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For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

530RL

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Some keep talking about "Paid X (Low) and could have sold for Y (At the Highs) but now it is Z (Lower than Y but higher than X) but what about the hundreds of thousands that paid at the (Y Highs) and now are stuck with homes that were over paid for by tens of thousands even hundreds of thousands of dollars...prices going back down to Supposed pre covid or Supposed normal levels cause Every single person that Paid Y to have lost money on their investment IF they sold today and even more down the road. True if they want the house, keeping the house, living in the house and have no intention of selling then all is fine but that is not the case all around. As of Friday 63% of all earning Americans are living paycheck to paycheck...so once job loss increases we are going to see a larger drop in both home value and sales I am guessing within my original time frame.


Standard costs of a transaction for a median house is 6% commissions and 1% closing costs. That ignores any origination or rate buy-down points in the financing.

If the median price in California is 750,000, isn’t everyone down 52,500 bucks on day one? (7% times median price)

Assuming the purchase was a market purchase, Isn’t everyone who buys a house now underwater by tens of thousands the day they close?
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Standard costs of a transaction for a median house is 6% commissions and 1% closing costs. That ignores any origination or rate buy-down points in the financing.

If the median price in California is 750,000, isn’t everyone down 52,500 bucks on day one? (7% times median price)

Assuming the purchase was a market purchase, Isn’t everyone who buys a house now underwater by tens of thousands the day they close?

Indeed they are.
 

PaPaG

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Let’s actually talk about that. When do you see that happening?

I see it as 2 years minimum before we see a low point in prices.

As we’ve discussed, I don’t think people are going willingly exit their RE position this time. It is pretty much going to take a year to get people out of their houses (investment or primary) if they stop paying and we have not incurred what I would consider impactful job losses yet.
I had originally said roughly 18 months so another year we should be full steam into the drops compared to the peaks, but as things change and depending on jobs and the fed I can adjust my timeline, only an ill informed idiot would not be flexible with projection adjustments when it comes to financials. Also depends on areas, in Nevada you are out in 30-120 days if you stop paying, in Cali it can take a year or even longer...all depends on where and laws of the state. Once we see true job numbers the outcome will be much clearer.
 

PaPaG

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Standard costs of a transaction for a median house is 6% commissions and 1% closing costs. That ignores any origination or rate buy-down points in the financing.

If the median price in California is 750,000, isn’t everyone down 52,500 bucks on day one? (7% times median price)

Assuming the purchase was a market purchase, Isn’t everyone who buys a house now underwater by tens of thousands the day they close?
Some does not mean everyone. I would say if someone bought in a hot state at the crazy peaks where people were having bidding wars paying 50-60-70k higher than asking or comps I bet those prices have adjusted down an easy 5-10% from the peak.
 

PaPaG

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We bought a rental house in the peak back in 2005 and it went from $500k to $350k and stayed that way for a decade & rent was low. It was still a wash between the rent and tax write-offs so we just rode it out. Now it's almost paid off & worth $850k easily.

Point is, if you see an opportunity, take it for whatever your reasoning is. Don't stress if the market drops as long as you still have the same income & the house payment is fixed. I knew a ton of people in the 2008 crash who literally just dropped their keys off to the bank & went bankrupt just because the value of their house went down, yet nothing in their financial life changed. I never understood that reasoning.

We bought that rental house, which was in a great neighborhood & only 1/2 mile from us, figuring one of our kids might not be able to afford a house in the future. We have 2 boys & 2 rentals within a half mile of us in great neighborhoods. Looks like one boy might be needing one since there's not shit for inventory here in San Diego.

NOTE: The other house was our first & we kept it for the same reason when we moved. Bought for $155k & easily the same as the other $850k. Real estate ALWAYS goes up, even if it goes down. Same with the stock market.
It also works the other way around as well, bought a house and an investment property in 03, lost our asses in 08 but held onto them, bought a few more at the peak of the crash, waited it out while renting them all and living in the house, thankfully we were in a position of financial stability, watch the markets increase and thought hmm it is going to happen again so sold almost all our investment properties heading into the peak period this time round, then sold our main home at the what I felt was the total peak while we decided to keep our vacation home as our full time home. In my opinion when the market prices decrease to a point decided we could be a buyer of investment properties once again depending on all the factors.
 

Havasu blue label

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Standard costs of a transaction for a median house is 6% commissions and 1% closing costs. That ignores any origination or rate buy-down points in the financing.

