For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[RiverDave]

88 pages and six months.. I'm still not sure anybody has put up anything that could be considered "correct"..

Honestly C Dog's information he has put out there I have found the most interesting, and he's a RE Agent.. The same people both the pessimist and the optimists say not to listen too.. LOL

RD

 

[Cole Trickle]

Built in 2006

View attachment 1195046

Maybe they refinanced everything out of it over the last couple years. Seems hard to be at a point where you don't walk with a chunk after all the years.

Could still be equity but people do all sorts of un smart financial things when stuff goes bad.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Normally you know that before you move there....at least I would... If laws change while you live there to allow them... I totally get it. It just seems very California for folks to move to a very loosely governed place and all the sudden want to impose restrictions... I would rather have an STR kept nice next to me then a Meth-ican (This is not directed in anyway towards brown people (read METH))...who's landscaping can be mistaken for a yard sale...

@Cole Trickle is more talking to the point that he moved to an area that has a lot of tourism… so he did essentially what you are saying. I don’t think he necessarily is advocating for more regulations. He is just wanting to move to a place that the current regs align with his desired outcomes.

 

[Cole Trickle]

Normally you know that before you move there....at least I would... If laws change while you live there to allow them... I totally get it. It just seems very California for folks to move to a very loosely governed place and all the sudden want to impose restrictions... I would rather have an STR kept nice next to me then a Meth-ican (This is not directed in anyway towards brown people (read METH))...who's landscaping can be mistaken for a yard sale...

There was no regulation because STR wasn't really a thing aside from the beach or vacation spots until recently. Now everyone and there mom is a a business tycoon so things need to be done.

If i moved next to a STR without doing my due diligence that's on me. But if I have lived somewhere for 10 years and I'm trying to raise a family next door to a party pad that's where it would be an issue. I would imagine for the most part it wouldn't be a big deal in a nice area until is is.

Out here there are designated areas where its set for STR and you can't live there full time.

 

[Dalton]

There was no regulation because STR wasn't really a thing aside from the beach or vacation spots until recently. Now everyone and there mom is a a business tycoon so things need to be done.

If i moved next to a STR without doing my due diligence that's on me. But if I have lived somewhere for 10 years and I'm trying to raise a family next door to a party pad that's where it would be an issue. I would imagine for the most part it wouldn't be a big deal in a nice area until is is.

Out here there are designated areas where its set for STR and you can't live there full time.

I predict STR’s are gonna fall off, even on a long term rental the rent needs to be near twice the mortgage, on a STR even more. People that got into airBNB will be turned off to REI for years

 

[mbrown2]

I predict STR’s are gonna fall off, even on a long term rental the rent needs to be near twice the mortgage, on a STR even more. People that got into airBNB will be turned off to REI for years

Twice the mortgage...who is your financial guy? . ....In all seriousness...I do believe they will fall if people are heavily leveraged...As unemployment rises discretionary spending will contract so STR's, Primary Homes, Vacation homes will be impacted...

 

[Havasu blue label]

Panic sale?..... Bought with a shit rate thinking they would make an easy 100k and now that the market is falling I imagine renting it out won't pencil at 6.5%+.

Hard to say weird timeline for sure.

There heloc on there primary home double

 

[DRYHEAT]

Grandma must have some extra $$$ lying around to be able to walk from that loss.

If they put 20% down at 449k their balance would be 360k roughly so they’re just trying to get out of it

If it’s a retired couple, there’s a good chance they paid cash for the house, and if there was a death in the family, sometimes you just want to get the fuck out of there at all cost. Money is not everything at that stage of the game, I’ve seen it happen a few times. Who knows for sure, but yeah, I wouldn’t want to take that loss either.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

10yr treasury dropping like a rock. It should help the housing market out a little more.

 

[Orange Juice]

We're definitely seeing the prices off their peaks here in Scottsdale/Phoenix but not a crash. Seems more likely the peak pricing was pie in the sky. Fools were paying that.

But now it's more fundamental buyers that need a home and are shopping for the right one. In the 1-2 million dollar range 2-300k price reduction before a buyer steps up is common. So you have to ask yourself if the inflated price was ever really the market or just a 1 or 2 property fluke based off of scarcity.

In the sub 600k market we're seeing 10-15% reductions off of the peak before buyers have interest. This market is affected the most since homes are more utility verses luxury features and buyers have less elasticity in their budgets.

