For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[NicPaus]

Houses are moving fast by me again. Have been looking at properties with my realtor last 2 weekends for clients. Market has dropped from last year. But not to pre covid prices. Inventory is still low.

 

[Havasu blue label]

Houses are moving fast by me again. Have been looking at properties with my realtor last 2 weekends for clients. Market has dropped from last year. But not to pre covid prices. Inventory is still low.

It’s California and the South Bay always a plus

 

[NicPaus]

It’s California and the South Bay always a plus

It was slow last month. Sunday a regular customer made a cash offer on a property we looked at. Realtors comment after they left. Was better get the 3rd crew ready again. Which means 12-15 hour days on my end to keep them busy.

 

[TCHB]

Arizona home prices. Will the drop another $75k in the next 24 months?

Arizona Housing Market: House Prices & Trends | Redfin

Wondering how competitive the Arizona housing market is? Find Arizona's median house price, demand, supply and more with Redfin. Learn more!

www.redfin.com

 

[530RL]

Arizona home prices. Will the drop another $75k in the next 24 months?

Arizona Housing Market: House Prices & Trends | Redfin

Wondering how competitive the Arizona housing market is? Find Arizona's median house price, demand, supply and more with Redfin. Learn more!

www.redfin.com

Median price is an interesting measure given a market can have median price dropping while price per square foot is rising and vice versa

 

[Havasu blue label]

Arizona home prices. Will the drop another $75k in the next 24 months?

Arizona Housing Market: House Prices & Trends | Redfin

Wondering how competitive the Arizona housing market is? Find Arizona's median house price, demand, supply and more with Redfin. Learn more!

www.redfin.com

Yes sir it will drop havasu will be hit very slow . I call 2 years of smiles then it’s over

 

[DrunkenSailor]

The fed is nearing their rate hike ceiling and they aren't sure if it is going to be enough to bring inflation back down to 2%. The strong jobs market isn't helping. Now the fed is saying that they may need to continue rate hikes past the preset ceiling.

The bond market is taking this news poorly. With the 2 year gaining almost 50 basis points starting Friday. Market was stabilizing and rates were begining to come down as securitization spreads tightened. The sun was shining for a brief moment there and things were looking better. Now storm clouds are back.

It will be interesting to see what spreads look like on the next few printed deals. A couple of months ago we were 250+ in January that number was under 150 which is a huge market movement that showed returning stability. If spreads remain tight rates will hold lower. If they widen back out rates will go up.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Let's see how fast this one goes. It should be quick at that price per square foot.

3430 Fiesta Dr, Lake Havasu City, AZ 86404 | Zillow

3430 Fiesta Dr, Lake Havasu City AZ, is a Single Family home that contains 1688 sq ft and was built in 1971.It contains 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms.This home last sold for $516,000 in October 2023. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $538,500, which has decreased by $3,887 in the last 30...

www.zillow.com

 

[pronstar]

The fed is nearing their rate hike ceiling and they aren't sure if it is going to be enough to bring inflation back down to 2%. The strong jobs market isn't helping. Now the fed is saying that they may need to continue rate hikes past the preset ceiling.

The bond market is taking this news poorly. With the 2 year gaining almost 50 basis points starting Friday. Market was stabilizing and rates were begining to come down as securitization spreads tightened. The sun was shining for a brief moment there and things were looking better. Now storm clouds are back.

It will be interesting to see what spreads look like on the next few printed deals. A couple of months ago we were 250+ in January that number was under 150 which is a huge market movement that showed returning stability. If spreads remain tight rates will hold lower. If they widen back out rates will go up.

Proof that the Fed literally has no idea what they’re doing.

But they “have to do something” so people have confidence in the system, and that’s the problem.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

Proof that the Fed literally has no idea what they’re doing.

But they “have to do something” so people have confidence in the system, and that’s the problem.

It can be argued that raising rates in the current environment is not the correct tool to fight the factors that are driving inflation this time around. Unfortunately it's the only tool the fed really has. Congress has some better tools at their disposal but they are committed to buying votes and gaining wealth from lobbyists making things worse.

 

[Jefftowz]

My wife had an open house last weekend, 1200 sq ft amazing backyard in Thousand Oaks listed $865,000, had over 140 people walk in in 2 days. In escrow at $1m.

The rebound is happening now.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Let's see how fast this one goes. It should be quick at that price per square foot.