If the median price in California is 750,000, isn’t everyone down 52,500 bucks on day one? (7% times median price)

Assuming the purchase was a market purchase, Isn’t everyone who buys a house now underwater by tens of thousands the day they close?
Not in certain parts of California havasu is dropping quick
 

zhandfull

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Standard costs of a transaction for a median house is 6% commissions and 1% closing costs. That ignores any origination or rate buy-down points in the financing.

If the median price in California is 750,000, isn’t everyone down 52,500 bucks on day one? (7% times median price)

Assuming the purchase was a market purchase, Isn’t everyone who buys a house now underwater by tens of thousands the day they close?
Typically the seller pays the realtor fees and maybe closing cost as well now days. So I wouldn’t necessarily agree a buyer would immediately be down 7% at purchase. At least on a home purchase.
 

DMF

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Typically the seller pays the realtor fees and maybe closing cost as well now days. So I wouldn’t necessarily agree a buyer would immediately be down 7% at purchase. At least on a home purchase.
I think they are saying that the buyer would no be a seller if they chose to sell the house immediately after the close of escrow. At that point, they could be down as much as 7%.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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I think they are saying that the buyer would no be a seller if they chose to sell the house immediately after the close of escrow. At that point, they could be down as much as 7%.

Tree’d me.
 
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mesquito_creek

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Standard costs of a transaction for a median house is 6% commissions and 1% closing costs. That ignores any origination or rate buy-down points in the financing.

If the median price in California is 750,000, isn’t everyone down 52,500 bucks on day one? (7% times median price)

Assuming the purchase was a market purchase, Isn’t everyone who buys a house now underwater by tens of thousands the day they close?

Finally someone said it… Plus if you happened to squeeze out 7% profit on day one of a purchase they would pay short term cap gains on the highest taxed last top line dollar of their income.
 

monkeyswrench

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Somewhat pertinent info, but may belong more in the "Car Debt" thread...

Up here we have two "repo" men. One of them lives here in Prescott Valley, the other in Prescott. The guy on my side of town has seen business "pick-up" the past month and a half.

This is also after talking with town employees. They have seen, on average, the past month three cars a week being "abandoned" in various parts of the town. The cars left are newer cars, but still used. Not junk by here standards, 2010 and newer.

I don't know how that correlates to the "free money" PPP stuff, or the rise in refi's, but it might? I did notice one of the contractors I do some work for stripped his wraps off of his newer trucks last week.
 

CarolynandBob

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Somewhat pertinent info, but may belong more in the "Car Debt" thread...

Up here we have two "repo" men. One of them lives here in Prescott Valley, the other in Prescott. The guy on my side of town has seen business "pick-up" the past month and a half.

This is also after talking with town employees. They have seen, on average, the past month three cars a week being "abandoned" in various parts of the town. The cars left are newer cars, but still used. Not junk by here standards, 2010 and newer.

I don't know how that correlates to the "free money" PPP stuff, or the rise in refi's, but it might? I did notice one of the contractors I do some work for stripped his wraps off of his newer trucks last week.

According to a car guy I listen to on the radio. Car repos are up 300%.
 

530RL

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Nobody accurately tallies delinquencies, repossessions or auto defaults. Just not a piece of data anyone will pay for.

They have certainly risen but not to historical highs.

Do they keep rising? Who knows but that has historically been tied to unemployment.



 

Nanu/Nanu

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Somewhat pertinent info, but may belong more in the "Car Debt" thread...

Up here we have two "repo" men. One of them lives here in Prescott Valley, the other in Prescott. The guy on my side of town has seen business "pick-up" the past month and a half.

This is also after talking with town employees. They have seen, on average, the past month three cars a week being "abandoned" in various parts of the town. The cars left are newer cars, but still used. Not junk by here standards, 2010 and newer.

I don't know how that correlates to the "free money" PPP stuff, or the rise in refi's, but it might? I did notice one of the contractors I do some work for stripped his wraps off of his newer trucks last week.
Probably to busy so he took the wraps off in hopes people would stop calling and he can go on vacation. 😂
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Yeah that's what is happening. This time of year is always terrible for home sales. Comparing anything using YoY, makes for good headlines but doesn't signal any cracks in the housing market right now.

Carry on.

Nevermind that inventory was at highs and prices were at lows in 2010. Oh and unemployment was 10%.