Good news is we're starting to see the new agents that don't have much to offer drop. Sure they got lucky in the hot market but 2 years of less volume is taking its toll on those with less experience and limited value. Before you work with an agent. Look up their experience in the state department of real estate site. Licensed Brokers have more experience than sales agents in most cases.

On the commercial side I'm seeing a lot of cap rate deals that are not very attractive when you can make 1% less with the bank. Drive thru restaurants continue to be in high demand and permitting and construction is still slow and more expensive compared to 2019. So the reality of waiting on unknowns and opportunity cost is driving inflation here too.

Employment is strong and there are areas with massive corporate campuses being built that will drive demand in the coming years. This rate increase period might be looked back on 1-2 years from now as a blip in the radar.

In SoCal/OC people like Steven Thomas are on record saying no crash and the worst of the rate shock is behind us. I know my dad has several people hounding him to sell his home in Anaheim Hills for 2-300k more than Zillow says it's worth.

I've mentioned it before but we're in the peak of the wealthiest generation on earth retiring. They're sparking inflation by consuming what they want before they die. Barrett Jackson last week is a great example. Stats show their employment has been hard to fill once they leave sparking even more inflation. It appears more than likely we're not in for a crash landing but turbulence until we get into cleaner air.


Hearing a lot of "Marry the house, date the rate."

5 year Adjustable rates.
This is a perfect time to use one, if you see the right house on the right lot.

 

[Cole Trickle]

5 year Adjustable rates.
This is a perfect time to use one, if you see the right house on the right lot.

I remember that talk in 2006....lol

 

[Orange Juice]

There was no regulation because STR wasn't really a thing aside from the beach or vacation spots until recently. Now everyone and there mom is a a business tycoon so things need to be done.

If i moved next to a STR without doing my due diligence that's on me. But if I have lived somewhere for 10 years and I'm trying to raise a family next door to a party pad that's where it would be an issue. I would imagine for the most part it wouldn't be a big deal in a nice area until is is.

Out here there are designated areas where its set for STR and you can't live there full time.

When this pad hits the point I can rent it out for $10k a month, I know I’m living in the wrong neighborhood, and would do as others, and rent it out. I’m not going to fight a good thing.

 

[hallett21]

I remember that talk in 2006....lol

Right now they don’t even seem that attractive? They’re within spitting distance of a 30 year conventional based on a quick google search

 

[Cdog]

5 year Adjustable rates.
This is a perfect time to use one, if you see the right house on the right lot.

APR's are higher on the shorter term loans.

 

[Orange Juice]

APR's are higher on the shorter term loans.

See what I know about current financing options.

I was hoping to see the 2yr t-bill above 4.5%.

 

[LuauLounge]

Is there much seller financing going on? I've got 1.5 to 2.5 places to sell in the next year and am tossing the idea around.

 

[THE WIDGE]

Has STR been discussed recently at city council meetings since this new bill and laws are in effect? I think many STR are run fine like many on here and used by respectful families on here. But on the other hand, there are several in some amazing neighborhoods that get out of hand (6 plus cars, 20 plus people , loud music, ect). And really not much regulation or $ penalties in the past, and Calling the cops was a short term fix. Now that laws are in play, licenses can be suspended, time will tell after a summer or two to see what city politics do. Big Bear was quiet divided in this past election with a proposed ballot measure.

 

[Boatymcboatface]

That’s one of the nice things about living in city that doesn’t allow STRs. Don’t have to worry about that crap.

 

[Flatsix66]

Vehicle sales are still strong:

 

[RiverDave]

Is there much seller financing going on? I've got 1.5 to 2.5 places to sell in the next year and am tossing the idea around.

In Havasu there is some of that. We have a couple of people that will carry on properties.

RD

 

[RiverDave]

Has STR been discussed recently at city council meetings since this new bill and laws are in effect? I think many STR are run fine like many on here and used by respectful families on here. But on the other hand, there are several in some amazing neighborhoods that get out of hand (6 plus cars, 20 plus people , loud music, ect). And really not much regulation or $ penalties in the past, and Calling the cops was a short term fix. Now that laws are in play, licenses can be suspended, time will tell after a summer or two to see what city politics do. Big Bear was quiet divided in this past election with a proposed ballot measure.

We have five on our street, but I have never had a problem with any of them.. I can tell you reading Tommy's story literally sent shivers up my spine.. I'd go crazy if I had to deal with that. I'm a little curious as to why he doesn't just move.

