WELCOME TO RIVER DAVES PLACE

For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

LargeOrangeFont

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EmpirE231

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That’s because states and the Feds are going to nail them for fulfilling false opioid prescriptions.
We maybe that, and the fact that restructuring corporate debt isn’t so easy anymore with current rates. All these huge corporations have been able to restructure debt at flat or better rates for the last decade.
 

bonesfab

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The insurance situation going on in CA, and nationwide actually; I believe will have widespread complications across a lot of industries. We are starting to see homes falling out of escrow due to sticker shock of the insurance premiums, if they can even obtain insurance at all. We’re seeing people pass up on that new car purchase…lots of NSF’s on peoples premiums because they’ve been running the rev limiter for a while. Average household in CA with 2 cars and owns a home will see an average increase of 2-3k more per year in insurance premiums…. Guess where they’re gonna have to trim the fat in their spending, etc. we’re seeing commercial auto and business policies double in premium, etc. it’s wild.
Insurance is getting uglier than it was, that's for sure.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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We maybe that, and the fact that restructuring corporate debt isn’t so easy anymore with current rates. All these huge corporations have been able to restructure debt at flat or better rates for the last decade.

In the articles they indicate that’s the reason why they are filing BK. They are facing over 1000 lawsuits.

They have been shrinking for the last couple years.
 

EmpirE231

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In the articles they indicate that’s the reason why they are filing BK. They are facing over 1000 lawsuits.

They have been shrinking for the last couple years.
As if everything they disclose is the absolute truth…. Insurance carriers aren’t talking about losses the assumed due to buying bonds at low rates…. But we all know… there are always several things at play that cause things like this.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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As if everything they disclose is the absolute truth…. Insurance carriers aren’t talking about losses the assumed due to buying bonds at low rates…. But we all know… there are always several things at play that cause things like this.

Well it’s a public company, so unless they are cooking the books, it’s all out there for public consumption. They have been in decline for years and have closed hundreds of stores, and have the opioid crisis pinned on them.

That enough is reason to file BK.
 

Cole Trickle

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The insurance situation going on in CA, and nationwide actually; I believe will have widespread complications across a lot of industries. We are starting to see homes falling out of escrow due to sticker shock of the insurance premiums, if they can even obtain insurance at all. We’re seeing people pass up on that new car purchase…lots of NSF’s on peoples premiums because they’ve been running the rev limiter for a while. Average household in CA with 2 cars and owns a home will see an average increase of 2-3k more per year in insurance premiums…. Guess where they’re gonna have to trim the fat in their spending, etc. we’re seeing commercial auto and business policies double in premium, etc. it’s wild.
Strange times....

Good news is I feel like the market has stabilized a tad after a pretty rough 6-12 months because most other carriers have the same restrictions and increases. I'm only loosing business to AAA right now.

Phones for everything are pretty quiet right now. Few car adds and even less homes being purchased. I think we had the slowest day in history yesterday for service calls it was almost spooky how quiet it was.
 

Cole Trickle

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As if everything they disclose is the absolute truth…. Insurance carriers aren’t talking about losses the assumed due to buying bonds at low rates…. But we all know… there are always several things at play that cause things like this.
I actually think this is a much bigger issue than claims. I haven't heard a single company come out and say anything about the bad investments for all that money that has to sit. I know alot of companies are selling large properties right now and some at a loss.
 

regor

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How Big Is The US Housing Bubble?

teaser image
Some deny there is a housing bubble...

TUE AUG 29, AT 9:20 AM


1693329484833.jpeg



1693329675753.jpeg
 

angiebaby

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Interesting. Jeff and I were just talking last night with his parents about insurance, and he said, "Insurance is a luxury." It makes sense that when things start getting rough, it would be one of the things people stop paying for. Food & utilities, or insurance? It's a no-brainer.

Wait until people stop paying on the credit cards they have maxed out so they can continue to go to the river and out to eat, pretending everything is fine. Then the banking industry will ask the taxpayers for help again.
 

EmpirE231

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Strange times....

Good news is I feel like the market has stabilized a tad after a pretty rough 6-12 months because most other carriers have the same restrictions and increases. I'm only loosing business to AAA right now.

