For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[bilz]

All you guys ready to pounce on real estate as rentals, are you concerned about the dumbfuckishness that was pulled by state and local govts regarding rents and evictions. I think especially in ca, newscum and company may try some more bs.

 

[MK1MOD0]

There is no way I’ll be looking at residential rental properties in CA. No thank you. Commercial is still an option In CA, but not at current prices. Other states are much more friendly to landlords, and a much better option.

 

[Dan Lorenze]

Funny how California is being talked about in this thread when so many other markets are in much worse shape of being overvalued and primed for a correction outside of CA like Phoenix, SLC, Boise, Austin, Charlotte, Atlanta. Fort Myers, etc... Yet here we are talking about how CA is "fucked" lol. It looks like all the places Californians ran to are in for the biggest correction.. I know, now I'm being the dick and everyone is gonna get all offended... That's life

 

[Xring01]

All you guys ready to pounce on real estate as rentals, are you concerned about the dumbfuckishness that was pulled by state and local govts regarding rents and evictions. I think especially in ca, newscum and company may try some more bs.

There is no way I would even consider being a landlord in CA…
Libtards have proven they care more for the renters, than the property owners…
FUCK THAT…Way to much of a risk…
Crypto is less risky than that…

HA now I am cracking my self up again.

 

[MK1MOD0]

I just mentioned CA because I live in CA. We have sold much of our CA property off in the last 10 years. Some after developing them into malls, and other properties. not trying to bash. But CA is NOT friendly to business, or landlords. We are both. Just facts. There are better markets for both developers, and Landlords. Many are in red states.

 

[Englewood]

Except this time ~18% of the single-family homes are owned by institutional investors.

Where did you get this number?

I believe you misunderstood the stat. Per google: “According to a Redfin analysis, institutional investors purchased 18.2% of US homes in the third quarter of 2021.May 2, 2022”

Institutional investors own less than 1.5% of the market, and only about 0.2% of the country’s total housing stock (300,000 units).

It is 100% fake news that big mean corporations are buying all the available homes and keeping the average family from buying them. It’s just like the “shadow inventory” of 10yrs ago. All BS. There was never a “shadow inventory” and big mean corporations aren’t gonna come buy all the available houses.

In regards to layoffs, that is the low hanging fruit that was hired during the refi boom. Nothing substantial yet but I presume it is coming.

I think we give back the COVID gains. If that happens, some places are going to get hit much harder than others. Don’t put any value in my opinion. I have no real idea just like anyone else.

There is no way I’ll be looking at residential rental properties in CA. No thank you. Commercial is still an option In CA, but not at current prices. Other states are much more friendly to landlords, and a much better option.

I own a property management company in California and would never own rental property in California. I will never spend another dollar on real estate in California. No Flips, Rentals, STR, etc. The laws flat out handcuff the homeowner in every way possible. I look for real estate deals/opportunities every single day and I won’t consider ANYTHING in California.

 

[Xring01]

Funny how California is being talked about in this thread when so many other markets are in much worse shape of being overvalued and primed for a correction outside of CA like Phoenix, SLC, Boise, Austin, Charlotte, Atlanta. Fort Myers, etc... Yet here we are talking about how CA is "fucked" lol. It looks like all the places Californians ran to are in for the biggest correction.. I know, now I'm being the dick and everyone is gonna get all offended... That's life

To your point…
What is the average income in CA, versus the states your talking about.
Why am I bringing that up… because it bowls down to affordability… There are alot states that have lower incomes with the same cost of housing as CA or closer to it.. Which can lead to huge decline in those housing markets, if people can’t afford the house’s.

I can go into alot more details, but I think you get my point.

The problem that CA has… is Business’s are fleeing CA… thats a fact.
Ca population has gone down, the last several years, but the worst part of the population decline is the people who left, where paying a boat load of taxs… PLEASE ASK ME HOW I KNOW… hint hint.. left in Mar 22…

I think overall, California is on a downward spiral for lots of reasons. I am not saying its going to crash and burn overnight. I think its going to be long slow death spiral, until they change there business strategy, tax strategys and many other issues.