RD

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Non Farm Payrolls in at 517k vs 185k forecast and last month revised to 260k.


Everyone is calling BS on the numbers. Even the pundits on CNBC are saying it's bogus, without directly saying it. Conspiracy theories running rampant and treasuries/MBS are getting crushed.

 

[c_land]

Non Farm Payrolls in at 517k vs 185k forecast and last month revised to 260k.


Everyone is calling BS on the numbers. Even the pundits on CNBC are saying it's bogus, without directly saying it. Conspiracy theories running rampant and treasuries/MBS are getting crushed.

Lowest unemployment rate since 1969!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1621503496116924418

 

[Gonefishin5555]

Non Farm Payrolls in at 517k vs 185k forecast and last month revised to 260k.


Everyone is calling BS on the numbers. Even the pundits on CNBC are saying it's bogus, without directly saying it. Conspiracy theories running rampant and treasuries/MBS are getting crushed.

Adp said only 106000 jobs were added. Someone failed statistics but the fed govt hired them anyway

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Lowest unemployment rate since 1969!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1621503496116924418

Surged “unexpectedly”

 

[yuppie]

517k jobs added last month.

How is real estate going to take a 20% hit when there still isn’t any inventory?

All these tech layoffs are nothing. They grew too fast and trimmed a tiny bit. Those engineers are getting re-hired right away. They’re not going into the unemployment line.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Lowest unemployment rate since 1969!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1621503496116924418

Serious question. How long between quitting a job to relocate and when you can't find a new job until you can take advantage of your unemployment benefits? If ever?

Angie is searching and applying for jobs every day and can't get hired. Even in entry-level, low-skilled roles, she can't get hired. These numbers seem BS to me.

A Masters Degree and a lifetime of work experience do not seem to get much.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Serious question. How long between quitting a job to relocate and when you can't find a new job until you can take advantage of your unemployment benefits? If ever?

Angie is searching and applying for jobs every day and can't get hired. Even in entry-level, low-skilled roles, she can't get hired. These numbers seem BS to me.

A Masters Degree and a lifetime of work experience do not seem to get much.

Are they looking at her experience and thinking she may bail for a better opportunity?

 

[RiverDave]

Serious question. How long between quitting a job to relocate and when you can't find a new job until you can take advantage of your unemployment benefits? If ever?

Angie is searching and applying for jobs every day and can't get hired. Even in entry-level, low-skilled roles, she can't get hired. These numbers seem BS to me.

A Masters Degree and a lifetime of work experience do not seem to get much.

As smart as she is I’d make room in my org for her

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Are they looking at her experience and thinking she may bail for a better opportunity?

My guess is yes to some degree; perhaps age plays a role.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

My guess is yes to some degree; perhaps age plays a role.

I could see that. I don’t mean that as a negative to her or her work ethic. But things get weird when you are overqualified or above a certain age/demographic.

I think she’d be an asset to any organization.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

As smart as she is I’d make room in my org for her

Dude, make it happen.

 

[HNL2LHC]

Dude, make it happen.

If you did you would not have to worry about speeding errors. Not bashing I am the worstest at spilling right behind Danimal out for a night of fun…..

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

If you did you would not have to worry about speeding errors. Not bashing I am the worstest at spilling right behind Danimal out for a night of fun…..

Bad spellers untie!

 

[pronstar]

Angie is searching and applying for jobs every day and can't get hired. Even in entry-level, low-skilled roles, she can't get hired. These numbers seem BS to me.

I agree, and we ain’t alone

 

[Sportin' Wood]

I agree, and we ain’t alone

SVM always seems to have good info. He can tend to be dry, but of all the guys I follow, he seems the most accurate.

 

[Dalton]

A few places have gone to pending around havasu, seeing what they actually sell for will be interesting

 

[Dalton]

2651 Cisco Dr S, Lake Havasu City, AZ 86403 | Zillow

2651 Cisco Dr S, Lake Havasu City AZ, is a Single Family home that contains 1164 sq ft and was built in 1979.It contains 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $398,400, which has decreased by $4,577 in the last 30 days.The Rent Zestimate for this Single Family is...

www.zillow.com

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

View attachment 1196771 View attachment 1196770

2651 Cisco Dr S, Lake Havasu City, AZ 86403 | Zillow

2651 Cisco Dr S, Lake Havasu City AZ, is a Single Family home that contains 1164 sq ft and was built in 1979.It contains 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $398,400, which has decreased by $4,577 in the last 30 days.The Rent Zestimate for this Single Family is...

www.zillow.com

And some people are still making a few bucks..