3430 Fiesta Dr, Lake Havasu City, AZ 86404 | Zillow

3430 Fiesta Dr, Lake Havasu City AZ, is a Single Family home that contains 1688 sq ft and was built in 1971.It contains 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms.This home last sold for $516,000 in October 2023. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $538,500, which has decreased by $3,887 in the last 30...

www.zillow.com

Pending. I suspected this one would go quickly.

 

[brgrcru]

My wife had an open house last weekend, 1200 sq ft amazing backyard in Thousand Oaks listed $865,000, had over 140 people walk in in 2 days. In escrow at $1m.

The rebound is happening now.

Thousand Oaks where money is no problem
Even in a depression

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Thousand Oaks where money is no problem
Even in a depression

No one owns a hat in TO.

 

[brgrcru]

No one owns a hat in TO.

Millions oaks is the new name

 

[Havasu blue label]

My wife had an open house last weekend, 1200 sq ft amazing backyard in Thousand Oaks listed $865,000, had over 140 people walk in in 2 days. In escrow at $1m.

The rebound is happening now.

It’s California and a great area

 

[bonesfab]

My wife had an open house last weekend, 1200 sq ft amazing backyard in Thousand Oaks listed $865,000, had over 140 people walk in in 2 days. In escrow at $1m.

The rebound is happening now.

I like hearing that but I am not selling mine.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

It’s California and a great area

Don’t forget the weather it’s freakin awesome this week

 

[Cdog]

"Last year a trend emerged where many homeowners decided to not move due to their low underlying mortgage rates. This trend has deepened over the few months. There are substantially fewer sellers coming onto the market which is exacerbating the inventory crisis."
- Steven Thomas

 

[TimeBandit]

I was never able to get a low APR on my rental, because I did not live there... so I had a 4 3/8% loan from 2010 I just buckled down and paid off.

I track that property on Zillow and Opendoor, it seems the post boom bottom was December 2022, the offer price/Zillow price is up $20k from December.

My middle daughter is selling her 2BR condo in Thousand Oaks next month, It had a nice gain over the past 2 years they owned it. The problem will be finding the starter home they want to move up to. The story of a Million Dollar 1200 square foot house means selling good, buying will be expensive!

 

[Englewood]

Just sold a house in the hood...Listed 585k, sold with 17 offers for almost 650k.

Many new deals this last week...

 

[Looking Glass]

Just sold a house in the hood...Listed 585k, sold with 17 offers for almost 650k.

Many new deals this last week...

0


SEE!! EVERYTHING IS FINE!!

 

[pronstar]

I was never able to get a low APR on my rental, because I did not live there... so I had a 4 3/8% loan from 2010 I just buckled down and paid off.

I track that property on Zillow and Opendoor, it seems the post boom bottom was December 2022, the offer price/Zillow price is up $20k from December.

My middle daughter is selling her 2BR condo in Thousand Oaks next month, It had a nice gain over the past 2 years they owned it. The problem will be finding the starter home they want to move up to. The story of a Million Dollar 1200 square foot house means selling good, buying will be expensive!

Just some general info for others ...as an investor owning a home with no mortgage, there are unscrupulous people who will target you to try and take the equity.

 

[TimeBandit]

Just some general info for others ...as an investor owning a home with no mortgage, there are unscrupulous people who will target you to try and take the equity.

More explanation please.....

 

[hallett21]

I was never able to get a low APR on my rental, because I did not live there... so I had a 4 3/8% loan from 2010 I just buckled down and paid off.

I track that property on Zillow and Opendoor, it seems the post boom bottom was December 2022, the offer price/Zillow price is up $20k from December.

My middle daughter is selling her 2BR condo in Thousand Oaks next month, It had a nice gain over the past 2 years they owned it. The problem will be finding the starter home they want to move up to. The story of a Million Dollar 1200 square foot house means selling good, buying will be expensive!

No way they can keep it as a rental?

 

[NicPaus]

No way they can keep it as a rental?

Rents are crazy. At that san pedro rental now you did the main panel on. Listed for $2950. 17 applications in 4 days. 3/1 850 sq ft in the hood. No garage.

 

[hallett21]

Rents are crazy. At that san pedro rental now you did the main panel on. Listed for $2950. 17 applications in 4 days. 3/1 850 sq ft in the hood. No garage.

That’s insane considering you or I didn’t want my truck out of site lol

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

"Last year a trend emerged where many homeowners decided to not move due to their low underlying mortgage rates. This trend has deepened over the few months. There are substantially fewer sellers coming onto the market which is exacerbating the inventory crisis."
- Steven Thomas

YOU DON'T SAY!!!!

