For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[hallett21]

If you don’t mind being near the border this is pretty affordable.

2124 Rice Ave, McAllen, TX 78504 - 4 beds/2.5 baths

(MCALLENMLS) Sold: 4 beds, 2.5 baths, 2995 sq. ft. house located at 2124 Rice Ave, McAllen, TX 78504 sold on Jul 19, 2023 after being listed at $385,000. MLS# 406267. DON'T MISS THIS OPPORTUNITY! Seller is offe...

www.redfin.com

 

[Orange Juice]

If you don’t mind being near the border this is pretty affordable.

2124 Rice Ave, McAllen, TX 78504 - 4 beds/2.5 baths

(MCALLENMLS) Sold: 4 beds, 2.5 baths, 2995 sq. ft. house located at 2124 Rice Ave, McAllen, TX 78504 sold on Jul 19, 2023 after being listed at $385,000. MLS# 406267. DON'T MISS THIS OPPORTUNITY! Seller is offe...

www.redfin.com

The only way I’d live in Texas, is if I could shoot from the porch of my house, or fish from my backyard.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Someone get some hats for these guys!!

U.S. home builder confidence extends rebound in February, NAHB says

Confidence among U.S. single-family homebuilders improved for a second straight month in February - and by much more than economists had anticipated - in a fresh signal the housing market was turning a corner after last year's huge slump.

www.reuters.com

 

[bonesfab]

Someone get some hats for these guys!!

U.S. home builder confidence extends rebound in February, NAHB says

Confidence among U.S. single-family homebuilders improved for a second straight month in February - and by much more than economists had anticipated - in a fresh signal the housing market was turning a corner after last year's huge slump.

www.reuters.com

Cough, BULLSHIT, Cough.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Cough, BULLSHIT, Cough.

Tell that to the developers that keep building.. and the people that keep moving in.

There is no glut of inventory… so who creates the inventory?

 

[bonesfab]

Tell that to the developers that keep building.. and the people that keep moving in.

There is no glut of inventory… so who creates the inventory?

If they think the housing crash is over in 6 months and everything is going to be roses and rainbows the rest of the year, I feel sorry for the people who buy into it. Of coarse they are going to say things are wonderful. People wouldn't be buying if the honest truth was spoken. Doesn't matter to me. I will be just fine through this.

 

[Wheeler]

 

[hallett21]

I have my doubts on the tract builders maintaining similar profits for the next few years. Especially in CA.

The cost of building really hasn’t come down. I guess they can put cheaper finishes in. But either way an 1800 sq ft home is looking at 300 a sqft to build.

Title 24
Fire sprinklers
Solar
EV chargers
On and on and on

All of this didn’t exist (in the same capacity) as requirements in builds 15 years ago.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

If they think the housing crash is over in 6 months and everything is going to be roses and rainbows the rest of the year, I feel sorry for the people who buy into it. Of coarse they are going to say things are wonderful. People wouldn't be buying if the honest truth was spoken. Doesn't matter to me. I will be just fine through this.

Yes you will be just fine. You and 3/4 of the population with either paid off houses or bought a house in the last 13 years and have a 3% or lower mortgage.

The thing is people have longer lenses than the next 6 months. You can refinance when rates get lower.

No one said anything was wonderful. Homebuilders said their outlook is improving. Their outlook is improving because a housing collapse and a glut of inventory is less likely today than it was 6 months ago.

KB homes stock was at $25 in September and is $37 today.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I have my doubts on the tract builders maintaining similar profits for the next few years. Especially in CA.

The cost of building really hasn’t come down. I guess they can put cheaper finishes in. But either way an 1800 sq ft home is looking at 300 a sqft to build.

Title 24
Fire sprinklers
Solar
EV chargers
On and on and on

All of this didn’t exist (in the same capacity) as requirements in builds 15 years ago.

The prices for new houses are just going to get higher..

What I’m interested in if this translates to CA real estate prices growing as aggressively as they have in the past. Will people just look past CA because of expense and choose other markets?

