to the owners. Unless they are planning to sell now. But making 1.5 on a house you bought 6 years ago instead of 1.8. You still are doing great.


Those owners if recently purchased are paying 250k a year in taxes. Unless doing a 1031 they are going to be paying big money on capital gains. With 3-4% interest doesn't make sense to sell Unless they have to.

 

[hallett21]

I think any price home dropping 150k is huge, at least to me it is. And YES things are slowing and YES according to the high interest rates, of course exactly what I have been saying.
PS you made up some figures there, here is my exact quote: some active areas in Hot Spots in Cali where homes were 2.5 -4 million and have dropped 250-300k and more, if losing 100k-300k is not a hat holding incident I don't know what is. So 250k-300k or losing 100k-300k is what I said and it is a lot... I guess you So. Cal Ballers that is pocket change lol.

But you’re only measuring the “loss” off of peak asking price.

To keep numbers simple if I paid 1 million in 2019, ask 1.5 in 2023 and close at 1.3. That’s still a healthy return in 4 years.

Of course there’s technically meat left on the bone but there’s way too many other factors in play (2020-21 Refi rate, rent after sale, cost of moving etc etc).

 

[PaPaG]

Not saying it's pocket change. But those houses have gone up so much a few hundred k is not a big deal to the owners. Unless they are planning to sell now. But making 1.5 on a house you bought 6 years ago instead of 1.8. You still are doing great.


Those owners if recently purchased are paying 250k a year in taxes. Unless doing a 1031 they are going to be paying big money on capital gains. With 3-4% interest doesn't make sense to sell Unless they have to.

I agree that the houses went way up that's a good thing for the investors but when they drop 100-300k trust me the folks that make that kind of money are not happy about losing that much, the more money they make the more they watch their money and try to limit their losses. And I also agree that making 1.5 vs 1.8 is still great but most including me would rather have the 1.8.

 

[PaPaG]

But you’re only measuring the “loss” off of peak asking price.

To keep numbers simple if I paid 1 million in 2019, ask 1.5 in 2023 and close at 1.3. That’s still a healthy return in 4 years.

Of course there’s technically meat left on the bone but there’s way too many other factors in play (2020-21 Refi rate, rent after sale, cost of moving etc etc). Agreed the return is still very healthy but there is still a loss from the former value.

 

[NicPaus]

I agree that the houses went way up that's a good thing for the investors but when they drop 100-300k trust me the folks that make that kind of money are not happy about losing that much, the more money they make the more they watch their money and try to limit their losses. And I also agree that making 1.5 vs 1.8 is still great but most including me would rather have the 1.8.

I hear ya. But there not losing it unless they planned to sell. I have been working on my GF house last few weeks. It was worth 3.8 last year. Now maybe 3.6. She doesn't care as it was never going to be sold. It's over 1.5 from 6 years ago. Which is great. But not worth selling and paying capital gains. When we are done with our 15k front yard remodel. Could probably sell for 3.8 again. Our ideas and time are making the curb appeal 100% improved.

 

[RiverDave]

As you have said before when someone makes a stupid comment about you or your opinions, I will do the same. You have no clue who I am, what I know, what my education is, what the level of investment expertise I have or don't have so your rain dance comment is a fairly ignorant comment. According to the real estate sky's the limit folks the few that you have talked with that did not buy and are now kicking themselves shouldn't care according to all the real estate experts here because Havi is just going to go up and up and up so no real loss again according to the Havi cheerleaders. This is a country issue not just a Havi or Cali issue, I think the Naysayers are a bit ignorant if they think timelines cannot change and mine did several months ago when the data changed but facts remained in the same direction. I can guarantee one thing for sure, you or I are no where near as educated or savvy as so many in the financial world that have actual facts and feel that the housing market has been correcting for the last 6 months and have lots to go, once rates do what they are supposed to do by curbing inflation then slowly start to drop sometime in 2024 or 2025 to normalize we will see a bit of a rebound that is obvious but by then I can bet housing prices are going to do what the financial experts say they are going to do.

