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For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

Xtrmwakeboarder

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pronstar said:
Half my mortgage payment is property taxes.

I pay around 2.4% IIRC…relatively high property taxes work against rapid price appreciation. So we get slower, more controlled appreciation.
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2.6% here and we’ve had at least 25% appreciation over the sale price in 8 months. Thankfully the first year was at improved land value.
 
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Xtrmwakeboarder said:
2.6% here and we’ve had at least 25% appreciation over the sale price in 8 months. Thankfully the first year was at improved land value.
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I have friends in Ladera Ranch that are in the low 2% range. One is spending $30k a year just in property taxes.
 
stokerwhore

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Around here, the middle of last year saw a slight dip in the price of a new house after the end of the first quarter when prices peaked. Now the prices are back up to where they were again. I don't look at houses for sale I look at what actually sold, when and for how much. Matter of a fact our builder just keeps providing perfect comps as he builds and sells (completes about a build a month) exact versions of our house in the same area with exactly the same size lot, same model, same, same, etc. i'm in BFE AZ....and we're closed! :p
 
PaPaG

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HMM, so we have a report this morning that housing sales hit a 12 year low, I know I know the house by so and so area sold in 1 hour for more than asking and a friend of a friend sold their home in 2 days, and you can't find a home in so and so area for under $$$ etc.....a few areas have quick sales at decent prices and a small portion of the hot spot markets are still selling BUT the general market across the entire US is DOWN DOWN DOWN and going further as the rate hikes start to catch up to actual sales and as the FEDS eye another .50 rate.. sounds like it is slowly getting windy...
 
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PaPaG said:
HMM, so we have a report this morning that housing sales hit a 12 year low, I know I know the house by so and so area sold in 1 hour for more than asking and a friend of a friend sold their home in 2 days, and you can't find a home in so and so area for under $$$ etc.....a few areas have quick sales at decent prices and a small portion of the hot spot markets are still selling BUT the general market across the entire US is DOWN DOWN DOWN and going further as the rate hikes start to catch up to actual sales and as the FEDS eye another .50 rate.. sounds like it is slowly getting windy...
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At January's sales pace, it would take 2.9 months to exhaust the current inventory of existing homes up from 1.6 months a year ago. A four-to-seven-month supply is viewed as a healthy balance between supply and demand.


That was also part of the same news story. If you saw my last post this is what I am saying about a possible squeeze coming. It’s like a tug a war on pricing right now so we need to see which way it swings this spring. The other thing is west and south saw volume increases from December so it’s already bottomed.(maybe)
 
PaPaG

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12 year low is 12 year low no arguing FACTS, and it is going lower all across the country. I don't care what current inventory is, when prices and rates go higher sales slow equals a slowdown and inventory grows. Watch it grow more and more as we head further into 2023 and watch prices keep dropping across the country... PS I agree that we need to see where we are going this spring, I think the picture should be a bit more clear.
 
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hallett21

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PaPaG said:
12 year low is 12 year low no arguing FACTS, and it is going lower all across the country. I don't care what current inventory is, when prices and rates go higher sales slow equals a slowdown and inventory grows. Watch it grow more and more as we head further into 2023 and watch prices keep dropping across the country... PS I agree that we need to see where we are going this spring, I think the picture should be a bit more clear.
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Sales might also slow due to landlords accumulating rentals as well. These homes are almost removed from the potential sales pool. Combine that with the fact that new construction costs are through the roof.

interesting chart



C11A5567-7BB1-4C9E-A4C8-8E3210453509.png
 
2Driver

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Cdog said:
I just listed this home Thursday. Received a full price offer mid day yesterday.

https://www.flexmls.com/share/8B4PV/7105-E-HIBISCUS-WAY-Scottsdale-AZ-85266
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Snow birds love that community. The right places for reasonable prices are selling. Friends just bought a townhome in Carefree. It was very unique. I told them at lunch after touring it, by the time we are done eating it will be sold. They ran back made a full offer and there were already 2 full offers in.