Every recession ends like 2009. They are all the same.
 

Orange Juice

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Nevermind that inventory was at highs and prices were at lows in 2010. Oh and unemployment was 10%.

Every recession ends like 2009. They are all the same.
For some of us, we’ll look into the fish bowl of a recession, from outside.

I grabbed a cabin in flagstaff in 2011, and paid cash. It was the only way to get deals done. Banks stopped loaning money.

Today, I think 20% down, will get most in home loan.

BTW, I’m still up 400% equity with the cabin, and it rents every weekend we’re not there. If prices go back down, I’m buying 4 more cabins on credit, and retiring.
 

Gonefishin5555

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I think a lot of people are harvesting their capital losses this month driving down the market. TSLA and Musk getting punched in the face right now. May want to start buying right after xmas to get the dead cat bounce effect. Real estate just seems like winter with inventory and activity really slow how long can people in this industry hold out? Find out next year.
 
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COCA COLA COWBOY

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It's going to be rough until we hit the big high of unemployment (unemployment hasn't even gone up significantly and Powell intends for it to do so) and near Powell's 2% inflation rate. However, it's always a good time to buy real estate if you're planning on holding 5 years or greater.

On a side note, mortgage applications are up in the month of December so that shows we may see a decent amount of sales in January, February and March.

I think the people that have Airbnb's will be impacted hard as I have friends/clients that are already starting to feel it. Rents are showing declining numbers as well.

San Diego County has 7 months worth of inventory! That is absolutely huge for us. To top it off, we don't even have that much inventory so in essence we don't have many homes for sale and what is for sale, isn't selling.

Inland Empire is much better, but they usually lag behind Los Angeles, San Diego and Orange County so it's predicted they will feel it in the next 6 months.

On another side note, my phone is ringing more from investors than anyone. Investors are taking this opportunity to buy properties below the highs, negotiate and ask seller to pay for rate buy downs....and it's working. Don't pay attention to list price as sellers are taking low offers like I have not seen in a decade and paying for huge interest rate buy downs.
 

Havasu blue label

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It's going to be rough until we hit the big high of unemployment (unemployment hasn't even gone up significantly and Powell intends for it to do so) and near Powell's 2% inflation rate. However, it's always a good time to buy real estate if you're planning on holding 5 years or greater.

On a side note, mortgage applications are up in the month of December so that shows we may see a decent amount of sales in January, February and March.

I think the people that have Airbnb's will be impacted hard as I have friends/clients that are already starting to feel it. Rents are showing declining numbers as well.

San Diego County has 7 months worth of inventory! That is absolutely huge for us. To top it off, we don't even have that much inventory so in essence we don't have many homes for sale and what is for sale, isn't selling.

Inland Empire is much better, but they usually lag behind Los Angeles, San Diego and Orange County so it's predicted they will feel it in the next 6 months.

On another side note, my phone is ringing more from investors than anyone. Investors are taking this opportunity to buy properties below the highs, negotiate and ask seller to pay for rate buy downs....and it's working. Don't pay attention to list price as sellers are taking low offers like I have not seen in a decade and paying for huge interest rate buy downs.
Correct great info
 

DWC

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I think a lot of people are harvesting their capital losses this month driving down the market. TSLA and Musk getting punched in the face right now. May want to start buying right after xmas to get the dead cat bounce effect. Real estate just seems like winter with inventory and activity really slow how long can people in this industry hold out? Find out next year.
Sounds like someone got their email😉
 

D19

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Standard costs of a transaction for a median house is 6% commissions and 1% closing costs. That ignores any origination or rate buy-down points in the financing.

If the median price in California is 750,000, isn’t everyone down 52,500 bucks on day one? (7% times median price)

Assuming the purchase was a market purchase, Isn’t everyone who buys a house now underwater by tens of thousands the day they close?

Those fees are debited from seller proceeds, not paid by the buyer.

I don't look at my primary residence as an investment. Investments make you money, liability takes money from your pocket. The key is to pay off your primary (reduce liability) and create security for yourself. Even better security is to buy some cash flow rentals, so you don't have to get a part time job at Walmart when you're 70 years old or get a reverse mortgage to pay your property taxes and misc. homeownership costs.

Real estate is about cashflow and security, not quick profits. The boardgame Monopoly teaches this.

There's a lot of opportunity in every market; high or low. Get out there and make it happen. There is NO money to be made on the internet talking about real estate LOL.

