For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[PaPaG]

Funny, here is one way to look at it....

If you were to win the lottery what would you do with the money? This comes from Hallett21's post. This topic comes up on occasion and there is one clear winner when it comes to the answer....you buy apartment buildings and single family homes with all the proceeds except about 10% (retain for renovations, prop. management, and property taxes) after taxes. You rent them out and live on the passive income. It doesn't matter if values go down because in the long term, you will always win. You will always have income and your personal financial statement will always go up in the long run. If you spend the money like most recipients so, data shows you will be broke within 5 years.

So what should you do in your life....buy homes and apartment buildings. You may not have 500 million to do so, but in the long run you will always win.

It would depend on a persons age, personal wealth, what their future plans in life are and what they have done in the past business and investment world. I would NEVER buy apartments or manage properties every again, nothing but a pain in the ass. Wife and I had a property management company, prior to that she worked for a firm that had over 170,000 doors and was the 3rd largest management firms in the world Pinnacle out of Seattle bought out by Cushman Wakefield. (multi-family housing aka apartment homes). Everyone thinks it is easy as pie but until you manage properties you will never know. If we had 500 million after taxes won in the lotto I would put half in a Gov Tbills at 3% to be as safe as possible and spend the interest around 4 million a year after taxes, invest another 1/4 in the stock market (125 million) and watch it grow to pass it on to all the family members, all the kids education, first home purchases, payoff all their debt, etc typical stuff, then also donate to former military and vet entities to help take care of our vets, then just sit back with the 125 million cushion left over and buy dream cars and take vacations. Oh last but not least all of my friends would never have to worry about money ever again, well unless they are stupid with their gifts.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I'm in real estate and am biased, but we are seeing a correction right now...We won't see 50% or anything like that, but prices have gone down in most every market. There will not be a melt down...too many have enormous equity in their homes and very low interest rates.

Will those that bought in the last two years be under water....yup! The question is will they walk away? So many walked away from 2009-2013, I have always wondered if that would change the outlook of those that let their homes go or file BK. In the old days, there was a stigma about filing BK or losing their home that people had pride and did not want to be associated with that. So many did walk from 2009-2013 that when a borrower goes upside down, they may just walk this go around. I haven't seen it, but always wondered if this has changed.

There are fewer people today that have bought in the last 2 years and those people have far fewer reasons to walk away and fewer options if they did walk than they did in 2009-2012. The big one is rents and demand for rentals.

If people have not lost their ability to pay that sub 3% loan on a house that may have no equity temporarily.. they are not going anywhere.

Today you'd probably be able to stay in your house for years before you were even foreclosed on.

Besides, based on this morning's revelations it is just BlackRock and Vanguard that are buying up homes.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

So I just went on Redfin and clicked houses in LA, Riverside, High Desert etc. Obviously these are all SoCal so this does not depict the entire US real estate market.

But…… lol. It seems like across the board to afford a home that “costs” less than renting you need to put 20% down. To me that seems like we are headed towards a larger inventory issue.

If you have the money and it makes sense you’ll make a purchase, however I think there are far more who cannot come up with that down payment. Which would force them to continue to rent. More renters would drive up home values no?

I realize the argument is that less buyer demand would soften prices. But what happens when people pull equity out of their homes to buy more doors? My fear is that we are just headed towards a world of landlords and tenants and no one in between.

It seems like across the board to afford a home that “costs” less than renting you need to put 20% down. To me that seems like we are headed towards a larger inventory issue.

I've got a couple of kids with good-paying jobs. The Husband is a PA, and the Wife is an HS Teacher. They have a Toddler. IMHO they manage the Student Loan debt amazingly well.

20% down is a pipe dream and just not gonna happen with today's housing prices. A family member would need to gift that down payment.

If we as a society wanted to help these younger families own homes, it seems we could address the PMI adder for mortgages under 20% equity.
In addition, I can't imagine how the promise to our vets with a VA loan means much when the prices are so high. ( I think we need to protect the rates on these loans and make them extremely attractive for our Vets)

I would rather we talk about this investment than student loan forgiveness. Seems a better thing than rewarding drop outs who racked up Student debt and can't handle their responsability.