I have a pretty good idea, and I don’t want you to read my post the wrong way. I know you have been very successful in investments and loans etc..

I wasn’t calling names or anything like that.. I’m just saying this thread and the preceding one provided a shit ton of doubt and a lot of people listened to it that now regret it because… and this is the more important part the predictions were 180 degrees off what happened.

You haven’t seen me predict house prices going up or down in these threads. I have seen the people chanting crash crash crash, as well as the others (like some in the mortgage industries?) saying up up up..

I don’t participate in either camp because I have absolutely no idea and it would be totally irresponsible of me to claim one way or the other having some ties to a RE company.

What I can say is for the last four or five years it would appear the up up up guys have been on the money.. if ya read my post for what it is, I’m saying who knows what happens next.. but if it slightly corrects or crashes.. the people in that camp will be the first to say I told ya so, completely ignoring the several years of gains.. hence the rain dance until it rains comment.

However.. if they drop the rates (which I suspect they probably will before the election?) then we can put the hats back on the hat rack for awhile..

While I keep my opinions to myself, I will share (between you and I) that I don’t disagree with you. I don’t know how this can sustain not only with houses but across the board with our society.. from hamburgers on up shit is out of control in terms of pricing.

But then again.. I’m the idiot that gave all my advertisers a 25% discount when Covid hit to be sympathetic to their causes because I thought it was over then. Looking back I shoulda charged everyone a 100+% more. Lol

As for what happens next? Who knows? I guess the real question is.. are things slowing down? If so by what metric? If we are measuring off Covid.. well that was insanity.. houses selling in minutes isn’t the norm in any market. Buying sight unseen and waiving appraisals and inspections for fear of missing out? Crazy town.

So are we measuring from 2008? 2011? Or 2019 before Covid?

Nothing in our lifetimes will ever come close to 2020-2022.. well unless they bring back king flu for a second time and shut down California.. If they do that there will be a second exodus…. While that would financially benefit me personally I am certainly hoping they don’t.. our little town has already changed considerably.



RD

 

[Looking Glass]

God help us if that happens.
If you think the country is fucked up now, just wait till Newsome turns the USA into San Francisc

Your one of those guys that does the rain dance until it rains.. then claims it rained because of the dance.. lol

I’m agreeing that things are slowing down across the board now.. but your initial predictions in this thread and the one before it were WILDLY inaccurate..

There has been quite a few members that I have talked too that held off buying because of this thread that are all now kicking themselves because of rate hikes and price hikes.

Hopefully there is some relief on both fronts in the future…. But if that happens it doesn’t mean your predictions are correct.. it just means it finally rained..

That said if they lower interest rates.. better put your hat on because it’s gonna go even higher.

"IF"

 

[RiverDave]

"IF"

Absolutely.. because “if” ya leave that word out (like so many do) then that changes things entirely

 

[PaPaG]

I have a pretty good idea, and I don’t want you to read my post the wrong way. I know you have been very successful in investments and loans etc..

I wasn’t calling names or anything like that.. I’m just saying this thread and the preceding one provided a shit ton of doubt and a lot of people listened to it that now regret it because… and this is the more important part the predictions were 180 degrees off what happened.

You haven’t seen me predict house prices going up or down in these threads. I have seen the people chanting crash crash crash, as well as the others (like some in the mortgage industries?) saying up up up..

I don’t participate in either camp because I have absolutely no idea and it would be totally irresponsible of me to claim one way or the other having some ties to a RE company.

What I can say is for the last four or five years it would appear the up up up guys have been on the money.. if ya read my post for what it is, I’m saying who knows what happens next.. but if it slightly corrects or crashes.. the people in that camp will be the first to say I told ya so, completely ignoring the several years of gains.. hence the rain dance until it rains comment.