I strongly believe that regardless of what happens with the economy that the government is only going to make it more difficult in the future to own property. They want to own everything and have us all on the pay as you go plan. The millennials who think renting and freedom is cool are going to be in for a rude awakening someday.
 

HNL2LHC

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Interesting home that has been dropping the price. Now it is kind of where it should be but is that going to make it sale since it is a bid dated in design…..

 

Gonefishin5555

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Sounds like someone got their email😉
No I write my own shit. Home with the chinese flu this week so bored AF. I read the committee reports on trump's tax returns. 500 flow thru entities and 1 auditor
 

CarolynandBob

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I think a lot of people are harvesting their capital losses this month driving down the market. TSLA and Musk getting punched in the face right now. May want to start buying right after xmas to get the dead cat bounce effect. Real estate just seems like winter with inventory and activity really slow how long can people in this industry hold out? Find out next year.

It is funny how MSM headlines keep beating up Musk, because they don't like what he is doing at twitter, but a bunch of others are way down as well.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...e-investor-wealth-11671652315?mod=moremw_bomw
 

2Driver

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Interesting home that has been dropping the price. Now it is kind of where it should be but is that going to make it sale since it is a bid dated in design…..


I’ll never understand a realtor listing an ad then requiring you to sign up to their website to see the pictures. LOL let’s make it hard for customers to do business with us just to get their email address.

Been on the market 1/2 year and incremental 120k in price drops? LOL lake view lake view lake view….really.
 

RiverDave

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I’ll never understand a realtor listing an ad then requiring you to sign up to their website to see the pictures. LOL let’s make it hard for customers to do business with us just to get their email address.

Been on the market 1/2 year and incremental 120k in price drops? LOL lake view lake view lake view….really.

I don’t like it either but I see both sides of it
 

Dalton

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I’ll never understand a realtor listing an ad then requiring you to sign up to their website to see the pictures. LOL let’s make it hard for customers to do business with us just to get their email address.

Been on the market 1/2 year and incremental 120k in price drops? LOL lake view lake view lake view….really.

It can create a lead but most people will just search the address on Zillow and pull it up.

Sold for 390k in 2020, it’ll probably drop a little more and end up a breakeven deal for the seller.
 

ChumpChange

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Those fees are debited from seller proceeds, not paid by the buyer.

Correct but what he is referencing is the minute the transaction closes, you are now the seller. If you need to get out of the house immediately or in a neutral market, you just lost 7% of your money.
 

2Driver

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Numbers are down in Phx metro but so are new listings.

Right now new sales are out pacing new listings for December by 200 homes. Total inventory for sale has come down by over 3,000 by homes in the past 3 months.
 

HNL2LHC

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I’ll never understand a realtor listing an ad then requiring you to sign up to their website to see the pictures. LOL let’s make it hard for customers to do business with us just to get their email address.

Been on the market 1/2 year and incremental 120k in price drops? LOL lake view lake view lake view….really.

Sorry did not know that I grabbed it from a location that requires log in or you to find it another way. I will try to remember that the next time. I too do not that requirement and typically it turns me off.
 

Sportin' Wood

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I'm unsure if this helps anyone, but I will share it anyway.

This home lasted five days.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/21-Foothill-Ln-Plains-MT-59859/234723404_zpid/

We check specific markets twice a day. This one was interesting to us as a view of the current market. I felt the house was listed at a reasonable price; we liked it, but we thought it might go pretty quickly, and we did not want to deal with a home purchase during the holiday.

Now here are some details that we thought were important.
  • Plains is a small town, very rural. Very Republican.
  • There is very little tourism in this area.
  • The nearest airport at 1.5 hours away in Missoula, and big-box shopping, including Home Depot/Lowes also in Missoula.
  • The owner is 71 years old and the nearest family in Washington.
  • About an hour and a half to Flathead lake and about two hours to Lake PendOre Multiple smaller boat-sized lakes between those and two fantastic drift boat/raft fisheries.
  • Not much inventory in this area and not a lot of demand in this area. If you look around, you will see stuff that has been listed longer with few saves.
This property, however, racked up, saves very quickly. On the first day, it had about 100 saves. I found that pretty odd, being that the North is currently facing a biblical cold event, Plains is pretty remote, and it is the holiday season. I suspected shortly after the holiday, this would be sold, but five days raises questions for me.