Fringe area subdivisions are getting beat up, but that is SOP. Ive stopped lending
 
NicPaus

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PaPaG said:
HMM, so we have a report this morning that housing sales hit a 12 year low, I know I know the house by so and so area sold in 1 hour for more than asking and a friend of a friend sold their home in 2 days, and you can't find a home in so and so area for under $$$ etc.....a few areas have quick sales at decent prices and a small portion of the hot spot markets are still selling BUT the general market across the entire US is DOWN DOWN DOWN and going further as the rate hikes start to catch up to actual sales and as the FEDS eye another .50 rate.. sounds like it is slowly getting windy...
Click to expand...



Are you looking to buy deals all across the US? For Me all I care about is the local market. If Indiana drops in price I could care less. What area are you looking to buy in?

I appreciate all the real estate updates you provide. But they don't really affect many on here as nobody is looking to purchase there. Seems Havasu, AZ and CA are the main areas for this forum.
 
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Gonefishin5555 said:
At January's sales pace, it would take 2.9 months to exhaust the current inventory of existing homes up from 1.6 months a year ago. A four-to-seven-month supply is viewed as a healthy balance between supply and demand.


That was also part of the same news story. If you saw my last post this is what I am saying about a possible squeeze coming. It’s like a tug a war on pricing right now so we need to see which way it swings this spring. The other thing is west and south saw volume increases from December so it’s already bottomed.(maybe)
Click to expand...

Haven’t you learned yet? You are only allowed to cherry pick FACTS that contribute to a hat holding narrative. All others are ignored, even if they come from the same source, even the same article.

I though your post regarding a squeeze was insightful. 👍🏻
 
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hallett21 said:
Sales might also slow due to landlords accumulating rentals as well. These homes are almost removed from the potential sales pool. Combine that with the fact that new construction costs are through the roof.

interesting chart



View attachment 1202003
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That is a wonderful chart of the opportunity costs associated with sitting on the bench for 7 years waiting for a crash.
 
Englewood

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PaPaG said:
12 year low is 12 year low no arguing FACTS, and it is going lower all across the country. I don't care what current inventory is, when prices and rates go higher sales slow equals a slowdown and inventory grows. Watch it grow more and more as we head further into 2023 and watch prices keep dropping across the country... PS I agree that we need to see where we are going this spring, I think the picture should be a bit more clear.
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Sales....Not prices. There is a huge inventory shortage. Sales have dropped off of a cliff, prices have not. All your point shows is that sellers have decided to stay. We have been saying that for 50 pages.
 
RiverDave

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This thread isn’t any different than the last three Speed threads.. two positions arguing futures of hypothesis at best..

PapaG and Havasu blue label want it to crash along with some others.. LOF and others are saying it already dipped and isn’t going to crash..

80 something pages of it and still not one party has been exactly right.. and realistically we could go back over the last six months of hard data and have a better understanding than any of these so called links
 
Havasu blue label

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RiverDave said:
This thread isn’t any different than the last three Speed threads.. two positions arguing futures of hypothesis at best..

PapaG and Havasu blue label want it to crash along with some others.. LOF and others are saying it already dipped and isn’t going to crash..

80 something pages of it and still not one party has been exactly right.. and realistically we could go back over the last six months of hard data and have a better understanding than any of these so called havasu is on a downward swing but if you tell yourself it’s not that’s your opinion
Click to expand...
 
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RiverDave said:
This thread isn’t any different than the last three Speed threads.. two positions arguing futures of hypothesis at best..

PapaG and Havasu blue label want it to crash along with some others.. LOF and others are saying it already dipped and isn’t going to crash..

80 something pages of it and still not one party has been exactly right.. and realistically we could go back over the last six months of hard data and have a better understanding than any of these so called links
Click to expand...

I think the same people would draw the same conclusions from the last year of data.