However.. if they drop the rates (which I suspect they probably will before the election?) then we can put the hats back on the hat rack for awhile..

While I keep my opinions to myself, I will share (between you and I) that I don’t disagree with you. I don’t know how this can sustain not only with houses but across the board with our society.. from hamburgers on up shit is out of control in terms of pricing.

But then again.. I’m the idiot that gave all my advertisers a 25% discount when Covid hit to be sympathetic to their causes because I thought it was over then. Looking back I shoulda charged everyone a 100+% more. Lol

As for what happens next? Who knows? I guess the real question is.. are things slowing down? If so by what metric? If we are measuring off Covid.. well that was insanity.. houses selling in minutes isn’t the norm in any market. Buying sight unseen and waiving appraisals and inspections for fear of missing out? Crazy town.

So are we measuring from 2008? 2011? Or 2019 before Covid?

Nothing in our lifetimes will ever come close to 2020-2022.. well unless they bring back king flu for a second time and shut down California.. If they do that there will be a second exodus…. While that would financially benefit me personally I am certainly hoping they don’t.. our little town has already changed considerably.



RD

Nicely said. Cannot argue it.

 

[RVR SWPR]

Very shortly, biden will announce not running re election but will finish term. No doubt back room deal has been worked out.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

But you’re only measuring the “loss” off of peak asking price.

To keep numbers simple if I paid 1 million in 2019, ask 1.5 in 2023 and close at 1.3. That’s still a healthy return in 4 years.

Of course there’s technically meat left on the bone but there’s way too many other factors in play (2020-21 Refi rate, rent after sale, cost of moving etc etc). View attachment 1275106

So spin it the other way.. look at all the money that was lost not selling in Q2 of 2022.

Anyone who sold anything before then was a naysayer and ignorant of facts, amirite?



This premise is laughable.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Very shortly, biden will announce not running re election but will finish term. No doubt back room deal has been worked out.

Unless Joe and the Dr, give them the finger.

 

[THE WIDGE]

Rates are crazy stupid high, I just got a prequal yesterday just to see exactly what they are as I’ve been kicking it around now for a year. Jesus!!!! Conventional loan limits F-d Mohave Co. The limit was increased this year to $726,200, unfortunately I was quoted around 8.5% w 2 points. But a jumbo I’m at 7% with zero points, and today at 6.875% w zero. 600-900k you’re getting bent over if you put 20% down because of increase conventional limits. Something has to budge, houses are higher than 12 months ago and rates are 1.5% or more higher

 

[Englewood]

all the real estate experts here because Havi is just going to go up and up and up so no real loss again according to the Havi cheerleaders.

I don’t recall anyone saying that (although I’m not gonna go back 121 pages and check).

Honest question…will you be buying in Havasu (or anywhere else) once the dust settles?

Very shortly, biden will announce not running re election but will finish term. No doubt back room deal has been worked out.

I completely agree. You can see the tide changing. I think this is the most realistic situation. They are letting him fumble daily now.

 

[CarolynandBob]

It's tough to find the perfect place. I assume you guys will stay in TN?

Not sure, but probably not. We are very fortunate and do not have to make a decision any time soon. When this sells we are going to sit on the money for a little bit.

Our options we are considering:

1) Most likely spend a summer in Sarasota to see if we can handle the heat. Our biggest thing is we do not like to be bored. My wife loves the beaches there and going to the beach in the mornings when it is cooler is something she will want to do. Then in the afternoons we could open up the wood shop and the stain glass shop at our resort and work on fun stuff there. (Our resort has a very impressive wood shop and stain glass shop that is usually closed in the summers, because there isn't anyone available to monitor these. We could change that and the resort would love it.) We would also probably join a boat club. They have multiple boat that you can take out for the day. The is an initiation fee and then a monthly fee. You just reserve a boat. Take it out and enjoy. take it back and they deal with it. You pay the fuel cost.