Phones for everything are pretty quiet right now. Few car adds and even less homes being purchased. I think we had the slowest day in history yesterday for service calls it was almost spooky how quiet it was.
are you guys still writing any new business w/ Mercury?

I believe AAA just implemented a 7-8 day block bind in order to slow things down. They were the last ones holding the door open, and they either did that strategically to buy up marketplace.... or they just screwed themselves, and we will find out about in the 4th quarter. They have never been known for low rates... and it'll be interesting to see what they do with the Wawanesa book they just bought..... that program had to be losing money by the boat load.

we're still inundated with calls... lots of service stuff (rate increases, payment plan changes, internal reviews to keep policies active etc ) but it definitely is slowing down. I think the news is out there, and consumers are starting to catch on. I still get sticker shock giving some quotes here and there wondering where this is all gonna land, and how are consumers going to be able to afford it. Auto quote yesterday, 4 cars, 4 drivers husband + wife + 2 kids 25&30YO clean records.... premium with a package discount was 11K per year o_O
 

EmpirE231

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Interesting. Jeff and I were just talking last night with his parents about insurance, and he said, "Insurance is a luxury." It makes sense that when things start getting rough, it would be one of the things people stop paying for. Food & utilities, or insurance? It's a no-brainer.

Wait until people stop paying on the credit cards they have maxed out so they can continue to go to the river and out to eat, pretending everything is fine. Then the banking industry will ask the taxpayers for help again.
correct the list usually goes

-shelter
-food
-utilities
-insurance & savings / investments
-everything else

unfortunately if you have a home loan, or a loan on your car, you are required to have insurance. Also, the same government that is screwing you're insurance rates, also mandates that you carry auto liability insurance. I do see a lot of people deciding to forgo insurance currently and into the future..... which also opens up a whole new can of worms when problems / accidents happen... hence the huge increase in hit & run accidents, etc.
 

OldSchoolBoats

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As if everything they disclose is the absolute truth…. Insurance carriers aren’t talking about losses the assumed due to buying bonds at low rates…. But we all know… there are always several things at play that cause things like this.
I actually think this is a much bigger issue than claims. I haven't heard a single company come out and say anything about the bad investments for all that money that has to sit. I know alot of companies are selling large properties right now and some at a loss.

This is what nobody is talking about and it is a travesty that consumers have to pay for their bad investments. These people should have known better and got out of those positions, as soon as the fed started hiking.
 

Sportin' Wood

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correct the list usually goes

-shelter
-food
-utilities
-insurance & savings / investments
-everything else

unfortunately if you have a home loan, or a loan on your car, you are required to have insurance. Also, the same government that is screwing you're insurance rates, also mandates that you carry auto liability insurance. I do see a lot of people deciding to forgo insurance currently and into the future..... which also opens up a whole new can of worms when problems / accidents happen... hence the huge increase in hit & run accidents, etc.
Driving is also a luxury.
 

Sportin' Wood

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luxurious necessity for those living in the rat race with a commute.
Choices. Granted, it takes years of discipline to achieve some goals. Right now I'm blessed to not have to drive to work. It's a gift I don't take lightly. I was stuck in that SoCa driving culture for most of my life, I really love not having to drive now.

If I get called back into an office, I will live near a factory if possible.

Still driving is not required to live.
You have to specify the century of the vehicle in question.
I'm overanalyzing the purchase of a second vehicle right now. I like our little Colorado Oil burner, but it is too small to pull the boat I want. I want a truck with no computers, like a W250 Cummins 4x4, but the thought of driving that from Montana to LHC is brutal. Decisions decisions. :)

First world problems I guess.
 

Cole Trickle

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This is what nobody is talking about and it is a travesty that consumers have to pay for their bad investments. These people should have known better and got out of those positions, as soon as the fed started hiking.
If you are locked into a historically smart no risk investment and then the the fed increases the rate from 0 to 5% in a 18 month period and then you compound that with being forced to charge 2020 rates while you are paying out 2022-23 claims things are going to get rough.


