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For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

Done-it-again

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I'm not seeing much, there relators calling my parents so often if they are waiting to sell their home as they have buyers in the area of Rancho Cucamonga. Saying they could sell it for 1.7-1.8.... Assholes are making it harder for me to buy it from them at a discount. lol
 

BabyRay

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We just sold a fully remodeled fixer in the Puget Sound region. We had to drop the price 5% to get any interest. We then accepted the one and only offer at another 2% reduction and kicked in about 2% toward the buyers’ closing costs. Ended up in mid-500k range. It’s not a starter, but it’s not fabulous either.

If interest rates were lower, we may have had more interested parties. On the other hand, it’s in a shitty neighborhood and has no garage. So, I don’t know what it all means. 🤷‍♂️ I’m just glad the sucker is sold, that we made a reasonable profit, and that I bought my first house in 1975 for $32k.
 

monkeyswrench

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We just sold a fully remodeled fixer in the Puget Sound region. We had to drop the price 5% to get any interest. We then accepted the one and only offer at another 2% reduction and kicked in about 2% toward the buyers’ closing costs. Ended up in mid-500k range. It’s not a starter, but it’s not fabulous either.

If interest rates were lower, we may have had more interested parties. On the other hand, it’s in a shitty neighborhood and has no garage. So, I don’t know what it all means. 🤷‍♂️ I’m just glad the sucker is sold, that we made a reasonable profit, and that I bought my first house in 1975 for $32k.
I think the interest rates have changed things in that price area. That seems to be comparable to around here. We're not higher end, like Prescott proper, we're were all the people that build those homes live 🤣 That, and a bunch of retirees from everywhere. The homes are still moving, but it seems like it's slowed some. The homes have signs up for more than a couple days. That seems fine, at least things are still moving.
 

Cdog

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Rates are definitely punitive at this point. People who are committed one way or another are doing massive rate buy downs and negotiating seller concessions to help pay for the rate buy down. 16k seller concessions on my closing next week
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Rates are definitely punitive at this point. People who are committed one way or another are doing massive rate buy downs and negotiating seller concessions to help pay for the rate buy down. 16k seller concessions on my closing next week

And that is just it..there are fewer buyers and still fewer sellers. Prices aren’t really going to drop in that scenario. Nothing is forcing people to sell.
 

HNL2LHC

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7.31%!?!?!?! Was hoping the rates would drop to mid 6% for our son next years. Looks like it might be more of a wait. Oh well….
 

attitude

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My industry is starting to feel it. A Fortune 500 company we work for is in the process of laying off 15% of its work force and will not be renewing a majority of its leased offices across the nation. A competitor of ours just had a layoff last Friday. We have also had contacts who give us work call and say they are super slow and are worried about their job. Talking to the owner of my company on Monday he said we have been hot for a long time but it can’t stay the way.

Charles Schwab also just announced they will be cutting offices and jobs in order to save a minimum of $500 million annually.
 

regor

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Need a year of job losses.

We’ve had a year of job gains. We might be getting ready to swing the other way.


Standard Chartered Bank's Steve Englander estimates the downward revision could be around 650,000, with much of that softness concentrated in recent quarters. That would indicate “a much weaker labor market profile” than what underpinned Fed tightening in recent quarters, Englander said.


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😆
 

Nanu/Nanu

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I live in the Prescott, AZ area which has been a favorite destination for those who are relocating. Im a Lineman for the power company and I will say our day to day new business/residential construction has slowed way down. We have a 4 crew yard and we have gone from averaging 2-3 line extensions a day down to 2-3 a week. And we are now shifting to more maintenance work. The company is also on on a big push to straighten up financially. Obviously this is driven by many factors being we are in a rate case year but they are really paying attention to where their dollars are going.as of recently. I think they feel something is on the horizon as well. Back to the construction piece there have also been a few large subdivision projects that have been placed on hold (at various stages of development) some are just land some have utilities plumbed and curbs poured. The plot is thickening thats for sure.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Standard Chartered Bank's Steve Englander estimates the downward revision could be around 650,000, with much of that softness concentrated in recent quarters. That would indicate “a much weaker labor market profile” than what underpinned Fed tightening in recent quarters, Englander said.


View attachment 1268509


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Agreed, but that is still a small net growth for that period.

Bullshit it may be, but we need to be hemorrhaging jobs for a crash and we are not yet.

We may be soon. Or the fed may drop their pants to protect Biden in an election year..
 

Englewood

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Home Purchase Applications Plummet To 28 Year Low As Nobody Can Afford To Buy A Home Anymore

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The average 30Y mortgage rate just hit 7.31%, the highest since the dot com bubble.