I lived in a Cul De Sac in Murrieta… I was the second one to leave the state.. Everyone of my neighbors has an exit plan, not one of those plans included staying in CA. NOT ONE… only one a firefighter would be there for 7 years, others where less than 5…

So as that spiral continues, and there are not enough business’s paying the wages to afford that Murrieta house… so its only gonna be Cops/Firefighters and Teachers, Utility peeps… Hummm then what happens to Temecula/ Wildomar and on and one… if all the good jobs people live in murrieta…. Catch my drift… There are only so many gov jobs to go around.

Ca has to attract business’s back into the state, or its going to be ugly.. Remember it bowls down to affordability overall, wages have to be in the same affordability of the housing market… If there are not enough business’s in CA to pay those wages, then people can no longer afford those highly priced homes. CA is not a business friendly state, just ask Elon Musk and many others who fled recently.

OHHH here is a fun fact for you… Lots of firefighters live in Murrieta area, and commute all over SoCal to there jobs.
On of my neighbors who lived just outside of my cul de sac.. Is the Union Rep for Temecula Fire Dept, he sold his home around Jan 2022 is.. And is literally commuting from ALABAMA, and working roughly 28 days and 28 days off… I also know of alot of FF who commute into SoCal from AZ, NV and even Idaho… so what does that tell you.. The FF refuse to live there, and that means there money is not being spent in CA… exported to the other states. Honestly If I was still a CA Tax payer… I would have a major problem with that.

But thats my opinion, I got the fuck out… For lots reasons, but I have Zero faith in CA or its stupid voters.

 

[Dan Lorenze]

I just mentioned CA because I live in CA. We have sold much of our CA property off in the last 10 years. Some after developing them into malls, and other properties. not trying to bash. But CA is NOT friendly to business, or landlords. We are both. Just facts. There are better markets for both developers, and Landlords. Many are in red states.

I totally agree

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Funny how California is being talked about in this thread when so many other markets are in much worse shape of being overvalued and primed for a correction outside of CA like Phoenix, SLC, Boise, Austin, Charlotte, Atlanta. Fort Myers, etc... Yet here we are talking about how CA is "fucked" lol. It looks like all the places Californians ran to are in for the biggest correction.. I know, now I'm being the dick and everyone is gonna get all offended... That's life

I hope yore right.

Ca is still fucked any way you look at it though, I know you will be offended, that is life.

 

[hallett21]

Sold in Aug 21 for 750…….

22025 San Miguel St, Woodland Hills, CA 91364 - 2 beds/1 bath

(CRISNet) For Sale: 2 beds, 1 bath ∙ 828 sq. ft. ∙ 22025 San Miguel St, Woodland Hills, CA 91364 ∙ $895,000 ∙ MLS# SR22137041 ∙ Incredible South of Ventura Blvd Move-in Ready Home with tons of upside potenti...

www.redfin.com

 

[FROGMAN524]

Where did you get this number?

I believe you misunderstood the stat. Per google: “According to a Redfin analysis, institutional investors purchased 18.2% of US homes in the third quarter of 2021.May 2, 2022”

Institutional investors own less than 1.5% of the market, and only about 0.2% of the country’s total housing stock (300,000 units).

It is 100% fake news that big mean corporations are buying all the available homes and keeping the average family from buying them. It’s just like the “shadow inventory” of 10yrs ago. All BS. There was never a “shadow inventory” and big mean corporations aren’t gonna come buy all the available houses.

In regards to layoffs, that is the low hanging fruit that was hired during the refi boom. Nothing substantial yet but I presume it is coming.

I think we give back the COVID gains. If that happens, some places are going to get hit much harder than others. Don’t put any value in my opinion. I have no real idea just like anyone else.