Will they just buy in older neighborhoods and do a remodel instead to avoid all that crap?

 

[530RL]

FOREX Dollar rises to six-week peak as strong U.S. retail sales bolster higher-rates scenario

The dollar climbed to a six-week peak against a currency basket after the release of hotter-than-expected U.S. retail sales data on Wednesday, bolstering investors' expectations that the Federal Reserve would keep monetary policy tight for some time to fight stubbornly high inflation.

www.reuters.com

 

[evantwheeler]

I have my doubts on the tract builders maintaining similar profits for the next few years. Especially in CA.

The cost of building really hasn’t come down. I guess they can put cheaper finishes in. But either way an 1800 sq ft home is looking at 300 a sqft to build.

Title 24
Fire sprinklers
Solar
EV chargers
On and on and on

All of this didn’t exist (in the same capacity) as requirements in builds 15 years ago.

But they can't install nat. gas service, so there has to be some savings there!?!

 

[Cole Trickle]

I have my doubts on the tract builders maintaining similar profits for the next few years. Especially in CA.

The cost of building really hasn’t come down. I guess they can put cheaper finishes in. But either way an 1800 sq ft home is looking at 300 a sqft to build.

Title 24
Fire sprinklers
Solar
EV chargers
On and on and on

All of this didn’t exist (in the same capacity) as requirements in builds 15 years ago.

How much track housing was really happening in CA with those rules anyways?

CA isn't booming anymore it's loosing residents.

Rules are softer in other states and most tract housing seem to be in phoenix/vegas area. I imagine they can build a house for much cheaper than $300 sq ft based on volume.

I think big tracks if the property was bought cheap can afford to keep building and just take less profits. What choice do they have shut down mid build and sit on it for years?

Rents are crazy high so it's driving people to buying. Every time the rates dip into the 5's people seem to click the buy now button. If rates got into the 4's and held it would be business as usual and the market would get dumb again imho.

 

[DWC]

I have my doubts on the tract builders maintaining similar profits for the next few years. Especially in CA.

The cost of building really hasn’t come down. I guess they can put cheaper finishes in. But either way an 1800 sq ft home is looking at 300 a sqft to build.

Title 24
Fire sprinklers
Solar
EV chargers
On and on and on

All of this didn’t exist (in the same capacity) as requirements in builds 15 years ago.

CA has to offset the lumber market being down 60% somehow. Nothing like tacking on add on costs when affordability is the largest issue.

 

[hallett21]

How much track housing was really happening in CA with those rules anyways?

CA isn't booming anymore it's loosing residents.

Rules are softer in other states and most tract housing seem to be in phoenix/vegas area. I imagine they can build a house for much cheaper than $300 sq ft based on volume.

I think big tracks if the property was bought cheap can afford to keep building and just take less profits. What choice do they have shut down mid build and sit on it for years?

Rents are crazy high so it's driving people to buying. Every time the rates dip into the 5's people seem to click the buy now button. If rates got into the 4's and held it would be business as usual and the market would get dumb again imho.

Fire sprinklers I think went mandatory in 2011 for residential.

Solar (prep) and EV chargers we’re back in 2016?

Title 24 has been around forever. But roofs, HVAC, electrical, plumbing and every other compliance under the sun has gotten incrementally $tricter every year.

I still see bull dozers cutting in new tract lots in SoCal. Agreed if you are already committed to the build then you need to see it through. Even if it’s at a lesser profit.

Rents are insane and will only push values up. My concern is that market is being bought by the upper class (not even hedge funds) families who have 3-4 rentals. As they continue to accumulate doors it becomes easier and easier for the bank to give them a loan. Meanwhile it becomes exponentially harder for the family of 4 to afford a home.

 

[Cole Trickle]

Fire sprinklers I think went mandatory in 2011 for residential.

Solar (prep) and EV chargers we’re back in 2016?

Title 24 has been around forever. But roofs, HVAC, electrical, plumbing and every other compliance under the sun has gotten incrementally $tricter every year.