 

[hallett21]

I just hope we don’t see people give up affordable mortgages and over extend themselves. I know it’s inevitable but these sub 3% mortgages are going to be something we talk about in 15 years. And my guess is that by then few will have held them/made them into cash generating rentals. I think the majority will have sold and upgraded.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I just hope we don’t see people give up affordable mortgages and over extend themselves. I know it’s inevitable but these sub 3% mortgages are going to be something we talk about in 15 years. And my guess is that by then few will have held them/made them into cash generating rentals. I think the majority will have sold and upgraded.

That is unpossible. All the people that bought houses from 2009 to 2022 at low rates or refied into low rates all got helocs and are levered beyond human comprehension. They are all 1 paycheck away from financial ruin and a reckoning unlike anything you’ve ever seen is coming in 18 months. It is then and only then, the smart money will come in and and buy the homes that they have been waiting a decade to buy, at prices that are double what they were a decade ago.

 

[hallett21]

That is unpossible. All the people that bought houses from 2009 to 2022 at low rates or refied into low rates all got helocs and are levered beyond human comprehension. They are all 1 paycheck away from financial ruin and a reckoning unlike anything you’ve ever seen is coming in 18 months. It is then and only then, the smart money will come in and and buy the homes that they have been waiting a decade to buy, at prices that are double what they were a decade ago.

If people would just stay in their budget in life they’d be ok.

My prediction is that we are gonna pump through 23 with real estate leading the charge. But this could be where people get caught seeing housing only increase.

We can’t avoid the huge amount of CC debt. And that only points to a lot of people over extended.

Edit: an increase in housing allows people to use equity to wipe that debt. Short term solution that I can see the Fed/Gov/whoever endorsing.

 

[TimeBandit]

No way they can keep it as a rental?

Nope they need the equity for a down payment on the next one one income right now due to a 2-year-old at home.

 

[hallett21]

Nope they need the equity for a down payment on the next one one income right now due to a 2-year-old at home.

If it was rented could they make it work?

@OldSchoolBoats is gonna crack my knuckles with a ruler but I’m pretty sure the mortgage broker only needs to see a signed lease

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

If people would just stay in their budget in life they’d be ok.

My prediction is that we are gonna pump through 23 with real estate leading the charge. But this could be where people get caught seeing housing only increase.

We can’t avoid the huge amount of CC debt. And that only points to a lot of people over extended.

Edit: an increase in housing allows people to use equity to wipe that debt. Short term solution that I can see the Fed/Gov/whoever endorsing.

It’s all about jobs. We are still net gaining them. Will will slide into trouble when we begin net loosing them month over month. And it will take the better part of a year of that to affect housing significantly.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

If it was rented could they make it work?

@OldSchoolBoats is gonna crack my knuckles with a ruler but I’m pretty sure the mortgage broker only needs to see a signed lease

Yeah only need a lease agreement if it is a departing residence on a conventional loan in order to offset the payment from DTI calculations.

 

[bonesfab]

If people would just stay in their budget in life they’d be ok.

My prediction is that we are gonna pump through 23 with real estate leading the charge. But this could be where people get caught seeing housing only increase.

We can’t avoid the huge amount of CC debt. And that only points to a lot of people over extended.

Edit: an increase in housing allows people to use equity to wipe that debt. Short term solution that I can see the Fed/Gov/whoever endorsing.

Don't forget about the car debt that is swirling the bowl.

 

[mesquito_creek]

The other 62% have mortgages at 3%…. Supply is the problem not over leveraged!

 

[pronstar]

More explanation please.....

Here’s a good article about it

How to Discourage Lawsuits | Asset Protection Attorneys | The Presser Law Firm, P.A.

Learn the best method for discouraging lawsuits. Don't leave your assets unprotected! Call an experienced national Asset Protection lawyer from The Presser Law Firm, P.A. today for more information.

www.assetprotectionattorneys.com

 

[TimeBandit]

Here’s a good article about it

How to Discourage Lawsuits | Asset Protection Attorneys | The Presser Law Firm, P.A.

Learn the best method for discouraging lawsuits. Don't leave your assets unprotected! Call an experienced national Asset Protection lawyer from The Presser Law Firm, P.A. today for more information.

www.assetprotectionattorneys.com

Thanks for another reason to keep me up at night! Thinking about earthquakes is bad enough.

I could never get refinancing or a HELOC since I did not live there, It seems having a hard money mortgage would be a very expensive way to get some level of lawsuit protection.

I assume they are talking about a lexisnexis type database search? Does it have banking information or just property?