I own a property management company in California and would never own rental property in California. I will never spend another dollar on real estate in California. No Flips, Rentals, STR, etc. The laws flat out handcuff the homeowner in every way possible. I look for real estate deals/opportunities every single day and I won’t consider ANYTHING in California.

I read a few weeks ago that in the last year in the Phoenix area something like 38% of single family home sales have been to institutional investment companies that in turn flip or rent the homes. I believe that because I get calls, texts and letters daily and weekly asking if I want to sell my home to these people for 30% under market value.

 

[FROGMAN524]

Sounds like you know everything. I bet you are a scratch golfer too!

If the world doesn’t end and I live to be as old as you, maybe then I can Golf. Right now I have no time.

And, I don’t know everything but LOF does.

 

[Dan Lorenze]

I’ll be in town getting the boat worked on.. but now have a


I hope yore right..

Ca is still fucked any way you look at it though, I know you will be offended, that is life

Guys like you (and many on here) should be thanking California for all its done for you... You guys made California money, your homes doubled, tripled in value and you probably have a good pension.. It has allowed you to take your money to AZ, UT, TX and live comfortably... Shouldn't you just say "Thank you" for all the opportunities that California gave you? lol

California isn't gonna be the big loser with this correction.

And no, I'm not defending California's shit politics or lame ass voters.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Guys like you (and many on here) should be thanking California for all its done for you... You guys made California money, your homes doubled, tripled in value and you probably have a good pension.. It has allowed you to take your money to AZ, UT, TX and live comfortably... Shouldn't you just say "Thank you" for all the opportunities that California gave you? lol

California isn't gonna be the big loser with this correction.

And no, I'm not defending California's shit politics or lame ass voters.

CA should be thanking me for the excessive tax money I gave them for 20 of my working years and got little return on.

I have no pension.

I’m thankful for my time in CA but it’s still fucked.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

If the world doesn’t end and I live to be as old as you, maybe then I can Golf. Right now I have no time.

And, I don’t know everything but LOF does.

If you knew more you’d have more time

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I read a few weeks ago that in the last year in the Phoenix area something like 38% of single family home sales have been to institutional investment companies that in turn flip or rent the homes. I believe that because I get calls, texts and letters daily and weekly asking if I want to sell my home to these people for 30% under market value.

Why would you believe that 38% of people sell their homes for 30% under market value?

 

[Dan Lorenze]

CA should be thanking me for the excessive tax money I gave them for 20 of my working years and got little return on.

I have no pension.

I’m thankful for my time in CA but it’s still fucked.

You probably made a shit ton on that OC house of yours.. The extra taxes you paid was worth it, now you're all setup in UT with a mini jet boat. All thanks to California..

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

You probably made a shit ton on that OC house of yours.. The extra taxes you paid was worth it, now you're all setup in UT with a mini jet boat. All thanks to California..

You know what Mr. Obama, I think you are right, I didn't build that.

 

[Xring01]

You probably made a shit ton on that OC house of yours.. The extra taxes you paid was worth it, now you're all setup in UT with a mini jet boat. All thanks to California..

I hope your not under the assumption the same thing will happen over the next 15 -20 years…
If so, dont put all your eggs in the housing/rental basket, please diversify!…

Not every gets lucky in CA… My house in Murrieta that I paid $450k for in 2006, was worth, $225 in 2008…
Around 2019-2020, It finally got back to break even on the purchase price.
Yes, I did sell if for a profit in 2022… But I sold it for $645K… I made a bit…
Hell most people in Texas, SC, NC, and many other states would have made alot more…
Dont ever assume all Real Estate prints money in CA. It can bite you in the ass..

Ask me how I know… I was one of the few you didnt short sell, or BK and road it out… Think about that stress for 15 years… I was technically BK… I owed more than I was worth for many years. Why, because of CA real estate…

 

[Dan Lorenze]

You know what Mr. Obama, I think you are right, I didn't build that.