I still see bull dozers cutting in new tract lots in SoCal. Agreed if you are already committed to the build then you need to see it through. Even if it’s at a lesser profit.

Rents are insane and will only push values up. My concern is that market is being bought by the upper class (not even hedge funds) families who have 3-4 rentals. As they continue to accumulate doors it becomes easier and easier for the bank to give them a loan. Meanwhile it becomes exponentially harder for the family of 4 to afford a home.

No doubt young families will struggle in CA unless they have dual income,great credit and perhaps some family help for the down payment.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Fire sprinklers I think went mandatory in 2011 for residential.

Solar (prep) and EV chargers we’re back in 2016?

Title 24 has been around forever. But roofs, HVAC, electrical, plumbing and every other compliance under the sun has gotten incrementally $tricter every year.

I still see bull dozers cutting in new tract lots in SoCal. Agreed if you are already committed to the build then you need to see it through. Even if it’s at a lesser profit.

Rents are insane and will only push values up. My concern is that market is being bought by the upper class (not even hedge funds) families who have 3-4 rentals. As they continue to accumulate doors it becomes easier and easier for the bank to give them a loan. Meanwhile it becomes exponentially harder for the family of 4 to afford a home.

Agreed. Just like not everyone can’t afford to live in Newport Beach, not everyone can afford to live in California.

I will say that the “SFR” built in CA today is drastically different than what was built even 20 years ago.

CA only wants to build new condos or new large multi million dollar houses, and nothing in between.

 

[530RL]

How much track housing was really happening in CA with those rules anyways?

CA isn't booming anymore it's loosing residents.

Rules are softer in other states and most tract housing seem to be in phoenix/vegas area. I imagine they can build a house for much cheaper than $300 sq ft based on volume.

I think big tracks if the property was bought cheap can afford to keep building and just take less profits. What choice do they have shut down mid build and sit on it for years?

Rents are crazy high so it's driving people to buying. Every time the rates dip into the 5's people seem to click the buy now button. If rates got into the 4's and held it would be business as usual and the market would get dumb again imho.

For builders we finance, they are buying down rates for the first three years and buyers are responding as they weigh the risks between waiting when building cost inflation is well over 6 percent a year versus hoping to be able to refinance within the three year rate buy down period.

 

[DMF]

But they can't install nat. gas service, so there has to be some savings there!?!

I don't think so. The electrical required for all electric appliances is going to eat up all of the savings.

 

[shintoooo]

There's only 14 houses for sale in my zip code. It was 50 about 3-4 months ago. Prices are not moving much in my area and it's heating back up. We are listing a property for sale in a few weeks. See what happens.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

There's only 14 houses for sale in my zip code. It was 50 about 3-4 months ago. Prices are not moving much in my area and it's heating back up. We are listing a property for sale in a few weeks. See what happens.

Hold yore RDP hat.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

house sold in my tract was listed at 1.48M and dropped list price to $1.45M sold for 1.3M. What a let down to say the least. It looked like it had some upgrades in the listing pics. If inventory is tight I don't get why they sold it so cheap. There was also one listed 875K last week and another on a large lot for 999K listed this week. The prices seem to still be dropping.

 

[hallett21]

house sold in my tract was listed at 1.48M and dropped list price to $1.45M sold for 1.3M. What a let down to say the least. It looked like it had some upgrades in the listing pics. If inventory is tight I don't get why they sold it so cheap. There was also one listed 875K last week and another on a large lot for 999K listed this week. The prices seem to still be dropping.

Location?

 

[bonesfab]

In my hood in Thousand oaks there is one on the corner of a main road. Bought it in August for 750ish, a bunch of work and listed 1.2m. A couple of price drops and a few open houses and it still sits empty. Going to be a hard sell in my opinion. and how much profit left after the time factor. https://www.redfin.com/CA/Thousand-Oaks/1376-E-Avenida-de-los-Arboles-91360/home/4671693

 

[Gonefishin5555]

Location?