2) We find out we are ok with the summers. We buy a house in Sarasota area. Rent it to snow birds in the winter. We love our resort, so we would still go there for the winter. Could work out that with the rental income we could essentially live "free". That income would pay for the property taxes, hurricane ins., utilities and our resort fees.

3) We find out we don't like the summers. We would probably buy a house in Naples, FL and rent it out full time. In Naples the prices are higher, but the rental market is strong. There is so much damn money in that town and should easily have property values increase. Then we have to decide what to do for the summers. We have talked about just traveling. We have been to Santorini and thought about spending a month there. My sister lives in Milan, Italy and thought about spending a month each year touring Italy. Wife's family is from Scotland and we could tour there and Ireland for a month or so. Spend a month with the grandkids in El Paso. Although we hate El Paso, so most likely just visit for a week here and there each summer between travels. We could just take cruises all over the world during the summers.

4) Start searching for another Lake House. It has been my wife dream since she was a kid to live on a lake. We thought we got her dream with this one. We could just travel the country looking for a new lake house. I brought up LOTO to her and she said that it looked great and something we should look into if that is the direction we go. When we were looking for a lake house before we didn't go to far north. Main reason was we have friends that have lake houses up north and can only use them between Memorial day and Labor day, as it get too cold. Well I didn't want to only use it for 3 months, so we stayed south. My thinking may have changed some as far as that goes. Maybe 3 months will be ok. We went to Lake Charlevoix to visit friends and loved it. Boyne city is a nice little town. Biggest problem is that it is in Mi. When we left CA I swore I would never own property in a blue state again, which makes it tough as a lot of northern states are blue. Maybe we could rent a lake house for the summer, but not sure if the money would work out.

So, not sure what we will do, but will have fun doing it and with aging parents you never know what will change.

 

[PaPaG]

I don’t recall anyone saying that (although I’m not gonna go back 121 pages and check).

Honest question…will you be buying in Havasu (or anywhere else) once the dust settles?


I completely agree. You can see the tide changing. I think this is the most realistic situation. They are letting him fumble daily now.

As far as buying anywhere else once the dust settles, the answer is positively YES. I sold off 7 properties during the fast crazy rising prices and close to when I felt the peak was, prices did go a little higher on 5 of my properties after I sold them and 2 were stagnant after I sold. As of this mornings check all 7 are lower than when I sold them so while I may have lost a little by not holding out and selling at the absolute peak I got what I was happy with at the time and glad I don't own any of them right now.
When prices come down to what I feel is a good time to jump back in I will be buying again but not sure what area, I have 6-7 different areas of a few different states we have been very interested in. Not sure if it is going to be a forever home, 2nd home to our river home, vacation home for some of the summer or winter months but no more rentals that is for sure.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

As far as buying anywhere else once the dust settles, the answer is positively YES. I sold off 7 properties during the fast crazy rising prices and close to when I felt the peak was, prices did go a little higher on 5 of my properties after I sold them and 2 were stagnant after I sold. As of this mornings check all 7 are lower than when I sold them so while I may have lost a little by not holding out and selling at the absolute peak I got what I was happy with at the time and glad I don't own any of them right now.
When prices come down to what I feel is a good time to jump back in I will be buying again but not sure what area, I have 6-7 different areas of a few different states we have been very interested in. Not sure if it is going to be a forever home, 2nd home to our river home, vacation home for some of the summer or winter months but no more rentals that is for sure.

Translation- I didn’t know when the peak was, I left significant money on the table, and sold too early. But I did what was best for me, and rely on Zillow to rationalize my ill times decisions.

But will pound my chest and chastise others that are selling after the peak and tell them they are loosing money, knowing nothing about their situation.