WED AUG 23, AT 6:58 AM
While demand is low, so is supply. The effects of cheap money will be felt for a long time. I think it will forever change the market.

Unless job loss forces ones hand, nobody in their right mind is leaving a 3% mortgage for a 7.5% mortgage on a more expensive home.

$500,000 @ 3% = $2,108/mo
$1,000,000 @ 7% = $6,653/mo

This scenario would add $4,545/mo in housing expense, before the $500/mo in added taxes. Not many people can add $5k/mo to their nut for a house upgrade.

I believe sales volume (not prices) will remain at current levels for at least 10 years.

There is also a segment of the "experts" who belive that prices will rubber band higher if/when rates drop. Not sure I agree with that yet but here is the logic...

Buyer is approved for a house today at $800,000 @ 7%. This payment is $5,322. If rates are at 5%, that same monthly payment now affords them a $1m purchase price ($5,368).
 

LargeOrangeFont

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While demand is low, so is supply. The effects of cheap money will be felt for a long time. I think it will forever change the market.

Unless job loss forces ones hand, nobody in their right mind is leaving a 3% mortgage for a 7.5% mortgage on a more expensive home.

$500,000 @ 3% = $2,108/mo
$1,000,000 @ 7% = $6,653/mo

This scenario would add $4,545/mo in housing expense, before the $500/mo in added taxes. Not many people can add $5k/mo to their nut for a house upgrade.

I believe sales volume (not prices) will remain at current levels for at least 10 years.

There is also a segment of the "experts" who belive that prices will rubber band higher if/when rates drop. Not sure I agree with that yet but here is the logic...

Buyer is approved for a house today at $800,000 @ 7%. This payment is $5,322. If rates are at 5%, that same monthly payment now affords them a $1m purchase price ($5,368).

The mortgage company I worked for in 07 sat us down in a convention hall in Anaheim and showed us a graph with no numbers and said a refi boom was “around the corner”.

They asked for questions at the end of this pep talk. There were several as you can imagine.. most of the obvious ones about the data on the chart, and the dotted line projections of mortgages to infinity were dismissed. The writing is on the wall here. Everyone I was sitting around now feels more uncertainty than before this meeting began.

This old lady is chosen for her question and stands up and asks when the construction on the the parking structure at the Irvine office will be done. You can see the WTF looks people are giving her and each other across the large room.

The SVP of finance then gave the most detailed answer of the whole presentation. “2 weeks!” She says.

3 months later they laid off 17,000 people 🤣
 
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HotRod82

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While demand is low, so is supply. The effects of cheap money will be felt for a long time. I think it will forever change the market.

Unless job loss forces ones hand, nobody in their right mind is leaving a 3% mortgage for a 7.5% mortgage on a more expensive home.

$500,000 @ 3% = $2,108/mo
$1,000,000 @ 7% = $6,653/mo

This scenario would add $4,545/mo in housing expense, before the $500/mo in added taxes. Not many people can add $5k/mo to their nut for a house upgrade.

I believe sales volume (not prices) will remain at current levels for at least 10 years.

There is also a segment of the "experts" who belive that prices will rubber band higher if/when rates drop. Not sure I agree with that yet but here is the logic...

Buyer is approved for a house today at $800,000 @ 7%. This payment is $5,322. If rates are at 5%, that same monthly payment now affords them a $1m purchase price ($5,368).
Report out yesterday along the same lines as your post, mortgage applications and sales are down but prices continue to rise. IMO , it’s not only cheap money that got us here, it’s also the result of 3 decades of insane regulations forced upon the building industry. Wasn’t that long ago you could build a nice house for 100k. Now you spend more than 100k before you even start building.
I don’t know where this goes ….
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Report out yesterday along the same lines as your post, mortgage applications and sales are down but prices continue to rise. IMO , it’s not only cheap money that got us here, it’s also the result of 3 decades of insane regulations forced upon the building industry. Wasn’t that long ago you could build a nice house for 100k. Now you spend more than 100k before you even start building.
I don’t know where this goes ….

We know the regs are not going away.
 

BHC Vic

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My industry is starting to feel it. A Fortune 500 company we work for is in the process of laying off 15% of its work force and will not be renewing a majority of its leased offices across the nation. A competitor of ours just had a layoff last Friday. We have also had contacts who give us work call and say they are super slow and are worried about their job. Talking to the owner of my company on Monday he said we have been hot for a long time but it can’t stay the way.

Charles Schwab also just announced they will be cutting offices and jobs in order to save a minimum of $500 million annually.
Norco prison shut down a building and lost I want to say 1000 jobs. Was talking to my neighbor whos a CO last night. We got a lot of apprentices sitting at home.
 

hallett21

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Norco prison shut down a building and lost I want to say 1000 jobs. Was talking to my neighbor whos a CO last night. We got a lot of apprentices sitting at home.
Due to releasing non violent crimes I assume?