 

[Orange Juice]

"Last year a trend emerged where many homeowners decided to not move due to their low underlying mortgage rates. This trend has deepened over the few months. There are substantially fewer sellers coming onto the market which is exacerbating the inventory crisis."
- Steven Thomas

My neighborhood in NE Phoenix is rock solid, but the average age is about 60-70 years old.

Noticed prices creeping up a little, last 30 days.

We have 2 VRBO style houses on my street. Our driveways are long, and every lot is 1/4 +, so it’s not been an issue. They do get loud while using the pool, but who doesn’t?

 

[pronstar]

Thanks for another reason to keep me up at night! Thinking about earthquakes is bad enough.

I could never get refinancing or a HELOC since I did not live there, It seems having a hard money mortgage would be a very expensive way to get some level of lawsuit protection.

I assume they are talking about a lexisnexis type database search? Does it have banking information or just property?

County record, LexisNexus, the info is out there if folks are willing to dig for it.

Why can’t you refinance it or otherwise pull equity?

Things like banking info isn’t really relevant…if they see an unencumbered house with an out-of-town owner, they’ve got enough to start digging.

They might slip and fall on your driveway.
Heck, they might be trying to rent the place.

You’ve gotta have your head on a swivel these days, and protect your treasure as much as you’re able…because there are thieves out there who will stop at nothing to take your treasure.

 

[rrrr]

Four months after I sold my house in Plano (July 7, 2022), the house across the street was purchased by a flipper. Some modest interior upgrades were done, and it was placed on the market for $85K more than my similar sized house with a pool sold for.

I drove by today, since I was last on the street a month ago the brick exterior has been painted white and the asking price was dropped $100K in January.

It's a data point.

 

[RiverDave]

So there’s no inventory and house prices are going up again?

At what point to we put our hats back on?

While this thread has been interesting to say the least I wouldn’t take the inevitable doom and gloom with too much value..

The fact is nobody knows what happens next even if the writing is on the wall. The writing keeps changing and the can keeps getting kicked down the road.. just like it has been since the US went off the gold standard.

RD

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

So there’s no inventory and house prices are going up again?

At what point to we put our hats back on?

While this thread has been interesting to say the least I wouldn’t take the inevitable doom and gloom with too much value..

The fact is nobody knows what happens next even if the writing is on the wall. The writing keeps changing and the can keeps getting kicked down the road.. just like it has been since the US went off the gold standard.

RD

Agent partner of mine just listed a house. Increased price by $30k right before going live. They have 17 showings scheduled within the first 8 hours on market. House will have multiple offers before the end of weekend and will sell for over asking.

In my opinion, the housing market bottomed already. Hopefully the smart money around here jumped on those deals...........

 

[EmpirE231]

Dead cat bounce. Fact is, unemployment will rise (historically when rates are raised, unemployment follows). Payrolls for those with overinflated Covid payroll offers will be cut back down.

People are running out of money. PPP money has been spent, EIDL loans are now coming due. ERC credits are still getting paid out, and some companies are raking in huge on those ERC credits. But it’s all running out and the party is almost over. Grab a hat

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Dead cat bounce. Fact is, unemployment will rise (historically when rates are raised, unemployment follows). Payrolls for those with overinflated Covid payroll offers will be cut back down.

People are running out of money. PPP money has been spent, EIDL loans are now coming due. ERC credits are still getting paid out, and some companies are raking in huge on those ERC credits. But it’s all running out and the party is almost over. Grab a hat

Dead cat bounce off of what? A 10% pullback in prices after a 40% increase?

They markets are off their highs like 10%.

It’s just home buying season. People start moving as winter ends. We are gonna start loosing jobs at some point. It hasn’t happened yet.

 

[bonesfab]

We are barely in the first inning of this shit show that is about to go down. Uncharted waters in uncharted times.

 

[EmpirE231]

Dead cat bounce off of what? A 10% pullback in prices after a 40% increase?

They markets are off their highs like 10%.

It’s just home buying season. People start moving as winter ends. We are gonna start loosing jobs at some point. It hasn’t happened yet.

10% lol… which markets are you watching?

 

[hallett21]

10% lol… which markets are you watching?

In our area it’s less than that.

Are you seeing more than a 10% pullback?

 

[NicPaus]

10% lol… which markets are you watching?

I watch the Southbay. Torrance, Redondo, Palos Verdes, Rancho Palos Verdes, Lomita, harbor city, harbor gateway. None are close to pre covid. Like mentioned 10% less if that than last year's highs.