You're welcome...

 

[Havasu blue label]

Mr orange it’s Friday let’s go boating and have fun .shit dude all talk about is money relax and enjoy the lifestyle that we have today

 

[Magic Mike]

If you got a $20 bill put your hands up!!

All the haters, be quiet!!

Word!!

 

[Done-it-again]

Guys like you (and many on here) should be thanking California for all its done for you... You guys made California money, your homes doubled, tripled in value and you probably have a good pension.. It has allowed you to take your money to AZ, UT, TX and live comfortably... Shouldn't you just say "Thank you" for all the opportunities that California gave you? lol

California isn't gonna be the big loser with this correction.

And no, I'm not defending California's shit politics or lame ass voters.

You probably made a shit ton on that OC house of yours.. The extra taxes you paid was worth it, now you're all setup in UT with a mini jet boat. All thanks to California..

Why so upset with people selling their home in CA to moving out?

I'm sure you are old enough to remember that CA was the land of opportunity and a great place to work and live. As we all know those times have changed.

If I didn't buy my first house 20 yrs ago at 22 there is no way I could now being that age and what I as making....

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Why so upset with people selling their home in CA to moving out?

I'm sure you are old enough to remember that CA was the land of opportunity and a great place to work and live. As we all know those times have changed.

If I didn't buy my first house 20 yrs ago at 22 there is no way I could now being that age and what I as making....

Clearly you have only California to thank for your current status and wealth.

 

[was thatguy]

If anyone could please get the CA BoE to stop harassing me every year that’d be great!
It’s been about 8 years since I owned property there, (and no I never carried a “note” out of State regardless of what some believe), and at least 5-7 years since I itemized a federal return, and 3 years since I even lived there.
Yet I still get the BoE (or whatever they go by these days) notices every year.
And that god damned Camry late registration notice from CA is starting to piss me off as well!
I transferred that damn car to AZ almost 3 years ago, and traded it in over 2 1/2 years ago.

If anyone can make that stop I’ll thank ‘em!

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

If anyone could please get the CA BoE to stop harassing me every year that’d be great!
It’s been about 8 years since I owned property there, (and no I never carried a “note” out of State regardless of what some believe), and at least 5-7 years since I itemized a federal return, and 3 years since I even lived there.
Yet I still get the BoE (or whatever they go by these days) notices every year.
And that god damned Camry late registration notice from CA is starting to piss me off as well!
I transferred that damn car to AZ almost 3 years ago, and traded it in over 2 1/2 years ago.

If anyone can make that stop I’ll thank ‘em!

if you send a certified letter to the CA BoE and tell them you sent all the money you owe them to your black friends in the form of reparations, and provide cancelled checks, they will cease and desist.

 

[Ziggy]

It's a start! When it drops to the 45k range I'll be in lol

Yeah, but by then your $45k will only be worth $20k

 

[Havasu blue label]

California has done my family fine havasu is a investment and retirement portfolio and with this setback coming I might add to it

 

[Done-it-again]

Clearly you have only California to thank for your current status and wealth.

I guess...... I don't have a pension, don't work for the union. We pay the state $100k +yr in business taxes and for what.... Shit most of my jobs are out of CA anyways...

 

[Dan Lorenze]

Why so upset with people selling their home in CA to moving out?

I'm sure you are old enough to remember that CA was the land of opportunity and a great place to work and live. As we all know those times have changed.

If I didn't buy my first house 20 yrs ago at 22 there is no way I could now being that age and what I as making....

Not upset at all... I'm having a great time talking about this. Just wanted to voice my opinion that CA is not the place that's gonna be the big loser in this correction.

 

[RiverDave]

Exactly

I wonder why, if these geniuses have it figured out, they’re still posting on a boating forum and not on their 250’ Yacht in the Mediterranean.