No one will ever agree, everyone is dug into their positions. :)

X person lowered their $1.4m property $300k to get it to sell and it was on the market 6 months.

Is that a crash, or was the house just priced too high to begin with?

Y person sold their house in a week for asking just yesterday. Did they just give it away or is the smaller market still active and still commanding historically high prices?
 
Cdog

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There were several starter homes in the cave creek area that listed in the high 3’s to low 4’s that got scooped up over the weekend. Would have made great rentals. I blasted them out to some of my buyers but the early birds got the worms.
 
hallett21

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RiverDave said:
It’s literally like the speed thread.. ridiculous
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One benefit is that we can see how local markets are trending by members posting listings.

The LA people probably aren’t following the Phoenix or Vegas market so it’s nice to have the updates.

All I know is anything I wanted to buy has only maintained or gone up in cost lol.
 
TCHB

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RiverDave said:
11 pendings in Havasu today alone and the phones are ringing off the hook.. things are busy again in havasu, so I guess the crash is gonna have to wait until things slow down again. Lol.
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who are the buyers?
 
RiverDave

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hallett21 said:
One benefit is that we can see how local markets are trending by members posting listings.

The LA people probably aren’t following the Phoenix or Vegas market so it’s nice to have the updates.

All I know is anything I wanted to buy has only maintained or gone up in cost lol.
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Well there is one serious draw back to the thread too.. I don’t make predictions of what the market is going to do because I don’t think it’s right for me to do so..

However if anyone in the re biz says things are going ok or not crashing then they are told they are doing it for their own financial benefit and are liars etc.. which has happened to OldSchoolBoats several times.

But we got these nimrods running around screaming the theatre is on fire and it’s financial Armageddon every two seconds right in the middle of my main lead source for my real estate team..

If I say they are wrong then I’m a liar and a crook.. even if they haven’t been right in over a year.. at what point do ya say “the theatre isn’t on fire buddy..”
 
hallett21

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RiverDave said:
Well there is one serious draw back to the thread too.. I don’t make predictions of what the market is going to do because I don’t think it’s right for me to do so..

However if anyone in the re biz says things are going ok or not crashing then they are told they are doing it for their own financial benefit and are liars etc.. which has happened to OldSchoolBoats several times.

But we got these nimrods running around screaming the theatre is on fire and it’s financial Armageddon every two seconds right in the middle of my main lead source for my real estate team..

If I say they are wrong then I’m a liar and a crook.. even if they haven’t been right in over a year.. at what point do ya say “the theatre isn’t on fire buddy..”
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💯
 
D19

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I pulled this data from CoreLogic. I wish I could go back into 2007 but they ony have data to Jan. 1, 2008. 2006-2007 numbers would be very interesting. All I can offer you from those days are memories and spit ball numbers. LOL

I'd offer Mohave County, AZ but they only banked data to 2017. Western Arizona MLS is very archaic compared to So Cal.

If anyone has access to data further back, please share! :)


I chose 4 random cities in 4 counties of So Cal to analyze.

AVG Median Sales (closed) price May 2022
***This was the peak high for most areas in So Cal***

Upland (San Bernadino) $812,000
Yorba Linda (Orange) $1,300,000
Corona (Riverside) $750,000
Covina (LA) $783,500

AVG Median Sales (closed) Feb 1st 2023

Upland (San Bernadino) $675,000
Yorba Linda (Orange) $1,000,000
Corona (Riverside) $678,000
Covina (LA) $695,500


For entertainment purposes, lets compare current pending sales to 2008 pending sales...


Number of Pending Sales Jan 2008

Upland (San Bernadino) 23
Yorba Linda (Orange) 36
Corona (Riverside)183
Covina (LA) 21

Number of Pending Sales as of Feb 1st 2023

Upland (San Bernadino) 28
Yorba Linda (Orange) 29
Corona (Riverside)107
Covina (LA) 23


Ya Ya.. I know, the inventory was higher back then. I agree, so lets take a look...