Has DTLA slowed up for you guys?
 

attitude

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Norco prison shut down a building and lost I want to say 1000 jobs. Was talking to my neighbor whos a CO last night. We got a lot of apprentices sitting at home.
From my understanding a lot of Norco prison employees live in Norco, that blows.
 

caribbean20

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It is the speed with which mortgage rates moved up so fast over the last year that is the main issue. Current rates of around 7% + are not far off from the average mortgage rate over the last 30 years.

I see no reason rates will drop materially from here, considering the normal spread to the 10yr treasury rate (currently 4.3%, close to its longer term average). It will just take time to shake current home owners away from their cheap mortgages, but it will happen. Job relocations, layoffs, bigger family, etc.

The biggest surprise has been how resilient the economy and job market have been considering the rapid rate increases. It has fooled just about everyone.
 

Ladsm

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Work is forcing us to relocate to corp hubs, Seattle, LA, DC, NY etc. With interest rates up in the 7% range who the hell can move to those Blue Cities??? My current mortgage is 2%, Who the wants to give that up??
 
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BHC Vic

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From my understanding a lot of Norco prison employees live in Norco, that blows.
Yea he’s only been there 2 years so not much seniority. He said maybe chino or get transferred to Blythe or Lancaster. I for the life of me can’t figure out how he affords everything on his single income but it’s really none of my business.
 

JL95

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Yea he’s only been there 2 years so not much seniority. He said maybe chino or get transferred to Blythe or Lancaster. I for the life of me can’t figure out how he affords everything on his single income but it’s really none of my business.
I had a friend get into corrections and from what I've been told they are the double bubble triple dipper kings when it comes to overtime and scheduling work. I could be chatting BS right now but any day worked you are not scheduled you'd get overtime etc. He said the sheriffs on the prison busses are king shit $300k+++
 

Orange Juice

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Where in the world do you want to live? and invest for the future?
I’m “all in” with the U.S.A.

Regor would let you think otherwise. 😜
 

Orange Juice

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Any large drop in rates will be the in response to a catastrophic market event.

And the way they're driving this thing into the ground, that could very well happen.
We have a long way to go, before all that PPP money is worked through the system. Maybe 15-30 years. By then we’re at $1000 sqft



Water, Food, Shelter, Transportation, Education, Financial Security.
 

ChumpChange

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We have a long way to go, before all that PPP money is worked through the system. Maybe 15-30 years. By then we’re at $1000 sqft



Water, Food, Shelter, Transportation, Education, Financial Security.
PPP money is gone. Trust me, I’ve seen the financials. We still need to work through the ERC though.
 

Orange Juice

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Hey lil buddy, have you forecasted how many employees yore gunna fire with the new mask mandates coming down the pipe?

View attachment 1268694



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I think that portion of the workforce has already left permanently, during the first go around. It kind of sucked, because of the work load for us. but we all made a bunch of money, an were still here, ready to mask up if asked. 😉
 

regor

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LargeOrangeFont

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angiebaby

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That sounds very similar to what CA has done. How do you feel about that? Or do you care?
Don't really care. We don't actually live in the city. We're about 2 miles outside of it, but we need more affordable housing and rentals in the area. We don't have a housing shortage in Montana. We have too many empty homes (2nd and 3rd homes and STRs). People come for two weeks a year and the house is empty the other 50. I'd like to see them tax the hell out of those people to make it less desirable of a prospect and at least increase the county and state coffers with out-of-state tax money if they remain empty most of the year.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Don't really care. We don't actually live in the city. We're about 2 miles outside of it, but we need more affordable housing and rentals in the area. We don't have a housing shortage in Montana. We have too many empty homes (2nd and 3rd homes and STRs). People come for two weeks a year and the house is empty the other 50. I'd like to see them tax the hell out of those people to make it less desirable of a prospect and at least increase the county and state coffers with out-of-state tax money if they remain empty most of the year.

Those empty house owners are already paying property taxes, requiring no services, and increasing the coffers already aren't they?

It sounds like you have a situation where people can afford to have their houses sit empty? I don't think building more changes that calculus. A new build is going to cost more in rent than an existing build. Unless you are talking about vastly different classes of houses.

Incentivizing those people to rent their existing and empty houses does change the calculus, but I suspect if those people can let their house sit, they don't need or care to rent it. More taxes never seems like a good engine for growth in my mind.
 

Wedgy

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The hat holding may indeed be warranted in a few weeks when BRICS hits. Saw Kenyan official telling investors to ditch the dollar. All I know is dollars are backed with air. Not gold
Not super up on the potential fallout, but, it can't be good.
 
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