Lock the VA mortgage rate at 3% for first-time home buyers, no down. Remove the PMI for qualified creditworthy applicants. This is what i would do if I was king.

My fear is that we are just headed towards a world of landlords and tenants and no one in between.

I agree. That erodes the American Dream. Home ownership is part of what makes us great.

It really bugs me that we are giving away so much free crap, and not putting those who served in our military at the front of the line. No wonder recruitment is in trouble.

 

[PaPaG]

There are fewer people today that have bought in the last 2 years and those people have far fewer reasons to walk away and fewer options if they did walk than they did in 2009-2012. The big one is rents and demand for rentals.

If people have not lost their ability to pay that sub 3% loan on a house that may have no equity temporarily.. they are not going anywhere.

Today you'd probably be able to stay in your house for years before you were even foreclosed on.

Besides, based on this morning's revelations it is just BlackRock and Vanguard that are buying up homes.

LOL, I am still laughing at the MKA comments.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

LOL, I am still laughing at the MKA comments.

We are all still laughing at the BlackRock comments and glaring inaccuracies.

 

[PaPaG]

We again? you counting yourself twice, research my friend research is your friend vs MKAing for all these years...

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I've got a couple of kids with good-paying jobs. The Husband is a PA, and the Wife is an HS Teacher. They have a Toddler. IMHO they manage the Student Loan debt amazingly well.

20% down is a pipe dream and just not gonna happen with today's housing prices. A family member would need to gift that down payment.

If we as a society wanted to help these younger families own homes, it seems we could address the PMI adder for mortgages under 20% equity.
In addition, I can't imagine how the promise to our vets with a VA loan means much when the prices are so high. ( I think we need to protect the rates on these loans and make them extremely attractive for our Vets)

I would rather we talk about this investment than student loan forgiveness. Seems a better thing than rewarding drop outs who racked up Student debt and can't handle their responsability.

Lock the VA mortgage rate at 3% for first-time home buyers, no down. Remove the PMI for qualified creditworthy applicants. This is what i would do if I was king.


I agree. That erodes the American Dream. Home ownership is part of what makes us great.

It really bugs me that we are giving away so much free crap, and not putting those who served in our military at the front of the line. No wonder recruitment is in trouble.

It seems 0 people in government want anyone to own anything. I have observed this for literally all my adult life and the clamp down is just getting tighter and tighter over the last 20 years.

I am in no way saying this is your kids. We bootstrapped and saved the 20% down for our first house. I realize that is tougher to do today than 12 years ago. I am in no way saying this is your kids, but I have no sympathy for those people that say they can't afford a down payment but spend $20K on travel a year, have a $1K/month car lease payment, a $2K phone every other year etc. There are no starving students anymore. No one is "struggling" out of school when they have new clothes, new phones, new cars, and take 3 trips a year.

That said as a society we have devalued grit, and sacrifice. Taking responsibility and doing the right thing gets you almost nowhere in clown world. If you play the loan, default, giveaway BK and rebuild game correctly, you would come out ahead in the end as opposed to doing "the right thing".

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

We again? you counting yourself twice, research my friend research is your friend vs MKAing for all these years...

I think you have 2 hardons now.. that is what you are counting.

 

[DRYHEAT]

Is anyone else getting a headache from reading this thread?

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Is anyone else getting a headache from reading this thread?

You are holding your hat too tight

This thread is going to overtake the Speed thread in views

 

[Member: 71]

Is anyone else getting a headache from reading this thread?

I'm getting a headache from our people wishing the worse for us in the United States.

 

[DRYHEAT]

I'm getting a headache from our people wishing the worse for us in the United States.

People love to speculate, and nobody really knows what’s gonna happen. Stick to an argument long enough it’s bound to come true, then you can pat yourself on the back and tell everybody how smart you are.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

People love to speculate, and nobody really knows what’s gonna happen. Stick to an argument long enough it’s bound to come true, then you can pat yourself on the back and tell everybody how smart you are.