Active Listings Jan. 2008

Upland (San Bernadino) 514
Yorba Linda (Orange) 474
Corona (Riverside) 3,505
Covina (LA) 515

Active Listings as of Feb 1st 2023

Upland (San Bernadino) 85
Yorba Linda (Orange) 84
Corona (Riverside) 294
Covina (LA) 69


Wow! Despite active inventory Today's pending sales numbers are not far off from when we were in a declared Great Recession!

Will the average closed prices drop more? I don't know; I think we'd need more inventory. What will it take for an explosion of inventory? ... I guess that depends on your personal beliefs.

It's a weird market for sure. What's the future hold? I don't know. :)

I tell people that if you want to buy or sell right now, I can help you. If you want answers as to if you should wait or not, you need a palm reader not a realtor. LOL
 
Orange Juice

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Cdog said:
There were several starter homes in the cave creek area that listed in the high 3’s to low 4’s that got scooped up over the weekend. Would have made great rentals. I blasted them out to some of my buyers but the early birds got the worms.
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Appraisers are struggling in Phoenix.
$400sqft is all that’s left on the market.
 
traquer

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Cdog said:
There were several starter homes in the cave creek area that listed in the high 3’s to low 4’s that got scooped up over the weekend. Would have made great rentals. I blasted them out to some of my buyers but the early birds got the worms.
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Early bird gets the worm. And early bird gets their worm sucked.

My takeaway after 100 pages is to keep grinding and making $$$ in the meantime. Everything is better with more money including the houses and boats and women
 
530RL

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traquer said:
Early bird gets the worm. And early bird gets their worm sucked.

My takeaway after 100 pages is to keep grinding and making $$$ in the meantime. Everything is better with more money including the houses and boats and women
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You are absolutely right.

No one knows. So keep grinding it out and live life. If your house goes up or down who cares, it is where one lives and keeps their stuff.

No one cares that a new boat goes down a bunch once one uses it a bunch, who cares if the house goes down.

Don’t worry about stuff you can’t control. Focus on things you can control.
 
PaPaG

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NicPaus said:
Are you looking to buy deals all across the US? For Me all I care about is the local market. If Indiana drops in price I could care less. What area are you looking to buy in?

I appreciate all the real estate updates you provide. But they don't really affect many on here as nobody is looking to purchase there. Seems Havasu, AZ and CA are the main areas for this forum.
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Yes across the US, Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Northern Nevada, and a few other areas of interest for sure, my thoughts are that once the slower and lower demand areas start to get close to bottom in larger numbers the higher demand areas could should probably would follow but with not as much margins and drops but they will drop (IMO). AZ and NV are getting hit right now and more to come, CA has been hit in some areas but in my opinion much more to follow, time will tell though.
 
PaPaG

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Either side will never be exactly right, if so we would all be real estate and stock market multi-millionaires. For some that are confused or are not fully understanding of what a correction or crash in the housing market is, including so many real estate and finance experts, here is a great article giving a basic definition, take it for what it is worth.

From a housing investment site:

Despite a number of people throwing down the terms “correction” and “crash,” not a lot of people know what these terms mean. Just so we’re all on the same page, we thought we’d put together a quick guide. This way you millennials will understand what all of those old bears mean (or if they’re just making s**t up).

What Is A Real Estate Correction?​

A real estate correction is relatively minor drop in the market. The market is in correction territory when the home price index falls not more than 10% from the highest price within a year. Corrections happen with greater frequency than you might expect, and are generally good for balancing market demand.

What Is A Real Estate Crash?​

A real estate crash is much less common than the media would have you think. When the home price index falls by more than 10% from the 52 week peak value, you’re experiencing a crash. Crashes are relatively rare, and are usually accompanied by a strong decline in economic macros. Strong declines in macros are also known as recessions.
 
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