Well there are a couple members on their yachts, posting on rdp.. so there’s that. Lol

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Not upset at all... I'm having a great time talking about this. Just wanted to voice my opinion that CA is not the place that's gonna be the big loser in this correction.

CA already is the big loser thanks to decades of inept leadership. No need to kick CA while its down.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

May new home sales out today.

There are just over 0.68 months of completed supply (red line). This is about half the normal level.

The inventory of new homes under construction is at 5.0 months (blue line) - well above the normal level. This elevated level of homes under construction is due to supply chain constraints. This is close to the record set in 1980.

And a record 115 thousand homes have not been started - about 2.0 months of supply (grey line) - almost double the normal level. Homebuilders are probably waiting to start some homes until they have a firmer grasp on prices and demand.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/06/may-new-home-sales-increase-over-5.html


Mortgage rates also appear to have found a ceiling and bounced down quite a bit. Almost a full point lower in rate this week vs. last.

$750K PP with 20% down and a 740+ FICO is at 5.625% with no points and no lender fee's. 1 point buydown gets it to 5.25%.

 

[Done-it-again]

Not upset at all... I'm having a great time talking about this. Just wanted to voice my opinion that CA is not the place that's gonna be the big loser in this correction.

Agreed, but do see home pricing coming down from the high. CA could see a 15% reduction but not as much as ID, AZ, TN and others. To many wealthy Oriental country's parking their money CA real estate

 

[Dan Lorenze]

Agreed, but do see home pricing coming down from the high. CA could see a 15% reduction but not as much as ID, AZ, TN and others. To many wealthy Oriental country's parking their money CA real estate

I agree with ya..

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

May new home sales out today.

There are just over 0.68 months of completed supply (red line). This is about half the normal level.

The inventory of new homes under construction is at 5.0 months (blue line) - well above the normal level. This elevated level of homes under construction is due to supply chain constraints. This is close to the record set in 1980.

And a record 115 thousand homes have not been started - about 2.0 months of supply (grey line) - almost double the normal level. Homebuilders are probably waiting to start some homes until they have a firmer grasp on prices and demand.

View attachment 1129325

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/06/may-new-home-sales-increase-over-5.html


Mortgage rates also appear to have found a ceiling and bounced down quite a bit. Almost a full point lower in rate this week vs. last.

$750K PP with 20% down and a 740+ FICO is at 5.625% with no points and no lender fee's. 1 point buydown gets it to 5.25%.

That is a pretty cool chart actually. The supply chain issues probably helped keep this from turning into a shit show of epic proportions

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Agreed, but do see home pricing coming down from the high. CA could see a 15% reduction but not as much as ID, AZ, TN and others. To many wealthy Oriental country's parking their money CA real estate

It is already down off the highs state and nation wide if you count the bidding wars.

 

[530RL]

May new home sales out today.

There are just over 0.68 months of completed supply (red line). This is about half the normal level.

The inventory of new homes under construction is at 5.0 months (blue line) - well above the normal level. This elevated level of homes under construction is due to supply chain constraints. This is close to the record set in 1980.

And a record 115 thousand homes have not been started - about 2.0 months of supply (grey line) - almost double the normal level. Homebuilders are probably waiting to start some homes until they have a firmer grasp on prices and demand.

View attachment 1129325

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/06/may-new-home-sales-increase-over-5.html


Mortgage rates also appear to have found a ceiling and bounced down quite a bit. Almost a full point lower in rate this week vs. last.

$750K PP with 20% down and a 740+ FICO is at 5.625% with no points and no lender fee's. 1 point buydown gets it to 5.25%.

Builders have pulled back on starts due to labor shortages, material shortages and the inability to replace entitled single family lots.

Profit is margin times volume. Might as well reduce volume and keep profits up when there is a shortage of everything necessary, especially entitled land.