These people have been sticking to this argument for about 10% of their life expectancy here on RDP. You have got to admire the determination at least.

Part of me wants to hire some of these guys to hold my hat for me while I'm boating.

 

[DRYHEAT]

These people have been sticking to this argument for about 10% of their life expectancy here on RDP. You have got to admire the determination at least.

Part of me wants to hire some of these guys to hold my hat for me while I'm boating.

Well eventually all the favorite clichés will come out when we have the infamous “black swan” event and shit goes sideways.

I think I’d rather go to Vegas and gamble then worry about this shit all the time.

 

[monkeyswrench]

It seems 0 people in government want anyone to own anything. I have observed this for literally all my adult life and the clamp down is just getting tighter and tighter over the last 20 years.

I am in no way saying this is your kids. We bootstrapped and saved the 20% down for our first house. I realize that is tougher to do today than 12 years ago. I am in no way saying this is your kids, but I have no sympathy for those people that say they can't afford a down payment but spend $20K on travel a year, have a $1K/month car lease payment, a $2K phone every other year etc. There are no starving students anymore. No one is "struggling" out of school when they have new clothes, new phones, new cars, and take 3 trips a year.

That said as a society we have devalued grit, and sacrifice. Taking responsibility and doing the right thing gets you almost nowhere in clown world. If you play the loan, default, giveaway BK and rebuild game correctly, you would come out ahead in the end as opposed to doing "the right thing".

I'll be damned! Page 40, a bunch of childish jibberish from multiple sources, and then this...this is why I keep coming back to this thread. Every once in awhile there is a glitch in the Matrix, and something new on Groundhog Day.

Your above statement personifies my brother and his wife. Every new Apple toy, trips to Europe, etc... They both have been paying the minimum on their student loans. He received his Masters almost 3 years ago, but "hasn't found the right job" yet. She is high up in the county library system. Her income alone is 150+. This means the new Biden BS sees them as a family under the 200k threshold for loan forgiveness.
In contrast:
My friend is using his GI bill, part time student. He has partial "retirement" from the VA due to limited use of his right leg and neck issues. They measure it as a percentage of disability. He works full time, his wife part time, two kids and a house payment. At times, things get lean. He's still thankful for what he gets.
I've known him a long time. There was a lot taken in trade.

One expects the handouts, and yet would not suffer.
The other has suffered, and pushes on for better days.
One appreciates the "finer things" in life,
the other appreciates everything.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

It seems 0 people in government want anyone to own anything.

We, the people, are the Government when we forget that we are destined to fail.

Part of me wants to hire some of these guys to hold my hat for me while I'm boating.

I'll be happy to hold your hat, and I will buy the cold drinks and spring for some gas.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

We, the people, are the Government when we forget that we are destined to fail.

I'll be happy to hold your hat, and I will buy the cold drinks and spring for some gas.

I may have to take you up on that one sometime.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

I am in no way saying this is your kids. We bootstrapped and saved the 20% down for our first house. I realize that is tougher to do today than 12 years ago. I am in no way saying this is your kids, but I have no sympathy for those people that say they can't afford a down payment

I'm not offended by your post, but I did pause to think about this statement, and I want to challenge you.

What's a fair starter house price in current market conditions? $300K seems like a lucky find. If no one disagrees, let's use that price.
$60K down payment, plus closing costs, is 2% realistic? That puts us with $66K in cash on hand to close with 20% down.

How long would it take you to save $66K from your salary if you did not have any assets? Can't consider current savings.

Hypothetically Speaking
Now let's consider you are fresh out of college, you are marrying your sweetheart, and you want to start a family. I hire new grads in Reno for Marketing Communications roles at about $48K starting, and they accelerate to $60K pretty quick, but they flatten out with a 3%-5% annual increase after that. It takes a promotion to a different role to make six figures.

How long does it take to save $66K?