Fountain Valley, 92708 but specifically south of 405 to HB border

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

My parents are preparing to drop their price $20k from $835.

 

[hallett21]

In my hood in Thousand oaks there is one on the corner of a main road. Bought it in August for 750ish, a bunch of work and listed 1.2m. A couple of price drops and a few open houses and it still sits empty. Going to be a hard sell in my opinion. and how much profit left after the time factor. https://www.redfin.com/CA/Thousand-Oaks/1376-E-Avenida-de-los-Arboles-91360/home/4671693

As you know main road….

Sister in Law keeps looking out your way but it’s either this or 500k dump

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Retail sales surge 3% at start of 2023 in clear sign economy is still growing

Sales at U.S. retailers jumped 3% in January — the biggest increase in almost two years — as Americans flocked to stores at the start of the new year.

www.marketwatch.com

When will these leveraged asshats stop buying cars, clothes, and going out to eat?

 

[Orange Juice]

Retail sales surge 3% at start of 2023 in clear sign economy is still growing

Sales at U.S. retailers jumped 3% in January — the biggest increase in almost two years — as Americans flocked to stores at the start of the new year.

www.marketwatch.com

When will these leveraged asshats stop buying cars, clothes, and going out to eat?

There’s nothing to buy. These asshats are buying stock and bonds, waiting to pay cash.

 

[Paradox]

We’re helping our youngest Daughter (along with her Boyfriend’s family) get into a place in Phoenix. Kind of centering in on the Scottsdale area. a 2/2 or 2/3 townhome with a side yard (for the dog), a 2 car garage and a fireplace is the ideal set up. 950-1200 Sq, Ft. or so. While I’m not seeing all this in our price range, I am seeing price drops and, decent places for sub $300,000.

we’ve only been looking for a couple of weeks so not in any rush. I hold a Cali Brokers License and am hoping to see some advantage to that now that the market is cooling. Will be testing for my AZ license this year as well.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

https://www.huduser.gov/portal/site...ing-Market-Indicators-Report-January-2023.pdf

This market seems jammed up—very little inventory with unrealistic sales prices. It seems like a Mexican standoff.

Sold in March 2022 $695K Today $875K

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/125-Stoneridge-Dr-Kalispell-MT-59901/212859447_zpid/

Sold in Oct 2019 $595 Today $849K
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/695-Pena-Ln-Lake-Havasu-City-AZ-86406/8332295_zpid/?

I saw a statistic from NAR that said in 2020, the average age of a seller was 60 years old. I still belive the boomers are going to play a role in the direction the housing market turns.


Pre-Covid pricing and a return to a typical sales cycle would be favorable. I'm not sure what trigger we need to free up inventory; I think the banks are wise enough to control inventory if we see a rise in the foreclosure market. Credit card debt is hitting historic highs; the student loans are still on pause; this really seems like a game of chicken or perhaps poker.

I'm looking forward to what spring and early summer bring to the game. Does anyone want to make a prediction? Hats, Belts, Panties, or stockings?

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

https://www.huduser.gov/portal/site...ing-Market-Indicators-Report-January-2023.pdf

This market seems jammed up—very little inventory with unrealistic sales prices. It seems like a Mexican standoff.

Sold in March 2022 $695K Today $875K

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/125-Stoneridge-Dr-Kalispell-MT-59901/212859447_zpid/

Sold in Oct 2019 $595 Today $849K
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/695-Pena-Ln-Lake-Havasu-City-AZ-86406/8332295_zpid/?

I saw a statistic from NAR that said in 2020, the average age of a seller was 60 years old. I still belive the boomers are going to play a role in the direction the housing market turns.


Pre-Covid pricing and a return to a typical sales cycle would be favorable. I'm not sure what trigger we need to free up inventory; I think the banks are wise enough to control inventory if we see a rise in the foreclosure market. Credit card debt is hitting historic highs; the student loans are still on pause; this really seems like a game of chicken or perhaps poker.

I'm looking forward to what spring and early summer bring to the game. Does anyone want to make a prediction? Hats, Belts, Panties, or stockings?