 

[MSum661]

Official report:

FOR RELEASE AT 10:00 AM EDT, FRIDAY, JUNE 24, 2022
MONTHLY NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES, MAY 2022
Release Number: CB22‐106
June 24, 2022 ‐ The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly
announced the following new residential sales statistics for May 2022:

https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

Key takeaways:

1) The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of May was 444,000. This represents a supply of
7.7 months at the current sales rate.

2) New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in May 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 696,000, according to
estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 10.7 percent (±18.9 percent)* above the revised April rate of 629,000, but is 5.9 percent (±22.0 percent)*
below the May 2021 estimate of 740,000.

3) Sales Price
The median sales price of new houses sold in May 2022 was $449,000. The average sales price was $511,400.


The June report is scheduled for release on July 26, 2022.



Carry on

 

[Havasu blue label]

Well that’s good I don’t want any industry to slow down

 

[Havasu blue label]

Post pics of yachts

 

[JUSTWANNARACE]

That is a pretty cool chart actually. The supply chain issues probably helped keep this from turning into a shit show of epic proportions

Actually supply chain issues is what has drove the new construction prices up in the last couple years. Most kept moving forward as they are paying interest on the loans monthly so they had to keep moving.

 

[RiverDave]

Post pics of yachts

Most of them keep pretty private.. there was a featured eliminator build awhile back. The boat actually goes into a garage in a yacht so they had to make some adjustments to it to make it fit.. the members figured out which yacht it was when they saw the name embroidered on the upholstery.. lol

It spends its life in the Caribbean and surrounding areas.

 

[Havasu blue label]

That’s the life very cool

 

[havasuhusker]

My 27 year old son on the other hand is looking of a house but is content to see the shit hit the fan first.

My son is 24 and in the same situation.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Actually supply chain issues is what has drove the new construction prices up in the last couple years. Most kept moving forward as they are paying interest on the loans monthly so they had to keep moving.

Agreed as well.

 

[JUSTWANNARACE]

Agreed as well.

I watched people sign for houses with earnest $ before foundation and wouldnt get a price for the house they were buying, until lumber packs were dropped..

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I watched people sign for houses with earnest $ before foundation and wouldnt get a price for the house they were buying, until lumber packs were dropped..

That’s a little nuts!! I couldn’t handle that one lol

 

[FROGMAN524]

Why would you believe that 38% of people sell their homes for 30% under market value?

You tell me. You're the oracle.

Investors buying thousands of Phoenix-area homes as rent prices spike

Tenants say the result is rising rent prices, but economists say they’re not so sure investors are to blame.

www.azfamily.com

If they bought a home 2-5 years ago and have made 100-150%, a 30% cut still leaves them with a 70-100% gain in that short time period. It's still a deal if you're in a hurry to get out.

 

[FROGMAN524]

Most of them keep pretty private.. there was a featured eliminator build awhile back. The boat actually goes into a garage in a yacht so they had to make some adjustments to it to make it fit.. the members figured out which yacht it was when they saw the name embroidered on the upholstery.. lol

It spends its life in the Caribbean and surrounding areas.

The real ballers roll like this guy

Billionaire Bucket List: This 216-Foot-Long Luxury Support Catamaran Carries The Subs, Speedboats, Helicopters, ATV’s And Crew That Every Superyacht Owner Needs

Billionaire Bucket List: This 216-Foot-Long Luxury Support Catamaran Carries The Subs, Speedboats, Helicopters, ATV’s And Crew That Every Superyacht Owner Needs

www.forbes.com

Super yacht firm creates a 217ft-long luxury 'BACKUP boat'

The ultimate accessory for the mega-rich, the backup boat - which has been christened 'Hodor' - is an extravagant 217 feet (66 metres) -long catamaran with a max speed of 22.5 knots and a crew of 20.

www.dailymail.co.uk

or this guy

The ultimate companion for a billionaire's yacht - These support vessels are specially built to carry submarines and a host of other water toys. - Luxurylaunches

luxurylaunches.com