The 25-year-old me could not stand a chance to save 20% for a down payment. We bought our first home for $90K as a repo with a zero-down VA loan at 7%. The payment was all I could do eating top ramen. (*I am not a Vet, I bought a VA repo, and they carried the paper)

While I agree there are a lot of intitled fawkers out there getting free shit, I'm concerned about the next generation of kids you don't see in the news or on IG.
I want these kids to buy houses and start families because they will care for us when we are old. Like it or not, we are dependent on them and should consider them an investment.

 

[mesquito_creek]

Is it even worth considering that the foreseeable future looks more like the 1970-1980 time frame than 2008… the fed ran out of bullets several years ago. The concept of everyone just swooping in on 6 months and filling their portfolio with cheap real estate is not that simple. Having lived in the way back time machine of the 1970s all I can say is what I have many times.

Turtle always beats the hare….

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I'm not offended by your post, but I did pause to think about this statement, and I want to challenge you.

What's a fair starter house price in current market conditions? $300K seems like a lucky find. If no one disagrees, let's use that price.
$60K down payment, plus closing costs, is 2% realistic? That puts us with $66K in cash on hand to close with 20% down.

How long would it take you to save $66K from your salary if you did not have any assets? Can't consider current savings.

Hypothetically Speaking
Now let's consider you are fresh out of college, you are marrying your sweetheart, and you want to start a family. I hire new grads in Reno for Marketing Communications roles at about $48K starting, and they accelerate to $60K pretty quick, but they flatten out with a 3%-5% annual increase after that. It takes a promotion to a different role to make six figures.

How long does it take to save $66K?

The 25-year-old me could not stand a chance to save 20% for a down payment. We bought our first home for $90K as a repo with a zero-down VA loan at 7%. The payment was all I could do eating top ramen. (*I am not a Vet, I bought a VA repo, and they carried the paper)

While I agree there are a lot of intitled fawkers out there getting free shit, I'm concerned about the next generation of kids you don't see in the news or on IG.
I want these kids to buy houses and start families because they will care for us when we are old. Like it or not, we are dependent on them and should consider them an investment.

Are you asking how long it would take me to save $66k now?

I’m probably not a good example. In my early 20s it took me about 4 years to save around 66k from $0 when I was 20. I had saved $125k for my first house when I was 28. I was with my girlfriend (now wife) at that time and we had no kids. That was all by design. We lived on a budget and controlled our costs.

I’m not saying we should not be investing in the younger generation. We should be teaching them how to structure their lives from middle school. Entering your early 20s with no plan, a useless degree, student loan debt, while making $70k/year, and taking vacations, getting new cars, new phones, and new clothes all the time….while expecting to save and buy a house ain’t gonna happen. You are setting yourself up for a lifetime of living behind the 8 ball. And we have not even touched on retirement savings.

Now add in kids and you are further away from that $66k goal.

It is way more important to make the right moves and start good financial habits in your 20s as opposed to your 40s to set up the rest of your life. That is the stuff no one in their 20s wants to hear though.

 

[Danger Dave]

It is way more important to make the right moves and start good financial habits in your 20s as opposed to your 40s to set up the rest of your life. That is the stuff no one in their 20s wants to hear though.

Can't get any Instagram likes living like that.

 

[CLdrinker]

I think you guys worry more about arguing than anyone here gives 2 fucks about the RE market.

Hell I’m hoping for a crash and I don’t give a shit either way. I’m just over here stimulating the economy buying shit I don’t need.

 

[monkeyswrench]

I did shit wrong...
Thinking to myself how the hell could a person save up that much coin in their early 20's? 18yo me made 7$hr, then moved all the way to a stellar 13$hr. I was also renting a room from age 18. From 18-21, I hustled a 29 Ford, a 64 Impala and a 68 Harley...aside from my daily. Sold all three to come up with about 10% down on my first house, a bank repo. 1999.
Lived a year on bologna and frozen pizzas. Scraped every cent and side work to paint the house and pay for a wedding the next year...
A starter home is now 300k+
Everything is more expensive.

How can a kid do it now?

 

[PaPaG]

These people have been sticking to this argument for about 10% of their life expectancy here on RDP. You have got to admire the determination at least.