Bad investments don't allow insurance companies to change rates claims do. Claims are through the roof

The people that handle the investments for these companies as well as the banks are a ton smarter than we are and I think the covid/election created the perfect storm for issues.
 
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LargeOrangeFont

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Choices. Granted, it takes years of discipline to achieve some goals. Right now I'm blessed to not have to drive to work. It's a gift I don't take lightly. I was stuck in that SoCa driving culture for most of my life, I really love not having to drive now.

If I get called back into an office, I will live near a factory if possible.

Still driving is not required to live.

I'm overanalyzing the purchase of a second vehicle right now. I like our little Colorado Oil burner, but it is too small to pull the boat I want. I want a truck with no computers, like a W250 Cummins 4x4, but the thought of driving that from Montana to LHC is brutal. Decisions decisions. :)

First world problems I guess.

I'm in a similar analysis paralysis in my head about another vehicle to bomb around in.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Carmagadon needs to materialize to make this easier. :) $25K for a 35-year-old truck is hard to justify knowing it will bleed you dry on maintenance costs.

I agree with you. But I don’t see $25k off MSRP for new trucks happening to spur that on.
 

Sportin' Wood

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I agree with you. But I don’t see $25k off MSRP for new trucks happening to spur that on.
Hopeful people won't want to collect a dozen cars due to rising insurance costs and will see fit to liquidate the older stuff. With a lack of cash flow perhaps we see reductions. I've been shopping in states with high insurance and registration costs.

Edit: Plus the state with aggressive unfriendly smog certification requirements. LOL
:)
 

EmpirE231

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Hopeful people won't want to collect a dozen cars due to rising insurance costs and will see fit to liquidate the older stuff. With a lack of cash flow perhaps we see reductions. I've been shopping in states with high insurance and registration costs.

Edit: Plus the state with aggressive unfriendly smog certification requirements. LOL
:)
I think you will see people selling off the "extra car" in the next year or so once rate increases settle in and it becomes more of an expense than a convenience keeping it around. Problem is, that will be more so cars or vehicles that are 10-15 years old that people had full coverage on. Most cars that are much older and only carried liability only continue being fairly inexpensive to keep around.
 

mesquito_creek

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I think you will see people selling off the "extra car" in the next year or so once rate increases settle in and it becomes more of an expense than a convenience keeping it around. Problem is, that will be more so cars or vehicles that are 10-15 years old that people had full coverage on. Most cars that are much older and only carried liability only continue being fairly inexpensive to keep around.

My 2005 silverado is only 50 bucks a month for full coverage... I don't think thats gonna do much to change anything by getting rid of it. I would probably get rid of my 2019 Ram first and throw a crate 6L in the old girl when she gives up the farm.
 

hallett21

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My 2005 silverado is only 50 bucks a month for full coverage... I don't think thats gonna do much to change anything by getting rid of it. I would probably get rid of my 2019 Ram first and throw a crate 6L in the old girl when she gives up the farm.
Mind if I ask what the value is stated at on the 05?
 

mesquito_creek

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Mind if I ask what the value is stated at on the 05?
No idea, its been insured since I bought it new with all my other vehicles. 100/300 policies with comprehensive, collision, under insured etc... $48.15 a month net all my multi car, multi homeowners, mulit boats bundle. But it is listed as 5000 miles a year or less, which is more than I use it. (No kids in house, both drivers over 50, no tickets/accidents)
 

NicPaus

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Mind if I ask what the value is stated at on the 05?
My 06 regular cab long bed 2500 was $1200 a year full coverage 10k miles a year. So I sold it for $4500 7years ago. Often times wish I still had.

Driving the reg cab long bed tundra now. $700 a year liability only. Just picked up a scoop of sand.

Got base in 1 trailer, 50/50 mix in the other.
20230829_160815.jpg
 

Cole Trickle

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Mind if I ask what the value is stated at on the 05?
Most insurance carriers do not offer stated value on normal cars. They provide ACV (Actual cash value) based on current market values for similar condition/miles/model. They typically have to pull several comps to come up with an average value.