 

[Englewood]

As far as buying anywhere else once the dust settles, the answer is positively YES. I sold off 7 properties during the fast crazy rising prices and close to when I felt the peak was, prices did go a little higher on 5 of my properties after I sold them and 2 were stagnant after I sold. As of this mornings check all 7 are lower than when I sold them so while I may have lost a little by not holding out and selling at the absolute peak I got what I was happy with at the time and glad I don't own any of them right now.
When prices come down to what I feel is a good time to jump back in I will be buying again but not sure what area, I have 6-7 different areas of a few different states we have been very interested in. Not sure if it is going to be a forever home, 2nd home to our river home, vacation home for some of the summer or winter months but no more rentals that is for sure.

What indicators are you monitoring to decide when it is time to jump back in? Honest question.

Are you looking for specific data? Prices? Feel?

While we have differing opinions, I still like to see others point of view.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Your one of those guys that does the rain dance until it rains.. then claims it rained because of the dance.. lol

I’m agreeing that things are slowing down across the board now.. but your initial predictions in this thread and the one before it were WILDLY inaccurate..

There has been quite a few members that I have talked too that held off buying because of this thread that are all now kicking themselves because of rate hikes and price hikes.

Hopefully there is some relief on both fronts in the future…. But if that happens it doesn’t mean your predictions are correct.. it just means it finally rained..

That said if they lower interest rates.. better put your hat on because it’s gonna go even higher.

We've bought two houses since this thread started. We are obviously not the smart money.

I read the first post as a pretty simple statement that holds water. If you want to sell you should start working on it. Maybe the prediction was early, but LOF keeps pointing back years and generalizing that people have been saying sell for 10 years, Maybe so, but not everyone that said sell in this thread was saying that for 10 years.

I tend to agree, if you wanted to sell, you should have. I'm hearing Reno is down significantly from my friends who still live there. My brother's new build has zero interest and he is moving into it and renting his primary out in CDA Idaho.

I always thought that when things become obvious, you might have missed the opportunity, so we set some limits and went shopping. This may bite us in the ass, but we are not flipping houses.

All this being said, we have lifelong friends who own an RE brokerage in the greater Denver area. They have liquidated all their properties. That tells me bad times are coming. They don't talk about it, but their actions tell me they see something that regular people might not see. They have bought another property, but my gut tells me they got it right, no idea what they bought, they are tight-lipped. My guess is that they downsized into a condo and built a war chest of cash.

Time will tell, but it looks like rough water and headwinds in the forecast.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

We've bought two houses since this thread started. We are obviously not the smart money.

I read the first post as a pretty simple statement that holds water. If you want to sell you should start working on it. Maybe the prediction was early, but LOF keeps pointing back years and generalizing that people have been saying sell for 10 years, Maybe so, but not everyone that said sell in this thread was saying that for 10 years.

I tend to agree, if you wanted to sell, you should have. I'm hearing Reno is down significantly from my friends who still live there. My brother's new build has zero interest and he is moving into it and renting his primary out in CDA Idaho.

I always thought that when things become obvious, you might have missed the opportunity, so we set some limits and went shopping. This may bite us in the ass, but we are not flipping houses.

All this being said, we have lifelong friends who own an RE brokerage in the greater Denver area. They have liquidated all their properties. That tells me bad times are coming. They don't talk about it, but their actions tell me they see something that regular people might not see. They have bought another property, but my gut tells me they got it right, no idea what they bought, they are tight-lipped. My guess is that they downsized into a condo and built a war chest of cash.

Time will tell, but it looks like rough water and headwinds in the forecast.

The generalization here in this thread is that houses are like stocks. If you don't sell the minute of the price peak, you have lost money. If that is the case the people subscribing to that theory need to fall on their sword and admit that if they sold before the peak they lost money too.

Of course no one that sells does that, but you can't claim Nostradumbass status by selling your property and claiming for years there will be a housing downturn at some unspecified point in the future. There is ALWAYS a housing downturn coming at some point in the future.

My premise is close to yours, when opportunity is obvious, the real opportunity has already passed. I've outlined my position many times. As far as residential RE, there will be plenty of visibility on the horizon when cracks turn to fissures. This administration is going to do everything they can to prop up the economy going into an election year. You are not going to wake up in 6 months from today with the housing market down 30%. You might have 5%+ unemployment by then, and that is the time to start paying attention.