Part of me wants to hire some of these guys to hold my hat for me while I'm boating.

Really, fake stats again MKA ? lol try saying anything won't you....lol we are on to you...

 

[PaPaG]

Are you asking how long it would take me to save $66k now?

I’m probably not a good example. In my early 20s it took me about 4 years to save around 66k from $0 when I was 20. I had saved $125k for my first house when I was 28. I was with my girlfriend (now wife) at that time and we had no kids. That was all by design. We lived on a budget and controlled our costs.

I’m not saying we should not be investing in the younger generation. We should be teaching them how to structure their lives from middle school. Entering your early 20s with no plan, a useless degree, student loan debt, while making $70k/year, and taking vacations, getting new cars, new phones, and new clothes all the time….while expecting to save and buy a house ain’t gonna happen. You are setting yourself up for a lifetime of living behind the 8 ball. And we have not even touched on retirement savings.

Now add in kids and you are further away from that $66k goal.

It is way more important to make the right moves and start good financial habits in your 20s as opposed to your 40s to set up the rest of your life. That is the stuff no one in their 20s wants to hear though.

WOW I actually agree on something again in the same year....I learned from some great financial advice like Buffet, Ellison, (not personally but by listening too their interviews and advice) along with some of my clients whom were in the 1%...last but not least to my dad. He used to always say if you start saving and investing in solid stocks at 18-20 you can easily save 2 million dollars by investing a very small amount every paycheck, the more you save when a kid the less you have to save as an adult at 40 to catch up.

 

[Done-it-again]

Is anyone else getting a headache from reading this thread?

I started to read the cliff notes version.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Are you asking how long it would take me to save $66k now?

I’m probably not a good example. In my early 20s it took me about 4 years to save around 66k from $0 when I was 20. I had saved $125k for my first house when I was 28. I was with my girlfriend (now wife) at that time and we had no kids. That was all by design. We lived on a budget and controlled our costs.

I’m not saying we should not be investing in the younger generation. We should be teaching them how to structure their lives from middle school. Entering your early 20s with no plan, a useless degree, student loan debt, while making $70k/year, and taking vacations, getting new cars, new phones, and new clothes all the time….while expecting to save and buy a house ain’t gonna happen. You are setting yourself up for a lifetime of living behind the 8 ball. And we have not even touched on retirement savings.

Now add in kids and you are further away from that $66k goal.

It is way more important to make the right moves and start good financial habits in your 20s as opposed to your 40s to set up the rest of your life. That is the stuff no one in their 20s wants to hear though.

I agree we are not teaching the right stuff; we undervalue trades, and we have preteens with $1000 phones. We are a mess, but there are some good kids out here in rural America that are not doing what we see on social media and on the news.

Maybe sometime when I hold your hat and you drink my beer we can share stories about what made us who we are.

No joke, my Magic 8-ball is sitting on my desk. I am behind it every day.

 

[2FORCEFULL]

I'm not offended by your post, but I did pause to think about this statement, and I want to challenge you.

What's a fair starter house price in current market conditions? $300K seems like a lucky find. If no one disagrees, let's use that price.
$60K down payment, plus closing costs, is 2% realistic? That puts us with $66K in cash on hand to close with 20% down.

How long would it take you to save $66K from your salary if you did not have any assets? Can't consider current savings.

Hypothetically Speaking
Now let's consider you are fresh out of college, you are marrying your sweetheart, and you want to start a family. I hire new grads in Reno for Marketing Communications roles at about $48K starting, and they accelerate to $60K pretty quick, but they flatten out with a 3%-5% annual increase after that. It takes a promotion to a different role to make six figures.

How long does it take to save $66K?

The 25-year-old me could not stand a chance to save 20% for a down payment. We bought our first home for $90K as a repo with a zero-down VA loan at 7%. The payment was all I could do eating top ramen. (*I am not a Vet, I bought a VA repo, and they carried the paper)

While I agree there are a lot of intitled fawkers out there getting free shit, I'm concerned about the next generation of kids you don't see in the news or on IG.
I want these kids to buy houses and start families because they will care for us when we are old. Like it or not, we are dependent on them and should consider them an investment.

check this out,... my youngest son saved up 65k, and paid cash for his first house....3br, 2 bath , 2 car garage , rv parking. block walled, tiled roof....