Weird times when you can profit 10K++ on the total loss of a vehicle but I'm seeing it daily. (great time to sell/crash just not buy...lol)
 

billt

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I actually know two friends that moved to Havasu then moved back. Both for individual reasons.. but it does happen occasionally
The heat is one of the biggest contributing factors of this. Regardless of what anyone thinks of California, and it's horrible politics, and insane real estate costs, it has some of the best climate in the world. It spoils people who have lived there for any length of time. Especially in and around L.A. and the San Diego area.

It's one thing to come here on weekends in the Summer when it's 117 F, and enjoy the lake for a couple of days. But it's another to actually LIVE and/or WORK in it.... It's much the same deal with the humidity of Florida and the Gulf Coast.... Not to mention the always ever present threat of hurricanes. Many move away after just a year or two.

I have always said LIVING in the desert is a love it or hate it proposition. People like myself come here IN THE SUMMER and never want to leave..... Or else they can't wait to get the hell out of here. There never seems to be much middle ground between the two.

And that is a very large contributing factor as to why there is always so much real estate for sale in this town. That, and the fact it is very hard to earn a prosperous living here... As the old saying goes, "Lake Havasu is a beautiful town. Just be sure to bring your own money, because there sure as hell isn't any when you get here!"
 

mesquito_creek

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The heat is one of the biggest contributing factors of this. Regardless of what anyone thinks of California, and it's horrible politics, and insane real estate costs, it has some of the best climate in the world. It spoils people who have lived there for any length of time. Especially in and around L.A. and the San Diego area.

It's one thing to come here on weekends in the Summer when it's 117 F, and enjoy the lake for a couple of days. But it's another to actually LIVE and/or WORK in it.... It's much the same deal with the humidity of Florida and the Gulf Coast.... Not to mention the always ever present threat of hurricanes. Many move away after just a year or two.

I have always said LIVING in the desert is a love it or hate it proposition. People like myself come here IN THE SUMMER and never want to leave..... Or else they can't wait to get the hell out of here. There never seems to be much middle ground between the two.

And that is a very large contributing factor as to why there is always so much real estate for sale in this town. That, and the fact it is very hard to earn a prosperous living here... As the old saying goes, "Lake Havasu is a beautiful town. Just be sure to bring your own money, because there sure as hell isn't any when you get here!"

31 consecutive Arizona summers for me greeted by 31 consecutive days over 110… anyone who says they enjoy the Arizona summers has to get their head checked. It’s gnarly and not in a good way.
 
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billt

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31 consecutive Arizona summers for me greeted by 31 consecutive days over 110… anyone who says they enjoy the Arizona summers has to get their head checked. It gnarly and not in a good way.
Same here. I've lived 32 consecutive years in Arizona, (since 1991). And before that 38 consecutive years in Chicago. (Where I was born and raised). And I would do ANY Arizona Summer over ANY Illinois Winter 7 days a week, and twice on Sunday.

Putting up with that bitter freezing cold. Not to mention snow, sleet, constant rain and slop falling out of the sky. Salt ruining your car. Overcast for days on end. Taking 2 hours to get to and from work, instead of 25 minutes every time it snows over 4". Name it and I'll take a few months of 110 heat any time, and all the time.

A/C works as well here in the Summer, as heat does there in the Winter. And a little bit of sweat, beats shivering and scraping windshields, waiting for the car to warm up. And I won't even get into their insane gun laws and stupid liberal politics.
 

mesquito_creek

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Same here. I've lived 32 consecutive years in Arizona, (since 1991). And before that 38 consecutive years in Chicago. (Where I was born and raised). And I would do ANY Arizona Summer over ANY Illinois Winter 7 days a week, and twice on Sunday.

Putting up with that bitter freezing cold. Not to mention snow, sleet, constant rain and slop falling out of the sky. Salt ruining your car. Overcast for days on end. Taking 2 hours to get to and from work, instead of 25 minutes every time it snows over 4". Name it and I'll take a few months of 110 heat any time, and all the time.

A/C works as well here in the Summer, as heat does there in the Winter. And a little bit of sweat, beats shivering and scraping windshields, waiting for the car to warm up. And I won't even get into their insane gun laws and stupid liberal politics.