 

[hallett21]

Is CA unemployment back to $450 max a week? Or is it still inflated?

 

[Sportin' Wood]

The generalization here in this thread is that houses are like stocks. If you don't sell the minute of the price peak, you have lost money. If that is the case the people subscribing to that theory need to fall on their sword and admit that if they sold before the peak they lost money too.

Of course no one that sells does that, but you can't claim Nostradumbass status by selling your property and claiming for years there will be a housing downturn at some unspecified point in the future. There is ALWAYS a housing downturn coming at some point in the future.

My premise is close to yours, when opportunity is obvious, the real opportunity has already passed. I've outlined my position many times. As far as residential RE, there will be plenty of visibility on the horizon when cracks turn to fissures. This administration is going to do everything they can to prop up the economy going into an election year. You are not going to wake up in 6 months from today with the housing market down 30%. You might have 5%+ unemployment by then, and that is the time to start paying attention.

We figured we might have left $20K on the table when we sold in Reno by not waiting another 3-6-12 months, but that being said we turned down an offer that was $100k more but sketchy rather than the all-cash easy sale offer. The get out fast here is a suitcase full of coins made it worth it. We made plenty on that investment either way. It was time to sell according to our plan.

I (we) had a simple wish for the market. We wanted FOMO pricing to end and return to negotiations. We wanted the opportunity for due diligence. We got that and are happy with our strategy. I've not looked at Zillow once for either house value and don't plan to do that any time soon. It is bad data IMHO. It was time to buy for us.

When (if) LHC home ownership becomes more attractive than renting for six months at Islander, we may pivot to a house. For now, I'm satisfied with where we are. FWIW I know my number for a pivot. I don't quite have enough cash flow to make that move today, so a slow ride down would suit me fine. In 18-24 months I figure I would be ready for another house to purchase, maybe sooner if Angie gets one of these jobs she has applied for. Hell, I may just stay all year in Montana and trade my SXS for a Mule. (The four-legged kind) It is hard to say what I will do in two years, we just finished a two-year plan and we have not talked about our next sprint. Couples planning has served us well, but sometimes you need to exhale and rest.

We still have a few items we want to buy that are dependent on a reversal in prices. Truck-Boat. Likely both used.

 

[PaPaG]

What indicators are you monitoring to decide when it is time to jump back in? Honest question.

Are you looking for specific data? Prices? Feel?

While we have differing opinions, I still like to see others point of view.

Long story but short version, waiting for Prices and Feel in the housing market. I typically trade daily at worst weekly in the stock market and the feel there is that prices in housing cannot be sustained for much longer. Job losses are a big factor along with the HUGE default rate that is happening right now at small banks, personal loans, and mortgages. CC interest rates hit 22% and folks are hurting and defaulting, big businesses are also going BK at a growing rate much higher than average. That said, when people cannot pay their mortgage due to either job loss or higher sustained interest rates prices will come down maybe not today, maybe not next month but the numbers are telling me they are slowly but surly heading down. Then I will buy something at a pre pandemic price.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Long story but short version, waiting for Prices and Feel in the housing market. I typically trade daily at worst weekly in the stock market and the feel there is that prices in housing cannot be sustained for much longer. Job losses are a big factor along with the HUGE default rate that is happening right now at small banks, personal loans, and mortgages. CC interest rates hit 22% and folks are hurting and defaulting, big businesses are also going BK at a growing rate much higher than average. That said, when people cannot pay their mortgage due to either job loss or higher sustained interest rates prices will come down maybe not today, maybe not next month but the numbers are telling me they are slowly but surly heading down. Then I will buy something at a pre pandemic price.

Pre pandemic price......
Better saddle up because it's going to be a long ride.