It’s getting to be spring.. the buyers that want out of where they are and thought 6 months ago they were gonna get a deal in winter are gonna blink. Sellers will lower their prices a little and everyone will grumble.

Houses are still going to transact at above 2020 prices.

You are going to be in this standoff until rates start dropping or jobs start looking bad. Then who knows if more sellers or buyers will rush to the table first.

People have not lost their jobs and they have not stopped spending money. You can’t make a housing crash without those.

 

[ChumpChange]

In my hood in Thousand oaks there is one on the corner of a main road. Bought it in August for 750ish, a bunch of work and listed 1.2m. A couple of price drops and a few open houses and it still sits empty. Going to be a hard sell in my opinion. and how much profit left after the time factor. https://www.redfin.com/CA/Thousand-Oaks/1376-E-Avenida-de-los-Arboles-91360/home/4671693

Bad locations only sell in good markets.

 

[Havasu blue label]

https://www.huduser.gov/portal/site...ing-Market-Indicators-Report-January-2023.pdf

This market seems jammed up—very little inventory with unrealistic sales prices. It seems like a Mexican standoff.

Sold in March 2022 $695K Today $875K

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/125-Stoneridge-Dr-Kalispell-MT-59901/212859447_zpid/

Sold in Oct 2019 $595 Today $849K
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/695-Pena-Ln-Lake-Havasu-City-AZ-86406/8332295_zpid/?

I saw a statistic from NAR that said in 2020, the average age of a seller was 60 years old. I still belive the boomers are going to play a role in the direction the housing market turns.


Pre-Covid pricing and a return to a typical sales cycle would be favorable. I'm not sure what trigger we need to free up inventory; I think the banks are wise enough to control inventory if we see a rise in the foreclosure market. Credit card debt is hitting historic highs; the student loans are still on pause; this really seems like a game of chicken or perhaps poker.

I'm looking forward to what spring and early summer bring to the game. Does anyone want to make a prediction? Hats, Belts, Panties, or stockings?

It really depends certain areas will be hit hard

 

[Havasu blue label]

It’s getting to be spring.. the buyers that want out of where they are and thought 6 months ago they were gonna get a deal in winter are gonna blink. Sellers will lower their prices a little and everyone will grumble.

Houses are still going to transact at above 2020 prices.

You are going to be in this standoff until rates start dropping or jobs start looking bad. Then who knows if more sellers or buyers will rush to the table first.

People have not lost their jobs and they have not stopped spending money. You can’t make a housing crash without those.

What about weekend get away homes

 

[Gonefishin5555]

I think we are going to see something similar to a short squeeze in 2023 and we will see people over extend or over pay just to get into a house and this will be caused by the lack of inventory. Inflation seems to be sticking around and the Fed will have to beat it into submission with higher rates and then we get into the recession and an extended downturn in housing after 2023. So short term bullish and midterm(3-5yrs) it will suck ass and anyone looking for an exit strategy should be getting ready for one last hurrah in the market. The other thing in the back of my mind is CA govt will royally fuck the housing market with some kind of govt overreach in rules and regulations such as rent control or other restrictions, I really think that something like this has a good likelihood of occurring in the next few years. I am actually entertaining my thoughts about selling and trying to double the proceeds in the stock market and then ride off into the sunset.

 

[hallett21]

I think we are going to see something similar to a short squeeze in 2023 and we will see people over extend or over pay just to get into a house and this will be caused by the lack of inventory. Inflation seems to be sticking around and the Fed will have to beat it into submission with higher rates and then we get into the recession and an extended downturn in housing after 2023. So short term bullish and midterm(3-5yrs) it will suck ass and anyone looking for an exit strategy should be getting ready for one last hurrah in the market. The other thing in the back of my mind is CA govt will royally fuck the housing market with some kind of govt overreach in rules and regulations such as rent control or other restrictions, I really think that something like this has a good likelihood of occurring in the next few years. I am actually entertaining my thoughts about selling and trying to double the proceeds in the stock market and then ride off into the sunset.