 

[c_land]

This is what I have been talking about. Builders are in a good spot to sit and wait this time with the crazy gross margins of the last 2 years.

They see the writing on the wall with all the spec completions that are coming year end and early next year. No reason to build into that potentially oversupplied environment with demand coming down.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

I did shit wrong...
Thinking to myself how the hell could a person save up that much coin in their early 20's? 18yo me made 7$hr, then moved all the way to a stellar 13$hr. I was also renting a room from age 18. From 18-21, I hustled a 29 Ford, a 64 Impala and a 68 Harley...aside from my daily. Sold all three to come up with about 10% down on my first house, a bank repo. 1999.
Lived a year on bologna and frozen pizzas. Scraped every cent and side work to paint the house and pay for a wedding the next year...
A starter home is now 300k+
Everything is more expensive.

How can a kid do it now?

You are not alone. RDP makes me hate my parents more every day.

 

[2FORCEFULL]

here's the house...

1601 Watercreek Dr, North Las Vegas, NV 89032 | Zillow

1601 Watercreek Dr, North Las Vegas NV, is a Single Family home that contains 1257 sq ft and was built in 1993.It contains 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms.This home last sold for $143,000 in March 2014. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $366,800, which has decreased by $435 in the last 30...

www.zillow.com

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

This is what I have been talking about. Builders are in a good spot to sit and wait this time with the crazy gross margins of the last 2 years.

They see the writing on the wall with all the spec completions that are coming year end and early next year. No reason to build into that potentially oversupplied environment with demand coming down.

View attachment 1149052

Spec house slab in 2022 = Magic deckboat hull in 2008.

Let’s revisit the cost of those spec house slabs in 12 years I bet in this case those specs home will be worth more than what they will eventually be purchased for.

I’m watching the spec deal you just outlined play out around me. They are building for supply as fast as they can because they had 0 supply 6 months ago. I see several houses getting framed per week right now.

 

[2FORCEFULL]

the sky just fell... price lowered over a half mil..... reduced 574k....

95 Nelson Ln, Lake Havasu City, AZ 86403 | Zillow

95 Nelson Ln, Lake Havasu City AZ, is a Single Family home that contains 1797 sq ft and was built in 2020.It contains 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms.This home last sold for $700,000 in December 2023. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $721,400, which has decreased by $5,048 in the last 30...

www.zillow.com

 

[badgas]

It’s Glendora Pasadena Sanmarino big cities ask them same question to somebody in inland empire riverside county

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

the sky just fell... price lowered over a half mil..... reduced 574k....

95 Nelson Ln, Lake Havasu City, AZ 86403 | Zillow

95 Nelson Ln, Lake Havasu City AZ, is a Single Family home that contains 1797 sq ft and was built in 2020.It contains 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms.This home last sold for $700,000 in December 2023. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $721,400, which has decreased by $5,048 in the last 30...

www.zillow.com

Well played.

 

[monkeyswrench]

You are not alone. RDP makes me hate my parents more every day.

Some people may have had a silver spoon, I got a roofing hatchet. Every damn trial I've faced, from learning to walk again, to dealing with my parents health and eventual passing, were things no amount of money would have eased.

I wasn't ever rich, but I thought I was comfortable. Kind of a harsh illusion that I hope others never know. They say what doesn't kill you only makes you stronger. I'll never be able to buy my way out of anything, but I'll be damn hard to kill

For that, I owe my parents a great debt of gratitude

 

[pronstar]

I did shit wrong...
Thinking to myself how the hell could a person save up that much coin in their early 20's? 18yo me made 7$hr, then moved all the way to a stellar 13$hr. I was also renting a room from age 18. From 18-21, I hustled a 29 Ford, a 64 Impala and a 68 Harley...aside from my daily. Sold all three to come up with about 10% down on my first house, a bank repo. 1999.
Lived a year on bologna and frozen pizzas. Scraped every cent and side work to paint the house and pay for a wedding the next year...
A starter home is now 300k+
Everything is more expensive.