 

[Runs2rch]

Pre pandemic price......
Better saddle up because it's going to be a long ride.

Won't be as long as you think.

 

[PaPaG]

Pre pandemic price......
Better saddle up because it's going to be a long ride.

Sure it is....

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

We've bought two houses since this thread started. We are obviously not the smart money.

I read the first post as a pretty simple statement that holds water. If you want to sell you should start working on it. Maybe the prediction was early, but LOF keeps pointing back years and generalizing that people have been saying sell for 10 years, Maybe so, but not everyone that said sell in this thread was saying that for 10 years.

I tend to agree, if you wanted to sell, you should have. I'm hearing Reno is down significantly from my friends who still live there. My brother's new build has zero interest and he is moving into it and renting his primary out in CDA Idaho.

I always thought that when things become obvious, you might have missed the opportunity, so we set some limits and went shopping. This may bite us in the ass, but we are not flipping houses.

All this being said, we have lifelong friends who own an RE brokerage in the greater Denver area. They have liquidated all their properties. That tells me bad times are coming. They don't talk about it, but their actions tell me they see something that regular people might not see. They have bought another property, but my gut tells me they got it right, no idea what they bought, they are tight-lipped. My guess is that they downsized into a condo and built a war chest of cash.

Time will tell, but it looks like rough water and headwinds in the forecast.

Your Friends with the RE brokerage have probably seen a huge slow down in business. It is no secret that the RE industry is hurting due to rates and the inventory issues. Maybe managing properties and dealing with people wasn't what they wanted to do anymore. The laws are so tenant friendly anymore, owning an investment property could be more of a strain than a benefit. We have a customer right now that is in the eviction process with her tenant. Hasn't collected a rent check in over a year.

 

[Orange Juice]

Long story but short version, waiting for Prices and Feel in the housing market. I typically trade daily at worst weekly in the stock market and the feel there is that prices in housing cannot be sustained for much longer. Job losses are a big factor along with the HUGE default rate that is happening right now at small banks, personal loans, and mortgages. CC interest rates hit 22% and folks are hurting and defaulting, big businesses are also going BK at a growing rate much higher than average. That said, when people cannot pay their mortgage due to either job loss or higher sustained interest rates prices will come down maybe not today, maybe not next month but the numbers are telling me they are slowly but surly heading down. Then I will buy something at a pre pandemic price.

I see nothing in my Phoenix neighborhood that suggests a crash. Most of the homes are paid off, and those that aren't are locked in at 3% mortgages.

If the home is in good condition, it sells Quick.
if it's a 30 y/I home that needs a kitchen and 2 bath remodels, then it may sit on the market.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Sure it is....

June 2024 will be here before we know it and you will still be wrong.

Keep waiting for your pre pandemic prices.

Meanwhile I know quite a few people in So Cal and Havasu, who are flipping homes left and right, making more than you are sitting on your hands waiting for "the crash"......

 

[PaPaG]

I see nothing in my Phoenix neighborhood that suggests a crash. Most of the homes are paid off, and those that aren't are locked in at 3% mortgages.

If the home is in good condition, it sells Quick.
if it's a 30 y/I home that needs a kitchen and 2 bath remodels, then it may sit on the market.

HMM news and data show otherwise.

June 2024 will be here before we know it and you will still be wrong.

Keep waiting for your pre pandemic prices.

Meanwhile I know quite a few people in So Cal and Havasu, who are flipping homes left and right, making more than you are sitting on your hands waiting for "the crash"......

AND like a typical KAREN you harp on the same old thing without doing any reading of updates I had posted. I had said many times my dates were off and extended my opinion of timeline as any REAL INVESTOR does, not just the keyboard professional. You keep mentioning Ca and Havi real estate, how about the rest of country lol lol lol.... PS again your ignorant comments show how well your reading and comprehension ability is. LOL havi flipping left and right and making so much money lol....come on even you can't believe the crap coming out of your mouth..