I surely didn’t mean to suggest that AZ was bad, but living/working full time summers blows hard. I did much better in my 30s and 40s but my 50s here in the heat sucks. Fortunately it’s my last one, wife joins me in retirement end of year and I don’t care if I have to live in a van down by the river… I won’t be here next summer!

I am setting up a TeePee on @Nanu/Nanu back forty if I have too! I know when he’s not around and I can start my squatting timer!
 

mesquito_creek

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BTW… and California haters trapped there who wants to house swap for the summer… hit me up! I am guessing there won’t be many takers. I will throw in the guns safe combo and a couple thousand rounds so you can work that whole thing out of your system! Haha
 

CarolynandBob

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Well I think we are done with this lake house. Just signed a pocket listing with the agent that built our house. (she is still building other houses just not on the lake}. She believes we can get way more than double what we paid in 2019. That is not the only reason for selling. It is a little to rural for us, have to drive too far to do things we like, aging parents and 8 acres is a lot to take care of. We are going to test the market this winter with the pocket listing and is it doesn't sell by spring we will put it on the mls. She stated the higher priced stuff was taking longer to sell, but not on the lake. She also said that there isn't any property on the lake near us with that much land. Who know, we will see if she is blowing smoke or not.

We will also be selling the boat, Polaris ranger, Tractor, truck and any of the furniture that the new owners want. Not sure where we will end up for the summers, but don't have to decide until it sells. May just travel in the summers.
 

Looking Glass

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Well I think we are done with this lake house. Just signed a pocket listing with the agent that built our house. (she is still building other houses just not on the lake}. She believes we can get way more than double what we paid in 2019. That is not the only reason for selling. It is a little to rural for us, have to drive too far to do things we like, aging parents and 8 acres is a lot to take care of. We are going to test the market this winter with the pocket listing and is it doesn't sell by spring we will put it on the mls. She stated the higher priced stuff was taking longer to sell, but not on the lake. She also said that there isn't any property on the lake near us with that much land. Who know, we will see if she is blowing smoke or not.

We will also be selling the boat, Polaris ranger, Tractor, truck and any of the furniture that the new owners want. Not sure where we will end up for the summers, but don't have to decide until it sells. May just travel in the summers.


The one great thing about your situation is not "Needing" to sell. IMO, like your Agent said with ALL the Pluses your property has, just take a deep breath and understand that there is a buyer, you Two just haven't met yet!!

Best Of Luck!!
 

jet496

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Not many worthy houses listed in my zip code, which we're always looking for something better, but 2 houses just dropped 20% within 2 to 3 weeks of listing. Another listing is so overpriced that it'll need to drop 30 - 40% but they haven't dropped their price yet. I know the property well because we almost went in escrow on it years ago.

A proper correction in in order but I still don't see houses dropping too much due to lack of supply (25-30% is a reasonable drop considering houses doubled, tripled & quadrupled in the last 10 years). Maybe this will change with the economy but who knows.
 
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CarolynandBob

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What are the advantages of a pocket listing as opposed to the mls?

Lower % realtor fee. We agreed to 4% for the pocket and 5% if it is listed. Also if we did lower the price it won’t show that on the mls and it will look like a new listing in the spring. I figured the won’t be much interest here in the fall or winter. Cold and dreary. Lake low and trees bare. I really don’t think it will sell before spring , but I thought why not take a shot
 

Looking Glass

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Lower % realtor fee. We agreed to 4% for the pocket and 5% if it is listed. Also if we did lower the price it won’t show that on the mls and it will look like a new listing in the spring. I figured the won’t be much interest here in the fall or winter. Cold and dreary. Lake low and trees bare. I really don’t think it will sell before spring , but I thought why not take a shot


It might surprise you, as People who Know and Want this type of Property, understand and do not care about the "Backdrop" of a changed Season.:cool:
 

CarolynandBob

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It might surprise you, as People who Know and Want this type of Property, understand and do not care about the "Backdrop" of a changed Season.:cool:

Yeah you are probably right. I hope they want it all. All furniture, equipment and everything except personal items.
 
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