How can a kid do it now?

This is how a typical mortgage looked prior to the Great Depression:

• 50% down payment
• 3-5 year balloon payment
• Continuously refinanced so you never really owned the house

Banksters back then were upfront about how they were screwing you.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

This is how a typical mortgage looked prior to the Great Depression:

• 50% down payment
• 3-5 year balloon payment
• Continuously refinanced so you never really owned the house

Banksters back then were upfront about how they were screwing you.

And you couldn’t walk away…

 

[badgas]

Speaking of " holding our hats " my weather app says 100% chance of rain tonight in Havasu.

 

[mesquito_creek]

check this out,... my youngest son saved up 65k, and paid cash for his first house....3br, 2 bath , 2 car garage , rv parking. block walled, tiled roof....

Rule of 8. (At 8% your money doubles in 8 years) Oddly enough never talked about here. My 16 year old daughter invested her summer job money of 2000 dollars in the S&P index at 16 and it’s at 3600 and she’s only 22. On track to double in the next year or two just like basic Econ 101 teaches!

 

[stillhustlin]

This is what I have been talking about. Builders are in a good spot to sit and wait this time with the crazy gross margins of the last 2 years.

They see the writing on the wall with all the spec completions that are coming year end and early next year. No reason to build into that potentially oversupplied environment with demand coming down.

View attachment 1149052

We are currently switching from 100% spec to partial pre-sold. Getting first right of refusal options on land and will list them for sale only as pre sale with a substantial amount down as non refundable deposit. Most big builders have gotten smart with volume but it’s the little guys that will get their ass kicked in this.

 

[LuauLounge]

Also seeing new subdivisions that are being developed as rentals. Nice places, yards, community feeling. With apartment resales hitting 450k a door, makes sense. People can come up with 3k a month for housing, why sell them. For the renters, easy entry, nice place, want to reloacate, move.

 

[bentprops]

Until I sold my company last month, we did 1,000 deals per year throughout California. We also own a property management company and I'm a minority owner of an escrow company. I have not seen 1 single Blackstone purchase in 10,000 closings since 2010. This is feet-on-the-ground actual experience, not BS reporting to make a headline.

This reminds me of the "Shadow Inventory" that never came to fruition as it was all doomers coming up with far-fetched theories.

It's ok to admit you were wrong and bought into the MSM reporting. We all make mistakes.

How about home buyers of America?

 

[MSum661]

This is what I have been talking about. Builders are in a good spot to sit and wait this time with the crazy gross margins of the last 2 years.

They see the writing on the wall with all the spec completions that are coming year end and early next year. No reason to build into that potentially oversupplied environment with demand coming down.

View attachment 1149052

Time & commodity deflation, like Lumber Futures, is a Wall Street Home Builders best friend.
It also says your existing home in the future is going to be worth less.

Few understand this

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Time & commodity deflation, like Lumber Futures, is a Wall Street Home Builders best friend.
It also says your existing home in the future is going to be worth less.

Few understand this


View attachment 1149270

When looking at it through a single lens of lumber sure. That does not factor in all the other things that go into a house including labor, and the price of land, which is unlikely to go down much if at all in the medium to long term.

 

[MSum661]

Few

 

[C-Ya]

There’s a lot of misinformation in this thread……… Just saying!

 

[NicPaus]

Lumber has been dropping. Copper is still high, abs through the roof. Only other thing I have seen go down is the vinyl plank floors I buy. $1.79 last year peaked at $4 cause of shipping now $3.19.

 

[Havasu blue label]

Every area is different

 

[c_land]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...amily-landlord-to-halt-purchases-in-38-cities

BlackSTONE (Home Partners of America) is stepping out of the buying game in 38 Cities.

There is both a Blackstone and a Blackrock investment bank. I didn't know that until just now. The only Blackstone I knew makes camping griddles lol.

@MSum661 I caught the Michael Gayed reference