 

[shintoooo]

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

HMM news and data show otherwise.

AND like a typical KAREN you harp on the same old thing without doing any reading of updates I had posted. I had said many times my dates were off and extended my opinion of timeline as any REAL INVESTOR does, not just the keyboard professional. You keep mentioning Ca and Havi real estate, how about the rest of country lol lol lol....

Adjusting your timeline like a REAL INVESTOR..............


Noted

Thank God you aren't managing my money. I would have lost out on hundreds of thousands of dollars. Keep on keeping on bro.

 

[PaPaG]

Adjusting your timeline like a REAL INVESTOR..............


Noted

Thank God you aren't managing my money. I would have lost out on hundreds of thousands of dollars. Keep on keeping on bro.

Hate to tell you the money sitting stagnant in housing right now except for the few folks selling is doing nothing especially for you....you have not made a penny til you sell your places so sit down and relax, keep selling your mortgages to folks for ridiculous rates and back end checks... You would be so lucky to have my track record with investments, see for one I sold all but 1 of my properties that have actually MADE MONEY not just on paper, I have also done extremely well in the stock market this past 20+ months sitting on my hands lol lol lol....all the way to the bank.....

 

[PaPaG]

The best part about this thread is seeing all the so called professionals heads explode lol lol gotta love it.

 

[DMF]

Hate to tell you the money sitting stagnant in housing right now except for the few folks selling is doing nothing especially for you....you have not made a penny til you sell your places so sit down and relax, keep selling your mortgages to folks for ridiculous rates and back end checks... You would be so lucky to have my track record with investments, see for one I sold all but 1 of my properties that have actually MADE MONEY not just on paper, I have also done extremely well in the stock market this past 20+ months sitting on my hands lol lol lol....all the way to the bank.....

You seem to take things really personal. You are on the internet having a conversation. You should expect varying opinions.

 

[PaPaG]

You seem to take things really personal. You are on the internet having a conversation. You should expect varying opinions.

I actually do when anyone attacks me, I like varying opinions when not presented in insult or attack mode, but a select few like to insult in the past and continue so I respond in kind.

 

[hallett21]

Long story but short version, waiting for Prices and Feel in the housing market. I typically trade daily at worst weekly in the stock market and the feel there is that prices in housing cannot be sustained for much longer. Job losses are a big factor along with the HUGE default rate that is happening right now at small banks, personal loans, and mortgages. CC interest rates hit 22% and folks are hurting and defaulting, big businesses are also going BK at a growing rate much higher than average. That said, when people cannot pay their mortgage due to either job loss or higher sustained interest rates prices will come down maybe not today, maybe not next month but the numbers are telling me they are slowly but surly heading down. Then I will buy something at a pre pandemic price.

You’re calling for prices below 2019?

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

The best part about this thread is seeing all the so called professionals heads explode lol lol gotta love it.

The best part is you saying you need another 18 months after the deals you proclaimed were “Around the corner” almost 18 months ago never materialized.

 

[Looking Glass]

I actually do when anyone attacks me, I like varying opinions when not presented in insult or attack mode, but a select few like to insult in the past and continue so I respond in kind.

One thing that continues, is the ones who keep trying to convince themself and others that "EVERYTHING" is just fine.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

You’re calling for prices below 2019?

Prognostications like that are why I keep coming back.

 

[PaPaG]

You’re calling for prices below 2019?

NO, I would LIKE and BUY if they did, House I liked in Texas for our 2nd home to be close to some family was on 2+ acres, comped at 500k in January 2019, 375k in 2017. a few months ago house was comped at 975k, we almost bought it at 500k but I just could not make it out there in time to physically see it, who knows if it will happen, I guess no one in 2006 thought prices would ever come down until 07/08 hit and boy did they come down some down 50%........ no way will they crash to that % level again and not expecting it to but to correct back to what I feel comfortable with would be nice. If I could buy it for 550/600k I would pull the trigger. Just an example.