Bought for $305k in June 2022, remodeled to flip, put on the market 60 days later at $525k (LOL)

Finally sold last week for $425k.

3550 Palo Verde Blvd S, Lake Havasu City, AZ 86404 | Zillow

3550 Palo Verde Blvd S, Lake Havasu City AZ. The Zestimate for this property is $458,700, which has decreased by $4,652 in the last 30 days.The Rent Zestimate for this property is $1,707/mo, which has increased by $1,707/mo in the last 30 days.

www.zillow.com

Nice place for the new owners.

$425 is a huge number for an older 3/2 with a drop in pool on a main street. Still far above pre pandemic pricing.

 

[cofooter]

And some people are still making a few bucks..

Bought for $305k in June 2022, remodeled to flip, put on the market 60 days later at $525k (LOL)

Finally sold last week for $425k.

3550 Palo Verde Blvd S, Lake Havasu City, AZ 86404 | Zillow

3550 Palo Verde Blvd S, Lake Havasu City AZ. The Zestimate for this property is $458,700, which has decreased by $4,652 in the last 30 days.The Rent Zestimate for this property is $1,707/mo, which has increased by $1,707/mo in the last 30 days.

www.zillow.com

Huge number for an older 3/2 with a drop in pool on a main street.

Depends on what he spent remodeling, closing costs, financing for 8 mths, etc. Not a huge profit at the end of the day.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Depends on what he spent remodeling, closing costs, financing for 8 mths, etc. Not a huge profit at the end of the day.

It’s not. But people are still winning in this market even when timing was not on their side.

Nice stuff at the right price is still moving.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

Need to see before pictures to really know. It checks a few boxes like a nice finished garage and a pool. But not boat deep and the backyard doesn’t have any additional landscaping and also the street is a negative he did well to get what he got. I’m guessing he made about 40-50k but not bad for two months work if he really got it ready that fast.

It was bought for 20k over ask. The other cost is having capital tied up for 9 months can’t buy another until this one wells

 

[Havasu blue label]

And some people are still making a few bucks..

Bought for $305k in June 2022, remodeled to flip, put on the market 60 days later at $525k (LOL)

Finally sold last week for $425k.

3550 Palo Verde Blvd S, Lake Havasu City, AZ 86404 | Zillow

3550 Palo Verde Blvd S, Lake Havasu City AZ. The Zestimate for this property is $458,700, which has decreased by $4,652 in the last 30 days.The Rent Zestimate for this property is $1,707/mo, which has increased by $1,707/mo in the last 30 days.

www.zillow.com

Nice place for the new owners.

$425 is a huge number for an older 3/2 with a drop in pool on a main street. Still far above pre pandemic pricing.

What do you think the profit is

 

[Magic Mike]

My house went up $5000 on Zillow today, it’s like in the movie “The Big Short” when everything was completely FUBAR but prices weren’t dropping…

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

What do you think the profit is

More than parking it on the sidelines.

Maybe 20-$30K all said and done. Maybe $50K if the person was connected on the construction side and broker fees.

Maybe 0 if there was a giant hole in the foundation that had to be fixed

I think It would have moved at $450k last summer when they put it on the market.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Government Sachs changes their tune versus a week ago. Yesterday an article was published that said, "Government Sachs states that US housing prices are close to a bottom".

 

[yuppie]

JPOW speaking right now, all assets up only today.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

3430 Fiesta Dr, Lake Havasu City, AZ 86404 | Zillow

3430 Fiesta Dr, Lake Havasu City AZ, is a Single Family home that contains 1688 sq ft and was built in 1971.It contains 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms.This home last sold for $516,000 in October 2023. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $538,500, which has decreased by $3,887 in the last 30...

www.zillow.com

That one should go pretty quick.

 

[2Driver]

88 pages and six months.. I'm still not sure anybody has put up anything that could be considered "correct"..

Honestly C Dog's information he has put out there I have found the most interesting, and he's a RE Agent.. The same people both the pessimist and the optimists say not to listen too.. LOL

RD

Yep Cory’s data is always fact based from his involvement in the industry, not what he wants, just actual data.

LOL I can tell you my big Paradise Valley loan paid off last week and I have never slept better in my life. There are so many contradictory goods and bads in this economy Im not sure where its all going.

 

[yuppie]

We've been talking about this recession for so long it's probably over by now.