My thoughts are the same. I think 23-24 will be a big push upwards. And just about the time everyone feels safe is when the rug gets pulled. Might get pulled back to 2020-2021 but we haven’t really seen the credit card debt effecting people yet.

Edit: I’m not saying there will be a crash. But there will be a lot of people who get out over the tips of their skis. People will ditch sub 3% fixed rates for higher fixed or adjustable rates to keep up with the Jones. Those who stay in their lane and live within their means will be just fine.

 

[530RL]

Here is another opinion.

The Real Estate Market Is In The Freezer, But Billionaire Grant Cardone Says Investors Will 'Save The Day'

Economists have been calling for a housing crash for several months. Some even predicted that home prices would fall by as much as 30% in 2023. While these claims are understandable considering that rising mortgage rates have priced many would-be buyers out of the market, it appears that a...

www.yahoo.com

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I think we are going to see something similar to a short squeeze in 2023 and we will see people over extend or over pay just to get into a house and this will be caused by the lack of inventory. Inflation seems to be sticking around and the Fed will have to beat it into submission with higher rates and then we get into the recession and an extended downturn in housing after 2023. So short term bullish and midterm(3-5yrs) it will suck ass and anyone looking for an exit strategy should be getting ready for one last hurrah in the market. The other thing in the back of my mind is CA govt will royally fuck the housing market with some kind of govt overreach in rules and regulations such as rent control or other restrictions, I really think that something like this has a good likelihood of occurring in the next few years. I am actually entertaining my thoughts about selling and trying to double the proceeds in the stock market and then ride off into the sunset.

Yes.

 

[hallett21]

Our friends pulled out of this one.

ADU is not permitted. The inspector found that all of the plumbing vents were terminated in the attic lol.

Gas line to ADU was pvc the entire way both below and above ground.

Electrical service is tapped off of the service mast and ran directly to the ADU.

Check out the photos of the countertop. Picture 8

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Redondo-Beach/504-Phelan-Ln-90278/home/6696806

@NicPaus

 

[Englewood]

When do the house prices begin to fall an amount worth talking about? Asking for a friend.

 

[regor]

When do the house prices begin to fall an amount worth talking about? Asking for a friend.

Have you considered San Franshitco?

San Francisco Bay Area Housing Market Crashes, Prices Plunge 35% From Crazy Peak​

In the first 10 months of Housing Bust 2 (now), the median price plunged a lot faster than in the first 10 months of Housing Bust 1 (2007-11)...

FRI FEB 17, AT 10:45 AM

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Have you considered San Franshitco?

San Francisco Bay Area Housing Market Crashes, Prices Plunge 35% From Crazy Peak​

In the first 10 months of Housing Bust 2 (now), the median price plunged a lot faster than in the first 10 months of Housing Bust 1 (2007-11)...

FRI FEB 17, AT 10:45 AM

And they are still above pre covid pricing.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

When do the house prices begin to fall an amount worth talking about? Asking for a friend.

Is your friend a hatmaker?

 

[regor]

And they are still above pre covid pricing.

Shows you how ridiculous post covid pricing was.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Shows you how ridiculous post covid pricing was.

Agreed.

 

[RiverDave]

11 pendings in Havasu today alone and the phones are ringing off the hook.. things are busy again in havasu, so I guess the crash is gonna have to wait until things slow down again. Lol.

 

[attitude]

11 pendings in Havasu today alone and the phones are ringing off the hook.. things are busy again in havasu, so I guess the crash is gonna have to wait until things slow down again. Lol.

So you’re coming home from Miami with that Axopar?

 

[530RL]

As crazy as post Covid pricing may have been, it doesn’t take a math major to figure out how short of a period it takes to justify paying 20 percent more on price when your financing costs were 4 percent per year less.

 

[RiverDave]

So you’re coming home from Miami with that Axopar?

No, none of you fuckers bought a house! Weekend ain’t over yet though lol