I Beleive it was priced pretty well, and the seller was motivated; based on some forensics, my research partner and travel agent @angiebaby discovered. But I still can't put together how it went so fast. I know this is just one data point, but there is still money out there waiting for deals. I ran into a person who said he was just lowballing anything he found interesting and people were taking the offers.

We can't see the sales price history in Montana, but I would love to have the intel on how this house is transacted. Maybe we'll call the agent after the holiday and see if they will give us a clue.

Captain obvious here, I guess, but if a property is priced realistically, it seems they will sell. This home was one of the kind we looked for. A home that has been lived in for a while and not something a get-rich-quick DIY flipper thinks is worth $400 a square foot. I don't want to have to repaint over gray and remove a bunch of subway tiles.
 

RiverDave

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Numbers are down in Phx metro but so are new listings.

Right now new sales are out pacing new listings for December by 200 homes. Total inventory for sale has come down by over 3,000 by homes in the past 3 months.

Wouldn’t that be a sign in the positive direction?
 

2Driver

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Wouldn’t that be a sign in the positive direction?
Absolutely, or at least no immediate panic selling. Buyers went in half but thankfully listing did too. Things priced right are selling.

I think everyone took some big time off and were waiting to see where it was going. I know some of the flip guys are back buying in Phx because they are coming to me for loans and selling homes. IDK :)
 

NicPaus

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Absolutely, or at least no immediate panic selling. Buyers went in half but thankfully listing did too. Things priced right are selling.

I think everyone took some big time off and were waiting to see where it was going. I know some of the flip guys are back buying in Phx because they are coming to me for loans and selling homes. IDK :)
Good luck finding a flip in the Southbay. Realtor and my Cousin have been looking for months. Inventory is still low.

I am still working late and planning for a crash. Just in case work slows down.
 

Gonefishin5555

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I'm unsure if this helps anyone, but I will share it anyway.

This home lasted five days.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/21-Foothill-Ln-Plains-MT-59859/234723404_zpid/

We check specific markets twice a day. This one was interesting to us as a view of the current market. I felt the house was listed at a reasonable price; we liked it, but we thought it might go pretty quickly, and we did not want to deal with a home purchase during the holiday.

Now here are some details that we thought were important.
  • Plains is a small town, very rural. Very Republican.
  • There is very little tourism in this area.
  • The nearest airport at 1.5 hours away in Missoula, and big-box shopping, including Home Depot/Lowes also in Missoula.
  • The owner is 71 years old and the nearest family in Washington.
  • About an hour and a half to Flathead lake and about two hours to Lake PendOre Multiple smaller boat-sized lakes between those and two fantastic drift boat/raft fisheries.
  • Not much inventory in this area and not a lot of demand in this area. If you look around, you will see stuff that has been listed longer with few saves.
This property, however, racked up, saves very quickly. On the first day, it had about 100 saves. I found that pretty odd, being that the North is currently facing a biblical cold event, Plains is pretty remote, and it is the holiday season. I suspected shortly after the holiday, this would be sold, but five days raises questions for me.


I Beleive it was priced pretty well, and the seller was motivated; based on some forensics, my research partner and travel agent @angiebaby discovered. But I still can't put together how it went so fast. I know this is just one data point, but there is still money out there waiting for deals. I ran into a person who said he was just lowballing anything he found interesting and people were taking the offers.

We can't see the sales price history in Montana, but I would love to have the intel on how this house is transacted. Maybe we'll call the agent after the holiday and see if they will give us a clue.

Captain obvious here, I guess, but if a property is priced realistically, it seems they will sell. This home was one of the kind we looked for. A home that has been lived in for a while and not something a get-rich-quick DIY flipper thinks is worth $400 a square foot. I don't want to have to repaint over gray and remove a bunch of subway tiles.
scene right out of yellowstone if I wanted to retire and freeze my ass off in the middle of nowhere I would be interested.
 

Orange Juice

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Wouldn’t that be a sign in the positive direction?
Phoenix has all those winter events, that attract money.

Let’s start with spring training every year, and the Cub’s. The horse show’s, classic car auctions,

This year we added 2 weeks of Super Bowl fun. We built a Super Bowl stadium, so every 5 years or so, we get that bonus.

We also have 2 NASCAR races a year, that bookend our tourist season.

The best news is we are running out of water 💦 rights, so building is going to get expensive. 😉
 
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